Thanks man, I sure hope so!Love your backs man. By week 4.....you will be the envy of the league.
They have played the NYJ and the PIT D.This guy stinks.
Somehow Cincy continue to try to get him involved. Cincy would be a much better team if they just moved away from Hill and made Gio the guy there. Hill looks like a back up NFL rb. He is slow to the holes, has no burst and can't make a guy miss. He had a good run 2 years as a rookie in the second half, but he is looking more like a Trent Richardson clone.
Gio wouldn't be able to hold up as the guy. His role is perfect for him. Hill is a great buy low.This guy stinks.
Somehow Cincy continue to try to get him involved. Cincy would be a much better team if they just moved away from Hill and made Gio the guy there. Hill looks like a back up NFL rb. He is slow to the holes, has no burst and can't make a guy miss. He had a good run 2 years as a rookie in the second half, but he is looking more like a Trent Richardson clone.
All rb's get hurt. Big rb's, small rb's, medium sized rb's. Injuries are most times just bad luck.Gio wouldn't be able to hold up as the guy. His role is perfect for him. Hill is a great buy low.
Hill finished just outside the top 15 RBs in about five of my leagues last year. He started slow last year, too.Buy low?
He was awful last year but was fortunate enough to get some td's to make his year look better than it was. He really looks bad going on 2 years in a row.
Started slow last year? Did he every get better? I am talking about actual NFL ability vs fantasy and even then you are being generous. I pointed out the TD's because he would have had even more crappy games than he had last year due to punching in some td's which saved some weeks. His year end stats ended up looking better than they were in fantasy due to those TD's. When he was scoring some of those td's I am assuming he was on peoples benches because he was putting up so many clunkers that people stopped playing him.Hill finished just outside the top 15 RBs in about five of my leagues last year. He started slow last year, too.
Hill leads the NFL in rushing TDs since his 2014 rookie season (despite only starting half of his rookie campaign). There is a possibility in his third straight season he could be "fortunate enough to get some td's to make his year look better than it was", whatever that means. CIN moves the ball well, gets in the red zone often and feeds him a lot when they get there. Since two games in 2016 isn't really a "year", he really hasn't looked bad for going on two years in a row. He finished near top 15 last year, and has played two games this year. Not every team can have a half dozen #1 RBs on their roster (in a 14 team league like most of mine).
How many other skill position players (RB, WR & TE) that lead their respective positions in combined TDs the past two seasons (2014 & 2015) were "awful"?
Sankey has been "awful". I wouldn't use that to describe a RB with a near top 15 finish in 2015 who has only played two games in 2016. For perspective, Hill is doing a little better than Devonta Freeman through his first two games.
1) Everybody would do worse if they had less TDs than more TDs and would do better if they had more TDs than less TDs. Just pointing out that he leads the NFL in rushing TDs since his rookie 2014 season, so it could be misleading to state he wouldn't have done as good if he hadn't done as good when he did do as good - his only two seasons in a row. TDs count in real football as well as fantasy football (and you are talking about both real and fantasy football here). He finished near 15th among RBs and didn't start that well, so yes, evidently he got better. If RBs score a lot consistently and every week, they would be #1 RBs. There aren't dozens of #1 RBs that score every week, so inevitably you have to roster and in some cases start RBs that don't score like a #1 RB every week.Carter_Can_Fly said:Started slow last year? Did he every get better? I am talking about actual NFL ability vs fantasy and even then you are being generous. I pointed out the TD's because he would have had even more crappy games than he had last year due to punching in some td's which saved some weeks. His year end stats ended up looking better than they were in fantasy due to those TD's. When he was scoring some of those td's I am assuming he was on peoples benches because he was putting up so many clunkers that people stopped playing him.
He had 223 carries last year and finished with a minuscule 794 yards, which was good enough for 18th in total rushing yards. There was 8 rbs that had more yards than him with less carries. He also was not able to create big plays and or catch passes. It could be argued he was one of the bottom 5 starting rbs in the NFL last year.
I know a lot of the footballguys staff were drooling over Hill and that rookie year. He is the second best RB on his team and Hill is again off to a slow/normal start? Regardless Cincy looks much better with Gio as the guy or at least as the guy who should garner more touches.
Richardson only had 3 TDs his second season, which might have been an EWS (early warning system). Jacobs only had 522 rushing yards in his first two seasons so not strictly comparable (did either player lead the NFL in rushing TDs their first two seasons COMBINED, which was the mark I was alluding to?). Morris also had 28 TDs and about 4,000 yards combined in his first THREE seasons. He had a good run. Not too many RBs average about 1,300 yards and 10+ TDs rushing for 5-10 years in a row. I'm not sure he couldn't have started for some other teams last year, the RB that replaced him hasn't exactly set the league on fire so maybe Gruden made a mistake (and he isn't going to start over Elliot in DAL, one of the best RB prospects in the past decade with Peterson and Gurley), but that doesn't mean he is "awful" or "stinks", the hyperbolic descriptive terms used above. I'm admittedly not an expert on Morris, don't follow him that closely, can't say if his play declined or slipped appreciably and thus leading to his demotion.Guys that put up stats like Hill did all of last year and through 2 games this year get phased out of offenses pretty quickly if that trend continues.
You have highlighted he has scored td's which is nice and all and which may take a certain skill set to be elite at but you can find other players that started out scoring td's and became nothing more than back ups and or just became guys. Trent Richardson had 11 as a rookie, Brandon Jacobs had 16 his first 2 years, Alfred Morris had 20 through his first 2 years and it looks as though Hill is trending towards those career paths at this stage in time.
Outside of Hill scoring TD's can you explain what Hill has done through the last 18 games that should have anyone excited about him moving forward?
I may be wrong and he may starting playing better but as of right now he really does not look very good.
So it happened once (other than the year Bernard started the year as the starter). That's not a pattern.How many RBs score a lot consistently every week, that aren't #1 RBs? There aren't 30-40 of those kind of RBs. He was more consistent once he started in 2014 than last year. Maybe he will never regain that form, but imo too early to say that.
Referencing just one representative league I'm in, in the first six games in 2015, Bernard scored 10+ points every game:
14.8, 18.9, 11.3, 12.2, 15.1 & 14.3 (actually a bit less, as several leagues give .5 PPR for RB, but I treated as PPR)
In the last 10 game in 2015, Bernard DIDN'T score 10+ in eight games:
5.4, 9.6, 12.9, 24.6, 8.7, 4.5, 9.7, 9.1, 8.3 & 5.8
Not exactly an ironclad historical law, but in their two seasons together, Bernard has done better in the first half and falls off in the second half (so he seems to have some inconsistency issues of his own), Hill has done worse in the first half and better in the second half.
Part of that in the first half of 2014 was no doubt Bernard starting, and in the second half missing three games. But the pattern was to some extent replicated last year, too (when Hill was the starter, and Bernard wasn't hurt to my knowledge).
The genius of Marvin LewisIn 2014 the Bengals were running power O because of injuries to basically every receiver and they were still being careful with Dalton. That is when Hill went off. They are a shotgun team now that trusts Dalton to win the games for them. It's just a different team.
In some ways 2016 does resemble 2014.The genius of Marvin Lewis
Repeating your mantra 3 times? Fitting.Hill leads the league in TDs since 2014. a 2 year sample size, just like I gave for Asiata, from (2013-2014, 2 years of use when he had a chance to play)
Asiata has three or less rushing TDs in three of his four seasons. (not the ones where he had usage. He had only 3 carries in 2012, 29 in 2015 and 10 in 2016. When he had usage in 2013-2014 he had 193 carries and 12 TDs. SO saying he has 3 or less rushing TDs in 3 of his 4 seasons is a bit disingenuous at worst, and ignorant at best to throw that statistic out there.)
Also has under 900 CAREER rushing yards in four plus seasons. He has only 250 carries and has 12 TDs! 1 TD per 20.8 carries. Hill has a rate of 1 per 22 so Asiata actually beats him on a per rush basis in TD production which u love to tout. He also has 70 recs to Hills 45, 50% more catches in half the opportunity.
Hill had nearly that much in 2015 in an off year, and more than that in the last nine games of 2014 alone (I forgot, that was pure luck ).
But, yeah, other than those minor details, they are uncannily alike.
But, yeah, other than those minor details, they are uncannily alike.
But, yeah, other than those minor details, they are uncannily alike.
Just a call out to your repetition.Repeating your mantra 3 times? Fitting.
We won't see 54 but trust me when I say that Dalton is miles better now than he was in 2014. The team believes that and turned him lose last year. They're not going back to being a running team unless Dalton or Green goes down.Bob Magaw said:In some ways 2016 does resemble 2014.
No Lewis or Sanu and Eifert is injured. They do have depleted receiving weapons, but Green is healthy and Boyd looks like a keeper.
And Dalton is in a different place. He set a career high in attempts Sunday (54?), we won't see that every week.
Agree, don't expect 54 attempts regularly, and that is sort of what I meant by Dalton has a different standing relative to two years ago. My only question is how balanced they will be or not. I think they would probably LIKE to get their running game going, because they would be more dangerous and better able to keep defenses off balance if they are a dual threat. The SF teams with Montana/Young, Craig/Waters/Rathman, Rice/Taylor/TO and Jones were nearly impossible to defend because no matter what defenses did they had an answer (though nearly everybody remembers them as a predominantly passing team, they had 2,000 yards rushing one season). The passing game won't always click (see just about every playoff loss), there will be games they need to run, so it would make sense to reconstitute it and make it a more consistent and credible threat. They will still throw more than run, but if their OVERALL offensive balance and efficiency improves their could be room for Dalton, Green, Eifert and Hill/Bernard to succeed.We won't see 54 but trust me when I say that Dalton is miles better now than he was in 2014. The team believes that and turned him lose last year. They're not going back to being a running team unless Dalton or Green goes down.
The point of my using Matt Asiata is to highlight (1) the small sample size you are using for Hill; (2) the high variance/luckiness factor of using TDs as the crux of your pro-Hill argument. Of course Asiata isn't special. I have pointed that out numerous times in this thread. However, he had a high TD conversion rate for a small sample size, just like Hill which you point to repeatedly as what makes Hill special.Just a call out to your repetition.
"Same TD rate as Hill."
"He has the same TD rate as the stud Hill"
"Just remember than any argument you make with Hill can also be made for Matt Asiata (when it comes to TDs)..."
* Anyway, we'll see how well chosen a comparison Asiata ends up being.
1) I don't get extra points for doing best among back up RB TDs, or for usage ratio success.
2) It could be a fallacy to assume because he had a good conversion rate on fewer carries, we should automatically assume he would have with a larger sample. By that rationale, if a backup gets a TD on their first carry, you could just extrapolate they would get 300 TDs from 300 carries, small sample success doesn't NECESSARILY translate to identical success with larger samples which you seem to be unwittingly implying (that *ASSUMPTION* to quote you - is a bit disingenuous at worst, and ignorant at best) If a WR gets a reception on his first attempt of the season, all you have to do is throw to him 200 times and you are guaranteed to get 200 receptions. Just make a simple linear extrapolation from the past. It's that easy!
3) See the above.
* To expand on the fallacy of point 2 above, if Asiata had only one carry in every season and scored a TD each time, that would be a perfect conversion percentage. So that would make him more valuable than Adrian Peterson, and you should easily be able to acquire him in a trade on that basis. Makes sense by your rationale?
In best ball leagues, sure. But when he gets 15 for 52 against cleveland then 7 for 15 against houston, will you start him against arizona for his 13 for 45 and 2 touchdowns?The Bengals are going to score a lot more than the Vikings though. Seems like that should be a factor if we're discussing TD prone RBs.
The goal-line back in a very good offense is "fortunate" when he scores TDs? I don't own Hill anywhere but it's so funny to see the bias between Hill and Gio owners rear its head.Buy low?
He was awful last year but was fortunate enough to get some td's to make his year look better than it was. He really looks bad going on 2 years in a row.
He's only had 20 carries on the season against two tough run defenses - how would he have great stats? What has Gio done running the ball? The answer is "less".Guys that put up stats like Hill did all of last year and through 2 games this year get phased out of offenses pretty quickly if that trend continues.
Finishing rb18 in 16 games doesn't make you startable. It means you stayed healthy long enough to accumulate stats in spite of awful play.The RB position is terrible. 45 rushing yards and a good chance for a TD puts you in the RB2 discussion which is where he went. All those numbers you posted proving Hill wasnt very good. I agree and yet he finished 18th in rushing yards. So your list of options that are likely to get more than 45 + good chance of TD is short.
RB has nearly become TE in leagues you play multiple RBs so yes he's startable.
So you're saying that even though the entire position is producing less, he still had 17 other guys get more yards. Sounds like exactly the kind of player to avoid.cheese said:He didn't finish RB18. Really not even close to that. I said he finished 18th in yards just to make the point that RBs don't pile up rushing yards like they used to.
I'm fine with avoiding him. My post made no sense so I'm deleting it lol.So you're saying that even though the entire position is producing less, he still had 17 other guys get more yards. Sounds like exactly the kind of player to avoid.
I'm reasonably pleased with his production the first two games. Thought last week would be a little better (had a goal-line shot that didn't work out). But overall decent enough. On my bench this week in favor of Tevin Coleman. I was impressed by how he looked in the preseason and like you I'm hoping for more of a commitment to the run moving forward. I'll re-assess things following this week's game and go from there. The team I have him on is very strong so I'm in a good position where he's more of an additional asset and not someone I need to rely on right now. I can afford to be patient with him.Drafted Hill with the understanding that his season did not begin until week 4 for me. After that fingers crossed. Otherwise feels like deja vu.
I did, with Rawls and Charles on my bench. Needless to say, I am quite pleased.Did you start him this week?
That's about the perfect role for him. High upside bench depth for an occasional spot start until/unless gio misses time.I did, with Rawls and Charles on my bench. Needless to say, I am quite pleased.
Hill had a down year in 2015 (just like it looks Freeman may in 2016),