I will update this most weeks for the rest of the year. These are my opinions on 2011 fantasy rookies based on the assumption that they were drafted by teams using the Walter Football Mock draft (updated every Thursday). I play in a PPR Dynasty 12 man league, so my picks will have that slant on them.
http://walterfootball.com/draft2011.php
Fantasy Rookie Draft (rankings and comments by position below)
1. Ingram RB – NE
2. R Williams RB – GB
3. AJ Green WR – Car
4. J Baldwin WR - SD
5. J. Jones WR - Wash
6. M Floyd WR - Atlanta
7. A Luck QB – Buff
8. Leshoure RB – TB
9. Posey WR – St Louis
10. D Thomas RB – Denver
11. Vareen RB – NYG
12. Broyles WR – Cleveland
13. Mallet QB - Cinci
14. Locker QB – Seattle
15. D Murray RB – St Louis
2011 Rookie Mock rankings (based on Walter Football 2011 NFL Mock)
QB
Luck - Buffalo 1.01 NFL Mock Draft
This guy is a future stud and the most pro-ready of the QB’s this year. Getting drafted by Buffalo on first glance is a problem until you look at Fitzpatrick’s recent run. I could see him having a Bradford like 1st year, but it will take a couple years to be fantasy starter worthy.
Mallet – Cinci 1.07 NFL Mock Draft
He certainly has all of the physical skills and then some, but does have some red flags. Character and “smarts” are the big question, although the character is doesn’t bother me too much (Big Ben). In Cinci he would likely get to sit behind Palmer for a couple of years and I think that would be good for him. If he goes to a team that tries to start him too quick, I think it’s very possible he will struggle for years, if not his career.
Locker – Seattle 1.21 NFL Mock Draft
Love the physical skills, but hate what I see on the field way too often. He just isn’t that natural drop back QB the NFL prefers. The skills are there and maybe it will happen over time, but I doubt Seattle will want to be patient enough to leave him on the bench learning for two years. If they don’t I think the mini-bust (V Young style) is high. If he ever lives up to the potential…look out, as he does have the highest ceiling of this years QB’s.
C Ponder – SF 2.03 NFL Mock Draft
I don’t like this pick for SF. They need a QB, but not another mediocre one…they have enough of those. I think Ponder is journeyman QB and he will struggle in the pro game. He hasn’t had the type of season this year to suggest anything different.
P Delvin – Kansas City 3.23 NFL Mock Draft
Not a bad spot for a QB project. Is Delvin the next Flacco? The odds are against him and the Pro game is a big leap from Delaware, but the physical skills are there. I think it will take 3 yrs for him to develop (if he does). Can you afford to use a roster spot for 3 years?
RB
Ingram - New England 1.12 NFL Mock Draft
Ingram is a much better prospect than Mathews and he ends up in a similarly promising spot (NE vs SD). I could see him end up a top 14-18 RB as a rookie and have a long great career. I don’t see him as a future top 3 mega stud, but easily a top 6-7 for a number of years and the bust factor is very low.
R Williams – Green Bay 1.29 NFL Mock Draft
The situation couldn’t be better. Williams season has been a disaster this year and that concerns me, but I feel very comfortable in saying he is a better physical talent than Grant and Grant did very well in this offense. He might not have Grant’s power, but he is way more explosive and he also catches the ball out of the backfield very well. He could be a nice mid to low RB2 his rookie season.
M. Leshoure – Tampa Bay 2.14 NFL Mock Draft
Looks like a big, mediocre talent to me. He is a productive player that plays in a big time conference, so I can see him having a decent NFL career in the right situation. Is that situation TB? Maybe. Is he really an upgrade over Blount? Maybe, but not much IMO. In this situation I could see him as a low end RB2.
D Thomas - Denver 3.06 NFL Mock Draft
I really like D Thomas as an NFL player. He has the prototypical size and decent speed and quickness. He does run too tall, but he is still learning the RB position (originally a QB). When I watch him run, I can’t help but see a similar talent to A Foster or Grant. Certainly far from a physical stud, but a big powerful back that catches the ball well and could be a very effective 3 down back in the right system. I’m not sure Denver is that spot, but backing up Moreno (injury), isn’t the worst case, but it isn’t great either. Now put him in GB and I could see him as a RB2 with RB1 upside, by his second year.
S. Vareen – NY Giants 2.31 NFL Mock Draft
I like Vareen as a talent. I see him in the mold of a platoon back that shares the backfield with a bigger short yardage back. Vareen has good quickness and speed and catches the ball well out of the backfield. I don’t see a high ceiling, but a low end RB2 is within reach. That said, if he is drafted here, I think he sits behind Bradshaw for a couple of years.
D Murray – St Louis Rams 3.09 NFL Mock Draft
I’m not a big fan of Murray, but this is an interesting spot for him. He could play a 3rd down role behind Jackson for a few years and might actually fit nicely in a pass heavy offence. He catches the ball very well and is a very good back in space. He’ll never be a 3 down back, so stud is out of the question, but he could end up a decent RB3 in PPR.
N Devine – San Diego 3.21 NFL Mock Draft
D Sproles meet the next D Sproles? It looks that way…but. My concern is that Devine hasn’t caught the ball enough out of the backfield the last 2 years. He did have one game with 10 catches this year, so the ability seems to be there. If it isn’t, you are drafting a KR, because he won’t be a starting RB. Low end fantasy RB3 at best.
WR
AJ Green – Carolina 1.02 NFL Mock Draft
This is certainly not as good of a spot for Green to go to versus going to St.Louis (#1 for Bradford) or NE (replace Moss’s old role), but it doesn’t matter. He is one of the best WR prospects to come into the NFL in the last 10yrs. He isn’t quite Calvin in terms of being a physical freak, but he isn’t far off.
J Baldwin – San Diego 1.18 NFL Mock Draft
Vincent Jackson, meet the younger more talented version of your self. Baldwin will have to prove he can separate off the line and his 40 time will need to be sub 4.5 to warrant my current view, but I really like this kid in this spot….especially if VJax moves on to another team next year (I think he will). If M Floyd can do well in this offense…Baldwin could be a low end WR1 by year 2.
J. Jones – Washington 1.16 NFL Mock Draft
Julio goes to a team that he could start for as soon as mid-season his rookie year. He reminds me of TO a lot. The physical skills are all there, he just needs to work on concentration/hands, route running and of course reading pro defenses. I think it will take a couple of years, but I think he ends up a low end WR1/high end WR2 by year 3.
M Floyd – Atlanta 1.25 NFL Mock Draft
Floyd has the lowest upside of the top 4 WR’s but not by much. He also goes to a great situation to produce early. Ryan is a very good QB who will get even better with a “real” #2 WR, R White will keep defenses attention, and Gonzalez is showing his age so a decent number of targets could be there for Floyd in his rookie season.
Broyles – Cleveland 2.08 NFL Mock Draft
Broyles is hugely productive, but lacks the prototypical size to be a stud. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a stud, it just means the odds are lower. I see him becoming a nice #2 NFL WR and fantasy WR3. In the right offense he could be a better fantasy prospect, but I’m pretty sure Cleveland isn’t that offense…at least for several years.
D Posey – St Louis 2.09 NFL Mock Draft
I’m just not a Posey fan. I haven’t watched a lot of film so it maybe I just always see Ohio St WR’s as busts. What I have seen is a good sized WR that catches well with his hands, adjusts to the ball well and catches it in traffic, but the explosive talent just doesn’t seem to be there. Certainly any WR that has a chance to play with Bradford gets a boost in my ratings. A good combine would help as well.
Hankerson – KC 2.22 NFL Mock Draft
Decent talent and decent production are about all I can say. Is he better than Bowe…no. Will he have an NFL career..yes. Will he be more than a WR3 fantasy factor during his career, I doubt it.
A Pettis – Colts – 3.32 NFL Mock Draft
I don’t see the Colts making this pick, but if they do, it makes Pettis a potentially interesting player a couple of years from now. That said, Wayne would have to move along and Manning would have to still be as productive in 2013 for this to get anywhere close to a fantasy worthy situation.
TE
K. Rudolph – Buffalo 3.01 NFL Mock Draft
I see a big strong prototypical TE. I don’t see a fantasy stud. I would be surprised if Buffalo drafted him here, but if they do, I could see him starting day one. He will be a better NFL player than fantasy player.