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Earliest You Will Consider Matt Ryan (1 Viewer)

R

RalphMouth

Footballguy
When will his elevator ride to the top end?

Started as a steal in the 6th or 7th round but now he's going in the 4th and 5th

but just heard that he's now going in the third in many leagues.

If you draft in the number 1, 2 or 3rd spots this year & grab Foster, McCoy or Rice are you willing to take him somewhere between the 22nd -27th overall picks?

:popcorn:

 
Nope. I pick 3rd (12 team PPR, 6 pts per TD pass) and the absolute earliest I would even CONSIDER him is 4.10/5.03. I would be quite likely to take him at 6.10/7.03 though. He won't be on my teams, obviously.

 
He went 11th overall in one of our FBG staff leagues and 23rd in the other. The hype is in full force over him at this point.

 
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Just remember that people were sky high on him last year too....I would not feel that good having him on my team in any round, and there is no way I would consider him in 3rd, 4th, or 5th round.

My reasoning is that I think that is a. very conservative and afraid to air it out recklessly, and b. he is a choker, which goes hand in hand with how conservative he is. Despite the fact he has a lot of talent around him, I do not see him as somebody who makes players better, better players make him better. What happens when those players get injured?

 
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'David Yudkin said:
He went 11th in one of our FBG staff leagues and 23rd in the other. The hype is in full force over him at this point.
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David- Are you on board his hype train ? What's your projections for him this year? I really think his value has skyrocketed not only because of his WRs & the new ATL offensive philosophy but also the fact that Romo, Rivers & Vick all look scary (in a bad way)
 
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'RalphMouth said:
When will his elevator ride to the top end?Started as a steal in the 6th or 7th round but now he's going in the 4th and 5thbut just heard that he's now going in the third in many leagues.If you draft in the number 1, 2 or 3rd spots this year & grab Foster, McCoy or Rice are you willing to take him somewhere between the 22nd -27th overall picks? :popcorn:
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Depending on the league I would be willing to draft him at the 4/5 turn- but there's no chance I would take him between picks 22 and 27. Amazing how this guy went from undervalued to overvalued in the span of just a week.
 
FFC ADP graph shows he was at 5.09 last friday(12 teamer) and he is now at 4.03

Reminds me a bit of Arian Foster's rise in 2010 or Rice in 2009

 
'meatwad1 said:
Just remember that people were sky high on him last year too....I would not feel that good having him on my team in any round, and there is no way I would consider him in 3rd, 4th, or 5th round.My reasoning is that I think that is a. very conservative and afraid to air it out recklessly, and b. he is a choker, which goes hand in hand with how conservative he is. Despite the fact he has a lot of talent around him, I do not see him as somebody who makes players better, better players make him better. What happens when those players get injured?
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:lmao:
 
Probably no earlier than the 8th or 9th QB off the board. I'm more concerned with getting a QB out of my second tier, which includes Ryan, than any specific round. I'll jump when we're down to just a couple of them left.

 
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You have to love his situation and his floor is ridiculously high because of the talent they've surrounded him with. I can't see pulling the trigger anywhere near the first 4 rounds though of any league not using 2 qb's. I guess I just don't believe he's an elite level talent.

 
'TheFootballJesus said:
'RalphMouth said:
When will his elevator ride to the top end?

Started as a steal in the 6th or 7th round but now he's going in the 4th and 5th

but just heard that he's now going in the third in many leagues.

If you draft in the number 1, 2 or 3rd spots this year & grab Foster, McCoy or Rice are you willing to take him somewhere between the 22nd -27th overall picks?

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
Depending on the league I would be willing to draft him at the 4/5 turn- but there's no chance I would take him between picks 22 and 27. Amazing how this guy went from undervalued to overvalued in the span of just a week.
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see I guess I just don't get this....there are very solid reasons why this has happened.....we heard for a long time what was coming in ATL....no huddle, up tempo, featuring the passing game....then we actually got to see it happening.....wtf did you think was going to happen?.....his rising ADP is very much understandable.....it looks like he is in a situation to put up monster numbers...

at some point you have to let go of past seasons and stats and you have to let what you see happening RIGHT NOW dictate what you do.....dude could be huge this year...

the talent he has around him obviosly helps....and if we were all coaching we would be doing the exact same thing....it would look like a ####### pinball machine if I was coaching that team....

they are also in a division with some high scoring teams (NOS-CAR)....seems like they may be taking the approach of we will match you score for score and just try to outscore you instead of game planning to slow the game down....

hang on to what you think Ryan has done in the past if you want...it means NOTHING this year....

 
12 team, nonppr, 2 rb, 3 wr considering him in the 3rd round. he wouldn't make it back in the 4th round. not sure i am comfortable with romo, rivers, peyton etc.

 
I grabbed him last week at 5.07, and I don't think I would have jumped higher. At this point, I think he would be out of my price range, because I don't think he is much better than Eli, Rivers, etc...even though I like him slightly better.

 
He went with the first pick in my draft last night.... :confused:

Brees and Rodgers were keepers, but Brady was available...

F'n crazy.

 
I've given over to ranking Ryan as QB6 ahead of Vick. I used to think that Vick had a higher PPG upside but Ryan was a safer bet to play in 16 games. Now I see their PPG upside as about equal, and with Ryan you don't have the injury risk that Vick has. You could overcome that with a good backup QB, but you can't do anything when Vick gets hurt in the 2nd quarter and guarantees a loss for you that week.

Just did this draft:

Rodgers - 1.05

Brady - 1.06

Cam - 2.03

Stafford - 2.04

Ryan - 4.11

Vick - 5.03

Given that drop off between Stafford and Ryan, I'd still say Ryan is a decent value.

 
'LOCO said:
12 team, nonppr, 2 rb, 3 wr considering him in the 3rd round. he wouldn't make it back in the 4th round. not sure i am comfortable with romo, rivers, peyton etc.
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I'm with you. There's no way I'm in position to get the top 5 QBs (Rogers, Brees, Brady, Stafford or Newton) I'm not comfortable with Romo, Rivers, Vick or Peyton so that leaves Ryan and Eli. I could wait for Cutler or Rothlesbergerbut personally they scare me too.
 
I pick 1.01 in a 12 team ppr league. I REALLY want to wait until the 6.12/7.01 turn to grab a QB but if there is a run (which I am expecting), I may be forced to consider him at the 4.12/5.01 turn. I really am hoping one of the top 3 TEs falls to me at that 4.12/5.01 turn so I have a good reason to wait further on a QB.

 
if you are sitting in the top half/two thirds of your draft....he may require a 3rd round pick to guarantee getting him....the owners in the back half of the draft will know that he probably would not make it back to them at the end of the 5th, so if they want him they will take him late 3rd early 4th....so to beat them to the punch and make sure you get him, it will cost a third....

 
Went 4.02, 38th overall in my redraft (mix of very good owners and a few not so good) last night. start 1-2-3-1 no flex, PPR. 6th QB off the board:

Rodgers 1.03

Brees 1.06

Brady 1.07

Stafford 2.05

Cam 2.09

Cutler went very late as someone's backup QB, he's screaming value IMO.

 
I really don't see a big difference between him, Eli, Rivers, and Romo. A little more worried about Romo with the problems around him, but I still think he's solid and not a big step down from the other 3. Given Ryan's escalating price I'm probably passing on him. Almost universally own Julio though.

 
id rather get a top 5 qb than struggle finding the best of the rest. less options than trying to find that valuable rb/wr. if ryan blows up, congrats. he'll be right where my top 5 qb already is

 
'meatwad1 said:
Just remember that people were sky high on him last year too....I would not feel that good having him on my team in any round, and there is no way I would consider him in 3rd, 4th, or 5th round.My reasoning is that I think that is a. very conservative and afraid to air it out recklessly, and b. he is a choker, which goes hand in hand with how conservative he is. Despite the fact he has a lot of talent around him, I do not see him as somebody who makes players better, better players make him better. What happens when those players get injured?
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The people who were high on him last year were logically premature, or taking a risk. There was reason to believe Julio and the new system would improve things, but it remained to be seen.Those people jumped the gun, but still did okay, since he was in the 4200/30 range in total production.This year, there's no doubt about Julio's ability to produce, and everybody's healthy heading into the season. People who were high on him last year were vindicated, and that looks to any educated eye to be reasonably close to his floor this season.If you're not high on him, you're just not very good at this hobby.
 
'degenerate said:
id rather get a top 5 qb than struggle finding the best of the rest. less options than trying to find that valuable rb/wr. if ryan blows up, congrats. he'll be right where my top 5 qb already is
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Was. Ryan's knocking at least one of these guys out.
 
'degenerate said:
id rather get a top 5 qb than struggle finding the best of the rest. less options than trying to find that valuable rb/wr. if ryan blows up, congrats. he'll be right where my top 5 qb already is
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this is almost how it will really end up....as Ryan is kinda of working his way into that no man's land...one side of you almost thinks "well if I'm going to spend a 3rd rounder on him to guarantee I get him, why not just go ahead and blow a 1st or 2nd on one of the other studs"....comes down to what your projections for him are....because there will be at least one guy in every league that will be willing to pounce on him with hope that he creeps up into that new territory of 5000/40....if you're paying attention at all....it really looks like he could seriously distance himself from the group/tier that he has been associated with for the last few years...
 
I've been comfortable taking him around 50th overall. Highest I've seen him go in one of my read drafts is 35 overall.

In my early drafts I thought I was reaching, now-a-days if he's there, I feel lucky.

 
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'Zeff said:
If you're not high on him, you're just not very good at this hobby.
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I'm not seeing a signifcant difference between him and Eli, Rivers, and Romo. Vick and Peyton are different animals because they carry more risk, but add them all up and you have 11 valuable QB's. There's also reason to believe guys like Cutler, Schaub, Roethlisberger, and Carson could creep into this convo too. Don't forget the rookies either.I don't think de-valuaing Ryan has as much to do with how good he could be as much as it does the replacement options available.
 
'One said:
'David Yudkin said:
'Hipple said:
'12punch said:
'David Yudkin said:
He went 11th overall in one of our FBG staff leagues and 23rd in the other. The hype is in full force over him at this point.
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Who did?
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This has to be a 2 qb league.
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No. 14 team league, start 1 QB.
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I asked this in a similar thread. Love how Yudkin is keeping the person a secret. My guess is Mark Wimer. :D
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if you break this down a little....a case could be made for it not being totally crazy....the scoring rules in this league may favor having a stud QB....some leagues don't give PPR for RB's etc....so say Rodgers, Brady, Brees go in the top 10.....your sitting at 11 and you think Newton's numbers got to come down and you're not sold on Stafford......what you've seen so far from Ryan and ATL is that they could GO OFF this year...if you are sitting at 11 in the above situation and there will be 3 guys picking after you totaling 6 picks.....and those guys won't pick again for over 20+ picks....good chance one of them may feel the same way you do in this league where 3 QB's have already gone in the top 10 and one of those guys may take him around the turn.....along with Stafford and Cam....so in order to get Ryan instead of those two or even one of the top 6 you need to pull the trigger in the first.....
 
'One said:
'David Yudkin said:
'Hipple said:
'12punch said:
'David Yudkin said:
He went 11th overall in one of our FBG staff leagues and 23rd in the other. The hype is in full force over him at this point.
Click to expand...
Who did?
Click to expand...
This has to be a 2 qb league.
Click to expand...
No. 14 team league, start 1 QB.
Click to expand...
I asked this in a similar thread. Love how Yudkin is keeping the person a secret. My guess is Mark Wimer. :D
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I am not so sure it was a secret, I don't remember anyone asking. But yes you are correct.
 
'MAC_32 said:
'Zeff said:
If you're not high on him, you're just not very good at this hobby.
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I'm not seeing a signifcant difference between him and Eli, Rivers, and Romo. Vick and Peyton are different animals because they carry more risk, but add them all up and you have 11 valuable QB's. There's also reason to believe guys like Cutler, Schaub, Roethlisberger, and Carson could creep into this convo too. Don't forget the rookies either.I don't think de-valuaing Ryan has as much to do with how good he could be as much as it does the replacement options available.
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Vick I'll grant you, but...If you can't see the difference between Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez vs. Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meachem, and Antonio Gates.... :unsure: If you can't see the difference between the Falcons and the Cowboys O-lines, not to mention an injured Miles Austin and Jason Witten, not to mention a healthy Murray vs. an old Turner... :unsure: If you can't see a difference between playing in a dome vs. outside in the meadowlands, not to mention Bradshaw + Wilson vs. Turner + Quizz... :unsure: If you can't see the difference between 36 years old, on a new team, with a run first coach, after not playing football for something like 20 months, in the grass... against an in-his-prime Ryan, running the same system he's become comfortable with, after steadily improving each and every season... :unsure:Then I agree with the original statement.
 
Can't decide if I would use an early 5th round pick on him, or wait to see if he will fall to a late 6th round pick. I would probably pass in the 5th round, and if he didn't make it back to me, just draft someone else in the early 7th.

 
'RalphMouth said:
'David Yudkin said:
He went 11th in one of our FBG staff leagues and 23rd in the other. The hype is in full force over him at this point.
Click to expand...
David- Are you on board his hype train ? What's your projections for him this year? I really think his value has skyrocketed not only because of his WRs & the new ATL offensive philosophy but also the fact that Romo, Rivers & Vick all look scary (in a bad way)
Click to expand...
I was more onboard when he could be had a more in the middle roads than in the first few rounds. Zt this point he would need to have a career year to be worth where I have seen him drafted, and not just a career year for him, like a career year for Brett Favre.I would guess Ryan might end up at 4200-4300 yards and 30-32 TDs. That really does mean much taken in context, so I would point out that that is a decent amount less than I would project the Rodgers / Bradys / Brees of the world. I haappen to think that the top QBs will score closer to what they did last year than others. Maybe not mutiple guys with 5000 yards or 40 TDs, but I think there may be one or two that make those levels and a couple right near there.
 
I hate trying to predict the round a player will be drafted because every league is so variable when it comes to scoring and the tendencies of owners. I think it is much better to state where a particular player ranks relative to other players at the same position and let everyone decide what that means for their particular draft.

Right now I have Ryan as the #10 ranked QB on my board but I can see the arguments to put him all the way up to #5. So I guess the answer is that I could see drafting him as the 5th QB off the board. In my league that makes him a mid 2nd round pick but, of course, YMMV.

 
'karmarooster said:
'MAC_32 said:
'Zeff said:
If you're not high on him, you're just not very good at this hobby.
Click to expand...
I'm not seeing a signifcant difference between him and Eli, Rivers, and Romo. Vick and Peyton are different animals because they carry more risk, but add them all up and you have 11 valuable QB's. There's also reason to believe guys like Cutler, Schaub, Roethlisberger, and Carson could creep into this convo too. Don't forget the rookies either.I don't think de-valuaing Ryan has as much to do with how good he could be as much as it does the replacement options available.
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Vick I'll grant you, but...If you can't see the difference between Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez vs. Malcolm Floyd, Robert Meachem, and Antonio Gates.... :unsure: If you can't see the difference between the Falcons and the Cowboys O-lines, not to mention an injured Miles Austin and Jason Witten, not to mention a healthy Murray vs. an old Turner... :unsure: If you can't see a difference between playing in a dome vs. outside in the meadowlands, not to mention Bradshaw + Wilson vs. Turner + Quizz... :unsure: If you can't see the difference between 36 years old, on a new team, with a run first coach, after not playing football for something like 20 months, in the grass... against an in-his-prime Ryan, running the same system he's become comfortable with, after steadily improving each and every season... :unsure:Then I agree with the original statement.
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Who were Rivers' WR's in 2010 when he went for 4710/30?Didn't Romo operate behind an awful line last year without Austin for most of the season, a healthy Austin for all but 2 games, and an unconditioned Dez? He put up 4184/31 while missing all but 2 plays in one game and playing when he should not have (broken ribs) vs. Washington.Didn't Eli Manning throw for 4933/29 with essentially the same weapons as last year except this year he basically doesn't have a rookie in Cruz?I'm not going to argue for Peyton, I have him last among the 11 and am happy to see there's someone in every league taking him before all of these other guys but all of them have 5000/30+ upside. I'll happily take the one that slips.
 
'Chaka said:
I hate trying to predict the round a player will be drafted because every league is so variable when it comes to scoring and the tendencies of owners. I think it is much better to state where a particular player ranks relative to other players at the same position and let everyone decide what that means for their particular draft.Right now I have Ryan as the #10 ranked QB on my board but I can see the arguments to put him all the way up to #5. So I guess the answer is that I could see drafting him as the 5th QB off the board. In my league that makes him a mid 2nd round pick but, of course, YMMV.
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:goodposting:
 
I'll let the guppies reach for Ryan while I am scooping up the WR/RB on the board. I'll take my chances with Cutler, Griffin, etc.

 
Fair points. I tend to think that Rivers throwing for 4700 with crappy WRs in 2010 was an outlier, and that he's not likely to do it again, but he at least had a few more options then. For one, Gates was 2 years younger and on a Randy Moss TD record-pace through about 8 games. And Rivers had Sproles, and VJax for part of the season. Rivers is also now 30, whereas then he was 28, and clearly regressed a bit last year. I guess it's looking at two different sides of the same coin, where you're saying 2010 Rivers is what we should expect, and I'm thinking 2011 Rivers is more likely. In any case, Rivers was 28 that season, and Ryan will be 27 this season. I think the point about Ryan entering his prime still stands. And just because Rivers did it once with crappy WRs is not a reason for me to take him over Ryan (or pass on Ryan in favor of Rivers)... clearly I'm going to select the QB with the best weapons.

Eli did have a great year last year with virtually the same weapons, minus Manningham and some TEs. But I suspect the Giants running game will improve this year compared to last, whereas I think the Falcons run game will be slightly worse overall, and more suited to check-downs with Quizz rather than 3 yard runs up the middle with Turner.

As for Romo, his O-line is even worse than last year. And he lost a valuable 3WR in Robinson. And Witten is hurt. And Murray now looks like a beast to start the season.

Again, you have to look pretty hard for reasons NOT to like Ryan of the mid-range QB options. I can't think of a single factor, from WRs and TEs, to the expected strength of schedule, to preseason play, to a declining and aging RB in Turner, to a clearly stated offensive philosophy that favors shotgun-spread, no huddle formation, to the dome, to the opposing defenses in the NFC South (Saints, Bucs, arguably Panthers). The ONLY legit negative with Ryan is that he hasn't had a season better than last year, so some argue "you have to be expecting a career year out of him." Well guess what, players generally have career years in their athletic prime when they are surrounded by weapons and in a favorable system.

 
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Late 5th and no sooner. I could not believe he went 25 spots ahead of Vick one of the MFL10s I just drafted. I took Vick at 6.02. Wasn't he a mid-round first last year? o.0

At this rate Ryan is going to be as overrated as Marshall this season. Hey, they both might have good seasons, but you're deluding yourself if you think either will finish top 5 in their respective positions.

 
'Warrior said:
'David Yudkin said:
He went 11th overall in one of our FBG staff leagues and 23rd in the other. The hype is in full force over him at this point.
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And thus starts my search for a new Fantasy Football advice website...pathetic.
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OMG!!! ONE STAFFER HAS A GUY RANKED OUT OF LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS!!!Never mind the other dozen or so staffers. Check the box to exclude any staffer you want in the rankings, then move on. :rolleyes:
 
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