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If this is the case...
then this will be the case.
And that's one reason they traded for Bell, to see if it was the line or Jones. All players in the NFL who fail have a reason (or excuse) or two for why they dont cut it. Eventually, their organization moves on to someone who has no reasons or produces in spite of them.
Very well? 2006 ypc 3.8
They traded for Bell because they had no RB depth at all. With Jones coming off a major injury, they had to acquire a proven RB just in case. But if Jones is healthy, it's his job. They did not trade for Bell because they don't think Jones is a good RB, it was strictly about depth and protection in case he doesn't come back for the start of the season. A poor offensive line like the Lions had last year is not an excuse for a below par yards per carry, it is a REASON. The Lions started 3 players toward the end of the season who were 3rd string, including both guards.
come on SSOG; you're better than this . . . WAY better . . . I have read enough of your posts that you are a proponent of footballoutsiders.com DVOA rankings . . .check out these numbers2006Jones -22.3% Harris -5.0%There were only 54 backs ranked (75 carry minimum), and Jones was next to last!! Even though Harris wasn't ranked, PER PLAY he was still better than Jones2005 Jones -6.9%Bryson 7.0%Pinner -4.5%Look at the disparity in 2005. Jones was 3rd in DVOA on his OWN TEAM.2004Jones 2.8%Bryson 26.9%Pinner -7.2%This was the year that every Jones backer hangs their hat on. When he became the starter, blah, blah, blah. He was good (above average), BUT Bryson was MUCH BETTER (per play).The last three years, Jones hasn't (per play) been the best RB on his OWN TEAM. So you can throw out the bad line and Mariucci excuses, etc.And yes, for you people that don't like stats, I have watched plenty of Lions games and I see why Jones isn't that good. I have gone round and round with lions327 on another KJ thread, so I won't repeat that here . . .Admit it; Jones isn't that good . . . time for the Lions to move on . . .SSOG said:
I bet you have never seen a Lions game, because if you had, you would know the main problem the Lions have had for years is a terrible offensive line.When Mariucci was here, Bryson was the 3rd down RB. Often with his terrible play calling and poor QB play it would be 3rd and long. I can't even begin to say how many times they would run a draw or throw a pass to Bryson on 3rd and long, when the DB's played very deep, and a lot of these there was no chance in hell to get a first down. They did pad his stats. For you to compare Bryson or Pinner to Jones shows you know very little about the Lions, and their RB's and have not actually seen them play. There is no comparison. To say they have outplayed him is just ridiculous.
So, if I follow your logic, DET should have kept Pinner. There you go, that's the problem!
Personally, Kevin Jones could have a career ypc of 1, and if he got 100 carries a game, I wouldn't care in the slightest. Kevin Jones could be the worst NFL RB in the history of the game, but as long as he produces top-10 fantasy numbers, then he has performed very well.I understand that pro-rating doesn't help you if a player goes down to injury, but the fact remains that when Kevin Jones has been healthy and on the field, he has produced at a top-10 level. If we're talking about Kevin Jones' upside if he returns to the exact form he was at before he was injured, then we're talking about what Kevin Jones would be if he replicated his success on the field... and in that case, he's a top-10 RB, not RB20-25 as has been suggested. Heck, if Kevin Jones returns to form *and* his line improves, he could potentially be a top-5 RB, so his upside is actually higher still.
Where did I say that Kevin Jones was a good RB? I don't remember saying that. I certainly said several times that, when healthy, he was a top-10 RB- but that's an easily demonstrable fact, regardless of how good he is. When healthy, he's twice averaged 100+ yards per game. He wound up carrying my fantasy team for the first half of last season. He may not be a great NFL RB (and I never said that he was or that he wasn't), but he *HAS* historically been a great FF RB, or at least he has when healthy.Also, you're abusing the FO stats pretty badly. There's a reason why FO doesn't rank RBs who get less than 50 carres- the sample size is so small as to be statistically meaningless. In addition, backups face advantages that the starter doesn't (they're more rested, facing a tired defense, and the defense doesn't key off against them like they do against the starter). Michael Turner has finished with a better DVOA than Tomlinson for two straight seasons now- are you going to argue that Tomlinson isn't even the best RB in San Diego, too?By the way, you also left out the strongest part of Kevin Jones's game- his receiving. KJ had -22.3 DVOA rushing last year, which is bad... but he had +22.2 DVOA receiving (add them together and what have you got? -.1% DVOA). Harris, on the other hand, had -18.0% DVOA rushing... and -5.0% DVOA receiving. Add them together, and what have you got? -23.0% DVOA.Or if you'd rather do a weighted average... Harris had 49 carries @ -18.0% and 25 targets @ -5.0%, which gives an average of -13.6% DVOA per touch. The weighted DVOA per touch for Kevin Jones... -8.9%, which is once again better than that of Harris.You tell me I'm better than that, but you should be as well. You used the statistics very selectively, ignored sample size, ignored a huge part of Kevin Jones's contributions, and also ignored the fact that backups almost ALWAYS outproduce the starter given the drastically more favorable situations when they're in the game. Kevin Jones has, indeed, been the best RB on his own team in each of the past three seasons. Whether he's been good is up for debate (Schatz himself frequently cautions that DVOA isn't great at separating a player's performance from that of his team, so it doesn't mean that Kevin Jones is horrible running the ball, it means that Kevin Jones is horrible running the ball behind Detroit's OLine with John Kitna keeping defenses honest).
Actually, DVOA adjusts for situation and rewards success (measured by contribution towards a first down), and also compares to the league average result in that situation, so running for 12 yards on 3rd and 18 counts for practically nothing.
This is not the first thread he's making a fool of himself, the question is if he has seen any game... ever
Bro, I think you need to get off the HateJonesKool-aid and the EllipseKool-aid. re Jones isn't best back on his team.
Actually, it's a bit more impressive than that, because you're including the game where he got injured after 4 carries (no receptions). If you drop the 8 yards he had that game and pro-rate based on 11 games, he would have gotten 89 receptions.
Well, I wont argue if it was an excuse or a reason, because I didnt get to see as many games as you did. But too many more reasons like that and Detroit will look to find themselves a new RB along with a new Offensive Line.I just dont see the optimism at this point for KJ. He's in danger of being placed on the PUP before the start of the season, he's already had an injury-plagued career thus far, his offensive line is apparently crap, he's in an offense that's far from run-oriented, and the Lions just recently made a trade to get Tatum Bell.
No offense, but that's alot of negatives. Some pretty bad ones too.
Fair enough
excellent points; and I agree on the bolded part . . .again, reread, I said (per play) Jones wasn't the best back on his team . . . I am familiar with the assertion that a lot of backups (A Peterson (CHI) and M Morris (SEA) ) sometimes have better DVOA numbers . . . that's why I stressed the (per play) angle in my original post . . .
to refure your points 1) He caught 78% of the passes thrown his wayBro, I think you need to get off the HateJonesKool-aid and the EllipseKool-aid. re Jones isn't best back on his team.
You are consistently pointing to Kevin Jones' poor YPC. You like YPC stats, I like YPC stats. Let's look at the teams breakdown of YPC:
Kevin Jones 183 691 3.78
Arlen Harris 49 158 3.22
Lamar Gordon 1 2 2.00
Aveion Cason 24 94 3.92
Brian Calhoun 8 17 2.12
Shawn Bryson 2 1 0.50
TEAM: YPC 3.61
Jones had higher YPC than the team average and significantly higher YPC than every other back on his team except Cason. With the amount of carries Jones has, the YPC he has, and the YPC on the rest of the team, he is really carrying it. As far as Cason, he played in 6 games and had only one with more than 5 carries. It is also not that uncommong for someone with just TWENTY-FOUR carries to have a higher YPC than the guy with the majority of carries.
Watching these two run, or Jones vs any other back on the roster shows an incredible divide in talent. It really does show that, and there is no any question about it. Also, just watching the DET running game (from a rush and rec. standpoint) after Jones was injured just highlighted how great Jones is.
re shawn bryson.
Bryson didn't have a game with over 7 carries in 2005 and averaged FOUR (4) carries per game. He also had a 1 carry game for 77 yards. That will throw your statistics off.
IMPRESSIVE STATS:
--Can you explain why, Duane, in Jones' last 8 games of his rookie year he put up these stats: 172 carries 902 yards 5.3 YPC. He was a rookie. Does Bryson still look better?
--How about his first 8 games of 2006? 136 carries for 584 yards, 4.3 average. Add in 41 rec. too. No credit for that?
--He is a career 4.1 YPC RB. Marshall Faulk in his first 5 years averaged 4.1 3.7 3.0 4.0 4.1. Is Jones' YPC really that bad?
--Last year, Jones was on pace for 81 receptions, while he averaged 8 yards/reception. To put that in perspective, the top 3 reception totals were 91, 89, 77. Jones finished 5th despite playing 12 games. Some top yards/reception were Bush with 8.4, Gore wtih 8.0, Barber with 7.9.
--Jones had to go against the top rushing defense, Minn twice. In those games, Jones had a total of 19 carries for 5 yards (second game ended short due to injury). This will skew how he looks as a RB.
--He caught 78% of passes thrown his way. Bush had 74%. Gore had 70%. Barber had 72%. Tomlinson had 70%. Jackson had 82%.
You need to do one of the following duane, in any particular order:
(1) Watch the Lions.
(2) Look at stats that have real statistical meaning (ie, with enough carries).
(3) Throw out your obvious bias against Jones.
(4) Stop the love for Bryson, OR ANY DET RB.
(5) youtube.com --> search Kevin Jones.
Reason for optimism: when he's been on the field, he's been top-10. As cheaply as he can be acquired, that's plenty reason enough for me.Sure, he's been injured so far, but other players have overcome injuries before. Sure, his OL sucks, but that didn't stop him from being a stud before. Sure, his offense is far from run-oriented, but no other offense in the league involves their RBs more in the passing game. Sure, the Lions just acquired TBell, but he's definitely the backup if KJ is healthy, and he's probably gone after this season anyway. There are lots of negatives about KJ, but there have always been a lot of negatives about KJ, and he's still produced at a top-10 pace. The only negative that really concerns me is the injury.I just dont see the optimism at this point for KJ. He's in danger of being placed on the PUP before the start of the season, he's already had an injury-plagued career thus far, his offensive line is apparently crap, he's in an offense that's far from run-oriented, and the Lions just recently made a trade to get Tatum Bell. If I were a KJ owner right now (I dont know if you are or not), the last thing I would be doing is trying to paint a picture of feeling good about him on my roster.
Any one who takes the gamble at picking Kevin Jonesin a dynasty draft, should absolutely take Tatum Bell.
Actually, according to FO, most of that is the OL. That's why they list it under "Offensive Line" statistics. No team was stuffed more than Detroit, no team was worse in short yardage than Detroit. That's on the OL's shoulders.If you want some evidence that that's the fault of the OLine and not KJ, I can provide it. In 2005, Indy was stuffed less than any other team in the league. In 2008, they were 8th best. In 2005, Arizona was stuffed more than any other team in the league. In 2006, they ranked 31st. That's how much difference Edgerrin James made- he dropped Indy from 1st to 8th, and he raised Arizona from 32nd to 31st. Looks to me like the offensive line is almost entirely responsible for how frequently the RB is stuffed.In fact, look at all of those stats: Stuffed, Power%, 10+ rank, and Adjust Line Yards. In all four cases, Indy ranked about the same with and without James, and Arizona ranked about the same with and without James. Unless you're arguing that Edgerrin James is essentially no better than Marcel Shipp, then that's a pretty clear argument that low rankings in those statistics are the fault of the O-Line far more than the RB.
Let me get this right, you're saying that average = bad?
where did I say that? I said he is NOT a good back, this post concerns his pass catching ability . . .
good points, but I was examining Power rankings (not Stuffed) . . in 2005, Indy was 29th; in 2006 Indy was 22nd . . . pretty good increase . . .
good grief, its not that complicated . . .HORRIBLE referred to the short yardage performance . . .
classic . . .
So is he a bad back, or an oft-injured back. Two different things and you flip-flop between the two quite a bit.duaneok66 said:
Arizona went from 32nd to 26th- a boost of 6 slots, which is essentially the same. Indy went up 7 slots. I really don't know how you can pin either behavior on Edgerrin James... either Edge was a horrible RB in power situations, and that's why Indy increased when he left... or else Edge was great in power situations, and that's why Arizona increased when he left. Really, the simplest explanation for both increases is just simple regression to the mean.Also, Duane, I'm curious how you can call Kevin Jones an "average" passcatching RB, since FO rated him 8th in DVOA and 2nd in DPAR. Either you like FO's stats and he's a stud passcatcher, or you prefer standard stats and he's just average. You can't pick and choose, referencing FO's stats when they support your point and then completely ignoring them when they don't.duaneok66 said:
the two aren't mutually exclusive . . .
1) an increase from 41% to 56% (38%) is not "essentially the same" . . .2) You brought up Edge; I was just stating that you were using Stuffed instead of Power . . .
1) I was looking at the ranks, not the percentages. If a team goes from -50% on offense to -30% on offense, does the size of the increase really matter if they're the worst offense in the entire league both seasons?2) I started with Stuffed, then said that similar conclusions could have been drawn from any of the other stats. You questioned me on Power, so I demonstrated how the same conclusion could be drawn from Power stats. If you want, I'll repeat the process with the other stats, too.3) Even now, you're using language to marginalize his accomplishments as much as possible. He wasn't "above average" catching the ball last year, he was a STUD catching the ball last year. His DVOA was over 22%, and his sample size was large enough to show it wasn't a fluke. He was #2 in the league in DPAR. If he was a WR, he still would have ranked in the top 10 in DVOA. He did all of this despite a pretty darn poor supporting cast.
But you're crossing arguments here:(1) You admit he can put up fantasy points that can look good when pro-rated. (2) You say he's not a good back (fantasy and real world).If you don't think he's a good back, how can he put up points that look good when pro-rated?
Nothing new, and I doubt much will be heard until camp starts.
Do I understand you right? Tatum Bell is actually going before Kevin Jones now?
Just look what Martz was able to do with Faulk even on a passy happy team. Of course, Faulk is Faulk, but KJ showed last year that he could put up some great points. And Tatum Bell fits better into that offense. Whichever guy gets that gig could put up a lot of points. The question is getting the right guy with KJ's injury. Which is why if you've had a nice draft and can get both of these, the final product could be the equivalent of a 2nd or 3rd round pick, I think.
I've been doing alot of mock drafts and Bell before Jones is true. Right Now. Once camp opens we'll see if that remains the case. People are generally worried and probably should be.Do I understand you right? Tatum Bell is actually going before Kevin Jones now?
How is a RB who is awful in the receiving game a better fit for a Martz offense?
30 picks later than League 1
