Official 2024 Kentucky Derby Thread (1 Viewer)

[Judge Smails]

Don't see that OTB Lifer has started a thread yet this year. Bunch of us talk horses in another thread but this should have it's own as many recreational people will lay down a few nickels on the Derby. By the way - if you've never been it's a bucket list trip if you do it right. Time of our life 2 years ago.

OK - let's start with the throwouts to narrow the contenders. Of the 20 starters I have 12 complete throwouts and 3 others I'm on the fence on. These horses are either too slow, wrong style, backed up in their last, etc.

Dornoch
Mystik Dan
Catalytic
TO Password
Track Phantom
West Saratoga
Domestic Product
Grand Mo the First
Resilience
Society Man
Epic Ride
Stronghold (never even ran a 90 Beyer and very weak year for California)

That's 12 that I'm totally confident won't find any part of the superfecta. Gets you to 8. The 3 I'm on the fence are and will only use lightly:

Just a Touch - Sierra Leone blew by him at 1 1/8 miles and going another 1/8 doesn't bode well. Only way he sticks around is if some of the other speed doesn't get out there. Likely to get cooked by Fierceness. Possible to get a minor award but doubt it. He was all out and don't see him repeating.

Forever Young - any horse that's 5-5 at longer distance and has Sunday Silence/Deep Impact blood is hard to throw out. Trying the Japan/Dubai leap which hasn't worked yet and I'm not blown away by his works. On a few saver tickets at most

Endlessly - this one is a bit more interesting to me. 5 out of 6 and he did OK in Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf from a wide post. Loss by 3 1/2 which is not disgraceful. All other races he closed with a rush. The issue? All on turf or synthetic. Normally that would be a toss for me. And Oscar Performance/Kitten's Joy/Langfur screams turf. But he's working very well on the dirt (at least by times, I'll have to read workout reports to see if he did it easily, got over the ground, etc.). Often these horses can't deal with dirt kickback so it's a question mark. Could run big or last. But he's not an auto toss for me to get a piece.

That leaves 5 to discuss in all slots:

Fierceness - if he breaks clean on the outside and rates a bit he could air, especially if Sierra Leone has any traffic trouble which is likely. If you're taking a big swing though you could toss him on a few tickets, hope he breaks poorly and spits the bit. He's done that twice already. So he's not a machine. Things have to go his way.

Sierra Leone - Logical winner if Fierceness doesn't fire. Will relish the 1 1/4, always closes with a rush. Came from dead last like a freight train in the Blue Grass. Race was a bit of a set up as so many horses went early. Still, should be plenty of pace in this one and If Tyler gets a good trip he will be a menace in the stretch

Catching Freedom - Benefit of having Prat. Never run a bad one. Both losses had legitimate issues, including in tight and getting stymied at the 16th pole. Has the right finishing style and was only 1 1/4 lengths behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star - and he had trouble. Fast enough with a 97 Beyer. If he gets a great trip and Fierceness or Sierra Leone don't he could win. Heck - he might win anyway. Loved the way he calmly rated in last and then just went wide and inhaled em. Best value in the field at 8-1 ML.

Just Steel - can't see him winning but he'll be underneath in all slots for me. Grinder who has tactical speed and can finish a bit as shown vs. Muth in the Arkansas Derby. I like that no horses passed him in the stretch and he was gaining a bit on Muth through the stretch. Lukas has a foundation in him and knows how to get horses ready for the Derby. Will have to avoid getting pinballed at the start from the 6 hole and get in good position. If he does I think he's in the super and will bet him hard in exactas/tri's. Just hope K. Asmussen can be poised in this huge of a race.

Honor Marie - has run 3 good races at CD. Only bad race in the slop in the Risen Star. Only got beat a length to Catching Freedom in the LA Derby. He got a great trip and was all out as the speed died so don't love him. He's an underneath play for me only. Not sure if Curtis can get it done as a jockey in this big of a race but I bet the horse - less so the jockey. But these are low percentage connections so at least you'll get a big price.

In summary - these 5 will be on all my tickets. I really think only Fierceness, Sierra Leone or Catching Freedom can win the race unless Forever Young overcomes all obstacles and delivers. I don't think Fierceness nor Sierra Leone will be value enough for me to play straight. Not going to bet either at current 5/2-3/1. If Catching Freedom stays anywhere near 8-1 he will be a win bet. Maybe a saver only on Forever Young as a backup, but he won't be a key play. Otherwise I'll just hone in on verticals with my top 3 in the win slot and them plus Just Steel for sure and less Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Endlessly and maybe Forever Young also underneath in exactas, tri's and supers.

Looking forward to other opinions from my handicapping amigos. We've hit this several times - let's go!

 

[urbanhack]

Out - can’t make it this year guys.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

That's 12 that I'm totally confident won't find any part of the superfecta.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

 

[shuke]

 

[CGRdrJoe]

seahorn

 

[shadrap]

Thanks Judge. Please keep posting on this when you have time.
Love it.

 

[Ron Swanson]

Yes, thank you. I don't have any knowledge that is worth sharing but I do enjoy the insights for my occasional betting forays.

 

[Chemical X]

i keep going back to stronghold for some reason. has won at CD. 6: 3-3-0. 2 losses at under a mile. last race was virtually identical to sierra leone’s. what i like from stronghold as compared to SL is being a bit more forward placed. i think SL is likely my 2nd choice, but swinging around maybe 18 horses is gonna need a pretty perfect ride. if stronghold is closer i think he won’t allow SL to pass. i am dumping the japanese shippers, cause let them prove me wrong. i am dumping fierceness cause i just have a feeling the horse will find a way to not like the crowd and the track.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Chance of Tstorms Friday , some sun 80 Saturday

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Don't see that OTB Lifer has started a thread yet this year. Bunch of us talk horses in another thread but this should have it's own as many recreational people will lay down a few nickels on the Derby. By the way - if you've never been it's a bucket list trip if you do it right. Time of our life 2 years ago.

OK - let's start with the throwouts to narrow the contenders. Of the 20 starters I have 12 complete throwouts and 3 others I'm on the fence on. These horses are either too slow, wrong style, backed up in their last, etc.

Dornoch
Mystik Dan
Catalytic
TO Password
Track Phantom
West Saratoga
Domestic Product
Grand Mo the First
Resilience
Society Man
Epic Ride
Stronghold (never even ran a 90 Beyer and very weak year for California)

That's 12 that I'm totally confident won't find any part of the superfecta. Gets you to 8. The 3 I'm on the fence are and will only use lightly:

Just a Touch - Sierra Leone blew by him at 1 1/8 miles and going another 1/8 doesn't bode well. Only way he sticks around is if some of the other speed doesn't get out there. Likely to get cooked by Fierceness. Possible to get a minor award but doubt it. He was all out and don't see him repeating.

Forever Young - any horse that's 5-5 at longer distance and has Sunday Silence/Deep Impact blood is hard to throw out. Trying the Japan/Dubai leap which hasn't worked yet and I'm not blown away by his works. On a few saver tickets at most

Endlessly - this one is a bit more interesting to me. 5 out of 6 and he did OK in Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf from a wide post. Loss by 3 1/2 which is not disgraceful. All other races he closed with a rush. The issue? All on turf or synthetic. Normally that would be a toss for me. And Oscar Performance/Kitten's Joy/Langfur screams turf. But he's working very well on the dirt (at least by times, I'll have to read workout reports to see if he did it easily, got over the ground, etc.). Often these horses can't deal with dirt kickback so it's a question mark. Could run big or last. But he's not an auto toss for me to get a piece.

That leaves 5 to discuss in all slots:

Fierceness - if he breaks clean on the outside and rates a bit he could air, especially if Sierra Leone has any traffic trouble which is likely. If you're taking a big swing though you could toss him on a few tickets, hope he breaks poorly and spits the bit. He's done that twice already. So he's not a machine. Things have to go his way.

Sierra Leone - Logical winner if Fierceness doesn't fire. Will relish the 1 1/4, always closes with a rush. Came from dead last like a freight train in the Blue Grass. Race was a bit of a set up as so many horses went early. Still, should be plenty of pace in this one and If Tyler gets a good trip he will be a menace in the stretch

Catching Freedom - Benefit of having Prat. Never run a bad one. Both losses had legitimate issues, including in tight and getting stymied at the 16th pole. Has the right finishing style and was only 1 1/4 lengths behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star - and he had trouble. Fast enough with a 97 Beyer. If he gets a great trip and Fierceness or Sierra Leone don't he could win. Heck - he might win anyway. Loved the way he calmly rated in last and then just went wide and inhaled em. Best value in the field at 8-1 ML.

Just Steel - can't see him winning but he'll be underneath in all slots for me. Grinder who has tactical speed and can finish a bit as shown vs. Muth in the Arkansas Derby. I like that no horses passed him in the stretch and he was gaining a bit on Muth through the stretch. Lukas has a foundation in him and knows how to get horses ready for the Derby. Will have to avoid getting pinballed at the start from the 6 hole and get in good position. If he does I think he's in the super and will bet him hard in exactas/tri's. Just hope K. Asmussen can be poised in this huge of a race.

Honor Marie - has run 3 good races at CD. Only bad race in the slop in the Risen Star. Only got beat a length to Catching Freedom in the LA Derby. He got a great trip and was all out as the speed died so don't love him. He's an underneath play for me only. Not sure if Curtis can get it done as a jockey in this big of a race but I bet the horse - less so the jockey. But these are low percentage connections so at least you'll get a big price.

In summary - these 5 will be on all my tickets. I really think only Fierceness, Sierra Leone or Catching Freedom can win the race unless Forever Young overcomes all obstacles and delivers. I don't think Fierceness nor Sierra Leone will be value enough for me to play straight. Not going to bet either at current 5/2-3/1. If Catching Freedom stays anywhere near 8-1 he will be a win bet. Maybe a saver only on Forever Young as a backup, but he won't be a key play. Otherwise I'll just hone in on verticals with my top 3 in the win slot and them plus Just Steel for sure and less Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Endlessly and maybe Forever Young also underneath in exactas, tri's and supers.

Looking forward to other opinions from my handicapping amigos. We've hit this several times - let's go!

Mystic Dan off a bit of a bad trip last time. Has run 3 digit beyer. McPeek/Hernandez are no joke and hit at nice prices…training pretty darn well at Churchill. I’ll have him on top some.

He’s not slow, didn’t back up in his last, doesn’t have the wrong style…not picking on your post…just wondering why you are tossing?

 

[Phil Elliott]

By starting position:
1. Dornoch - out fast, poor starting position, better times as 2-year-old
2. Sierra Leone - nose away from 4-0, from #2 will probably have to pass 17 others
3. Mystic Dan - best mudder, rain will be day early
4. Catching Freedom - colt improving times, late closer like Sierra Leone
5. Catalytic - lightly raced, lost to Fierceness by 13 lengths
6. Just Steel - top 3 in last 5 of 6, most raced horse in field so may have already peaked
7. Honor Marie - 1st @ Churchill Downs twice, becoming "cool" choice
8. Just A Choice - no 2-year-old races, passed by Sierra Leone last race
9. Encinitas - scr
10. T O Password - Japan, undefeated (only 2 races), early lead
11. Forever Young - Japan colt 5-0, Sierra Leone in extended family
12. Track Phantom - early leader, passed in last two races
13. West Saratoga - fastest time on synthetic track, slowest in field
14. Endlessly - 5-1but this is first race on dirt
15. Domestic Product - well rested=rusty?
16. Uncle Mo the First - can't finish higher than 3rd
17. Fierceness - fastest horse, alternating race performance means bad Derby run
18. Stronghold - never worst than 2nd, but slower times than the field's best
19. Resilience - distance ok with improving times, but lost jockey to Fierceness
20. Society Man - was 2nd in Wood Memorial at 106-1, but other two races were awful
21. Epic Ride - speed trending up, in front early but won't hang with the leaders
22. Mugatu - Never finished above third on last six races

ETA - Society Man was second, not first in Wood Memorial.

 

[Judge Smails]

i keep going back to stronghold for some reason. has won at CD. 6: 3-3-0. 2 losses at under a mile. last race was virtually identical to sierra leone’s. what i like from stronghold as compared to SL is being a bit more forward placed. i think SL is likely my 2nd choice, but swinging around maybe 18 horses is gonna need a pretty perfect ride. if stronghold is closer i think he won’t allow SL to pass. i am dumping the japanese shippers, cause let them prove me wrong. i am dumping fierceness cause i just have a feeling the horse will find a way to not like the crowd and the track.

I hear you. I'm usually all over the California horses because I see them first hand. But this year's crop who raced at Santa Anita were the weakest I can ever remember. The top contenders shipped, including Muth to the Arkansas Derby. While I like Stronghold's style, he is just not fast. Top Beyer of 89. I think that may be 2nd or 3rd lowest of the 20 starters. He'd have to improve a ton. Good post, so I think he'll run his race, but just not fast enough to me. Also, he has Jimmy Creed on his under side. Pure sprinter. He was all out at 1 1/8 and with that sprinter in his bloodlines I'm not sure he'll get 1 1/4 miles.

Mike Welsch said that of the Japanese horses T.O. Password, the longshot with all of 2 starts, looks better than Forever Young. So I'm with you on likely tossing both.

I agree with Fierceness. He's the type who could win easily or be done turning for home. Could light up the toteboard it that latter happens.

 

[Judge Smails]

Don't see that OTB Lifer has started a thread yet this year. Bunch of us talk horses in another thread but this should have it's own as many recreational people will lay down a few nickels on the Derby. By the way - if you've never been it's a bucket list trip if you do it right. Time of our life 2 years ago.

OK - let's start with the throwouts to narrow the contenders. Of the 20 starters I have 12 complete throwouts and 3 others I'm on the fence on. These horses are either too slow, wrong style, backed up in their last, etc.

Dornoch
Mystik Dan
Catalytic
TO Password
Track Phantom
West Saratoga
Domestic Product
Grand Mo the First
Resilience
Society Man
Epic Ride
Stronghold (never even ran a 90 Beyer and very weak year for California)

That's 12 that I'm totally confident won't find any part of the superfecta. Gets you to 8. The 3 I'm on the fence are and will only use lightly:

Just a Touch - Sierra Leone blew by him at 1 1/8 miles and going another 1/8 doesn't bode well. Only way he sticks around is if some of the other speed doesn't get out there. Likely to get cooked by Fierceness. Possible to get a minor award but doubt it. He was all out and don't see him repeating.

Forever Young - any horse that's 5-5 at longer distance and has Sunday Silence/Deep Impact blood is hard to throw out. Trying the Japan/Dubai leap which hasn't worked yet and I'm not blown away by his works. On a few saver tickets at most

Endlessly - this one is a bit more interesting to me. 5 out of 6 and he did OK in Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf from a wide post. Loss by 3 1/2 which is not disgraceful. All other races he closed with a rush. The issue? All on turf or synthetic. Normally that would be a toss for me. And Oscar Performance/Kitten's Joy/Langfur screams turf. But he's working very well on the dirt (at least by times, I'll have to read workout reports to see if he did it easily, got over the ground, etc.). Often these horses can't deal with dirt kickback so it's a question mark. Could run big or last. But he's not an auto toss for me to get a piece.

That leaves 5 to discuss in all slots:

Fierceness - if he breaks clean on the outside and rates a bit he could air, especially if Sierra Leone has any traffic trouble which is likely. If you're taking a big swing though you could toss him on a few tickets, hope he breaks poorly and spits the bit. He's done that twice already. So he's not a machine. Things have to go his way.

Sierra Leone - Logical winner if Fierceness doesn't fire. Will relish the 1 1/4, always closes with a rush. Came from dead last like a freight train in the Blue Grass. Race was a bit of a set up as so many horses went early. Still, should be plenty of pace in this one and If Tyler gets a good trip he will be a menace in the stretch

Catching Freedom - Benefit of having Prat. Never run a bad one. Both losses had legitimate issues, including in tight and getting stymied at the 16th pole. Has the right finishing style and was only 1 1/4 lengths behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star - and he had trouble. Fast enough with a 97 Beyer. If he gets a great trip and Fierceness or Sierra Leone don't he could win. Heck - he might win anyway. Loved the way he calmly rated in last and then just went wide and inhaled em. Best value in the field at 8-1 ML.

Just Steel - can't see him winning but he'll be underneath in all slots for me. Grinder who has tactical speed and can finish a bit as shown vs. Muth in the Arkansas Derby. I like that no horses passed him in the stretch and he was gaining a bit on Muth through the stretch. Lukas has a foundation in him and knows how to get horses ready for the Derby. Will have to avoid getting pinballed at the start from the 6 hole and get in good position. If he does I think he's in the super and will bet him hard in exactas/tri's. Just hope K. Asmussen can be poised in this huge of a race.

Honor Marie - has run 3 good races at CD. Only bad race in the slop in the Risen Star. Only got beat a length to Catching Freedom in the LA Derby. He got a great trip and was all out as the speed died so don't love him. He's an underneath play for me only. Not sure if Curtis can get it done as a jockey in this big of a race but I bet the horse - less so the jockey. But these are low percentage connections so at least you'll get a big price.

In summary - these 5 will be on all my tickets. I really think only Fierceness, Sierra Leone or Catching Freedom can win the race unless Forever Young overcomes all obstacles and delivers. I don't think Fierceness nor Sierra Leone will be value enough for me to play straight. Not going to bet either at current 5/2-3/1. If Catching Freedom stays anywhere near 8-1 he will be a win bet. Maybe a saver only on Forever Young as a backup, but he won't be a key play. Otherwise I'll just hone in on verticals with my top 3 in the win slot and them plus Just Steel for sure and less Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Endlessly and maybe Forever Young also underneath in exactas, tri's and supers.

Looking forward to other opinions from my handicapping amigos. We've hit this several times - let's go!

Mystic Dan off a bit of a bad trip last time. Has run 3 digit beyer. McPeek/Hernandez are no joke and hit at nice prices…training pretty darn well at Churchill. I’ll have him on top some.

He’s not slow, didn’t back up in his last, doesn’t have the wrong style…not picking on your post…just wondering why you are tossing?

Love B Hernandez riding at Churchill. Hard to bet em all and the key is to this race is taking a stand. Have to be willing to toss horses. He could prove me wrong. 1) His only race where he even looks like a contender in this race is the Grade 3 Southwest. 1 1/6 in the mud. He freaked that day, but other than the maiden win he's never run big. 2) I just watched the Arkansas Derby again and for the life of me I can't see where he had trouble. Just Steel stumbled mid stretch and still extended distance from Mystik Dan down the lane. 3) His final work was ho hum. 1:01 and change handily. Same day Catching Freedom goes 59 and 1 breezing. 2 seconds slower and he went harder. All that said, I like him even less now. But I could be wrong.

 

[Judge Smails]

The 2 that I'm most confident in getting into the trifecta are Catching Freedom and Sierra Leone. The will both be coming when others are backing up and will absolutely get 1 1/4 miles. Just have to try a few combinations and get the 3rd one. If Fierceness runs his race this could be a bit chalky. If he doesn't it could pay if you get one of those 20-1 shots in there.

 

[Judge Smails]

Good Kentucky Derby webinar here with Brad Free and Andy Beyer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMekX-50vSQ

 

[Timmay]

Nice write up Judge. I am with you on most of your analysis.

Here is my breakdown:

Tosses for me: Catalytic, TO Password, West Saratoga, Domestic Product, Grand Mo the First, Stronghold, Society Man and Epic Ride.

1. Dornoch: This horse has looked great at times (Remsen), but terrible in his last race (Bluegrass vs SL). I do think they have no other choice but to send him early and the 1 slot doesnt hurt him as much as it should with both SL and MD next to him in the 2/3 slot. I think he will be the early pace along with Track Phantom, TO Password and possibly Epic Ride. Of the 4, I can see him hanging around the longest. Also some rumblings of a quarter crack in his hoof? So not sure how that will effect him or a possible scratch incoming. Use in 3/4 slot. Fun fact: Jayson Werth the former Phillies player co-owns this horse.

2. Sierra Leone: Love this horse's style. Deep closer who can easily handle the 1 1/4 distance. I think he will end up being the post time favorite. Love Gaffalione as well. I don't think the fractions are going to be an issue with him at all, fast or slow I think he can still mow them down. Only issue I see is traffic concerns. Hard to see him out of the top 3-4. Thinking he will be my key horse in Exacta's. Use in top 2.

3. Mystik Dan: This horse is a mystery to me. He could win it if it is a sloppy track, he definitely freaked that day (Southwest), but I'm not so sure he can get the distance regardless. At most I would play him in my tri's/super but leaning towards a toss. At most use in top 3-4

4. Catching Freedom: He really interests me and is definitely my top next tier after favorites odds wise play. He has faced tough competition and the Louisiana preps have been the best preps this year imo. Cox + Prat = yes please. Has some of the best fractions of any horse in his last race. Just like SL, only issues I see is traffic problems. Has the capability to win this thing. Use in top 2.

6. Just Steel: I am not as high on him as others. I can't decide how high I would put him. Heavily raced grinder type that can get a piece, but can't see him winning it. Love The Coach D Wayne and is coming in good form. Nice speed figs in last race Use in 3-4 spots.

7. Honor Marie: Loves CH, but another closer who could get traffic issues. Of the 3 closers (SL and CF), I would prefer the others. Could see him getting up for a piece depending on pace early. Use 3-4.

8. Just a Touch: Lightly raced horse that never ran as a 2 year old. Can he pull off what Justify (his daddy lol) and Mage did. I do think his best racing is ahead of him, and loved him going into the Bluegrass, but SL was still able to run him down then. Multiple times in that race it looked like it was his win until SL entered the chat. If he can run his stalking type of race and takes a step forward from his last race. I wouldn't be surprised to see him win. Use in top 2.

11. Forever Young: True wildcard, just like any UAE/Japan horse, there isn't much info out there (speed figs) and these horses are always hyped up leading into the KY derby. This one seems to be even more hyped up as others as Japan horses have been holding their own in BC races, etc. I wouldnt be surprised if he won, but I am going to follow history here and at most use him underneath. I will play against the UAE derby types in the KY Derby until they beat me. Use 3-4 at most.

12. Track Phantom: Pace setter that can get a piece, but don't like him in the top 2. At most use in top 3-4 but I would be ok to toss. The addition of blinkers does give me some hope that maybe he can stay focused in the stretch and win this, but at the same time an equipment change before a huge race is never usually a good sign.

14. Endlessly: Another wild card. If he can run on dirt like he does on turf/synthetic, then watch out. Nice figs and he kind of reminds me of Two Phils coming into the race. People are counting him out but I think he could beat out some of those tiring horses in the stretch. Big question mark is how the kick back will effect him as he will likely be right in the middle of things most of the race. Use 3-4.

17. Fierceness: Morning line favorite. Great last race in the FL Derby. Will he repeat that performance? If he does then it could be a romp. If he goes back to his Good 1 race - bad the next like he has been, then he might finish off the board. Great running style for this race as I think he will be next to Just a Touch in the next tier after the pace setters for most of the race. Velazquez is a beast in this race. It will be hard to fade him, but there is a chance he could be 3-5 wide going into the first turn with the 17 post, there is a chance he bounces and doesn't show up on Saturday. There is a chance they go too fast early and he tries to compete for the lead. I will be using him in top 2, but I won't be using him as much as my others.

19. Resilience: I dont know what it is, but I have interest in this horse. He continues to improve with each race, his pedigree is there to handle the distance and it looked like he wanted more in his last race (Wood). I am not big on NY derby preps, but I just can't talk myself out of not using him underneath.

Top Selections: Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Just a Touch with a sprinkle of Fierceness.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Will take another look or 2 for sure

Contenders - Sierra Leone, catching freedom, fierceness

Dark horse - honor Marie, just a touch, endlessly society man

Could get a piece - mystik Dan, track phantom, domestic product, stronghold, resilience

No idea on the foreign horses

Toss - dornoch, catalytic, just steel, west Saratoga, grand mo, epic ride

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I don’t really respect the wood, but Society Man coming off a nice speed fig with a great workout with Curlin as a grandsire. At 50-1 I’ll sprinkle him into 2nd and 3rd and maybe a cheap tri with him on top of some of the main contenders

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Endlessly giving me animal kingdom vibes, although he isn’t working out like AK was.

 

[Chemical X]

i keep going back to stronghold for some reason. has won at CD. 6: 3-3-0. 2 losses at under a mile. last race was virtually identical to sierra leone’s. what i like from stronghold as compared to SL is being a bit more forward placed. i think SL is likely my 2nd choice, but swinging around maybe 18 horses is gonna need a pretty perfect ride. if stronghold is closer i think he won’t allow SL to pass. i am dumping the japanese shippers, cause let them prove me wrong. i am dumping fierceness cause i just have a feeling the horse will find a way to not like the crowd and the track.

I hear you. I'm usually all over the California horses because I see them first hand. But this year's crop who raced at Santa Anita were the weakest I can ever remember. The top contenders shipped, including Muth to the Arkansas Derby. While I like Stronghold's style, he is just not fast. Top Beyer of 89. I think that may be 2nd or 3rd lowest of the 20 starters. He'd have to improve a ton. Good post, so I think he'll run his race, but just not fast enough to me. Also, he has Jimmy Creed on his under side. Pure sprinter. He was all out at 1 1/8 and with that sprinter in his bloodlines I'm not sure he'll get 1 1/4 miles.

Mike Welsch said that of the Japanese horses T.O. Password, the longshot with all of 2 starts, looks better than Forever Young. So I'm with you on likely tossing both.

I agree with Fierceness. He's the type who could win easily or be done turning for home. Could light up the toteboard it that latter happens.

can you seriously do me a favor? i am better with harness handicapping and an amateur with the flats. have followed for 30 years or so, always loved the ponies. speed wise and beyer for stronghold…..i see 6 races. he lost a 6f and 7f. broke his maiden at 1m at CD. SA derby he won in :49.4 at 1 1/8, SL scored at :50 even, same distance. stronghold is thru ghostzapper, who actually won the classic at 1 1/4 wire to wire, so i don’t think distance is an issue. is beyer set to track speed bias? competition? i’m not saying i know enough about stronghold, but his times seem consistent with other horses at similar distances.

 

[QuizGuy66]

-QG

 

[zoobird]

i keep going back to stronghold for some reason. has won at CD. 6: 3-3-0. 2 losses at under a mile. last race was virtually identical to sierra leone’s. what i like from stronghold as compared to SL is being a bit more forward placed. i think SL is likely my 2nd choice, but swinging around maybe 18 horses is gonna need a pretty perfect ride. if stronghold is closer i think he won’t allow SL to pass. i am dumping the japanese shippers, cause let them prove me wrong. i am dumping fierceness cause i just have a feeling the horse will find a way to not like the crowd and the track.

I hear you. I'm usually all over the California horses because I see them first hand. But this year's crop who raced at Santa Anita were the weakest I can ever remember. The top contenders shipped, including Muth to the Arkansas Derby. While I like Stronghold's style, he is just not fast. Top Beyer of 89. I think that may be 2nd or 3rd lowest of the 20 starters. He'd have to improve a ton. Good post, so I think he'll run his race, but just not fast enough to me. Also, he has Jimmy Creed on his under side. Pure sprinter. He was all out at 1 1/8 and with that sprinter in his bloodlines I'm not sure he'll get 1 1/4 miles.

Mike Welsch said that of the Japanese horses T.O. Password, the longshot with all of 2 starts, looks better than Forever Young. So I'm with you on likely tossing both.

I agree with Fierceness. He's the type who could win easily or be done turning for home. Could light up the toteboard it that latter happens.

can you seriously do me a favor? i am better with harness handicapping and an amateur with the flats. have followed for 30 years or so, always loved the ponies. speed wise and beyer for stronghold…..i see 6 races. he lost a 6f and 7f. broke his maiden at 1m at CD. SA derby he won in :49.4 at 1 1/8, SL scored at :50 even, same distance. stronghold is thru ghostzapper, who actually won the classic at 1 1/4 wire to wire, so i don’t think distance is an issue. is beyer set to track speed bias? competition? i’m not saying i know enough about stronghold, but his times seem consistent with other horses at similar distances.

It's supposed to be adjusted for the track and the specific day at the track.

That said, ultimately a lot of it IS based on the competition in the sense that part of the adjustment process seems to consist of them sanity checking, like "Well if we give the winner a 94, then the horse who finished 5 lengths behind him would be an 84 and the horse who was 3 lengths behind that one would be a 78? Do we think those are plausible based on past performances of those horses, or do we need to adjust the winning Beyer so that the rest of the field makes more sense?"

 

[Judge Smails]

i keep going back to stronghold for some reason. has won at CD. 6: 3-3-0. 2 losses at under a mile. last race was virtually identical to sierra leone’s. what i like from stronghold as compared to SL is being a bit more forward placed. i think SL is likely my 2nd choice, but swinging around maybe 18 horses is gonna need a pretty perfect ride. if stronghold is closer i think he won’t allow SL to pass. i am dumping the japanese shippers, cause let them prove me wrong. i am dumping fierceness cause i just have a feeling the horse will find a way to not like the crowd and the track.

I hear you. I'm usually all over the California horses because I see them first hand. But this year's crop who raced at Santa Anita were the weakest I can ever remember. The top contenders shipped, including Muth to the Arkansas Derby. While I like Stronghold's style, he is just not fast. Top Beyer of 89. I think that may be 2nd or 3rd lowest of the 20 starters. He'd have to improve a ton. Good post, so I think he'll run his race, but just not fast enough to me. Also, he has Jimmy Creed on his under side. Pure sprinter. He was all out at 1 1/8 and with that sprinter in his bloodlines I'm not sure he'll get 1 1/4 miles.

Mike Welsch said that of the Japanese horses T.O. Password, the longshot with all of 2 starts, looks better than Forever Young. So I'm with you on likely tossing both.

I agree with Fierceness. He's the type who could win easily or be done turning for home. Could light up the toteboard it that latter happens.

can you seriously do me a favor? i am better with harness handicapping and an amateur with the flats. have followed for 30 years or so, always loved the ponies. speed wise and beyer for stronghold…..i see 6 races. he lost a 6f and 7f. broke his maiden at 1m at CD. SA derby he won in :49.4 at 1 1/8, SL scored at :50 even, same distance. stronghold is thru ghostzapper, who actually won the classic at 1 1/4 wire to wire, so i don’t think distance is an issue. is beyer set to track speed bias? competition? i’m not saying i know enough about stronghold, but his times seem consistent with other horses at similar distances.

Stronghold always fires. That's a plus. I like his post. You're right about Ghostzapper - could run all day. I question his Jimmy Creed dam side though for distance. I could be underestimating him. To me he totally lacks the brilliance to win a race like this. No quick turn of foot, never draws off in any of his races. Hanging on for life/death. That's usually not the recipe to get a 1 1/4 at Churchill the first Saturday of May. If the Baffert horses ran against him (Muth, etc) he wouldn't even be in the race as he would have been trounced running an 89 in the SA Derby. But if he gets the perfect trip and others don't fire could he get a piece? Sure. I just don't see it.

 

[-fish-]

Nice writeup, Smails.

Disagree pretty strongly about Resilience. No way is he a toss. Checks boxes for final fractions, 100+ brisnet and a pattern of improvement. Has the pedigree and that finish winning the Wood was pretty solid. Including this horse in all of my exotics.

 

[Todem]

Post 1 (Dornoch) and post 4 (Chasing Freedom) are the horses who I am looking at for WPS bets.

1 is a burner who can set the pace.

The 4 has a decent chance based on previous races.

Obviously the 17 is the fav……and should run a great race.

But I am honing in on 1 and 4 to try and make some money.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Important question: who are the grey horses?



-QG

 

[-fish-]

For those that haven't seen Forever Young, here's the UAE Derby. Ran wide the entire race but still had plenty for the finish. Not a really impressive field, but solid.

A 5-0 horse with pedigree for 1 1/4 miles. At 10-1, definitely including in tris and supers.

 

[-fish-]

Important question: who are the grey horses?



-QG

just West Saratoga

 

[QuizGuy66]

Okay so through my extensive research (Google) I have found out that West Saratoga is the one grey horse in the race which means he will be added to my selections for sure.

Just Steel is a toss for me. If his name was Just Bengal that would make him a must play.

More deep insight to follow as I look up lost of random hot takes on YouTube and wait for Francesa to talk hawse



-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

With the foreign shippers are follow what I call the Gonzaga rule. The first time they win anything you can be assured that they did not win for me.



-QG

 

[-fish-]

1. Dornoch: This horse has looked great at times (Remsen), but terrible in his last race (Bluegrass vs SL). I do think they have no other choice but to send him early and the 1 slot doesnt hurt him as much as it should with both SL and MD next to him in the 2/3 slot. I think he will be the early pace along with Track Phantom, TO Password and possibly Epic Ride. Of the 4, I can see him hanging around the longest. Also some rumblings of a quarter crack in his hoof? So not sure how that will effect him or a possible scratch incoming. Use in 3/4 slot. Fun fact: Jayson Werth the former Phillies player co-owns this horse.

Not really sure how you can say he looked terrible in the Bluegrass. Ran 4th most of the race, got boxed in and had to try going wide around 3 horses, only to get cut off and steadied when he nearly ran into Sierra Leone. Still recovered for 4th and was moving well after he recovered.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

1. Dornoch: This horse has looked great at times (Remsen), but terrible in his last race (Bluegrass vs SL). I do think they have no other choice but to send him early and the 1 slot doesnt hurt him as much as it should with both SL and MD next to him in the 2/3 slot. I think he will be the early pace along with Track Phantom, TO Password and possibly Epic Ride. Of the 4, I can see him hanging around the longest. Also some rumblings of a quarter crack in his hoof? So not sure how that will effect him or a possible scratch incoming. Use in 3/4 slot. Fun fact: Jayson Werth the former Phillies player co-owns this horse.

Not really sure how you can say he looked terrible in the Bluegrass. Ran 4th most of the race, got boxed in and had to try going wide around 3 horses, only to get cut off and steadied when he nearly ran into Sierra Leone. Still recovered for 4th and was moving well after he recovered.

Agreed. That 1 hole though …

 

[-fish-]

1. Dornoch: This horse has looked great at times (Remsen), but terrible in his last race (Bluegrass vs SL). I do think they have no other choice but to send him early and the 1 slot doesnt hurt him as much as it should with both SL and MD next to him in the 2/3 slot. I think he will be the early pace along with Track Phantom, TO Password and possibly Epic Ride. Of the 4, I can see him hanging around the longest. Also some rumblings of a quarter crack in his hoof? So not sure how that will effect him or a possible scratch incoming. Use in 3/4 slot. Fun fact: Jayson Werth the former Phillies player co-owns this horse.

Not really sure how you can say he looked terrible in the Bluegrass. Ran 4th most of the race, got boxed in and had to try going wide around 3 horses, only to get cut off and steadied when he nearly ran into Sierra Leone. Still recovered for 4th and was moving well after he recovered.

Agreed. That 1 hole though …

Yeah, not thrilled about the rail post. I'm fading Fierceness (and the 17 hole makes me feel better about that) so I'm looking at Sierra Leone, Resilience, Dornoch and Forever Young in my exotics.

20. Society Man - won Wood Memorial at 106-1, but other two races were awful

He came in second to Resilience.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

1. Dornoch: This horse has looked great at times (Remsen), but terrible in his last race (Bluegrass vs SL). I do think they have no other choice but to send him early and the 1 slot doesnt hurt him as much as it should with both SL and MD next to him in the 2/3 slot. I think he will be the early pace along with Track Phantom, TO Password and possibly Epic Ride. Of the 4, I can see him hanging around the longest. Also some rumblings of a quarter crack in his hoof? So not sure how that will effect him or a possible scratch incoming. Use in 3/4 slot. Fun fact: Jayson Werth the former Phillies player co-owns this horse.

Not really sure how you can say he looked terrible in the Bluegrass. Ran 4th most of the race, got boxed in and had to try going wide around 3 horses, only to get cut off and steadied when he nearly ran into Sierra Leone. Still recovered for 4th and was moving well after he recovered.

Agreed. That 1 hole though …

Yeah, not thrilled about the rail post. I'm fading Fierceness (and the 17 hole makes me feel better about that) so I'm looking at Sierra Leone, Resilience, Dornoch and Forever Young in my exotics.

20. Society Man - won Wood Memorial at 106-1, but other two races were awful

He came in second to Resilience.

I consider myself a lousy degenerate, but I do ok some days. I never , ever win on the derby

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Ever. I think I might focus on pick 3s and 4s Saturday

 

[Judge Smails]

Nice writeup, Smails.

Disagree pretty strongly about Resilience. No way is he a toss. Checks boxes for final fractions, 100+ brisnet and a pattern of improvement. Has the pedigree and that finish winning the Wood was pretty solid. Including this horse in all of my exotics.

Totally respect your opinion, Fish. I could be wrong. Have to agree to disagree on this one and we'll see Saturday. The Wood was probably a worse race than the Santa Anita Derby. Slow time, 90 Beyer, and the horse that finished 2nd was coming off an 82 Beyer 6 horse field Maiden win. Let's face it - the Wood has been a terrible race for years now. Hard to believe a race that use to feature the likes of Easy Goer is now a Grade 2 and the horses coming out of it have been easy tosses for years in the Derby. Last Wood winner to win the Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus 24 years ago. Maybe I'm just so jaded on the Wood as horses I thought were much better than this one run up the track the first Saturday in May. He wants to lay close but he's not fast enough to get the lead here with all of the speed inside him. Fierceness is way faster. Stronghold probably faster. Track Phantom way faster. Just a Touch. And so on. So first turn my bet is he's at least 6 wide if not more. Shown no ability to rate more than a few lengths behind. I just don't see how he gets any trip to be a contender in here. But that's the great thing about parimutual wagering. You can have your opinion and if you're right get handsomely rewarded for it. I'll be you a beer or three if he finishes in the exacta.

 

[Judge Smails]

Jeff Siegel, whom I respect, gives Stronghold a real shot (has Fierceness and Sierra Leone as his keys)

Stronghold is considerably slower on the Beyer scale, though until proven otherwise we’ll believe that his 89 figure short changes him by at least five points. He’s another that has been quite impressive in the morning leading up to the race. The son of Ghostzapper has never taken a backward move, will stay the trip, and is very likely to produce yet another career top performance. If you’re playing trifectas and supers, we strongly recommend including him underneath

 

[Judge Smails]

Current odds. May have to include Stringhold underneath at 43-1

Kentucky Derby odds​

• Fierceness (Post 17): 9-5
• Sierra Leone (2): 6-1
• Forever Young (11): 8-1
• Catching Freedom (4): 9-1
• Dornoch (1): 15-1
• Honor Marie (7): 16-1
• Just A Touch (8): 17-1
• Mystik Dan (3): 27-1
• Resilience (19): 28-1
• West Saratoga (13): 32-1
• Just Steel (6): 34-1
• Domestic Product (15): 38-1
• Catalytic (5): 42-1
• Stronghold (18): 43-1
• Track Phantom (12): 52-1
• Endlessly (14): 52-1
• T O Password (10): 61-1
• Epic Ride (21): 63-1
• Grand Mo The First (16): 64-1
• Society Man (20): 73-1
• Mugatu (22): 87-1

 

[Cowboysfan8]

I wish @otb_lifer was around

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Race 3 - 8/5/3 LFG

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Sloppy today smh

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Oh well P4 still live

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Need 4 5 or 6 here go close out the p4. Preferably the 5, I think the 4 I break even. Small win with the other 2

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Need 4 5 or 6 here go close out the p4. Preferably the 5, I think the 4 I break even. Small win with the other 2

GL

 

[Dan Lambskin]

oh well better than losing

 

[-fish-]

Can I bet on Irad fouling someone in the Derby?

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Money back special at TVG races 6

$10 win #9

 

[-fish-]

Just started looking at today's CD card.

Fading the favorite in the 6th. I'm leaning toward Elm Drive. Been competing at or near this level and has hit the board in 4 of 5 turf races. Turf sprints are a crapshoot in my book, so 9-1 looks pretty good to me.

Exacta box 3/5/9/10. WPS 5. Ex 5/all

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Can I bet on Irad fouling someone in the Derby?

Too easy