Someone thinks far too highly of Lacy, good god.
bostonfred said:
exactly on pace for the numbers he put up with manning, which are exactly on pace with the numbers dez has put up.
Define "exactly".
Decker:
W/Orton: 3.1/41.3/0.55
W/Manning: 5.37/73.5/0.75
Dez: 4.9/ 69.55/0.68
In four games with Orton, Decker had 20 receptions for 270 yards and 4 TDs. That's a pace for 5/67.8/1.0, to use your nomenclature, or 80 receptions for 1080 yards and 16 TDs. Which is about as close to the exact same pace as 85/1064/13 and 87/1288/11 as you can get.
By comparison, Dez had 93/1233/13 last season, which is almost exactly what Decker did last year. Now, obviously most people don't compare Dez and Decker in terms of talent. But I don't score points for people's perception of talent. There are a lot of guys doing what Dez is doing. And if Dez changes quarterbacks in a couple years, either because Romo (who I own in dynasty and like) retires or his back gives him problems or Jerry pulls the trigger on the next Manziel that comes along or whatever it is... then they go back to the drawing board at QB. Fitz, Reggie Wayne (in the no QB season), Randy Moss (in Oakland), and others have shown time and again that even very talented receivers need to have something at QB to play.
As for projecting Lacy as a top five RB for the next six years, that would go through his age 29 season. Seven years would be age 30. During that time, he should continue to:
1) be on the same team (one which is notorious for signing its own free agents instead of going outside the organization),
2) be on a top offense (and likely will be since they have Rodgers and they keep investing in offense),
3) get goal line looks as a runner and receiver,
4) get 40+ receptions (he got 35 as a rookie in 14 games which is exactly pace for 40), and
5) face limited competition (since both backups who got time last year looked great, then hardly sniffed the ball once Lacy was back on the field).
But all that said, the point is not how high I am on Lacy (I'm obviously higher on him than you and ghost) nor how low I am on Dez (I agree that he's more talented than Decker even if the stats don't really bear that out). The point is that the handful of true feature RBs who get the overwhelming majority of carries, can catch and can score TDs are extremely valuable, and the young ones are basically just McCoy, Murray and Lacy. And Lacy is the youngest of the three by a couple years. Maybe Sankey and Hyde join that mix soon, maybe not. By the time Christine Michael is playing, he won't be young anymore. Bernard is young and studly, but not a true feature back. Bell looked good when healthy, but the Steelers just brought in one of the better free agent RBs this offseason in Blount and we have no way of knowing what their plans are for that split. Devonta Freeman? I love him, but he doesn't seem like a true feature back. Gerhart? Even if you're extremely high on him, at 27, he isn't even young anymore. So if you don't get a guy like Lacy, who are the other true young stud RBs right now?
Now ask the same question about WRs. If you don't get a guy like Dez Bryant, who are the other stud WRs right now? There's ten guys who scored about the same as Dez last year. And while three of them - Gordon, Decker and DJax - have dropped significantly in dynasty value since then, at least three more - Watkins, Evans and Patterson - have popped up to replace them in dynasty rankings. Then after that there are a couple dozen guys who are in striking distance. It's hard not to be loaded at WR in leagues these days. It's almost impossible to be loaded at RB. And giving up the youngest of the best of the bunch AND a first for a receiver just makes no sense to me.
