HERD's NFL Mock - Candy Canes and Santa edition (2 Viewers)

[valhallan]

16. New Orleans - Frank Okam - DT - UTexas - I realize that I have Okam higher then most, but he is every bit as agile as Dorsey and has better size. Think: Albert Haynesworth or John Henderson. He's a big lane clogger and gets his rangey arms in the way of LOTS of passes. Some will say he went too early; I think 16 is actually a "slip."

They'll grab a DT before LB/S/CB? I don't think so. Hollis "House" Thomas is playing well. Young has been injured some this year but the back-up, Lake, has been doing good work in his stead.

I'd be so annoyed if they passed on Laurinaitis.. he'd be just another in the long line of LBs they should have drafted (Nap. Harris, Suggs, D.Johnson, Hawk, Posluszny).

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Here's an interesting bit of trivia. Since Belichick became head coach of the Patriots in 2000, what position has he drafted for the most with his first 4 picks?

mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("

Its a TIE.

7 Offensive linemen.

7 Defensive linemen.

He's also selected 4 tight ends in the first 4 picks as well, which help control the line.

You win by controlling the line of scrimmage.

Oddly enough, he's only selected 1 linebacker within his first 4 picks. Justin Rogers last year. He's never picked a LB higher than round 5.

*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();

Okay. So does that say that the trend will continue this next year? Or does it mean they've drafted enough depth at those spots that they can focus on other areas?I vote the latter.

 

[Anarchy99]

Here's an interesting bit of trivia. Since Belichick became head coach of the Patriots in 2000, what position has he drafted for the most with his first 4 picks?

mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("

Its a TIE.

7 Offensive linemen.

7 Defensive linemen.

He's also selected 4 tight ends in the first 4 picks as well, which help control the line.

You win by controlling the line of scrimmage.

Oddly enough, he's only selected 1 linebacker within his first 4 picks. Justin Rogers last year. He's never picked a LB higher than round 5.

*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();

Okay. So does that say that the trend will continue this next year? Or does it mean they've drafted enough depth at those spots that they can focus on other areas?I vote the latter.

From all that I have seen/read/heard, NE is likely to stick to their strategy of taking who they feel is the best DL or OL available. I have said this about 87,000 times that investing earlier picks on LB IS NOT their M.O., so I doubt that changes this year. They have been very open in discussing this, as they strongly prefer ESTABLISHED linebackers. They also have said no matter who they would draft to be a rookie LB would require a lot of time to develop and they have no intention of paying someone a ton of money to basically have on the job training in the complex NE defensive scheme.NE also will need to get CB help if (more like WHEN) Asante Samuel bolts next year. (For those that are not aware, NE cannot franchise him again this year as that was part of the agreement for him to sign his tender offer this year.)

DL seems to be the most likely area to look at if they keep their first round pick as Seymour, Wilfork, and Green collectively are only signed through 2009.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Here's an interesting bit of trivia. Since Belichick became head coach of the Patriots in 2000, what position has he drafted for the most with his first 4 picks?

mytagid = Math.floor( Math.random() * 100 );document.write("

Its a TIE.

7 Offensive linemen.

7 Defensive linemen.

He's also selected 4 tight ends in the first 4 picks as well, which help control the line.

You win by controlling the line of scrimmage.

Oddly enough, he's only selected 1 linebacker within his first 4 picks. Justin Rogers last year. He's never picked a LB higher than round 5.

*** SPOILER ALERT! Click this link to display the potential spoiler text in this box. ***");document.close();

Okay. So does that say that the trend will continue this next year? Or does it mean they've drafted enough depth at those spots that they can focus on other areas?I vote the latter.

From all that I have seen/read/heard, NE is likely to stick to their strategy of taking who they feel is the best DL or OL available. I have said this about 87,000 times that investing earlier picks on LB IS NOT their M.O., so I doubt that changes this year. They have been very open in discussing this, as they strongly prefer ESTABLISHED linebackers. They also have said no matter who they would draft to be a rookie LB would require a lot of time to develop and they have no intention of paying someone a ton of money to basically have on the job training in the complex NE defensive scheme.NE also will need to get CB help if (more like WHEN) Asante Samuel bolts next year. (For those that are not aware, NE cannot franchise him again this year as that was part of the agreement for him to sign his tender offer this year.)

DL seems to be the most likely area to look at if they keep their first round pick as Seymour, Wilfork, and Green collectively are only signed through 2009.

Well that last bit IS interesting. I agree that chances are almost zero that the pick is a linebacker. Everything else except QB is in play, though.

Like I said before, if I'm the rest of the league I make the Pats make that top 5 pick just so that it eats up some of their cap space.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Chris Long to the Pats would be unfair. Cedric Ellis or Frank Okam would be slightly behind that. I could see a guy like Calais Campbell doing well there, although I don't think he's going that high.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Calais Campbell has the earmarks of being this years Quentin Moses.

Highly touted sophmore can't repeat in the junior year, drafted third round and soon out of football.

 

[saintfool]

16. New Orleans - Frank Okam - DT - UTexas - I realize that I have Okam higher then most, but he is every bit as agile as Dorsey and has better size. Think: Albert Haynesworth or John Henderson. He's a big lane clogger and gets his rangey arms in the way of LOTS of passes. Some will say he went too early; I think 16 is actually a "slip."

They'll grab a DT before LB/S/CB? I don't think so. Hollis "House" Thomas is playing well. Young has been injured some this year but the back-up, Lake, has been doing good work in his stead.

I'd be so annoyed if they passed on Laurinaitis.. he'd be just another in the long line of LBs they should have drafted (Nap. Harris, Suggs, D.Johnson, Hawk, Posluszny).

Saints fans have clamored for a starter quality LB via the draft since the Dome Patrol days. I do think a case can be made for CB as J David has been a major disappointment this this season and we don't know if Usama Young is ready yet. The same can be said for S, as Bullocks has regressed this year. Although Kaesviharn has done well since he was inserted in the starting line-up.

 

[Getinthemix]

This would be the 5th consecutive 1st round DL for the Texans.

Babin

Travis Johnson

Mario

Amobi

As a Texans fan, I still like it though.

 

[JaxBill]

Speaking of DL, don't be surprised if the Jags take one early. Marcus Stroud still doesn't look like the same player after last year's microfracture surgey. John Henderson has been banged up. Reggie hayward's achilles is making him look like a complete bust. I think this is BobbyMcCray's last season in JAX (UFA?) and he has had a disappointing season.

 

[Donny Loved Bowling]

Eagles' need at TE is more glaring than at DE... Cole and Thomas are a pretty good pass-rushing combo, with Abiamiri on the way. Plus they will have some $$ to spend on a veteran end after (hopefully) dumping Kearse and Howard. I definitely believe that CB will be an early target, but we need a also need a TE to make this offense work.

Martin Rucker!

 

[Colin Dowling]

Eagles' need at TE is more glaring than at DE... Cole and Thomas are a pretty good pass-rushing combo, with Abiamiri on the way. Plus they will have some $$ to spend on a veteran end after (hopefully) dumping Kearse and Howard. I definitely believe that CB will be an early target, but we need a also need a TE to make this offense work.Martin Rucker!

Rucker is a 3rd round guy, IMO.

 

[B. Nugget]

Eagles' need at TE is more glaring than at DE... Cole and Thomas are a pretty good pass-rushing combo, with Abiamiri on the way. Plus they will have some $$ to spend on a veteran end after (hopefully) dumping Kearse and Howard. I definitely believe that CB will be an early target, but we need a also need a TE to make this offense work.Martin Rucker!

Rucker is a 3rd round guy, IMO.

I've watched Rucker for 4 years at Mizzou, I think he'll go in the 2nd round, but if he sticks around into the 4th, I'd bet he will be a Chief.

 

[RC94]

Ahhh, it's that time of the year again.

Love when the fantasy season winds down and the dynasty and draft threads starts to become more prominent

Maybe we should just stop playing the games and merely project the draft...

Thank you for the good work on the Mock, Colin

Why can't we do both?

 

[Gatorman]

Doesn't the fins getting parcells change your thinking?

 

[stevegamer]

Eagles' need at TE is more glaring than at DE... Cole and Thomas are a pretty good pass-rushing combo, with Abiamiri on the way. Plus they will have some $$ to spend on a veteran end after (hopefully) dumping Kearse and Howard. I definitely believe that CB will be an early target, but we need a also need a TE to make this offense work.Martin Rucker!

I really think that they like Celek enough that he's the starter next year.I think they go DB, likely a safety - Griffin?

 

[Festivus]

This would be the 5th consecutive 1st round DL for the Texans.BabinTravis JohnsonMarioAmobiAs a Texans fan, I still like it though.

I'd think that the best available DB or OL would be the way for HOU to go.

 

[Idiot Boxer]

24. Pittsburgh - Aqib Talib - DB - KU - File this pick under, "We're not winning in the AFC until we figure out how to slow down the passing games of Indy, New England and <gulp> Cleveland." Talib can play a couple positions in the D backfield.

23. Pittsburgh - Marcus Harrison - DT - UA

STOP. Just STOP.I will freaking kill somebody if Pittsburgh ignores the O line in the first two picks next year. They've ignored that postion for far too long in the draft and it is really starting to show. Raise your hand if you'd rather have Joe Staley or Lawrence Timmons Steeler fans.

They're losing Faneca. They're already weak on the O-line. I don't care if they can't slow Indy, New England and <gulp> Cleveland if they can't protect Ben and open holes...

They had better f'n pick a O lineman or I will explode.

 

[Rovers]

Calais Campbell has the earmarks of being this years Quentin Moses.Highly touted sophmore can't repeat in the junior year, drafted third round and soon out of football.

Ah.... Moses is in the NFL....

 

[Buckna]

This would be the 5th consecutive 1st round DL for the Texans.BabinTravis JohnsonMarioAmobiAs a Texans fan, I still like it though.

I'd think that the best available DB or OL would be the way for HOU to go.

Anthony Weaver is locked up for at least 2 more years to play the other DE spot as well. While he's no pro-bowler, he's at least an NFL quality starter. I wouldn't argue with a pick on the D'line along the basis of strengthening a good line into a possible top line, but there are indeed much bigger holes on the team that would seem to take priority.Also, those 1st two picks were wastes. Babin was traded for peanuts, and Travis Johnson barely was able to hold onto his job this past pre-season.

 

[cstu]

Chris Long to the Pats would be unfair. Cedric Ellis or Frank Okam would be slightly behind that. I could see a guy like Calais Campbell doing well there, although I don't think he's going that high.

I never thought I'd be rooting for the 49ers, but I am.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Calais Campbell has the earmarks of being this years Quentin Moses.Highly touted sophmore can't repeat in the junior year, drafted third round and soon out of football.

Ah.... Moses is in the NFL....

I said "soon". He's been cut by two teams already.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Chris Long to the Pats would be unfair. Cedric Ellis or Frank Okam would be slightly behind that. I could see a guy like Calais Campbell doing well there, although I don't think he's going that high.

I never thought I'd be rooting for the 49ers, but I am.

I want the Pats to draft as high as possible so they have to spend some money for a change.

 

[BelichicksRevenge]

I just don't think Matt Ryan is a number 1 pick. I don't think he is close to having the arm of a Carson Palmer. He reminds me more of another BC quarterback, Matt Hasselback. I think he has a chance to be a good Quarterback but he could be a major bust too. I think there are other players out there who are just more of a Can't miss pick.

 

[Colin Dowling]

I just don't think Matt Ryan is a number 1 pick. I don't think he is close to having the arm of a Carson Palmer. He reminds me more of another BC quarterback, Matt Hasselback. I think he has a chance to be a good Quarterback but he could be a major bust too. I think there are other players out there who are just more of a Can't miss pick.

Such as ?

 

[BelichicksRevenge]

Chris Long to the Pats would be unfair. Cedric Ellis or Frank Okam would be slightly behind that. I could see a guy like Calais Campbell doing well there, although I don't think he's going that high.

Is Chris Long quick enough to play out side linebacker in a 3-4 ala Mike Vrable. If so they could move Vrabel inside. Other wise they could switch to a 4-3 defense with Vrable inside, Thomas and Colvin outside. Gotta beleive Seau and Bruschi are gone after this year and even if they are back they will see less playing time.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Chris Long to the Pats would be unfair. Cedric Ellis or Frank Okam would be slightly behind that. I could see a guy like Calais Campbell doing well there, although I don't think he's going that high.

Is Chris Long quick enough to play out side linebacker in a 3-4 ala Mike Vrable. If so they could move Vrabel inside. Other wise they could switch to a 4-3 defense with Vrable inside, Thomas and Colvin outside. Gotta beleive Seau and Bruschi are gone after this year and even if they are back they will see less playing time.

That's why I think Vernon Gholston could be a dark horse selection for the Patriots. He would make a great OLB in the 3-4, IMO.

 

[BelichicksRevenge]

I just don't think Matt Ryan is a number 1 pick. I don't think he is close to having the arm of a Carson Palmer. He reminds me more of another BC quarterback, Matt Hasselback. I think he has a chance to be a good Quarterback but he could be a major bust too. I think there are other players out there who are just more of a Can't miss pick.

Such as ?

Jake Long or Glen Dorsey. I think Ryan is a first round pick and the best Qb in the draft but I don't think he is a sure thing. I also think Miami may get someone to bite on a trade for a chance to get McFadden.

 

[Reaper]

Chris Long to the Pats would be unfair. Cedric Ellis or Frank Okam would be slightly behind that. I could see a guy like Calais Campbell doing well there, although I don't think he's going that high.

Is Chris Long quick enough to play out side linebacker in a 3-4 ala Mike Vrable. If so they could move Vrabel inside. Other wise they could switch to a 4-3 defense with Vrable inside, Thomas and Colvin outside. Gotta beleive Seau and Bruschi are gone after this year and even if they are back they will see less playing time.

That's why I think Vernon Gholston could be a dark horse selection for the Patriots. He would make a great OLB in the 3-4, IMO.

He's all the rage on the Jet boards for their 3-4 OLB spot......

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Chris Long to the Pats would be unfair. Cedric Ellis or Frank Okam would be slightly behind that. I could see a guy like Calais Campbell doing well there, although I don't think he's going that high.

Is Chris Long quick enough to play out side linebacker in a 3-4 ala Mike Vrable. If so they could move Vrabel inside. Other wise they could switch to a 4-3 defense with Vrable inside, Thomas and Colvin outside. Gotta beleive Seau and Bruschi are gone after this year and even if they are back they will see less playing time.

That's why I think Vernon Gholston could be a dark horse selection for the Patriots. He would make a great OLB in the 3-4, IMO.

He's all the rage on the Jet boards for their 3-4 OLB spot......

And what do you think of that? It was you that was right on the money with them taking a corner last year, wasn't it?

 

[Reaper]

Chris Long to the Pats would be unfair. Cedric Ellis or Frank Okam would be slightly behind that. I could see a guy like Calais Campbell doing well there, although I don't think he's going that high.

Is Chris Long quick enough to play out side linebacker in a 3-4 ala Mike Vrable. If so they could move Vrabel inside. Other wise they could switch to a 4-3 defense with Vrable inside, Thomas and Colvin outside. Gotta beleive Seau and Bruschi are gone after this year and even if they are back they will see less playing time.

That's why I think Vernon Gholston could be a dark horse selection for the Patriots. He would make a great OLB in the 3-4, IMO.

He's all the rage on the Jet boards for their 3-4 OLB spot......

And what do you think of that? It was you that was right on the money with them taking a corner last year, wasn't it?

No.... I was hell bent on getting Offensive Linemen and wanted maybe 2 of the OL prospects from Ugoh, Grubbs or Blalock... Before all the trades. I wanted OL even before Kendall started his crap. When they traded up for Revis my initial reaction wasn't good but, it settled in and between him and Harris I don't think you can fault that draft 1 bit, those should be two cornerstones of the Defense.I'm back to being hellbent on OL....... I'd love an impact OLB as well, but at this point I'd hope they can trade down (Like everyone does!!) And grab Gholsten, OL help AND maybe there's a 3-4 NT in here somewhere..... Frank Okam - Where does he land?Mangini's career could depend on getting this 3-4 NT.... If I'm him I sell my soul.. He's gotta spend a lot of time with Okam this offseason.

 

[Clayton Gray]

I'm told that Felix Jones is leaning to leaving.

 

[Colin Dowling]

I'm told that Felix Jones is leaning to leaving.

That would be big news.

 

[cstu]

Chris Long to the Pats would be unfair. Cedric Ellis or Frank Okam would be slightly behind that. I could see a guy like Calais Campbell doing well there, although I don't think he's going that high.

Is Chris Long quick enough to play out side linebacker in a 3-4 ala Mike Vrable. If so they could move Vrabel inside. Other wise they could switch to a 4-3 defense with Vrable inside, Thomas and Colvin outside. Gotta beleive Seau and Bruschi are gone after this year and even if they are back they will see less playing time.

That's why I think Vernon Gholston could be a dark horse selection for the Patriots. He would make a great OLB in the 3-4, IMO.

Do you think Long would be able to play 3-4 DE if he bulked up to 290 or is he just not suited to the position? It's normally not a pass rushing position, which seems to be his strength.

 

[BelichicksRevenge]

Chris Long to the Pats would be unfair. Cedric Ellis or Frank Okam would be slightly behind that. I could see a guy like Calais Campbell doing well there, although I don't think he's going that high.

Is Chris Long quick enough to play out side linebacker in a 3-4 ala Mike Vrable. If so they could move Vrabel inside. Other wise they could switch to a 4-3 defense with Vrable inside, Thomas and Colvin outside. Gotta beleive Seau and Bruschi are gone after this year and even if they are back they will see less playing time.

That's why I think Vernon Gholston could be a dark horse selection for the Patriots. He would make a great OLB in the 3-4, IMO.

Do you think Long would be able to play 3-4 DE if he bulked up to 290 or is he just not suited to the position? It's normally not a pass rushing position, which seems to be his strength.

He's projected to be a prototypical 3-4 defensive end.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Do you think Long would be able to play 3-4 DE if he bulked up to 290 or is he just not suited to the position? It's normally not a pass rushing position, which seems to be his strength.

I've thought about that quite a bit, actually. I hear he'd be a "perfect fit" for the 3-4, after all that's what he plays in college, right?But like you point out, I'm not sure he's big enough to play it in the NFL. If he bulks up, does he lose some of the quickness that makes him so effective?I really don't know.

 

[BelichicksRevenge]

Do you think Long would be able to play 3-4 DE if he bulked up to 290 or is he just not suited to the position? It's normally not a pass rushing position, which seems to be his strength.

I've thought about that quite a bit, actually. I hear he'd be a "perfect fit" for the 3-4, after all that's what he plays in college, right?But like you point out, I'm not sure he's big enough to play it in the NFL. If he bulks up, does he lose some of the quickness that makes him so effective?I really don't know.

I thought I read he was like 6'4" 285. I don't think he has to bulk up significantly.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Do you think Long would be able to play 3-4 DE if he bulked up to 290 or is he just not suited to the position? It's normally not a pass rushing position, which seems to be his strength.

I've thought about that quite a bit, actually. I hear he'd be a "perfect fit" for the 3-4, after all that's what he plays in college, right?But like you point out, I'm not sure he's big enough to play it in the NFL. If he bulks up, does he lose some of the quickness that makes him so effective?I really don't know.

I thought I read he was like 6'4" 285. I don't think he has to bulk up significantly.

I'd read he was smaller than that. Hard to know for sure. Those numbers never seem real accurate!Aren't 3-4 DE's usually 300+? Again, if he adds weight, does he lose quickness?

 

[SSOG]

I think there are other players out there who are just more of a Can't miss pick.

How big of a can't miss pick? Are we talking Mike Williams (the tackle, not the WR) level of can't miss, or would you go so far as to say that someone in this draft is as much of a "can't miss" as Robert Gallery?

 

[Colin Dowling]

I don't think Jake Long will grade out as well as Gallery of Ferguson.

 

[BelichicksRevenge]

I think there are other players out there who are just more of a Can't miss pick.

How big of a can't miss pick? Are we talking Mike Williams (the tackle, not the WR) level of can't miss, or would you go so far as to say that someone in this draft is as much of a "can't miss" as Robert Gallery?

Typically, i think qb's are more hit and miss than other players and unless they have the big rocket arm and size I would'nt pick them at number 1. Occasionally you get the offensive linemen or defensive linemen who are busts but on the whole there is a higher percentage of QB busts than any other position. Ryan does not wow me like Palmer did or like Russell did last season. I would take Brady quinn over him in a second.

 

[SSOG]

I think there are other players out there who are just more of a Can't miss pick.

How big of a can't miss pick? Are we talking Mike Williams (the tackle, not the WR) level of can't miss, or would you go so far as to say that someone in this draft is as much of a "can't miss" as Robert Gallery?

Typically, i think qb's are more hit and miss than other players and unless they have the big rocket arm and size I would'nt pick them at number 1. Occasionally you get the offensive linemen or defensive linemen who are busts but on the whole there is a higher percentage of QB busts than any other position. Ryan does not wow me like Palmer did or like Russell did last season. I would take Brady quinn over him in a second.

QBs might have a higher bust rate, but they have a higher upside, too. I mean, punter probably has the lowest bust rate in the league. Would you ever draft a punter #1?Given the salaries that go to the top picks, you pretty much can't take an RB, safety, LB, guard, center, or TE (because that player will instantly become the highest paid player at his position, and will have to play like the best at his position in the entire NFL in order to justify the cap space). That means you're pretty much locked into a left tackle, QB, DE, DT, CB, or possibly a WR (assuming it's an AMAZING WR). Maybe with the way the league is going, a really top-flight safety might be worth the pick, too. Iirc, WR actually has a higher bust-rate than QB, and Tackles are often cited as the most predicable position, but there's been a HUGE trend of busts at the top of the tackle classes recently. If I had a top-5 pick, I wouldn't want to use it, but if I had to use it, then a stud QB, DE, or CB, or a SUPERstud DT, WR, or OT would be the way to go. QB is definitely the smartest way to go with the #1 overall because, despite the bust rate, QBs will have the easiest time justifying their contracts.

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

Chris Long to the Pats would be unfair. Cedric Ellis or Frank Okam would be slightly behind that. I could see a guy like Calais Campbell doing well there, although I don't think he's going that high.

Is Chris Long quick enough to play out side linebacker in a 3-4 ala Mike Vrable. If so they could move Vrabel inside. Other wise they could switch to a 4-3 defense with Vrable inside, Thomas and Colvin outside. Gotta beleive Seau and Bruschi are gone after this year and even if they are back they will see less playing time.

That's why I think Vernon Gholston could be a dark horse selection for the Patriots. He would make a great OLB in the 3-4, IMO.

He's all the rage on the Jet boards for their 3-4 OLB spot......

Agreed, but there is no 34 OLB in this draft worth a top-5 pick. Quentin Groves has been making huge strides since coming back from his injury and if can show that he is 100% healed, the should be the pick instead of Gholston. Groves has a much quicker burst than Gholston and should be the fastest 34 OLB in this year's draft- making him the perfect complement to David Harris in the interior. He has the quickest first step I've seen in a while and also has shown he can be much better in coverage than Gholston, who is very stiff in his hips and lacks the timed speed to catch . In this sense he is the prototypical 34 OLB while Gholston would be more efficient in a dual look system like Arizona or New England because he has the size to stand up or put his hand on the ground. Groves by no means is a consistent 34 end because of his (lack of) size. In that sense, his upside is limited but the Jets IIRC have a pressing need at the OLB spot and would need someone there full time. IMO, he is a better prospect (if healthy) than Manny Lawson. The injury and consequently his lackluster season will make Groves slip but he is going to be an absolute terror if he comes to the combine @ full strength. If the Jets can pick up a legtimate 34 NT, and keep vilma, they can return to form just as easily as they lost it. The best case scenario would be for the Jets (currently slotted @4) to lose the remainder of their games and hope to be in position for McFadden or Dorsey- whoever falls. They can leverage that to a team like Dallas, who may be interested in McFadden for their two first rounders and a future first, or keep McFadden for themselves. If they take the trade, grabbing Groves/Gholston @23 and a NT @31 (Okam, Red Bryant) would net significant dividends.

I know there is a ton to like about Gholston size and physicality but Groves is the better fit. Speed is the name of the game with

. Note that both links are of him as a 4-3 DE (before he was moved to OLB).

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

Mangini's career could depend on getting this 3-4 NT.... If I'm him I sell my soul.. He's gotta spend a lot of time with Okam this offseason.

Theres talk that a Shaun Rogers-Vilma swap (plus considerations for the Jets) is in the works. Rogers would be a beastly addition to the team.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Groves is the most underrated D player in the draft. Okam isn't far behind.

 

[stevegamer]

I think there are other players out there who are just more of a Can't miss pick.

How big of a can't miss pick? Are we talking Mike Williams (the tackle, not the WR) level of can't miss, or would you go so far as to say that someone in this draft is as much of a "can't miss" as Robert Gallery?

Typically, i think qb's are more hit and miss than other players and unless they have the big rocket arm and size I would'nt pick them at number 1. Occasionally you get the offensive linemen or defensive linemen who are busts but on the whole there is a higher percentage of QB busts than any other position. Ryan does not wow me like Palmer did or like Russell did last season. I would take Brady quinn over him in a second.

QBs might have a higher bust rate, but they have a higher upside, too. I mean, punter probably has the lowest bust rate in the league. Would you ever draft a punter #1?Given the salaries that go to the top picks, you pretty much can't take an RB, safety, LB, guard, center, or TE (because that player will instantly become the highest paid player at his position, and will have to play like the best at his position in the entire NFL in order to justify the cap space). That means you're pretty much locked into a left tackle, QB, DE, DT, CB, or possibly a WR (assuming it's an AMAZING WR). Maybe with the way the league is going, a really top-flight safety might be worth the pick, too. Iirc, WR actually has a higher bust-rate than QB, and Tackles are often cited as the most predicable position, but there's been a HUGE trend of busts at the top of the tackle classes recently. If I had a top-5 pick, I wouldn't want to use it, but if I had to use it, then a stud QB, DE, or CB, or a SUPERstud DT, WR, or OT would be the way to go. QB is definitely the smartest way to go with the #1 overall because, despite the bust rate, QBs will have the easiest time justifying their contracts.

I would specifically AVOID a QB. The problem with taking a QB very high is that it's very hard to work a QB into your lineup. If they aren't starting, they aren't contributing, becuase you normally play only 1 QB in a game. Picking a positon where a player can get on the field as one of a number of starters increases the liklihood of you getting utility out of the player quickly, and mitigates bust risk. If you get a DE who is a decent starter, but not a Pro Bowler, he still has value.

 

[sheerterror]

Chris Long to the Pats would be unfair. Cedric Ellis or Frank Okam would be slightly behind that. I could see a guy like Calais Campbell doing well there, although I don't think he's going that high.

Is Chris Long quick enough to play out side linebacker in a 3-4 ala Mike Vrable. If so they could move Vrabel inside. Other wise they could switch to a 4-3 defense with Vrable inside, Thomas and Colvin outside. Gotta beleive Seau and Bruschi are gone after this year and even if they are back they will see less playing time.

That's why I think Vernon Gholston could be a dark horse selection for the Patriots. He would make a great OLB in the 3-4, IMO.

He's all the rage on the Jet boards for their 3-4 OLB spot......

Agreed, but there is no 34 OLB in this draft worth a top-5 pick. Quentin Groves has been making huge strides since coming back from his injury and if can show that he is 100% healed, the should be the pick instead of Gholston. Groves has a much quicker burst than Gholston and should be the fastest 34 OLB in this year's draft- making him the perfect complement to David Harris in the interior. He has the quickest first step I've seen in a while and also has shown he can be much better in coverage than Gholston, who is very stiff in his hips and lacks the timed speed to catch . In this sense he is the prototypical 34 OLB while Gholston would be more efficient in a dual look system like Arizona or New England because he has the size to stand up or put his hand on the ground. Groves by no means is a consistent 34 end because of his (lack of) size. In that sense, his upside is limited but the Jets IIRC have a pressing need at the OLB spot and would need someone there full time. IMO, he is a better prospect (if healthy) than Manny Lawson. The injury and consequently his lackluster season will make Groves slip but he is going to be an absolute terror if he comes to the combine @ full strength. If the Jets can pick up a legtimate 34 NT, and keep vilma, they can return to form just as easily as they lost it. The best case scenario would be for the Jets (currently slotted @4) to lose the remainder of their games and hope to be in position for McFadden or Dorsey- whoever falls. They can leverage that to a team like Dallas, who may be interested in McFadden for their two first rounders and a future first, or keep McFadden for themselves. If they take the trade, grabbing Groves/Gholston @23 and a NT @31 (Okam, Red Bryant) would net significant dividends.

I know there is a ton to like about Gholston size and physicality but Groves is the better fit. Speed is the name of the game with

I posted this on the previous page, but I'm guessing it got overlooked or ignored:

"As a Jets fan, I'd rather see Chris Long than Darren McFadden. I think the best scenario would be for the Jets to trade out of the #3 (or wherever they end up) to a team like Dallas for their 2 second rounders plus an additional pick or two, and then move back up to draft Gholston. They still get a stud OLB to rush the passer and can pick up an additional first rounder in the process."

Either way, I think this would be a great move that would allow the Jets to fill multiple holes with essentially one pick.I like the idea of picking up 2 first rounders, using the first one to get a good pass rusher and the other pick for help on either line.

 

[yellowdog]

When should we expect an update?

 

[Weapon of Mass Instruction]

Colin -- Titans are not going to draft a WR in the first round unless someone just absolutely blows them out of the freakin water at the combine.

I'd say less than a 10% chance. Oh, they'll get WRs, but not via the draft.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Maybe today, depending on if I can find the time to add some comments. I have it mapped out pretty well. Since there are so many mocks now (which is a good thing since it's always fun to talk about ) I'm going to start adding more trades to mine. Nothing ridiculous, but there are almost always teams trading back in to round 1 and I expect this year to be no different.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Colin -- Titans are not going to draft a WR in the first round unless someone just absolutely blows them out of the freakin water at the combine.I'd say less than a 10% chance. Oh, they'll get WRs, but not via the draft.

Agreed. I have them taking Calais Campbell right now to go with KVB and AO on the end.