Is Joique Bell a legit #2 rb? (1 Viewer)

[Saboo]

I drafted Bell in three of my leagues (standard scoring) and I am starting to have second thoughts even after many "experts" like Evan Silva had Bell as a solid #2 and a breakout candidate.

Many pre draft reports had Bell being the lead back of a committee along with Reggie Bush. What I fear is that the Lions may mix a 3rd rb (Theo Riddick) into the mix + he may steal some of Bell's goal line touches.

Any Lions homers out there have an idea how this situation will shake out? Is Riddick a legit threat or is he simply pre season hype?

 

[rocketsauce]

I don't think you need to worry about Riddick, but I do think you'll have the usual ups and downs of a committee back. Hopefully he catches enough passes to keep the 'downs' to a minimum.

 

[montana_grizzly_bears]

Seems that Bush is going to be 1st and 2nd down back with Bell coming in on 3rd down. Last year they were both out at the same time also with Bush split wide and Bell in the backfield, though I don't know if that will happen as often this year.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Riddick is going to see the field, sometimes out of the backfield, sometimes lined up as one of the four WR. Detroit's backfield will resemble the Saints from last year (though all three are decent catching the ball).

I like them to be effective/productive IRL but I avoided all of them this year, though Theo as a late round flyer is a good move.

 

[ponchsox]

Is one of your team names "Joique'n off?"

 

[flapgreen]

 

[Phenomena]

He's my RB2 in 4 leagues, so I hope so!

He had 1200 yards 8 TDs and 53 catches in a committee role, and if anything the offense is going to be more efficient this year.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I'm on the record as being a big fan of both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell in PPR this year. Both backs topped 50 receptions last year, which is impressive... but the Lions are installing New Orleans' offense for 2014, and New Orleans produced two backs with 70 receptions each last year. Which is insane. Since 2006, two coaches have had a season where their RBs were targeted 180+ times. Andy Reid did it once (last year, with Charles and McCluster and a woeful WR/TE corps), and Sean Payton has done it... five times. That New Orleans offense is to PPR RBs what the Mike Shanahan / Alex Gibbs zone-blocking running game was to standard RBs.

As far as putting my money where my mouth is, I took Bush/Bell in the 3rd/4th just last night in a Draftmaster draft (28 rounds, best ball, no in-season transactions- basically just draft and see who did the best job at the end of the year).

 

[adrenaline]

I'm on the record as being a big fan of both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell in PPR this year. Both backs topped 50 receptions last year, which is impressive... but the Lions are installing New Orleans' offense for 2014, and New Orleans produced two backs with 70 receptions each last year. Which is insane. Since 2006, two coaches have had a season where their RBs were targeted 180+ times. Andy Reid did it once (last year, with Charles and McCluster and a woeful WR/TE corps), and Sean Payton has done it... five times. That New Orleans offense is to PPR RBs what the Mike Shanahan / Alex Gibbs zone-blocking running game was to standard RBs.

As far as putting my money where my mouth is, I took Bush/Bell in the 3rd/4th just last night in a Draftmaster draft (28 rounds, best ball, no in-season transactions- basically just draft and see who did the best job at the end of the year).

Wow, that's a lot to invest in the Lions' backfield. Especially with the additions of Tate & Ebron to a lesser extent.

 

[monk]

Only in PPR but .........................................

PPR is for little girls

 

[ponchsox]

Only in PPR but .........................................

PPR is for little girls

Yep, they can't hang in real men's leagues, non-ppr

 

[monk]

Only in PPR but .........................................

PPR is for little girls

Yep, they can't hang in real men's leagues, non-ppr

Sad but true

 

[Pots]

As far as putting my money where my mouth is, I took Bush/Bell in the 3rd/4th just last night in a Draftmaster draft (28 rounds, best ball, no in-season transactions- basically just draft and see who did the best job at the end of the year).

I don't really see this as putting money where your mouth is when it's Best Ball format. The problem with RBBC backs, and Bell in particular, is that you don't know how reliable they will be or when they will get theirs. A RB2 isn't someone who could get you 14 points one week and 4 the next, that's a 3rd tier TE imo. You need someone that is reliable to get you 10 points a game with a bit of upside, and I'm not sure if RBBC backs like Bell can do that if they're regulated to 3rd down and goal line carries only. Bell can't be considered anything more than a RB3 or flex play with upside until you see Bush go down with injury or Bell prove he has a bigger piece of the pie than most RBBC backs have.

 

[rockaction]

Riddick is going to see the field, sometimes out of the backfield, sometimes lined up as one of the four WR. Detroit's backfield will resemble the Saints from last year (though all three are decent catching the ball).

I like them to be effective/productive IRL but I avoided all of them this year, though Theo as a late round flyer is a good move.

I loved Bush last year and took him in the second because I thought he was a great fit. After watching Bell siphon off a bunch of touches last year, I also stayed away from both of them this year. Bell is a talented guy; I'm just not sure how the workload will divvy up.

 

[bucsbaby]

As far as putting my money where my mouth is, I took Bush/Bell in the 3rd/4th just last night in a Draftmaster draft (28 rounds, best ball, no in-season transactions- basically just draft and see who did the best job at the end of the year).

I don't really see this as putting money where your mouth is when it's Best Ball format. The problem with RBBC backs, and Bell in particular, is that you don't know how reliable they will be or when they will get theirs. A RB2 isn't someone who could get you 14 points one week and 4 the next, that's a 3rd tier TE imo. You need someone that is reliable to get you 10 points a game with a bit of upside, and I'm not sure if RBBC backs like Bell can do that if they're regulated to 3rd down and goal line carries only. Bell can't be considered anything more than a RB3 or flex play with upside until you see Bush go down with injury or Bell prove he has a bigger piece of the pie than most RBBC backs have.

Did you watch any NFL last year?

 

[Pots]

As far as putting my money where my mouth is, I took Bush/Bell in the 3rd/4th just last night in a Draftmaster draft (28 rounds, best ball, no in-season transactions- basically just draft and see who did the best job at the end of the year).

I don't really see this as putting money where your mouth is when it's Best Ball format. The problem with RBBC backs, and Bell in particular, is that you don't know how reliable they will be or when they will get theirs. A RB2 isn't someone who could get you 14 points one week and 4 the next, that's a 3rd tier TE imo. You need someone that is reliable to get you 10 points a game with a bit of upside, and I'm not sure if RBBC backs like Bell can do that if they're regulated to 3rd down and goal line carries only. Bell can't be considered anything more than a RB3 or flex play with upside until you see Bush go down with injury or Bell prove he has a bigger piece of the pie than most RBBC backs have.

Did you watch any NFL last year?

I did, I also watched when Bush was healthy and how much of the action he got and how he's looked in preseason as well. With the workload I expect Bush to have, I don't expect Bell to be a reliable RB2. It's more about opportunity and consistency than talent. I also think Bell could be a RB1 if Bush got hurt. Thus I consider him a high upside RB3/Flex.

 

[JamesTheScot]

As far as putting my money where my mouth is, I took Bush/Bell in the 3rd/4th just last night in a Draftmaster draft (28 rounds, best ball, no in-season transactions- basically just draft and see who did the best job at the end of the year).

I don't really see this as putting money where your mouth is when it's Best Ball format. The problem with RBBC backs, and Bell in particular, is that you don't know how reliable they will be or when they will get theirs. A RB2 isn't someone who could get you 14 points one week and 4 the next, that's a 3rd tier TE imo. You need someone that is reliable to get you 10 points a game with a bit of upside, and I'm not sure if RBBC backs like Bell can do that if they're regulated to 3rd down and goal line carries only. Bell can't be considered anything more than a RB3 or flex play with upside until you see Bush go down with injury or Bell prove he has a bigger piece of the pie than most RBBC backs have.

Concerns over how the touches will be distributed in a general sense is understandable. The mistake would be in assuming Bell is pigeonholed to a 3rd down role. Bell is a 3-down back. He's just sharing the backfield with an excellent athlete. His versatility is what ensures that he "could" produce against any opponent in any game situation.

 

[Saboo]

Why is everyone assuming that Bell is just going to be used as a 3rd down back? Also, is Theo Riddick a threat to either Bell or Bush?

 

[Toomuchnv]

What percentage of Bell's stats last year came when Bush was hurt? I could have sworn I read somewhere that it was fairly significant

 

[Phenomena]

What percentage of Bell's stats last year came when Bush was hurt? I could have sworn I read somewhere that it was fairly significant

Disagree. Bell did have 130 total yards (4 receptions) during the only game Bush missed, but he also had 1200 yards total for the season and 53 catches. The yardage might have been a bit lower if that game was commite but he's still well north of 1000 yards and ~50 catches. That kind of production is a ### #### steal in the 5th round.

Add to that they are both projecting more catches this year... yea, I own him in almost every league. And I'm getting him at a price that doesn't cripple my team if he doesn't work out as well as anticipated. If he has only 75% of his yards from last year, 40 receptions, and 6-8 TDs he's still flexible.

All that adds up to his floor being worth nearly his current ADP in PPR.

 

[Raider Nation]

Love me some Joique-store!

 

[Saboo]

I fear Riddick will take some of his value.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I'm on the record as being a big fan of both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell in PPR this year. Both backs topped 50 receptions last year, which is impressive... but the Lions are installing New Orleans' offense for 2014, and New Orleans produced two backs with 70 receptions each last year. Which is insane. Since 2006, two coaches have had a season where their RBs were targeted 180+ times. Andy Reid did it once (last year, with Charles and McCluster and a woeful WR/TE corps), and Sean Payton has done it... five times. That New Orleans offense is to PPR RBs what the Mike Shanahan / Alex Gibbs zone-blocking running game was to standard RBs.

As far as putting my money where my mouth is, I took Bush/Bell in the 3rd/4th just last night in a Draftmaster draft (28 rounds, best ball, no in-season transactions- basically just draft and see who did the best job at the end of the year).

Wow, that's a lot to invest in the Lions' backfield. Especially with the additions of Tate & Ebron to a lesser extent.

They were both top-15 backs last year in PPR, and the New Orleans' offense that they're installing is the most favorable offense for PPR scoring in NFL history. I was quite happy to get them as the 12th and 22nd RBs off the board after a huge RB run through the 3rd/4th (starting at pick 27, there were 13 RBs in 17 picks).

I wrote about Bush/Bell and the New Orleans offense earlier this offseason. Here's an excerpt for non-subscribers:

You see, in PPR leagues, New Orleans was one of the three teams whose RBs scored more fantasy points than Detroit’s last year. In fact, the New Orleans Saints produced more points from the RB position than any team other than Kansas City, who was buoyed by the sublime Jamaal Charles. New Orleans’ RBs caught more passes than any other backfield in the league last year, a whopping 54% more than Detroit’s backs combined for. And this was not a 1-year aberration. Since Sean Payton joined the Saints in 2006, the 32 NFL teams have combined for 256 total team-seasons. In PPR scoring, New Orleans’ RBs have combined for six of the top twelve fantasy finishes over that span. The 2011 New Orleans Saints scored more fantasy points from the RB position in PPR leagues than any NFL team since 2006. The 2006 Saints, (featuring Reggie Bush), rank 4th. The 2008 and 2009 Saints, (also featuring Reggie Bush), rank 6th and 7th. The 2012 Saints rank 9th. Last year’s Saints rank 12th. As an entire unit, the New Orleans Saints RBs have outscored fantasy juggernauts like the 2006 San Diego Chargers (powered by Tomlinson’s record-setting season) and the 2002-2005 Kansas City Chiefs (featuring Priest Holmes at his peak). If I were playing in a PPR league, I cannot think of six words that could possibly have me feeling more excited than “our offense will resemble the Saints’”. Footballguys’ Data Dominator has data on team totals going back to 2002. Over that entire span, five of the top six seasons in terms of receptions by RBs have belonged to Sean Peyton’s Saints. Two of those five seasons even date back to the Reggie Bush era.

Basically, New Orleans doesn't feel like a fantasy juggernaut because it typically splits its production 3-4 ways. If it ever concentrated that production into two players like I expect Detroit to do with Bush and Bell, the results would have been unbelievable. As it stands, New Orleans averaged 1.5 top-24 RBs a year under Sean Payton. And, like I said, Detroit is already coming off of a year where both backs ranked in the top 15, so the precedent is already in place. I know the Lions also added Eric Ebron (though rookie TEs usually struggle to make an impact in year 1), and Golden Tate (at Brian Hartline prices), but for the last three years New Orleans has had Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and a cast of quality deep threats (Stills, Morgan, Meachem, Henderson), and they have still thrown the ball to their RBs 180+ times a year. It's a core component of the offensive design.

In PPR, I'm expecting something like a 12th and 18th place finish for the two RBs this year, and if one gets hurt, I think the other instantly becomes a top-5 back.

 

[Adam Harstad]

As far as putting my money where my mouth is, I took Bush/Bell in the 3rd/4th just last night in a Draftmaster draft (28 rounds, best ball, no in-season transactions- basically just draft and see who did the best job at the end of the year).

I don't really see this as putting money where your mouth is when it's Best Ball format. The problem with RBBC backs, and Bell in particular, is that you don't know how reliable they will be or when they will get theirs. A RB2 isn't someone who could get you 14 points one week and 4 the next, that's a 3rd tier TE imo. You need someone that is reliable to get you 10 points a game with a bit of upside, and I'm not sure if RBBC backs like Bell can do that if they're regulated to 3rd down and goal line carries only. Bell can't be considered anything more than a RB3 or flex play with upside until you see Bush go down with injury or Bell prove he has a bigger piece of the pie than most RBBC backs have.

Consistency is unpredictable and inconsistent. The only thing that correlates substantially with consistency is total production. If Joique Bell finishes the season as RB18, I would expect his production to be just as consistent as the four other RBs who finish between RB16-RB20.

 

[Golden Gopher]

Here's a breakdown of the NOS backfield last year:

Thomas 147/549/2 rushing 77/513/3 receiving

Sproles 53/220/2 rushing 71/604/2 receiving

Ingram 78/386/1 rushing 7/68/0 receiving

Robinson 54/224/1 rushing Nothing receiving

That's 155 catches, 332 carries, 2340 yards (rushing/receiving combined), and 11 TD's. Even if you make a very conservative estimate, I think it's reasonable to say that the DET backfield could rack up 130 catches... if they run the NOS offense. The TD total (11) by NOS is actually surprisingly low, and I'd be shocked if Bush/Bell/Riddick don't surpass that, as a group. The question, in my mind, is how will the running game be affected (by the change in offense). Bush/Bell rushed almost 400 times last year combined... That's quite a bit more than the entire NOS backfield last year. So, will the rushes (and rushing yards) drop significantly, assuming the receptions go up? I'd say that they probably WILL drop. By how much? Not sure.

Basically, I think you could say that Bell/Bush are the equivalent to Pierre/Sproles, except that Detroit doesn't have that third RB stealing some goalline work like Ingram did in New Orleans. Then, assume that Riddick might be the equivalent of Robinson (50 or so touches/carries), in that he comes in occasionally to spell the other two. Maybe slightly more than that, given there's no 4th mouth to feed. So, at worst, the three are sharing what would be Ingram's workload.

Put all of that together, and I don't think it's far-fetched to say that Bush/Bell will both catch 50+ balls again (that's their floor), with the upside being that they get into the 60-75 range, in terms of receptions. Add in another 10-20 for Riddick (and that might be generous for him). The less he touches the rock, the more you can argue that Bush/Bell can both be top 10-15 guys.

Obviously, that's a lot of speculation, but if Detroit really is successful in implementing the NOS offense, I could see them both being top-15 RB's in PPR, and maybe higher... especially if you think that they can both approach double-digit TD's.

 

[WagesOfZin]

bell has been a legit RB2 for 2 years running now.

 

[Darryl Talley]

I'd rather have a committee back on a team that scores lots of TDs than a bellcow on a crap team.

 

[mquinnjr]

I'm on the record as being a big fan of both Reggie Bush and Joique Bell in PPR this year. Both backs topped 50 receptions last year, which is impressive... but the Lions are installing New Orleans' offense for 2014, and New Orleans produced two backs with 70 receptions each last year. Which is insane. Since 2006, two coaches have had a season where their RBs were targeted 180+ times. Andy Reid did it once (last year, with Charles and McCluster and a woeful WR/TE corps), and Sean Payton has done it... five times. That New Orleans offense is to PPR RBs what the Mike Shanahan / Alex Gibbs zone-blocking running game was to standard RBs.

As far as putting my money where my mouth is, I took Bush/Bell in the 3rd/4th just last night in a Draftmaster draft (28 rounds, best ball, no in-season transactions- basically just draft and see who did the best job at the end of the year).

Wow, that's a lot to invest in the Lions' backfield. Especially with the additions of Tate & Ebron to a lesser extent.

I drafted both in a 12-team keeper setup, and plan to roll Bush RB2 and Bell RB3 until one gets injured or otherwise. There's points for both in this offense, and I think neither is a stretch for their role on a FF team if you have a mid-high RB2 or better to compliment them.

 

[zftcg]

What percentage of Bell's stats last year came when Bush was hurt? I could have sworn I read somewhere that it was fairly significant

Disagree. Bell did have 130 total yards (4 receptions) during the only game Bush missed, but he also had 1200 yards total for the season and 53 catches. The yardage might have been a bit lower if that game was commite but he's still well north of 1000 yards and ~50 catches. That kind of production is a ### #### steal in the 5th round.

Add to that they are both projecting more catches this year... yea, I own him in almost every league. And I'm getting him at a price that doesn't cripple my team if he doesn't work out as well as anticipated. If he has only 75% of his yards from last year, 40 receptions, and 6-8 TDs he's still flexible.

All that adds up to his floor being worth nearly his current ADP in PPR.

Um, Bush missed least two games last year (WAS and PHI). He was also benched for fumbling in the PIT/NYG games. In those 4 games, Bell accounted for more than 500 YFS and 4 of his 8 TDs. Throw in the GB Thanksgiving blowout, when Bell got a lot of work in mop-up time, and you have basically half of his yardage. Check out his game log and you see a lot of games like Chicago (42 YFS), CLE (33), Dallas (54) and TB (15).

The point is, for all of his production last year, Bell was far from a reliable starter. Instead, he was the prototypical handcuff whose value was almost entirely dependent on Bush being injured/ineffective.

Now, that was last year. I think there have been some indications that things may be different this year. Given that they gave Joique more money, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he becomes the RB1 and Bush reverts to something closer to his NO role. (Shades of ABrown and Wallace a couple years ago, when Pitt made its intentions clear by signing Brown to the long-term deal that Wallace couldn't get).

Still, until we have more clarity, there's a big risk to taking both of them. My thinking right now is that I don't want Bush at his current price, but I'll consider Bell as long as I can get him as my RB3. Taking him as an expected starter could blow up in your face.

 

[Grits_Blitz]

The Chronicles of Riddick may not happen this year.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I don't like him at his current ADP.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

PPR: Yes. Goalline backs that catch 50 balls don't grow on trees. Even if his catches decreased a little bit, this TD potential probably keeps him a low RB2.

I've seen him going mid-late 3rd to early 4th in a couple FFPC drafts. That's a bit too rich for me. But MFL ADP for draft after Aug 25 show, 6.03 ADP which is much much more reasonable.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2015/06/joique_bell_ill_be_surprised_i.html

Lions' Joique Bell: I'd be surprised if I don't rush for 1,200 yards

By Kyle Meinke | kmeinke@mlive.com MLive.com
Follow on Twitter
on June 30, 2015 at 4:59 AM

DETROIT -- Joique Bell isn't worried about the knee injury that has sidelined him for the entirety of this offseason. He isn't worried about the Achilles either.

He really, really isn't.

Bell is so confident about this season, in fact, that he's predicting he'll become the second Detroit Lions running back to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards since 2004 -- and then some.

"I'm going to rush for over 1,200 yards," Bell told MLive.com. "That's the minimum. If I do less than that, I'll be surprised. I'll be disappointed.

"Anything more than that, I wouldn't be surprised at all."

The Lions haven't had a strong track record of 1,000-yard rushers in the post-Barry Sanders era. They were the only team in the league without any from 2005-12.

Reggie Bush finally ended that skid in 2013, when he rushed for 1,006 yards in his first year with Detroit. Bell complemented Bush that season, and they became the first teammates in NFL history to accumulate 500 yards rushing and 500 yards receiving in the same season.

But Bush suffered a string of ankle injuries last season, which paved the way for Bell to earn the first starting job of his career. He made the most of it, too, rushing for 547 yards in the second half of the season and averaging 4.5 yards a pop.

Now he's spent the offseason resting his knee and Achilles, and should return in time for the start of training camp. He is the clear leader to take over for Bush as the starting tailback, and is expecting big things for himself.

"My first year here I rushed for a few hundred (yards)," he said. "Second year, close to (700). Then last year, almost 900. So this next year, I'm just going to jump the gun and say 1,200. That's the minimum."

For the record, Bell rushed for 414 yards in 2012, his first full season with the club, and then 650 in 2013 and another 860 last season. So 1,200 is unchartered territory for him -- though that's not to say it's unattainable, either.

Coach Jim Caldwell has repeatedly said he would like to rush the ball more than he did last season, and would prefer to win on the ground rather than through the air. Detroit has built its roster accordingly, including selecting guard Laken Tomlinson in the first round of the NFL draft, then tailback Ameer Abdullah in the second round.

Detroit now has four early draft picks as projected starters on the offensive line, which should boost the running game -- which, in turn, should encourage the Lions to rush the ball more. So if Bell remains healthy, 1,200 could be within his sights.

But he won't be alone in the backfield, either. Abdullah, the rookie out of Nebraska, could take over Bush's role as the speed complement to Bell's power. Third-year back Theo Riddick should also factor into the rotation, particularly as a pass-catcher.

As for Bell, he's been resting on vacation in Hawaii for the past week. He'll return to Michigan soon to resume his rehab.

He'll also host a youth football camp on July 13 at Bloomfield Hills High School. For more information, visit ysportzcamps.com or call (248) 820-1919.

 

[flapgreen]

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