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Footballguy
Anarchy99 makes a good point up there, as Welker tapered off towards the end of the season but I think you're severely underestimating how much Peyton leans on Welker. Just some stats..Gordon was on a crappy offence last year and did pretty goodI think Welker can help you win, and he's definitely playing in a great offense. Gordon *might* play in a crappy offense. I get his value, but I wouldn't risk a starter for a chance at a guy who was great last year. I don't want to take that risk. If someone picked him up and ditched Welker, I'd be happy to pick Welker up and count myself fortunate.In the leagues where I picked up Gordon, I'm happy with the scrub I ditched to get him. It was the right price for me.Cliff Clavin said:Welker is a borderline WR3 in non-ppr. I'll drop him or any other borderline starter anytime for a shot at a potential top 5 WR. Welker isnt going to win you anything. Gordon can.Neil Beaufort Zod said:For me, Welker would be too much for a chance at Gordon's reinstatement. I don't think I'd drop Kelvin Benjamin for him. I did drop Mike Williams for him (not a great pick, anyway).I dropped Welker for him. Too much upside not to grab him. I absolutely drop Lattimer or Hunter for him.So do you drop a guy like Hunter or Latimer for this lottery ticket? Yeah I know-that's kind of an ACF Q-so in general where do you draw the line? We all know that if he plays he's a top 10 lock, but you can't drop solid WR2/3's on a pipe dream, but WR4/5's it's worth a shot I assume? I guess this is the million dollar question.
Welker could be the 3rd/4th option if he stays healthy and that isn't including Ball.
I don't want to make this about my team as no one cares. He was my WR4/5 with Benjamin. With the suspension and health risk it was an easy choice for me. I'll take a risk on the guy who lead WRs in PPG last year over a guy who I'll be spot starting. The upside is just too much.
D. Thomas saw 140 targets in 16 games, 21 RZ targets
Decker saw 135 targets in 16 games, 25 RZ targets
Welker saw 110 targets in 13 games, 24 RZ targets
J. Thomas saw 90 targets in 14 games, 19 RZ targets
If you extrapolate Welker's targets over a full season, he would have seen the same amount of targets as Decker (135) and more RZ looks ~29. With Decker gone, a healthy Welker wouldn't be considered the 3rd or 4th option in this offense and based on last years #s, he'd likely be the #1 RZ target. I believe the #1 RZ target in a Peyton Manning lead offense can win you a season. Granted, I don't value him higher than Gordon (no one should) but he's also someone I wouldn't even debate dropping either; especially over a rookie who will likely draw double coverage on a passing offense that's projected to be anemic.
To be honest I haven't checked out every single one of my leagues but I'm assuming he's going to be available in some. I never even debated drafting him this year and I'm going to assume there were leagues where other managers shared the same sentiment. You last stat confirms my suspicion.i guess i just saw some outliers. fwiw, i post on another board with a draft thread and plenty of completed ffpc drafts were posted and he was taken in every one. however, i just checked the end of august fpc adp for subscribers and it reports that tho his adp was 226, he was only drafted in 87 of the last 218 drafts. thats just amazing to me.He's available in my FFPC league. We drafted three days ago.hes really available in an ffpc? out of the 10 leagues i wither entered or witnessed he went at the latest in the 13th. even the draft the day before the season started, when his value was lowest, he went in the 10th. back in early august he went in the 9th. hes def worth the whole roll minus a few dollars for kicker and d transactions.You guys are making me jealous that you can make any kind of WW moves right now. In FFPC we can't do #### until next week and even then FAAB all but guarantees that someone is going to blow their entire budget if Gordon is available. I want to gamble!