rockaction
Footballguy
Yes, that's pretty much what I meant by saying "if you get a player you like over market value" you won the trade today. Today being the key.
Gotcha. I think I missed what you were saying. There's a theory that holds that you want to win present value only because trying to beat the current market constantly is a fool's errand. That's where I disagree, though somebody writing theoretically and with data about that might disagree with me, which is fair because I'm only going off of experience.
I just think there is a difference between a good trade that ends up bad and a bad trade. Some may not see it any differently.
Again, agreed. There's definitely a difference. I don't kick myself so much for missing out on Jefferson when I had the chance to take a receiver that year, because I was going by who I thought would wind up being the best of the bunch. But as long as my process was good (it wasn't, but it never is perfect), then I wasn't too broken up about it.
One thing is that in your subsequent post, you're using an aggregate of trades there and implying that you lost in the end (perhaps it was just a thought exercise--I thought it might be that). I'd humbly suggest that trades can't really be looked at too far from the date they're done and that subsequent or intervening trades leave you with a less-than-perfect valuation trail. Like, the firsts for Julio and Bell are slam dunks. Then I'd sort of stop worrying about what that led to unless your intent all along was to flip those firsts for the top pick.
Your intent at the time matters, IMO. You slam dunked that trade and nothing should really detract from that.