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RB Kareem Hunt, CLE (2 Viewers)

fruity pebbles said:
Was just offered Hunt for Dalvin Cook and a 2nd
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Wow that's a really good offer. Having both Cook and Hunt it's hard for me to really evaluate. But that'd be very hard for me to turn down. Cook may or may not be as good or better than Hunt. 

It really comes down to whether you believe Cook is as good as what you saw from Hunt. I assume you invested a late 2nd-to-mid-3rd in cook? 

The 2nd round pick is next year? 

A fair deal, but it all comes down to your expectations for Cook. 

 
Hankmoody said:
His point was you lose the opportunity to sell high very quickly.  Waiting won't do much to increase his value, but it can burst that bubble very, very quickly. 
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the flaw in this argument is that Hunt's value is currently as high as it will ever be.  That is likely not the case.  You have many people out there who want to see him do it again.  One good game and all that.

So, you are likely not going to get the most that you potentially could for him by selling now.  You're not prying an AJG or OBJ off a team based on that one performance.  But, if he backs it up next week with a big game, then the ceiling on his value just went up and those guys become more realistic targets.  If he has a bad game, yes, it could come down.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Wow that's a really good offer. Having both Cook and Hunt it's hard for me to really evaluate. But that'd be very hard for me to turn down. Cook may or may not be as good or better than Hunt. 

It really comes down to whether you believe Cook is as good as what you saw from Hunt. I assume you invested a late 2nd-to-mid-3rd in cook? 

The 2nd round pick is next year? 

A fair deal, but it all comes down to your expectations for Cook. 
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16 team dynasty league. Cook went 1.05. Hunt 1.10. I think they are equally as talented but pulled the trigger. 2nd rounder next year is obviously a crapshoot. Think Hunt will be worth more than Cook at years end due mainly to situation and surrounding cast.

 
fruity pebbles said:
16 team dynasty league. Cook went 1.05. Hunt 1.10. I think they are equally as talented but pulled the trigger. 2nd rounder next year is obviously a crapshoot. Think Hunt will be worth more than Cook at years end due mainly to situation and surrounding cast.
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It's tough - the sell high crowd benefits a bit because hey, they already got the ~40 point game & you won't. But I think you made a good deal. I love both these guys but I'd pull the trigger there myself. Both good long term prospects. I think your trade partner just wanted the 2nd rounder. 

I like it for you - you have a more proven commodity. Maybe Cook lays an egg. I hope not because I need him, but it's a fair deal regardless. 

 
zoonation said:
the flaw in this argument is that Hunt's value is currently as high as it will ever be.  That is likely not the case.  You have many people out there who want to see him do it again.  One good game and all that.

So, you are likely not going to get the most that you potentially could for him by selling now.  You're not prying an AJG or OBJ off a team based on that one performance.  But, if he backs it up next week with a big game, then the ceiling on his value just went up and those guys become more realistic targets.  If he has a bad game, yes, it could come down.
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Big difference between "value" and what someone will pay for him. If he has another great game, his owners' asking price will go up, but the actual buyers probably won't move much. 

People are emotional. To trade a star WR for Hunt, they'd have to admit 1. they screwed up by not taking him and 2. they need to abandon a high draft pick early in the year. Not gonna happen imo. The "risk" of buying high will make them hesitant. If you have Hunt (I do in one league) your best bet is to keep him, unless you're willing to be a lot more modest with your asking price, not more aggressive. 

The gap between what you think he's worth and what someone would actually pay is likely quite large. He could rattle off three 100-yard games in a row and the OBJ owner probably wouldn't make that trade. I think people looking to sell will be pretty disappointed. 

 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
Big difference between "value" and what someone will pay for him. If he has another great game, his owners' asking price will go up, but the actual buyers probably won't move much. 

People are emotional. To trade a star WR for Hunt, they'd have to admit 1. they screwed up by not taking him and 2. they need to abandon a high draft pick early in the year. Not gonna happen imo. The "risk" of buying high will make them hesitant. If you have Hunt (I do in one league) your best bet is to keep him, unless you're willing to be a lot more modest with your asking price, not more aggressive. 

The gap between what you think he's worth and what someone would actually pay is likely quite large. He could rattle off three 100-yard games in a row and the OBJ owner probably wouldn't make that trade. I think people looking to sell will be pretty disappointed. 
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I think that's valid. But I also think that onl applies to a % of managers. 

There are other types of managers who feel like they F'd up. They have buyer's remorse on a Brandon Cooks or Gronk. Maybe they wanted an elite RB but picked 8th so took Evans or Green. 

Or maybe they went WR-heavy with a plan in mind then missed all their RB targets (happened to me last year). 

And maybe the Hunt owner went RB-heavy & missed their WR targets. (This also happened to me last year.)

There are always many reasons for a trade to make sense. In the case of the WR-heavy team last year I couldn't find a trade partner & my team languished & died. No one wanted to part with a RB 

In the RB-heavy draft I managed to deal my Freeman (2.08) in a package for my trade partner's Evans (2.07). I missed Evans by 1 pick, and really wanted him. When I offered the deal, he was psyched because he didn't realize Freeman was on the board when he took Evans and he wanted the RB.

Back to the original point, when it comes to trade, Hunt's value & perceived value have different iterations for every scenario. But I'm of the opinion also that even a decent game that shows his usage as a feature back will indeed solidify his role in people's minds, opening the door to more, if not better trades. And the more people you can get interested, the better your return can be.

as for elevating Hunt's value in his owners eyes, that's unpossible. He just scored 60 for me in a yardage bonus league. His value to me could not be higherz :wub:  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I think that's valid. But I also think that onl applies to a % of managers. 

There are other types of managers who feel like they F'd up. They have buyer's remorse on a Brandon Cooks or Gronk. Maybe they wanted an elite RB but picked 8th so took Evans or Green. 

Or maybe they went WR-heavy with a plan in mind then missed all their RB targets (happened to me last year). 

And maybe the Hunt owner went RB-heavy & missed their WR targets. (This also happened to me last year.)

There are always many reasons for a trade to make sense. In the case of the WR-heavy team last year I couldn't find a trade partner & my team languished & died. No one wanted to part with a RB 

In the RB-heavy draft I managed to deal my Freeman (2.08) in a package for my trade partner's Evans (2.07). I missed Evans by 1 pick, and really wanted him. When I offered the deal, he was psyched because he didn't realize Freeman was on the board when he took Evans and he wanted the RB.

Back to the original point, when it comes to trade, Hunt's value & perceived value have different iterations for every scenario. But I'm of the opinion also that even a decent game that shows his usage as a feature back will indeed solidify his role in people's minds, opening the door to more, if not better trades. And the more people you can get interested, the better your return can be.

as for elevating Hunt's value in his owners eyes, that's unpossible. He just scored 60 for me in a yardage bonus league. His value to me could not be higherz :wub:  
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I can see how a package that included Freeman for Evans made sense in that scenario. Nobody gave up a high pick for a much later pick. 

I've found trading to be at least 75 percent emotional. If you feel like you're buying high while your opponent (we're all opponents) nabs a top pick of yours thanks to a late pickup, you feel like you "lost" at the draft. And that might be true. But nobody wants to feel that way.

I think only a minority of owners would objectively look at the situation and even consider that kind of concession after a few weeks. I think most would rather face the consequences than concede to someone else's wisdom.

Losing owners tend to get more stubborn, not less. That's been my experience, anyway. But we'll see. In the league where I have him, I'm not looking to trade him. In the league I don't, I'm not looking to trade for him. 

 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
I can see how a package that included Freeman for Evans made sense in that scenario. Nobody gave up a high pick for a much later pick. 

I've found trading to be at least 75 percent emotional. If you feel like you're buying high while your opponent (we're all opponents) nabs a top pick of yours thanks to a late pickup, you feel like you "lost" at the draft. And that might be true. But nobody wants to feel that way.

I think only a minority of owners would objectively look at the situation and even consider that kind of concession after a few weeks. I think most would rather face the consequences than concede to someone else's wisdom.

Losing owners tend to get more stubborn, not less. That's been my experience, anyway. But we'll see. In the league where I have him, I'm not looking to trade him. In the league I don't, I'm not looking to trade for him. 
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I think that's a good observation. 

The age old definition of a "good deal" is when both parties walk away feeling they got the better of the other party. 

And while I get what you're saying, you also have to take into account that we're not talking apples to apples with Hunt. At the time most people drafted, Hunt was a speculative backup or handcuff. Then Ware went down and he was elevated to a 5-6-7th round selection, with the caveat that Ware could be back in "2-8 weeks" (the initial timetable). 

Finally word that Ware is out for the year followed quickly by Reid tabbing Hunt "feature back", and Hunt jumped to the 3rd, and even late 2nd round. And for those drafting today, including the biggest money leagues like WCOFF and FFTOC, I guarantee Hunt & his 50+'are 1st round material, 1.03 or later, possibly even 1.01 in some leagues. He may not be Bell or DJ, but his 50 plays. 

Anyway, point is that valuation changes fast in the NFL. Just because Hunt was a 5-6-7-8th rounder doesn't mean that's his trade value today. Were I stacked at WR and desperate for RB help, I'd certainly float a trade for Hunt if I thought he was on the block. If you're team AJ Green/Amari Cooper/Tate/M.Bryant and your RBs suck eggs, wouldn't the Hunt owner be able to put a package together to net Green? 

Seems to me they would. Not that most Hunt owners are looking to do that, but some might be. Some may not be believers either.

For that reason it seems to me that if someone wants to obtain Hunt, the window is short. Buy now because a decent week with feature back carries is much more convincing to all, including that Hunt owner.

for the Hunt owners who want to sell, next week could bring even more in return, as many have suggested here. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I think that's a good observation. 

The age old definition of a "good deal" is when both parties walk away feeling they got the better of the other party. 

And while I get what you're saying, you also have to take into account that we're not talking apples to apples with Hunt. At the time most people drafted, Hunt was a speculative backup or handcuff. Then Ware went down and he was elevated to a 5-6-7th round selection, with the caveat that Ware could be back in "2-8 weeks" (the initial timetable). 

Finally word that Ware is out for the year followed quickly by Reid tabbing Hunt "feature back", and Hunt jumped to the 3rd, and even late 2nd round. And for those drafting today, including the biggest money leagues like WCOFF and FFTOC, I guarantee Hunt & his 50+'are 1st round material, 1.03 or later, possibly even 1.01 in some leagues. He may not be Bell or DJ, but his 50 plays. 

Anyway, point is that valuation changes fast in the NFL. Just because Hunt was a 5-6-7-8th rounder doesn't mean that's his trade value today. Were I stacked at WR and desperate for RB help, I'd certainly float a trade for Hunt if I thought he was on the block. If you're team AJ Green/Amari Cooper/Tate/M.Bryant and your RBs suck eggs, wouldn't the Hunt owner be able to put a package together to net Green? 

Seems to me they would. Not that most Hunt owners are looking to do that, but some might be. Some may not be believers either.

For that reason it seems to me that if someone wants to obtain Hunt, the window is short. Buy now because a decent week with feature back carries is much more convincing to all, including that Hunt owner.

for the Hunt owners who want to sell, next week could bring even more in return, as many have suggested here. 
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See, I think a lot of owners are like you. You're already smitten, and you're not going to part with that new toy (and its potential) unless someone is already going to pay top dollar. 
I also think buyers are skeptical and don't want to admit they might have screwed up and now have to pay. Put those two forces together, and I don't see much movement on either side no matter what happens next week.

If he runs for 68 yards and catches for 23 yards, a buyer will say he's come back to earth. You'll say he got you nine points in an off game, like many RB1s do. Your ask isn't going down, and their bid certainly isn't going to go up. No change in the gap.

If he runs for 120, adds 40 receiving and scores, he's cemented as a RB1 to you. The buyer now feels like they've missed out on more points and is more likely to have a "sour grapes" attitude. Your ask skyrocketed, and the buyer will probably want to snub you just to show they're not going to let you dictate terms.

Again, this is all emotional on their part. But so would your rationalization of a <70-yard rushing day. So people who want to actually sell Hunt will be disappointed at the market, and buyers will be frustrated at finding Canton prices. 

I feel like I'm a little more objective because I can't trade him. PPR league (two flex spots) and I kept Julio. I then went WR-WR-WR (M. Thomas, Baldwin, K. Allen). So I'm stacked at WR (by far the best in a 14-team league) but knew I'd suffer at RB, and I did. Hunt could be a surprise RB1, a decent RB2 or just a guy. I have little choice but to find out. Whatever he's worth, I need whatever points he can offer at RB. 
 

 
zoonation said:
Hankmoody said:
His point was you lose the opportunity to sell high very quickly.  Waiting won't do much to increase his value, but it can burst that bubble very, very quickly. 
Click to expand...
the flaw in this argument is that Hunt's value is currently as high as it will ever be.  That is likely not the case.  You have many people out there who want to see him do it again.  One good game and all that.

So, you are likely not going to get the most that you potentially could for him by selling now.  You're not prying an AJG or OBJ off a team based on that one performance.  But, if he backs it up next week with a big game, then the ceiling on his value just went up and those guys become more realistic targets.  If he has a bad game, yes, it could come down.
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That isn't what I said at all. 

 
NREC34 said:
You'll be able to get Evans and David Johnson if you just wait a week or two.

Duh.  
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I don't think you're going to see any Mike Evans for Hakeem Hunt trades happening (in dynasty...maybe you will in redraft) - it would take a couple of weeks of production for his value to increase.

 
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Neil Beaufort Zod said:
See, I think a lot of owners are like you. You're already smitten, and you're not going to part with that new toy (and its potential) unless someone is already going to pay top dollar. 
I also think buyers are skeptical and don't want to admit they might have screwed up and now have to pay. Put those two forces together, and I don't see much movement on either side no matter what happens next week.

If he runs for 68 yards and catches for 23 yards, a buyer will say he's come back to earth. You'll say he got you nine points in an off game, like many RB1s do. Your ask isn't going down, and their bid certainly isn't going to go up. No change in the gap.

If he runs for 120, adds 40 receiving and scores, he's cemented as a RB1 to you. The buyer now feels like they've missed out on more points and is more likely to have a "sour grapes" attitude. Your ask skyrocketed, and the buyer will probably want to snub you just to show they're not going to let you dictate terms.

Again, this is all emotional on their part. But so would your rationalization of a <70-yard rushing day. So people who want to actually sell Hunt will be disappointed at the market, and buyers will be frustrated at finding Canton prices. 

I feel like I'm a little more objective because I can't trade him. PPR league (two flex spots) and I kept Julio. I then went WR-WR-WR (M. Thomas, Baldwin, K. Allen). So I'm stacked at WR (by far the best in a 14-team league) but knew I'd suffer at RB, and I did. Hunt could be a surprise RB1, a decent RB2 or just a guy. I have little choice but to find out. Whatever he's worth, I need whatever points he can offer at RB. 
 
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I agree with this too - you're likely right. You coulen pry Hunt from my cold dead hands. But the league I've got him in I'm stacked with Cook/TyMont/Hunt/Perkins/AJGreen/Tate/M.Bryant. So unless someone really wows me with an offer I have need. 

Its not so much I can't be bought because I'm so in love with him, it's just that I don't need him.

but I agree that there are many who fit your description for sure. 

 
zoonation said:
You have many people out there who want to see him do it again.  One good game and all that.
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I am not looking to trade him any format but was talking to a couple of the guys in my league about him and their responses covered all every angle. One guy thinks he is in the DJ, Bell, Zeke tier. The other guy thought it was more like Ajayi, Howard, Gurley tier. The 3rd guy said Jerome Harrison 2.0 .

 
Ilov80s said:
I am not looking to trade him any format but was talking to a couple of the guys in my league about him and their responses covered all every angle. One guy thinks he is in the DJ, Bell, Zeke tier. The other guy thought it was more like Ajayi, Howard, Gurley tier. The 3rd guy said Jerome Harrison 2.0 .
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My 1st thought was this was 2010 Arian Foster all over again, where some people just refused to buy in, and some insisted the guy behind him(Ben Tate) would eventually prove to be better.

Hunt does a lot of the same things Foster does, especially playing above his timed speed and being very smooth as a pass catcher. Also, like Foster, Hunt is in an extremely RB friendly offense, with a coach who has gotten elite production from several different guys over the years. 

 
looked great..tap the breaks on the HOF talk just yet..tap them like you're coming up to a flashing yellow light..;-)

Pats looked incredibly silly on defense..just plain comical..just worried that Hunt played the NFL's worst defense in 2017 and blew them up..lets see what happens in week 2..but he looked really really good.

 
Tanner9919 said:
looked great..tap the breaks on the HOF talk just yet..tap them like you're coming up to a flashing yellow light..;-)

Pats looked incredibly silly on defense..just plain comical..just worried that Hunt played the NFL's worst defense in 2017 and blew them up..lets see what happens in week 2..but he looked really really good.
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That would be a pretty big surprise. At the very least New England is almost certainly the best defense in the AFC East. I think KC was just a really bad matchup for New England, I think the Pats could still easily be a top-10 defense this year. 

 
travdogg said:
That would be a pretty big surprise. At the very least New England is almost certainly the best defense in the AFC East. I think KC was just a really bad matchup for New England, I think the Pats could still easily be a top-10 defense this year. 
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This game is going to present a lot of opportunities for savvy owners.  If you can pry the NE def for peanuts, you're getting the BUF/NYJ games while not getting nicked for this last one.  Ground, Brady, Cooks...marone you might be able to get an impatient owner to take 85 cents on the dollar.

 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
1.4? Redraft? Wow, that's high. 

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'd be interested to know how that turned out, and where he went.
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I ended up picking 7. Missed top 4 RBs, and Brown/Evans. Took Hunt 1.07

at that point I liked the 50 points & im high on him as a feature back.

Baldwin 2.06, Ty Mont, Tate, Diggs, but then IDP caused everything to fly into chaos as always. ;)

i can live with it. Got a huge advantage in week 1, and that seemed like fair value. also AJ Green was my 1st pick in my other league & I wanted to diversify. 

 
The thing that I like about Hunt is that he is a smart football player, in the sense of reading the defense, instincts, spatial awareness. I would call this a strength of his overall game and having several tools in terms of elusive moves, pad level, a good stiff arm, balance to use his blocking and also create on his own.

I think these traits are something you see him demonstrate in every game and these skills have shown to translate to the next level of competition. I think these traits are sustainable and should lead to Hunt being a productive player in Andy Reids offense for the foreseeable future. A few more good games and there won't be much question about that for 2018 and beyond.

As much as I have pushed back against the combine scores, that is something that made me question of he would be fast enough, athletic enough for his game to translate to the next level. He clearly seems to be. So there really isn't much reason to doubt this anymore. 

The vision and instincts are traits that I am not sure you can teach and some players never develop to the point I think Hunt is at with that. The way he adjusted to the ball on his first TD is one example of that, there are several others from this game as well. Just a good feel for the flow of plays and good timing. 

 
This will be a fun thread after next week versus the Eagles: 80 total yards, zero scores.  :scared:

I do have him on one team and was fortunate not have played against him but.

I'm also the same dummy that in a one player keeper league traded away rookie AP for Braylon Edwards...

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Hunt/Diggs for Cook/Tate it's a great deal. 
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Its nice having Cook and Hunt and not haviing to think about this.  :)

As far as projections vs the Steelers go I think it could be rough sledding for Cook if Bradford doesn't play. So that would require two different sets of projections.

Cook with Bradford 18 rushing attempts 77 yards 5 targets 4 receptions 36 yards 1 TD

Cook without Bradford 16 rushing attempts 62 yards 5 targets 3 receptions 21 yards 0 TD

The Steelers shut down Clevelands rushing game in week one allowing 2.3 yards per carry and is generally a better run than pass defense.

Long term I value Cook slightly more but would consider Cook and Hunt to be pretty even. So the WR part is something to consider independently. I would rather have Diggs than Tate so that would likely be enough for me to consider the above trade. 

The above mentioned offer would be Tate for Treadwell and Cook slightly more than Hunt, so no incentive to downgrade from Tate.

Treadwell is younger but not producing enough, with Diggs and Theilen ahead of him on the team for opportunities that doesn't look like it will change soon. I am optimistic about Treadwell actually doing some things this year. Like possibly 40 or so receptions by the end of the year. That is a far cry from What Tate has been doing for several years now.

Oops you guys were projecting for Hunt

I will guess 18 rushing attempts 76 yards 6 targets 5 receptions 41 yards 1 TD

The Eagles have a pretty good defense but I consider this a slightly better match up for Hunt than Cook vs the Steelers.

 
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