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FanDuel/DraftKings Week 9 (1 Viewer)

Just curious why I'm seeing different percentage owned in two Thursday FD leagues. One has Hill at 17.3%, the other at 7.5%. Are they based on that contest only? The way people talk it seemed the percentages were based off all contests site-wide.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Do I want Player X on my roster?

Fantasy Points Scored (relative to price) High Low +------------+------------+ | | | High | Yes | No | | | |Ownership % +------------+------------+ | | | Low | Yes | No | | | | +------------+------------+
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Exactly. The goal is points accumulation. The whole uniqueness thing is WAY overblown. Who cares if 60% of owners had Ingram? His return on investment was great. If Hill scores 18 I'm not going to care that 70% owned him.
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This is true, but one thing worth considering, and mentioned by Wadsworth and Maurile, is that a very high ownership also mitigates the damage done by a bad game. I'm actually a bit worried about Hill paying off big like a lot of folks seem to think, but i'm running him anyway because it's a good way to free up money in other places and even if it doesn't work out, probably most of my opponents will take that knock as well.

 
That's why I'm comfortable with Hill in all of my lineups (playing mostly double ups). I almost always hedge against 100% on any one player (e.g. last week got some money off Jordy and put it on Dez, that helped a little), but will Hill, if he puts up something like 7 points, it's no big deal. If he puts up 20, it's not going to win any single game for you since he'll probably approach 50% ownership now (same as McK last week). OTOH, if he puts up 20 and you don't have him, will be very hard to climb up to the money.

 
Back on the grind

QBs -- Kaep, Luck

RB -- ellington, foster, hill

WR -- Houston, Wallace, sanders, t. Williams

TE -- julius, Kelce

D -- Browns, Seattle

K -- McManus, take your pick...

Have 3 cash game lineups composed of these players

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
ffinmyblood said:
So it appears to me that the interactive value charts for DFS are based on Cash games, is that a fair assumption?? Hmmm, so how would one use those then for GPP's?? Or would value still be value regardless, and points be points, or would the projections be completely different??
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They're intended to be helpful to find lineups for both cash games and tournaments.

The value charts should help you find lineups that are expected to score a lot of points. That should be the main objective in either type of contest.

To further refine things, in cash games, you mainly want players with high floors, while in tournaments you may prefer players with high ceilings. In cash games, you may have a slight preference against QB-WR combos, while in tournaments your preference may favor them. In cash games, you shouldn't care at all about how widely owned a player is, while in tournaments you may have a preference for players not so widely owned.

You have to do that further refinement on your own -- but I think a lot of that refinement is overblown anyway.

With some exceptions, generally the high-floor guys are the high-ceiling guys. (DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster, Andrew Luck, Antonio Bryant, etc.) When someone is expected to score a decent number of points, he'll usually have both a higher floor and a higher ceiling than someone with a lesser projection. There are a few exceptions here and there (e.g., Charles Sims may have a lower floor and higher ceiling this week than many RBs with similar projections), but for the most part such situations are relatively minor.

On the QB-WR (or QB-TE) stacks, it's perfectly possible to build a great cash-game lineup that includes a stack, or to build a great tournament lineup without a stack. Stacking is something that increases variance at the margin (which is good for tournaments, bad for cash games), but the effect is rather smaller than most people believe, I think.

Similarly, on percentage owned, by far the more important consideration is that the player you select outscore the players your opponents select. Given that the player you select outscores your opponents' corresponding players by five points, in a tournament you'd rather have a guy who's 5% owned (thus giving you an edge over 95% of the field) than a guy who's 40% owned (thus giving you an edge over 60% of the field) -- but by far the more important consideration is that you have an edge at all by picking the higher-scoring player. [in a cash game, the possibility of having an edge over 95% of the field is offset by the possibility of being at a disadvantage compared to 95% of the field. In a tournament, you'd prefer the 95% swing either way to the 60% swing either way because the possibility of an extreme benefit more than offsets the possibility of an extreme detriment.] Still, though, I think the quest for uncommonly owned players is generally overblown. You establish uniqueness through your overall lineup, not through any one given position, and your overall lineup is likely to be unique even if it comprises individual players who are [SIZE=14.4444446563721px]commonly owned[/SIZE].

In my opinion, a good lineup is a good lineup, no matter the type of contest. There are some theoretical differences between the optimal cash-game lineup and the optimal tournament lineup, but as a practical matter, by far the most important factor in either is putting together a lineup that is expected to score a lot of points.

To the extent that you do want to differentiate between cash-game lineups and tournament lineups (as you should if you're looking to extract every ounce of EV possible -- just don't put more emphasis on the differences than is warranted), there are two basic approaches:

(1) Start with what kind of contest you're entering, and find a lineup that fits that contest. If you're in a cash-game contest, you may want to exclude players with low floors compared to their projections, like Charles Sims. If you're in a tournament, you may want to enter a QB-WR stack as part of your lineup before letting the app fill in the blanks. You may want to enter a sparsely owned player into your lineup before filling in the blanks. And so on.

(2) Start with a high-scoring lineup, and find a contest that the lineup is well suited for. Just find a lineup expected to score as many points as possible, and then examine the lineup to see if it has more cash-game characteristics or tournament characteristics. Does it have a QB-receiver stack? Is it filled with boom-or-bust players or Steady Eddies? And so on. Based on the characteristics of the lineup, determine whether it should be entered in a cash game or a tournament.

You can use either of those approaches with the interactive value charts to craft lineups for both cash games and tournaments.
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I'd imagine he would come at a super cheap price :cool: (ba dum , tsh...of course you could put a comma in there and account to two applicable candidates :bowtie: )

Ok, carry on. Love these threads and the discussion and strategic opinions account for good material.

 
If Romo is out does Weeden become a decent play @ $5000 in FD? I don't think he's awesome by any stretch but the Cards aren't good against the pass and it wouldn't take much to return value at that salary. Am I missing something?

 
If anyone is interested in a $20,000 guaranteed freeroll tomorrow, I have a buddy who knows a couple people with interest in Fantasy Draft (currently in beta testing mode). There is currently around 1,200 entrants and pays out the top 300 spots. They pay out in "Fantasy Cash" so you will not be able to immediately withdrawal any money won, but you can use that to enter into other games, when the site goes live. Costs nothing to sign up, and the payout odds are currently pretty good, paying out the top 25% ($2,500 to first) with the current amount of entrants.

If you are interested in signing up, you can use the following link: Fantasy Draft Daily Site

Was going to post a new thread, but figured this was as good of place as any, since everyone in this thread already plays daily fantasy to some degree. If you happen to sign up, good luck tomorrow! :thumbup:

 
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Gustavo Fring said:
There is currently around 1,200 entrants and pays out the top 300 spots.
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I was going to ask for the name of the contest, but I just found it:

NFL Sunday + Monday $20K FREEROLL (Sun-Mon)

[SIZE=14.4444446563721px]Thanks for the heads up![/SIZE]

 
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DraftKings Lineup, good luck today gentleman

QB Weeden

RB Ellington

RB Hillman

WR Dez

WR Smith Sr.

WR Hawkins

Flex Hill

TE Gronk

D 49ers

 
Question for the masses and specifically Maurile....when you construct a team particularly in a GPP, do you give ANY consideration at all to whether a guy is playing in the Sunday/Monday night game?? Or is it the thought "points are points". I have this discussion with friends all the time...is there a particular advantage at all to having a Monday night player "to fall back on"?? Or does it just feel like that's an advantage?? From having played many GPP's I can tell you, because a lot of the field is already done by Monday night, your climb can be astronomical. From my observations, it is also rare(but does happen) the player occupying the top spot after the Sunday night games, holds on to that spot after the Monday night games. So i go back and forth on this all the time. Advantage?? Or no advantage at all??

 
For what it's worth, I'm really having some good returns at FantasyUp, which is covered by the Interactive Value Chart. I think the Zero Rake and low number of sharks is really helping my play.

 
Just inserted Weeden into the majority of my cash games. Hopefully I don't get bit yet again by the cheap qbs. Worked well last year, but I've been sung with it a few times this year.

 
ffinmyblood said:
Question for the masses and specifically Maurile....when you construct a team particularly in a GPP, do you give ANY consideration at all to whether a guy is playing in the Sunday/Monday night game?? Or is it the thought "points are points". I have this discussion with friends all the time...is there a particular advantage at all to having a Monday night player "to fall back on"?? Or does it just feel like that's an advantage?? From having played many GPP's I can tell you, because a lot of the field is already done by Monday night, your climb can be astronomical. From my observations, it is also rare(but does happen) the player occupying the top spot after the Sunday night games, holds on to that spot after the Monday night games. So i go back and forth on this all the time. Advantage?? Or no advantage at all??
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Once the lineups are set, it doesn't matter what order the games are played in.

On a site like DraftKings that has a late swap, there may be an advantage to playing one or more guys in the Monday night game. In that case, on Monday afternoon, you can evaluate whether you need safe points or need to swing for the fences, and you can adjust your lineup accordingly. But I think that's pretty far down the list of things to consider when setting your original lineup.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Gustavo Fring said:
There is currently around 1,200 entrants and pays out the top 300 spots.
Click to expand...
I was going to ask for the name of the contest, but I just found it:

NFL Sunday + Monday $20K FREEROLL (Sun-Mon)

[SIZE=14.4444446563721px]Thanks for the heads up![/SIZE]
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That's the one - should have mentioned that in my original post. Thanks for posting for others who may be looking for the contest!

 
Hopefully I don't regret this, but I am VERY heavy on Hill this week. He just frees up so much salary for other players and he doesn't have to do much to meet his value.

 
(HULK) said:
Just inserted Weeden into the majority of my cash games. Hopefully I don't get bit yet again by the cheap qbs. Worked well last year, but I've been sung with it a few times this year.
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Had Weeden in a couple GPPs but now that he is starting for sure considering him in cash games.

 
What's a realistic projection for Weeden? I'm a Cowboy fan so I'm afraid I can't be objective. I'm putting it pretty high for a minimum-QB salary guy, but that might just be my rose-colored glasses. I'm struggling to see the downside of virtually all of my lineups including a $5000 Weeden and a $5200 Hill. Someone play Devil's Advocate for me please.

EDIT: FBG just updated their projections. Thank you, guys.

 
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Well, about 50% of my money is now wagered on Weeden at QB. I hope he's at least adequate. I figured Ingram would be the most-owned Thursday night guy and Hill would be the most-owned Sunday-Monday guy. I'm not convinced Weeden won't challenge for that title.

 
I'm trying DraftKings for the first time this week. I like the interface a lot. Very easy to navigate and use.

I'm not feeling great about Weeden...I'm a little afriad the Cowboys stink it up out there and turn it over a few times...but my lineup looks a heck of a lot better with him in it, so long as he can muster a couple hundred yards and a couple TD's...so it is hard to resist.

 
I hate that FD is now not starting any new low buy in tourneys on Sunday morning. We are still 2 hours from game time and there is currently 1 tourney with a buy in under $10. Lame.

 
Is there a subscriber link that shows how the sample lineup that FG Staff (e.g. Dodds) posted would have fared each week in FanDuel? Would the lineup been in the money or not? Thanks.

 
Line up for this week...(FanDuel)

Weeden

McCoy

Hill

D Thomas

Anotonio Brown

Mike Evans

Julios Thomas

McManus

Chiefs

 
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Wadsworth said:
I hate that FD is now not starting any new low buy in tourneys on Sunday morning. We are still 2 hours from game time and there is currently 1 tourney with a buy in under $10. Lame.
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What I can't figure out is why? I thought they just wanted as much money in as they can get. These things used to fill up as fast as they could put them out. I don't get it unless they assume people will just raise to a higher buy in.

 
Gonna take a shot on AJ Green and Percy in GPP...hoping they would not be letting Green play unless 100% and Percy should continue to get more involved in that awful Jets offense, maybe this week is the week he does somethign.

 
With Simms not going to play I think Rainey becomes a very interesting option against the browns. Likely to get a heavy workload and be involved in the passing game against a poor run DT.

 
BuffaloWings said:
Is there a subscriber link that shows how the sample lineup that FG Staff (e.g. Dodds) posted would have fared each week in FanDuel? Would the lineup been in the money or not? Thanks.
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No, not this year. I think it's a good idea and something like that may be added next year.

 
msudaisy26 said:
The only tight end I feel good about this week is Gronk. Who does everyone else like?
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I am playing primarily Gronk, but I have Donnell in some and Davis in a couple GPPs paired with Kaepernick. Also have Kelce in a couple GPPs and Paired Witten with Weeden in a GPP.

Gronk and Donnell are my main 2 though.

 
msudaisy26 said:
The only tight end I feel good about this week is Gronk. Who does everyone else like?
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Heath and Donnell. Indy's corners are very good opening up Donnell to be targeted a lot. I just have a feeling about Heath, no info to back it up. Both are 5400 on Fanduel.
 
snellman said:
msudaisy26 said:
The only tight end I feel good about this week is Gronk. Who does everyone else like?
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I am playing primarily Gronk, but I have Donnell in some and Davis in a couple GPPs paired with Kaepernick. Also have Kelce in a couple GPPs and Paired Witten with Weeden in a GPP.

Gronk and Donnell are my main 2 though.
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We have the same line of thinking. I am just not sure if I want him in half my cash games

 
Wadsworth said:
I hate that FD is now not starting any new low buy in tourneys on Sunday morning. We are still 2 hours from game time and there is currently 1 tourney with a buy in under $10. Lame.
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amen

 
msudaisy26 said:
snellman said:
msudaisy26 said:
The only tight end I feel good about this week is Gronk. Who does everyone else like?
Click to expand...
I am playing primarily Gronk, but I have Donnell in some and Davis in a couple GPPs paired with Kaepernick. Also have Kelce in a couple GPPs and Paired Witten with Weeden in a GPP.

Gronk and Donnell are my main 2 though.
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We have the same line of thinking. I am just not sure if I want him in half my cash games
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Don't like the weather but I still have him in 90% of my lineups. Just don't like anyone else, and Hill gave me the salary room. With 6 teams on bye I didn't see that many upgrades to use the salary on even in other positions.

 
Joe T said:
Wadsworth said:
I hate that FD is now not starting any new low buy in tourneys on Sunday morning. We are still 2 hours from game time and there is currently 1 tourney with a buy in under $10. Lame.
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amen
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I wonder if part of it is because there are so many openings left in their $3 M contest and they are trying to get them filled. They normally open quiet a few $5 double ups on Sun Morning and there have not been any so far this week.

 
bp_ said:
Joe T said:
Pantherz said:
ctrlaltdefeat said:
tournaments under $10? there are plenty $5 $2 $1 ones all over
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On Fanduel? Not showing for me.
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Not showing for me either. annoying.
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They must be having issues. I see them briefly when switching back and forth between contest types but then they grey out
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Could be happening when someone cancels an entry. If the tournament is full, it won't appear. Then if one person cancels their entry, it will briefly appear in the lobby again until someone enters and it fills up again.

 
Pulled Manny sanders, replaced with TY (although 20 mph winds in NYC too). McManus swapped out for cundiff.

Not sure what to think in NE -- id probably bump Julius and Welker and drop Sanders and Hillman.

 
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