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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (4 Viewers)

moderated said:
downanddistance said:
Question for ya...We're talking about a company with outstanding fundamentals... A Stock that was being "traded" here a lot in the 5.25 - 5.70 range a bunch...This raising of money is actually good news in the long term.....So why wouldn't it even be better if this stock was now "traded in the $5.00 - $5.50 range or so....You're talking a stock that was MUCH higher a year ago.....I think the dust just needs to settle on this one.
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Another thing is how shady this seemed. Paragon basically just amended their earlier offering by changing the language to issue another 10 million shares in a confusing way.Even after reading the SEC document it takes a few readings to realize they are diluting another 10 million shares and that it isn't part of the initial offering. the timing makes it confusing, the lack of any kind of press release makes it confusing, the entire thing is shady.I honestly still don't think most shareholders have any clue about the new dilution. I would have never known without someone on here reading through the documents and finding it out themselves.The only Greek company i'll ever invest in again will be gyro businesses. The whole greek dryship sector is corrupt and shady IMO.I did make a lot of money on them (ave buy in 3.79, sold over $5), so this isn't any vendetta against them, but the way they went about this new offering was dishonest.also no one knows what they are doing with the capital. if they are just paying off debt and not expanding the business the shareholders are losing. Too bad we have no clue as Paragon doesn't let their shareholders know anything and dilute their stock with nary a peep.
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Agreed. They could have told shareholder that liquidity requirements were close at hand and another ATM could be possible. They do have a presentation at shipping conference on Wed. We'll see what they say.
 
I also agree this was extremely shady. Where was this discussion when they announced earnings? And with the stock poised so much higher, how about at least telling the shareholders what the agreement was (we know how many shares, but at what price? If it's calculated, how is it calculated, etc?). Too many unknowns for me to invest with these guys this second. I want to see what they do with the extra cash (I think it's a give that they further restructure debt). I do think by next summer though this stock could easily be worth $9 or so. I am just looking at getting back in with more info and at a better price.

 
I think Cantor Fizt gets 3% of the sale of new stock. So it is their best interest to get as high a price as possible. But by when? PRGN can't wait forever. That is another unknown.

 
downanddistance said:
I think Cantor Fizt gets 3% of the sale of new stock. So it is their best interest to get as high a price as possible. But by when? PRGN can't wait forever. That is another unknown.
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This is correct, but no matter what at some point they have to sell. By definition, that means a price ceiling until the 10M shares are out. I would rather invest my money in something with unlimited upside, not in a company that has a price ceiling built in. I think Dodds has this right for the time being, unless it gets real cheap let the dust clear for a while.
 
None_More_Black said:
The Ref said:
The Ref said:
Up day, Natural Gas is down.

Down day, Natural Gas is down.

Dollar is up, Natural Gas is down.

Dollar is down, Natural Gas is down.

Dodds buys PRGN, Natural Gas is down.

I woke up this morning, Natural Gas is down.

At some point, and I'm not saying now is that point, Natural Gas is going to be a steal.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UNG
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UNG almost cracked $14 today. It can always get cheaper, but Gas is being kicked around hard right now.
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If you like it, get in with some puts. Sell some 14.00 June calls for .60. They expire next Friday.
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My trade account is part of my 401k so I can't write options. Not a bad idea that being said.Not sure I like Gas to move up OR down over the next day, week, or even month. Truth is, anyone who says they know for sure is either lying or "knows something". That said, in a similar fashion to DXO in past months, I do think "in time" you could put some money in UNG and have it appreciate. I don’t think that Natural Gas is done as a tradable commodity. In fact, all I have to do is walk downstairs to my basement and file though my bills from this past winter to know that natural gas is something that average people spend a lot of money on every year.

Question is when to enter and what’s the upside. I love the fact that it's a commodity that has been left behind the rally. I love the fact that it's a usd hedge. I love the fact that Natural Gas is trading at a relative low.

 
OK Im bored not having any scratch in the game. Im starting to get addicted.

Im going to try to avoid FAZ at all costs but it is so juicy for a quick hitter.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Otis said:
CHK premarket> hiPre-Market: 23.92 +1.00 (4.36%)
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I liked the pick so I jumped in for a small holding (50 shares). Do you have a price target in mind?
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My buddy determined, based on some serious analysis including on the unknown re: how much gas they have in the shale reserves (which he believes to be a larger amount than most, and that is supposedly pegged with 90% certainty) that this is ultimately an $80 stock. Short term, as in towards the end of the year, he expects $30. That's why I rolled on these options. We shall see.
 
Otis said:
King of the Jungle said:
Otis said:
CHK premarket> hiPre-Market: 23.92 +1.00 (4.36%)
Click to expand...
I liked the pick so I jumped in for a small holding (50 shares). Do you have a price target in mind?
Click to expand...
My buddy determined, based on some serious analysis including on the unknown re: how much gas they have in the shale reserves (which he believes to be a larger amount than most, and that is supposedly pegged with 90% certainty) that this is ultimately an $80 stock. Short term, as in towards the end of the year, he expects $30. That's why I rolled on these options. We shall see.
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this is rich
 
siffoin said:
Random said:
FavreCo said:
HEB could go the way of VNDA (although VNDA shot up 800% in one day) on FDA approval. If not approved, it does like all drug stocks do when failing, it goes back to where it started. That would be about 0.5.
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So wouldn't a huge trailing stop be the play here? Something like 50% maybe?
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You don't want to do that. In the case of a stock like HEB with impending news, never show them an open order lower than the current price. All that does is give a MM an chance to take a run at your shares.
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Just want to thank you guys for pointing this out. Never would have believed this could happen but now I've seen it twice with this stock. Unreal.
 
Random said:
analog_hiss said:
bd3521 said:
Cromedog said:
HEB tanking....2.45
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Missed buying opp :wall:
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Me, too.Set a buy order for 1000 @ 2.30, never got there.
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Isn't that really dangerous with this company? If FDA approval gets denied, won't you get stuck if you're not at your computer?
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Wasn't planning on holding those shares. The drop looked like another wipe out of stops...just hoping to get in and get out with a small profit.
 
bd3521 said:
Random said:
analog_hiss said:
bd3521 said:
Cromedog said:
HEB tanking....2.45
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Missed buying opp :wall:
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Me, too.Set a buy order for 1000 @ 2.30, never got there.
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Isn't that really dangerous with this company? If FDA approval gets denied, won't you get stuck if you're not at your computer?
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I would assume they'd have to halt during market hours.This may help too...

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts
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But for how long?
 
Speaking of HEB, does anyone know how we will know if Ampligen isn't approved? Will the FDA announce an unapproval? :wall:

 
OK OK!!!!

So I sold PRGN at a small loss on the bump up this morning at 5.11. One positive trade and one negative, I'm probably even or up $100.00 or so...

I've gotta say though... :nerd: My Stock story is similar to Dodds - Great success years ago with everyone else in the Dot com boom and then a hard crash landing where one day I woke up and realized what a game it was and you could have the best company in the world - You can have a company that just invented a pod that cures all disease and then BAM, they announce some accounting error (or dilution)and you watch your $$$ get drained....

The old way was to Buy and Hold good companies.... It was always difficult for me to let go and jump off the stock at the right time - And here I was again with PRGN...

OK.. No harm, no foul.. Live and learn.... Here's to "The New Way"....

Love the thread and all the input BTW...

 
Buckna said:
Bought 500 CGA @ $7.48.It's right around it's 20 day MA so I am hoping for a move up soon. Didn't buy more since there is some downside risk it could break below the 20 day.
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Sigh. Announced a shelf registration this morning to possibly dilute the stock in the future. Down 10%. I think it's an over reaction though and will average down here.Edit: Added 500 more @ $6.70. Avg cost now $7.09
 
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guru_007 said:
Otis said:
King of the Jungle said:
Otis said:
CHK premarket> hiPre-Market: 23.92 +1.00 (4.36%)
Click to expand...
I liked the pick so I jumped in for a small holding (50 shares). Do you have a price target in mind?
Click to expand...
My buddy determined, based on some serious analysis including on the unknown re: how much gas they have in the shale reserves (which he believes to be a larger amount than most, and that is supposedly pegged with 90% certainty) that this is ultimately an $80 stock. Short term, as in towards the end of the year, he expects $30. That's why I rolled on these options. We shall see.
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this is rich
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Why's that, sport.
 
Glad I didn't get to work until now or I'd have entered NEPH much earlier this morning. Will try to dump XOMA around 1.20 which would give me a decent profit from my basically 1.06 entry. Still holding a small position in HEB. Jumping into GNBT right now, going to try to ride the mo.

In GNBT .835

In for more at .8163

 
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CHK was one of the positions I held during the great market meltdown. Great company, but yeah, you are essentially betting on natural gas prices when you buy it.

 
Natural Gas Story

This year’s 31 percent decline in natural gas made it the worst performing commodity and the cheapest next to oil since the fall of the Soviet Union. That’s about to change, if history is any guide.

Natural gas lost 72 percent in 11 months as the U.S. fell into the deepest recession in 50 years and drillers failed to idle rigs fast enough to control inventories. Stockpiles are 22 percent larger than the five-year average, the Energy Department said. Oil costs 18 times more than gas, the biggest gap since 1992, when the collapse of communism cut supplies from Russia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News.

 
An article from Barron's my buddy sent me:

THE IDEA THAT NATURAL-GAS PRICES might be bottoming as winter waned, aired here at the end of February, was premature, to say the least.

While the downward thrust has slowed dramatically, the exchange-traded U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG), which tracks the commodity, has dropped 15%, from 17 and change at the time, to 14.56 currently, yielding to an oppressive excess of gas in storage and continued weak industrial demand. Yet as most other commodities -- including crude oil -- have sprinted higher in the broader weak-dollar/asset-reflation trade, the relative cheapness of gas has become much more glaring.

The ratio of a barrel of crude to a thousand cubic feet of natural gas last week rose above 18-to-1, a rather elevated level not seen since the 1990-'91 period.

This reflects the way that commodities that travel easily across the globe -- oil, crops, copper -- have been bid up aggressively by investors betting on another go-round of the "gluttonous China" trade, in which free money and fast Asian growth fuels a boom in materials. Natural gas remains a mostly regional good, especially as captured by the traded futures and the ETF.

Bespoke Investment Group points out that each of the three times the oil/gas ratio topped 18 in 1990-'91, it proved a good time to bet on gas relative to crude. Twice, the subsequent outperformance of gas was dramatic, the other time merely impressive. This probably won't go unnoticed too long, which could mean that it makes sense to own UNG outright, or versus a short position in the U.S. Oil Fund (USO).
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Link
 
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KGB said:
In KERX @1.21
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Same here.I'm holding off CHK, too unsure of what to expect. It is too cheap relative to oil, but that is what happens when long term supply>>demand
 
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Is there a clear reason I'm missing that many of you have chosen CHK over UNG? I'm just starting research on this, but is there something to this ETF that limits its short or long term upside? Is CHK, as a single company, a more immediate upside play?

 
Jene Bramel said:
Is there a clear reason I'm missing that many of you have chosen CHK over UNG? I'm just starting research on this, but is there something to this ETF that limits its short or long term upside? Is CHK, as a single company, a more immediate upside play?
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I was just going to ask the same question.
 
Got fully out of HEB at 2.90. Made about 75% on the stock overall. Too bad I only played like $150 on the deal.

Set a sell limit at 5.13 for PRGN. I'll take a hit, but it's worht it as PRGN seems to have limited upside in the next few weeks, or at least until 2Q earnings are out.

 
BassNBrew said:
Jene Bramel said:
Is there a clear reason I'm missing that many of you have chosen CHK over UNG? I'm just starting research on this, but is there something to this ETF that limits its short or long term upside? Is CHK, as a single company, a more immediate upside play?
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I was just going to ask the same question.
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Good question. I just sent it to my buddy. I wonder if there is some value to CHK over and above the commodity itself -- they own the equipment and technology needed to get it out of the ground, the reserves themselves, they can control the amount they are drilling, etc. I don't know if that makes it a safer play or makes it have more immediate upside, or if an increased demand in NG will be amplified in CHK's stock price. But I've passed the question along. My buddy is a real NG nerd and has been following this forever, and I'm sure he has thoughts. For completeness, here's an e-mail from him on CHK from last week:
CHK is worth $35-40. When it hitsthat is beyond me. I would think that we'd see $30 by year end, butwho knows.The value in CHK isn't reflected anywhere in the financials. You haveto dig deeper. It's obviously commodity driven, so expensive NatGasis good for them. Cheap is bad. They'll lose money when natgas ischeap and gain when it's expensive. They have hedges as well. Thevalue is in their reserves. Proved reserves are 12 trillion cubicfeet of gas in the ground and that should improve to about 20 trillioncubic feet by mid 2010 just from showing that they can pull it out ofthe ground. On top of that they have tons and tons of unprovedreserves (means that its likely there, but under 90% likely). If youdo the math, you can come up with replacement values of reservesaround $80 a share.
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