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QB Justin Herbert, LAC (2 Viewers)

Hot Sauce Guy said:
Just Win Baby said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Just Win Baby said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Dizzy said:
travdogg said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
the regression is real.

Really thought the new OC was going to unlock Herbert.

Dude had Eke wide open in the flat about 14 times in the 3rd/4th today, and just literally never looked his way.

Defenders were letting Ekeler run free because they knew the ball wasn’t going there.

Just absolutely bizarre.
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Thought the same thing. Ekeler should have had close to 10 catches. WAY too many forces downfield. Same problem last week too.
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And isn't this the exact reasoning for Dallas giving Kellen Moore the boot? He doesn't try to control the clock with the running game and likes to "take shots" instead of moving the sticks.
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Yeah, but that’s not what we’re talking about here.

Outside of one long run by Kelley, the Chargers struggled to run the ball. But on those passing plays, Herbert ignored Ekeler in the flat at least a dozen+ times. He glanced at him once briefly, then chucked it into double coverage downfield.

Eke was open like a 7-11 for much of the day. He had 2 targets witn 1 reception.

Moore never ignited Pollard like that.
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Last season, Pollard had 56 targets in 18 games - 3.1 targets per game. This season, Ekeler has 11 targets in 3 games - 3.7 targets per game. :shrug:

It was foreseeable that Ekeler's targets would come down in 2023. I posted this in August:

New OC Moore has not typically targeted his RBs much.

Dallas targeted its RBs:
2022 - 90 times (~15% of targets)
2021 - 120 times (~18%)
2020 - 107 times (~18%)

Ekeler himself had 126 targets last season (~18%), and Chargers RBs collectively had ~26% of the targets. I can see the argument that Ekeler is a better receiving RB than the Cowboys RBs Moore had, though Pollard is pretty good. But I am expecting more of a vertical passing game from the Chargers in 2023, which implies fewer targets to Ekeler. Fewer targets could also contribute to fewer receiving TDs.
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ok sure I get that - but in this specific game, the WRs were blanketed and Eke was wide open again and again. In one laughable sequence they were 2nd & 5, then 3rd and 5, and Eke had easy 1st downs but Herbert opted to throw deep into double coverage both times.

That's not on the coach. That's on Herbert.
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I think it is being exaggerated a bit in this thread.

Herbert was 17/30. Remove Ekeler's 2 targets, and he was 16/28. Was Ekeler open on every one of those incompletions? I doubt it. For one thing, according to PFF, Ekeler had 2 pass blocking snaps. Unless those both resulted in sacks or scrambles, he couldn't have been targeted on those snaps.

I haven't had time to watch the entire game again, but I watched the first series. Herbert dropped back 4 times:
  1. Completed pass to Ekeler
  2. Targeted Palmer; DPI called; Ekeler was pass blocking
  3. Herbert scrambled for 6 yards; Ekeler was not on the field, Kelley was at RB
  4. On 3rd and 2, Herbert was sacked; Ekeler leaked out to the left flat, but Herbert's read started off on the right, and he was sacked before he could go through his progression and get to Ekeler, who wasn't ever even in Herbert's sightline
In that series, Herbert had an opportunity to target Ekeler once, and he did. There was no other opportunity due to coaching and playcalling, not Herbert.

I'm sure Herbert missed a few opportunities where he arguably should have targeted Ekeler, but I doubt I will see as many as some of you posting here when I watch the rest of the game again.
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If you watch the 2nd half of that game you'll see that it's not exaggerated in the slightest.
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:blackdot:

I will revisit this once I can watch the entire game. I feel 100% confident that I will not come away believing that Herbert should have thrown to Ekeler 12 more times, which has been implied here.
 
He just needs that moment in the playoffs. The problem is that in the afc that moment will have to to come against Mahomes, Allen, or Burrow.
 
I wonder if the Chargers have looked into trading for Hopkins. Their pass attack has not been the same since Mike Williams went down. Hopkins is about as plug-and-play a WR as you can get. If they're still serious about trying to make the playoffs this season, they could use some receiving help.
 
Just Win Baby said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Just Win Baby said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Just Win Baby said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Dizzy said:
travdogg said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
the regression is real.

Really thought the new OC was going to unlock Herbert.

Dude had Eke wide open in the flat about 14 times in the 3rd/4th today, and just literally never looked his way.

Defenders were letting Ekeler run free because they knew the ball wasn’t going there.

Just absolutely bizarre.
Click to expand...
Thought the same thing. Ekeler should have had close to 10 catches. WAY too many forces downfield. Same problem last week too.
Click to expand...

And isn't this the exact reasoning for Dallas giving Kellen Moore the boot? He doesn't try to control the clock with the running game and likes to "take shots" instead of moving the sticks.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but that’s not what we’re talking about here.

Outside of one long run by Kelley, the Chargers struggled to run the ball. But on those passing plays, Herbert ignored Ekeler in the flat at least a dozen+ times. He glanced at him once briefly, then chucked it into double coverage downfield.

Eke was open like a 7-11 for much of the day. He had 2 targets witn 1 reception.

Moore never ignited Pollard like that.
Click to expand...

Last season, Pollard had 56 targets in 18 games - 3.1 targets per game. This season, Ekeler has 11 targets in 3 games - 3.7 targets per game. :shrug:

It was foreseeable that Ekeler's targets would come down in 2023. I posted this in August:

New OC Moore has not typically targeted his RBs much.

Dallas targeted its RBs:
2022 - 90 times (~15% of targets)
2021 - 120 times (~18%)
2020 - 107 times (~18%)

Ekeler himself had 126 targets last season (~18%), and Chargers RBs collectively had ~26% of the targets. I can see the argument that Ekeler is a better receiving RB than the Cowboys RBs Moore had, though Pollard is pretty good. But I am expecting more of a vertical passing game from the Chargers in 2023, which implies fewer targets to Ekeler. Fewer targets could also contribute to fewer receiving TDs.
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ok sure I get that - but in this specific game, the WRs were blanketed and Eke was wide open again and again. In one laughable sequence they were 2nd & 5, then 3rd and 5, and Eke had easy 1st downs but Herbert opted to throw deep into double coverage both times.

That's not on the coach. That's on Herbert.
Click to expand...

I think it is being exaggerated a bit in this thread.

Herbert was 17/30. Remove Ekeler's 2 targets, and he was 16/28. Was Ekeler open on every one of those incompletions? I doubt it. For one thing, according to PFF, Ekeler had 2 pass blocking snaps. Unless those both resulted in sacks or scrambles, he couldn't have been targeted on those snaps.

I haven't had time to watch the entire game again, but I watched the first series. Herbert dropped back 4 times:
  1. Completed pass to Ekeler
  2. Targeted Palmer; DPI called; Ekeler was pass blocking
  3. Herbert scrambled for 6 yards; Ekeler was not on the field, Kelley was at RB
  4. On 3rd and 2, Herbert was sacked; Ekeler leaked out to the left flat, but Herbert's read started off on the right, and he was sacked before he could go through his progression and get to Ekeler, who wasn't ever even in Herbert's sightline
In that series, Herbert had an opportunity to target Ekeler once, and he did. There was no other opportunity due to coaching and playcalling, not Herbert.

I'm sure Herbert missed a few opportunities where he arguably should have targeted Ekeler, but I doubt I will see as many as some of you posting here when I watch the rest of the game again.
Click to expand...
If you watch the 2nd half of that game you'll see that it's not exaggerated in the slightest.
Click to expand...

:blackdot:

I will revisit this once I can watch the entire game. I feel 100% confident that I will not come away believing that Herbert should have thrown to Ekeler 12 more times, which has been implied here.
Click to expand...
yes I agree 12 is excessive. but I did see a couple of plays where he definitely could have.
but as someone else said..... what this offense is trying to accomplish is different from what the previous OC was trying to do.
 
Im a big Herbert fan. I own zero shares. He has struggled. He hasn't taken a step forward but hasn't regressed to the point of oh my goodness. 6th in points in my leagues scoring.
 
FarFromHome said:
Im a big Herbert fan. I own zero shares. He has struggled. He hasn't taken a step forward but hasn't regressed to the point of oh my goodness. 6th in points in my leagues scoring.
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He needs more quality targets to throw to and some consistency in offensive scheme. Sadly, I am not confident the franchise will provide him with those things.
 
eagles 123 said:
He’s 6th in scoring but the past few weeks have been atrocious
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He lost me a shot at the playoffs last week.

My team has all sorts of issues that I don’t need to explain here. And alot of it is point to the shirt.

But in a 6 point passing TD league, and losing by 3 points… it hurt to lost with Herbert last week.
 
This whole team looks like they’re on life support and can’t wait for 2024 with a new coaching staff. Everyone know the writings on the wall
 
Staley should be fired today. Terribly ineffective and aggressive decision maker with bad game plans that may or may not have set back Herbert's career years, if not outright ruined it. Awful.
 
Jacob's Ladder said:
Staley should be fired today. Terribly ineffective and aggressive decision maker with bad game plans that may or may not have set back Herbert's career years, if not outright ruined it. Awful.
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Really bad coaching - Herbert regressed big time this year - may be a good time to buy on the dip as its an attractive job so I think they will have a much better situation next year
 
Kiddnets said:
Jacob's Ladder said:
Staley should be fired today. Terribly ineffective and aggressive decision maker with bad game plans that may or may not have set back Herbert's career years, if not outright ruined it. Awful.
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Really bad coaching - Herbert regressed big time this year - may be a good time to buy on the dip as its an attractive job so I think they will have a much better situation next year
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The thing that really bothers me is his protection schemes and how they (don’t) ever adjust. This has and will continue to hurt Herbert both mentally and physically until a change is made.

I agree most of this offense should be considered as a buy low next season. I will be looking to add Herbert everywhere I can provided they get even a semi-competent HC.
 
Funny how fast stuff changes. Recall a few weeks into the season that people were citing stuff like red zone efficiency and basically bagging on McCarthy both as a play caller and for firing Moore while throwing effusive praise Moore's way.
 
menobrown said:
Funny how fast stuff changes. Recall a few weeks into the season that people were citing stuff like red zone efficiency and basically bagging on McCarthy both as a play caller and for firing Moore while throwing effusive praise Moore's way.
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The NFL is a what have you done for me lately league and with only 17 regular season games every year, a lot can change week to week. All that said, Stevie Wonder could have seen the outcome with the Chargers if you've watched any one of Staley's losses, and there have been many. Way way too many.
 
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Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is very likely to undergo surgery Tuesday on his fractured right index finger, per source. Whether Herbert will have any chance to able to return this season will be determined by the surgery.
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Hopefully we'll get more info before waivers run this week, but based on this I would guess it's probably safe to drop him in any non-IR leagues, especially given that he hadn't exactly been tearing up the league before he got hurt
 
New Chargers OC Greg Roman emphasized “balance” and having a “strong, powerful identity” in his introductory press conference.

In other words, Roman and head coach Jim Harbaugh won’t be changing a thing with their approach and will lean on the run far more than the past few Chargers coaches. “We want to be a balanced offense,” Roman began. “We want to be able to run it when we want to run it and throw it when we want to throw it. If they present looks that are favorable to run it, then we want to be able to run it at a high level. Every place I’ve been, that’s kind of been the goal, to try to have that complete attack. ... But I think in this league, you can really help dictate to defenses if you have a strong running attack.” When asked how that squares with Justin Herbert’s strengths, Roman responded “that’s where you have to come back to what your ultimate concern is, and for us, it’s winning,” The question isn’t whether Herbert’s pass attempts will decline, but by how much. Although it could very much be a good thing in real life, it’s going to make things complicated in fantasy. Herbert will need to become more efficient in the mold of Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers’ primes.
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If Harbaugh’s history as the 9ers HC is any indication, I do not expect a lot of fantasy relevance from the QB or WRs. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but IIRC in Harbaugh’s 5 years as the 9ers HC, he had a TE finish Top 10 once, and 1 RB finish top 12 once. No QB or WR finished inside the top 12 during his tenure. We see similar numbers from Jim Harbaugh’s team (except LJax legs make him fantasy relevant). Could be a philosophical approach rooted in the family(?)

Harbaugh’s history at Michigan further reinforces my expectations.
 
32 Counter Pass said:
If Harbaugh’s history as the 9ers HC is any indication, I do not expect a lot of fantasy relevance from the QB or WRs. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but IIRC in Harbaugh’s 5 years as the 9ers HC, he had a TE finish Top 10 once, and 1 RB finish top 12 once. No QB or WR finished inside the top 12 during his tenure. We see similar numbers from Jim Harbaugh’s team (except LJax legs make him fantasy relevant). Could be a philosophical approach rooted in the family(?)

Harbaugh’s history at Michigan further reinforces my expectations.
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Definitely a concern in regard to Herbert’s FF output. To be fair he never had a QB who had the ability as a thrower like Herbert does. I do expect this to be a run-heavy offense and Herbert will have to be ultra efficient to have an FF impact.

EDIT: I do believe Herbert has the ability to be ultra-efficient and ultimately join the group of elite quarterbacks in the league. It is not only Harbaugh though, Greg Roman is notoriously stubborn sticking with his core beliefs. I do assume they know what they have in Herbert and will allow him to play to his strengths. There is no doubt that the run game will be an emphasis however.
 
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King of the Jungle said:
32 Counter Pass said:
If Harbaugh’s history as the 9ers HC is any indication, I do not expect a lot of fantasy relevance from the QB or WRs. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but IIRC in Harbaugh’s 5 years as the 9ers HC, he had a TE finish Top 10 once, and 1 RB finish top 12 once. No QB or WR finished inside the top 12 during his tenure. We see similar numbers from Jim Harbaugh’s team (except LJax legs make him fantasy relevant). Could be a philosophical approach rooted in the family(?)

Harbaugh’s history at Michigan further reinforces my expectations.
Click to expand...
Definitely a concern in regard to Herbert’s FF output. To be fair he never had a QB who had the ability as a thrower like Herbert does. I do expect this to be a run-heavy offense and Herbert will have to be ultra efficient to have an FF impact.
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I can't argue against any of this. I myself plan on targeting the RBs and defense.
 
King of the Jungle said:
32 Counter Pass said:
If Harbaugh’s history as the 9ers HC is any indication, I do not expect a lot of fantasy relevance from the QB or WRs. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but IIRC in Harbaugh’s 5 years as the 9ers HC, he had a TE finish Top 10 once, and 1 RB finish top 12 once. No QB or WR finished inside the top 12 during his tenure. We see similar numbers from Jim Harbaugh’s team (except LJax legs make him fantasy relevant). Could be a philosophical approach rooted in the family(?)

Harbaugh’s history at Michigan further reinforces my expectations.
Click to expand...
Definitely a concern in regard to Herbert’s FF output. To be fair he never had a QB who had the ability as a thrower like Herbert does. I do expect this to be a run-heavy offense and Herbert will have to be ultra efficient to have an FF impact.
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I agree Harbaugh/Roman will likely cap the fantasy ceiling of Herbert and Chargers WRs. But, as you say, he never had a QB like Herbert before, at SF or Michigan. He also never had a WR as good as Allen. He also never had a TE as good in the passing game as Bowers, should they choose to draft Bowers.

Most importantly, Harbaugh is a good, smart football coach. He doesn't strike me as the type who will stubbornly insist on running a system that does not maximize the team's chance of winning. I expect pass attempts to be lower and rush attempts to be higher, but I think there will be enough passing to give Herbert a chance to be a top 5 fantasy QB.
 
Just Win Baby said:
King of the Jungle said:
32 Counter Pass said:
If Harbaugh’s history as the 9ers HC is any indication, I do not expect a lot of fantasy relevance from the QB or WRs. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but IIRC in Harbaugh’s 5 years as the 9ers HC, he had a TE finish Top 10 once, and 1 RB finish top 12 once. No QB or WR finished inside the top 12 during his tenure. We see similar numbers from Jim Harbaugh’s team (except LJax legs make him fantasy relevant). Could be a philosophical approach rooted in the family(?)

Harbaugh’s history at Michigan further reinforces my expectations.
Click to expand...
Definitely a concern in regard to Herbert’s FF output. To be fair he never had a QB who had the ability as a thrower like Herbert does. I do expect this to be a run-heavy offense and Herbert will have to be ultra efficient to have an FF impact.
Click to expand...

I agree Harbaugh/Roman will likely cap the fantasy ceiling of Herbert and Chargers WRs. But, as you say, he never had a QB like Herbert before, at SF or Michigan. He also never had a WR as good as Allen. He also never had a TE as good in the passing game as Bowers, should they choose to draft Bowers.

Most importantly, Harbaugh is a good, smart football coach. He doesn't strike me as the type who will stubbornly insist on running a system that does not maximize the team's chance of winning. I expect pass attempts to be lower and rush attempts to be higher, but I think there will be enough passing to give Herbert a chance to be a top 5 fantasy QB.
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FWIW, the last time Harbaugh had a QB of similar caliber, Andrew Luck did fairly well. Granted, PAC-10 and 14 years ago.
 
I think you just countered your own argument. 😉

if you believe Harbaugh’s own words, he had a similar QB in McCarthy. I am not saying McCarthy is equal to Luck. But I am pointing out that he had a first round talent in McCarthy and underutilized him.
 
32 Counter Pass said:
I think you just countered your own argument. 😉

if you believe Harbaugh’s own words, he had a similar QB in McCarthy. I am not saying McCarthy is equal to Luck. But I am pointing out that he had a first round talent in McCarthy and underutilized him.
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He had a team good enough to win a national championship while underutilizing McCarthy, to the extent he did that. The Chargers team he has is not close to good enough to win a Super Bowl if he doesn't appropriately utilize Herbert. Apples and oranges.
 
I agree he doesn’t have the team right now, so Herbert might have some relevancy this year. But watch the offseason moves. He will build a team similar to his teams with the 9ers, Michigan and Stanford. I think Harbaugh was a great hire. However, based on his history, I am not very optimistic about potential fantasy targets In the pass game. That said, if Bowers landed there, I would be intrigued.
 
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