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I've pulled Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, and Sam Bradford all late in the first round. Could have had Mike Williams (TB) in the second easily last year.Rookie picks are as valuable as the guy choosing them feels comfortable picking the right guy.
Me too (maybe not robbery but worth it). Or Tebow, who you have below Orton/Sanchez for now (but wouldn't do it for Orton or Sanchez). If RB was a heavy need, BJGE, Choice, M. Bush are all possibilities (not really buying Brown or Reggie). At WR, Ocho and Knox are close depending on need (don't know what to think of Floyd right now).
One league I have had a late 1st every year that I sat on and ended up with: Charles, Britt, Williams.One league I have had multiple early 1sts the past couple years and ended up with: Mathews, Spiller, Wells, Crabtree.I could see Floyd falling to 1.12 in a dynasty league (EBF has him at 11 right now, I think) and outperforming Jones or Green or Blackmon. A lot of good late 1st/early 2nd types this year.
I think this is a great WR class and will definitely be targeting a few in my dynasty start-up.
good response, thanks.i like the idea of finding the top tier of players and maybe getting in at the end of that tier. whether it's pick 3 or 4 or whatever.
this whole post makes a lot of sense. skill guys that are taken in the 1st round obv have (or at least should have) a lot of talent and the pick at 1.7 or 1.8 comes a lot cheaper than paying the premium on 1.1 or 1.2. one thing i've definitely learned - i have to pay more attention to the rookie WRs and QBs that i've ignored in the years of my redrafts. (or i'll just read a lot on here!)
Thread = jumped the shark
I picked up L. Blount in the middle of the 3rd this year. No doubt there is talent to be found throughout the draft. But trading players that can help me win now, for a pick that won't help me until next year is not something I like to do, when I am competing. Especially when I can trade picks for players that can help me win now, then decide where or if I want to pick in the draft and trade back in. But to each his own. If you play PPR, the gap between the top picks and the later picks is much smaller.Also, the hit rate is smaller the further down you go. I think the rate starts to take its biggest hit after the 1st tier.
1800 yards from scrimmage this year. 3rd overall in the league. That's RB1 production. With a few more td's, he could be number 1. Not to mention it's only his second full season.
We weren't discussing whether a team was competing now to win, building for future, or anything else. You just said the top 3 picks are usually way more valuable than the rest of the first round. I don't think that's true. There's as many busts and hits in those locks as there are throughout the rest of the round. I do agree it can be a good idea to trade rookie picks for established guys too if you get a good deal. I got Roddy White for Eddie Royal and a #1 over a year ago.The 09 rookies.... middle to end of Round 1 is loaded with better players than the top (McCoy, Harvin, Nicks, Britt, Maclin, Stafford, and Sanchez over Wells, Crabtree, Moreno, and D. Brown - only Moreno is really producing worth that pick).In 08, Stewart and McFadden were #1/#2 in most drafts followed by Forte and Mendenhall. Rice and Chris Johnson have outperformed all of them. Charles and F. Jones as well as Desean Jackson and some good QBs were found in late 1 and Rd 2 that year too.In 07, people chased Russell and B. Jackson and M. Bush and ignored S. Rice and Bowe.
I don't get some people's opinions on Rice around here either. It's as if people are simply assuming he had a mediocre and/or bad season this year, when the reality is that for the 2nd year in a row, he had an elite season. He was always on pace for great total yardage, ending with over 1800 total yards, but after putting up just a couple touchdowns down the stretch, finished as a top 10 RB for the 2nd straight year (PPR or non PPR). The fact that he has managed to post back to back top 10 seasons WITHOUT receiving any real goal line opportunities makes it even MORE impressive and makes him MORE appealing to me, not less appealing as some are suggesting. The fact that there is a very real chance he will see a significant increase in goal line opportunities next year just adds to his value and is why I consider him a no brainer top 4-5 RB.
Nobody is saying Rice should fall out of the top 10, just that he is not a top 5 like everyone thought he was before the 2010 season. I dont see how you can say he is a no brainer top 5 RB. He only averaged 4 YPC, and scored 6 TD's this season. I would hope for better numbers than that from a guy i consider a top 5 RB.Herm23 said:
Ive got Leshoure 1 point higher than Willimas in my dynasty rankings, and Lewis 1 point behind him. I think all 4 will go in the top 10 of rookie drafts, just not sure in what order until after the NFL draft. Vereen could sneak in the top 10, and Devine might too, for me anyway.
I'm not fully sold on Ryan Williams and I think a lot could change between now and then. A player I really like if he declares is Pitt's Dion Lewis. I'm not saying he would be a top 10 pick, but I would be willing to overpay for him.
Yep. I could have gotten Mike Williams (TB) in probably 8 or 9 of my 13 dynasty leagues. Instead I kept taking McCluster with that 1.11-2.2 picks. Would kill to go back and get Williams now. I just played it safe because of the off field stuff. Sometimes you have to take those risks.
I took Dwyer at 1.11 over Williams.
It's an RB heavy league and I have Mendy, but still just a horrific decision.
Yes, many will. They always do. As soon as a RB needy team like the Dolphins draft someone they shoot up the rookie rankings regardless of talent. See Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty last year.
I think many already considered Hardesty a top 6-7 pick, and Tate a late first rounder, even before they were drafted. Of course i agree with your point for the most part, except its not always the team that drafts them that makes them more valuable, but how high that team takes them. Dwyer was considered a top 6 pick last year pre NFL draft, and he didnt fall to the 2nd round of rookie drafts because he went to the Steelers, he fell because he was picked in the 6th round. Had Tate or Hardesty been picked in the 6th round, but by the same team, they wouldnt have been drafted in the first round of rookie drafts.
You really believe that? Just as many? The hit rate drops with every pick, just as it does with everything else.Ramblin Wreck said:
I could see a draft goGreenIngramR WilliamsLeshoureJJonesBlackmonDLewisDThomasBaldwinFloydVereenHunterPossibly 7 rb's in top 12. The RB's in this yrs draft are underrated IMO. The reason is that in many eyes none of them stand out as "studs". Some think Ingram could be, I think Williams/Leshoure/Lewis could be too....but what I like the most about this draft is the number of guys that I see as quality prospects, not "studs", but the type of RB's that can/will do very well in the right situations.
You used the 2010 rookies who have played one season. You don't have a clue what kind of player any of these guys will ultimately become. Let's see you toss up 2009, 2008, or 2007 where we have a much better idea of who a player truly is.
If you are arguing there are just as many busts in the top 3 as there are in the 10-12 rookie picks, you dont want to do this, you will lose. Assuming you come up with a big enough sample size anyway.
I will gladly do so when I can. But I am confused as to why it matters what year. You yourself seemed to suggest that you have the foresight needed to draft players late in the first that will match the production of the top 3 players picked. So, using your foresight, what players did you see going late (2010) that will have better careers than the top 3?(Dez, Matthews, Best) Mike Williams being an example you already used, although he was a well known talent, falling due to character concerns. Gerhart, G. Tate, Dwyer, Sparks, Dixon, Benn?Now that I think about it, using 2010 is a cop out - you have the luxury of hindsight. Lets use 2011.Lets assume the top 3 are Green, Ingram, and Williams. The next off the board will most likely be Jones, Blackmon, Leshoure, Newton, Baldwin, and most in the thread seem to think Lewis. So what players will you be drafting late that have the same chance of being good fantasy options as Green, Ingram and Williams?
I'm not trying to win anything. I've said and still believe that you can find great players in the middle and end of the first round of a rookie draft just as easily as you can in the top 3.In 2009, top 3 were Crabtree, Moreno, and Wells. Later in the round were McCoy, Harvin, Maclin, Britt, Nicks, Stafford, and Sanchez. All have performed as well as if not better than the top 3. In 2008, McFadden and Stewart were mostly the top two followed by Forte and Mendenhall. After that, you find Ray Rice and Chris Johnson (both outperformed all four of the top four). Jamaal Charles and Felix Jones as well as Ryan and Flacco were later in that round or early 2nd.In 2007, top 3 were ADP, Calvin, and Lynch. I don't think anyone that drafted Lynch would feel great about that top 3 pick. That year only Bowe and Rice were worth a crap later in the round. Despite Concept Coop's attempt to change the subject, I've never claimed I could predict the future. I just said rookie picks were as valuable as your comfort level on hitting on them and picking the right guys. He claimed rookie picks weren't very valuable unless they were in the top 3. I took exception to that and still do.
While I agree with your premise, I don't think that 2011 will be a true assessment of your logic. As I think that '11 will be a very solid first round that is not top heavy like most drafts, especiallly in the recent future. I could see multiple players from Blackmon, Lewis, etc that could turn out better than the "Top 3". I think that this year is very different in that fact though, because it is one of the few years that I would look to trade back in a draft because I think the talent at the back end of the 1st round is not as much of a drop as ibn other years.
You have a lot of trouble sticking on topic. Has anyone seen F&L lately? Why doesn't he post in his own thread any longer?
If I misunderstood your statement, it was simply that. I am not trying to change the subject at all. I don't find the value in looking at past drafts, finding those outperforming their draft position, then using that to suggest it can be duplicated, if you are "comfortable". As I said, the hit rate drops with every pick that passes. Typically, I find after the top 3-5. Last year 4, this year 3, in my opinion.
I agree that all rookie picks have value, but they also lose value the further down you go. Sure, the 1.1 pick will rarely end up as the best pick, but it will end up as the best pick more times than any other ONE pick.
The Adderall should have kicked in a couple hours ago.
But, I don't see how anything I have said is off topic.
He doesn't post because he's noticed a trend, in his eyes and others I suppose, that a lot more people are, errr....less intelligent postings in here during the season - not to mention all the stupid ACF questions. So he waits to jump in until they clear out and the real discussion picks up in the offseason, both in volume as well as quality.
The off-season is definitely the prime time for dynasty discussion. But you're correct - the quality of content in this thread has gone way down, as is typical when any small group gets larger. Also, the discussions often boil down to the same unsolvable debates - talent vs. situation and/or personal dynasty philosophies. Quote wars go on and on over those two issues and rarely do we learn anything new. Anyone curious about F&L's thoughts can find them in this thread somewhere, and if there isn't a specific mention of your player you could probably deduce his opinion just by being familiar with his approach. And lastly.. he works for Rotoworld, not FBG.
The simple answer is due to the absolute bankability of his total yardage each season. I doubt there is a safer bet in the entire league to put up more total yardage on a regular basis, based on situation, usage, and talent. The fact that he now has 2 straight top 10 seasons (1 very high top 10, one barely top 10) while not being a goal line factor at all simply adds to the weight of the argument that he is a top 5 RB. He has proven he is touchdown proof, where most any other RB in the league is not- in other words, he does not need touchdowns to produce as an RB1 (or even a very high RB1 as 2009 showed). Most any other RB in the league would experience a sharp drop in production if he suddenly lost goal line touches or had a 6 TD year, but not Rice. The fact that his situation is likely changing for the good and there is a real opportunity for an increase in his touchdown potential, coupled with the bankability of his total yardage production, makes him a lot more valuabe to me than most players that have recently been slotted ahead of him by many. When your floor is RB9 or RB10 and your ceiling is top 3 RB, you have a dynamite player and a great fantasy asset that belongs in the top 5. In my opinion, the past 2 years we have seen his ceiling (2009- top 3 finish) and his floor (2010- RB9 or RB10 finish). I'll take that over the McCoy's, Stewart's, Mendenhall's, McFadden's, etc... who all have significantly lower floors without having a higher ceiling.However, this has been discussed, so it's probably time to put this debate out to pasture for the time being.
Assuming the knee injuries this year ARE NOT a chronic issue for him, then I would argue MJD is just as safe a bet, and even safer when you consider that he is a proven TD scoring machine in addition to being every bit as versatile as Rice in both running/passing phases of the offense. Heck I would say MJD is actually more of a focal point for the Jacksonville offense, than Rice is in Baltimore, due to the Jaguars possessing lesser surrounding offensive talent.But I don't mean to pick nits with you, Rice is still a fantastic dynasty option, with the only possible ***** in the armor being the lack of scoring opportunities. I won't argue with anyone on including Rice in their top 5 dynasty RBs, nor will I argue with those who drop him a few slots due to a perceived lack of TD production. Truth is, only time will tell whether or not Rice can become a double digit TD machine to really cement a place in the top 3-5. Meanwhile he's welcome to join my dynasty team anytime.
While you are right, and we should probably let it rest, I just wanted to point out that Rice was towards the middle of the top 10, not towards the top. If I recall, CJ, ADP, MJD and Frank Gore all finished higher than him in standard formats. While I don't think Rice is top 5, your points are valid.
The din. It's too loud.
Hey F&L, thanks for checking in...Couple of players I'ld love to pick your brain about if you have any insights or inclinations to delve into them here...I'm curious as to your thoughts on Vick for the next year or two. Has/will the league figure him out? Is he writing checks with his style of play that his over 30 body can no longer cash? Was this just a special 'stars aligned season', or do you think he can be QB1 by a decent margin again one or two more times in his career?And as far as MJD and the reoccuring knee problems that I believed slowed him significantly in the beginning and again at the end of the season, do you believe this was most likely just a 2010 issue, or red flags of a potentially chronic stiuation and/or a foreshadowing of what's around the corner for him. My fear is that he may turn into a Steven Jackson type who is lights out when healthy and tough enough to play through injuries, but prone to stretches of reduced output virtually every season from here on out...Fear & Loathing said:
It is a rare WR that comes right out of the gates and is a stud. Typically they take the Dwayne Bowe route and despite their talent, kind of suck it up their first 2-3 years until they "get it." Bowe didn't really suck, but he wasn't a worldbeater either until the 2nd half of this year. It's the old 3-year WR breakout. Guys like Fitzgerald and Dez Bryant are a rare breed, guys who can come out and dominate right off the bat.I wouldn't expect much from any of the WRs this year or next. AJ Green and Julio are the dominant talents coming out, but we will see how long it takes for them to show that dominance in the NFL.
How in the world can anyone play in 13 dynasty leagues, lol...that's just ridiculous! That must be the record around here.
The problem is that you are comparing apples to oranges. You're saying that you can find as many studs "in the later rounds" as you can in the top 3. Well, the top 3 is only 3 picks, the "later rounds" you're using is like 30 picks. So yeah, if you have 30 picks and can select all of them and then see which ones turn out great and which ones don't, and then take the best 3 and compare them to the top 3, then yes, you're going to win. But no one has all 30 picks so they can take them all and then with hindsight take the best out of the bunch.
I would argue that Bowe had a more dominant rookie season than either Bryant of Fitz.Even if you subtract the game Bryant got hurt in, his numbers would still have only prorated to 55 rec, 684 yards, 8 TD's.
I'm not sure how you're arriving at those numbers for Dez... Including the game he got hurt, Bryant finished with 45 catches for 561 yards and 6 TDs. He missed the last four games after being put on IR (again, I'm including the game he got hurt AND the game he missed in week twelve with the previous ankle injury.) Pro-rating his numbers over the twelve games before he was put on IR for a full 16 games, he would finish with 60 catches for 746 yards and 8 TDs. Throw in the two return touchdowns he already earned, and you're talking about 10 TDs.
I'm sure there are several who frequent this thread that play in more than that. I was in 14 a couple of years ago, but had to cut back because of college. It isn't as hard as it seems once you are familiar with your teams.
You are correct, i was wrong(did the math in my head). Except your numbers arent right either(although close enough).
I see your point but to be fair, I'm not using 30 picks. I'm using the next 7-10 picks in most cases. Using the next 30 picks we could start talking all kinds of players. So let's not exaggerate please.I'll give you that the side I'm stating has more leeway because it has more opportunity. But my opinion still stands that you can find great players in the middle and end of the first round just as you can in the top 3. And you can find crap in the top 3 easily. So saying any pick that isn't in the top 3 isn't that valuable is a false statement, IMO.
Nobody is arguing against that, just that your chances of getting a good player are greater the earlier you pick. Also, who said that picks after the top 3 have no value?
That's for sure.
