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HERD's NFL Mock - Candy Canes and Santa edition (1 Viewer)

Colin Dowling

Footballguy
Things are finally sorting out. This is 2 rounds (as the rest will be) b/c I think that a lot of discussion/disagreement can be resolved when you see who your team could grab in round 2. KC is a perfect example, getting a top-flight CB and a huge OT in the first 2 rounds. :sadbanana: . Anyway, have at it...

1. Miami - Matt Ryan - QB - BC - Dorsey would be a good choice too, but I think it's a quarterback and Ryan is the best of the bunch. As I've said before, if you were to compare the QBs going in round one, my view is that the comparisons would be as follows: Ryan = Carson Palmer, Woodson = Leftwich (not b/c of skin color but b/c he isn't very mobile, is most comfortable from the gun, and has a long delivery), and Brohm = Chris Simms. The Dolphins had plenty of bad luck with injuries and wit the '72 team finally being shut up this season, and will look to jump-start the once proud franchise with a new face. That won't be John Beck.



2. St. Louis - Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU - This is kind of like getting two top-notch 1st rounders for one as Adam Carriker can now move back outside full time. My opinion is that Dorsey is great against the pocket and merely good against the run. The good news is that improving against the run is easier then improving in the pass-rush. Dorsey doesn't have the size to be a true lane-clogger, but his agility is underrated (even as a top-2 pick) and will be magnified on the turf, and a couple years of seasoning should make the Rams D a lot tougher to run on.



3. NYJets - Darren McFadden - RB - UA - "The Jets have other problems!" "Thomas Jones can still run!" "We need more O-line help!" "Let's draft a true franchise QB!" "McFadden's legs are skinny!" Did I miss any? McFadden's not slipping out of the top-3, especially when the #3 pick belongs to the largest media market in the sport and the New England Patriots are 2 picks away. Plus, the O-line talent in this draft between picks 40 and 100 is the deepest of any position with no fewer then 20 guys who are better then everyone on the Falcons O-line (I'm only slightly exaggerating). There will be plenty of time to get linemen later, and the Jets aren't paying top-3 money to a 2nd tackle when they're already paying for D'Brick.

4. Atlanta Falcons - Jake Long - OT - UM - The Falcons line is bad. Worse then bad. Long is the best of the bunch this year, but my opinion is that he's a good tackle but not ever likely to be a Pace, Ogden, Jones type. However, when dealing with the lack of talent in Atlanta on the line, he'll be a marked improvement and help their 2nd round pick (*spoiler*) flourish.

5. New England - Chris Long - DE - UVA - Rich. Get. Richer. But hey, at least the Niners have Joe Staley! This draft has about 6 or 7 really strong DEs and about 10 or 12 more who will play on Sundays. That said, Long is the best of the bunch by far.

6. Baltimore - Andre Woodson - QB - UK - New coach, new quarterback. I don't understand the rub on Woodson. He has the best mechanics of any prospect in half a decade, plays very well against tough competition, and near single-handedly carried a basketball school to a top-10 ranking at one point in the season. He can make ALL the throws, tosses a great deep ball as the deep-out, and has phenomenal size. I compared him to Leftwich earlier, which I think is fair. (Try and remember that less then 12 months ago, Leftwich was a top 12 fantasy QB throwing to Matt Jones and Ernest Wilford.)



7. Kansas City - Malcolm Jenkins - CB - OSU - Corner is very weak in this draft wherein OL is deep, which I think will lead KC to taking a corner first and shoring up the line later.

[first shot of Brohm in the Greenroom...still laughing and loving life...]



8. Oakland - Sedric Ellis - DT - USC - Sapp is getting old and the Raider D, believe it or not, isn't all that bad. Ellis will add plenty of girth to the middle.

9. Cincinnati - Kenny Phillips - S - UM - They'd much rather have Ellis, but Phillips is hardly a bad consolation prize. Compared to former UM safeties, he's not a hitter like Taylor nor a ballhawk like either Reed or Taylor. However, Phililps (as a collegian) has a better sense of the play then either of those two did and should make a fine field general for the Bengals.

10. Chicago - Ryan Clady - OT - BSU - Cut Cedric Benson! Draft Mendenhall! You know, RON TURNER HAS ILLINI TIES! Not happening. Benson was bad, but the O-line was wretched. Clady is a solid tackle who should get snaps right away to help the Bears keep the defense out of the backfield. Put me in the camp that also thinks Rex Grossman is back.

11. Arizona - Rashard Mendenhall - RB - UI - Anyone else think that a talented two-headed running game would have the Cards, and not the Vikings, poised for the playoffs? Me too. There will be people on the boards who try and fool themselves in to thinking Mendenhall is as good as McFadden or in for a better career. Don't buy it. That said, with Kevin Smith not coming out, Mendenhall should clearly be RB2 in this draft.



12. Denver - Keith Rivers - LB - USC Rivers has been up and down, but when he's on his game, he's a beast.

13. Carolina - Phil Loadholt - OT - OU - I expect Loadholt to race up boards come draft time. He's got great size and has had a solid season. Carolina has plenty of issues on the offensive side of the ball, but they need help up front first and foremost.

[shot of Brohm looking somewhat concerned, but still forcing a smile....]

14. Detroit - Derrick Harvey - DE - UF - Harvey reminds a bit of Jevon Kearse. He has excellent speed off the corner and while he takes plays off on occasion, he is better against the run than many ends.



15. Philadelphia - Vernon Gholston - DE - OSU - Gholston is a tackling machine capable of taking over games from the end position. If Kearse becomes a cap-casualty, Gholston would be a nice addition.



16. New Orleans - Frank Okam - DT - UTexas - I realize that I have Okam higher then most, but he is every bit as agile as Dorsey and has better size. Think: Albert Haynesworth or John Henderson. He's a big lane clogger and gets his rangey arms in the way of LOTS of passes. Some will say he went too early; I think 16 is actually a "slip."



17. Buffalo - Dan Conner - LB - PSU - Sometime soon, the scrappy folks in Buffalo are going to have everything come together all at once and they're going to be REALLY good, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Conner has a great motor and sheds blocks very well. A nice find at 17.

[shot of Brohm looking white as a ghost...]

18. Houston - Calais Campbell - DE - UM - seriously? Yup. 4 straight 1st rounders on Dline. And it is going to pay HUGE dividends in the years going forward as Mario and Campbell agitate Manning and VY (among others).



19. Washington - Marcus Griffin - S - UTexas - I'm not sure why Griffin isn't getting more love at Safety. This is a position that the Redskins relied on heavily, and matched with Laron Landry, they can rely on the safety position again. Griffin has good coverage ability and while he isn't an especially heavy-hitter, he is a solid tackler and reads the field very well.



20. Tennessee - Limas Sweed - WR - Texas - Forget the VY connection, even though the two were excellent together at Texas. Sweed is the most athletic receiver in the draft. No, he may not have the speed/moves of Jackson or Manningham, but he makes tough catches in traffic and has excellent "get the ball near me and I'll catch it" -ness. Sweed has a number of catches that look like Fitzgerald's Pitt highlight tape and while highlights are highlights, his ability to do something the Titans receivers can't do (catch the ball when a DB is nearby) makes him a better pick here then other WRs. Sweed spent part of the year injured, but that will be a thing of the past come draft day.

21. Minnesota Quentin Groves - DE - Auburn - [espn]Cue a shot of Brian Brohm in the Greenroom in 3...2...1...[/espn] Groves is far too inconsistent for my liking, but when he's "on", he's every bit as good a pass rusher as Harvey or Long. Erasmus James can't stay healthy, so the Vikings need to start making plans for improving the rush-ends. As for Brohm, Trarvrarirs Jackson has the Vikings on the cusp of the playoffs despite having very raw talent to throw too. What else do you want from the 2nd year man?

[shot of Brohm chugging a bottle of tequila...]



22. Seattle - James Laurinaitis - LB - OSU - This may be a hair low for the Road Warrior's son, but when Laurinaitis is at his best, he's really stinking good. The Seahawk's defense is fairly inconsistent in my opinion, so the addition of this type of mid-field talent should be a big help.

23. Dallas - Mike Jenkins - CB - USFThere are some people who think Jenkins is the better corner in the draft. I'm not sold that any of the CBs will develop in to shutdown guys, but at least 3 of them should be 3 down players.

24. Pittsburgh - Aqib Talib - DB - KU - File this pick under, "We're not winning in the AFC until we figure out how to slow down the passing games of Indy, New England and <gulp> Cleveland." Talib can play a couple positions in the D backfield.

25. Tampa Bay - Brian Brohm - QB - Louisville - ...and the long suffering nightmare is over. Gruden will get extended this season after winning his 2nd division title in 3 years. As a result, he gets to choose a player that will probably be top-15 on many boards to groom behind Jeff Garcia.

26. New York Giants - Jake Ikegwuonu - CB - UW - The Giants D has been solid this season, especially up front. Adding a cover corner like Ikegwuonu should help all around.

27. San Diego - Antoine Cason - CB - UA - The Chargers are finally starting to play the kind of football - on D and O - that many were expecting from them. Cason might have gone higher in last year's draft, but he should still sneak in to the top 40.

28. Jacksonville - Lawrence Jackson - DE - USC - It seems like Jax is always trying out new DEs and new WRs. This year is no different.



29. Green Bay - Cliff Avril - DE - Purdue - Getting some top-flight talent opposite Kampman should pay huge dividends.



30. San Fransisco - Jeff Otah - OT - Pitt - San Fran still needs help up front if they're ever going to make the jump to contender.

31. Dallas - Adarius Bowman - WR - OSU - A case can be made for Bowman as WR1. As it is here, Dallas benefits.

(I'll offer comments on the 2nd rounders as requested. Briefly, I LOVE Boone to KC. Same with Pressley to Cincy. Same with Tribble to Philly and Robertson to Tennessee)

1. Miami - Chris Ellis - DE - VT

2. NYJets - Sam Baker - OT - USC

3. Atlanta - Colt Brennan - QB - UH

4. St. Louis - Gosder Cherilus - OT - BC

5. Baltimore - Tony Hills - OT - Texas

6. Kansas City - Alex Boone - OT - OSU

7. Oakland - Jonathan Stewart - RB - UO

8. San Fransisco - Desean Jackson - WR - Cal

9. Chicago - Reggie Smith - DB - OU

10. Cincinnati - DeMario Pressley - DT - NcSt.

11. Denver - Malcolm Kelly - WR - OU

12. Carolina - Dennis Dixon - QB - Oregon

13. Detroit - Red Bryant - DT - Texas A/M

14. Philadelphia - DeJuan Tribble - CB - BC

15. Arizona - Tyson Jackson - DE - LSU

16. Buffalo - Earl Bennett - WR - Go Dores

17. Houston - Martin Rucker - TE - Mizzou

18. Washington - Mario Manningham - WR - UM

19. New Orleans - Jon Heffney - S - UT

20. Minnesota - Brian Johnston - DE - GW

21. Tennessee - Darrell Robertson - DE -GTech

22. Cleveland - Ray Rice - RB - RU

23. Pittsburgh - Marcus Harrison - DT - UA

24. Tampa Bay - Ken Iwebema - DE - Iowa

25. NYGiants - Steve Slaton - RB - WVU

26. Miami (via SD) - Keenan Burton - WR - UK

27. Seattle - Duke Robinson - OG - OU

28. Jacksonville - Early Doucet - WR - LSU

29. Indianapolis - Courtney Greene - S - Rutgers

30. Dallas - Josh Barrett - S - ASU

31. Green Bay - King Dunlap - OT - Auburn

32. New England - Phillip Wheeler - LB - Georgia Tech

 
You really think Baker is falling out of round 1?

Also, since I always address the Steelers, I wouldn't be shocked to see a CB in round 1, but I would be flabbergasted if they didn't then follow that up with OL help. Their offense goes as the line goes and with Starks and Faneca both free agents, Marvel Smith's health in question and Willie Colon's horribly erratic play, I expect the Steelers to go O-line heavy in this draft.

ETA : I also might cry if Ray Rice goes to Cleveland. Seriously.

 
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Solid work as usual Colin, but if the Steelers don't take at least 1 offensive lineman in the first two rounds, they will be in big trouble next year.

 
Colin, do you think Loadholt projects to LT? Carolina has Gross on the right side and he's not going anywhere.

 
You really think Baker is falling out of round 1?Also, since I always address the Steelers, I wouldn't be shocked to see a CB in round 1, but I would be flabbergasted if they didn't then follow that up with OL help. Their offense goes as the line goes and with Starks and Faneca both free agents, Marvel Smith's health in question and Willie Colon's horribly erratic play, I expect the Steelers to go O-line heavy in this draft.ETA : I also might cry if Ray Rice goes to Cleveland. Seriously.
Yes, I think Baker slips. There is a lot of OLine help in this draft though, so the Steelers should be able to address it for sure outside of round 1. In the 2nd, Duke Robinson (the highest rated real OG in the draft) would be a nice find for them.
I assume you feel that Felix Jones is staying in school?
:sadbanana:
 
You really think Baker is falling out of round 1?Also, since I always address the Steelers, I wouldn't be shocked to see a CB in round 1, but I would be flabbergasted if they didn't then follow that up with OL help. Their offense goes as the line goes and with Starks and Faneca both free agents, Marvel Smith's health in question and Willie Colon's horribly erratic play, I expect the Steelers to go O-line heavy in this draft.ETA : I also might cry if Ray Rice goes to Cleveland. Seriously.
If Cleveland resigns JLew and drafts Rice as his future replacement...:confused:But I'm thinking Phil will go for some DL depth as well. Hopefully the defense will be the focal point in FA allowing Savage to go BPA again in the 2nd rnd. :sadbanana:
 
I am not real big on the Bengals taking a S in the first round. Odds are that they will re-sign Madieu Williams and still have Dexter Jackson signed through 2010. Not to mention they drafted 2 S last year that they really like, White and Ndukwe. This pick MUST be a can't miss DL or LB. Their pass defense is so bad, not because of their secondary, because they get absolutely no pass rush.

You are right, Ellis is the pick if he is there; Gholston, Okam or Campbell would be a better fit than Phillips, IMO.

 
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I am not real big on the Bengals taking a S in the first round. Odds are that they will re-sign Madieu Williams and still have Dexter Jackson signed through 2010. Not to mention they drafted 2 S last year that they really like, White and Ndukwe. This pick MUST be a can't miss DL or LB. Their pass defense is so bad, not because of their secondary, because they get absolutely no pass rush.You are right, Ellis is the pick if he is there; Gholston, Okam or Campbell would be a better fit than Phillips, IMO.
Good points all. I think that Okam would be an excellent fit there, but Phillips will grade out too high to pass. The Saints would no doubt love for Phillips to fall to them.
 
25 Members: Colin Dowling, bshipper, PranksterJD, On The Rocks, vandelyons, EBF, Q-Bert, theedge, SayWhat?, Warpig, Paul89, Loopdog, minister, happy_donut, bicycle_seat_sniffer, blend, JaxBill, ATW22, scotty34, Wadsworth, paulpogo, TheWick, timintey, Maik Jeaunz, Antelope
Countdown to EBF telling me I have Stewart too low in 3...2...1... :no:

 
Look, I know you're not a Jonathan Stewart fan, but he WILL go in the first round. All of the credible experts agree on that:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/playe...s&order=ASC

http://profootballexperts.scout.com/2/703370.html

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/blog/images/jrrb.jpg

http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/nfl/draft08/index

I also expect Felix Jones to declare and be selected in the first round. I see four first round RBs this year (McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, Jones). Houston will have to look hard at both Mendenhall and Stewart. I also think Seattle will take one of those two if he falls to their pick. They need a workhorse RB in the worst way.

 
Look, I know you're not a Jonathan Stewart fan, but he WILL go in the first round. All of the credible experts agree on that:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/playe...s&order=ASC

http://profootballexperts.scout.com/2/703370.html

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/blog/images/jrrb.jpg

http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/nfl/draft08/index

I also expect Felix Jones to declare and be selected in the first round. I see four first round RBs this year (McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, Jones). Houston will have to look hard at both Mendenhall and Stewart. I also think Seattle will take one of those two if he falls to their pick. They need a workhorse RB in the worst way.
We've done this before; there are also a number of "credible experts" that have him no higher then RB6.
 
Houston and Minnesota won't go DE (ZERO chance they go DE back-to-back).

What position does Laurinaitis play with Tatupu already in the middle in Seattle?

Talib probably won't declare.

Surprised if Otah goes that late.

Gholston is a steal at 15 and Desean Jackson and Reggie Smith are highway robbery at 2.08/2.09.

Hefney is a fourth rounder or higher.

 
Sorry I don't see the Vikes going DE/DE.

They are going to have a real need at the S position next year. Sharper is not getting any younger, Dwight can't stay out of trouble, Tank and Doss aren't under contract. Sharper and Dwight are only under contract until 2008.

DE is also a concern, but not enough to warrant back to back picks, IMO.

 
Sorry I don't see the Vikes going DE/DE.They are going to have a real need at the S position next year. Sharper is not getting any younger, Dwight can't stay out of trouble, Tank and Doss aren't under contract. Sharper and Dwight are only under contract until 2008.DE is also a concern, but not enough to warrant back to back picks, IMO.
Between Robison, Edwards, and Udeze (plus holding out hope for James), there's little chance they go DE.
 
Sorry I don't see the Vikes going DE/DE.They are going to have a real need at the S position next year. Sharper is not getting any younger, Dwight can't stay out of trouble, Tank and Doss aren't under contract. Sharper and Dwight are only under contract until 2008.DE is also a concern, but not enough to warrant back to back picks, IMO.
Between Robison, Edwards, and Udeze (plus holding out hope for James), there's little chance they go DE.
Ray already has one strike for Steroids, how much faith can you put in him to stay clean? Next violation is a year I believe.
 
Sorry I don't see the Vikes going DE/DE.They are going to have a real need at the S position next year. Sharper is not getting any younger, Dwight can't stay out of trouble, Tank and Doss aren't under contract. Sharper and Dwight are only under contract until 2008.DE is also a concern, but not enough to warrant back to back picks, IMO.
Between Robison, Edwards, and Udeze (plus holding out hope for James), there's little chance they go DE.
Ray already has one strike for Steroids, how much faith can you put in him to stay clean? Next violation is a year I believe.
True, but even with that, I can't see them going DE in the first, much less back to back.They could still use another WR and DB. Please have them draft DeSean Jackson. Pretty please?
 
Look, I know you're not a Jonathan Stewart fan, but he WILL go in the first round. All of the credible experts agree on that:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/playe...s&order=ASC

http://profootballexperts.scout.com/2/703370.html

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/blog/images/jrrb.jpg

http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/nfl/draft08/index

I also expect Felix Jones to declare and be selected in the first round. I see four first round RBs this year (McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, Jones). Houston will have to look hard at both Mendenhall and Stewart. I also think Seattle will take one of those two if he falls to their pick. They need a workhorse RB in the worst way.
We've done this before; there are also a number of "credible experts" that have him no higher then RB6.
Links? Is it those clowns at Rivals or GBN? I hope not.

For the record, I'm not super high on Stewart. I don't think he's a lock to be a stud and he's not a guy I'll be going out of my way to target in my drafts. I just think you're a little bit behind the curve here. He's comparable to Maroney in terms of talent level and seems like a solid bet to go in round 1. Almost all of the sources that I trust see eye-to-eye with me on this one.

About the only reason I could see him slip into round 2 is because most of the teams in the 20-32 range have good RB situations. However, Seattle seems like a virtual lock to take one of Mendenhall/Stewart and Houston is also a real threat to take a franchise runner. There are also some teams like Tennessee, Green Bay, and NYG that could pull a minor surprise and take a back in the 1st round.

 
As a Bills fan I would be so pissed if the Bills just miss out on WR's like D.Jackson and M.Kelly nad then settle for a guy like Earl Bennett. It will remind me of just this year when the Bills settled for Lynch instead of trading up for ADP.

I haven't heard much about Bennett. Is there anything you can tell me about him?

 
As a Bills fan I would be so pissed if the Bills just miss out on WR's like D.Jackson and M.Kelly nad then settle for a guy like Earl Bennett. It will remind me of just this year when the Bills settled for Lynch instead of trading up for ADP. I haven't heard much about Bennett. Is there anything you can tell me about him?
As of right now Kelly is probably my favorite WR in the draft. I think his size and athletic ability will probably get him drafted in the first round and I think he'd be a good fit for a number of teams. Buffalo would be a great spot for him since he offers a nice contrast with Evans. Buffalo has their franchise QB and RB, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to beef up the passing attack.
 
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By team:

Arizona

Tyson Jackson DE LSU

Rashard Mendenhall RB UI

Atlanta

Colt Brennan QB UH

Jake Long OT UM

Baltimore

Tony Hills OT Texas

Andre Woodson QB UK

Buffalo

Earl Bennett WR Go Dores

Dan Conner LB PSU

Carolina

Dennis Dixon QB Oregon

Phil Loadholt OT OU

Chicago

Ryan Clady OT BSU

Reggie Smith DB OU

Cincinnati

Kenny Phillips S UM

DeMario Pressley DT NcSt.

Cleveland

Ray Rice RB RU

Dallas

Adarius Bowman WR OSU

Josh Barrett S ASU

Mike Jenkins CB USF

Denver

Malcolm Kelly WR OU

Keith Rivers LB USC

Detroit

Derrick Harvey DE UF

Red Bryant DT Texas A/M

Green Bay

Cliff Avril DE Purdue

King Dunlap OT Auburn

Houston

Calais Campbell DE UM

Martin Rucker TE Mizzou

Indianapolis

Courtney Greene S Rutgers

Jacksonville

Lawrence Jackson DE USC

Early Doucet WR LSU

Kansas City

Malcolm Jenkins CB OSU

Alex Boone OT OSU

Miami (via SD)

Keenan Burton WR UK

Chris Ellis DE VT

Matt Ryan QB BC

Minnesota

Brian Johnston DE GW

Quentin Groves DE Auburn

NYGiants

Steve Slaton RB WVU

Jake Ikegwuonu CB UW

NYJets

Darren McFadden RB UA

Sam Baker OT USC

New England

Phillip Wheeler LB Georgia Tech

Chris Long DE UVA

New Orleans

Jon Heffney S UT

Frank Okam DT UTexas

Oakland

Sedric Ellis DT USC

Jonathan Stewart RB UO

Philadelphia

Vernon Gholston DE OSU

DeJuan Tribble CB BC

Pittsburgh

Aqib Talib DB KU

Marcus Harrison DT UA

San Diego

Antoine Cason CB UA

San Fransisco

Desean Jackson WR Cal

Jeff Otah OT Pitt

Seattle

Duke Robinson OG OU

James Laurinaitis LB OSU

St. Louis

Gosder Cherilus OT BC

Glenn Dorsey DT LSU

Tampa Bay

Brian Brohm QB Louisville

Ken Iwebema DE Iowa

Tennessee

Limas Sweed WR Texas

Darrell Robertson DE GTech

Washington

Mario Manningham WR UM

Marcus Griffin S UTexas

 
1.I didn't realize that I had Minny taking two DEs. That isn't likely to happen, but I think they would take Groves in Round 1.

2. EBF >> You realize that ESPN/ScoutsInc. has Stewart at 29, which is super-duper awesome until you realize they don't even have Mendenhall in the top-32...?

3. I think I have all current trades incorporated.

 
As a Bills fan I would be so pissed if the Bills just miss out on WR's like D.Jackson and M.Kelly nad then settle for a guy like Earl Bennett. It will remind me of just this year when the Bills settled for Lynch instead of trading up for ADP. I haven't heard much about Bennett. Is there anything you can tell me about him?
As of right now Kelly is probably my favorite WR in the draft. I think his size and athletic ability will probably get him drafted in the first round and I think he'd be a good fit for a number of teams. Buffalo would be a great spot for him since he offers a nice contrast with Evans. Buffalo has their franchise QB and RB, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to beef up the passing attack.
Agree. I like Kelly a lot. If the Titans have to take a WR in the 1st round, I hope it's Sweed, Kelly, or Manningham in that order. I think Manningham misses a lot of easy catches but also makes some crazy big plays, a la Donte Stallworth, which they would benefit from.
 
I like the mendenhall to AZ pick. He caught a lot of passes at ILL and would be a good fit there to take over for Edge.

Slaton to NYG would make me sad in both leagues I am in!!!!!

I also like the SD pick. A real CB to play opposite Cromartie would be nice if they dont resign florence. Jammer is not a good corner. They could also use a MLB. Their two guys that played in the middle did a nice job but it wasnt near Edwards before he left. A bigtime MLB between Merriman and Phillips would secure the defense nicely.

 
I am not real big on the Bengals taking a S in the first round. Odds are that they will re-sign Madieu Williams and still have Dexter Jackson signed through 2010. Not to mention they drafted 2 S last year that they really like, White and Ndukwe. This pick MUST be a can't miss DL or LB. Their pass defense is so bad, not because of their secondary, because they get absolutely no pass rush.
I don't think that they are going to be able to afford Madieu... but I still don't see them drafting a safety. It has to be at LB or on the Dline.
 
2. EBF >> You realize that ESPN/ScoutsInc. has Stewart at 29, which is super-duper awesome until you realize they don't even have Mendenhall in the top-32...?
My point with those links is that most of my favorite draft resources have Stewart in the first round. ESPN and scout.com are probably the two most well-connected draft sites out there. Scott Wright usually has a pretty good read on things and NFLDraftscout usually has decent rankings. When all four of those sites agree that Stewart is a first round RB, I tend to agree as well. This is especially since my personal opinion already had me leaning that way before those sites confirmed my suspicions.We've had some good backs come through the Pac-10 in recent years. Steven Jackson, LenDale White, and DeShaun Foster were all early draft picks. Stewart is in the same talent ballpark without any of the question marks that bumped Foster and White down into the 2nd round. I'll be very surprised if he isn't a first round pick. As for Mendenhall/ESPN, all I can say is that no one resource is gospel and even the best sites are playing catch-up with the pro scouts. Mendenhall is 225 pounds with mid 4.4 type speed coming off a monster year in which he lead his team to a BCS bowl. Guys like that don't slip to the 2nd round. I'd compare his ascent to that of Joseph Addai, Larry Johnson, and Chris Perry. No one had those guys ranked as first round RBs going into their final seasons, but they lifted their stock over the course of the entire evaluation process. Mendenhall is having the monster season of Perry coupled with the elite physical skillset of Addai.
 
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3. NYJets - Darren McFadden - RB - UA - "The Jets have other problems!" "Thomas Jones can still run!" "We need more O-line help!" "Let's draft a true franchise QB!" "McFadden's legs are skinny!" Did I miss any? McFadden's not slipping out of the top-3, especially when the #3 pick belongs to the largest media market in the sport and the New England Patriots are 2 picks away. Plus, the O-line talent in this draft between picks 40 and 100 is the deepest of any position with no fewer then 20 guys who are better then everyone on the Falcons O-line (I'm only slightly exaggerating). There will be plenty of time to get linemen later, and the Jets aren't paying top-3 money to a 2nd tackle when they're already paying for D'Brick.
I think it would be a mistake to pass on Chris Long. They have their franchise LT and can get interior linemen later in the draft. While McFadden should be a very good back in the NFL, I don't think he's near Peterson's impact level that would force a team with other needs to take him.
 
3. NYJets - Darren McFadden - RB - UA - "The Jets have other problems!" "Thomas Jones can still run!" "We need more O-line help!" "Let's draft a true franchise QB!" "McFadden's legs are skinny!" Did I miss any? McFadden's not slipping out of the top-3, especially when the #3 pick belongs to the largest media market in the sport and the New England Patriots are 2 picks away. Plus, the O-line talent in this draft between picks 40 and 100 is the deepest of any position with no fewer then 20 guys who are better then everyone on the Falcons O-line (I'm only slightly exaggerating). There will be plenty of time to get linemen later, and the Jets aren't paying top-3 money to a 2nd tackle when they're already paying for D'Brick.
I think it would be a mistake to pass on Chris Long. They have their franchise LT and can get interior linemen later in the draft. While McFadden should be a very good back in the NFL, I don't think he's near Peterson's impact level that would force a team with other needs to take him.
Totally agree. AP is making the impact he is because he has a line in place ahead of him. Put him or McFadden behind the putrid run blocking that the Jets employ and the results wouldn't be nearly as flashy.It would be like putting spinners on a mini-van. There are more important parts to put in place before the bling.
 
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3. NYJets - Darren McFadden - RB - UA - "The Jets have other problems!" "Thomas Jones can still run!" "We need more O-line help!" "Let's draft a true franchise QB!" "McFadden's legs are skinny!" Did I miss any? McFadden's not slipping out of the top-3, especially when the #3 pick belongs to the largest media market in the sport and the New England Patriots are 2 picks away. Plus, the O-line talent in this draft between picks 40 and 100 is the deepest of any position with no fewer then 20 guys who are better then everyone on the Falcons O-line (I'm only slightly exaggerating). There will be plenty of time to get linemen later, and the Jets aren't paying top-3 money to a 2nd tackle when they're already paying for D'Brick.
I think it would be a mistake to pass on Chris Long. They have their franchise LT and can get interior linemen later in the draft. While McFadden should be a very good back in the NFL, I don't think he's near Peterson's impact level that would force a team with other needs to take him.
I know the Jets and Brian Schottenheimer were real high on Michael Turner... I wonder in the end what they feel the drop off from McFadden to Turner is Vs the draft pick and $$$$$$$ that go with such a high pick..... I don't think Turner will get a killer deal at this point so, I'd imagine McFadden will be a ton more expensive.....Long + Turner Vs McFadden?????
 
Nice, well thought-out mock, really love the commentary. A few comments though.

1. I really can't see the Bengals passing on a DL, especially the type of pass-rushing potential that both Gholston and Harvey possess.

2. Mendenhall is no lock for the second RB taken. From what I've been hearing, Stewart is actually rated slightly higher primarily due to his thicker frame and more versatility.

3. Except for the rare freak-specimens (ala P.Willis) LBs are pretty much a dime-a-dozen and the Bills are in dire need of adding playmakers on offense. A WR like Kelly, Sweed, or Hardy, if he declares, would probably be given stronger consideration over a LB.

4. Houston simply cannot afford to tie up another large contract in the D-Line, which is already a strong part of their team. Depth for this unit can be added later in the draft. This team MUST address either backfield, offense or defense, with their 1st Rd pick. And J.Stewart would be an ideal fit for their system which stresses versatility from their RB. If they choose to go DB, either Jenkins CB (Mike or Malcolm) would be their choice. But I simply can't see how they can justify another DL here salary-cap wise.

Good stuff though, and I look forward to my yearly exercise of the mock.......I'm waiting for all of the underclassmen to delcare

 
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Request: Could you look a little deeper into your crystal ball and tell me who the next RB off the board will be, and his destination. TIA

 
3. I think I have all current trades incorporated.
http://www.gbnreport.com/trades.htmAlthough, Houston would gladly take a player and a healthy Matt Schaub.
Atlanta has a #3 from Houston (QB Matt Schaub)
2nd round

Atlanta has a #3 from Houston (QB Matt Schaub)

Miami has a #2 from San Diego (WR Chris Chambers)
Colin, I have been around long enough for you to trust me.
 
You really think Baker is falling out of round 1?Also, since I always address the Steelers, I wouldn't be shocked to see a CB in round 1, but I would be flabbergasted if they didn't then follow that up with OL help. Their offense goes as the line goes and with Starks and Faneca both free agents, Marvel Smith's health in question and Willie Colon's horribly erratic play, I expect the Steelers to go O-line heavy in this draft.ETA : I also might cry if Ray Rice goes to Cleveland. Seriously.
:goodposting: The Steelers o-line lousy and losing Faneca isn't going to improve things...
 
Quick thoughts:

CAR -- does their OL need help that badly, as opposed to LB (Dan Morgan finished each of the past two seasons on IR)? You do have Dan Connor available in the neighborhood (see BUF below). I would think their running game will get an automatic boost with Delhomme coming back to keep defenses honest. If Fox has any say whatsoever (which may not be the case), drafting a QB for the future doesn't seem as immediate a need as immediate LB help. Seems to be a perfect situation for "coach needs to win now" overlapping with "this really is the most glaring need".

BUF -- LB Posluszny (injured) was drafted #34 last year. Do they really need another LB there over a corner or WR (as mentioned)?

PITT -- as mentioned, OG should be a primary focus.

MINN -- as mentioned, DE may not be as obvious a need as secondary or WR.

HOU -- why would Houston draft a TE in the 2nd with Owen Daniel having a good season?

GB -- at 6-8 / 312, is King Dunlap the type of OL that GB would go after with their zone blocking scheme?

 
Jonathan Stewart WILL go in the first round. Especially when he puts up sick numbers at the combine and runs in the 4.3s. The kid is huge and has sick speed. He was the Washington State 100m dash champion in high school.

Seattle better take him if they have a chance (they wont unless they trade up). Laurinitis might be BPA but linebacker is the least thing Seattle needs. They have 2 pro bowl starters and LeRoy Hill who is also very good.

 
3. NYJets - Darren McFadden - RB - UA - "The Jets have other problems!" "Thomas Jones can still run!" "We need more O-line help!" "Let's draft a true franchise QB!" "McFadden's legs are skinny!" Did I miss any? McFadden's not slipping out of the top-3, especially when the #3 pick belongs to the largest media market in the sport and the New England Patriots are 2 picks away. Plus, the O-line talent in this draft between picks 40 and 100 is the deepest of any position with no fewer then 20 guys who are better then everyone on the Falcons O-line (I'm only slightly exaggerating). There will be plenty of time to get linemen later, and the Jets aren't paying top-3 money to a 2nd tackle when they're already paying for D'Brick.
I think it would be a mistake to pass on Chris Long. They have their franchise LT and can get interior linemen later in the draft. While McFadden should be a very good back in the NFL, I don't think he's near Peterson's impact level that would force a team with other needs to take him.
I know the Jets and Brian Schottenheimer were real high on Michael Turner... I wonder in the end what they feel the drop off from McFadden to Turner is Vs the draft pick and $$$$$$$ that go with such a high pick..... I don't think Turner will get a killer deal at this point so, I'd imagine McFadden will be a ton more expensive.....Long + Turner Vs McFadden?????
I like it.
 

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