Man of Constant Sorrow
Footballguy
Really nice work at the new site SSOG. I read everything that is currently up and really look forward to the rest.
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Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
LessThanZero
Footballguy
Looking over the rankings in-depth, a few comments:
QB
Henne: Completely agree with your analysis, glad I snagged him up in my recent startup as a QB2. I'd personally bump him up to the bottom of Tier 2, as I'd personally group him with Flacco and Ryan, rather than Kolb/Stafford/Sanchez.
Whitehurst, Dixon, and Vick ahead of Alex Smith? I'll note that my incredulity is more at ranking those three that high, rather than ranking Alex Smith that low. Nonetheless, I think there are still some reasons to think that Smith may yet turn out to be a QB2 with a decently lengthy career. I'm not convinced Whitehurst or Dixon have even slim shots at that, and Vick's a high-upside lotto ticket and the clock's running out to cash in.
Rosenfels over, well, anyone else on the list strikes me as a little odd. He's aging, and he's looking worse as he does. While I don't think Tarvaris would light it up if Favre retires, I do think there's a significant chance that he plays the "capable game-manager" role and Rosenfels hardly sees the field. Even if he does end up starting, it's been awhile since he looked like he had much upside himself.
RB
Top 2 Tiers: Solid analysis all-around, particularly the points age re: DeAngelo (applies to Gore as well), age re: Stewart, and your general evaluation of Mendenhall -- there's all these reasons to like him, but while he doesn't look bad, I can't remember seeing many plays last year that really convinced me he could become a true top-tier back.
Moreno: Personally, didn't believe in him last year, so I'm not prepared to give him his get-out-of-jail free card. Would probably drop him as low as behind Pierre Thomas.
Green: In non-PPR I'd bump Green above Turner and maybe even Beanie. While Green has displayed a knack for getting nicked up, it's no worse than concerns for other backs in this tier (Jackson, Best, Turner, Felix). He's definitely getting a little overhyped. While he's a slightly lesser talent, I think he's in a much better situation (and one I expect to be stable for the next 2-3 years) than Turner and Beanie; talent should trump situation, but the talent gap is marginal while the situation gap is significant enough to nudge him up a bit.
Grant: I'm one of those dudes who gives him no respect. He's a bum. If I'm honest, he's probably ranked about right though.
Hardesty: No commentary so I don't know if this ranking reflects a positive or negative view, but it's about where I'd rank him and it seems like that might be a bit higher than average. Might just be imagining that.
McFadden and Bradshaw: I'm one of those guys who never believed in McFadden, so I'd flip these two. But if you believed in his talent coming out, there are reasons to hang onto him for one more year before cutting bait.
Kind of surprised that both TB backs rank below guys like Ricky Williams, Bernard Scott, or Jonathan Dwyer. Kind of surprised that LJ ranks ahead of Portis, though that's the right range for both of them. Some people might argue that LT and Thomas Jones are way too low; some people would be wrong.
QB
Henne: Completely agree with your analysis, glad I snagged him up in my recent startup as a QB2. I'd personally bump him up to the bottom of Tier 2, as I'd personally group him with Flacco and Ryan, rather than Kolb/Stafford/Sanchez.
Whitehurst, Dixon, and Vick ahead of Alex Smith? I'll note that my incredulity is more at ranking those three that high, rather than ranking Alex Smith that low. Nonetheless, I think there are still some reasons to think that Smith may yet turn out to be a QB2 with a decently lengthy career. I'm not convinced Whitehurst or Dixon have even slim shots at that, and Vick's a high-upside lotto ticket and the clock's running out to cash in.
Rosenfels over, well, anyone else on the list strikes me as a little odd. He's aging, and he's looking worse as he does. While I don't think Tarvaris would light it up if Favre retires, I do think there's a significant chance that he plays the "capable game-manager" role and Rosenfels hardly sees the field. Even if he does end up starting, it's been awhile since he looked like he had much upside himself.
RB
Top 2 Tiers: Solid analysis all-around, particularly the points age re: DeAngelo (applies to Gore as well), age re: Stewart, and your general evaluation of Mendenhall -- there's all these reasons to like him, but while he doesn't look bad, I can't remember seeing many plays last year that really convinced me he could become a true top-tier back.
Moreno: Personally, didn't believe in him last year, so I'm not prepared to give him his get-out-of-jail free card. Would probably drop him as low as behind Pierre Thomas.
Green: In non-PPR I'd bump Green above Turner and maybe even Beanie. While Green has displayed a knack for getting nicked up, it's no worse than concerns for other backs in this tier (Jackson, Best, Turner, Felix). He's definitely getting a little overhyped. While he's a slightly lesser talent, I think he's in a much better situation (and one I expect to be stable for the next 2-3 years) than Turner and Beanie; talent should trump situation, but the talent gap is marginal while the situation gap is significant enough to nudge him up a bit.
Grant: I'm one of those dudes who gives him no respect. He's a bum. If I'm honest, he's probably ranked about right though.
Hardesty: No commentary so I don't know if this ranking reflects a positive or negative view, but it's about where I'd rank him and it seems like that might be a bit higher than average. Might just be imagining that.
McFadden and Bradshaw: I'm one of those guys who never believed in McFadden, so I'd flip these two. But if you believed in his talent coming out, there are reasons to hang onto him for one more year before cutting bait.
Kind of surprised that both TB backs rank below guys like Ricky Williams, Bernard Scott, or Jonathan Dwyer. Kind of surprised that LJ ranks ahead of Portis, though that's the right range for both of them. Some people might argue that LT and Thomas Jones are way too low; some people would be wrong.
SSOG
Moderator
All very fair points, but like I said, at the end of the day I'm not comfortable ranking a rookie in the top 10 based on what I've heard others say about him, and the fact that you have to wait on the production does matter in the long run, if not as much as most people think (see Stewart, Jonathan). I feel comfortable ranking Dez lower mostly because I think there's just such an abundance of talent in the league right now. If I was ranking guys like Amani Toomer in my top 10, then I'd be more willing to take Dez over him, but why gamble on a rookie I know very little about when there are guys as talented as Sidney Rice or Desean Jackson still on the board?
Again, when paired with even barely acceptable QB play, Steve Smith has averaged 90+ yards per game every single season for five straight years. In 2005, he averaged 97 yards per game with Jake Delhomme. In 2006 and 2007, in games started by Jake Delhomme, he averaged 98 yards per game (iirc). In 2008, in games started by Jake Delhomme, he averaged a whopping 101.5 yards per game (and led the league in fantasy points per game). In 2009 Jake Delhomme become one of the worst QBs in the entire league, but in games started by Matt Moore Smiff still put up 95 yards per game. The guy is an absolute MACHINE. His fantasy finishes over the last 5 years are 1st, 8th (in 14 games), 16th (in 15 games), 5th (in 14 games), and 19th (in 15 games). Over that same span, Santana Moss has finished 3rd, 27th (in 14 games), 40th (in 14 games), 17th (in 16 games), and 33rd (in 16 games). Santana Moss hasn't come anywhere close to Smiff's total production during that span, and he certainly hasn't come close to Smiff's production with a legitimate QB. Smiff has averaged 11.99 points per game over the last 5 seasons. Moss has averaged 8.91 points per game over the same span. Like I said, no contest.
Thanks for the reminder on Royal. As I said, he needs to move up.
SSOG
Moderator
Here's the big reason why Henne isn't in the same stratosphere as Flacco and Ryan yet. Here's a list of the top 10 QBs in fantasy points through 2 seasons: Dan Marino, Jeff Garcia, Peyton Manning, Jim Kelly, Joe Flacco, Drew Bledsoe, Matt Ryan, Jake Plummer, Fran Tarkenton, Aaron Brooks. Henne didn't make the top 100 (through no fault of his own- no shame in sitting your rookie year behind a pro bowler). It's hard to ignore that rarified air that Flacco and Ryan are in, though. Even the worst of those names was a very high-quality fantasy QB for a sizable stretch.You're right that Smith might turn out to be a QB2 with a lengthy career, but the thing is, I place very, very little value on QB2 production. QB2 production is incredibly cheap and easy to acquire. Look at how cheap Matt Hasselbeck is right now. Or Kyle Orton. I can get QB2 production for pennies any time I want it. As a result, when I'm ranking QBs, I'm ranking based on how likely they are to get me QB1 production (with bonus points for high-end QB1 production). That's why I'm so down on Eli. Say what you want about Whitehurst, but Seattle gave up a sizable amount of value to acquire him. I also thought Dixon looked pretty impressive in limited action for a young guy, and I could see him seizing an opportunity somewhere down the road.
On a slightly related note, my philosophy is exactly the same for TEs as it is for QBs. Low-end TE1 production is essentially useless and can be had for pennies at any time. When I'm ranking TEs, I'm ranking them almost strictly on their potential to put up high-end TE1 production.
Rosenfels is a guy I was relatively high on last offseason because he'd looked like an NFL-caliber QB (something Tarvaris had yet to do). I'm basing the ranking off the assumption that Rosenfels was more likely to get substantial starts than Jackson was... and if he did get starts, just imagine what he could do with Rice, Harvin, Peterson, Shiancoe, and all the other weapons Minnesota has in place. I've heard some rumblings that he might be on the roster bubble this offseason, but I'll need to see how that plays out a bit more before dropping Sage. As I said, the goal at QB is to value explosive upside, and Sage definitely has that.
The difference between Moreno and Pierre, in my opinion, is that Moreno plays for a coaching staff that seems to be going out of its way to give him the full workload, while Thomas plays for a coaching staff that seems to be going out of its way to not give him a full workload. At the end of the day, give me the guy who is getting the carries. I've been wrong on a player's talent level before, and I'll be wrong about it again, so give me the guy whose coaches love him.Regarding Greene, I think the difference is that I view the talent gap between Greene and Wells/Turner as larger than you do. Either way, if you look at the value score, we're talking about a difference of a couple points, which means all of these backs are pretty much interchangeable.
Hardesty... I'm optimistic about his potential workload in Cleveland if he can win the job. I'm pessimistic because I saw him play a lot in the SEC and, to be honest, he's not a special back. Best case scenario is Rudi Johnson. Worst case scenario is Brandon Jackson (Green Bay). He's sort of slotted in at 25th because... well, because I was running out of guys to rank there.
Ricky's over the Tampa backs because I think there's a non-negligible chance that he puts up one last starter-caliber season, while I think there's a negligible chance that either Tampa RB performs the same feat. I've never been high on Caddy, and Ward is nothing but a 30 year old who couldn't beat out Caddy. I don't think there's a lot of value to be had there. LJ isn't really "over" Portis, per se. They're both bottom-tier backs with a value score of 1. The rankings once you get down that far are all pretty nebulous- if you shook them really hard they easily might wind up settling back in a different order. If I'm reading the tea leaves, though, I would bet on Johnson getting more carries than Portis this season.
Thanks for all the feedback, and I hope my explanations were satisfactory.
EBF
Footballguy
Fair enough on Smith/Moss. When you frame the numbers that way, the comparison is pretty lopsided.
I wasn't trying to convince you to move Dez up. I was just nitpicking your assumption that even if he pans out, he won't produce for at least one year. If he's as good as the fanboys like myself believe, anything is possible from the get-go. That's all I meant to say.
I wasn't trying to convince you to move Dez up. I was just nitpicking your assumption that even if he pans out, he won't produce for at least one year. If he's as good as the fanboys like myself believe, anything is possible from the get-go. That's all I meant to say.
EBF
Footballguy
I really like the QB rankings, BTW. My only comments there would be:
- Trent Edwards. I've gone to bat for this guy in the past and he definitely let me down with his 2009 performance. Having said that, this is a player who has been damaged by awful supporting casts throughout his entire post-high school football career. Stanford is a very good team in 2010, but when Edwards was there they had an utterly pitiful supporting cast. He got killed, developed bad habits, and lost his confidence. Sound familiar? I just have this sick hunch that he's going to be run out of Buffalo following the 2010 season only to be scooped on the cheap by some savvy personnel man who will mold him into a winning starter. I wouldn't bet strongly on that hunch. In fact, I don't think I'd rank him much higher than QB30 or so, but he's a guy I would gladly snag off waivers or as a trade throw-in. I certainly rank him above Brohm, who got the "you couldn't play dead" treatment from the Packers just a few short years after they burned an early pick on him.
- Chad Henne. Good call. I'm with you on this one. He might be the ideal QB2 target for 2010 redrafts.
- Joe Flacco. All in all, he's been pretty good. I just have a hard time buying him as a future star.
- Sam Bradford. I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm not trading him for Eli Manning.
- Trent Edwards. I've gone to bat for this guy in the past and he definitely let me down with his 2009 performance. Having said that, this is a player who has been damaged by awful supporting casts throughout his entire post-high school football career. Stanford is a very good team in 2010, but when Edwards was there they had an utterly pitiful supporting cast. He got killed, developed bad habits, and lost his confidence. Sound familiar? I just have this sick hunch that he's going to be run out of Buffalo following the 2010 season only to be scooped on the cheap by some savvy personnel man who will mold him into a winning starter. I wouldn't bet strongly on that hunch. In fact, I don't think I'd rank him much higher than QB30 or so, but he's a guy I would gladly snag off waivers or as a trade throw-in. I certainly rank him above Brohm, who got the "you couldn't play dead" treatment from the Packers just a few short years after they burned an early pick on him.
- Chad Henne. Good call. I'm with you on this one. He might be the ideal QB2 target for 2010 redrafts.
- Joe Flacco. All in all, he's been pretty good. I just have a hard time buying him as a future star.
- Sam Bradford. I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm not trading him for Eli Manning.
OnThInIcE911
Footballguy
Few things as I look over it, Haven't read the newest posts in the thread so might be some overlap. Overall seem like really solid rankings. I actually agree in a lot of places where you are disagreeing with the masses. QB:
Don't like Roethlisberger that high, would rather have everyone else in the same tier as him and possibly a few more for the price. His WR talent is not going to be any better than it was last year. Their lack of weapons plus Mendenhalls emergence is going to really limit his upside going forward.
I like where you have just about everyone else except Eli. I would put him at #10 on your rankings ahead of Mcnabb but behind Flacco. He did a lot with a little last year and had foot problems that no one seems to talk about. Nicks, Smith and Manningham make for a great trio this year and going forward. Considering he has almost no downside and I am seeing a career year I think he is flying under the radar a little.
RB:
I prefer AP over MJD but I agree that its very close. I just don't think MJD is built for the kind of workload he is being given and won't be able to have as long of a career as ADP being this kind of workhorse.
Knocking Beanie for losing carries to Hightower is a bit of a cheapshot. He was a rookie and Hightower is a good pass casser and blocker on a pass 1st offense. As the offense shifts to its new stregth, the running game, I see Beanie putting up big numbers and earning a higher % of the touches. I put him a few spots up higher than you do.
Turner is a bit higher than I like, I don't like his body and it's chances of holding up too many more seasons as a workhorse.
After that its really splitting hairs, Forte and Felix are the only players I feel strongly about moving. I'd probably swap their spots and move Felix downs a few to right above MB3.
WR
If Fitz and AJ are 1A and 1B than CJ is 1C (hes my 1A). I don't see how a tier can be separating them. Hes younger and finally in a good situation that is only gonna get better.
V-Jax. Most likely going on 29 next time he catches a pass in the NFL. Very good chance his next QB isn't as good as Rivers. You can find him somewhere in the bottom of tier 4 on my rankings.
I am in love with Crabtree so I put him above Roddy in my rankings. What he did last year was amazing and hes only gonna get better... sooo much better.
Agree wholeheartedly on Dez. He basically HAS to be the next AJ for him to live up to some peoples rankings and since he is no sure thing he can't be ranked that highly. I have him 1 spot lower and would take Jennings over him.
I flip-flop Ochocinco and Nicks. 10 years is a big deal in dynasty and I think Nicks is going to be pretty special. Id actually feel comfortable taking him before Randy depending on the team I had.
TE
My top 5 is VD, Finley, Gates, Witten, Clark. but I am more of the swing for the fences, grab the next young stud type of owner and have no real problem with your top five. I probably take Witten over Clark in every situation tho.
Not enough love for Zmiller.. I'm not gonna say too much more because I want him cheap but I would feel fine taking him as the 6th or 7th TE off the board.
Thanks for the rankings tho. I love seeing all the thoughts. Really helps me check my opinions and my value of players.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
Site looks great; consider it bookmarked. The bolded is exactly what I was hoping for from your site; your generic dynasty strategy/theory posts are among the best things about this site. I don't know if you have your posts on such topics archived somewhere without having to search the whole thread, but an archive of that stuff could be an interesting feature of the site.It's a nitpick as he'd be towards the bottom, but no Moeaki in the TE rankings? Much rather have him than a marcedes lewis or bo scaife type of guy, who hasn't been all that productive and has a high upside young guy nipping at his heels. If you're ranking guys based on their ability to put up high end TE1 numbers he's not all that high on the list, but as a young likely starter/camp darling he's gotta be above guys who have been in the league awhile and essentially established that they have neither significant production nor significant upside, right? IMO he has upside to be a cooley/heath miller type of player (skillset wise, not that the two are ranked near one another)Yup. We hope to have a couple of articles up within the week, and we'll expand from there. The goal is to make it very progressive, process-heavy, and strategy-heavy. I hate to speak in cliches, but sort of a "one stop shop" for all of a person's dynasty needs.I'm don't know if it's coming across just how excited I am about this project, but I'm sort of in fantasy-dork-nirvana at all the possibilities and features we're going to try to include. I don't want to get in trouble with the other guys for spilling state secrets or for making promises that might be impossible to deliver on, but even the little stuff is going to be pretty cool. For instance, we'll definitely be getting a rankings archive up, which will make us one of the very, very few sites where we're openly inviting scrutiny of our past predictions in an effort to identify where we were right, where we were wrong, and what processes need to be abandoned or changed going forward. I think the only limits will be the ones we place upon ourselves (or, more accurately, the ones our poor, overworked webmaster places on us).
I actually hadn't considered that, but that's a fantastic idea. I don't know how I could fit it in the rankings (would you rank the future picks against the WRs? The RBs? Both? Neither?), but it sounds like a great idea for an article- attempting to gauge the value of future draft picks vs. current players. Plus, in a year or two, we could revisit the article to see how well the early expectations held up and then tweak the expected value to hopefully be more accurate going forward.If you guys have any other suggestions about stuff that you'd like to see or other areas of dynasty where the coverage seems lacking, let us know. As I said, hopefully we'll have the forums working in a day or two, or you can shoot me an email at Adam@DynastyRankings.net.
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SSOG
Moderator
- I can totally buy Trent Edwards as an end-of-the-roster stash. The very end of my rankings currently aren't displaying because I've assigned a value score of 0 to those guys- I'll change that to a score of 0.5 in the coming days so don't be surprised if you see a couple more tiers of deep stash players crop up on my rankings in the next couple of days.- I can sort of agree on Flacco. I'm really torn on what to do with him. On the one hand, no QB in at least a decade has started two seasons, not made the top 10, and then later gone on to make the top 10 (which is a bad indicator for Flacco). On the other hand, just look at that list of names of QBs who have scored as many fantasy points as Flacco through two years. Personally, I think the total fantasy points through two years metric overrates him (because the passing game is currently at high tide in the league, which means more points for everyone), while the "no top 10 finishes" metric underrates him (because the passing game is currently at high tide, which means more competition for those top 10 finishes). On the other hand, he passed for 3600 yards last season and he just added Anquan Boldin to his stable of weapons. I really just am not sure what to make of Flacco, which is why he's at the very end of tier 2. He's got great upside, though, and to be honest... I don't think Flacco would be any more out of place putting up top-5 seasons than Matt Schaub is.
- Sam Bradford. I love him as a prospect. I really hate the Rams. I strongly considered putting him over Eli, but I have a hard time moving Eli down even lower still. The real problem here is that for some reason I can only manage to fit 15 QBs into my top 15.
* Roethlisberger makes his WRs far more than his WRs make Roethlisberger. He's a top-5 QB talent, and I think Ariens is going to keep him as the focal point of the offense no matter what Mendenhall does.* Eli's going to engender some strong opinions no matter where you put him. EBF was just saying I didn't put ENOUGH players ahead of him. You point out that he had foot problems last year. Fair enough, but let me point out that the Giants ranked 30th in scoring defense last season and Eli was almost certainly playing above his head (based on how far out of line his efficiency stats were compared to his career values).
* Personally, I think MJD is built to handle the workload better than ADP is. 7 of the top 10 RBs in terms of total career carries were 6'0" or shorter, while only 3 were 6'2" or taller. Payton was 200 pounds. Sanders was 203. Dorsett was 192. Smith, Martin, and Allen were all 210. MJD, at 5'8" and 205, fits right in among those guys. Shorter than most, but otherwise built very similarly. Adrian Peterson's body type is far more of an outlier among the guys with the most carries in NFL history.
* It's interesting that the first Felix comment I get is a suggestion that I move him *DOWN*. I figured the Felix backers would be howling about the fact that he's outside my top 20. Really, I have a hard time moving him down from where he is. While I don't think he ever reaches the upside that people project for him, I've been known to be wrong before (on very, very rare occasions, mind you
), and Felix is the kind of guy whose upside is borderline immeasurable. Sometimes, that kind of potential warrants a bit of a gamble.* Calvin is a tier behind Fitz and Andre because he has as many top-5 fantasy finishes as Miles Austin. I think the guy's great, although I agree with EBF that his ball skills are mildly overrated and I wish he'd show more of a dominating "I will not be denied" mentality. Either way, he's not the slam dunk that Fitz and Andre are. I've got him #3, but I wanted to clearly denote that Andre and Fitz are just as talented, but more proven.
* It's possible that VJax's next QB is not Philip Rivers. It's also possible that VJax's next offensive coordinator calls his number more than 109 times in a season. I'd much rather have Vjax getting 140 targets from an inferior QB than 110 targets from Philip Rivers.
* I think Ocho and Nicks is an interesting contrast. I plan on hopefully getting a good writeup comparing the two players in the coming weeks.
* I'm on board with Miller. I'm beginning to feel that I may have Celek too high, as odd as that sounds. Also, Owen Daniels' ranking is obviously subject to rapid change based on how he looks coming back from his injury (and how James Casey looks with a year under his belt). Still, I couldn't take Miller over Winslow (who might be the most talented TE in the league) or Keller (who I've got a bit of a crush on because the NYJ coaching staff keeps giving off a Jermichael Finley Light vibe about him).
SSOG
Moderator
The bottom of the rankings is going to be expanding in the next couple of days. I had another tier of players at each position, but they aren't displaying because I assigned them a value score of 0 (mostly to denote that they were just end-of-roster stash guys). No idea why Scaife is displaying while the others aren't, to be honest.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Love your work and we've been down this lane before but:
I like Wallace enough but we're just going to have to agree to disagree here. To clarify, I'm not insulting Wallace here, but they're different WRs. Wallace is actually a bit faster, IMO Maclin the better all around receiver. Maybe I'm confusing you with someone else, but it seems you dropped D. Thomas a bit since last ranking.
I like Wallace enough but we're just going to have to agree to disagree here. To clarify, I'm not insulting Wallace here, but they're different WRs. Wallace is actually a bit faster, IMO Maclin the better all around receiver. Maybe I'm confusing you with someone else, but it seems you dropped D. Thomas a bit since last ranking.
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shader
Footballguy
Nice rankings, SSOG.
I don't know if I'm on board with one thing though, and that's your MJD rankings.
In general, MJD scares me a bit. Why?
1. He's 5'7 and entering his fifth year.
2. He just gained 1400 yards, which was a career high. And the FIRST TIME he's been over 1,000.
3. He seemed to wear down a bit in the last 6 games or so, and this was his FIRST year being the primary back.
That worries me. I haven't seen anything that would make me think that MJD is going to explode this year, or any reason that he would get MORE carries in 2010 than 2009. Basically, I think his 2009 season is his ceiling.
So I wouldn't dream of picking him as my 2nd RB. Peterson has proven his ceiling. Yes, it might be a bit troubling why he seemed to struggle last year, but his upside is clearly higher than MJD's.
In fact, in a dynasty, I'd also EASILY prefer Rice over MJD as well due to his age and the fact that in year 2 he had a better season than MJD has had so far, in PPR and non-ppr.
MJD had 6 more td's than Rice, but I don't value TD's and view them as kind of fluky.
In short, in a dynasty format, I think MJD is at BEST 4th, unless possibly we're considering PPR, in which I MIGHT listen to the argument that he's higher than AP.
I don't know if I'm on board with one thing though, and that's your MJD rankings.
In general, MJD scares me a bit. Why?
1. He's 5'7 and entering his fifth year.
2. He just gained 1400 yards, which was a career high. And the FIRST TIME he's been over 1,000.
3. He seemed to wear down a bit in the last 6 games or so, and this was his FIRST year being the primary back.
That worries me. I haven't seen anything that would make me think that MJD is going to explode this year, or any reason that he would get MORE carries in 2010 than 2009. Basically, I think his 2009 season is his ceiling.
So I wouldn't dream of picking him as my 2nd RB. Peterson has proven his ceiling. Yes, it might be a bit troubling why he seemed to struggle last year, but his upside is clearly higher than MJD's.
In fact, in a dynasty, I'd also EASILY prefer Rice over MJD as well due to his age and the fact that in year 2 he had a better season than MJD has had so far, in PPR and non-ppr.
MJD had 6 more td's than Rice, but I don't value TD's and view them as kind of fluky.
In short, in a dynasty format, I think MJD is at BEST 4th, unless possibly we're considering PPR, in which I MIGHT listen to the argument that he's higher than AP.
Tau837
Footballguy
I have always disagreed with you and others over Roethlisberger, so it's no surprise that I flagged this statement.1. Upon what do you base the statement that "Roethlisberger makes his WRs far more than his WRs make Roethlisberger"?2. Can you expand a bit on how you rank QB talent? Since you say Roethlisberger is top 5, I'm interested to see how you rank others, at least others you would view as top 10 QB talents.
BigJim®
Footballguy
Curious on the Ronnie Brown write up. Your comment was he's coming off an injury that requires 2 years recovery. I am not clear where that came from... he's recovering from lis franc, and has said the foot is not an issue (FWIW) and has fully participated in camp I believe. Is there something you used to determine lis franc is a 2-year recovery?What can people tell me about Kareem Huggins? I'm seeing his name pop up a bit more lately and I've never watched him play before. All I know is that Derrick Ward was a disappointment and Cadillac's injury history scares me. Is there any chance if something happens to either guy where they revert back to their underperforming selves that Huggins could be the man in Tampa Bay?
SSOG
Moderator
I wasn't comparing them as receivers, I was comparing them as assets. Also, you're probably confusing me with someone else, since I have no "last ranking"- this is the first ranking I've posted. But yes, I've cooled considerably on Devin Thomas this offseason as rumors that he might be struggling just to make the roster have floated around.FUBAR said:Love your work and we've been down this lane before but:
I like Wallace enough but we're just going to have to agree to disagree here. To clarify, I'm not insulting Wallace here, but they're different WRs. Wallace is actually a bit faster, IMO Maclin the better all around receiver. Maybe I'm confusing you with someone else, but it seems you dropped D. Thomas a bit since last ranking.
A rebuttal...1. As I mentioned earlier, the 5'7" is a non-issue. MJD's body type is more similar to the body type of the 10 highest-carry backs in NFL history than Adrian Peterson's is. Elite RBs tend to be shorter than average and tend to hover in the 200-210 pound range. Besides, according to nfl.com, Maurice Jones-Drew is 5'7" and 208 pounds... while Ray Rice is 5'8" and 212. Are you really scared off by one inch and four pounds?shader said:
2. He was splitting time with Fred Taylor, who is a first-ballot HoVG RB. Ain't no shame or blame in that. I mean, Aaron Rodgers never topped 4,000 passing yards when he was backing up first-ballot HoFer Brett Favre. Philip Rivers never threw for 20 TDs when San Diego had future all pro Drew Brees. Having an established stud on the squad does tend to limit one's ability to make noise. It's to Jones-Drew's eternal credit that he managed three straight top-13 finishes as a backup. Hell, you say he's never topped 1,000 yards as if your league only rewards rushing yards. Maurice Jones-Drew averaged 1300 yards a season his first three years in the league. 1300! As a backup! Meanwhile, in the ONLY season he's ever been the starter, he put up 1765 yards and 16 scores.
3. He didn't look at all worn down to me. Hell, he went 61/255 rushing (4.2 yards per carry) with 71 receiving yards thrown in on top over his last 3 games. That's essentially right on his season-long yard per game average, and only barely below his season-long ypc average. Plus, I still remember when people were avoiding LaDainian Tomlinson because he "wore down as the season went along" in 2005. Sometimes, splits just happen (and this isn't even a case where splits happened, since MJD was pretty much performing business as usual at the close of the season).
As for reasons why 2009 was not his ceiling... how about the fact that Jacksonville was terrible on offense? The fact that the team's leading receiver had 869 yards and every defender was keyed in on MJD on every play? The fact that the team was 24th in scoring offense? If Jacksonville ever improves its offensive play, that means more TDs for everyone (and everyone, in this case, means MJD). If Thomas and Sims-Walker continue to develop, that means less defensive attention on MJD, which means a higher ypc, which means more production on fewer touches.
As for TDs... touchdowns are fluky, except for the rare instances when they are not. Would you argue that you shouldn't predict Randy Moss to double-digit TDs because TDs are fluky? Larry Fitzgerald? When Tomlinson was in his prime, did you come into every season moving him down the rankings because his previous season's TD totals were fluky? What about Priest Holmes? Marshall Faulk? Emmitt Smith? For 90% of the league, TDs are pretty fluky, but MJD is in the 5% that has a clear and demonstrable ability to accrue TDs at a much higher rate than his peers. Since entering the league, Jones-Drew has more TDs than anyone other than LaDainian Tomlinson. He has more TDs than Randy Moss, despite the fact that Moss has led the league in receiving TDs in two of the last three years. The third-place RB is 10 TDs behind MJD over that span. Schematically, MJD is the team's first, second, and third option down near the goal line. 42 of his 54 career TDs have come from inside the red zone. That's not changing going forward, given his effectiveness. And I don't know how much I can stress this, but he was a backup for three of those four seasons. There is nothing fluky about MJD's TDs. In fact, I would wager that nobody in the league scores more TDs than Jones-Drew over the next four seasons.
I seem to recall reading something to that effect (possibly a Will Carroll article), but I admit that when ranking that many players all at once, sometimes wires get crossed and I might have just pulled it out of the ether. Thanks for the heads up, I'll check into it and revisit as necessary in the first update.BigJim® said:
1. Roethlisberger's biggest strength is his ability to buy time for his receivers to get open. Any receiver can get open when given enough time. Therefore, Roethlisberger is less dependent on his WRs getting open in a timely manner than most other QBs in the league.2. Manning, Brees, Brady, Rivers, Roethlisberger, in some order or another. After that, you've got Rodgers, Romo, McNabb, and Cutler (I'm still a believer), then Schaub, then the young guns (Flacco, Ryan, etc). Rodgers is poised to make the leap, but Brady finds his position in the top 5 currently tenuous- he needs to convince me that the knee injury is behind him because I thought he looked tentative and slightly less accurate than his normally hyper-accurate self last season.Just Win Baby said:
TitansFan10
Footballguy
You are 100% correct on MJD. Very nice points. I didnt know that about his TD totals over the last few years. "Since entering the league, Jones-Drew has more TDs than anyone other than LaDainian Tomlinson. He has more TDs than Randy Moss, despite the fact that Moss has led the league in receiving TDs in two of the last three years. The third-place RB is 10 TDs behind MJD over that span." AWESOME.
shader
Footballguy
I have tried to study Huggins as much as possible, but there is just so little information out there. The reviews are very good, and the positives are that Cadillac and Derrick Ward aren't that great.Huggins is one of those players that I'm REALLY excited about watching this pre-season. If you have an extra roster spot and don't know what to do with it, you might consider grabbing him because if he explodes in the pre-season you never know what could happen.Most likely Huggins is going to be a non-factor. But I've heard from a few TB fans that the team really likes him. You never hear the coaches talk about him, but according to many at the camp, he gets alot of carries. Almost as if they don't want much information to get out.But who knows, we'll see. Interesting prospect though!J-Dawg said:
munchkin
Footballguy
Similarly the name Quinn Porter came up the other day on a Podcast with a writer out of Green Bay. Supposedly he has looked really solid in camp and the writer went on to say that Starks had better get healthy quick like. He didn't say the guy was a lock or anything but that he thought the kid competed really well on the field.Props to SSOG for a great looking site; it's been bookmarked!!!
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shader
Footballguy
SSOG, in dynasty rankings, I firmly believe that MJD is a solid 4th. I'm not saying he's not a good player, or even not a stud. Just that I think he's hit his limit.
Is it possible that I'm wrong and that he didn't wear down last year? I guess so. But even so, how has Jacksonville improved themselves offensively? David Garrard is David Garrard. Sims-Walker should be better. Sure, there is pre-season hype and hoopla over a bunch of unproven wr's, but usually if you don't improve, you regress. The Titans, Colts and Texans all look to be up-trending.(or in the Colts case, just status quo) That means the Jags don't have alot of room to really improve.
Why am I to believe that MJD and the Jags are going to explode on offense this year? Continued maturation of players? I guess it's possible.
However, in re-looking at stats, I feel I made a small error in my "grading" of MJD.
1. In PPR, he has been much more valuable than in non-ppr. PPR puts him solidly ahead of Peterson last year, and non-ppr puts him behind ADP.
So I guess it's possible someone MIGHT prefer MJD over ADP and while I wouldn't have a problem with that, I would never take him over Peterson myself for a NUMBER of reasons.
One reason is trade value alone. Regardless of their points, all it takes is a hot start and ADP is instantly the hottest trade item in your league. ADP is virtually untradeable for many owners. While this obviously isn't always the case, if you ask me to choose between two players who will score equal points, I'll choose the one that has a much higher trade value.
Also, and this may just be a personal hunch, I get the feeling that Peterson has one of those monster 1800 yard, 20 touchdown seasons in him, with 300 yards receiving to throw in. He got 1700+ yards in 08, 18 TD's in 09, and 400 yards receiving in 09 as well. I just feel like an absolutely monstrous season is on tap for ADP.
I don't feel that MJD has the same upside. While his season last year was great, I just don't believe he'll get more yards. I like Karim alot and think he'll be used to keep MJD fresh. I think MJD will get another very solid 1350 yard season, with 400 yards receiving and 15 td's. VERY GREAT NUMBERS..but in my opinion numbers that keep him squarely behind Peterson.
Now Rice is the question mark, and for me that's a matter of choice. When I look at Rice, I look at a guy who had 2,000 total yards in his second season. He averaged 5.1 ypc, and this isn't some fluky 5.1 that happens in limited action, this is over the course of a year. With Rice, I look at the 8 touchdowns and I see a number that has nowhere to go but up.
Add Boldin in, take 20-30 receptions away, add 4-5 td's and you have another top 4 season from Rice as a RB.
Rumors today that McGahee could be traded. These are the type of rumors that never pan out, but I think the team is committing to Rice as the MAN.
Rice's value is skyrocketing, and all it takes is another hot start to the year and he'll quickly jump past MJD in most people's minds.
Now if you are trying to acquire a stud RB and you have no interest in trading him once you get him, than perhaps trade value means nothing. In some ways, MJD seems "safer" than any of the other three rb's in the top 4. Why? I don't know. But I feel like his 1300 yards, 12-14 td's and 300 yards receiving are a lock. In you're being conservative, then I am all for choosing MJD 2nd.
But I just don't see the upside in MJD over ADP/Rice and would have him ranked 4th.
shader
Footballguy
Any idea what Porter's strengths are? Huggins' strength is his sub 4.4 speed, which always excites me. Is Porter a banger or a speed-ster?
FUBAR
Footballguy
I wasn't comparing them as receivers, I was comparing them as assets. Also, you're probably confusing me with someone else, since I have no "last ranking"- this is the first ranking I've posted. But yes, I've cooled considerably on Devin Thomas this offseason as rumors that he might be struggling just to make the roster have floated around.FUBAR said:Love your work and we've been down this lane before but:
might have been EBF or one of the other non-staffers who posted their rankings in a thread in the last month. I meant Demaryius Thomas, but as the other rankings weren't yours, that comment is moo. I won't disagree so much with the assets comment, except in PPR. Good rankings IMO, but I'll give you more credit for the format. It looks slick and is user friendly. 
I'm working with SSOG on DynastyRankings.net, and I can say that this is absolutely something we'd like to add. Not only do we intend to have some really excellent rankings, but we also will take it a step further, and allow users to be able to compare players cross-positionally, further modified by their league's roster and lineup settings. Draft pick valuation will go hand-in-hand with that as well, although that's a bit more nebulous at this time of year, both because of the very fluid value of next year's draft class, and the difficulty in predicting where a future draft pick will actually land. But it is on the to-do list.seabronc said:
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Great site guys. Like the last changed column and was wondering if there would be anyway to sort on that, so if you knew you looked that the rankings on 8/14, you can go in on 8/20 and say show me changes since 8/14.
This is a good feature to add, although I think with a little bit of modification, it could be more powerful. If you were to sort by last updated, it would indeed show you who has been modified most recently and see what changed since the last time you visited, but it wouldn't show you exactly what was modified. Comment? Ranking? If it was a ranking, how far did the player move? What if each page had a change-log, so you could see what happened on each day. IE 8/24/10: Brandon Marshall drops 10 ranks on news of his most recent arrest, comment changed to "knucklehead in jail again". That should provide what you're looking for, and more, right? As I believe SSOG has touched upon, we also intend to track our rankings in the archives, hopefully with some pretty graphs. So if anyone has curiousity about what's been going on with a single player, that's already being planned for. But the general "show me what's new in the last 2 weeks" idea, is something I think we should probably add to our upgrade plans.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Sounds great, thanks guys!
I haven't had to opportunity to read the thread yet, so this question may have been asked. SSOG, you mention that it 'looks' like Nelson is pulling away from JJ in the WR3 spot for Green Bay. I was just wondering how you came to this conclusion given JJ's superior year last year as well as the best year out of the five between them in his rookie year.
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
lol... F & L has the eye, and SSOG has the stats. I know I'm simplifying things, and both are more than that, but it's awesome to see rankings from both.
Thanks guys.
Thanks guys.
SSOG
Moderator
First off, Jones had a better raw stat line last year, but he finished the season with a 52% catch% and 7.2 yards per target. Nelson? 71% catch% and 10.3 yards per target. Second off, the fact that Jones had the best year of the five when he was a rookie is sort of irrelevant, because that was before Nelson was drafted (meaning it was before he was fighting for the WR3 spot). Of course he had his best year when he had absolutely no competition for reps in 3 WR sets. Third off, every report out of Green Bay so far during TCs has been about how much better Nelson looks than Jones.I've owned both guys since they were rookies and have always said that neither seemed to be pulling away. If I'm being honest, I always secretly thought that Jones would step up and take the job. As of right now, it doesn't look like that's going to be the case, but of course there's always time for things to change, still.
Tau837
Footballguy
On your third point above, I have seen multiple reports that Nelson has looked good, but I haven't seen any reports that Jones doesn't. Also, there is this report from Rotoworld on Tuesday, 8/10 (ETA: this is currently the latest report on either Jones or Nelson):
While it is impossible to know whether Driver or Jennings will miss time in the near future, it certainly seems more likely that Driver will miss or lose playing time due to his age and the fact that he has had some knee issues. Rotoworld's take is that if that happens, Jones will start.Are you suggesting you disagree with that, and think that Nelson would start if Driver misses time?
ETA: And this report was in Tuesday's FBG email, which I just got around to reading:
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Cool, I was just wondering your reasoning. When the totals are so low I don't normally read too much into ypt type stats (Mainly because they're only being targeted when they're open) but I understand the reasoning.
lyon812
Footballguy
Just took a quick look and it looks great. Lists and rankings are fine, but reasons matter most.
Excellent work, another goldmine.
SSOG
Moderator
In my mind, it's admission by omission. When people are talking about who looked good at practice, and they mention Nelson but not Jones, that says to me that Nelson looks better than Jones. Not that Jones looks bad, but that Nelson looks better.
There's a difference between "#3 WR" and "most likely to start if Driver gets hurt". When I say that I expect Nelson to earn the #3 job, I mean that I think he's the guy getting more snaps in 3-receiver sets. I don't know what's going to happen if Driver gets hurt, or if Jennings get hurt, or if both Driver and Jennings get hurt, or if Finley gets hurt. I don't know if Nelson being behind Jennings is because he's considered a backup to Jennings, or if it's because he's considered the #3 WR so they list him behind the #1 WR because it would be silly to list him behind BOTH receivers. I'm not trying to read the tea leaves there, and I honestly think that Rotoworld is just guessing when they try to predict what would happen if Driver misses time.
I think that's another "report" that's not really a report at all. I saw that and clicked the link. All it is is another story about what the depth chart was. Mike McCarthy didn't "indicate" that Jones had a slight edge over Nelson, he just put up the depth chart and FBGs is reading the tea leaves and deciding that Jones being behind Driver makes him the #3 by a slight margin. How they reached that conclusion is totally beyond me. The depth chart gives no indication whatsoever who is going to be taking the snaps in 3-receiver sets.If you want a good story where the Packers coaches actually say something regarding the positional battle (as opposed to links to the depth chart and fantasy sites guessing about what it means), check out this story. The relevant quote is almost at the bottom:
Green Bay's coaches have given absolutely zero indication as to whether Nelson or Jones is in the lead for the #3 WR job. Any football site that says one player or the other has the lead is simply speculating. Personally, when I speculate, I speculate the guy who has been much more efficient recently and who has been looking great in camp is going to wind up getting more reps than the guy who has been the most inefficient receiver on the team for several years in a row. Either way, who is the #3 this year isn't really all that important to either guy's long term value. The goal here is to roster the guy who becomes the long-term starter once Driver hangs it up. Recently, I've been getting more and more discouraged by the lack of progression in Jones' game, so when a lot of positive reports start surfacing about Nelson, I start to lean more towards him. As I've said for years, though, the entire situation is a cluster-you-know-what and the best bet is to just join the two players at the hip and sit them down on your bench until it's all sorted out.
munchkin
Footballguy
Not a lot of info out there....found this in the link sabertooth posted...Undrafted rookie RB Quinn Porter has been arguably "the surprise of camp," according to the Green Bay Press-Gazette's Kareem Copeland.Barring injury, Porter is a longshot to see significant snaps with the Cheeseheads. However, he's clearly made a positive impression and will push for a roster spot. "He jumps out, every practice," coach Mike McCarthy said. "Everybody's excited about it. He's shown some very natural run instincts. He's a young man that so far is taking advantage of his opportunities."
OnThInIcE911
Footballguy
Anyone else notice how slow Clausens throwing motion was last night? I was pretty drunk but it was something that jumped out at me.
Alfredo Garcia
Footballguy
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpag...1&ft=177929When you combine Jennings and Finley with the headache of predicting this, I'm done. Feels like a situation to avoid. As we've said, there are 50 receivers out there of similar caliber, so it might be time to sell Jordy to the James owner (or vice versa) and look elsewhere.Sabertooth said:
Spike
Footballguy
Or Fran Tarkenton. Or Steve Grogan. Or Ken Stabler.
kremenull
Footballguy
Pretty nice ranks SSOG, and even a better site. Since I'm strictly a PPR guy, some things I would not concur with. Like my guy Reggie Bush, who will prove to be supremely valuable this year in PPR, once again.
As far as the Jones vs. Jordy debate. In the past, I think both guys were pretty much pegged at the different slots, flanker and split end, due to them being pretty much equal in value to the Packers. So each of them was assigned the specific role of backing up the starters. Now, I get the sense that Jordy is pulling out ahead, distinguishing himself as the better player, and I believe he will get first crack at starting if either Driver or Jennings go down, and will be the clear #3 in 3 WR sets. I never bought into this Jones is a better talent than Jordy thinking. Jordy is bigger, probably just as fast, if not faster, has better hands, can elevate just as well, if not better, and gets downfield better than Jones, IMO. Jones may have a slight edge in RAC ability, but that's where his advantage(s) end, IMO.
I originally set out to acquire Jordy in most of my dynasties, but over this past offseason I also went out to grab James Jones in some of them as well, but from what I'm gathering my original projection (of Jordy > Jones) could become a realization here shortly. Stay tuned....
As far as the Jones vs. Jordy debate. In the past, I think both guys were pretty much pegged at the different slots, flanker and split end, due to them being pretty much equal in value to the Packers. So each of them was assigned the specific role of backing up the starters. Now, I get the sense that Jordy is pulling out ahead, distinguishing himself as the better player, and I believe he will get first crack at starting if either Driver or Jennings go down, and will be the clear #3 in 3 WR sets. I never bought into this Jones is a better talent than Jordy thinking. Jordy is bigger, probably just as fast, if not faster, has better hands, can elevate just as well, if not better, and gets downfield better than Jones, IMO. Jones may have a slight edge in RAC ability, but that's where his advantage(s) end, IMO.
I originally set out to acquire Jordy in most of my dynasties, but over this past offseason I also went out to grab James Jones in some of them as well, but from what I'm gathering my original projection (of Jordy > Jones) could become a realization here shortly. Stay tuned....
Spike
Footballguy
I really like the tiered approach you've used in the rankings.SSOG said:Yup. We hope to have a couple of articles up within the week, and we'll expand from there. The goal is to make it very progressive, process-heavy, and strategy-heavy. I hate to speak in cliches, but sort of a "one stop shop" for all of a person's dynasty needs.I'm don't know if it's coming across just how excited I am about this project, but I'm sort of in fantasy-dork-nirvana at all the possibilities and features we're going to try to include. I don't want to get in trouble with the other guys for spilling state secrets or for making promises that might be impossible to deliver on, but even the little stuff is going to be pretty cool. For instance, we'll definitely be getting a rankings archive up, which will make us one of the very, very few sites where we're openly inviting scrutiny of our past predictions in an effort to identify where we were right, where we were wrong, and what processes need to be abandoned or changed going forward. I think the only limits will be the ones we place upon ourselves (or, more accurately, the ones our poor, overworked webmaster places on usLessThanZero said:
I actually hadn't considered that, but that's a fantastic idea. I don't know how I could fit it in the rankings (would you rank the future picks against the WRs? The RBs? Both? Neither?), but it sounds like a great idea for an article- attempting to gauge the value of future draft picks vs. current players. Plus, in a year or two, we could revisit the article to see how well the early expectations held up and then tweak the expected value to hopefully be more accurate going forward.If you guys have any other suggestions about stuff that you'd like to see or other areas of dynasty where the coverage seems lacking, let us know. As I said, hopefully we'll have the forums working in a day or two, or you can shoot me an email at Adam@DynastyRankings.net.seabronc said:
TitansFan10
Footballguy
Glen Coffee announces he is leaving football.... wow.
Shader that dynasty value pick is not gonna work out for you. LOL
Shader that dynasty value pick is not gonna work out for you. LOL
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Spike
Footballguy
I wonder if it's time for us (collectively) to no longer use the "Well this RB is only 200 lbs but Tony Dorsett was 200 lbs" argument. Yes, they weigh the same but what is not being taken into account is that I'm certain that the defensive players are significantly bigger now. Because of this, the beating the 200 lb RB of now receives is much greater than the beating the 200 lb RB of yore (Dorsett in this example) received.SSOG said:- I can totally buy Trent Edwards as an end-of-the-roster stash. The very end of my rankings currently aren't displaying because I've assigned a value score of 0 to those guys- I'll change that to a score of 0.5 in the coming days so don't be surprised if you see a couple more tiers of deep stash players crop up on my rankings in the next couple of days.- I can sort of agree on Flacco. I'm really torn on what to do with him. On the one hand, no QB in at least a decade has started two seasons, not made the top 10, and then later gone on to make the top 10 (which is a bad indicator for Flacco). On the other hand, just look at that list of names of QBs who have scored as many fantasy points as Flacco through two years. Personally, I think the total fantasy points through two years metric overrates him (because the passing game is currently at high tide in the league, which means more points for everyone), while the "no top 10 finishes" metric underrates him (because the passing game is currently at high tide, which means more competition for those top 10 finishes). On the other hand, he passed for 3600 yards last season and he just added Anquan Boldin to his stable of weapons. I really just am not sure what to make of Flacco, which is why he's at the very end of tier 2. He's got great upside, though, and to be honest... I don't think Flacco would be any more out of place putting up top-5 seasons than Matt Schaub is.EBF said:
- Sam Bradford. I love him as a prospect. I really hate the Rams. I strongly considered putting him over Eli, but I have a hard time moving Eli down even lower still. The real problem here is that for some reason I can only manage to fit 15 QBs into my top 15.
* Roethlisberger makes his WRs far more than his WRs make Roethlisberger. He's a top-5 QB talent, and I think Ariens is going to keep him as the focal point of the offense no matter what Mendenhall does.* Eli's going to engender some strong opinions no matter where you put him. EBF was just saying I didn't put ENOUGH players ahead of him. You point out that he had foot problems last year. Fair enough, but let me point out that the Giants ranked 30th in scoring defense last season and Eli was almost certainly playing above his head (based on how far out of line his efficiency stats were compared to his career values).OnThInIcE911 said:
* Personally, I think MJD is built to handle the workload better than ADP is. 7 of the top 10 RBs in terms of total career carries were 6'0" or shorter, while only 3 were 6'2" or taller. Payton was 200 pounds. Sanders was 203. Dorsett was 192. Smith, Martin, and Allen were all 210. MJD, at 5'8" and 205, fits right in among those guys. Shorter than most, but otherwise built very similarly. Adrian Peterson's body type is far more of an outlier among the guys with the most carries in NFL history.
* It's interesting that the first Felix comment I get is a suggestion that I move him *DOWN*. I figured the Felix backers would be howling about the fact that he's outside my top 20. Really, I have a hard time moving him down from where he is. While I don't think he ever reaches the upside that people project for him, I've been known to be wrong before (on very, very rare occasions, mind you :( ), and Felix is the kind of guy whose upside is borderline immeasurable. Sometimes, that kind of potential warrants a bit of a gamble.
* Calvin is a tier behind Fitz and Andre because he has as many top-5 fantasy finishes as Miles Austin. I think the guy's great, although I agree with EBF that his ball skills are mildly overrated and I wish he'd show more of a dominating "I will not be denied" mentality. Either way, he's not the slam dunk that Fitz and Andre are. I've got him #3, but I wanted to clearly denote that Andre and Fitz are just as talented, but more proven.
* It's possible that VJax's next QB is not Philip Rivers. It's also possible that VJax's next offensive coordinator calls his number more than 109 times in a season. I'd much rather have Vjax getting 140 targets from an inferior QB than 110 targets from Philip Rivers.
* I think Ocho and Nicks is an interesting contrast. I plan on hopefully getting a good writeup comparing the two players in the coming weeks.
* I'm on board with Miller. I'm beginning to feel that I may have Celek too high, as odd as that sounds. Also, Owen Daniels' ranking is obviously subject to rapid change based on how he looks coming back from his injury (and how James Casey looks with a year under his belt). Still, I couldn't take Miller over Winslow (who might be the most talented TE in the league) or Keller (who I've got a bit of a crush on because the NYJ coaching staff keeps giving off a Jermichael Finley Light vibe about him).
TitansFan10
Footballguy
You couldn't... thats crazy. I heard he may go into ministry work? No way to predict that... Just messing with you.
