SSOG said:
TaxMan said:
gman8343 said:
There's no reason to think that he cant come back at full strength and just as good as he was before.
Are you sure about this? Isn't this the injury that no RB has come back from and been the same? Didn't it essentially end Duce Staley's career
Westbrook and Dunn both came back from the same injury, and lack of talent stifled staley's career
Westbrook's injury was MUCH LESS SEVERE than KJs. Westbrook had a Lis Franc sprain, KJ had a full blown fracture/dislocation. This doesn't work as a comparison IMO. Dunn is a better comparison because I believe he had very similar surgery. Having said that, the original poster's quote of "There's no reason to think he can't come back at full strength" doesn't make much sense to me. Of course there's a possibility he doesn't come back at full strength -- after any major injury like this, and this is a major injury, there is a possibility the player loses something. This doesn't mean KJ won't come back, but to say there is absolutely no concern about him being just as good as before the injury seems strange.
Sometimes sprains can be MORE severe then fractures. I think the reality is no one has a clue how Jones will do...
Sometimes sprains can be more severe, but in Westbrook's case it wasn't true. KJ's is worse and requires a much longer rehabilitation than Westy's did. You're dead on about no one has a clue about how Jones will do, which was my whole point. The original post's comment made it seem like it was impossible he wouldn't come back to 100%.
Personally, i'd stay away. Chances of him BETTER than where he was before the injury is low or even getting to where he was before he got hurt. Upside top-20/25, downside - career over.
He was top-10 before he got hurt, though. Last season if you toss out week 11 (where he got hurt after 11 carries), he was on pace for 1750 total yards and 12 TDs (as well as a whopping 89 receptions). When he finally won the starting job his rookie season, he was on pace for 1690 yards and 9 TDs. His upside isn't top 20/25, it's top 10. Top 10 upside as the 25th-30th RB off the board? Sounds good to me.
come on SSOG; you're better than this . . . WAY better . . . I have read enough of your posts that you are a proponent of footballoutsiders.com DVOA rankings . . .check out these numbers
2006
Jones -22.3%
Harris -5.0%
There were only 54 backs ranked (75 carry minimum), and Jones was next to last!! Even though Harris wasn't ranked, PER PLAY he was still better than Jones
2005
Jones -6.9%
Bryson 7.0%
Pinner -4.5%
Look at the disparity in 2005. Jones was 3rd in DVOA on his OWN TEAM.
2004
Jones 2.8%
Bryson 26.9%
Pinner -7.2%
This was the year that every Jones backer hangs their hat on. When he became the starter, blah, blah, blah. He was good (above average), BUT Bryson was MUCH BETTER (per play).
The last three years, Jones hasn't (per play) been the best RB on his OWN TEAM. So you can throw out the bad line and Mariucci excuses, etc.
And yes, for you people that don't like stats, I have watched plenty of Lions games and I see why Jones isn't that good. I have gone round and round with lions327 on another KJ thread, so I won't repeat that here . . .
Admit it; Jones isn't that good . . . time for the Lions to move on . . .
Bro, I think you need to get off the HateJonesKool-aid and the EllipseKool-aid. re Jones isn't best back on his team.
You are consistently pointing to Kevin Jones' poor YPC. You like YPC stats, I like YPC stats. Let's look at the teams breakdown of YPC:
Kevin Jones 183 691
3.78
Arlen Harris 49 158
3.22
Lamar Gordon 1 2
2.00
Aveion Cason 24 94
3.92
Brian Calhoun 8 17
2.12
Shawn Bryson 2 1
0.50
TEAM: YPC 3.61
Jones had higher YPC than the team average and significantly higher YPC than every other back on his team except Cason. With the amount of carries Jones has, the YPC he has, and the YPC on the rest of the team, he is really carrying it. As far as Cason, he played in 6 games and had only one with more than 5 carries. It is also not that uncommong for someone with just TWENTY-FOUR carries to have a higher YPC than the guy with the majority of carries.
Watching these two run, or Jones vs any other back on the roster shows an incredible divide in talent. It really does show that, and there is no any question about it. Also, just watching the DET running game (from a rush and rec. standpoint) after Jones was injured just highlighted how great Jones is.
re shawn bryson.
Bryson didn't have a game with over 7 carries in 2005 and averaged FOUR (4) carries per game. He also had a 1 carry game for 77 yards. That will throw your statistics off.
IMPRESSIVE STATS:
--Can you explain why, Duane, in Jones' last 8 games of his rookie year he put up these stats: 172 carries 902 yards 5.3 YPC. He was a rookie. Does Bryson still look better?
--How about his first 8 games of 2006? 136 carries for 584 yards, 4.3 average. Add in 41 rec. too. No credit for that?
--He is a
career 4.1 YPC RB. Marshall Faulk in his first 5 years averaged 4.1 3.7 3.0 4.0 4.1. Is Jones' YPC really that bad?
--Last year, Jones was on pace for
81 receptions, while he averaged
8 yards/reception. To put that in perspective, the top 3 reception totals were 91, 89, 77. Jones finished 5th despite playing 12 games. Some top yards/reception were Bush with 8.4, Gore wtih 8.0, Barber with 7.9.
--Jones had to go against the top rushing defense, Minn twice. In those games, Jones had a total of 19 carries for 5 yards (second game ended short due to injury).
This will skew how he looks as a RB.
--
He caught 78% of passes thrown his way. Bush had 74%. Gore had 70%. Barber had 72%. Tomlinson had 70%. Jackson had 82%.
You need to do one of the following duane, in any particular order:
(1) Watch the Lions.
(2) Look at stats that have real statistical meaning (ie, with enough carries).
(3) Throw out your obvious bias against Jones.
(4) Stop the love for Bryson, OR ANY DET RB.
(5) youtube.com --> search Kevin Jones.