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QB Justin Herbert, LAC (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Down Under
Footballguy
Like QB2 low?
Harjiran
Footballguy
I don't think he's a QB2, so if I can get him at QB2 cost, sure.
TakiToki
Footballguy
Going after him heavily in multi-year superflex rebuilds. Ride out the Harbaugh/Roman ground-and-pound years while keeping the tank on, and then have a top 3 QB for the subsequent several years drop out of the sky with the potential Air Coryell overcorrection from the next coach.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Five years is a long wait. Also betting against Harbaugh is a bad bet.
Terpman22
Footballguy
The dude had like 80 TDS in his first 2 years. Plenty of potential there, just needs proper coaching and scheme.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
And a better offensive line. Everybody's focusing on the lack of receivers. He can make it pay with JAGs at WR and TE if he gets time to throw. The Chargers' O Line has been pretty bad for too much of his time here, and too much of the time period since like 2012. If they get enough picks, or coach up Zion Johnson, and Salyer (whom the team has invested draft capital in recently) to turn that around this year, he'll be good. They don't have even a reclamation project for C on the roster at this point - they'll have to address that in the draft at least.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I think Harbaugh views Herbert more like a peer than a pupil. That's the sort of relationship McVay has with Stafford. Herbert's intelligence is off the charts, so I think we're about to watch some fun football in LA once they get cooking.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think the combination of Harbaugh and Herbert will at some point win a championship. At the same time I am nauseated by the thought that Herbert will be on a leash with Harbaugh/Roman which will prevent the record breaking FF potential I think he has. #dynastyholderimprisonedbyregime
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Well he was QB11 last year and QB15 the year prior without a run-first/play D head coach/OC combo.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yes.
In a mock
Jim Harbaugh gets J.J. McCarthy, trades Justin Herbert to Vikings in new mock draft
In this mock draft, we look at what would happen if Jim Harbaugh really wanted to coach J.J. McCarthy again.
cardswire.usatoday.com
Harjiran
Footballguy
Cool, I get it - and if that's where he's being valued, I'm buying. I tend to look at talent first, situation second - sometimes that turns out to be a mistake but erring in that direction usually works out for me.
Tau837
Footballguy
He was hurt during the week 14 game last season. In weeks 1-13, he ranked #9 in ppg, less than 1 ppg behind #5. Minor difference, but a more reasonable way to look at it IMO.
I agree with your implication that his performance is more likely to decline than improve.
- As of now, compared to the past 2 seasons, he has lost WR1 Allen, WR2 Williams, RB1 Ekeler, and TE1 Everett and gained RB Edwards, TE Dissly, and TE Hurst. That looks like an overall downgrade in passing game targets... by a lot.
- It is also reasonable to expect he will attempt fewer passes going forward -- in 2023, he was #8 (35.1 PA per game); in 2022, he was #2 (41.1) -- this will likely reduce his fantasy stats.
- Not for nothing, he has also dealt with serious injuries that affected his play in each of the past 2 seasons. I don't think that is necessarily predictive of future injuries, but Harbaugh/Roman need to improve the pass protection to avoid that continuing.
As a Chargers and Herbert fan, IMO he is a sell high if you can still get a high price.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
In dynasty, I think it’s going to be ok.
Everyone loves what GB did in surrounding J Love with young talented WRs. Obviously the fo may miss their shots. or be boneheaded and not even try to draft talented pass catchers. We’re accustomed to lowered expectations from front offices. But I’m assuming they have some kind of plan for using one of the top 3 arms in the league since they probably are considering trying to win.
Most draft and scouting has 10-15 guys in this class that can contribute right away.
Given his age, they’re probably envisioning a budding superstar as the young WRs come into their own over the next couple of years. I sure hope so!! I don’t even mind if they move back to get a LT. A Stacked OL is a good thing. They can get functional WRs at which ever position they want.
If I was them, I’d move QJ inside. There’s a bunch of X guys in this class. Hasn’t been for a while it seems.
Everyone loves what GB did in surrounding J Love with young talented WRs. Obviously the fo may miss their shots. or be boneheaded and not even try to draft talented pass catchers. We’re accustomed to lowered expectations from front offices. But I’m assuming they have some kind of plan for using one of the top 3 arms in the league since they probably are considering trying to win.
Most draft and scouting has 10-15 guys in this class that can contribute right away.
Given his age, they’re probably envisioning a budding superstar as the young WRs come into their own over the next couple of years. I sure hope so!! I don’t even mind if they move back to get a LT. A Stacked OL is a good thing. They can get functional WRs at which ever position they want.
If I was them, I’d move QJ inside. There’s a bunch of X guys in this class. Hasn’t been for a while it seems.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Herbert to JJ would be out of this world. I guess if Harbaugh likes McCarthy that much and wants to start on a rookie contract it makes sense with the run first mentality. Would allow the Chargers to load up on picks and give them a lot of flexibility with building it the way the regime wants to. For MIN it would give them a great QB to match O’Connell’s passing attack. It actually makes a lot of sense for both squads.
Tau837
Footballguy
Aside from the fact that McCarthy will never actually be as good as Herbert, making this a downgrade, It's not feasible. They would have more than $100M in dead cap to eat in 2024/2025. They don't have any ability to clear substantial 2024 cap space any more, they already made their big moves in releasing Williams and Kendricks, trading Allen, and restructuring Bosa and Mack. And to incur a $95M 2025 cap hit would be counter to fielding a winning roster. Plus, Harbaugh is known to have taken the Chargers job in part because of his excitement to work with Herbert.
It's not happening. At this time of year, it pays to consider the source.
Tau837
Footballguy
No, it doesn't make any sense at all for the Chargers. It would hamstring their ability to field a competitive roster until 2026. That would be counter to everything everyone including ownership, GM Hortiz, and HC Harbaugh have said.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Agree to disagree. Again I am just basing my statement off what Harbaugh said about McCarthy being the number one pick. Of course that was probably coach speak, but if they are going to run 60% of the time do you really need Herbert? Honestly most of my statement comes from my selfish dynasty team desires (Herbert & JJ).
Tau837
Footballguy
Of course Harbaugh said that.
- He wants to help his former player McCarthy get drafted as high as possible.
- He wants some other team to draft McCarthy at #4 after the first 3 draft picks are used on QBs Williams, Maye, and Daniels. That would give the Chargers the top non-QB pick. He has been quoted on how valuable that is.
You have to remember, we are officially in "lying season" now. A lot of what is said nowadays is said for effect.
And I repeat, trading Herbert is not affordable from a cap perspective. It's not happening.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Like I said, I understand it is mostly coach speak. Now knowing the cap implications it certainly does not make any sense for the Chargers. If that was not an issue it certainly would be more plausible.
Todem
Footballguy
Yeah lunacy.....and most likely h******t.
Todem
Footballguy
I don't think McCarthy is even gonna make it long term in the NFL
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I disagree, when you have a Harbaugh/Roman led offense it does cause for pause. After learning the cap ramifications it does equal lunacy.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
This is a logical debate and I agree. However if Harbaugh was in love with him as much as he says he is and wants a run-first offense it seems like a waste of Herbert’s potential imo. Obviously it makes no financial sense.
I believe three things to be true:
1. Harbaughs comments about how high he is on McCarthy are 100% sincere. Michigan had 18 players at the combine. Is he pumping anyone else up like that? Can anyone cite history of him pumping up one of his players ever like that? And to those who think he said it to get teams to increase the value I'd remind those people he was saying these things well before he took the Chargers job.
2. If not for item #3 I believe if he got McCarthy at 5 or by moving up a little and a haul for Herbert he'd be in better position to build the team he wants to build.
3. Herbert is virtually impossible to trade due to the dead cap hits.
1. Harbaughs comments about how high he is on McCarthy are 100% sincere. Michigan had 18 players at the combine. Is he pumping anyone else up like that? Can anyone cite history of him pumping up one of his players ever like that? And to those who think he said it to get teams to increase the value I'd remind those people he was saying these things well before he took the Chargers job.
2. If not for item #3 I believe if he got McCarthy at 5 or by moving up a little and a haul for Herbert he'd be in better position to build the team he wants to build.
3. Herbert is virtually impossible to trade due to the dead cap hits.
As to point #1, Harbaugh did say he thought Aidan Hutchinson could be a future NFL HOFer when he came out, and thought it was crazy that he wasn't the #1 pick.
I do think Harbaugh took the Chargers job, mainly because of Herbert's presence. If he truly preferred McCarthy to him, he could have taken the Washington job.
Point 3 is the main thing though. It doesn't matter what anyone thinks. Herbert is the 4th highest guaranteed money guy in the NFL. The dead cap hit, would be 110 million. 43% of the team salary.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Washington didn’t want that dinasour.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Pumping up McCarthy seems like an obvious attempt to make the #5 pick more valuable - whether a team is desperate for a QB with McCarthy on the board at 5, or McCarthy goes at 4 and someone will pay a premium for Harrison or Nabers.
They're not trading Herbert unless someone comes along with a Herschel Walker + type of deal that also gives cap relief. Which isn't going to happen.
They're not trading Herbert unless someone comes along with a Herschel Walker + type of deal that also gives cap relief. Which isn't going to happen.
You can:
1. Believe Harbaugh is actually sincere about a QB he just won a championship with and lost one game in two years.
Or
2. Believe Harbaugh knew back early in the college football season, when he started pumping him up, that he'd leave Michigan, take the Chargers job, have pick 5 and benefit from McCarthy going top 4.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I don't see some kind of dichotomy. I'm sure he believes he's a great kid and a great prospect, while also hoping hyping him up now works out in Chargers' favor. What I don't see is that Harbaugh hyping up McCarthy means they're trading Herbert.
Tau837
Footballguy
Two things can be true (and are true IMO):
- Harbaugh believes McCarthy is the best QB in this draft.
- Harbaugh prefers to keep Herbert and use the #5 pick for valuable asset(s) other than McCarthy.
I have in zero way, absolutely zero way, refuted that one iota. Don't get it mixed up. I'm simply pointing out not everything is a lie and his fondness for McCarthy is legit.
Tau837
Footballguy
Cool, we agree. Earlier in the thread, I referenced "lying season" and the need to consider the source nowadays. I didn't mean to include Harbaugh in that... I meant the media outlets that are speculating about Herbert getting traded.
All good and was not even pointing that comment at you.
I've been trying to push back on two thoughts:
Trading Herbert being the first one due mainly to the money but also because he's probably a big reason Harbaugh took the job.
And the other thing is that Harbaugh is only talking up JJ because he played for him or he's trying to improve the value of pick 5. The first part of that is at least plausible, but from the bottom of my heart I don't think Jim is playing like that, this is how he feels. But he's married to Herbert now.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Really depends on how far people have downgraded him since he lost most of his weapons.
He's around QB6 for me and I can't see him greatly improving on that regardless.
He's around QB6 for me and I can't see him greatly improving on that regardless.
wlwiles
Footballguy
Assuming we're talking fantasy purposes.
QB7 right now (behind Allen, Mahomes, Stroud, Burrow, Hurts, Lamar in whatever order you like)
QB4 at the end of the season if LAC takes MHJ/Nabers/Rome and they shine as a rookie.
