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I agree his value says he should be taken there I just don't think I got the stones to pull that trigger. If he performs like a avg TE then you blew ya 1st rd pick!
If the RB, QB, WR, or TE that you took top 5 performs like an average RB, QB, WR, or TE, then you blew ya 1st rd pick. Nothing is a lock. Graham has been a consistent stud the past few years and has an elite QB chucking the rock a ton. Definitely worth considering, although TE seems to be getting deeper each year.
Why would it take balls? Its as safest pick as there probably is.
This along with the fact that J. Thomas is going in the 3rd as well. There is no way, none what so ever, that I will even consider taking Graham in the 1st round knowing that.
Using today's ADP. When drafts roll around if Gronk is actually looking like a go week 1 he isn't going to be available in the 3rd round.
Yeah, once Gronk's ADP hits around 20 or so, the comparisons become a lot less ridiculous. By the time Gronk hits the early-to-middle 2nd, Graham's absolutely in play for me in the top half of the first.
Except Gronk is about as far from a 'sure thing' as you can get.
True, but I picked that example based on forward-looking scoring, not rearward-looking scoring. Pierre Garcon is primed for regression from his league-leading 181 targets and is very unlikely to be anywhere near as productive next year. Julius Thomas will be in his second season as a starter and the Broncos are moving on from Eric Decker, so there's production to be had- we'd expect his numbers to possibly even trend up. And we aren't talking about Thomas, anyway. Thomas has a comparable ADP to Gronk and I easily could have used him in those comparisons, but I didn't because I agree that Graham provides a sizeable advantage even over Thomas.Using today's ADP. When drafts roll around if Gronk is actually looking like a go week 1 he isn't going to be available in the 3rd round.
Graham outscored Thomas by 4.8 points per game and the gap drops like a stone after that. Calvin outscored Garcon by just 2.5 in my .5 PPR. Using the example above.
Agreed, but I'm not talking about taking Gronk over Graham straight up. I'm talking about taking Calvin over Graham (I would say that Calvin is as close to a "sure thing" as you can get), and then taking Gronk over Garcon in the mid-3rd.
I think Thomas should be in the conversation at his current ADP in relation to Graham. Mainly because I've done my projections for these players and it plays out favorably. Perhaps others have different projections and this doesn't hold up the same. I agree that Thomas is likely to be more involved this year than he was last because of the loss of Decker. I also don't think Graham matches his career highs in YPR and TDs. Gronk
The poster I quoted referenced Thomas.True, but I picked that example based on forward-looking scoring, not rearward-looking scoring. Pierre Garcon is primed for regression from his league-leading 181 targets and is very unlikely to be anywhere near as productive next year. Julius Thomas will be in his second season as a starter and the Broncos are moving on from Eric Decker, so there's production to be had- we'd expect his numbers to possibly even trend up. And we aren't talking about Thomas, anyway. Thomas has a comparable ADP to Gronk and I easily could have used him in those comparisons, but I didn't because I agree that Graham provides a sizeable advantage even over Thomas.Using today's ADP. When drafts roll around if Gronk is actually looking like a go week 1 he isn't going to be available in the 3rd round.
Graham outscored Thomas by 4.8 points per game and the gap drops like a stone after that. Calvin outscored Garcon by just 2.5 in my .5 PPR. Using the example above.
We're talking about Gronk, though, and Graham only outscored Gronk by 1.5 ppg last year. And Gronk outscored Graham in both 2011 and 2012. Maybe future ADP won't be so out of whack, but as things stand today, I don't think there's any way to justify taking Graham at the top of the 1st when Gronk is routinely around late into the 3rd.
You can project anything you want. It's your projection! I'd actually like to see the projections people have for these guys, I've posted mine.I don't think it's wise to project more for Graham based on Sproles leaving or really at all. The reason being they drafted Cooks and are seemingly in love with him. At worst I'd say Cooks sees many of those targets.
wait what? why does it mean you'll have him on 60% of your redraft teams?
It's just good healthy fantasy conversation. We are all probaly in the process of setting our boards I like hearing other ideas on players just gives you other points of view
Of course. We are all here to discuss
FWIW: through four rounds in a 12 team ppr, I took Graham 5th overall. Thomas went 10th pick of round 2 and Gronk third pick of the 3rd.
I may very well do that (Calvin and Gronk). Calvin is as close to a sure thing as you can get at the skill positions.
That's not collusion.
No draft pick trading. As somebody said in another thread recently, you are then held hostage by your draft slot. So maybe I think Graham is worth a late first round pick, or an early second round pick. But I have the 3rd overall. How do I take Graham where I want him? Hence the post about working out a deal/trade, since most people are going to value McCoy/Peterson higher than Graham.
It's certainly a risk, but if it turns out I missed out on an elite TE and had to "settle" for Calvin in the first, instead... you know, I can live with that.Monsters of the Midway said:
I just googled and didn't see any updates...not sure if that means that there are no concerns? I think he has only missed two games in his career, but his ADP doesn't seem to reflect an already existing injury like Gronk's does IMO.Gottabesweet said:
Yeah...certainly a possibility.
I wish! In my main league the only guy listed here that will be available at 3.02 is Keenan Allen
Depending on league format and where you look, Graham has an ADP between 8 and 15. Let's just say it's 12, for arguments sake.ebsteelers said:
BUT... a human can diversify over multiple leagues to lower that 49%... also unlike rookie drafts... most leagues you cant trade back or around or up or down.
I took him 1.07 and won SB and was 2nd in total points.
you could almost come out the gates with graham, gronk and jules.
yeah last year i was 1.11 got him there and green in the 2nd...Current 32 team auction, I've landed Dez and Graham so far. I expect to have gaping holes elsewhere but these two should beebsteelers said:
