Milkman
Footballguy
Dave's feeling are hurt too obviously. Sorry guys Mack is unlikely to be your stud RB for the next 2-3 years. He is in a great spot for the stretch run. Lets hope he stays healthy.
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Marlon Mack, RB, DEN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ShamrockPride
- Start date
Forestbull
Footballguy
Lol yeah I'm done with that guy, he acts like a child. But anyways I always thought Mack was legit, it was the injuries and vision that held him back.
That being said, I dont believe he is elite (Gurley, Barkley, Kamara, Gordon, 2016 DJ) but I would not be surprised if he ends up an rb1 the 2nd half of the season. The Colts O line has been crushing it and Mack's vision has greatly improved. Also, Mack had a few drops the last couple of weeks, so he needs to clean that up but excited for him nonetheless.
Sadly I don't own Mack, so I'm just a bystander here.
I do love unintended irony though. Yours was fantastic.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
Please stop arguing with other posters and stay on topic. Thanks.
Sorry for my temporary lack of judgement. All efforts should be taken to troll Milkman, not discourage the activity!!
Won't happen again
The Finist
Footballguy
Will he be cleared? And if he is, can you trust him vs the Jags this week?
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
packer_junkie
Footballguy
Full practice yesterday seems like he will be cleared-- Tough decision here for most. Debating him vs Flex guys like Corey Davis & DJ Moore
shadrap
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
The Finist
Footballguy
Marlon Mack (concussion) returned to a full practice on Thursday, suggesting he’s on track for Week 13 clearance. Even as Jacksonville has done well to limit yards per carry, hot-seat DC Todd Wash’s unit got stomped for 125-plus rushing yards in five of its last seven games and has given up nine rushing TDs during its seven-game losing streak. With 17-plus touches in four of his last five games, Mack is a volume-based RB2 with big-play ability on a high-scoring offense facing an overrated defense. Nyheim Hines remains Mack’s change-of-pace complement with 23 combined touches since the Colts’ Week 9 bye. Jordan Wilkins has only eight touches in that span and lost a first-half fumble last week.
Evan Silva Rotoworld
Evan Silva Rotoworld
tkrull
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Assuming by the lack of activity in here, not a single one of us started him for those 140 yards and 2 TDs last week?
Think I'm sliding him in over Fournette this week.
Think I'm sliding him in over Fournette this week.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Yes I did. Other option was Drake.
Expected a decent game, but certainly not that.
I'm riding him this week as well. Indy is fighting for a spot.
tkrull
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
No, I've been using Mack since Conner went down. Very nice fill-in week to say the least.
rschroeder1
Footballguy
Mack is a tough one to figure out so far. His success seems tied to the health of Indy's offensive line so far. There have been some games when his usage or lack thereof felt match-up based, but hard to isolate since they haven't had the entire line in place until this past game. The other interesting factor is the continued development of the Colts defense (!!!) that is siphoning some traditional Andrew Luck points to Mack and/or whoever the RB is.
Not sure where to value Mack moving forward...RB2 with upside assuming the line is healthy? Don't have a lot of confidence in him yet, but I don't want to dump early on a young player (keeper purposes - forgive the assistant coach intrusion).
Not sure where to value Mack moving forward...RB2 with upside assuming the line is healthy? Don't have a lot of confidence in him yet, but I don't want to dump early on a young player (keeper purposes - forgive the assistant coach intrusion).
Nero
Footballguy
I have too. And its a great matchup versus the Giants. I'm not sure I can take him out if Conner returns given the matchups.
So after Kareem Hunt got himself kicked out of the league Mack became my #1 RB by default. Going into the season it felt like he was a place holder, until they addressed the position down the road. Have the last 10-12 games bought him some safety as the Colts #1 RB for next season or does it feel like they need to pick up serious competition for him? He's looked pretty good (top 5 in rushing over that period?) but It still feels like it's more of the offensive line than him.
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TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Include his playoff game, his 16 game projection would be around 1450 YFS/13.5 TD’s...
With Hines/Wilkins to compliment, I’d think they feel good here. Plus, if it is the OL...then they’re set anyway.
With Hines/Wilkins to compliment, I’d think they feel good here. Plus, if it is the OL...then they’re set anyway.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
rschroeder1
Footballguy
I concur that the Colts' offensive line deserves much of the credit here. Certainly hard with the naked eye to separate out what Mack is doing versus the line, but from the naked eye, it does seem like Mack's vision has improved, in that he's hitting running lanes quicker. He seems to lack the breakaway speed to ever be a top real-life RB, but he also has displayed some ability to make people miss in the open field.
I was interested to see that Football Outsiders ranks Mack 4th among all RB by their DYAR stat and 9th by DVOA. The naked eye test wouldn't have told me that (whatever THAT may actually mean - I'll stop being vague now).
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb
I was interested to see that Football Outsiders ranks Mack 4th among all RB by their DYAR stat and 9th by DVOA. The naked eye test wouldn't have told me that (whatever THAT may actually mean - I'll stop being vague now).
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb
I think DVOA/DYAR rewards 'big play' ability, so guys like Mack will rank higher, but Chubb will be #1 on PFF yet #18 on FO. They also differently rate quality of defense for opponent, run blocking, etc.
It should be interesting to see how Mack does outdoors against one of the worst run blocking units in the Chiefs.
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Forestbull
Footballguy
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
According to FBO
I think it is pretty clear just looking at the lists that good play over a small sample size leads to a larger DVOA
Todd gurley is number one followed by Derrick Henry who is two on 215 rushing attempts. The next 7 players are all under 200 rushing attempts.
It seems pretty clear to me that just like the stat ypc with increased volume efficiency goes down, while a player with lower volume benefits more from big plays for their average value per play.
The thing I like most about FBO stats for RB is the success rate which takes into consideration down and distance which they call success rate. I think this is a fair way to compare the players as it eliminates the extra yards on big plays and just fairly compares how often every RB had successful runs for the down and distance. This also evens things out for players who are used in short yardage situations more often.
Marlon Mack had a 54% success rate this season, which was 8th best in the league.
I think the offensive line and having Luck back for defenses to worry about helps Mack tremendously, but converting 54% of his runs shows improvement in Mack compared to what I saw from him in college.
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rschroeder1
Footballguy
Thanks for the analysis. I didn't see a lot of Mack on TV this year, but what I did see, he seemed like a more decisive runner than his rookie year. I'm not really sure how good he is in a vacuum as an RB, but I'm pretty confident in him as a solid RB2 from a fantasy perspective with Luck and that offensive line.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I didn't get to see him much this year either. So I am still somewhat working with what I saw of him at the college level.
Just using FBO stats from last year however, Mack is way way down their list. He didn't have 100 rushing attempts, so he didn't qualify for the first list, so I don't see success rate for him listed there, but it had to be much worse, as his DVOA was -6.9% last season. 73 RB were ranked ahead of Mack last season and some of them were guys like Chris SIms. That is the Marlon Mack I saw in college.
He changed.
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Mack bounced a lot of runs outside last year and he did that in college as well. He was much better at taking the run inside when needed this year. I really love watching him play, his hips are like he's on a swivel. I wish he caught more passes, I always thought he was pretty decent at that.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He does have great change of direction ability.
Watching him play was somewhat Jeckyll and Hyde for me. On some plays he would look excellent, like a really special RB, on other plays he would look really bad, like not going to make it as a starter if he keeps doing that bad.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Does Mack lose all value if/when Ajayi signs?
BoltBacker
Footballguy
How many RB's in the NFL aren't in some sort of time share? Have all of them lost all their value?
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
tkrull
Footballguy
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Hopefully it lowers his price. I think Mack beats out Ajayi even if Ajayi stays healthy.
saintfool
Dead sexy
I think he's just a different back than Mack. They don't have a bruiser, interior RB really. Wilkins is maybe a more physical than Mack but that's about it. Ajayi would give them less reliant on Luck.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Is it just me or does anyone else think Ajayi isn't that great. Yes, it would hurt Mack's value and make him cheaper, but I think Mack has a lot more talent than Ajayi.
