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Dynasty owners what are you doing w/ your injured stud RBs? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eastwood
- Start date
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
I don't think Best qualifies as a "stud #1 RB," but in any event, I think you pretty much have to hold, because I can't see a situation where you'll get fair value.
squistion
Footballguy
Um, I own Peterson, it is not like the news of the injury is secret. The recovery time and how fully he will recover is unknown. What would I get for him at this point in time for a player many view as damaged goods? Considering he is now at fire sale prices, he is a hold.
Terpman22
Footballguy
As an owner of each of these guys in a few different leagues, its tough. I definitely think Charles and Best are both holds. I would probably keep Charles no matter what. Best, if offered the right deal for a high rookie pick, maybe, but otherwise, his upside is too high to sell low right now. AP might be a guy to get rid of now. It would take a high draft pick as well, but he is a lock to miss the first 6 weeks on PUP next year and maybe some more time. If you are a high powered dynasty team with some extra draft picks and good depth, AP might be a good buy-low candidate right now. I would say Best is in the best offense, who knows what the Chiefs will look like, but I suspect Orton might stay there ahead of Cassel. Minnesota is going to be a clusterf#%k and so is AP's knee. I am looking to sell AP.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
Owners of Charles aren't selling now. He is much more valuable going into next season. Tried to buy him on the slightly cheap early in the year to a guy who went from a favorite to an outside shot @ playoffs and was turned down. No reason to sell him if you've held him through a useless season.
Best... get out if you can. He is just not built for the pro game, and looks like he wasn't built for Div 1A either. Great physical ability, but can't hang with the big boys. I tried to offer Kevin Smith to the Best owner prior to playoffs and he countered trying to offer me Best for a mid/early 1st. Easy to turn that down. Don't know that I'd give anything inside of the top 12 rookie picks for him. He could end up as Sproles in a best case scenario IMO, but I think this concussion (a very serious one) on top of past concussions and other injuries is enough for me to say that he can't be counted on for more than a few weeks every season.
AD... I was trying to move him for McCoy in the league I owned him and was being too greedy asking for a bonus pick or player in return. Missed my window, and am just holding. He should still be a top 6 type RB for several more years, though you may suffer the 1st month of 2012 I am going to hold. No sense in selling a very good player for bargain basement prices. I have no faith in Minnesota providing a top offense to make Peterson a #1 FFB RB, but his floor is so high, even with the bad O and injury that I'm not willing to take anything less than a top 2 pick for him now. I'm sure that's asking too much for him, but tough.
Best... get out if you can. He is just not built for the pro game, and looks like he wasn't built for Div 1A either. Great physical ability, but can't hang with the big boys. I tried to offer Kevin Smith to the Best owner prior to playoffs and he countered trying to offer me Best for a mid/early 1st. Easy to turn that down. Don't know that I'd give anything inside of the top 12 rookie picks for him. He could end up as Sproles in a best case scenario IMO, but I think this concussion (a very serious one) on top of past concussions and other injuries is enough for me to say that he can't be counted on for more than a few weeks every season.
AD... I was trying to move him for McCoy in the league I owned him and was being too greedy asking for a bonus pick or player in return. Missed my window, and am just holding. He should still be a top 6 type RB for several more years, though you may suffer the 1st month of 2012 I am going to hold. No sense in selling a very good player for bargain basement prices. I have no faith in Minnesota providing a top offense to make Peterson a #1 FFB RB, but his floor is so high, even with the bad O and injury that I'm not willing to take anything less than a top 2 pick for him now. I'm sure that's asking too much for him, but tough.
Best should not even be in this conversation - DROP him
A) He is not very good
B) He has already been replaced by a Better Player (K. Smith)
C) The Lions will almost certainly be looking for their future RB this off-season
D) Best is one inevitable concussion away from retirement
AP - you have to bite the bullet for a year. If you are lucky you can get the 2nd half of next season out of him but probably at 70 - 80%. Hold or Trade
JC - Should be back at close to 80 - 90% by the start of next season - Hold
A) He is not very good
B) He has already been replaced by a Better Player (K. Smith)
C) The Lions will almost certainly be looking for their future RB this off-season
D) Best is one inevitable concussion away from retirement
AP - you have to bite the bullet for a year. If you are lucky you can get the 2nd half of next season out of him but probably at 70 - 80%. Hold or Trade
JC - Should be back at close to 80 - 90% by the start of next season - Hold
robb
Footballguy
Charles owner here. I kept him rostered all this year, so in my 2 running back keeper League I will keep him along with Rice. With KC passing game being improved in 2012, I see him as a 1/2 round pick in 2012.Detroit-they still have LeShore so Best is toast IMO.
Eastwood
Footballguy
What picks would it take for you to move
AP?
Charles?
Best?
I'm not going to try and move Charles. And I think even with AP's injury, I wouldn't move him unless it was a top 3 rookie pick? Best I'd probably want a mid 1st. Does that sound about right?
AP?
Charles?
Best?
I'm not going to try and move Charles. And I think even with AP's injury, I wouldn't move him unless it was a top 3 rookie pick? Best I'd probably want a mid 1st. Does that sound about right?
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Boone22
Footballguy
I own Kevin Smith in 2 Dynasty leagues. I have very little interest in Best. If someone offered him to me, about the "best" I'd be willing to part with would be an early 2nd round rookie pick. He's just got way too many unknowns to be worth a 1st round rookie pick. His injury history is troubling. The Lions drafted LeShoure to use in, at least, a RBBC with Best and now Kevin Smith is back in the picture. Who knows what will happen in 2012 with the Detroit running game and whether they end up with a clear #1 or a three-headed monster.As a Kevin Smith owner, I'm actually hoping he plays out the rest of this year and then looks at offers in the off-season (he just turned 25 and he's only signed to a 1 year deal). I'd love to see him consider alternatives like Cleveland, Cincinnati, St. Louis, or even Atlanta (Quizz is dynamic but he's not an every down back).
Andrew74
Footballguy
I had Best and Charles on one dynasty squad. Traded Charles and Gates away about mid season in a deal where I received Steven Jackson, high 2nd and a 2013 1st. Torn on the deal, but I owned Best in this league as well and was down to one serviceable RB on a contender.
Also just traded Best off for the 1.04 pick. Really hope to combine 1.04 and another 1st to get 1.01. Don't trust Best anymore and figured I wouldn't get a better deal.
I own Peterson in a keeper league. I have no idea what to do here. Probably wait to see how rehab goes and either grin and bear it or try to trade him to one of the Viking homers in the league.
Also just traded Best off for the 1.04 pick. Really hope to combine 1.04 and another 1st to get 1.01. Don't trust Best anymore and figured I wouldn't get a better deal.
I own Peterson in a keeper league. I have no idea what to do here. Probably wait to see how rehab goes and either grin and bear it or try to trade him to one of the Viking homers in the league.
That's ridiculous, no one in there right mind would give the 1.04 for best after his health issues. One more concussion and he's done. The top 4/5 picks are worth a ton more then Best.
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
Depending on roster sizes, the values in the rookie/FA draft diminish quickly. I probably won't even use my 1st in my dynasty league, unless I get creative with a package deal.
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
I had P. Manning going into this year, held onto him trying to get a fair deal, until I just outright released him; long term injuries are hard to manage with small rosters. My advice: be willing to deal before you paint yourself into a corner.
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dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Own Charles and Best in my dynasty league and I'm inclined to hold on to Charles. I'll be looking to move Best if the price is right (maybe a late 1stearly 2nd round pick if I can get it).
faulkfan
Footballguy
Now is this the same LeShore who has never played a down in the NFL due to ....wait for it...injury? I own the rights to LeShore, but if I was looking for a durable RB after suffering through Best's injuries I don't know if a guy who couldn't even make it through preseason is an obvious choice.'robb said:
Horses Mouth
Footballguy
I know how you feel. My team is in moirning right now.'noneother said:
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
IMO Best isn't worth a top 20 pick. Concussions kept him out in college, and now he's one more concussion away from retirement.
Peterson's value is bottoming out right now too. You have to assume he's going to miss the first half of 2012. Then you're getting a back that's maybe 70% for the remainder of the year on a bad team? If you're trading for him, your hoping hes a stud again in 2013, at which time he'll be 28 years old. I think he's currently worth a mid to late first. I'd rather take my chances with Richardson, Luck, RG3 or Blackmon at minimum.
Charles probably holds the most value because he'll probably be ready for the start of 2012, and he's still got youth on his side. I think I'd still hold my pick though if it was top 3.
Peterson's value is bottoming out right now too. You have to assume he's going to miss the first half of 2012. Then you're getting a back that's maybe 70% for the remainder of the year on a bad team? If you're trading for him, your hoping hes a stud again in 2013, at which time he'll be 28 years old. I think he's currently worth a mid to late first. I'd rather take my chances with Richardson, Luck, RG3 or Blackmon at minimum.
Charles probably holds the most value because he'll probably be ready for the start of 2012, and he's still got youth on his side. I think I'd still hold my pick though if it was top 3.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
IN a MOX league I own Peterson and Gerhart.
I was going to try and move the combo this offseason.
The injury makes me think I wont Max my value.
Probably just start Toby and hope ADP comes back strong
I was going to try and move the combo this offseason.
The injury makes me think I wont Max my value.
Probably just start Toby and hope ADP comes back strong
Tau837
Footballguy
I don't own AP, and I'm curious about the following:1. How he is valued for dynasty going forward and what it would take to get him in a trade at this point.2. What to expect from him next season... even if he starts the season on the PUP, is it reasonable to think he will play after that? How well could he be playing by the time of next season's fantasy playoffs?'Terpman22 said:
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
'BeTheMatch said:
I think you have to hold on Charles and Best.. But I think AP will hold his value and could still be moved for a fair price..
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'm in a horrible situation in that I have to move Peterson this offseason due to contract issues.
What are people thinking his value will be, let's say in terms of other RBs they'd trade away straight up for him?
At this point as a Peterson owner I'd take a top 3 rookie pick for him, though I doubt I'll get it.
What are people thinking his value will be, let's say in terms of other RBs they'd trade away straight up for him?
At this point as a Peterson owner I'd take a top 3 rookie pick for him, though I doubt I'll get it.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
I think he's worth a 1.3. I'd do it..
chickenlittle
Footballguy
How does McFadden compare to these guys mentioned. Anybody worried about long-term effects of lis franc?
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I'm sure ADP and Best owners would like to think they still hold a lot of value there. As a non owner, all I can say is you have severely damaged goods right now. If you can get a top 5 pick you should jump on it.
The next time ADP is healthy again will be 2013, at which point he'll be a 28 year old back with a repaired knee and high miles (He's over 2300 touches between college and pros).
Best may be a dynamic playmaker, but his concussion issues are so serious that I don't know why anybody would invest a quality pick in him at this point.
Think of it from the point of view of someone that holds a top 4 pick. You could add Trent Richardson, Justin Blackmon, Andrew Luck or RG3 to your team. Or you could add an older RB coming off major injury. After that top tier talent is taken, you could probably get a pick for ADP or Charles. Best wouldn't get a first or even a second rounder from me.
The next time ADP is healthy again will be 2013, at which point he'll be a 28 year old back with a repaired knee and high miles (He's over 2300 touches between college and pros).
Best may be a dynamic playmaker, but his concussion issues are so serious that I don't know why anybody would invest a quality pick in him at this point.
Think of it from the point of view of someone that holds a top 4 pick. You could add Trent Richardson, Justin Blackmon, Andrew Luck or RG3 to your team. Or you could add an older RB coming off major injury. After that top tier talent is taken, you could probably get a pick for ADP or Charles. Best wouldn't get a first or even a second rounder from me.
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
Not if I knew that the owner had to move him, I would grind him out. As far as Bagel's concerns: you got the use of ADP for a brunt of his usable life and when you have to move him he leaves as damaged goods; would you rather have him leave your team as a star, or do you have to squeeze every single drop of value out of him by trying for a king's ransom in a trade? I look at your situation as a good Karma one (not that ADP being injured is good Karma), leave some value for the next guy.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Peterson owners are in a tough spot for sure. He's unlikely to carry much value for 2012, so his appeal to a 2012 contender is probably minimal right now. In 2013, when he might be back close to 100%, he'll be 28 and starting the value nosedive due to age, so he has little appeal to a true rebuilder. I think he's a hold by necessity - if you want to deal him wait until there are some positive reports next year, or until a good team gets hit by key injuries and decides to reload.
Charles is younger, has way less mileage, and had a less severe injury that occurred early in the year. I'm a buyer on Charles if I'm in a position to roll the dice on his upside. I'd probably still take him in the 2nd round in a startup, depending on league setup and who else was available, obviously. I value rookie picks less than most, so I'd probably send 1.01 for him as well.
Best is clearly talented enough to be a top fantasy RB, particularly in PPR, but the fact that concussions have ended 2 of his last 3 years is a MASSIVE red flag. I wouldn't give up much at all for him.
Charles is younger, has way less mileage, and had a less severe injury that occurred early in the year. I'm a buyer on Charles if I'm in a position to roll the dice on his upside. I'd probably still take him in the 2nd round in a startup, depending on league setup and who else was available, obviously. I value rookie picks less than most, so I'd probably send 1.01 for him as well.
Best is clearly talented enough to be a top fantasy RB, particularly in PPR, but the fact that concussions have ended 2 of his last 3 years is a MASSIVE red flag. I wouldn't give up much at all for him.
The Captain
Footballguy
There is big risk with Best, but in PPR I think he still holds nice value. As an owner I won't deal him because I wont get anything in return, but I believe he'll be back next year and will be utilized more like a Sproles and I'll take that as my #2/3 RB in PPR. The Detroit backfield will look an awful lot like the Saints. Leshoure and Smith will play the Ingram/PT roles.
ADP I wouldn't give a top 5 pick unless my roster was stacked and I could afford him as a high upside luxury.
Charles' value should still be sky high. He's young, with low mileage and he'll have nearly an entire year to recover since the injury was so early in the year. He and Kenny Britt are great buys if you can get em.
ADP I wouldn't give a top 5 pick unless my roster was stacked and I could afford him as a high upside luxury.
Charles' value should still be sky high. He's young, with low mileage and he'll have nearly an entire year to recover since the injury was so early in the year. He and Kenny Britt are great buys if you can get em.
I just don't think Best will be use as much as he has been in the past. LeShoure is coming back from a major injury, but *if* he can get healthy I think they envision him in the between the tackles role with Best handling a smaller workload. Added to that is the potential that his career could end with his next concussion and he is someone I wouldn't want to depend on at all. I had Best in one league and ended up trading him before he was officially put on IR for what turned out to be the 2.03 pick. A couple of guys in the league thought I sold low and that may be true but I just don't want the bother of him on my team. I'd still sell him for a 2nd. Peterson and Charles I'd probably hold.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
A 1.3 rookie pick isn't a lot to pay really... Sure it's a lot compared to rookie picks, but the 1.3 = around a 3.6 - 4.6 in a start up draft. I expect AP will go somewhere around there in startups if not better..
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Not all years are created equal. Richardson looks to grade out as high as Peterson did when he came out. Luck is probably the most coveted QB coming out since Peyton Manning. When a handful of teams try to move up to the top 3 in the NFL draft to get RG3, his value is dynasty circles will be high too. Blackmon was likely a top 10 NFL draft pick last year. He'll likely go top 5 this year. That's an exceptional top end of the rookie draft this year.
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
Kit's post is closer to my feelings; the top 3-4 guys in the rookie draft hold some promise (isn't it always the case), after that those picks are crap shoots and I usually pick up an existing non-roster-ed 2nd or 3rd year guy.
Hoss_Cartwright
Footballguy
Dynasty league that allows a limited number of college (devy) players.• Team A gave up Turner, Michael ATL RB;* Floyd, Michael FA WR; Year 2012 Round 1 Draft Pick from Team C (1.7) • Team B gave up Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
Diamond One
Footballguy
Charles and Fred Jackson owner - holding on Charles, not quite sure with Jackson - Spiller giving me a moment of pause. IF I owned AP though, I would say hold - but certainly do entertain offers...
I've got AP along with Rice in a dynasty auction league. My rbs after them are junk. Unfortunately I ended up in the auction with Brady and Vick. Going to keep AP since he most likely won't have decent value right now, and try to move Vick for a RB.
Unfortunately my 2012 picks are all late round picks so I don't believe I'll have a chance at a stud rookie RB.
Unfortunately my 2012 picks are all late round picks so I don't believe I'll have a chance at a stud rookie RB.
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
I don't think any of those 3 promise to be worth more than AP.. They are potential studs, AP is proven stud..
pittstownkiller
Footballguy
How much of a stud will AP be if he starts the season on the PUP list? It is hard to bank heavily on a guy who might not see the field till week 7.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
AP was a proven stud. It's time to face the fact that his career is at a crossroads right now. 2012 will be his age 27 season, and I don't think you can realistically plan for starter quality numbers from him at any point. Cross your fingers for 2013.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Starter quality? Are you serious? It doesn't take much to be a top-24 RB. People really seem to be bailing on Peterson.'Kitrick Taylor said:
Carolina Hustler
Footballguy
In PPR leagues AP averaged 17.3 FP's per game. That's top 10 #'s... only 8 RB's had a better average. 4 of those 8 also ended the season on "IR"Of the 8 RB's with a better FF average, only 4 are playing through the end of the seasonFoster, Rice, McCoy, MJDIf you ask me, only the injury hinders his future #'s.. If everything works out with his knee surgery and rehab, he'll have no trouble keeping his current company in the top 10..The 3 guys you mention, have to potential to be top 10, but have not proven they could do so.. AP's value is miles ahead of theirs without the injury, only close because of the knee.. the 3rd pick in the rookie draft << Adrian Peterson.. But I'd agree that his age and the injury make your opinion a valid discussion..'Kitrick Taylor said:
Shutout
Footballguy
With Rookies being an unknown and LeShoure having the type of injury where players don't always recover from and Kevin Smith being the same Kevin Smith the Lions flat out gave up on (and nobody else wanted), I think I keep Best. I agree you're gambling but that's what separates the FF Beasts from the Leasts; the gambles that pay off. And Best was a SOLID top 6-8 RB in PPR this year. The coach has been on record saying they were just being very cautious because of the concussion and Best's age, etc. I never heard anywhere that this concussion was significantly Bad or anything.
So in the end we know he is on a team that can score and he has unique talent and can get it done. I look at Sproles and think, on that team, he could easily be THAT guy. I also look at a guy in the NHL that has sat out almost a year due to concussions and while I see the "gamble", I also see that when you have a talented player, you don't just dump them. Kevin Smith came in and impressed but he IS the same guy that was flat out released by the team and had no suitors from the rest of the league. We see guys come in when they are fresh and everyone else is beat up and look great for very short periods. I don't think the Lions are that Sold on Smith. If they believed in him that much, they would not have cut him the first time.
So, I will gamble on Best and hope he becomes an Isaac Bruce or Fred Taylor; a guy that was snake bitten early but then had several good years once he got completely healed up. I think the upside to keep him is more than anything someone would give for him.
So in the end we know he is on a team that can score and he has unique talent and can get it done. I look at Sproles and think, on that team, he could easily be THAT guy. I also look at a guy in the NHL that has sat out almost a year due to concussions and while I see the "gamble", I also see that when you have a talented player, you don't just dump them. Kevin Smith came in and impressed but he IS the same guy that was flat out released by the team and had no suitors from the rest of the league. We see guys come in when they are fresh and everyone else is beat up and look great for very short periods. I don't think the Lions are that Sold on Smith. If they believed in him that much, they would not have cut him the first time.
So, I will gamble on Best and hope he becomes an Isaac Bruce or Fred Taylor; a guy that was snake bitten early but then had several good years once he got completely healed up. I think the upside to keep him is more than anything someone would give for him.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
He was top 10 in my dynasty PPR before he got hurt. That's a stud to me.I own him in that league & can't get any value for him so he is a hold.
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