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**Detroit at Kansas City** (-4.5/52.5) Kickoff-Opening Night! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
Snoopy
Footballguy
3rd and 6thNow what did The Giants receive in the Toney trade?
Looks like highway robbery right now3rd and 6thNow what did The Giants receive in the Toney trade?
Traded one of the picks to acquire Darren Waller. Used the other to select Tre Hawkins.Looks like highway robbery right now3rd and 6thNow what did The Giants receive in the Toney trade?
What would something above or more than highway robbery be?
How many millions did the Giants pay Golladay?Now what did The Giants receive in the Toney trade?
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
My overreaction thoughts on the game.
Chiefs
1. Playcalling. The playcalling for the Chiefs was atrocious in short yardage situations.
2. WR. You have one job, catch the ball.
3. Defense. I thought the Chiefs D was pretty good tonight. You could see the Lions were trying to work Montgomery up the gut a lot with Jones being out, but the D held up pretty good. If the Chiefs lose at Jacksonville next week, Jones will be signed with a quickness.
Detroit
1. Offense. Enough with Montgomery, you have to get Gibbs more involved in the game plan. Overall, something just looked off about this offense.
2. DLine. I'm not sure that Detroit will be able to get consistent pressure rushing 4 guys. The line made some big plays when they needed it though.
3. Secondary, much improved, but the Chiefs still had guys running wide open and I think we're singing a different tune if the Chiefs have Kelce and the WRs didn't have so many drops. They're going to need the DLine to get more pressure so they don't have to cover for as long.
4. I think the Detroit D will finish in the high teens, which is a good improvement from dead last.
Chiefs
1. Playcalling. The playcalling for the Chiefs was atrocious in short yardage situations.
2. WR. You have one job, catch the ball.
3. Defense. I thought the Chiefs D was pretty good tonight. You could see the Lions were trying to work Montgomery up the gut a lot with Jones being out, but the D held up pretty good. If the Chiefs lose at Jacksonville next week, Jones will be signed with a quickness.
Detroit
1. Offense. Enough with Montgomery, you have to get Gibbs more involved in the game plan. Overall, something just looked off about this offense.
2. DLine. I'm not sure that Detroit will be able to get consistent pressure rushing 4 guys. The line made some big plays when they needed it though.
3. Secondary, much improved, but the Chiefs still had guys running wide open and I think we're singing a different tune if the Chiefs have Kelce and the WRs didn't have so many drops. They're going to need the DLine to get more pressure so they don't have to cover for as long.
4. I think the Detroit D will finish in the high teens, which is a good improvement from dead last.
What does that have to do with the Toney trade?How many millions did the Giants pay Golladay?Now what did The Giants receive in the Toney trade?
The exact same your comment about Giants compensation does for a player does. Toney for KC and Golladay for Detroit.What does that have to do with the Toney trade?How many millions did the Giants pay Golladay?Now what did The Giants receive in the Toney trade?
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
It's implied in the job title. It's hard to receive the ball without at some time possessing the ball.
Pretty spot on
The exact same your comment about Giants compensation does for a player does. Toney for KC and Golladay for DetroiWhat does that have to do with the Toney trade?How many millions did the Giants pay Golladay?Now what did The Giants receive in the Toney trade?
Golladay was a free agent signing. The Giants did not give any draft picks for him. If I get your drift here.The exact same your comment about Giants compensation does for a player does. Toney for KC and Golladay for Detroit.What does that have to do with the Toney trade?How many millions did the Giants pay Golladay?Now what did The Giants receive in the Toney trade?
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I think Kelce's absence showed how horrific the Chiefs WRs are now. Rice is a rookie and has the best chance of being good all year, but the rest are throwaways. I don't think the sky is falling in KC as their defense still played well without Chris Jones, and assuming Kelce is back and healthy soon, he'll be back to being unstoppable. Coasting to the number 1 seed won't be so easy, but I'd pump the brakes on thinking they are in trouble already.
Great win for the Lions. Goff didn't look great at times, yet they still won. The pick-6 was a gift from Toney, but their defense look improved. That 1-2 punch at RB will be nice all year.
Great win for the Lions. Goff didn't look great at times, yet they still won. The pick-6 was a gift from Toney, but their defense look improved. That 1-2 punch at RB will be nice all year.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yep, they lost by one point to a good team while missing their second and third best players. Things happen.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Yep. Detroit has a solid team and KC was missing two of their three best players. At kickoff, KC probably had something like a 60-65% chance of winning. This game occupied the 35-40% part of the distribution. NBD.
That said, things looked noticeably harder for the offense all night than what we're used to seeing from this team. I know nobody expected them to lose Kelce and carry on without missing a beat, but (a) they actually did lose Tyreek Hill and carry on without missing a beat so this is different, and (b) it just goes to show that the margin for error is lower for this team now. Kelce will be back and that will fix a lot of what went went wrong last night. At a minimum, Kelce will not let easy passes slip through his hands or generate ridiculous pick-sixes for the opposition, so there's that. In the future, they will probably let Mahomes try to win the game for them at clutch time instead of whatever they were doing last night. It's just nice to see that that this team can actually lose to a borderline-playoff NFC club at home.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I also don't think their WRs will remain this horrific all season. The Chiefs, like the Brady-era Pats, have the luxury of taking the first couple weeks of the season to figure things out, knowing that #15 will never let them fall off too much. Whether it takes a trade, or just the young guys getting more comfortable in the offense and giving up the practice of slathering their hands in butter before each game, I assume Reid and Mahomes will eventually right the ship
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
By the way, I think the low-key turning point of the game came on the last KC scoring drive. They seemed to be marching down the field, and I remember thinking that this was the moment when they put the Lions away by scoring to go up 10. But Detroit stopped them on 3rd down, Reid made the possibly questionable decision to kick the FG on 4th and 2, and the Lions were able to keep it a one-score game. From that point on pretty much everything went Detroit's way
A bigger concern is the pressure and hits on Mahomes, often from just 4. And the number of rushing attempts when nobody was open.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Good win for the Lions. One that could propel them to a magical season. I really like that team and what they have built there. The Lions fans really deserve this.
Now, some random observations:
1. Andy Reid, for as smart as he is, is an absolute moron on third and short. For those that don't watch the Chiefs a lot, he has called that Blake Bell QB sneak play over and over and over for the last few years and it NEVER works. As soon as a saw Bell under center I looked and my kids and said: this isn't gonna work. For me, THAT play was the biggest one of the game.
The Chiefs were starting to pound the ball in the 4th quarter. CEH gets a good run on first down. 2nd and two. Reid then calls that stupid jet sweep to Toney for no gain. And then doubles down on the Blake Bell play. If Reid just pounds it with CEH for two plays I believe they get the first down and keeps the drive alive. A TD there ends this game, imo. Just stupid by Reid.
2. The Chiefs D more than held their own against a good Lions offense. Was impressed with what I saw there.
3. I don't know how Campbell even walks around with those enormous balls of his. The fake punt on the 17 was a great call.
4. Our right tackle false started about 40 times last night. After he was in an illegal formation.
5. Dropped passes - sheesh.
Overall, I thought that game was kind of a total turd. One of those games where the winning team feels like they escaped with one and where the losing team feels like they gave one away. I think this is the case no matter who won it.
But, the Lions deserved it. They came into Arrowhead and validated the hype. A win is a win is a win. I'm looking forward to seeing how they progress from here.
Have a good year, Lions fans.
Now, some random observations:
1. Andy Reid, for as smart as he is, is an absolute moron on third and short. For those that don't watch the Chiefs a lot, he has called that Blake Bell QB sneak play over and over and over for the last few years and it NEVER works. As soon as a saw Bell under center I looked and my kids and said: this isn't gonna work. For me, THAT play was the biggest one of the game.
The Chiefs were starting to pound the ball in the 4th quarter. CEH gets a good run on first down. 2nd and two. Reid then calls that stupid jet sweep to Toney for no gain. And then doubles down on the Blake Bell play. If Reid just pounds it with CEH for two plays I believe they get the first down and keeps the drive alive. A TD there ends this game, imo. Just stupid by Reid.
2. The Chiefs D more than held their own against a good Lions offense. Was impressed with what I saw there.
3. I don't know how Campbell even walks around with those enormous balls of his. The fake punt on the 17 was a great call.
4. Our right tackle false started about 40 times last night. After he was in an illegal formation.
5. Dropped passes - sheesh.
Overall, I thought that game was kind of a total turd. One of those games where the winning team feels like they escaped with one and where the losing team feels like they gave one away. I think this is the case no matter who won it.
But, the Lions deserved it. They came into Arrowhead and validated the hype. A win is a win is a win. I'm looking forward to seeing how they progress from here.
Have a good year, Lions fans.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Good win for the Lions. One that could propel them to a magical season. I really like that team and what they have built there. The Lions fans really deserve this.
But, the Lions deserved it. They came into Arrowhead and validated the hype. A win is a win is a win. I'm looking forward to seeing how they progress from here.
Have a good year, Lions fans.
thank you brother man
would love a rematch in February
(relax everyone...it's a joke, we have metric ton of sheet to clean up from last night)
fuzzy_dunlop
Footballguy
I'll take this over the alternative every day of the week
jabarony
Footballguy
it’s a bit less impressive considering they spent a 1st on him.Looks like highway robbery right now3rd and 6thNow what did The Giants receive in the Toney trade?
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Yeah, what I said above, the short yardage play calling was atrocious. On 2nd and 1 they give the ball to Toney on a run? He gets stopped for a loss of 1 yard. WTH was that play call. On 2nd & 1 you either run it up the gut and move the chains or you "take a shot" downfield and then on 3rd & 1, you run it up the gut and move the chains. The Chiefs tried to get too cute on short yardage all night. Get the first and keep driving.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Serious question that didn't occur to me last night. How come the official sitting in New York didn't call this crew and tell them that the league was being publicly humiliated by their failure to look at KC's OL alignment and constant false starts? It's been a while since I've watched a game where one player was openly committing multiple penalties on practically every snap, the announcers and the entire internet called it out throughout the game, and the officials seemed to be the only people who didn't know this was happening.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Agree. This is the kind of thing that makes you wonder about the integrity of the league.
In my house we noticed this on the very first snap and were like: "that's a false start." And it just kept happening over and over and over. It's poetic justice they finally called it at the end, but even THAT call I was like:
"Now you call it?"
(and it was absolutely the right call)I'm sure Detroit fans were screaming at the TV all night. The NFL really has a way of making their sport icky at times.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
They didn't call it until the Chiefs' final drive. I wonder if word had gotten to them by that point.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Agree. This is the kind of thing that makes you wonder about the integrity of the league.
In my house we noticed this on the very first snap and were like: "that's a false start." And it just kept happening over and over and over. It's poetic justice they finally called it at the end, but even THAT call I was like:
"Now you call it?"
I'm sure Detroit fans were screaming at the TV all night. The NFL really has a way of making their sport icky at times.
Actually, he’s allowed to move his back foot. That’s the rule. His technique (he did it in Detroit last year [when he was with JAX], Hutch destroyed him) is to utilize his back foot as a metronome to time the snap. That part is legal.
Front foot, false start. Scroll up for the Tweet from Duke Manyweather (OL guru who has worked with several pro bowlers including Penei.)
Mistiming it? That’s not allowed.
Lining up that off the RG? His helmet should be even with the belts one of the center. Those went uncalled, too often.
But the technique is within the rules. Back foot can move.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Also, repeating my earlier point
Good chance Detroit chose to NOT complain. Juwaan Taylor was telegraphing pass plays. When it was a run he lined up even with the RG. No issue.
don’t get me started on holding non-calls
That officiating crew calls like half as many penalties as league average (exaggerating but it’s significantly less.) Detroit was aware of that going in, you just adjust.
Good chance Detroit chose to NOT complain. Juwaan Taylor was telegraphing pass plays. When it was a run he lined up even with the RG. No issue.
don’t get me started on holding non-calls
That officiating crew calls like half as many penalties as league average (exaggerating but it’s significantly less.) Detroit was aware of that going in, you just adjust.
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KC already won the trade with the Super Bowl punt return and TDLooks like highway robbery right now3rd and 6thNow what did The Giants receive in the Toney trade?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
KC already won the trade with the Super Bowl punt return and TDLooks like highway robbery right now3rd and 6thNow what did The Giants receive in the Toney trade?
There you go
Rams won the trade bc Stafford got them the ring. horrible last year and might be worse this year. don't matter, got that ring.
Detroit turned those picks into:
- QB Jared Goff
- CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (2021 3rd-round pick)
- WR Jameson Williams (2022 1st-round pick)
- DL Josh Paschal (2022 2nd-round pick)
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs (2023 1st-round pick)
- TE Sam LaPorta (2023 2nd-round pick)
- DT Brodric Martin (2023 3rd-round pick)
Did Detroit "win" the trade? No, but they accomplished a lot of goals for their complete tear-it-down rebuild, and there are still chapters to be written.
Toney....man....that was a rough night. Maybe he has more chapters in his story, but it's not looking good rn.
Yeah for sure. Good example with Det/LAR. Trades can def be win/win.KC already won the trade with the Super Bowl punt return and TDLooks like highway robbery right now3rd and 6thNow what did The Giants receive in the Toney trade?
There you go
Rams won the trade bc Stafford got them the ring. horrible last year and might be worse this year. don't matter, got that ring.
Detroit turned those picks into:
- QB Jared Goff
- CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (2021 3rd-round pick)
- WR Jameson Williams (2022 1st-round pick)
- DL Josh Paschal (2022 2nd-round pick)
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs (2023 1st-round pick)
- TE Sam LaPorta (2023 2nd-round pick)
- DT Brodric Martin (2023 3rd-round pick)
Did Detroit "win" the trade? No, but they accomplished a lot of goals for their complete tear-it-down rebuild, and there are still chapters to be written.
Toney....man....that was a rough night. Maybe he has more chapters in his story, but it's not looking good rn.
I imagine that Toney will bounce back as he pretty much has to. That was the worst WR game I can recall offhand. Moore also playing poorly probably exaggerates the hot take trains today. Maybe Pat's targets will morph more towards Rice and obviously Kelce once he is cleared.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Can we talk about the Chiefs going for it on 4th and 25?
My knee jerk reaction was that it was moronic. You’re backed up, got 3 timeouts and 2 minute warning still and it seemed desperate and distrusting of their defense.
Thinking more though, so what? The most important thing in that scenario is having the ball so you can score points.
If you punt, you do not have the ball and need a stop. A first down ends the game. If you go for it and don’t get it, you do not have the ball and need a stop. A first down ends the game.
So, same situation except you sacrifice 40 some yards of field position. But you have Mahomes. This is not the same calculation other teams have the luxury of making. I don’t think Reid much cared whether he would need 3 or 7 to win because he has full confidence in Mahomes. Either way you need a stop and have 2 minutes or so left to work with.
I’m not saying it was the RIGHT decision, but it’s way closer than I’m hearing about today. And I think Reid has long decided that since he has an all timer back there, he would rather lose with the ball in his hands than without.
Obviously, it didn’t work, but it also turned out to be their last chance at scoring points. More I think about it, more I agree with it. It’s not distrust of the defense, it’s massive amounts of trust in Mahomes. Ride or die with your guy. I get it.
My knee jerk reaction was that it was moronic. You’re backed up, got 3 timeouts and 2 minute warning still and it seemed desperate and distrusting of their defense.
Thinking more though, so what? The most important thing in that scenario is having the ball so you can score points.
If you punt, you do not have the ball and need a stop. A first down ends the game. If you go for it and don’t get it, you do not have the ball and need a stop. A first down ends the game.
So, same situation except you sacrifice 40 some yards of field position. But you have Mahomes. This is not the same calculation other teams have the luxury of making. I don’t think Reid much cared whether he would need 3 or 7 to win because he has full confidence in Mahomes. Either way you need a stop and have 2 minutes or so left to work with.
I’m not saying it was the RIGHT decision, but it’s way closer than I’m hearing about today. And I think Reid has long decided that since he has an all timer back there, he would rather lose with the ball in his hands than without.
Obviously, it didn’t work, but it also turned out to be their last chance at scoring points. More I think about it, more I agree with it. It’s not distrust of the defense, it’s massive amounts of trust in Mahomes. Ride or die with your guy. I get it.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Yes. It was.
At that point in the game the Lions O-line owned KC's D-line and Reid knew it. They were never getting the ball back.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Neat. Has absolutely nothing to do with game theory, which is what my post is about.
markrc99
Footballguy
Agree with the consensus that Detroit's pass rush wasn't very effective apart from Hutchinson. Worse & unlike KC's DL who couldn't get home & at least recognized when they were in Goff's passing lane, got a hand up to deflect or bat down a number of passes. The other thing was gap integrity, Mahomes seemed to have a two-way go on nearly every play. Those things are correctable.
But I also agree with a point made in the Toney thread (I think). That RT, Collingsworth was like, oh, yeah, he, even when he was in Tampa, he likes to worm around in the gray zone. If Detroit doesn't like it it's up to them to confront the officials & object. ... I was like, what did he just say? As if to imply, you don't go into a game expecting the officiating to be fair. What a complete schmucknecan! That RT's left foot is suppose to be on the LOS, it clearly wasn't. They showed him rocking in his stance, off early before the snap, what kind of a ****show was that? In the back I felt like there were several other passes they could've intercepted. For them going forward, seems more Josh Reynolds & less of Jones.
But I also agree with a point made in the Toney thread (I think). That RT, Collingsworth was like, oh, yeah, he, even when he was in Tampa, he likes to worm around in the gray zone. If Detroit doesn't like it it's up to them to confront the officials & object. ... I was like, what did he just say? As if to imply, you don't go into a game expecting the officiating to be fair. What a complete schmucknecan! That RT's left foot is suppose to be on the LOS, it clearly wasn't. They showed him rocking in his stance, off early before the snap, what kind of a ****show was that? In the back I felt like there were several other passes they could've intercepted. For them going forward, seems more Josh Reynolds & less of Jones.
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Unreal KC doesn't force him to fix it. False start or not, it's a dead giveaway as to pass or run.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Not sure what the numbers show (and the 4th Down Bot appears to be dead), but I suspect it's one of those things where their WP% was already like 2% and maybe this moved it a point in either direction. I probably wouldn't have made that call, especially with the way KC's WRs were playing, but I don't think it mattered a ton.
Meanwhile, Campbell made a couple calls I disagreed with, but the one I was proudest of, even if it didn't work out, was going for that 4th and 2 in an attempt to ice the game. It drives me nuts when teams willingly give the ball back to the other team -- especially when their opponent has a future HoF QB -- with a chance to win the game. We used to seen punts in situations like that all the time. It's not even really an analytics argument. It's just common sense that the Lions should do whatever they can to avoid giving the ball back to Mahomes
It was an OK move IMHO. Either way Detroit has to run the ball three times and get a first down to kill the game. What hurt KC is that they were unable to end the possession before the two minute warning which effectively cost them a TO.
Detroit's FG kicker is very suspect and does not have a long leg. Anything outside of 48 yards and they need to punt. Which means if Detroit did get into range, they probably could have run the clock out anyways.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Toney deleted his twitter account. I can't say i blame him when you see stuff like this:
https://twitter.com/SkolBros/status/1700177533029732772/photo/1
https://twitter.com/SkolBros/status/1700177533029732772/photo/1
belljr
Footballguy
that's good clean funnyThat was the Bears fan in me commenting. Lol
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Yeah agree about the two minute warning. Just checked the play by play and the clock was at 2:09 at the start of the play. That’s enough time for a deep shot, but not if forced to scramble around first.
He’s been getting blasted for it on local radio (DC market). I’d say it’s much more of a coin flip decision. Certainly not terrible.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
My objection to going for it on 4th and 25 was that in the time it took them to run that play, the clock ran down to 2:00. So lets say KC punts and proceeds to force a three-and-out (their only realistic path to victory at that point). They had three TOs. So they could get the ball back with something like 90 seconds left on the clock an no TOs. That's doable, especially for Mahomes. He scored twice against the Bills in that playoff game in less time than that.
But they would have been much better off to give the ball back to DET before the two minute warning. Then they can get the ball back and still have a TO, and they might survive a situation where Detroit gains a first down. I think having that TO in their back pocket is worth more than the very low chance of converting 4th and 25.
Would love to see a 4th down bot analysis of this one.
A play that deserves some kudos is Monty making his knee touch the ground before being forced out of bounce. This kept the clock running and enabled the victory formation with just one first down. Otherwise they would of had to get another first down.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I disagree. Obviously, it would have improved their WP% if the play had ended at 2:01 rather than 2:00. But you know what would have had far more impact? If they had converted the 4th down. That has to be the priority in that situation. If it takes an extra few seconds of scrambling to improve their chances of converting, I would choose that option every time. As it happened, they ended up with the worst of all possible worlds: no conversion, no extra clock stoppage. But I mostly just view that as bad luck that the play didn't finish a second earlier.
If your argument is that they should have punted because it would have allowed them to ensure the clock would stop before 2:00, that's far more reasonable. Like I said, I probably would have favored punting in that situation regardless, and the clock situation nudges it even further in that direction. But once they decided to go for it, they needed to do whatever it took to convert.
Also, if it had been 4th and 3 and they had run a slow-developing play instead of a quick out, that might have been grounds for criticism. But I doubt many NFL teams have a lot of quick-hit plays that can pick up 25 yards in obvious passing situations.
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