Unquantifiable.To pull numbers out of my ### (the best any of us can do) id say in a 10 team league of similar skill owners (bad or good) it will 100% depend on where you draft.Whereas in a league of variable skilled owners id say the skilled owners have an 80% of making the playoffs before draft day.Moral of the story, dont play in all shark leagues, gotta have fish if you wanna make money. But if you want bragging rights then enjoy drawing the 1-4 seat or just losing.In a 10 team league you have a 10% chance of winning. How much does skill, drafting and roster management, increase you odds? When you factor in injuries, coaching decisions, weather, players progressing/declining ect... How much is winning a league totally based on luck?
The size of the league doesn't matter for the discussion.I find that the fewer the teams, the more luck is involved. I try to stay away from 10 team leagues because everyone's team is pretty much stacked.
Actually, it does matter. The smaller the size of the league, the more stud players are available per team. Let's say you and I are going to play in a 2 team league. How are either of us going to get an advantage? (I know this is an extreme example) Roster size would also make a difference.The size of the league doesn't matter for the discussion.I find that the fewer the teams, the more luck is involved. I try to stay away from 10 team leagues because everyone's team is pretty much stacked.
I think in a 14 team league the advantage of drafting early is negated. Whereas in 10-12 teams its still there, so if you actually care about the luck portion of it should probably start at the beginning.The size of the league doesn't matter for the discussion.I find that the fewer the teams, the more luck is involved. I try to stay away from 10 team leagues because everyone's team is pretty much stacked.
Good points. I won a league with the worse roster imo but of course I made the decisions. Three week playoffs: week one matchup was the lowest two scoring teams, week two janikowski missed a 65 YARD KICK, which is -2, to give me a one point win, The Championship if Brees throws a TD to anyone but Jimmy Graham I lose by 1. I'd admitt my opponents may have done things that I wouldn't have but it was all luck.I say if you've had success for 4-5 years than its skill. One or two year it's still debatable.I started a similar thread a couple of years ago about this same topic. The league I was in at the time had an owner that believed that luck had very little to do with success in ff. So, I asked the opinion of the shark pool.Basically, most players know there is some luck involved. There are a few players that think they can overcome bad luck (injuries, hold outs, suspensions, Shanahans) by drafting correct depth. I am of the belief that the smaller the league and the smaller the roster, the more luck plays a part. Especially if a league uses first come, first served waivers. If an owner is so smart, then they should be never have to use the waiver system to replace a starter. If they do, then it was probably an unfortunate act of bad luck that caused the need to add a player.
I think I've reached this point.Unquantifiable.To pull numbers out of my ### (the best any of us can do) id say in a 10 team league of similar skill owners (bad or good) it will 100% depend on where you draft.In a 10 team league you have a 10% chance of winning. How much does skill, drafting and roster management, increase you odds? When you factor in injuries, coaching decisions, weather, players progressing/declining ect... How much is winning a league totally based on luck?
Whereas in a league of variable skilled owners id say the skilled owners have an 80% of making the playoffs before draft day.
Moral of the story, dont play in all shark leagues, gotta have fish if you wanna make money. But if you want bragging rights then enjoy drawing the 1-4 seat or just losing.
Skill?Actually, it does matter. The smaller the size of the league, the more stud players are available per team. Let's say you and I are going to play in a 2 team league. How are either of us going to get an advantage? (I know this is an extreme example) Roster size would also make a difference.The size of the league doesn't matter for the discussion.I find that the fewer the teams, the more luck is involved. I try to stay away from 10 team leagues because everyone's team is pretty much stacked.
Not really. If we went head to head for 14 weeks with a roster of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Def. There would be so many players available that it would not be difficult to find studs at each position. Just do a mock draft of two teams, and you can see for yourself.Skill?Actually, it does matter. The smaller the size of the league, the more stud players are available per team. Let's say you and I are going to play in a 2 team league. How are either of us going to get an advantage? (I know this is an extreme example) Roster size would also make a difference.The size of the league doesn't matter for the discussion.I find that the fewer the teams, the more luck is involved. I try to stay away from 10 team leagues because everyone's team is pretty much stacked.
There are about 100 threads on this subject already.Fantasy football requires a high degree of skill. If you randomly chose players from the NFL pool you'd have a ####ty team. But most people can get by using someone else's skill--a cheatsheet.In a 10 team league you have a 10% chance of winning. How much does skill, drafting and roster management, increase you odds? When you factor in injuries, coaching decisions, weather, players progressing/declining ect... How much is winning a league totally based on luck?
Uh, yeah it does. Smaller leagues = more luck.The size of the league doesn't matter for the discussion.I find that the fewer the teams, the more luck is involved. I try to stay away from 10 team leagues because everyone's team is pretty much stacked.
Skill does not = luck in this case. And random selection does not = either.So, its not really talking about the same thing. ANyone who plays with any real level of seriousness (taking it serious) is going to make picks, whether on a cheat sheet or their gut or whatever.The luck is injuries (to your team or opponents), running into guys on career days, players getting caught up in league issues and being ineligible, personal issues in a player's life that affects their play, etc, etc. SO MUCH luck in fantasy that if the "serious" player really stops to think about it, they would probably quit.There are about 100 threads on this subject already.Fantasy football requires a high degree of skill. If you randomly chose players from the NFL pool you'd have a ####ty team. But most people can get by using someone else's skill--a cheatsheet.In a 10 team league you have a 10% chance of winning. How much does skill, drafting and roster management, increase you odds? When you factor in injuries, coaching decisions, weather, players progressing/declining ect... How much is winning a league totally based on luck?
This is true. That's why I don't worry about my draft position or get pissed if the guy I wanted was taken before I could get him. Chances are that guy gets hurt or something and the guy I'm forced to "settle" with is more valuable.Skill does not = luck in this case. And random selection does not = either.So, its not really talking about the same thing. ANyone who plays with any real level of seriousness (taking it serious) is going to make picks, whether on a cheat sheet or their gut or whatever.The luck is injuries (to your team or opponents), running into guys on career days, players getting caught up in league issues and being ineligible, personal issues in a player's life that affects their play, etc, etc. SO MUCH luck in fantasy that if the "serious" player really stops to think about it, they would probably quit.There are about 100 threads on this subject already.Fantasy football requires a high degree of skill. If you randomly chose players from the NFL pool you'd have a ####ty team. But most people can get by using someone else's skill--a cheatsheet.In a 10 team league you have a 10% chance of winning. How much does skill, drafting and roster management, increase you odds? When you factor in injuries, coaching decisions, weather, players progressing/declining ect... How much is winning a league totally based on luck?
This.I have had great teams flop inthe playoffs and "MEH" teams get hot and vice versa. There is SO much luck in FF that it makes me often question what the point is.Used to be skill but now so much info is out there and so many sites that help you draft that it is hard to get an edge. I have been playing over 20 years..I have won titles with some of my worst teams and lost with my best teams.
The teams that seem to win always get a guy late in the draft that has a career year. Or a backup RB that goes off when the starter goes down.
You know, unless you play best ball, you still have to pick who to start each week. That's a skill, too. That league would emphasize different skills, but skills nonetheless. Actually, I think looking at the number of teams involved is the wrong way to go. Look at the number of players started. Imagine a 16-team league with a 1-man roster and no waivers. That'd be the least skillful league ever- the winner would literally be whoever's guy didn't get hurt. On the other hand, imagine a 2-person league with huge starting lineups- a dozen QBs, two dozen RBs, three dozen WRs each. I'd imagine that league would be far and away the best way to establish drafting skill. Injuries would have a minimal impact on performance, as would lucky picks. To win, you'd need to demonstrate an ability to consistently outperform the other guy in terms of identifying talent on the board. If that's the skill you want to identify, that'd probably be the best way to do it.Not really. If we went head to head for 14 weeks with a roster of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1Def. There would be so many players available that it would not be difficult to find studs at each position. Just do a mock draft of two teams, and you can see for yourself.Skill?Actually, it does matter. The smaller the size of the league, the more stud players are available per team. Let's say you and I are going to play in a 2 team league. How are either of us going to get an advantage? (I know this is an extreme example) Roster size would also make a difference.The size of the league doesn't matter for the discussion.I find that the fewer the teams, the more luck is involved. I try to stay away from 10 team leagues because everyone's team is pretty much stacked.
If the game is luck, no skill is involved; random selection will win just as often as the world's best player. Flipping a coin is 100% luck. Baccarat is 100% luck. No input from the player is required at all to achieve optimal results.Fantasy football isn't that way at all. All the trivial algorithms for player selection are terrible; the worst player in your league is immeasurably better than someone who knew nothing about football or fantasy football would be without a cheatsheet.It is certainly true that the availability of large amounts of information from skilled sources has allowed relatively unskilled players to play well. But that doesn't mean the game is luck; it means that the difference in skill between the best player in your league and the worst player in your league isn't very large, because both have access to information from highly skilled sources.Skill does not = luck in this case. And random selection does not = either.So, its not really talking about the same thing. ANyone who plays with any real level of seriousness (taking it serious) is going to make picks, whether on a cheat sheet or their gut or whatever.The luck is injuries (to your team or opponents), running into guys on career days, players getting caught up in league issues and being ineligible, personal issues in a player's life that affects their play, etc, etc. SO MUCH luck in fantasy that if the "serious" player really stops to think about it, they would probably quit.There are about 100 threads on this subject already.Fantasy football requires a high degree of skill. If you randomly chose players from the NFL pool you'd have a ####ty team. But most people can get by using someone else's skill--a cheatsheet.In a 10 team league you have a 10% chance of winning. How much does skill, drafting and roster management, increase you odds? When you factor in injuries, coaching decisions, weather, players progressing/declining ect... How much is winning a league totally based on luck?
Absolutely it matters.Actually, it does matter.The size of the league doesn't matter for the discussion.I find that the fewer the teams, the more luck is involved. I try to stay away from 10 team leagues because everyone's team is pretty much stacked.
Completely agree, and the other dimension to this answer is that increasing the time period increases the amount of skill vs. luck, whatever you believe the actual ratio is.As has been stated in this and countless other threads, nearly any reasonable team can beat an undefeated team in a one game Week 16 head to head championship. However, a comparison of two owners over a decade of competition will almost certainly reveal the more skilled fantasy player.Any one week, it's mostly luck.Any one season, it's still a lot of luck, but less.Multiple seasons, it's becoming a lot less luck.I don't know what numbers to put in, as there's no way that I know to even get close. But I do know that in leagues I have been in for 5+ seasons, it's no surprise to find a group of the same owners usually in the playoffs, and a different group of owners usually out of the playoffs, and that suggests skill is definitely in the picture.By the way, threads like these usually evolve -- or spin off -- to how to decrease luck in FF leagues. Usually, that involves a combination of total points and all-play formats being added to, or completely replacing, head-to-head format. My personal preference is to have a head-to-head competition along with a total points format, so that potentially two champions are crowned. If you win both the head-to-head and total points, you are arguably both lucky AND good.There is more skill than those who do poorly want to admit and more luck than winners care to acknowledge.It's the same answer EVERY TIME THIS COMES UP (which has been several times per year since I registered....give or take...)
"Nearly any reasonable team" requires an enormous amount of skill to put together. It may not be the skill of the guy in your league, but by reading someone else's cheatsheet he's borrowing their skill.As has been stated in this and countless other threads, nearly any reasonable team can beat an undefeated team in a one game Week 16 head to head championship.
I'm ok with that. It's an insightful nugget to suggest that anyone downloading a cheatsheet off the internet 15 minutes before their draft is using skill, albeit someone else's, to help select their team.There is no doubt that gaining a significant informational advantage prior to a league draft as was possible 15 years ago is flat out impossible. So the question becomes, what other form of "skill" can be a differentiator, other than which league owner chooses the best paid projections source and/or draft software to use in a given league in a given year?At least in part, the answer to that question, WHEN APPLICABLE, is to know your league inside and out. Scoring system (obviously), individual owner tendencies, and collective league draft histories all can be used in place of mock drafting. In freshly_shorn's MDB thread elsewhere currently on the top page of the Shark Pool, I described my approach to best predict when I need to select a player at a given position based on past drafts projected forward to the current draft. While not always working out perfectly, I at least give myself the best shot at not waiting too long to get a desired player, and also not taking a player too early who might have lasted another round or two.It may very well be that in many leagues, the greatest achievable skill deferential may well be in predraft preparation and draft execution, not about players and projections, but actually about league and individual owner tendencies, and how that should impact your draft selections in the critical mid-rounds, say from 4th-7th or 5th-8th, or some other window depending on the size of the league and roster composition variables."Nearly any reasonable team" requires an enormous amount of skill to put together. It may not be the skill of the guy in your league, but by reading someone else's cheatsheet he's borrowing their skill.As has been stated in this and countless other threads, nearly any reasonable team can beat an undefeated team in a one game Week 16 head to head championship.