Ramblin Wreck said:
I've pulled Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, and Sam Bradford all late in the first round. Could have had Mike Williams (TB) in the second easily last year.
Rookie picks are as valuable as the guy choosing them feels comfortable picking the right guy.
I picked up L. Blount in the middle of the 3rd this year. No doubt there is talent to be found throughout the draft. But trading players that can help me win now, for a pick that won't help me until next year is not something I like to do, when I am competing. Especially when I can trade picks for players that can help me win now, then decide where or if I want to pick in the draft and trade back in. But to each his own. If you play PPR, the gap between the top picks and the later picks is much smaller.
Also, the hit rate is smaller the further down you go. I think the rate starts to take its biggest hit after the 1st tier.
We weren't discussing whether a team was competing now to win, building for future, or anything else. You just said the top 3 picks are usually way more valuable than the rest of the first round. I don't think that's true.
There's as many busts and hits in those locks as there are throughout the rest of the round.
You really believe that? Just as many? The hit rate drops with every pick, just as it does with everything else.
Here are three rookie drafts from last year (MOX1-3). Just because some got lucky and found a talent like Mike Williams sitting there in the late end of the round, doesn't mean they were just as likely to find talent as if they drafted 1.01-1.03. As you can see, the talent level drops, especially after the top 4 (this year).
1.01 1. Mathematically Eliminated Mathews, Ryan SDC RB ® Mon Jul 26 8:06:42 a.m. ET 2010 124.00
1.02 2. Westchester Barbarians Spiller, C.J. BUF RB ® Mon Jul 26 8:11:30 a.m. ET 2010 50.00
1.03 3. Short Bus All-Stars Bryant, Dez DAL WR ® Mon Jul 26 8:33:32 a.m. ET 2010 92.10
1.04 4. JohnnyU Best, Jahvid DET RB ® Mon Jul 26 8:33:33 a.m. ET 2010 141.00 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List
1.05 5. LONGSHOTZ Hardesty, Montario CLE RB ® Mon Jul 26 8:33:33 a.m. ET 2010 - Pick made based on Pre-Draft List
1.06 6. Team Pepe Delgado's Tate, Ben HOU RB ® Mon Jul 26 10:49:04 a.m. ET 2010 -
1.07 7. Java Junkie Benn, Arrelious TBB WR ® Mon Jul 26 10:50:42 a.m. ET 2010 55.00
1.08 8. Rocky Top Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR ® Mon Jul 26 2:36:29 p.m. ET 2010 40.40
1.09 9. Henchmen Gerhart, Toby MIN RB ® Mon Jul 26 2:38:42 p.m. ET 2010 55.10
1.10 10. Westchester Barbarians Bradford, Sam STL QB ® Mon Jul 26 2:56:34 p.m. ET 2010 224.88
1.11 11. Fighting Couch Potatoes Dwyer, Jonathan PIT RB ® Mon Jul 26 3:12:19 p.m. ET 2010 2.80
1.12 12. Mathematically Eliminated Tate, Golden SEA WR ® Mon Jul 26 8:49:21 p.m. ET 2010 23.10
1.13 13. JohnnyU Williams, Mike TBB WR ® Mon Jul 26 9:07:49 p.m. ET 2010 162.40
1.14 14. Java Junkie McCluster, Dexter KCC WR ® Mon Jul 26 9:07:50 p.m. ET 2010 34.50
1.01 1. Team Pepe Delgados II Mathews, Ryan SDC RB ® Mon Jul 26 12:20:18 p.m. ET 2010 124.00
1.02 2. Nasty Nor'Easter 2 Best, Jahvid DET RB ® Mon Jul 26 12:20:19 p.m. ET 2010 141.00 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List
1.03 3. Short Bus All-Stars II Spiller, C.J. BUF RB ® Mon Jul 26 7:09:14 p.m. ET 2010 50.00
1.04 4. LONGSHOTZ-II Hardesty, Montario CLE RB ® Mon Jul 26 7:09:15 p.m. ET 2010 - Pick made based on Pre-Draft List
1.05 5. Red Dawgs Bryant, Dez DAL WR ® Mon Jul 26 10:50:50 p.m. ET 2010 92.10
1.06 6. The Fightin' Griffins Bradford, Sam STL QB ® Mon Jul 26 11:27:33 p.m. ET 2010 224.88
1.07 7. Team Pepe Delgados II Tate, Ben HOU RB ® Tue Jul 27 10:51:05 a.m. ET 2010 -
1.08 8. Thundering Herd Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR ® Tue Jul 27 12:29:29 p.m. ET 2010 40.40
1.09 9. Hells Satans Benn, Arrelious TBB WR ® Tue Jul 27 4:42:19 p.m. ET 2010 55.00
1.10 10. Team Pepe Delgados II Tate, Golden SEA WR ® Tue Jul 27 4:42:20 p.m. ET 2010 23.10 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List
1.11 11. Rocky Top Williams, Mike TBB WR ® Tue Jul 27 10:02:11 p.m. ET 2010 162.40
1.12 12. Smackdown Gerhart, Toby MIN RB ® Tue Jul 27 10:12:48 p.m. ET 2010 55.10 This made the Brady trade worth it. ADP is due to get hurt one of these seasons.
1.13 13. Smackdown Starks, James GBP RB ® Tue Jul 27 11:30:08 p.m. ET 2010 11.60 Feels like a reach but maybe not. Trading for an early 2nd.
1.14 14. Nasty Nor'Easter 2 McCluster, Dexter KCC WR ® Wed Jul 28 10:33:33 a.m. ET 2010 34.50
1.01 1. Arial Excellence Mathews, Ryan SDC RB ® Mon Jul 26 12:45:31 p.m. ET 2010 124.00 Sorry for the delay.
1.02 2. Animaniacs Best, Jahvid DET RB ® Mon Jul 26 12:45:32 p.m. ET 2010 141.00 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List
1.03 3. Mac's Meatheads Bryant, Dez DAL WR ® Mon Jul 26 5:25:53 p.m. ET 2010 92.10
1.04 4. Detroit Domination Spiller, C.J. BUF RB ® Mon Jul 26 7:31:42 p.m. ET 2010 50.00
1.05 5. Detroit Domination Hardesty, Montario CLE RB ® Mon Jul 26 8:15:57 p.m. ET 2010 -
1.06 6. LONGSHOTZ-III Tate, Ben HOU RB ® Mon Jul 26 8:15:58 p.m. ET 2010 - Pick made based on Pre-Draft List
1.07 7. B and B Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR ® Tue Jul 27 12:11:08 p.m. ET 2010 40.40
1.08 8. The Spam Eaters Bradford, Sam STL QB ® Tue Jul 27 1:13:15 p.m. ET 2010 224.88
1.09 9. Arial Excellence Benn, Arrelious TBB WR ® Tue Jul 27 1:52:35 p.m. ET 2010 55.00
1.10 10. Detroit Domination Tate, Golden SEA WR ® Tue Jul 27 2:50:59 p.m. ET 2010 23.10
1.11 11. Galloping Gnus Williams, Damian TEN WR ® Tue Jul 27 2:51:00 p.m. ET 2010 22.40 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List
1.12 12. Smoky Mountain Ballers McCluster, Dexter KCC WR ® Tue Jul 27 3:49:27 p.m. ET 2010 34.50
1.13 13. Animaniacs Starks, James GBP RB ® Tue Jul 27 10:33:57 p.m. ET 2010 11.60
1.14 14. Smoky Mountain Ballers Clausen, Jimmy CAR QB ® Tue Jul 27 10:33:58 p.m. ET 2010 80.02 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List