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***Official 2023 Pro Cycling Thread*** - The Vuelta will be a Primoz, Vigo, G, Remco mosh pit (2 Viewers)

saw a picture of WvA in civilian clothes and he's such a normal sized dude - looked it up, 6'2-3/4" 172

it's just funny bc next to Jonas in a skin suit you think "whoa that dude is an absolute unit"

Jonas is tiny (5-8-58" & 132) but has massive thighs
On the bike Spartacus looked like a freakin' monster. Then you see him next to regular guys and you realize he weighed 180.
 

Final End-of-Tour Classification Points​

The following points are scored at the end of the contest, based on final finishing positions in the main overall classifications.

Final Overall General Classification

These points are given out in addition to the Daily points given out for GC positions after the final stage.

Position​
Points​
1st​
600​
2nd​
500​
3rd​
400​
4th​
350​
5th​
300​
6th​
260​
7th​
220​
8th​
200​
9th​
180​
10th​
160​
11th​
140​
12th​
130​
13th​
120​
14th​
110​
15th​
100​
16th​
90​
17th​
80​
18th​
70​
19th​
60​
20th​
55​
21st​
50​
22nd​
45​
23rd​
40​
24th​
35​
25th​
30​
26th​
25​
27th​
20​
28th​
15​
29th​
10​
30th​
5​

Final Points Classification

These points are given out in addition to the Daily points given out for points classification positions after the final stage.

Position​
Points​
1st​
120​
2nd​
100​
3rd​
80​
4th​
60​
5th​
40​
6th​
30​
7th​
20​
8th​
15​
9th​
10​
10th​
5​

Final Mountains Classification

These points are given out in addition to the Daily points given out for mountains classification positions after the final stage.

Position​
Points​
1st​
120​
2nd​
100​
3rd​
80​
4th​
60​
5th​
40​
6th​
30​
7th​
20​
8th​
15​
9th​
10​
10th​
5​

Final Baby Making Classification

These points are given out in addition to the Daily points given out for Assists for the final stage. Riders must be classified as finishing the final stage of racing to qualify for these points.

Position​
Points​
1st​
5000​
2nd​
4000​
3rd​
3000​
4th​
2000​
5th​
1000​
 
LE FBG TDF STAGE WINS
  1. Da Raiders (1)
  2. BassNBrew
  3. BobbyLayne
  4. BobbyLayne
  5. sammy3469
  6. BobbyLayne
  7. BobbyLayne
  8. sammy3469 (2)
  9. Jaysus
  10. BassNBrew
  11. BobbyLayne
  12. cheeseypoof
  13. BobbyLayne
  14. cheeseypoof
  15. cheeseypoof (3)
  16. BassNBrew
  17. BassNBrew (4)
  18. BobbyLayne (7)
  19. Jaysus (2)

TEAM ROSTER​

ALT-TJV.png
Vingegaard
44 pts
UAD.png
Pogačar
38 pts
LTD.png
Van Gils
0 pts
BOH.png
Buchmann
1 pts
ADC.png
Philipsen
154 pts
ALT-TBV.png
Mohorič
222 pts
ACT.png
Peters
2 pts
COF.png
Perez
0 pts
ADC.png
Van Der Poel
40 pts
 
Power Estimation for the Stage 16 ITT

Over the last few days, we've all seen crazy estimated power numbers being thrown around for Vingegaard's ascent of Domancy during the Stage 16 TT. 7.6 W/kg is a popular number, but I've seen comments here and elsewhere claiming 8 W/kg as well.

The use of a TT bike, disc wheel, skin suit, aerobars, etc. make power estimation here much more difficult than on a long, sustained alpine climb where speeds are lower and aero matters commensurately less.

The trifurcation of the climb also makes power estimation tricky:

Segment 1, 1.45 km at 7.8%, was ridden by Jonas at 25kph. Here, aero drag makes up about 13% of total power demands.

Segment 2, 1.1km at 10.6%, was ridden by Jonas at ~20kph. Here, aero drag makes up about 6% of total power demands.

Segment 3, 3.5km at 5.2%, was ridden by Jonas at 32kph. Here, aero drag makes up about 25% of total power demands.

We can see, then, how small changes in assumptions on CdA, for example, might have large repercussions on our final numbers, especially over the shallower, high-speed Segment 3.

I thought it might be helpful to put pen to paper to show some of the raw calculations and how varying inputs affect W/kg estimates. To that end, I've put together the following presentation walking through my own process for modeling Jonas' estimated power for the Domancy climb.

The Course: climbing Domancy to Combloux
The course as-ridden is largely the same as shown on La Flamme Rouge and other sites; there was a small change in the location of T2 that reduced total elevation gain by ~11 meters, but this effect is small over the 6.05km course.

The components of power
Power demands are made up of three factors: air resistance, rolling resistance, and gravity. The rider must meet these demands to climb at a given speed, and there is some power lost through the drivetrain.

Components of air resistance & key assumptions
Air resistance, as we will see later, is more important on this climb than usual given the shallow back-half of the climb and the TT equipment used by most competitors. To estimate air density, I used local weather data from the time of the Stage 16 TT. FWIW, Neilson Powless' Strava has the temperature for the climb at 91F as well.

Components of rolling resistance & key assumptions
Rolling resistance is relatively straightforward. Bicyclerollingresistance.com publishes Crr test data for most top tires; I've seen bike reviews for Jonas' S5 that mention his use of Vittoria Corsa Speeds, so I assumed he put the same tires on his P5. PCS provided Jonas' weight and Escape Collective, helpfully, provided an estimate for the weight of his P5 in an article written before the Stage 16 TT.

The course as ridden (T3 to finish: all aerobars, all the time
There is a significant aero difference (especially as speed increases) between climbing on aerobars and climbing on the bullhorns. I reviewed the GCN broadcast to estimate Jonas' position throughout the TT. The biggest question mark is between 5.2km and 4.6km. At some point off-camera, he transitions to bullhorns, but it is not clear when. I modeled Segment 1 with a CdA of 0.20, reflecting his use of aerobars, and Segment 2 with a CdA of 0.30, reflecting his use of bullhorns during the steep sections.

Putting it all together: base case CdA, as ridden
Crucially, after the T3 hairpin, Jonas is never again seen on the bullhorns. As his speed increases to ~32kph, he gets back into the aerobars and stays there. I modeled this whole Segment with a CdA of 0.20.

Doing the math for the above gets us 7.0 eW/kg over the 13:21 effort.

The remainder of the post (which I urge you to read) changes the assumptions and compares it to other climbs to stress-test the numbers.

In one of his replies, the author had this to say about the LRPC blog posts that both @BassNBrew and I linked earlier this week.

Here’s a thought experiment for everyone:

We have two climbs, Asturiana and Domancy.

Asturiana - 7.5km, 6.39%, ridden by Jonas on a road bike at 27.44kph.

Lanterne Rouge tells us he did 7.01 W/kg for 16m24.

Domancy - 6.05km, 6.84%, ridden by Jonas on a TT bike, 4.95km in aerobars, at 27.19kph.

Lanterne Rouge tells us he did 7.6 W/kg for 13m21.

Another response in the discussion:

I don’t understand how Jonas did 7.01w/kg up Asturiana at 27.44kph on a road bike (according to Lanterne Rouge) but 7.6w/kg up Domancy at 27.19kph on a TT bike, 83% in aerobars.

This analysis is only for the climb, and his peak modeled power was while climbing in the bullhorns.

If you extend the model to include the rest of the TT, W/kg drops significantly - basically 6.2 for 19’ and then 7.0 for 13’, with 3-5 of those minutes in the bullhorns.


Jonas would have had to do 400-418 watts in the aero position up the climb; let's throw out the 422w because he was on the bullhorns.

Remco did 392W in the Algarve TT before he removed the power data from his Strava file; he's 61kg and arguably not as strong as Jonas. This would seem to support 400-418 as being achievable.
 
The problem is that 7 in any setting isn’t normal even for the best. This gets back to the whole, “they’re all juicing” line of thought, Jonas is just juicing better.
 
The problem is that 7 in any setting isn’t normal even for the best. This gets back to the whole, “they’re all juicing” line of thought, Jonas is just juicing better.

Fair enough. It's at least as suspicious as Pogi dropping Jonas on Puy de Dome at slightly higher VAM for even longer, or Pogi doing 6.97 up Col d’Eze for two minutes longer. Or Remco doing 6.9 up Lo Port for 24 minutes.

Also, to get Jonas to even 7.1, you have to assume Jonas has a worse CdA than Wout, who has 18 kg on him. The whole point is it def was the 7.6 w/kg LR claimed earlier this week.

Jonas entered the climb at 40kph+ (Neilson on a road bike crossed T2 at 46 kph). That’s a ton of kinetic energy - almost 3% of the energy spent fighting gravity on the climb. Taking this into account drops his W/kg up the 6-minute climb by roughly 0.2. This would make it a 6.8 W/kg effort.

Is 6.8 W/kg for 13:21 still suspicious?

Car service is here. See you guys next week.
 
Congrats @cheeseypoof of the stage win

SCORING DETAILS: STAGE 20​

Team​
Cost​
Active​
Stg​
GC​
PC​
KOM​
Spr​
Sum​
Bky​
***​
Tot​
Jonas Vingegaard
Jumbo-Visma​
26​
160​
30​
2​
6​
1​
10​
-​
8​
217
Tadej Pogačar
UAE Team Emirates​
24​
220​
26​
4​
2​
-​
6​
-​
6​
264
Julian Alaphilippe
Soudal - Quick Step​
10​
-​
-​
-​
-​
6​
-​
-​
-​
6
Sepp Kuss
Jumbo-Visma​
8​
-​
9​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
18​
27
Dylan Groenewegen
Team Jayco AlUla​
10​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
0
Lawson Craddock
Team Jayco AlUla​
4​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
0
Alex Kirsch
Lidl - Trek​
4​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
0
Tony Gallopin
Lidl - Trek​
4​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
-​
0
Thibaut Pinot
Groupama - FDJ​
10​
95​
10​
-​
-​
-​
15​
20​
-​
140
 
LE FBG TDF STAGE WINS
  1. Da Raiders (1)
  2. BassNBrew
  3. BobbyLayne
  4. BobbyLayne
  5. sammy3469
  6. BobbyLayne
  7. BobbyLayne
  8. sammy3469 (2)
  9. Jaysus
  10. BassNBrew
  11. BobbyLayne
  12. cheeseypoof
  13. BobbyLayne
  14. cheeseypoof
  15. cheeseypoof (3)
  16. BassNBrew
  17. BassNBrew (4)
  18. BobbyLayne (7)
  19. Jaysus (2)
  20. cheeseypoof (4)
 
Final Results:

LE FBG TDF​

  • OVERALL RACE (CLASSIC LEADERBOARD)
    CLASSIC LEADERBOARD
 
Jonas added to the start list for the Vuelta a Espana. I looked after they talked about on the Peacock telecast and he's listed.

Jumbo-Visma (WT)


That's too many rider obviously, so 2 are not participating.
Kuss doing three grand tours in a year...nothing suspicious about that.

He’s only had 56 race days so far this year, 2 GTs and 2 one week races. That’s lighter than most.
 
Can’t wait for @BobbyLayne to get back and see the results, well done!

this is too fun. I guess I’ll keep dumb *** peacock for the veulta

Caught about 30 seconds of Stage 21 (bunch sprint.) Knew Kuss crashed bad Saturday& dropped 3 places in GC. No idea how this worked out for me lol.
You won?

At the Tour celebrations in Copenhagen yesterday

Jonas: I was surprised I won the ITT so convincingly...
Mads: Excuse me...Jonas is full of **** right now
 
Can’t wait for @BobbyLayne to get back and see the results, well done!

this is too fun. I guess I’ll keep dumb *** peacock for the veulta

Caught about 30 seconds of Stage 21 (bunch sprint.) Knew Kuss crashed bad Saturday& dropped 3 places in GC. No idea how this worked out for me lol.
You won?

At the Tour celebrations in Copenhagen yesterday

Jonas: I was surprised I won the ITT so convincingly...
Mads: Excuse me...Jonas is full of **** right now

Mads is officially my new favorite rider.
 
guess Worlds are only on FloBikes? they also have the rights to Tour de Pologne.

$30 for a month, didn’t find any deals - will be watching highlights until the Vuelta.
 
Anybody interested in doing a Velogames Tour de Pologne?

Ineos is sending a strong team to this one...

wonder how many of those riders will join Geraint and Filippo Ganna at the Vuleta

wish I could watch the Donostia San Sebastian Klasikoa tomorrow - best summer classic and better overall startlist
 

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