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Did Marshall not represent good value in the 19th or 21st rounds? See, all this 20:20 hindsight patting-one's-self-on-the-back sort of stuff just points to how dumb luck plays a vital role in this game. Good for you that you stumbled upon a good draft pick that you so cleverly planned to take in the 23rd round.
This post makes this thread worth it. I don't know if this changes my mind about much except that Steve Smith was the most consistent WR last year. I don't think you can really draft for those guys who break in 2-3 times. OK, going to reread those spoilers now.
if you're here in the off-season, you probably play in some deep leagues. Two of mine usually start 60+ WRs each week, so I like these conversations.
josh morgan has played 2 seasons in the league, and he looked very good as a rookie and last year (52, 581, 3). the defense has to pay attention to davis, crab, and the running game. if you dont pay attention to these kinds of situations you probably wont win your league and youll end up taking laverneous coles instead of sidney rice when you get into the teens. it is rare in leagues i have played in where a guy didnt win because he picked up some starters in the later rounds.sholditch said:
What does Josh Morgan have to do with Sidney Rice?
So I should take the next Miles Austin instead of Torry Holt and the next Jamaal Charles instead of Garrard in this year's drafts? Why didn't I think of that?
It's even worse than that. Of course NOW we know to take Miles over Torry and Jamaal over Garrard in this year's drafts (but, thank goodness someone puts out a reminder in case we forgot or something). But, the whole idea of selecting for "value" in those rounds is insane, because there's now predictive value there...you're picking up fliers at that point. And, that's fine, that's all part of this. But, most of the time, let's not kid ourselves, we're not smart...we're getting lucky. Like the guy above who's all proud of himself for taking Brandon Marshall in 2007 in, like, the 23rd round. Props to you. You must be the smartest FF GM ever.So I should take the next Miles Austin instead of Torry Holt and the next Jamaal Charles instead of Garrard in this year's drafts? Why didn't I think of that?
I don't buy that either, because if you REALLY thought highly of Brandon Marshall, you don't draft him in the 23rd, he would have went earlier than that.It's a lot of luck in the pros too. Tom Brady went in the 6th round, Joe Montana in the 3rd. It's not like those teams new way more than everyone else and they selected them in round 1. Tom Brady went in the 6th, the Patriots liked a lot more players in that draft than Tom Brady. There's a slight argument one can make in that you're not going to draft a player earlier when you can get him later. For example, I'm not going to draft Brandon Marshall in 07 in the 10th round when I know he's going later than that. That part is true but at some point if he's your guy, the flyer you're really high on this year you don't wait until round 23. That's just going down a list and many many players have already been drafted, it's your turn and you're up and you happen to select Bradon Marshall. You may have heard a good thing about him in training camp and don't mind the pick because of that but come on.It's even worse than that. Of course NOW we know to take Miles over Torry and Jamaal over Garrard in this year's drafts (but, thank goodness someone puts out a reminder in case we forgot or something). But, the whole idea of selecting for "value" in those rounds is insane, because there's now predictive value there...you're picking up fliers at that point. And, that's fine, that's all part of this. But, most of the time, let's not kid ourselves, we're not smart...we're getting lucky. Like the guy above who's all proud of himself for taking Brandon Marshall in 2007 in, like, the 23rd round. Props to you. You must be the smartest FF GM ever.So I should take the next Miles Austin instead of Torry Holt and the next Jamaal Charles instead of Garrard in this year's drafts? Why didn't I think of that?
Exactly.Bottom line, the whole discussion of value should not revolve around Marshall circa 07 or Miles in 09 or any of those players of this ilk. Of course they represent value, but you're not adding anything to the SP by reminding everyone of this post hoc. They are good flashpoints for another discussion, which might be titled something like "Fliers to Select in Later Rounds; Who Are They?" But, the Value discussion really is more relevant in terms of comparisons of Gore vs AJ or taking a QB early vs late...that sort of thing.I don't buy that either, because if you REALLY thought highly of Brandon Marshall, you don't draft him in the 23rd, he would have went earlier than that.It's a lot of luck in the pros too. Tom Brady went in the 6th round, Joe Montana in the 3rd. It's not like those teams new way more than everyone else and they selected them in round 1. Tom Brady went in the 6th, the Patriots liked a lot more players in that draft than Tom Brady. There's a slight argument one can make in that you're not going to draft a player earlier when you can get him later. For example, I'm not going to draft Brandon Marshall in 07 in the 10th round when I know he's going later than that. That part is true but at some point if he's your guy, the flyer you're really high on this year you don't wait until round 23. That's just going down a list and many many players have already been drafted, it's your turn and you're up and you happen to select Bradon Marshall. You may have heard a good thing about him in training camp and don't mind the pick because of that but come on.It's even worse than that. Of course NOW we know to take Miles over Torry and Jamaal over Garrard in this year's drafts (but, thank goodness someone puts out a reminder in case we forgot or something). But, the whole idea of selecting for "value" in those rounds is insane, because there's now predictive value there...you're picking up fliers at that point. And, that's fine, that's all part of this. But, most of the time, let's not kid ourselves, we're not smart...we're getting lucky. Like the guy above who's all proud of himself for taking Brandon Marshall in 2007 in, like, the 23rd round. Props to you. You must be the smartest FF GM ever.So I should take the next Miles Austin instead of Torry Holt and the next Jamaal Charles instead of Garrard in this year's drafts? Why didn't I think of that?
We aren't adding anything of value by advising you to steer clear of guys who are known commodities with little chance of increasing in value and more than likely won't do anything. You think it took foresight to predict Torry Holt and Garrard wouldn't help your team this time last year? It doesn't, and picking up the Miles Austin's of the world definitely does, but at least you give yourself the chance to do that by avoiding those guys. You know how many people drafted Jamal Lewis, Julius Jones, and larry Johnson in the mid-rounds last year? Lots. The phenomenon will repeat itself this year with Clinton Portis, Garrard yet again, Maroney and countless other scrubs who have established themselves as such. It's not wiser to use those last picks on guys with upside that might actually have trade value down the road?It's even worse than that. Of course NOW we know to take Miles over Torry and Jamaal over Garrard in this year's drafts (but, thank goodness someone puts out a reminder in case we forgot or something). But, the whole idea of selecting for "value" in those rounds is insane, because there's now predictive value there...you're picking up fliers at that point. And, that's fine, that's all part of this. But, most of the time, let's not kid ourselves, we're not smart...we're getting lucky. Like the guy above who's all proud of himself for taking Brandon Marshall in 2007 in, like, the 23rd round. Props to you. You must be the smartest FF GM ever.So I should take the next Miles Austin instead of Torry Holt and the next Jamaal Charles instead of Garrard in this year's drafts? Why didn't I think of that?
So, if what you're saying is to value players with upside over players with downside, what are you really adding to this discussion that we don't already know? What's the point here? Serious question because I don't think this is a novel concept.We aren't adding anything of value by advising you to steer clear of guys who are known commodities with little chance of increasing in value and more than likely won't do anything. You think it took foresight to predict Torry Holt and Garrard wouldn't help your team this time last year? It doesn't, and picking up the Miles Austin's of the world definitely does, but at least you give yourself the chance to do that by avoiding those guys. You know how many people drafted Jamal Lewis, Julius Jones, and larry Johnson in the mid-rounds last year? Lots. The phenomenon will repeat itself this year with Clinton Portis, Garrard yet again, Maroney and countless other scrubs who have established themselves as such. It's not wiser to use those last picks on guys with upside that might actually have trade value down the road?It's even worse than that. Of course NOW we know to take Miles over Torry and Jamaal over Garrard in this year's drafts (but, thank goodness someone puts out a reminder in case we forgot or something). But, the whole idea of selecting for "value" in those rounds is insane, because there's now predictive value there...you're picking up fliers at that point. And, that's fine, that's all part of this. But, most of the time, let's not kid ourselves, we're not smart...we're getting lucky. Like the guy above who's all proud of himself for taking Brandon Marshall in 2007 in, like, the 23rd round. Props to you. You must be the smartest FF GM ever.So I should take the next Miles Austin instead of Torry Holt and the next Jamaal Charles instead of Garrard in this year's drafts? Why didn't I think of that?
Not a novel concept yet guys that shouldn't be drafted every year do with the backing of almost the entire FF industry. You obviously grasp this. Others don't and I can prove it, one of the main arguements in the 2 page long Jabar Gaffney thread is you can grab him at #70 and he has upside of #50. Yippee! And the Garrard love still flows deep around here with the writers for some reason.Isn't that the point of this whole thread, people overvaluing value?So, if what you're saying is to value players with upside over players with downside, what are you really adding to this discussion that we don't already know? What's the point here? Serious question because I don't think this is a novel concept.We aren't adding anything of value by advising you to steer clear of guys who are known commodities with little chance of increasing in value and more than likely won't do anything. You think it took foresight to predict Torry Holt and Garrard wouldn't help your team this time last year? It doesn't, and picking up the Miles Austin's of the world definitely does, but at least you give yourself the chance to do that by avoiding those guys. You know how many people drafted Jamal Lewis, Julius Jones, and larry Johnson in the mid-rounds last year? Lots. The phenomenon will repeat itself this year with Clinton Portis, Garrard yet again, Maroney and countless other scrubs who have established themselves as such. It's not wiser to use those last picks on guys with upside that might actually have trade value down the road?It's even worse than that. Of course NOW we know to take Miles over Torry and Jamaal over Garrard in this year's drafts (but, thank goodness someone puts out a reminder in case we forgot or something). But, the whole idea of selecting for "value" in those rounds is insane, because there's now predictive value there...you're picking up fliers at that point. And, that's fine, that's all part of this. But, most of the time, let's not kid ourselves, we're not smart...we're getting lucky. Like the guy above who's all proud of himself for taking Brandon Marshall in 2007 in, like, the 23rd round. Props to you. You must be the smartest FF GM ever.So I should take the next Miles Austin instead of Torry Holt and the next Jamaal Charles instead of Garrard in this year's drafts? Why didn't I think of that?
If I remember right, plenty of people last year thought ricky williams and vernon davis were scrubs. Not all fliers with upside have only been in the league one or two years. I think that's why you shouldn't completely ignore value, because fantasy performers can come from anywhere and I don't think it's prudent to forget that.We aren't adding anything of value by advising you to steer clear of guys who are known commodities with little chance of increasing in value and more than likely won't do anything. You think it took foresight to predict Torry Holt and Garrard wouldn't help your team this time last year? It doesn't, and picking up the Miles Austin's of the world definitely does, but at least you give yourself the chance to do that by avoiding those guys. You know how many people drafted Jamal Lewis, Julius Jones, and larry Johnson in the mid-rounds last year? Lots. The phenomenon will repeat itself this year with Clinton Portis, Garrard yet again, Maroney and countless other scrubs who have established themselves as such. It's not wiser to use those last picks on guys with upside that might actually have trade value down the road?It's even worse than that. Of course NOW we know to take Miles over Torry and Jamaal over Garrard in this year's drafts (but, thank goodness someone puts out a reminder in case we forgot or something). But, the whole idea of selecting for "value" in those rounds is insane, because there's now predictive value there...you're picking up fliers at that point. And, that's fine, that's all part of this. But, most of the time, let's not kid ourselves, we're not smart...we're getting lucky. Like the guy above who's all proud of himself for taking Brandon Marshall in 2007 in, like, the 23rd round. Props to you. You must be the smartest FF GM ever.So I should take the next Miles Austin instead of Torry Holt and the next Jamaal Charles instead of Garrard in this year's drafts? Why didn't I think of that?
Shall I find the Torry Holt thread after he signed with the Pats and people (including some FBG experts) were prediciting him to be a decent WR#3 on your FF team?
Late picks are all about trying to find upside under a rock. This isn't just about late picks either, as an example, Ray Rice last year. Many people on this board flat out ridiculed taking Rice in the 4th or 5th round. Sure, there was some risk, but it was indeed, lightning in a bottle. That is what value drafting is to me... it has risk, but it can have ample rewards. The later into a draft you go, the less risk there is in looking for upside.
So, how does value really drive draft strategy?I might be confused about semantics. I think "value" here is simply ADP vs expected performance. I don't think we're talking VBD.
