1.03 can define itself all it wants, I still think that is good value for 1.03 this year. It terms of physical gifts, what RB in this class compares to Michael?Green in a TE premium isn't too shabby himself.
If Michael and Green were in the rookie pool this year, given their current situations, I think Michael is a top 3 (if not the top) RB and Green is a top 2 TE. Plus you get the lottery ticket at 3.02 (could have been Jordan Reed last year, low probability but a chance).
Given needs at RB/TE, I think this was a really good deal IMHO.
Would you trade LeVeon Bell for that haul? Or Patterson? Or Gio? Or Lacy? Or eve Ball?
Hyde, Hill, Sankey, and company might not be sexy now.
But slap a 2nd round NFL draft tag on them and things change--just like it did for Ball and Bell, who never in the top 5 mix prior to draft night.
Michael is a 3rd string NFL RB. He couldn't beat out Robert Turbin for playing time.
I know that his potential is appealing--but he's not a top 2 RB in this class. Not even close. His ADP will fall after the new rookies come into play--many with much better situations. You can think Michael is the talent that Bell is, and many would agree. But look at the ADP gap, which is justified. Talent doesn't score points while it's not on the field. Michael has a fight for RB2 duties, and we're comparing him to young, starting RBs. I don't think that's wise.
Last year was a banner year for 2nd round RBs, However, the slightly longer track record is not nearly as good.
2012
Isaiah Pead
LaMichael James
2011
Ryan Williams
Shane Vereen
Mikel Leshoure
Daniel Thomas
We also saw Mark Ingram and David Wilson in the late 1st in those 2 drafts (and Doug Martin if I am not cherry picking).
And while the big 4 RBs are going for nice price tags right now, I don't think it is unreasonable to assume 1 or 2 are going to have their ADP plummet by this time next year.
So if my choice is Hyde/Carey/top drafted RB vs. Michael and Green in a TE premium, I'm taking the latter.
I also think that on physical ability Michael is indeed not close to the top 2, he is far and away the best. Not that there is any guarantee that he ultimately becomes relevant, but there is a chance a young "starter" doesn't either. He is worth less than 1.03 in my mind at the moment, but adding Green in a TE premium tips the scales for me.
@MoveToSkypager - I can understand that take.
ETA: Where Bell and Ball were ranked pre-draft is probably not relevant to the larger discussion. But I am looking at one individual's pre-draft rankings where he had them 3 and 4. So I don't think those were as far off as you state.
TLDR 2nd round RBs = big hits last year, not necessarily true on a go forward basis though given historical track record.