Balco
Footballguy
I think they are two different styles of runners (and I still think Pollard can be a solid back).
Warren reminds me so much of Ray Rice with the way he runs - if he got 20 touches a game he would be a top 3-5 running back.
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RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Warren reminds me so much of Ray Rice with the way he runs - if he got 20 touches a game he would be a top 3-5 running back.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
- RB40 8 touches
- RB20 10 touches
- RB30 11 touches
- RB18 14 touches
- RB26 12 touches
- bye
- RB24 7 touches
- RB36 9 touches
- RB16 14 touches
- RB11 17 touches
- RB2 12 touches
He has been an every week starter whether you recognized it or not
You don't have to wait until he is entrenched or has supplanted, he's quite productive as a supplement
You don't have to wish he would get XX touches - he does just fine with his 11.4 (& trending upward)
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Also has Bengals and Cardinals coming up. Got to be worth a flex?
JamboTaylor
Footballguy
Decent RB2/3 next year?
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
@Bri - what's your hunch on the better scheme fit (between Harris and Warren) for Arthur Smith's offensive play design and play calling?
It's been a while since he had a QB that didn't require half field reads. Not sure where Russ/Fields are in comparison to Tannehill and Ridder in terms of how AS will design and deploy plays/ scheme. My highly uninformed take was that the Arthur Smith offense is predicated on running to set up play action back in the TEN days. I didn't watch much Falcons ball in the past few years. Those titans passing offenses were low volume/ high efficiency with AJB doing AJB things as the engine of the passing game. Pickens <<< AJB.
I also seem to recall quite a bit of efficiency at the goal line in those offenses with three outcomes that were hard to stop. Henry rushing TDs, passing to AJB and Tannehill running it in. Tannehill's low end QB1 seasons were always helped with a handful of rushing TDs.
Anyway, my hunch is Najee and Warren will split reps but that could easily be like last year, 8-12 rushes for Warren and 10-16 for Najee. Najee a mid tier RB2, Warren a low end RB2/ flex--each with decent injury contingent upside. Najee's ability in the passing game caps Warren's weekly upside. A decent portion of their upside also relies on the Steelers offense being able to actually score TDs which is anything but a sure thing at this point.
In writing this out, I'm now realizing that PPG is going to be running the ball 30+ times a game. If the OLine can run block, they're just going to be running the piss out of the ball.
It's been a while since he had a QB that didn't require half field reads. Not sure where Russ/Fields are in comparison to Tannehill and Ridder in terms of how AS will design and deploy plays/ scheme. My highly uninformed take was that the Arthur Smith offense is predicated on running to set up play action back in the TEN days. I didn't watch much Falcons ball in the past few years. Those titans passing offenses were low volume/ high efficiency with AJB doing AJB things as the engine of the passing game. Pickens <<< AJB.
I also seem to recall quite a bit of efficiency at the goal line in those offenses with three outcomes that were hard to stop. Henry rushing TDs, passing to AJB and Tannehill running it in. Tannehill's low end QB1 seasons were always helped with a handful of rushing TDs.
Anyway, my hunch is Najee and Warren will split reps but that could easily be like last year, 8-12 rushes for Warren and 10-16 for Najee. Najee a mid tier RB2, Warren a low end RB2/ flex--each with decent injury contingent upside. Najee's ability in the passing game caps Warren's weekly upside. A decent portion of their upside also relies on the Steelers offense being able to actually score TDs which is anything but a sure thing at this point.
In writing this out, I'm now realizing that PPG is going to be running the ball 30+ times a game. If the OLine can run block, they're just going to be running the piss out of the ball.
His Titans had a very good OL. He was an excellent red zone coordinator before he was OC.
His Falcons were supposed to have an excellent OL but did not. They played horribly til around week 8-10 and even then had some bad series. His DL suffered injuries and was also way worse than expected.
As a former lineman, as a Gibbs understudy, he's going to make sure they win the LOS and if they do, he can do whatever he wants. This meshes w Steelers well although they can use some trenches help.
Jonnu and Delanie held the corner very well and also boxed out to catch tough passes very well. Henry thrived running behind LT/TE. Lewan (if stats were tracked historically) probably has a best ever stat with runs averaging around 7.5 per carry behind he and the TE. Idk if the Steelers have that tackle, we'll find out, but they seem to have the TEs for it. He'll also put the blocking TE in the slot to get a better angle. He's owning that corner.
Bijan would oh so often try to do similar but Pitts isn't winning that block and the line issue. When they got it together, so did Bijan.
I've asked people which back turns the corner lays a hit or absorbs a hit and takes it up field. They all seem to disagree on Warren or Najee. I'd say Najee was the more popular vote when I asked but not by much.
When it doesn't work, he won't give up. He'll call some pass plays and some just smash it up the middle plays then come back to it.
I expect Patterson to be a Steeler. He'll smash those and coach the other backs. He'll play outside and maybe KR and be the useful swiss army knife he is. There's never been a coach that didn't adore the guy so I've got a hard time believing Tomlin wouldn't welcome him with open arms.
The way I see it, if Patterson is there, I'm not taking a Steelers RB. He'll get enough GL carries to wreck a RBs production that was a share anyway.
I also wouldn't be surprised if they drafted a RB. Steelers have had lots of top backs over the years and these two are not. Their fans say they are but if you think the Bus or Foster etc there's no dawg there. Najee is supposed to be, was drafted to be, and hopefully will be but I am concerned he hasn't shown it this far.
That big back during the combine TV highlights...he had me wondering if he's a future Steeler.
Tomlin and Arthur are identical in wanting to smash the football and dominate the LOS. Smith should mesh perfectly the way Munchak did. The Titans were "Steelers south" on X years ago with Lebeau and so many former Steelers.
Does Tomlin have his main RB that can put the team on his back? I wouldn't be surprised if they drafted (a lineman and) a back, Steelers fans were grumpy about it all summer, then by week four they loved the new guy. They were "raised" on smash mouth play too and it won't take long.
Henry is very approachable so I expect Najee and Warren already called him and he already told them to bulk up and be ready to smash or whatever.
Sorry this isn't much help yet long, I'm really uncertain if they have their star. They have good backs but idk if they're stars. Foster and The Bus were top few in the NFL in rushing. Those two have never sniffed that.
Just wrote in Steelers thread.
Still capable of a lot but like most of us as we get older, just not a lot at one time
He seems like a future coach.
Still a nice swiss army knife to have in the toolbox.
I think it wrecks FF value of a share. He's complimentary type and great teammate so he won't be a problem in NFL world but the situation was already stressy for us in FF. He still a beast at the GL and Warren and Najee are worth so much less if they lose just a few TDs. I won't be touching it in FF.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not seeing it at this pointJust wrote in Steelers thread.
Still capable of a lot but like most of us as we get older, just not a lot at one time
He seems like a future coach.
Still a nice swiss army knife to have in the toolbox.
I think it wrecks FF value of a share. He's complimentary type and great teammate so he won't be a problem in NFL world but the situation was already stressy for us in FF. He still a beast at the GL and Warren and Najee are worth so much less if they lose just a few TDs. I won't be touching it in FF.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Won’t help in 99% of fantasy leagues
Marauder
Footballguy
But it won't hurt either. The point is, he's not much of a threat to take touches away from Warren or Najee.
I think the signing was more Arthur Smith related than returner related
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He'll have a role. I don't believe it will impact Najee or Warren. Could get some receiving action, but probably more a ST & breather back guy. Maybe a gadget play or 2. I agree this was Arthur Smith getting an Arthur Smith guy.
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He spent three years w Arthur. He's been on many teams and adored. There's Tomlin from 2022. Patterson simply a real good guy whose reputation precedes him. Any day now there will be a current quote. Tomlin is surely happy to have him. I wouldn't call him an Arthur guy as a negative- everyone seems to love him
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Grid71
Footballguy
Taking the flip side here. CP signing brings an experienced guy over to ASmith offense. Could see him poach carries especially early in the season. He will be a valuable asset to help Warren and Najee adjust. His presence will help the starters become more effective.
See Najee as more of a thumper who builds up steam falling forward and punish defenders who try to arm tackle. Most effective with a head of steam running downhill knowing which gap he should hit before the snap. East/West movement kills momentum and he is done. I don't know if this is a big concern for Wide Zone plays letting him build up steam. Tomlin seems to favor Najee, so he is a safer bet not to end up on the sideline.
Warren is tough, quick and fast. Vision above average. Can be lethal when he can run with patience and attack any gap or bounce outside. Quick acceleration when he makes a move. My guess, Warren will be >> more effective than Najee but the split will remain close. Najee wears em down and Warren makes bigger plays. Both have good hands as checkdown option. Anticipate an uptick at RB receptions.
Underdog draft, they went back to back RB middle of round 8 today. Najee then Warren. Best ball 12 team, start 3wr 2rb 1te 1 flex. Both RB appear to be nice value considering the volume is a virtual lock. Should be solid plug n play RB with high floor and occasional spike weeks.
My exposure on Warren is too high at 29%, most owned RB, so I have been mixing in shares of other players in this range unless he falls too far.
Najee exposure 18% which seems right for a player being drafted closer to his floor than ceiling.
See Najee as more of a thumper who builds up steam falling forward and punish defenders who try to arm tackle. Most effective with a head of steam running downhill knowing which gap he should hit before the snap. East/West movement kills momentum and he is done. I don't know if this is a big concern for Wide Zone plays letting him build up steam. Tomlin seems to favor Najee, so he is a safer bet not to end up on the sideline.
Warren is tough, quick and fast. Vision above average. Can be lethal when he can run with patience and attack any gap or bounce outside. Quick acceleration when he makes a move. My guess, Warren will be >> more effective than Najee but the split will remain close. Najee wears em down and Warren makes bigger plays. Both have good hands as checkdown option. Anticipate an uptick at RB receptions.
Underdog draft, they went back to back RB middle of round 8 today. Najee then Warren. Best ball 12 team, start 3wr 2rb 1te 1 flex. Both RB appear to be nice value considering the volume is a virtual lock. Should be solid plug n play RB with high floor and occasional spike weeks.
My exposure on Warren is too high at 29%, most owned RB, so I have been mixing in shares of other players in this range unless he falls too far.
Najee exposure 18% which seems right for a player being drafted closer to his floor than ceiling.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Patterson is irrelevant to Harris and Warren. Harris looked great down the stretch. Warren’s best scenario is the Steelers don’t pickup his 5th year option.
Grid71
Footballguy
In the RB room and talking about AS plays he's familiar with, CP should help the guys adjust faster. I'm not worried about taking a few touches away because there will be plenty.
Agree Harris looked FAR better down the stretch. Rudolph forced the D to back off because he was punishing them for leaving Pickens singled up or over rotating freeing up space for Muth and Diontae. Warren had 1 bad game where he fumbled the ball away and Najee didn't. Coach seemed to lean on Najee a bit more after that. 2024 I'm betting on Warren working out better in the wide zone concept vs Najee. Both should be productive. Will see how it goes.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not true, his overall average was 4.1 YPC. I then checked last 9 games and it was 4.3.
| REGULAR SEASON STATS | 255 | 1,035 | 4.1 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 38 | 170 | 5.9 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 1 |
There is also a bit more nuance involved then just YPC. Down and distance, trailing or leading, goal line vs not, etc,etc.
metoo
Footballguy
Looks like I looked at his career average(3.9). Still Warren average more than a yard more. To me Warren looked better and averaged more yards.
metoo
Footballguy
It it were closer, I would agree but over a yard more is a big difference.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You can't dismiss how the two looked down the stretch. Harris looked better.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Well, with coaches it's probably what have you done for me lately. Tomlin trusted Harris more down the stretch. I'm glad I sold my only share of Harris and I like Warren. I have a couple of shares.
Grid71
Footballguy
Fun debate.
Najee is the safer pick and has 3down back pedigree. Underrated as a pass catcher. Also another year recovered from the injury that slowed him down. Tomlin wants him to be the lead back as long as he keeps the offense on schedule. My concern is Arthur Smith wide zone blocking may not suit a power up the middle running back who doesn’t have great burst.
Warren is faster and far more explosive. A perfectly blocked play, Warren can break a long TD vs a 15 yard gain from Najee. Warren runs surprisingly tough capable of breaking tackles. He’s not easy to bring down. Offers Tomlin the luxury of reducing Najee’s workload with better production. Warren has been the more effective back for two seasons yet stuck in number 2 role.
Who should you bet on? Whomever you like better. Both will get carries. I bet on both at their current ADP leaning towards Warren for higher upside. Think he is a better scheme fit for zone blocking.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I think it sucks for fantasy for both players, unless one is removed from the picture. It's going to be an even split, or slight advantage Harris otherwise. I hope the Steelers don't pickup Harris' 5th year option after this season. That would clear the future for Warren, unless they draft a stud next year, but you can't think about that now. If they pickup Harris' 5th year, then all bets are off with Warren in 2025. Injuries notwithstanding.
