Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Jamaal Charles Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Todem]

Breakout year for Charles. Believe the hype.

1300 yards Rushing with 7 TD's 48 receptions for 425 yards 5 TD's

Big time talent who's time has come. I don't view Thomas Jones as anything but veteran depth. Charles will be the lead dog. The job his is to run with.

 

[Jason Wood]

Breakout year for Charles. Believe the hype.1100 yards Rushing with 7 TD's 48 receptions for 425 yards 5 TD'sBig time talent who's time has come. I don't view Thomas Jones as anything but veteran depth. Charles will be the lead dog. The job his is to run with.

I'm OK with your view that he's going to have a breakout year and that Thomas Jones is depth (I don't necessarily agree, but that's what these threads are for). But I struggle with the projections you've tacked on in support of your assertion that he's going to break out.1100 yards rushing -- He had 1,120 LAST year despite only starting 10 games7 rushing TDs -- He had 7 rushing TDs last year48 receptions -- He had 40 last yearNow where you do go out on a limb are his receiving yards and TD projections. You have him at 425 and 5, versus last year when he had 297 yards and 1 receiving TD. Only 6 RBs in the last decade have had 5+ receiving TDs in a season, and they've played for potent passing attacks save for perhaps Kyle Williams, who was the ultimate outlier (5 TD recs on 17 receptions as a fullback).

 

[z14jcb]

1400 yards rushing

60 rec 480yds

10 total touchdowns.

PPR league, 308points (pretty damn good)

 

[rzrback77]

The Kansas City Chiefs have not had a solid offensive season in a while. Their passing efficiency has dipped as follows:

1) 07 59.6% completion percentage down in 09 to 55.3%

2) 07 6.3 ypa down in 09 to 5.9

3) 07 Passing yardage 3525 yds down to 3157 yards

They just haven't gotten the job done passing the ball. However, their rushing attack has improved over

the same period. Consider that:

1) yards per carry in 07 was 3.77 and in 09 was 4.40

2) rushing attempts was 383 in 07 and up to 435 in 09

Last season, Jamaal Charles had phenomenal success rushing 190 times in 15 games for 5.9 ypc and 1120 yards. The accomplishment is even more stunning when you consider that he never had more than six carries until week 10. From week 10 on, he averaged 20 carries per game with a 4.84 yards per carry average and 968 yards. He averaged 96.8 yards rushing per game. Alll the while, he was also a prominent target as well, getting 40 catches on the year.

I think that Kansas City will again have success running the ball. I think that the biggest consideration for making a projection for Jamaal Charles is how successful Thomas Jones can be in his first season as a Chief. Even though Jones is entering his eleventh NFL season and will be 32 as the season opens, he has been very successful over the past seven seasons and averaged 4.2 ypc on 322 carries last year for the Jets. He looked slower in the playoffs and was outplayed by Shonn Greene, but he had 342 touches and was successful for the entire season scoring 14 TDs. Was last year his final hurrah or was he worn down before the playoffs, where he averaged only 2.0 ypc?

I think that Charles will not be as heavily used as we was down the stretch and will not have quite the production that most anticipate. However, if Jones truly has lost effectiveness or gets injured, then Charles will again be the man for the Chiefs.

Jamaal Charles 16 gms 210 carries 1008 yards 4.8 ypc 65 targets 48 catches 384 yds 8.0 ypc and 8 TDs

 

[Routilla]

1200, 10 and 550, 3

 

[KellysHeroes]

Charles put up some great numbers at the end of the season but he was also shut down against some of the better teams

vs Pitt who weren't as good as they normally are he went 17 for 58; he had a nice ST TD put everyone was scoring ST TDs against Pitt.

vs Den he went 18 for 56

at Cinny he went 24 for 102

against those 3 teams Charles had a low 3.66 YPC, on a positive note he did score 2 TDs against 3 of those teams and both TDs were within the 5 yd line.

Charles also blew up the Raiders, Bills, & Browns for 400 yards and a crazy 6.3 ypc.

Charles also had a good game against the Chargers during that time period going 18 for 93

I think hes going to be a Fantasy disappointment for where hes getting drafted. Hes a high RB2 that can single-handly win you the week with one of his big games but I don't see him as a RB1 that you can depend on each week.

I don't think he can handle more than 200 carries before his YPC really get affected vy the pounding.

225 carries for 1050 / 45 recs (about 3 a game) for 350 / 8 TDs

 

[Abstract]

Charles put up some great numbers at the end of the season but he was also shut down against some of the better teamsvs Pitt who weren't as good as they normally are he went 17 for 58; he had a nice ST TD put everyone was scoring ST TDs against Pitt.vs Den he went 18 for 56at Cinny he went 24 for 102 against those 3 teams Charles had a low 3.66 YPC, on a positive note he did score 2 TDs against 3 of those teams and both TDs were within the 5 yd line.Charles also blew up the Raiders, Bills, & Browns for 400 yards and a crazy 6.3 ypc. Charles also had a good game against the Chargers during that time period going 18 for 93I think hes going to be a Fantasy disappointment for where hes getting drafted. Hes a high RB2 that can single-handly win you the week with one of his big games but I don't see him as a RB1 that you can depend on each week.I don't think he can handle more than 200 carries before his YPC really get affected vy the pounding.225 carries for 1050 / 45 recs (about 3 a game) for 350 / 8 TDs

You failed to mention what Charles did to Denver during the last game of the season. He went for 25-259-2

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

The guy has fresh legs and the Chiefs system compliment his skill set. I doubt he'll get many goal line touches with a proven TD back like Jones in the mix. I think he'll get the same numbers as last year (yes I know he didn't start the whole year) and if so he WILL be worth his late second round pick.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

let's not forget that Charles had serious enough shoulder surgery in January that he was still not back on the field in May. This very well could explain why the Chiefs signed Thomas Jones, because they have first-hand proof that Charles won't hold up as a full-time feature back.

 

[fightingillini]

With Charles, you need to look forward and not backward to last season. Obviously, KC didn't feel that Charles could shoulder the whole load for 16 games, so they brought in Thomas Jones. I see Charles getting 60% the carries and the vast majority of the receptions, so Charles will still be a solid #2RB, especially in PPR. Charles' value dips due to Jones vulturing TDs near the goalline.

200 car, 925 yds rushing, 5 TD

50 rec, 425 yds rec, 3 TD.

 

[Creed Bratton]

With Charles, you need to look forward and not backward to last season. Obviously, KC didn't feel that Charles could shoulder the whole load for 16 games, so they brought in Thomas Jones. I see Charles getting 60% the carries and the vast majority of the receptions, so Charles will still be a solid #2RB, especially in PPR. Charles' value dips due to Jones vulturing TDs near the goalline.200 car, 925 yds rushing, 5 TD50 rec, 425 yds rec, 3 TD.

I really don't see how it's possible that jamaal charles gets 200 carries in sixteen games. Do you really think he's only going to get 12-13 carries a game? the only way that happens is if thomas jones takes the starting spot from him. And jones is 32 years old and just got outplayed by his backup last season.250 carries 1200 yds rushing 40 receptions 300 yards and 9 total touchdowns.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I really don't see how it's possible that jamaal charles gets 200 carries in sixteen games. Do you really think he's only going to get 12-13 carries a game? the only way that happens is if thomas jones takes the starting spot from him. And jones is 32 years old and just got outplayed by his backup last season.

Really?1460 YFS & 14 TD's. But Shonn Greene has a great playoffs and now he outplayed him last year? C'mon man.

What happened was that Thomas Jones was due to cost $5.8M in 2010. At the same time, Greene showed flashes of being a #1 RB and so the Jets seeing better value and long term potential in the guy they had just drafted, decided to go the youth route.

Instead of demanding Jones, coming off A CAREER YEAR, take a salary cut AND a reduced role in the offense (which probably would not have played well in the locker room), the Jets made a tough call. They used half of the money to sign a veteran in Tomlinson whose production fell more in line with the type of role they could dictate to him.

So getting back to Jones...yes, I think KC sees a guy who finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing in 2009 as having a significant role in the offense that could limit Charles to 12-13 carries/game. That and the fact that KC, as much as they may want to run the ball, may not be in a position to dictate game tempo alot of the time.

There is no debating that Charles was lights out at the end of the season. But his 100 yard games came against:

Oakland: finished 29th in rushing D

Buffalo: finished 30th in rushing D

Cleveland: finished 28th in rushing D

Cincinnati: finished 7th in rushing D

Denver: finished 26th in rushing D

...the Cincy game was his least impressive 100 yard performance 24/102 long of 14 yards. And with 4 of these performance in the final 4 weeks against putrid teams or teams falling apart (i.e; Denver which allowed Jamarcus Russell to come off the bench and beat them)...he wasn't exactly facing geeked up teams.

IMO, I think Charles is an extremely risky pick in Round 2 and he fits the profile of one of those late season bloomers that kicks ### against subpar competition that isn't preparing properly/mailing it in. I think the Chiefs looked at what happened with the Texans and Steve Slaton last year and determined they didn't want to find themselves in the same position - depending on a smaller back to carry their rushing attack. This isn't to say Charles will ride the pine. But he won't be a bellcow and his value looks more like 4th/5th round to me. And while he'll certainly be situational, Dexter McCluster's presence on the Chiefs could mean another 50 or so carries that Charles won't get. Even if they are working him at WR, I suspect that he'll get 2-3 rushes/game out of some crazy formation.

Lastly, when you consider that the Chiefs first 6 weeks look like this:

Week 1: SD

Week 2: @CLE

Week 3: SF

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: @IND

Week 6: @HOU

...teams that can either dictate frenetic offensive tempo (IND, HOU, SD) and/or defend the run fiercely (SF, HOU, SD), that doesn't spell a formula for success on the ground. Coupled with the fact that the Chiefs defense doesn't seem anymore prepared or ready to stop opposing offenses, and I would draft Jonathan Stewart ahead of Charles.

Prediction: 196 carries, 952 rushing yards 6 TD's, 45 receptions 318 yards 1 TD.

 

[Instinctive]

It's tought to predict Charles for as many touches as many seem wont to do here, especially since he had shoulder surgery and still isn't playing yet. Nothign says "20 a game is to much" like a resulting surgery. Last year he was the only guy. This year they can give McCluster more of those screen-type passes and short underneath routes, and Thomas Jones can take a hefty amount of carries.

I would predict Charles averages about 16-17 rushes a game, for around 290 total touches, about 240 of which will be carries. He could hit 1100 yards rushing, and I would feel confident in predicting another 200 receiving.

I know he rushed for more last year. But he also had 5.9 ypc. You just don't repeat that type of per carry average year to year. He won't see 20 rushes a game, although 20 total touches per game, 3-4 being receptions, is still a really nice baseline.

If this is the year to grab a STUD WR in the first, then Charles could be your guy in the early 2nd. (12 teamers)

 

[pantherclub]

Does the shoulder not concern anyone else?

 

[Instinctive]

Does the shoulder not concern anyone else?

I think the injury itself is more an indicator that his touches will be reduced to something he can handle than it is a serious cause for performance-related concern.

 

[pantherclub]

Does the shoulder not concern anyone else?

I think the injury itself is more an indicator that his touches will be reduced to something he can handle than it is a serious cause for performance-related concern.

So he is still a gamble somewhat as a RB#2?

 

[The Moz]

As a playmaker sorry McCluster is the best playmaker on that team. Anyone that thinks T. Jones won't get at least 35% of carries if not more is fooling themselves.

Much of Charles screens will be taken by McCluster who is better and more explosive -- if McCluster was 20-25Lbs heavier he would a been the #1 RB taken. If McCluster adds weight and gets to about 185-190 he will be the main eventually.

Charles where he is going is nuts -- sorry mid 2nd rounder - no thanks

 

[gianmarco]

With Charles, you need to look forward and not backward to last season. Obviously, KC didn't feel that Charles could shoulder the whole load for 16 games, so they brought in Thomas Jones. I see Charles getting 60% the carries and the vast majority of the receptions, so Charles will still be a solid #2RB, especially in PPR. Charles' value dips due to Jones vulturing TDs near the goalline.

200 car, 925 yds rushing, 5 TD

50 rec, 425 yds rec, 3 TD.

As opposed to not bringing in Thomas Jones and having Jackie Battle as the main backup on the team? They didn't bring in Thomas Jones because of Charles. They brought in T. Jones because they had to bring in SOMEONE. Might as well get the best available FA at a very cheap price ($2.5 million). Do you seriously think they had an option to not bring anyone in?

I'd be much more concerned if they had brought in a young RB through the draft or FA than acquiring Jones. See Slaton, Steve. See Harrison, Jerome. See Sproles, Darren. See Lynch, Marshawn.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I really don't see how it's possible that jamaal charles gets 200 carries in sixteen games. Do you really think he's only going to get 12-13 carries a game? the only way that happens is if thomas jones takes the starting spot from him. And jones is 32 years old and just got outplayed by his backup last season.

Really?1460 YFS & 14 TD's. But Shonn Greene has a great playoffs and now he outplayed him last year? C'mon man.

What happened was that Thomas Jones was due to cost $5.8M in 2010. At the same time, Greene showed flashes of being a #1 RB and so the Jets seeing better value and long term potential in the guy they had just drafted, decided to go the youth route.

Instead of demanding Jones, coming off A CAREER YEAR, take a salary cut AND a reduced role in the offense (which probably would not have played well in the locker room), the Jets made a tough call. They used half of the money to sign a veteran in Tomlinson whose production fell more in line with the type of role they could dictate to him.

So getting back to Jones...yes, I think KC sees a guy who finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing in 2009 as having a significant role in the offense that could limit Charles to 12-13 carries/game. That and the fact that KC, as much as they may want to run the ball, may not be in a position to dictate game tempo alot of the time.

There is no debating that Charles was lights out at the end of the season. But his 100 yard games came against:

Oakland: finished 29th in rushing D

Buffalo: finished 30th in rushing D

Cleveland: finished 28th in rushing D

Cincinnati: finished 7th in rushing D

Denver: finished 26th in rushing D

...the Cincy game was his least impressive 100 yard performance 24/102 long of 14 yards. And with 4 of these performance in the final 4 weeks against putrid teams or teams falling apart (i.e; Denver which allowed Jamarcus Russell to come off the bench and beat them)...he wasn't exactly facing geeked up teams.

IMO, I think Charles is an extremely risky pick in Round 2 and he fits the profile of one of those late season bloomers that kicks ### against subpar competition that isn't preparing properly/mailing it in. I think the Chiefs looked at what happened with the Texans and Steve Slaton last year and determined they didn't want to find themselves in the same position - depending on a smaller back to carry their rushing attack. This isn't to say Charles will ride the pine. But he won't be a bellcow and his value looks more like 4th/5th round to me. And while he'll certainly be situational, Dexter McCluster's presence on the Chiefs could mean another 50 or so carries that Charles won't get. Even if they are working him at WR, I suspect that he'll get 2-3 rushes/game out of some crazy formation.

Lastly, when you consider that the Chiefs first 6 weeks look like this:

Week 1: SD

Week 2: @CLE

Week 3: SF

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: @IND

Week 6: @HOU

...teams that can either dictate frenetic offensive tempo (IND, HOU, SD) and/or defend the run fiercely (SF, HOU, SD), that doesn't spell a formula for success on the ground. Coupled with the fact that the Chiefs defense doesn't seem anymore prepared or ready to stop opposing offenses, and I would draft Jonathan Stewart ahead of Charles.

Prediction: 196 carries, 952 rushing yards 6 TD's, 45 receptions 318 yards 1 TD.

Yeah, i think it's perfectly reasonable to say thomas jones got outplayed by shonn greene. Greene didn't get any significant carries till about week 7 last year and spent the rest of the season getting more yards per carry than jones in every single game they played together except once. He went from being more productive in limited touches during the second half of the season to getting more carries AND being more productive in the playoffs. And after the playoffs were over he took his job. That's pretty much the definition of a rookie outplaying a veteran. While it's true that the jets got rid of thomas jones for reasons including financial considerations and age, they actually paid LT(he of the disastrous season last year who looked all sorts of washed up) more money than what the chiefs are paying thomas jones. So i guess they weren't too impressed by the 1400 yard career season.

I don't think there's anything wrong with downgrading charles because you don't think that he has the talent or because you've only seen half a season, although, it's not a viewpoint i would necessarily agree with. I do think that it's pretty unlikely that jones is going to take the starting job unless charles gets injured or somehow falls extremely out of favor with the coaching staff. Like i said, 200 carries in 16 games is 12.5 carries a game which is kind of ridiculous.

And i think the chiefs have a schedule that is pretty good for the upcoming season since the afc west, nfc west, and afc south aren't exactly defensive powerhouses. As far as McCluster goes, it's true he's going to be more of a situational player, but i don't think he's going to impact the numbers that much unless he explodes. Learning one position as a rookie is hard enough for young players, learning two can lead to a pretty steep learning curve. It's one reason why tight ends aren't usually productive right away because the have the learn the route running and the blocking assignments.

 

[baconisgood]

1460 YFS & 14 TD's. But Shonn Greene has a great playoffs and now he outplayed him last year? C'mon man.

Leon and Greene averaged 4.8 y/c on 180 carries last year and Jones averaged 4.2 behind what is arguably the top running offensive line in the league. He was also dramatically outperformed as a receiver by washington in his time there.

What happened was that Thomas Jones was due to cost $5.8M in 2010. At the same time, Greene showed flashes of being a #1 RB and so the Jets seeing better value and long term potential in the guy they had just drafted, decided to go the youth route.

Instead of demanding Jones, coming off A CAREER YEAR, take a salary cut AND a reduced role in the offense (which probably would not have played well in the locker room), the Jets made a tough call. They used half of the money to sign a veteran in Tomlinson whose production fell more in line with the type of role they could dictate to him.

So getting back to Jones...yes, I think KC sees a guy who finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing in 2009 as having a significant role in the offense that could limit Charles to 12-13 carries/game. That and the fact that KC, as much as they may want to run the ball, may not be in a position to dictate game tempo alot of the time.

There is no debating that Charles was lights out at the end of the season. But his 100 yard games came against:

Oakland: finished 29th in rushing D

Buffalo: finished 30th in rushing D

Cleveland: finished 28th in rushing D

Cincinnati: finished 7th in rushing D

Denver: finished 26th in rushing D

...the Cincy game was his least impressive 100 yard performance 24/102 long of 14 yards. And with 4 of these performance in the final 4 weeks against putrid teams or teams falling apart (i.e; Denver which allowed Jamarcus Russell to come off the bench and beat them)...he wasn't exactly facing geeked up teams.

IMO, I think Charles is an extremely risky pick in Round 2 and he fits the profile of one of those late season bloomers that kicks ### against subpar competition that isn't preparing properly/mailing it in. I think the Chiefs looked at what happened with the Texans and Steve Slaton last year and determined they didn't want to find themselves in the same position - depending on a smaller back to carry their rushing attack. This isn't to say Charles will ride the pine. But he won't be a bellcow and his value looks more like 4th/5th round to me. And while he'll certainly be situational, Dexter McCluster's presence on the Chiefs could mean another 50 or so carries that Charles won't get. Even if they are working him at WR, I suspect that he'll get 2-3 rushes/game out of some crazy formation.

Lastly, when you consider that the Chiefs first 6 weeks look like this:

Week 1: SD

Week 2: @CLE

Week 3: SF

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: @IND

Week 6: @HOU

...teams that can either dictate frenetic offensive tempo (IND, HOU, SD) and/or defend the run fiercely (SF, HOU, SD), that doesn't spell a formula for success on the ground. Coupled with the fact that the Chiefs defense doesn't seem anymore prepared or ready to stop opposing offenses, and I would draft Jonathan Stewart ahead of Charles.

Prediction: 196 carries, 952 rushing yards 6 TD's, 45 receptions 318 yards 1 TD.

I know a lot of non Cleveland fans don't know this- but their running defense was HORRIBLE the first 8 weeks of the season- through week 8 they didn't give up LESS than 140 yards on the ground in a game. In the 2nd half of the season the Browns held 4 teams to under 100 yards rushing and won 4 straight to finish the season. While still a less than stellar team their defense against the run in the 2nd half of the season was much closer to a 20th ranked D than the 28th ranked D.

 

[The Moz]

Dex is the best RB on KC he just needs to add weight -- the man tore up SEC defenses last year and was basically unstoppable - IMO he was better than Ingram when he got his chance as the feature back. He is not Percy Harvin -- If Dex can add 20 Lbs and keep his movement and explosiveness he might become one of the best backs in the league

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Dex is the best RB on KC he just needs to add weight -- the man tore up SEC defenses last year and was basically unstoppable - IMO he was better than Ingram when he got his chance as the feature back. He is not Percy Harvin -- If Dex can add 20 Lbs and keep his movement and explosiveness he might become one of the best backs in the league

Egad.Dex is a skilled player that will be unlikely to ever be more than a gimmick type of player. Size matters in the NFL.

 

[Gopher State]

Jones was not signed to ride the bench

I read where the coaching staff has said some games TJ will have more carries then Charles

The injury is a bigger deal then people want to admit

I see Charles getting 190 carries, 890 yards, 4 td's, 30 catches 180 yards 1 td

Charles makes a nice #3 or 4 RB for FF teams

 

[The Moz]

people all he needs to do is add 20 lbs which is done all the time in the NFL he weighs about 170 now.

the Heisman winner Ingram

tenn - 18-99 no TD's

Aub - 16-30 -- rec 3-21 no scores

ark - 17 - 50 3-21 2 scores

bowl game - 27 - 116 re 2-12 2 scores

McCluster ( only started 1/2 the year as the feature back )

Ark - 22 - 123 rec 7-137 1 score

aub - 22 - 186 rec 4-17 1 score

tenn - 25 - 282 rec 4-42 4 scores

bowl game - 34 - 184 re 5-45 2 scores

NOTE: McCluster had no where near the Oline Ingram had/has or the team or defense. Still his stats BLEW Ingram away!!!

he might never be a GL back but a B. Westbrook for certain once he add weight.

his stats blew away spillers as well -- I won't compare Mathews as he played in a weaker division defensively.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I really don't see how it's possible that jamaal charles gets 200 carries in sixteen games. Do you really think he's only going to get 12-13 carries a game? the only way that happens is if thomas jones takes the starting spot from him. And jones is 32 years old and just got outplayed by his backup last season.

Really?1460 YFS & 14 TD's. But Shonn Greene has a great playoffs and now he outplayed him last year? C'mon man.

What happened was that Thomas Jones was due to cost $5.8M in 2010. At the same time, Greene showed flashes of being a #1 RB and so the Jets seeing better value and long term potential in the guy they had just drafted, decided to go the youth route.

Instead of demanding Jones, coming off A CAREER YEAR, take a salary cut AND a reduced role in the offense (which probably would not have played well in the locker room), the Jets made a tough call. They used half of the money to sign a veteran in Tomlinson whose production fell more in line with the type of role they could dictate to him.

So getting back to Jones...yes, I think KC sees a guy who finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing in 2009 as having a significant role in the offense that could limit Charles to 12-13 carries/game. That and the fact that KC, as much as they may want to run the ball, may not be in a position to dictate game tempo alot of the time.

There is no debating that Charles was lights out at the end of the season. But his 100 yard games came against:

Oakland: finished 29th in rushing D

Buffalo: finished 30th in rushing D

Cleveland: finished 28th in rushing D

Cincinnati: finished 7th in rushing D

Denver: finished 26th in rushing D

...the Cincy game was his least impressive 100 yard performance 24/102 long of 14 yards. And with 4 of these performance in the final 4 weeks against putrid teams or teams falling apart (i.e; Denver which allowed Jamarcus Russell to come off the bench and beat them)...he wasn't exactly facing geeked up teams.

IMO, I think Charles is an extremely risky pick in Round 2 and he fits the profile of one of those late season bloomers that kicks ### against subpar competition that isn't preparing properly/mailing it in. I think the Chiefs looked at what happened with the Texans and Steve Slaton last year and determined they didn't want to find themselves in the same position - depending on a smaller back to carry their rushing attack. This isn't to say Charles will ride the pine. But he won't be a bellcow and his value looks more like 4th/5th round to me. And while he'll certainly be situational, Dexter McCluster's presence on the Chiefs could mean another 50 or so carries that Charles won't get. Even if they are working him at WR, I suspect that he'll get 2-3 rushes/game out of some crazy formation.

Lastly, when you consider that the Chiefs first 6 weeks look like this:

Week 1: SD

Week 2: @CLE

Week 3: SF

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: @IND

Week 6: @HOU

...teams that can either dictate frenetic offensive tempo (IND, HOU, SD) and/or defend the run fiercely (SF, HOU, SD), that doesn't spell a formula for success on the ground. Coupled with the fact that the Chiefs defense doesn't seem anymore prepared or ready to stop opposing offenses, and I would draft Jonathan Stewart ahead of Charles.

Prediction: 196 carries, 952 rushing yards 6 TD's, 45 receptions 318 yards 1 TD.

Yeah, i think it's perfectly reasonable to say thomas jones got outplayed by shonn greene. Greene didn't get any significant carries till about week 7 last year and spent the rest of the season getting more yards per carry than jones in every single game they played together except once. He went from being more productive in limited touches during the second half of the season to getting more carries AND being more productive in the playoffs. And after the playoffs were over he took his job. That's pretty much the definition of a rookie outplaying a veteran. While it's true that the jets got rid of thomas jones for reasons including financial considerations and age, they actually paid LT(he of the disastrous season last year who looked all sorts of washed up) more money than what the chiefs are paying thomas jones. So i guess they weren't too impressed by the 1400 yard career season.

I don't think there's anything wrong with downgrading charles because you don't think that he has the talent or because you've only seen half a season, although, it's not a viewpoint i would necessarily agree with. I do think that it's pretty unlikely that jones is going to take the starting job unless charles gets injured or somehow falls extremely out of favor with the coaching staff. Like i said, 200 carries in 16 games is 12.5 carries a game which is kind of ridiculous.

And i think the chiefs have a schedule that is pretty good for the upcoming season since the afc west, nfc west, and afc south aren't exactly defensive powerhouses. As far as McCluster goes, it's true he's going to be more of a situational player, but i don't think he's going to impact the numbers that much unless he explodes. Learning one position as a rookie is hard enough for young players, learning two can lead to a pretty steep learning curve. It's one reason why tight ends aren't usually productive right away because the have the learn the route running and the blocking assignments.

To say that Greene outproduced/outplayed Jones in the playoffs is obvious. To say that he outproduced/outplayed him upon starting to get carries in Week 7 is ludicrous.Stats from Week 7-17 (10 games)

Jones: 235/921/8/6/40/0

Greene: 101/510/2/0/0/0

Nobody is saying that Greene didn't show enough to the Jets to warrant the move they made. But that production above is not being 'outplayed'. Sorry. Jerious Norwood did not 'outplay' Michael Turner in 2008 when his YPC was 5.1 to Burner's 4.5.

But let's look at this from the perspective of workload available.

The Chiefs had 438 rushing attempts in 2009 of which 52 were handled by either the QB or P. That left 386 for RB's and WR's. At 196 carries, I'm actually predicting Charles to receive over 50% of that workload if the pattern holds true.

Let's say my prediction of McCluster getting 40-45 carries holds true - and to your point, this isn't a big workload at all for a rookie even if he is learning multiple positions.. That leaves 145-150 carries left for Jones (and does not take into account the randomness of playcalling that results in bit players like Bobby Wade and Tim Castille getting a carry here and there) for the whole year - basically in the 8-9 range/game.

And you are saying that this prediction is ridiculous? Someone said above, who was Charles competing for carries with last year? The answer was noone. The reason Jones is brought on board is to lighten the load on Charles because in the final 8 games, the Chiefs ran him at a 16 game pace of 368 touches. Is it really unrealistic to expect a (35%) decrease to that pace to 241 touches by bringing in a player of Jones ilk? Michael Turner is said to have broken down because of 382 touches he had in 2008 and he's much more equipped to handle the punishment.

The acquisition of Jones and drafting of McCluster wasn't an indictment of Charles talent. But it was a realization of the type of back and player Charles. IMO having him not take a 250-300 carry pounding is the reason both players were acquired and it shows in the prediction. That said, his body of work was compiled largely against cream puffs so even that might be misleading.

 

[gianmarco]

Jones was not signed to ride the bench

I read where the coaching staff has said some games TJ will have more carries then Charles

The injury is a bigger deal then people want to admit

I see Charles getting 190 carries, 890 yards, 4 td's, 30 catches 180 yards 1 td

Charles makes a nice #3 or 4 RB for FF teams

He also wasn't signed to start.

 

[The Moz]

I really don't see how it's possible that jamaal charles gets 200 carries in sixteen games. Do you really think he's only going to get 12-13 carries a game? the only way that happens is if thomas jones takes the starting spot from him. And jones is 32 years old and just got outplayed by his backup last season.

Really?1460 YFS & 14 TD's. But Shonn Greene has a great playoffs and now he outplayed him last year? C'mon man.

What happened was that Thomas Jones was due to cost $5.8M in 2010. At the same time, Greene showed flashes of being a #1 RB and so the Jets seeing better value and long term potential in the guy they had just drafted, decided to go the youth route.

Instead of demanding Jones, coming off A CAREER YEAR, take a salary cut AND a reduced role in the offense (which probably would not have played well in the locker room), the Jets made a tough call. They used half of the money to sign a veteran in Tomlinson whose production fell more in line with the type of role they could dictate to him.

So getting back to Jones...yes, I think KC sees a guy who finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing in 2009 as having a significant role in the offense that could limit Charles to 12-13 carries/game. That and the fact that KC, as much as they may want to run the ball, may not be in a position to dictate game tempo alot of the time.

There is no debating that Charles was lights out at the end of the season. But his 100 yard games came against:

Oakland: finished 29th in rushing D

Buffalo: finished 30th in rushing D

Cleveland: finished 28th in rushing D

Cincinnati: finished 7th in rushing D

Denver: finished 26th in rushing D

...the Cincy game was his least impressive 100 yard performance 24/102 long of 14 yards. And with 4 of these performance in the final 4 weeks against putrid teams or teams falling apart (i.e; Denver which allowed Jamarcus Russell to come off the bench and beat them)...he wasn't exactly facing geeked up teams.

IMO, I think Charles is an extremely risky pick in Round 2 and he fits the profile of one of those late season bloomers that kicks ### against subpar competition that isn't preparing properly/mailing it in. I think the Chiefs looked at what happened with the Texans and Steve Slaton last year and determined they didn't want to find themselves in the same position - depending on a smaller back to carry their rushing attack. This isn't to say Charles will ride the pine. But he won't be a bellcow and his value looks more like 4th/5th round to me. And while he'll certainly be situational, Dexter McCluster's presence on the Chiefs could mean another 50 or so carries that Charles won't get. Even if they are working him at WR, I suspect that he'll get 2-3 rushes/game out of some crazy formation.

Lastly, when you consider that the Chiefs first 6 weeks look like this:

Week 1: SD

Week 2: @CLE

Week 3: SF

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: @IND

Week 6: @HOU

...teams that can either dictate frenetic offensive tempo (IND, HOU, SD) and/or defend the run fiercely (SF, HOU, SD), that doesn't spell a formula for success on the ground. Coupled with the fact that the Chiefs defense doesn't seem anymore prepared or ready to stop opposing offenses, and I would draft Jonathan Stewart ahead of Charles.

Prediction: 196 carries, 952 rushing yards 6 TD's, 45 receptions 318 yards 1 TD.

Yeah, i think it's perfectly reasonable to say thomas jones got outplayed by shonn greene. Greene didn't get any significant carries till about week 7 last year and spent the rest of the season getting more yards per carry than jones in every single game they played together except once. He went from being more productive in limited touches during the second half of the season to getting more carries AND being more productive in the playoffs. And after the playoffs were over he took his job. That's pretty much the definition of a rookie outplaying a veteran. While it's true that the jets got rid of thomas jones for reasons including financial considerations and age, they actually paid LT(he of the disastrous season last year who looked all sorts of washed up) more money than what the chiefs are paying thomas jones. So i guess they weren't too impressed by the 1400 yard career season.

I don't think there's anything wrong with downgrading charles because you don't think that he has the talent or because you've only seen half a season, although, it's not a viewpoint i would necessarily agree with. I do think that it's pretty unlikely that jones is going to take the starting job unless charles gets injured or somehow falls extremely out of favor with the coaching staff. Like i said, 200 carries in 16 games is 12.5 carries a game which is kind of ridiculous.

And i think the chiefs have a schedule that is pretty good for the upcoming season since the afc west, nfc west, and afc south aren't exactly defensive powerhouses. As far as McCluster goes, it's true he's going to be more of a situational player, but i don't think he's going to impact the numbers that much unless he explodes. Learning one position as a rookie is hard enough for young players, learning two can lead to a pretty steep learning curve. It's one reason why tight ends aren't usually productive right away because the have the learn the route running and the blocking assignments.

To say that Greene outproduced/outplayed Jones in the playoffs is obvious. To say that he outproduced/outplayed him upon starting to get carries in Week 7 is ludicrous.Stats from Week 7-17 (10 games)

Jones: 235/921/8/6/40/0

Greene: 101/510/2/0/0/0

Nobody is saying that Greene didn't show enough to the Jets to warrant the move they made. But that production above is not being 'outplayed'. Sorry. Jerious Norwood did not 'outplay' Michael Turner in 2008 when his YPC was 5.1 to Burner's 4.5.

But let's look at this from the perspective of workload available.

The Chiefs had 438 rushing attempts in 2009 of which 52 were handled by either the QB or P. That left 386 for RB's and WR's. At 196 carries, I'm actually predicting Charles to receive over 50% of that workload if the pattern holds true.

Let's say my prediction of McCluster getting 40-45 carries holds true - and to your point, this isn't a big workload at all for a rookie even if he is learning multiple positions.. That leaves 145-150 carries left for Jones (and does not take into account the randomness of playcalling that results in bit players like Bobby Wade and Tim Castille getting a carry here and there) for the whole year - basically in the 8-9 range/game.

And you are saying that this prediction is ridiculous? Someone said above, who was Charles competing for carries with last year? The answer was noone. The reason Jones is brought on board is to lighten the load on Charles because in the final 8 games, the Chiefs ran him at a 16 game pace of 368 touches. Is it really unrealistic to expect a (35%) decrease to that pace to 241 touches by bringing in a player of Jones ilk? Michael Turner is said to have broken down because of 382 touches he had in 2008 and he's much more equipped to handle the punishment.

The acquisition of Jones and drafting of McCluster wasn't an indictment of Charles talent. But it was a realization of the type of back and player Charles. IMO having him not take a 250-300 carry pounding is the reason both players were acquired and it shows in the prediction. That said, his body of work was compiled largely against cream puffs so even that might be misleading.

McCluster is better than Charles and once he puts the weight on will be the feature back sooner than later. McCluster is a CJIII type of back -- too bad most people can't see it.

 

[The Moz]

Jones was not signed to ride the bench

I read where the coaching staff has said some games TJ will have more carries then Charles

The injury is a bigger deal then people want to admit

I see Charles getting 190 carries, 890 yards, 4 td's, 30 catches 180 yards 1 td

Charles makes a nice #3 or 4 RB for FF teams

He also wasn't signed to start.

Charles will start and get 15-18 carries many rec will go to dex so don't expect as high a PPR ratio as last year. By seasons end expect McCluster to start getting more and more carries. Unless he decided to stay at 168-170 and no add weight then he will be a slot rec. If thats the case what a waste of pure talent

 

[Chimp Magnet]

I really don't see how it's possible that jamaal charles gets 200 carries in sixteen games. Do you really think he's only going to get 12-13 carries a game? the only way that happens is if thomas jones takes the starting spot from him. And jones is 32 years old and just got outplayed by his backup last season.

Really?1460 YFS & 14 TD's. But Shonn Greene has a great playoffs and now he outplayed him last year? C'mon man.

What happened was that Thomas Jones was due to cost $5.8M in 2010. At the same time, Greene showed flashes of being a #1 RB and so the Jets seeing better value and long term potential in the guy they had just drafted, decided to go the youth route.

Instead of demanding Jones, coming off A CAREER YEAR, take a salary cut AND a reduced role in the offense (which probably would not have played well in the locker room), the Jets made a tough call. They used half of the money to sign a veteran in Tomlinson whose production fell more in line with the type of role they could dictate to him.

So getting back to Jones...yes, I think KC sees a guy who finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing in 2009 as having a significant role in the offense that could limit Charles to 12-13 carries/game. That and the fact that KC, as much as they may want to run the ball, may not be in a position to dictate game tempo alot of the time.

There is no debating that Charles was lights out at the end of the season. But his 100 yard games came against:

Oakland: finished 29th in rushing D

Buffalo: finished 30th in rushing D

Cleveland: finished 28th in rushing D

Cincinnati: finished 7th in rushing D

Denver: finished 26th in rushing D

...the Cincy game was his least impressive 100 yard performance 24/102 long of 14 yards. And with 4 of these performance in the final 4 weeks against putrid teams or teams falling apart (i.e; Denver which allowed Jamarcus Russell to come off the bench and beat them)...he wasn't exactly facing geeked up teams.

IMO, I think Charles is an extremely risky pick in Round 2 and he fits the profile of one of those late season bloomers that kicks ### against subpar competition that isn't preparing properly/mailing it in. I think the Chiefs looked at what happened with the Texans and Steve Slaton last year and determined they didn't want to find themselves in the same position - depending on a smaller back to carry their rushing attack. This isn't to say Charles will ride the pine. But he won't be a bellcow and his value looks more like 4th/5th round to me. And while he'll certainly be situational, Dexter McCluster's presence on the Chiefs could mean another 50 or so carries that Charles won't get. Even if they are working him at WR, I suspect that he'll get 2-3 rushes/game out of some crazy formation.

Lastly, when you consider that the Chiefs first 6 weeks look like this:

Week 1: SD

Week 2: @CLE

Week 3: SF

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: @IND

Week 6: @HOU

...teams that can either dictate frenetic offensive tempo (IND, HOU, SD) and/or defend the run fiercely (SF, HOU, SD), that doesn't spell a formula for success on the ground. Coupled with the fact that the Chiefs defense doesn't seem anymore prepared or ready to stop opposing offenses, and I would draft Jonathan Stewart ahead of Charles.

Prediction: 196 carries, 952 rushing yards 6 TD's, 45 receptions 318 yards 1 TD.

Yeah, i think it's perfectly reasonable to say thomas jones got outplayed by shonn greene. Greene didn't get any significant carries till about week 7 last year and spent the rest of the season getting more yards per carry than jones in every single game they played together except once. He went from being more productive in limited touches during the second half of the season to getting more carries AND being more productive in the playoffs. And after the playoffs were over he took his job. That's pretty much the definition of a rookie outplaying a veteran. While it's true that the jets got rid of thomas jones for reasons including financial considerations and age, they actually paid LT(he of the disastrous season last year who looked all sorts of washed up) more money than what the chiefs are paying thomas jones. So i guess they weren't too impressed by the 1400 yard career season.

I don't think there's anything wrong with downgrading charles because you don't think that he has the talent or because you've only seen half a season, although, it's not a viewpoint i would necessarily agree with. I do think that it's pretty unlikely that jones is going to take the starting job unless charles gets injured or somehow falls extremely out of favor with the coaching staff. Like i said, 200 carries in 16 games is 12.5 carries a game which is kind of ridiculous.

And i think the chiefs have a schedule that is pretty good for the upcoming season since the afc west, nfc west, and afc south aren't exactly defensive powerhouses. As far as McCluster goes, it's true he's going to be more of a situational player, but i don't think he's going to impact the numbers that much unless he explodes. Learning one position as a rookie is hard enough for young players, learning two can lead to a pretty steep learning curve. It's one reason why tight ends aren't usually productive right away because the have the learn the route running and the blocking assignments.

To say that Greene outproduced/outplayed Jones in the playoffs is obvious. To say that he outproduced/outplayed him upon starting to get carries in Week 7 is ludicrous.Stats from Week 7-17 (10 games)

Jones: 235/921/8/6/40/0

Greene: 101/510/2/0/0/0

Nobody is saying that Greene didn't show enough to the Jets to warrant the move they made. But that production above is not being 'outplayed'. Sorry. Jerious Norwood did not 'outplay' Michael Turner in 2008 when his YPC was 5.1 to Burner's 4.5.

But let's look at this from the perspective of workload available.

The Chiefs had 438 rushing attempts in 2009 of which 52 were handled by either the QB or P. That left 386 for RB's and WR's. At 196 carries, I'm actually predicting Charles to receive over 50% of that workload if the pattern holds true.

Let's say my prediction of McCluster getting 40-45 carries holds true - and to your point, this isn't a big workload at all for a rookie even if he is learning multiple positions.. That leaves 145-150 carries left for Jones (and does not take into account the randomness of playcalling that results in bit players like Bobby Wade and Tim Castille getting a carry here and there) for the whole year - basically in the 8-9 range/game.

And you are saying that this prediction is ridiculous? Someone said above, who was Charles competing for carries with last year? The answer was noone. The reason Jones is brought on board is to lighten the load on Charles because in the final 8 games, the Chiefs ran him at a 16 game pace of 368 touches. Is it really unrealistic to expect a (35%) decrease to that pace to 241 touches by bringing in a player of Jones ilk? Michael Turner is said to have broken down because of 382 touches he had in 2008 and he's much more equipped to handle the punishment.

The acquisition of Jones and drafting of McCluster wasn't an indictment of Charles talent. But it was a realization of the type of back and player Charles. IMO having him not take a 250-300 carry pounding is the reason both players were acquired and it shows in the prediction. That said, his body of work was compiled largely against cream puffs so even that might be misleading.

McCluster is better than Charles and once he puts the weight on will be the feature back sooner than later. McCluster is a CJIII type of back -- too bad most people can't see it.

There's a reason most people can't see it.

 

[The Moz]

There's a reason most people can't see it.

yeah it's called being blind( not watching him tear up the SEC at will last year ) and focusing on the fact he "currently " weight 169 -- NFL players can add weight quickly. Again IF he adds 20lbs he has the talent to be a CJIII type threat though most won't buy into it. His talent level far exceeds Charles as a RB - not saying charles sucks or isn't good he is just IMO McCluster is that good.

 

[fightingillini]

With Charles, you need to look forward and not backward to last season. Obviously, KC didn't feel that Charles could shoulder the whole load for 16 games, so they brought in Thomas Jones. I see Charles getting 60% the carries and the vast majority of the receptions, so Charles will still be a solid #2RB, especially in PPR. Charles' value dips due to Jones vulturing TDs near the goalline.200 car, 925 yds rushing, 5 TD50 rec, 425 yds rec, 3 TD.

I really don't see how it's possible that jamaal charles gets 200 carries in sixteen games. Do you really think he's only going to get 12-13 carries a game? the only way that happens is if thomas jones takes the starting spot from him. And jones is 32 years old and just got outplayed by his backup last season.250 carries 1200 yds rushing 40 receptions 300 yards and 9 total touchdowns.

Couple of things.1) I don't expect KC to run the ball that much, since I think that they will be behind a lot in games2) Jones isn't chump change. Sure Jones is 32, but he still has some left in the tank....maybe not as a lead back, but he easily can handle 10-12 carries a game.KC ran the ball 435 times last year. The RBs carried it 377. Their top 2 RBs (Charles and LJ) carried it 322 times. There s nothing that jumps out at me to indicate that KC will run the ball a lot more than last year. 200 carries is about 60% of the 322.The only way Charles gets 250 carrries is if you think T Jones is a clear backup and will only spell Charles during the game.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I really don't see how it's possible that jamaal charles gets 200 carries in sixteen games. Do you really think he's only going to get 12-13 carries a game? the only way that happens is if thomas jones takes the starting spot from him. And jones is 32 years old and just got outplayed by his backup last season.

Really?1460 YFS & 14 TD's. But Shonn Greene has a great playoffs and now he outplayed him last year? C'mon man.

What happened was that Thomas Jones was due to cost $5.8M in 2010. At the same time, Greene showed flashes of being a #1 RB and so the Jets seeing better value and long term potential in the guy they had just drafted, decided to go the youth route.

Instead of demanding Jones, coming off A CAREER YEAR, take a salary cut AND a reduced role in the offense (which probably would not have played well in the locker room), the Jets made a tough call. They used half of the money to sign a veteran in Tomlinson whose production fell more in line with the type of role they could dictate to him.

So getting back to Jones...yes, I think KC sees a guy who finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing in 2009 as having a significant role in the offense that could limit Charles to 12-13 carries/game. That and the fact that KC, as much as they may want to run the ball, may not be in a position to dictate game tempo alot of the time.

There is no debating that Charles was lights out at the end of the season. But his 100 yard games came against:

Oakland: finished 29th in rushing D

Buffalo: finished 30th in rushing D

Cleveland: finished 28th in rushing D

Cincinnati: finished 7th in rushing D

Denver: finished 26th in rushing D

...the Cincy game was his least impressive 100 yard performance 24/102 long of 14 yards. And with 4 of these performance in the final 4 weeks against putrid teams or teams falling apart (i.e; Denver which allowed Jamarcus Russell to come off the bench and beat them)...he wasn't exactly facing geeked up teams.

IMO, I think Charles is an extremely risky pick in Round 2 and he fits the profile of one of those late season bloomers that kicks ### against subpar competition that isn't preparing properly/mailing it in. I think the Chiefs looked at what happened with the Texans and Steve Slaton last year and determined they didn't want to find themselves in the same position - depending on a smaller back to carry their rushing attack. This isn't to say Charles will ride the pine. But he won't be a bellcow and his value looks more like 4th/5th round to me. And while he'll certainly be situational, Dexter McCluster's presence on the Chiefs could mean another 50 or so carries that Charles won't get. Even if they are working him at WR, I suspect that he'll get 2-3 rushes/game out of some crazy formation.

Lastly, when you consider that the Chiefs first 6 weeks look like this:

Week 1: SD

Week 2: @CLE

Week 3: SF

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: @IND

Week 6: @HOU

...teams that can either dictate frenetic offensive tempo (IND, HOU, SD) and/or defend the run fiercely (SF, HOU, SD), that doesn't spell a formula for success on the ground. Coupled with the fact that the Chiefs defense doesn't seem anymore prepared or ready to stop opposing offenses, and I would draft Jonathan Stewart ahead of Charles.

Prediction: 196 carries, 952 rushing yards 6 TD's, 45 receptions 318 yards 1 TD.

Yeah, i think it's perfectly reasonable to say thomas jones got outplayed by shonn greene. Greene didn't get any significant carries till about week 7 last year and spent the rest of the season getting more yards per carry than jones in every single game they played together except once. He went from being more productive in limited touches during the second half of the season to getting more carries AND being more productive in the playoffs. And after the playoffs were over he took his job. That's pretty much the definition of a rookie outplaying a veteran. While it's true that the jets got rid of thomas jones for reasons including financial considerations and age, they actually paid LT(he of the disastrous season last year who looked all sorts of washed up) more money than what the chiefs are paying thomas jones. So i guess they weren't too impressed by the 1400 yard career season.

I don't think there's anything wrong with downgrading charles because you don't think that he has the talent or because you've only seen half a season, although, it's not a viewpoint i would necessarily agree with. I do think that it's pretty unlikely that jones is going to take the starting job unless charles gets injured or somehow falls extremely out of favor with the coaching staff. Like i said, 200 carries in 16 games is 12.5 carries a game which is kind of ridiculous.

And i think the chiefs have a schedule that is pretty good for the upcoming season since the afc west, nfc west, and afc south aren't exactly defensive powerhouses. As far as McCluster goes, it's true he's going to be more of a situational player, but i don't think he's going to impact the numbers that much unless he explodes. Learning one position as a rookie is hard enough for young players, learning two can lead to a pretty steep learning curve. It's one reason why tight ends aren't usually productive right away because the have the learn the route running and the blocking assignments.

To say that Greene outproduced/outplayed Jones in the playoffs is obvious. To say that he outproduced/outplayed him upon starting to get carries in Week 7 is ludicrous.Stats from Week 7-17 (10 games)

Jones: 235/921/8/6/40/0

Greene: 101/510/2/0/0/0

Nobody is saying that Greene didn't show enough to the Jets to warrant the move they made. But that production above is not being 'outplayed'. Sorry. Jerious Norwood did not 'outplay' Michael Turner in 2008 when his YPC was 5.1 to Burner's 4.5.

But let's look at this from the perspective of workload available.

The Chiefs had 438 rushing attempts in 2009 of which 52 were handled by either the QB or P. That left 386 for RB's and WR's. At 196 carries, I'm actually predicting Charles to receive over 50% of that workload if the pattern holds true.

Let's say my prediction of McCluster getting 40-45 carries holds true - and to your point, this isn't a big workload at all for a rookie even if he is learning multiple positions.. That leaves 145-150 carries left for Jones (and does not take into account the randomness of playcalling that results in bit players like Bobby Wade and Tim Castille getting a carry here and there) for the whole year - basically in the 8-9 range/game.

And you are saying that this prediction is ridiculous? Someone said above, who was Charles competing for carries with last year? The answer was noone. The reason Jones is brought on board is to lighten the load on Charles because in the final 8 games, the Chiefs ran him at a 16 game pace of 368 touches. Is it really unrealistic to expect a (35%) decrease to that pace to 241 touches by bringing in a player of Jones ilk? Michael Turner is said to have broken down because of 382 touches he had in 2008 and he's much more equipped to handle the punishment.

The acquisition of Jones and drafting of McCluster wasn't an indictment of Charles talent. But it was a realization of the type of back and player Charles. IMO having him not take a 250-300 carry pounding is the reason both players were acquired and it shows in the prediction. That said, his body of work was compiled largely against cream puffs so even that might be misleading.

At the end of the day, you're claiming that the player who was voted mvp by the team last season and the most talented player on the offense isn't going to get 13 carries a game. You can try to split up the pie however much you want to make it look reasonable from a percentage perspective, but there's no way the chiefs are only giving him a dozen carries a game if he's anywhere near as effective as he was last year.

 

[baconisgood]

I really don't see how it's possible that jamaal charles gets 200 carries in sixteen games. Do you really think he's only going to get 12-13 carries a game? the only way that happens is if thomas jones takes the starting spot from him. And jones is 32 years old and just got outplayed by his backup last season.

Really?1460 YFS & 14 TD's. But Shonn Greene has a great playoffs and now he outplayed him last year? C'mon man.

What happened was that Thomas Jones was due to cost $5.8M in 2010. At the same time, Greene showed flashes of being a #1 RB and so the Jets seeing better value and long term potential in the guy they had just drafted, decided to go the youth route.

Instead of demanding Jones, coming off A CAREER YEAR, take a salary cut AND a reduced role in the offense (which probably would not have played well in the locker room), the Jets made a tough call. They used half of the money to sign a veteran in Tomlinson whose production fell more in line with the type of role they could dictate to him.

So getting back to Jones...yes, I think KC sees a guy who finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing in 2009 as having a significant role in the offense that could limit Charles to 12-13 carries/game. That and the fact that KC, as much as they may want to run the ball, may not be in a position to dictate game tempo alot of the time.

There is no debating that Charles was lights out at the end of the season. But his 100 yard games came against:

Oakland: finished 29th in rushing D

Buffalo: finished 30th in rushing D

Cleveland: finished 28th in rushing D

Cincinnati: finished 7th in rushing D

Denver: finished 26th in rushing D

...the Cincy game was his least impressive 100 yard performance 24/102 long of 14 yards. And with 4 of these performance in the final 4 weeks against putrid teams or teams falling apart (i.e; Denver which allowed Jamarcus Russell to come off the bench and beat them)...he wasn't exactly facing geeked up teams.

IMO, I think Charles is an extremely risky pick in Round 2 and he fits the profile of one of those late season bloomers that kicks ### against subpar competition that isn't preparing properly/mailing it in. I think the Chiefs looked at what happened with the Texans and Steve Slaton last year and determined they didn't want to find themselves in the same position - depending on a smaller back to carry their rushing attack. This isn't to say Charles will ride the pine. But he won't be a bellcow and his value looks more like 4th/5th round to me. And while he'll certainly be situational, Dexter McCluster's presence on the Chiefs could mean another 50 or so carries that Charles won't get. Even if they are working him at WR, I suspect that he'll get 2-3 rushes/game out of some crazy formation.

Lastly, when you consider that the Chiefs first 6 weeks look like this:

Week 1: SD

Week 2: @CLE

Week 3: SF

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: @IND

Week 6: @HOU

...teams that can either dictate frenetic offensive tempo (IND, HOU, SD) and/or defend the run fiercely (SF, HOU, SD), that doesn't spell a formula for success on the ground. Coupled with the fact that the Chiefs defense doesn't seem anymore prepared or ready to stop opposing offenses, and I would draft Jonathan Stewart ahead of Charles.

Prediction: 196 carries, 952 rushing yards 6 TD's, 45 receptions 318 yards 1 TD.

Yeah, i think it's perfectly reasonable to say thomas jones got outplayed by shonn greene. Greene didn't get any significant carries till about week 7 last year and spent the rest of the season getting more yards per carry than jones in every single game they played together except once. He went from being more productive in limited touches during the second half of the season to getting more carries AND being more productive in the playoffs. And after the playoffs were over he took his job. That's pretty much the definition of a rookie outplaying a veteran. While it's true that the jets got rid of thomas jones for reasons including financial considerations and age, they actually paid LT(he of the disastrous season last year who looked all sorts of washed up) more money than what the chiefs are paying thomas jones. So i guess they weren't too impressed by the 1400 yard career season.

I don't think there's anything wrong with downgrading charles because you don't think that he has the talent or because you've only seen half a season, although, it's not a viewpoint i would necessarily agree with. I do think that it's pretty unlikely that jones is going to take the starting job unless charles gets injured or somehow falls extremely out of favor with the coaching staff. Like i said, 200 carries in 16 games is 12.5 carries a game which is kind of ridiculous.

And i think the chiefs have a schedule that is pretty good for the upcoming season since the afc west, nfc west, and afc south aren't exactly defensive powerhouses. As far as McCluster goes, it's true he's going to be more of a situational player, but i don't think he's going to impact the numbers that much unless he explodes. Learning one position as a rookie is hard enough for young players, learning two can lead to a pretty steep learning curve. It's one reason why tight ends aren't usually productive right away because the have the learn the route running and the blocking assignments.

To say that Greene outproduced/outplayed Jones in the playoffs is obvious. To say that he outproduced/outplayed him upon starting to get carries in Week 7 is ludicrous.Stats from Week 7-17 (10 games)

Jones: 235/921/8/6/40/0

Greene: 101/510/2/0/0/0

Nobody is saying that Greene didn't show enough to the Jets to warrant the move they made. But that production above is not being 'outplayed'. Sorry. Jerious Norwood did not 'outplay' Michael Turner in 2008 when his YPC was 5.1 to Burner's 4.5.

But let's look at this from the perspective of workload available.

The Chiefs had 438 rushing attempts in 2009 of which 52 were handled by either the QB or P. That left 386 for RB's and WR's. At 196 carries, I'm actually predicting Charles to receive over 50% of that workload if the pattern holds true.

Let's say my prediction of McCluster getting 40-45 carries holds true - and to your point, this isn't a big workload at all for a rookie even if he is learning multiple positions.. That leaves 145-150 carries left for Jones (and does not take into account the randomness of playcalling that results in bit players like Bobby Wade and Tim Castille getting a carry here and there) for the whole year - basically in the 8-9 range/game.

And you are saying that this prediction is ridiculous? Someone said above, who was Charles competing for carries with last year? The answer was noone. The reason Jones is brought on board is to lighten the load on Charles because in the final 8 games, the Chiefs ran him at a 16 game pace of 368 touches. Is it really unrealistic to expect a (35%) decrease to that pace to 241 touches by bringing in a player of Jones ilk? Michael Turner is said to have broken down because of 382 touches he had in 2008 and he's much more equipped to handle the punishment.

The acquisition of Jones and drafting of McCluster wasn't an indictment of Charles talent. But it was a realization of the type of back and player Charles. IMO having him not take a 250-300 carry pounding is the reason both players were acquired and it shows in the prediction. That said, his body of work was compiled largely against cream puffs so even that might be misleading.

At the end of the day, you're claiming that the player who was voted mvp by the team last season and the most talented player on the offense isn't going to get 13 carries a game. You can try to split up the pie however much you want to make it look reasonable from a percentage perspective, but there's no way the chiefs are only giving him a dozen carries a game if he's anywhere near as effective as he was last year.

Thomas Jones averaged 4.2 y/c last year- how many y/c do you think the downgrade from the Jets oline to the Chiefs oline is worth?

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I really don't see how it's possible that jamaal charles gets 200 carries in sixteen games. Do you really think he's only going to get 12-13 carries a game? the only way that happens is if thomas jones takes the starting spot from him. And jones is 32 years old and just got outplayed by his backup last season.

Really?1460 YFS & 14 TD's. But Shonn Greene has a great playoffs and now he outplayed him last year? C'mon man.

What happened was that Thomas Jones was due to cost $5.8M in 2010. At the same time, Greene showed flashes of being a #1 RB and so the Jets seeing better value and long term potential in the guy they had just drafted, decided to go the youth route.

Instead of demanding Jones, coming off A CAREER YEAR, take a salary cut AND a reduced role in the offense (which probably would not have played well in the locker room), the Jets made a tough call. They used half of the money to sign a veteran in Tomlinson whose production fell more in line with the type of role they could dictate to him.

So getting back to Jones...yes, I think KC sees a guy who finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing in 2009 as having a significant role in the offense that could limit Charles to 12-13 carries/game. That and the fact that KC, as much as they may want to run the ball, may not be in a position to dictate game tempo alot of the time.

There is no debating that Charles was lights out at the end of the season. But his 100 yard games came against:

Oakland: finished 29th in rushing D

Buffalo: finished 30th in rushing D

Cleveland: finished 28th in rushing D

Cincinnati: finished 7th in rushing D

Denver: finished 26th in rushing D

...the Cincy game was his least impressive 100 yard performance 24/102 long of 14 yards. And with 4 of these performance in the final 4 weeks against putrid teams or teams falling apart (i.e; Denver which allowed Jamarcus Russell to come off the bench and beat them)...he wasn't exactly facing geeked up teams.

IMO, I think Charles is an extremely risky pick in Round 2 and he fits the profile of one of those late season bloomers that kicks ### against subpar competition that isn't preparing properly/mailing it in. I think the Chiefs looked at what happened with the Texans and Steve Slaton last year and determined they didn't want to find themselves in the same position - depending on a smaller back to carry their rushing attack. This isn't to say Charles will ride the pine. But he won't be a bellcow and his value looks more like 4th/5th round to me. And while he'll certainly be situational, Dexter McCluster's presence on the Chiefs could mean another 50 or so carries that Charles won't get. Even if they are working him at WR, I suspect that he'll get 2-3 rushes/game out of some crazy formation.

Lastly, when you consider that the Chiefs first 6 weeks look like this:

Week 1: SD

Week 2: @CLE

Week 3: SF

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: @IND

Week 6: @HOU

...teams that can either dictate frenetic offensive tempo (IND, HOU, SD) and/or defend the run fiercely (SF, HOU, SD), that doesn't spell a formula for success on the ground. Coupled with the fact that the Chiefs defense doesn't seem anymore prepared or ready to stop opposing offenses, and I would draft Jonathan Stewart ahead of Charles.

Prediction: 196 carries, 952 rushing yards 6 TD's, 45 receptions 318 yards 1 TD.

Yeah, i think it's perfectly reasonable to say thomas jones got outplayed by shonn greene. Greene didn't get any significant carries till about week 7 last year and spent the rest of the season getting more yards per carry than jones in every single game they played together except once. He went from being more productive in limited touches during the second half of the season to getting more carries AND being more productive in the playoffs. And after the playoffs were over he took his job. That's pretty much the definition of a rookie outplaying a veteran. While it's true that the jets got rid of thomas jones for reasons including financial considerations and age, they actually paid LT(he of the disastrous season last year who looked all sorts of washed up) more money than what the chiefs are paying thomas jones. So i guess they weren't too impressed by the 1400 yard career season.

I don't think there's anything wrong with downgrading charles because you don't think that he has the talent or because you've only seen half a season, although, it's not a viewpoint i would necessarily agree with. I do think that it's pretty unlikely that jones is going to take the starting job unless charles gets injured or somehow falls extremely out of favor with the coaching staff. Like i said, 200 carries in 16 games is 12.5 carries a game which is kind of ridiculous.

And i think the chiefs have a schedule that is pretty good for the upcoming season since the afc west, nfc west, and afc south aren't exactly defensive powerhouses. As far as McCluster goes, it's true he's going to be more of a situational player, but i don't think he's going to impact the numbers that much unless he explodes. Learning one position as a rookie is hard enough for young players, learning two can lead to a pretty steep learning curve. It's one reason why tight ends aren't usually productive right away because the have the learn the route running and the blocking assignments.

To say that Greene outproduced/outplayed Jones in the playoffs is obvious. To say that he outproduced/outplayed him upon starting to get carries in Week 7 is ludicrous.Stats from Week 7-17 (10 games)

Jones: 235/921/8/6/40/0

Greene: 101/510/2/0/0/0

Nobody is saying that Greene didn't show enough to the Jets to warrant the move they made. But that production above is not being 'outplayed'. Sorry. Jerious Norwood did not 'outplay' Michael Turner in 2008 when his YPC was 5.1 to Burner's 4.5.

But let's look at this from the perspective of workload available.

The Chiefs had 438 rushing attempts in 2009 of which 52 were handled by either the QB or P. That left 386 for RB's and WR's. At 196 carries, I'm actually predicting Charles to receive over 50% of that workload if the pattern holds true.

Let's say my prediction of McCluster getting 40-45 carries holds true - and to your point, this isn't a big workload at all for a rookie even if he is learning multiple positions.. That leaves 145-150 carries left for Jones (and does not take into account the randomness of playcalling that results in bit players like Bobby Wade and Tim Castille getting a carry here and there) for the whole year - basically in the 8-9 range/game.

And you are saying that this prediction is ridiculous? Someone said above, who was Charles competing for carries with last year? The answer was noone. The reason Jones is brought on board is to lighten the load on Charles because in the final 8 games, the Chiefs ran him at a 16 game pace of 368 touches. Is it really unrealistic to expect a (35%) decrease to that pace to 241 touches by bringing in a player of Jones ilk? Michael Turner is said to have broken down because of 382 touches he had in 2008 and he's much more equipped to handle the punishment.

The acquisition of Jones and drafting of McCluster wasn't an indictment of Charles talent. But it was a realization of the type of back and player Charles. IMO having him not take a 250-300 carry pounding is the reason both players were acquired and it shows in the prediction. That said, his body of work was compiled largely against cream puffs so even that might be misleading.

McCluster is better than Charles and once he puts the weight on will be the feature back sooner than later. McCluster is a CJIII type of back -- too bad most people can't see it.

Dude, you're giving a lot of ifs in this thread. You've said earlier that "if he gains 20 pounds and keeps his agility and speed"..."If he takes the starting job". Alot of what you say may be true eventualy, but you are asking a lot of a young kid who doesn't have a lot of experience in college, is a rookie, and is learning multiple positions at the NFL level. With that said, I don't think it hurts Charles as much as you say this year.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I really don't see how it's possible that jamaal charles gets 200 carries in sixteen games. Do you really think he's only going to get 12-13 carries a game? the only way that happens is if thomas jones takes the starting spot from him. And jones is 32 years old and just got outplayed by his backup last season.

Really?1460 YFS & 14 TD's. But Shonn Greene has a great playoffs and now he outplayed him last year? C'mon man.

What happened was that Thomas Jones was due to cost $5.8M in 2010. At the same time, Greene showed flashes of being a #1 RB and so the Jets seeing better value and long term potential in the guy they had just drafted, decided to go the youth route.

Instead of demanding Jones, coming off A CAREER YEAR, take a salary cut AND a reduced role in the offense (which probably would not have played well in the locker room), the Jets made a tough call. They used half of the money to sign a veteran in Tomlinson whose production fell more in line with the type of role they could dictate to him.

So getting back to Jones...yes, I think KC sees a guy who finished 3rd in the NFL in rushing in 2009 as having a significant role in the offense that could limit Charles to 12-13 carries/game. That and the fact that KC, as much as they may want to run the ball, may not be in a position to dictate game tempo alot of the time.

There is no debating that Charles was lights out at the end of the season. But his 100 yard games came against:

Oakland: finished 29th in rushing D

Buffalo: finished 30th in rushing D

Cleveland: finished 28th in rushing D

Cincinnati: finished 7th in rushing D

Denver: finished 26th in rushing D

...the Cincy game was his least impressive 100 yard performance 24/102 long of 14 yards. And with 4 of these performance in the final 4 weeks against putrid teams or teams falling apart (i.e; Denver which allowed Jamarcus Russell to come off the bench and beat them)...he wasn't exactly facing geeked up teams.

IMO, I think Charles is an extremely risky pick in Round 2 and he fits the profile of one of those late season bloomers that kicks ### against subpar competition that isn't preparing properly/mailing it in. I think the Chiefs looked at what happened with the Texans and Steve Slaton last year and determined they didn't want to find themselves in the same position - depending on a smaller back to carry their rushing attack. This isn't to say Charles will ride the pine. But he won't be a bellcow and his value looks more like 4th/5th round to me. And while he'll certainly be situational, Dexter McCluster's presence on the Chiefs could mean another 50 or so carries that Charles won't get. Even if they are working him at WR, I suspect that he'll get 2-3 rushes/game out of some crazy formation.

Lastly, when you consider that the Chiefs first 6 weeks look like this:

Week 1: SD

Week 2: @CLE

Week 3: SF

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: @IND

Week 6: @HOU

...teams that can either dictate frenetic offensive tempo (IND, HOU, SD) and/or defend the run fiercely (SF, HOU, SD), that doesn't spell a formula for success on the ground. Coupled with the fact that the Chiefs defense doesn't seem anymore prepared or ready to stop opposing offenses, and I would draft Jonathan Stewart ahead of Charles.

Prediction: 196 carries, 952 rushing yards 6 TD's, 45 receptions 318 yards 1 TD.

Yeah, i think it's perfectly reasonable to say thomas jones got outplayed by shonn greene. Greene didn't get any significant carries till about week 7 last year and spent the rest of the season getting more yards per carry than jones in every single game they played together except once. He went from being more productive in limited touches during the second half of the season to getting more carries AND being more productive in the playoffs. And after the playoffs were over he took his job. That's pretty much the definition of a rookie outplaying a veteran. While it's true that the jets got rid of thomas jones for reasons including financial considerations and age, they actually paid LT(he of the disastrous season last year who looked all sorts of washed up) more money than what the chiefs are paying thomas jones. So i guess they weren't too impressed by the 1400 yard career season.

I don't think there's anything wrong with downgrading charles because you don't think that he has the talent or because you've only seen half a season, although, it's not a viewpoint i would necessarily agree with. I do think that it's pretty unlikely that jones is going to take the starting job unless charles gets injured or somehow falls extremely out of favor with the coaching staff. Like i said, 200 carries in 16 games is 12.5 carries a game which is kind of ridiculous.

And i think the chiefs have a schedule that is pretty good for the upcoming season since the afc west, nfc west, and afc south aren't exactly defensive powerhouses. As far as McCluster goes, it's true he's going to be more of a situational player, but i don't think he's going to impact the numbers that much unless he explodes. Learning one position as a rookie is hard enough for young players, learning two can lead to a pretty steep learning curve. It's one reason why tight ends aren't usually productive right away because the have the learn the route running and the blocking assignments.

To say that Greene outproduced/outplayed Jones in the playoffs is obvious. To say that he outproduced/outplayed him upon starting to get carries in Week 7 is ludicrous.Stats from Week 7-17 (10 games)

Jones: 235/921/8/6/40/0

Greene: 101/510/2/0/0/0

Nobody is saying that Greene didn't show enough to the Jets to warrant the move they made. But that production above is not being 'outplayed'. Sorry. Jerious Norwood did not 'outplay' Michael Turner in 2008 when his YPC was 5.1 to Burner's 4.5.

But let's look at this from the perspective of workload available.

The Chiefs had 438 rushing attempts in 2009 of which 52 were handled by either the QB or P. That left 386 for RB's and WR's. At 196 carries, I'm actually predicting Charles to receive over 50% of that workload if the pattern holds true.

Let's say my prediction of McCluster getting 40-45 carries holds true - and to your point, this isn't a big workload at all for a rookie even if he is learning multiple positions.. That leaves 145-150 carries left for Jones (and does not take into account the randomness of playcalling that results in bit players like Bobby Wade and Tim Castille getting a carry here and there) for the whole year - basically in the 8-9 range/game.

And you are saying that this prediction is ridiculous? Someone said above, who was Charles competing for carries with last year? The answer was noone. The reason Jones is brought on board is to lighten the load on Charles because in the final 8 games, the Chiefs ran him at a 16 game pace of 368 touches. Is it really unrealistic to expect a (35%) decrease to that pace to 241 touches by bringing in a player of Jones ilk? Michael Turner is said to have broken down because of 382 touches he had in 2008 and he's much more equipped to handle the punishment.

The acquisition of Jones and drafting of McCluster wasn't an indictment of Charles talent. But it was a realization of the type of back and player Charles. IMO having him not take a 250-300 carry pounding is the reason both players were acquired and it shows in the prediction. That said, his body of work was compiled largely against cream puffs so even that might be misleading.

At the end of the day, you're claiming that the player who was voted mvp by the team last season and the most talented player on the offense isn't going to get 13 carries a game. You can try to split up the pie however much you want to make it look reasonable from a percentage perspective, but there's no way the chiefs are only giving him a dozen carries a game if he's anywhere near as effective as he was last year.

MVP on a team good enough to win 6 games these last two seasons! What competition did he have? Brandon Flowers and that's about it.Thomas Jones was team MVP for the Jets in 2008 that won two more games in 1 season than the Chiefs have in two, and probably finished 2nd in 2009 voting behind the ridiculous Darrelle Revis given that he outproduced himself from the previous year. And he won the Dennis Byrd Award the last two years as the Jets most inspirational player on teams that won 17 games and made a Conference Championship Game appearance.

A guy like that takes the field in a significant role too. Only when he proves he can't produce anymore will he get stashed. Keep in mind, I'm predicting a scant 145-150 carries for Jones too.

 

[Instinctive]

All fo the McCluster crap needs to stop. The one guy who keeps posting it........he was drafted as a WIDE RECEIVER. Not a RB who will go out wide sometimes, but an actual WIDE RECEIVER.

He may get 3 carries a game. Tops. Unless Charles and Jones both get hurt, or one gets hurt (then all bets are off there). He's a RECEIVER. Not a back. And he was the only weapon on his team in college period. For all we know, he won't even be as good as Peter Warrick in the NFL...who was an amazing collegiate athlete.

 

[Chimp Magnet]

All fo the McCluster crap needs to stop. The one guy who keeps posting it........he was drafted as a WIDE RECEIVER. Not a RB who will go out wide sometimes, but an actual WIDE RECEIVER.He may get 3 carries a game. Tops. Unless Charles and Jones both get hurt, or one gets hurt (then all bets are off there). He's a RECEIVER. Not a back. And he was the only weapon on his team in college period. For all we know, he won't even be as good as Peter Warrick in the NFL...who was an amazing collegiate athlete.

 

[thecardiackid]

All fo the McCluster crap needs to stop. The one guy who keeps posting it........he was drafted as a WIDE RECEIVER. Not a RB who will go out wide sometimes, but an actual WIDE RECEIVER.He may get 3 carries a game. Tops. Unless Charles and Jones both get hurt, or one gets hurt (then all bets are off there). He's a RECEIVER. Not a back. And he was the only weapon on his team in college period. For all we know, he won't even be as good as Peter Warrick in the NFL...who was an amazing collegiate athlete.

Seriously Moz. We get you evidently have a chubby for Dex. Maybe you should start your very own "Dex bandwagon - all aboard" thread. IMO he'll be lucky to get close to D Sproles production wise. Or, maybe Pioli (sp) - envisions him in a wes welker type of role.Now back to your regularly scheduled (JC) programming (please).240/1125/6 and 55/350/2

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

let's not forget that Charles had serious enough shoulder surgery in January that he was still not back on the field in May. This very well could explain why the Chiefs signed Thomas Jones, because they have first-hand proof that Charles won't hold up as a full-time feature back.

Sorry, but this makes me nuts. Using your logic there has never been a RB in the history of the NFL that could 'hold up as a full-time feature back.'They ALL (all of them, every single one) eventually get hurt. Charles missed no time, and there's no reason for the Chiefs to hurry him back. Jones is an obvious reflection on Kolby Smith and whatever other crumbs are floating around in the milk after Charles is done with his wonking huge piece of the KC offense pie. As his coaches, teammates and GM have all said in so many words.

 

[wildbill]

There's a reason most people can't see it.yeah it's called being blind( not watching him tear up the SEC at will last year ) and focusing on the fact he "currently " weight 169 -- NFL players can add weight quickly. Again IF he adds 20lbs he has the talent to be a CJIII type threat though most won't buy into it. His talent level far exceeds Charles as a RB - not saying charles sucks or isn't good he is just IMO McCluster is that good.

Who are some examples of players who came into the league at ~170 then beefed up to ~190?

 

[SSOG]

With Charles, you need to look forward and not backward to last season. Obviously, KC didn't feel that Charles could shoulder the whole load for 16 games, so they brought in Thomas Jones. I see Charles getting 60% the carries and the vast majority of the receptions, so Charles will still be a solid #2RB, especially in PPR. Charles' value dips due to Jones vulturing TDs near the goalline.200 car, 925 yds rushing, 5 TD50 rec, 425 yds rec, 3 TD.

It's possible that the Chiefs brought in Jones because they don't think Charles can carry the load. It's also possible that the Chiefs brought in Jones because their backup RB was Dantrell Freaking Savage. I mean, Minnesota drafted Toby Gerhart- does that mean they think ADP can't handle a full load, or is that just an indication that they had no NFL-caliber backup RB?At the end of the day, New York let Thomas Jones walk away and then signed LaDainian Tomlinson for even more than Thomas Jones wound up signing for. To me, that indicates that New York thought Tomlinson had more left in the tank than Jones, since they replaced Jones with Tomlinson at a cost greater than what Jones wound up costing. Which is a scary thought, because Tomlinson looked like he had very, very little left in the tank last season.As someone pointed out... Jones averaged 4.2 ypc behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. What do you think he's going to average on Kansas City?

Dex is the best RB on KC he just needs to add weight -- the man tore up SEC defenses last year and was basically unstoppable - IMO he was better than Ingram when he got his chance as the feature back. He is not Percy Harvin -- If Dex can add 20 Lbs and keep his movement and explosiveness he might become one of the best backs in the league

Are you perhaps related to Mr. McCluster? When a team drafts you and then immediately releases a statement that they're going to use you at WR, that's generally a pretty good indication that you will never become one of the best RBs in the NFL. McCluster should *HOPE* he's Percy Harvin- an undersized college RB-turned-explosive NFL weapon and ORoY... but not a threat to steal carries from the actual RBs.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

[iMO, I think Charles is an extremely risky pick in Round 2 and he fits the profile of one of those late season bloomers that kicks ### against subpar competition that isn't preparing properly/mailing it in. I think the Chiefs looked at what happened with the Texans and Steve Slaton last year and determined they didn't want to find themselves in the same position - depending on a smaller back to carry their rushing attack. This isn't to say Charles will ride the pine. But he won't be a bellcow and his value looks more like 4th/5th round to me. And while he'll certainly be situational, Dexter McCluster's presence on the Chiefs could mean another 50 or so carries that Charles won't get. Even if they are working him at WR, I suspect that he'll get 2-3 rushes/game out of some crazy formation.

Yeah, I agree with you on all your points. Great job. Charles is a late season Kevin Barlow. He will seriously disappoint owners that take him near his ADP. Shoulder surgery is a red flag. There are a number of other RB's I'd take a flyer on with Charles on the board.

 

[redBourne]

There's a reason most people can't see it.

yeah it's called being blind( not watching him tear up the SEC at will last year ) and focusing on the fact he "currently " weight 169 -- NFL players can add weight quickly. Again IF he adds 20lbs he has the talent to be a CJIII type threat though most won't buy into it. His talent level far exceeds Charles as a RB - not saying charles sucks or isn't good he is just IMO McCluster is that good.

Who are some examples of players who came into the league at ~170 then beefed up to ~190?

I'd like to know this as well. Beefing up 20 lbs can be done by anyone, not just an NFL player. But we've all seen the effects of when a smaller, quick-strike player beefs up to withstand the load of starting gig. Not only does it often, not always slow him down, but I don't feel like the injury bug is any less/more prevalent. And we're not talking about going from 210 to 230, but from 170 to 190, a greater % of change for the individual.

FIRST POST

 

[mjr]

The shoulder surgery argument:

It's logical to think a back who had surgery on his shoulder might struggle to break through a defensive line, but it's just as logical to realize that sometimes a surgery is performed specifically to correct problems that have been holding a player back. Frank Gore had off-season surgery on BOTH of his shoulders early in '06 to correct dislocation problems. He then went on to pound out 1695 yards and 8 TDs on the ground that year while hauling in 61 receptions for 485 yards and a score.



The presence of Thomas Jones/McCluster:

Two reasons why this doesn't concern me at all. First, bellcow-backs are a rare exception rather than the rule in the league these days. If you don't have a top 5 or 6 draft pick, you're probably not going to have one on your fantasy team. You shouldn't be using this argument to pass up on any back near the end of the first and beyond.

Secondly, two healthy, effective backs can score more TDs than one. So while it's true Jones might get more goal line carries, that doesn't mean Charles' TD totals absolutely must decline as a result. Most people who resort to this reasoning were the same type to predict Chris Johnson would get maybe 4 or 5 TDs in 08. Yet he ran in 9 TDs while Lendale pounded in 15.

The injury prone argument:

A lot of people who chime in with this one didn't seem to be paying much attention to him last year. Haley called out Charles in front of the cameras last season after he got hurt a few times, saying he wouldn't rest Charles because he wanted him to prove he could play bruised and beaten. Charles not only continued to play but he also played very well, proving at least to Haley that he wasn't fragile.

The good stat, bad run D argument:

Now that some realize Charles played hurt in several games last year, maybe those lofty stats he put up on soft defenses could be seen in a different light. I cant tell you how many times I've licked my chops waiting for a completely healthy CJ3 or Gore to put up a monster game against a soft D...only to get mediocre numbers. You can knock on Charles all you want, but he did what a good back is supposed to do in those situations and he did it while he was less than 100%. Besides, who would draft a back who couldn't pat his stats on soft run Ds anyway? As for the better run D's he went up against, he struggled, of course. That's why they call them solid run D's. But Charles is dynamic enough to find other ways to be effective in these tougher situations. Those were the games he ran a punt return all the way to the house or caught those balls in the end zone. This dude finds a way.

 

[Todem]

Everyone will overdraft Shonne Greene and stay away from from Jamal Charles.....yet in the end I am going on record and saying in PPR scoring Charles will smoke Greene this year.

This kid has the goods. He has world class speed....WORLD CLASS. Speed kills in the NFL if you know how to use it. Charles proved (and stop with who he played against that get's so over rated and over analyzed it's really absurd) he can be a feature back. When he was drafted it was for the sole purpose of replacing Larry Johnson at some point. This kid can ball and he will have every opportunity to be the lead dog. I am a huge Thomas Jones fan...he has always been a hard worker and really has given me plenty to cheer for as a great RB3 over the last several years. But let's face the facts. He is coming off a 347 carry season....he clearly broke down last year and was very uneffective in the later stages of the season and post season. Do I think he get's some work...of course. he will get it when Charles needs a breather from tearing up defenses. Charles is a 3 down weapon and can score from anywhere on the field. He is the Chiefs very best playmaker bar none. Dexter McCluster is being brought in to be a Percy Harvin. A guy they can line up all over the field and ultimatly become a top notch slot WR ala Wes Welker. McCluster has mad skills no doubt. he was not drafted to be a feature RB. No way.

Charles is one of the guys if you have the balls to grab early...will win a league for you. When you can pair him up with another stud.....forget it. He IMO will perfrom as an RB1 and can be drafted as an RB2.

Very bullish on Charles....I have the same bullishness on him like I did when Chris Johnson came into the league. The difference is Charles needed to add some stregnth and needed a real NFL off-season to get into prime NFL shape. The kid was a track star at Texas and he never worked out year round for football.

Scary good this guy will be this season.

 

[greenheads]

I have to decide whether to keep Jcharles or Rgrant this year. At a cost of rd 7 for grant and 8 for charles.

I am leaning Grant, and its ppr

Sure the potential and updside are incredible for charles but the negatives are too great for me. only did it for half a year and had off season surgery, his new "competition" does figure in as well.

To me there's more chance Charles is the next kbarlow or william green than the next cris johnson. Not to compare green's and barlow's skill sets to charles just they had a great breakout season where they did not start the full year and the next season hype was similar and they busted.

 

[Todem]

I have to decide wheter to keep Jcharles or Rgrant this year. At a cost of rd 7 for grant and 8 for charles. I am leaning Grant, and its pprSure the potential and updside are incredible for charles but the negatives are too great for me. only did it for half a year and and had off season surgery, his new "competition" doesn't bother me that much. To me there's more chance Charles is the next kbarlow or william green that the next cris johnson. Not to compare green's and barlow's skill sets to charles just they had a great breakout season where they did not start the full year and the next season hype was similar and they busted.

Do you want to win or come in 4th?Keep Charles.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I'm not buying the KC offense or defense. Running the ball is a luxury afforded by a solid D and/or a productive offense - either well balanced or just strong at the line. This doesn't sound like KC to me.

Jamaal Charles, meet Earth.

16 g x 12 carries = 192 x 4.2 ypc = 806 yards 5 TD, 40 catches x 8 ypr = 320 yds 1 TD

And no, I don't buy that T.Jones was brought in to be the starter. He'll get some carries, some catches (he's a very capable receiver). I don't expect there to be enough carries for Charles to be able to keep up last year's pace. 20/gm is a lot. On a bad team with a legitimate backup spelling you, that's just not going to happen again. Have a look and tell me if you see room for a guy with 250+ carries.

Well, that link you provided inexplicably doesn't account for Larry Johnson's carries last season. And nobody's projecting 20 carries a game. I don't think anybody in this thread has said he's getting 320 carries next season.

 

[Thomsen]

Charles averaged 20 carries a game through the last 8 games last season. He didn't show signs of wearing down, on the contrary he seemed better and better. Haley called him out, and he answered the call. Jones is still a good player, but that is because he brings leadership, toughness and experience. Jones won't be expected to produce 5 yards per carry behind that line, they brought him in for other reasons. When the games get out of hand, it will be Charles who is getting the ball. He is the playmaker, the one that makes things happen as a receiver out of the backfield and as a tailback.

Charles is a differencemaker, and watching him play it's difficult for me too see, why people think he will be worse than last year? McCluster won't impact his carries, if anything Charles will benefit from his presence underneath.

His schedule is very nice, with games against the browns, bills, rams, jaguars, broncosx2, seahawks, raidersx2.

And please stop talking about Charles only put up great numbers against bad teams. He put up game winning numbers, and I'll take those any day. Look at AP for instance, he didn't destroy all of the bad teams he faced, there were games where he sucked. If a players prodcuces like Charles did against bad teams, you applaud that instead of holding it against them.

255 carries, 1224 yards, 60 rec, 430 yards. 8 TDs. Absolute stud in PPR.