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RBs being scarfed up in drafts (1 Viewer)

In a ten team I am at 10 and am getting either C. Johnson and a rb I like or two RBs I like. I think that there are enough wrs to make up for it later. Sitting at 4 in a 12 team I have a feeling RB is going to run quick and I am better off taking one the receivers available to me at that point than the RBs there. At the top of a 12 I am going RB/WR/RB. There is definitely an insane run in RB this year for those first three rounds though.
No you're not.
I think you are missing the OR part of the statement.
Not missing it. Don't see why there should really be any plan for Johnson at 10.

Because I keep seeing it happen in mocks. If it Calvin isn't available I am going RB/RB at the end of the first round there is some really good RB/RB combos that are there. From my mocks and drafts I have done, I have found I can still get great value at the WR and QB position later this year specifically because of that run.
 
this has Trent at 1.03, cobb at 3.01 and Sjax at 4.02 so I'm going to disregard it as there is no way to accurately reflects competitive league's ADP. There is no way Kaep is the 3rd QB off the board in the majority of leagues.

 
Reggie Bush is already moving up. The ADPs are going to change radically as we get further into preseason. Almost all of my drafts are at the end of August as are most leagues.

 
LawFitz said:
In start 2 RB (no flex) leagues, I really think you're overdoing it drafting 2 RBs with your first two picks. Generally, you should under-invest in the last starter for a particular position. I.e. wait on RB2 and WR3 in start 2 RB / 3 WR leagues. This leaves flexibility to unearth gems later in the draft or off the wire in season to fill out your roster. Balance among positions and grabbing the safest elite players early in a draft is the best course for success IMO. And due to attrition, no RB is truly as "safe" as an elite WR or QB, which at least partially offsets VBD guidance. That said, the way RBs are flying off the board this year, it's a dangerous game to come out of rd 1 and 2 without your RB1, particularly if you're drafting in the back half of rounds 1 and 3 and/or in >10 team leagues.
I agree with this and try to do the same thing. I like to do my best to lock down all but one starter at each position with elites or studs, this allows me to look for the value guy who slips through or is overlooked, sleeper that hits, etc. But yet the position isn't necessarily weak even of that doesn't pan out and I have a revolving door at that last spot

 
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'' I've e typically waited for my QB til the mid rounds, and will likely go RB or WR in the 2nd round, but youve convinced me that Rodgers or Brees is a better 2nd round pick than Graham. ''

Same here

Funny thing is a lot of the WR/WR advocates here are using that strategy if youre picking late 1st round. Yet Ive typically seen them starting this off in theory with Don Mega. Newsflash, if youre picking late first and using this strategy, youre starting off with AJ Green, not Calvin because he is long gone.
true but I would pick Calvin around 5 and then Julio or late in the first you go Green and then Bryant or Julio. Thats a monster tandem either way that you know pretty damn certain you are going to get points from week one on.
I might Calvin at 5 also

sure I will do a sig bet, 2 out of the 3 finish within 5 spots of Jackson
No, I meant for money. You put $ down on FF dont you?
dude, I am not going to bet some anonymous guy on the internet for money. No offense that sounds gay, if you want to do something on this board then sure. You are taking this a bit too seriously guy
You did say you would bet, did you not?

BTW: Referring to things as gay? What are you, 12?

 
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The funny thing is what changed between this year and last year? Last year most drafts had a bunch of QBs go in the 1st & 2nd round (including Rodgers possibly #1 overall). This year everyone is going RB heavy again and Rodgers is going in the 2nd.
A TON has changed. First off, QB is much deeper this season. Less of a need to grab the top couple of QBs in the first two rounds. RG3, Kap, Wilson and Luck all joined the "Very solid fantasy QB" group. Manning bounced back from injury to join the top of that group as well. But nobody really dropped out of that group.

Secondly, more teams seem to be headed towards RBBC, making lead RBs a tad more valuable. In Stl and Atl, it was SJax and Turner. Now, It's SJax and Pead/Richardson/Stacy. In Denver, it was McGahee. Now it's Moreno/Hillman/Ball. That's just two examples.

TE also lost a late-1st round player in Gronk due to injury.

I don't think we're seeing much or any difference in WR rankings from last season.
agreed with all of the above

 
Took Rodgers at 1.10 in the only 12-team redraft I have done so far this season, and really liking my RBs I got after the fact.

QB: Rodgers

RB: Marshawn Lynch (2.3)

RB: David Wilson (3.10)

WR: Jordy Nelson (4.3)

WR: Mike Wallace (5.10)

WR: Anquan Boldin (6.3)

TE: Antonio Gates (7.10)

RB: Shane Vereen (8.3)

League is a start 1 RB with 1 flex, so plenty fine with the options I have at the position. And my WRs aren't too shabby for waiting until the 4th either.

 
Took Rodgers at 1.10 in the only 12-team redraft I have done so far this season, and really liking my RBs I got after the fact.

QB: Rodgers

RB: Marshawn Lynch (2.3)

RB: David Wilson (3.10)

WR: Jordy Nelson (4.3)

WR: Mike Wallace (5.10)

WR: Anquan Boldin (6.3)

TE: Antonio Gates (7.10)

RB: Shane Vereen (8.3)

League is a start 1 RB with 1 flex, so plenty fine with the options I have at the position. And my WRs aren't too shabby for waiting until the 4th either.
Thats the latest ive seen Vereen go, I'm assuming this is non-ppr.

 
Took Rodgers at 1.10 in the only 12-team redraft I have done so far this season, and really liking my RBs I got after the fact.

QB: Rodgers

RB: Marshawn Lynch (2.3)

RB: David Wilson (3.10)

WR: Jordy Nelson (4.3)

WR: Mike Wallace (5.10)

WR: Anquan Boldin (6.3)

TE: Antonio Gates (7.10)

RB: Shane Vereen (8.3)

League is a start 1 RB with 1 flex, so plenty fine with the options I have at the position. And my WRs aren't too shabby for waiting until the 4th either.
I assume it is PPR, right? Your WRs are really weak for PPR.

 
Took Rodgers at 1.10 in the only 12-team redraft I have done so far this season, and really liking my RBs I got after the fact.

QB: Rodgers

RB: Marshawn Lynch (2.3)

RB: David Wilson (3.10)

WR: Jordy Nelson (4.3)

WR: Mike Wallace (5.10)

WR: Anquan Boldin (6.3)

TE: Antonio Gates (7.10)

RB: Shane Vereen (8.3)

League is a start 1 RB with 1 flex, so plenty fine with the options I have at the position. And my WRs aren't too shabby for waiting until the 4th either.
Thats the latest ive seen Vereen go, I'm assuming this is non-ppr.
Not at all. PPR.

Draft is being held over in the FFA as we speak, with all FBG drafters:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=685039

 
Took Rodgers at 1.10 in the only 12-team redraft I have done so far this season, and really liking my RBs I got after the fact.

QB: Rodgers

RB: Marshawn Lynch (2.3)

RB: David Wilson (3.10)

WR: Jordy Nelson (4.3)

WR: Mike Wallace (5.10)

WR: Anquan Boldin (6.3)

TE: Antonio Gates (7.10)

RB: Shane Vereen (8.3)

League is a start 1 RB with 1 flex, so plenty fine with the options I have at the position. And my WRs aren't too shabby for waiting until the 4th either.
Thats the latest ive seen Vereen go, I'm assuming this is non-ppr.
That's a nice steal for either, but especially PPR.

 
Took Rodgers at 1.10 in the only 12-team redraft I have done so far this season, and really liking my RBs I got after the fact.

QB: Rodgers

RB: Marshawn Lynch (2.3)

RB: David Wilson (3.10)

WR: Jordy Nelson (4.3)

WR: Mike Wallace (5.10)

WR: Anquan Boldin (6.3)

TE: Antonio Gates (7.10)

RB: Shane Vereen (8.3)

League is a start 1 RB with 1 flex, so plenty fine with the options I have at the position. And my WRs aren't too shabby for waiting until the 4th either.
You only have to start 1 RB in this league, hence the reason why they fell.

Starting requirements make a HUGE difference in relative value among positions. Think 1 QB vs 2 QB leagues (mandatory 2 QB leagues, not superflex).

 
Took Rodgers at 1.10 in the only 12-team redraft I have done so far this season, and really liking my RBs I got after the fact.

QB: Rodgers

RB: Marshawn Lynch (2.3)

RB: David Wilson (3.10)

WR: Jordy Nelson (4.3)

WR: Mike Wallace (5.10)

WR: Anquan Boldin (6.3)

TE: Antonio Gates (7.10)

RB: Shane Vereen (8.3)

League is a start 1 RB with 1 flex, so plenty fine with the options I have at the position. And my WRs aren't too shabby for waiting until the 4th either.
You only have to start 1 RB in this league, hence the reason why they fell.

Starting requirements make a HUGE difference in relative value among positions. Think 1 QB vs 2 QB leagues (mandatory 2 QB leagues, not superflex).
Your team doesn't scream PPR to me. Your best picks are backs, but the top one doesn't catch passes. The other two RBs will catch passes, will they get any GL carries? Tough to gauge either's 2013 performance since this is the first time they are going to get significant playing time. Your WRs arent big reception guys. I don't know what the TE situation looked like, but Gates in the 7th is your worst pick. Last year, Gates was 19th amongst TEs in receptions.
 
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Took Rodgers at 1.10 in the only 12-team redraft I have done so far this season, and really liking my RBs I got after the fact.

QB: Rodgers

RB: Marshawn Lynch (2.3)

RB: David Wilson (3.10)

WR: Jordy Nelson (4.3)

WR: Mike Wallace (5.10)

WR: Anquan Boldin (6.3)

TE: Antonio Gates (7.10)

RB: Shane Vereen (8.3)

League is a start 1 RB with 1 flex, so plenty fine with the options I have at the position. And my WRs aren't too shabby for waiting until the 4th either.
You only have to start 1 RB in this league, hence the reason why they fell.

Starting requirements make a HUGE difference in relative value among positions. Think 1 QB vs 2 QB leagues (mandatory 2 QB leagues, not superflex).
Your team doesn't scream PPR to me. Your best picks are backs, but the top one doesn't catch passes. The other two RBs will catch passes, will they get any GL carries? Tough to gauge either's 2013 performance since this is the first time they are going to get significant playing time. Your WRs arent big reception guys. I don't know what the TE situation looked like, but Gates in the 7th is your worst pick. Last year, Gates was 19th amongst TEs in receptions.
Gates finished as TE13 last year in that abortion of a season that San Diego had, All reports indicate that he is quicker than in years, and with the loss of Alexander, he will be leaned on just as much as ever. While he was not my first choice at the pick (Finley and the MIN TE went right before my pick), I think he will be just fine.

Lynch was top-5 in any system. He is just fine as well. Wilson I am extremely high on this year (took him in almost every league I am in). TE is definitely my weak point, but I will get a couple of guys in the next few rounds.

 
Yeah even in standard Bush going outside of the 3rd blows my ####### mind.

 
3. The WR's (Dez, AJ, Marshall) and TE (Graham) we are talking about here are almost all guaranteed to be top 5 performers. I would bet a LOT of money that they will all at least be top 10. Graham is almost certainly going to be the top TE. Even if it's not by a huge margin, you know his bust factor is extremely low. The same with the WR's. Those guys just are not going to bust, unless they get hurt.
So Dez is almost guaranteed a top 5 WR spot despite the fact that he's never had one before? This just shows your bias, which is fine, but realize that your opinion on strategy is being tainted by your forward projections of certain players. I'd say guys like Julio and Dez are far from a guaranteed top 5 spot. They've never done it before, and if anything, Bryant's situation is worse this year (healthy Austin). Meanwhile, you discount Morris' ability to reach a top 5 spot despite the fact that he was RB6 last year and still has no competition for carries. Now I'm not saying my opinion is right and yours is wrong, but understand our biases are affecting our probabilities.
Dez was #3 in PPR last year, no? What am I missing?

 
Yeah even in standard Bush going outside of the 3rd blows my ####### mind.
Yeah, that calculation seems like it is only based on 4 drafts. I guess I don't know how to use it or something.

 
Took Rodgers at 1.10 in the only 12-team redraft I have done so far this season, and really liking my RBs I got after the fact.

QB: Rodgers

RB: Marshawn Lynch (2.3)

RB: David Wilson (3.10)

WR: Jordy Nelson (4.3)

WR: Mike Wallace (5.10)

WR: Anquan Boldin (6.3)

TE: Antonio Gates (7.10)

RB: Shane Vereen (8.3)

League is a start 1 RB with 1 flex, so plenty fine with the options I have at the position. And my WRs aren't too shabby for waiting until the 4th either.
those wr's are putrid

 
Took Rodgers at 1.10 in the only 12-team redraft I have done so far this season, and really liking my RBs I got after the fact.

QB: Rodgers

RB: Marshawn Lynch (2.3)

RB: David Wilson (3.10)

WR: Jordy Nelson (4.3)

WR: Mike Wallace (5.10)

WR: Anquan Boldin (6.3)

TE: Antonio Gates (7.10)

RB: Shane Vereen (8.3)

League is a start 1 RB with 1 flex, so plenty fine with the options I have at the position. And my WRs aren't too shabby for waiting until the 4th either.
those wr's are putrid
Was waiting for at least two people to chime in, I hate literally everything about this team - even the 8.3 for Vereen if you only start 1 RB which is like 2 rounds later than I see him going.

 
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So I did a little experiment the last few hours. I did a few mock drafts on ESPN selecting late in the 1st round. One draft going RB/WR, one going RB/RB, and one going WR/WR. 12 teams, non-PPR, standard scoring. I tried to be as objective as possible and not really overdraft anyone. I also tried to draft different players (but similar tier wise) for each team to have as little bias as possible for others judging these teams, ie if I picked the same RB1 on every team but for whatever reason you are down on them, so that makes you lean toward the team where I didnt do RB/RB obviously. Sorry for you early QB/Graham people, but if I did that in any of these drafts that would considerably change how my team looked from the WR and RB position. I think it will be understood which strategy I used for each team, so which do you think is the strongest?...

Team 1 (10 slot)
QB Romo, Dalton
RB Morris, Forte, Bell, Hillman, MBush
WR Andre, Cruz, Garcon, Stevie Johnson, Hopkins, VBrown
TE FDavis

Team 2 (10 slot)
QB Eli, Vick
RB SJax, DWilson, Bell, Ingram, Pierre
WR Mega, Cruz, Austin, Gordon, Blackmon, Randle
TE Witten


Team 3 (10 slot)
QB Luck
RB RBush, Mathews, Mendenhall, Ingram, Ballard, Pierre
WR Green, Dez, Cruz, Gordon, Floyd, Little
TE Pettigrew


Im not going to say how I feel about these teams yet, Id rather get feedback first, but I will say Calvin was there at #10 in 4 of the 5 drafts I did (had to scrap a couple because I coudnt reasonably pull off my first 2 round strategy for this if not) which surprised me :ph34r: . Also, either Im really high on Victor Cruz or many dont believe because he was there in the early 4th in all 3 of the drafts I went that far and seemed like an obvious pick to me.
 
3. The WR's (Dez, AJ, Marshall) and TE (Graham) we are talking about here are almost all guaranteed to be top 5 performers. I would bet a LOT of money that they will all at least be top 10. Graham is almost certainly going to be the top TE. Even if it's not by a huge margin, you know his bust factor is extremely low. The same with the WR's. Those guys just are not going to bust, unless they get hurt.
So Dez is almost guaranteed a top 5 WR spot despite the fact that he's never had one before? This just shows your bias, which is fine, but realize that your opinion on strategy is being tainted by your forward projections of certain players. I'd say guys like Julio and Dez are far from a guaranteed top 5 spot. They've never done it before, and if anything, Bryant's situation is worse this year (healthy Austin). Meanwhile, you discount Morris' ability to reach a top 5 spot despite the fact that he was RB6 last year and still has no competition for carries. Now I'm not saying my opinion is right and yours is wrong, but understand our biases are affecting our probabilities.
'he's never done it before' is an extremely lazy argument. Anyone alive in 2012 should have seen that the Romo to Dez connection clicked midseason. All offseason news has been nothing but pointing up. NFC East still has good offenses and awful secondaries. Dallas has the easiest pass defense strength of schedule in the league.

Ditto with Julio. Roddy and Gonzalez certainly aren't younger than last year, and all offseason news has been glowing about Julio. I don't love Atlanta's schedule, but I'm all aboard the Julio breakout wagon.

I think Julio has highest chance of falling outside of top 5, but barring serious injury, I'd be shock absolutely astounded if any of top 5 (D Thomas my 5th) fall outside WR1 (top 12)

 
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So I did a little experiment the last few hours. I did a few mock drafts on ESPN selecting late in the 1st round. One draft going RB/WR, one going RB/RB, and one going WR/WR. 12 teams, non-PPR, standard scoring. I tried to be as objective as possible and not really overdraft anyone. I also tried to draft different players (but similar tier wise) for each team to have as little bias as possible for others judging these teams, ie if I picked the same RB1 on every team but for whatever reason you are down on them, so that makes you lean toward the team where I didnt do RB/RB obviously. Sorry for you early QB/Graham people, but if I did that in any of these drafts that would considerably change how my team looked from the WR and RB position. I think it will be understood which strategy I used for each team, so which do you think is the strongest?...

Team 1 (10 slot)

QB Romo, Dalton

RB Morris, Forte, Bell, Hillman, MBush

WR Andre, Cruz, Garcon, Stevie Johnson, Hopkins, VBrown

TE FDavis

Team 2 (10 slot)

QB Eli, Vick

RB SJax, DWilson, Bell, Ingram, Pierre

WR Mega, Cruz, Austin, Gordon, Blackmon, Randle

TE Witten

Team 3 (10 slot)

QB Luck

RB RBush, Mathews, Mendenhall, Ingram, Ballard, Pierre

WR Green, Dez, Cruz, Gordon, Floyd, Little

TE Pettigrew

Im not going to say how I feel about these teams yet, Id rather get feedback first, but I will say Calvin was there at #10 in 4 of the 5 drafts I did (had to scrap a couple because I coudnt reasonably pull off my first 2 round strategy for this if not) which surprised me :ph34r: . Also, either Im really high on Victor Cruz or many dont believe because he was there in the early 4th in all 3 of the drafts I went that far and seemed like an obvious pick to me.
It'll be no surprise but I really favor teams 1 and 2. I could see all 3 winning, but 3 needs so much to fall right to have probably mid level RB2 production. Bush needs to get a decent workload and goal line carries, Mendenhall needs to play out of his mind on a bad team that has a decent QB and an outstanding WR. Matthews needs to stay healthy and not get murdered behind a horrific O-Line.1/2 are just more balanced. The risk is spread to the last spot of the position instead of just a single position. On team 1, Dispite going RB/RB you still got a great WR (though I wouldn't expect to get Andre at 3.10 often myself).

When I have a chance I'll try the same thing and post what I get as well.

 
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So I did a little experiment the last few hours. I did a few mock drafts on ESPN selecting late in the 1st round. One draft going RB/WR, one going RB/RB, and one going WR/WR. 12 teams, non-PPR, standard scoring. I tried to be as objective as possible and not really overdraft anyone. I also tried to draft different players (but similar tier wise) for each team to have as little bias as possible for others judging these teams, ie if I picked the same RB1 on every team but for whatever reason you are down on them, so that makes you lean toward the team where I didnt do RB/RB obviously. Sorry for you early QB/Graham people, but if I did that in any of these drafts that would considerably change how my team looked from the WR and RB position. I think it will be understood which strategy I used for each team, so which do you think is the strongest?...

Team 1 (10 slot)
QB Romo, Dalton
RB Morris, Forte, Bell, Hillman, MBush
WR Andre, Cruz, Garcon, Stevie Johnson, Hopkins, VBrown
TE FDavis

Team 2 (10 slot)
QB Eli, Vick
RB SJax, DWilson, Bell, Ingram, Pierre
WR Mega, Cruz, Austin, Gordon, Blackmon, Randle
TE Witten


Team 3 (10 slot)
QB Luck
RB RBush, Mathews, Mendenhall, Ingram, Ballard, Pierre
WR Green, Dez, Cruz, Gordon, Floyd, Little
TE Pettigrew


Im not going to say how I feel about these teams yet, Id rather get feedback first, but I will say Calvin was there at #10 in 4 of the 5 drafts I did (had to scrap a couple because I coudnt reasonably pull off my first 2 round strategy for this if not) which surprised me :ph34r: . Also, either Im really high on Victor Cruz or many dont believe because he was there in the early 4th in all 3 of the drafts I went that far and seemed like an obvious pick to me.
I'd like team 3 the best if you substituted an upside guy like Hillman for Ingram or Ballard. Not a huge fan of BPett either. But otherwise, I like how your WR/WR team turned out. Bush should be an adequate RB1 and between Matthews and Mendenhall you should be able to survive at RB2 until either your later RBs or one from the wire emerges to fill that slot.

Wait hold that thought, I just noticed this is for non-PPR. That might swing my opinion, but in PPR, I like team 3. And that's the MAJOR problem with this thread. We all play in different scoring systems and while an RB-RB strategy might work in 4 pt pass TD, non-PPR leagues, it doesn't work nearly as well in the leagues I play in (6 pt pass TD, 0.5 PPR, return yardage).

So after all of the circular rhetoric on this topic, I guess much of it comes down to scoring and starting lineup setups.

 
I like team 2, team 1, then team 3 in that order.

If you got different RB's for team three I would like it better (which rbs were available in rounds 3-5).

I have gone WR-WR for 4 out of the last 5 years. I have had better luck in picking up starting RB's with upside in rounds 3-5. Last year it was Richardson, Martin, and Morris....granted it was a fluke that this team came together so nicely...it doesn't always work out this way. I'm also in a league that over drafts at the QB position in the first three rounds....the top 6 QBs will be gone by the end of round 3, which helps RB talent to fall later in the draft.

I would be happy with either team 1 or team 2. If I can get Megatron, I will go WR-RB all day long. If not, I'm probably going to go RB-?.....depending on who is there. At WR, I would only consider Green or Dez for my second round pick....maybe Julio.

 
My biggest complaint with Team 3 is with the RBs you got late. They are all guys I am avoiding. If you would have had Hillman, Bell, or Tate there, I would feel a lot better.

 
I'd rank as 2, 3, 1 in the order I'd like them.

I'd like 2 better with different late QBs. And I'd like 3 better with a different TE, waiting forever if I didn't get Graham or Witten so I could take a guy like Cameron and just live with it.

 
So I did a little experiment the last few hours. I did a few mock drafts on ESPN selecting late in the 1st round. One draft going RB/WR, one going RB/RB, and one going WR/WR. 12 teams, non-PPR, standard scoring. I tried to be as objective as possible and not really overdraft anyone. I also tried to draft different players (but similar tier wise) for each team to have as little bias as possible for others judging these teams, ie if I picked the same RB1 on every team but for whatever reason you are down on them, so that makes you lean toward the team where I didnt do RB/RB obviously. Sorry for you early QB/Graham people, but if I did that in any of these drafts that would considerably change how my team looked from the WR and RB position. I think it will be understood which strategy I used for each team, so which do you think is the strongest?...

Team 1 (10 slot)

QB Romo, Dalton

RB Morris, Forte, Bell, Hillman, MBush

WR Andre, Cruz, Garcon, Stevie Johnson, Hopkins, VBrown

TE FDavis

Team 2 (10 slot)

QB Eli, Vick

RB SJax, DWilson, Bell, Ingram, Pierre

WR Mega, Cruz, Austin, Gordon, Blackmon, Randle

TE Witten

Team 3 (10 slot)

QB Luck

RB RBush, Mathews, Mendenhall, Ingram, Ballard, Pierre

WR Green, Dez, Cruz, Gordon, Floyd, Little

TE Pettigrew

Im not going to say how I feel about these teams yet, Id rather get feedback first, but I will say Calvin was there at #10 in 4 of the 5 drafts I did (had to scrap a couple because I coudnt reasonably pull off my first 2 round strategy for this if not) which surprised me :ph34r: . Also, either Im really high on Victor Cruz or many dont believe because he was there in the early 4th in all 3 of the drafts I went that far and seemed like an obvious pick to me.
I would rank these teams 1,2,3 in that order. I wouldn't say any of them is terrible. I prefer RB strength, and team 1 has four solid options while not giving up too much in other positions.

 
Took Rodgers at 1.10 in the only 12-team redraft I have done so far this season, and really liking my RBs I got after the fact.

QB: Rodgers

RB: Marshawn Lynch (2.3)

RB: David Wilson (3.10)

WR: Jordy Nelson (4.3)

WR: Mike Wallace (5.10)

WR: Anquan Boldin (6.3)

TE: Antonio Gates (7.10)

RB: Shane Vereen (8.3)

League is a start 1 RB with 1 flex, so plenty fine with the options I have at the position. And my WRs aren't too shabby for waiting until the 4th either.
You only have to start 1 RB in this league, hence the reason why they fell.

Starting requirements make a HUGE difference in relative value among positions. Think 1 QB vs 2 QB leagues (mandatory 2 QB leagues, not superflex).
Your team doesn't scream PPR to me. Your best picks are backs, but the top one doesn't catch passes. The other two RBs will catch passes, will they get any GL carries? Tough to gauge either's 2013 performance since this is the first time they are going to get significant playing time. Your WRs arent big reception guys. I don't know what the TE situation looked like, but Gates in the 7th is your worst pick. Last year, Gates was 19th amongst TEs in receptions.
Gates finished as TE13 last year in that abortion of a season that San Diego had, All reports indicate that he is quicker than in years, and with the loss of Alexander, he will be leaned on just as much as ever. While he was not my first choice at the pick (Finley and the MIN TE went right before my pick), I think he will be just fine.

Lynch was top-5 in any system. He is just fine as well. Wilson I am extremely high on this year (took him in almost every league I am in). TE is definitely my weak point, but I will get a couple of guys in the next few rounds.
I wouldn't worry about your TE nearly as much as your WRs. Hopefully like your RB you only start one WR so you can flex a RB. All 3 are weak in PPR. Now that Nelson is banged up I have him as a low end WR2. This is a good indication of what happens if you draft a QB early. Lucky for you in this league there is very small RB requirements so you should be okay there. If it was more of a standard roster league (2 RB, 2 WR & 1 flex) the team would be in big trouble plus you wouldn't have gotten those RBs that slid.

 
So I did a little experiment the last few hours. I did a few mock drafts on ESPN selecting late in the 1st round. One draft going RB/WR, one going RB/RB, and one going WR/WR. 12 teams, non-PPR, standard scoring. I tried to be as objective as possible and not really overdraft anyone. I also tried to draft different players (but similar tier wise) for each team to have as little bias as possible for others judging these teams, ie if I picked the same RB1 on every team but for whatever reason you are down on them, so that makes you lean toward the team where I didnt do RB/RB obviously. Sorry for you early QB/Graham people, but if I did that in any of these drafts that would considerably change how my team looked from the WR and RB position. I think it will be understood which strategy I used for each team, so which do you think is the strongest?...

Team 1 (10 slot)

QB Romo, Dalton

RB Morris, Forte, Bell, Hillman, MBush

WR Andre, Cruz, Garcon, Stevie Johnson, Hopkins, VBrown

TE FDavis

Team 2 (10 slot)

QB Eli, Vick

RB SJax, DWilson, Bell, Ingram, Pierre

WR Mega, Cruz, Austin, Gordon, Blackmon, Randle

TE Witten

Team 3 (10 slot)

QB Luck

RB RBush, Mathews, Mendenhall, Ingram, Ballard, Pierre

WR Green, Dez, Cruz, Gordon, Floyd, Little

TE Pettigrew

Im not going to say how I feel about these teams yet, Id rather get feedback first, but I will say Calvin was there at #10 in 4 of the 5 drafts I did (had to scrap a couple because I coudnt reasonably pull off my first 2 round strategy for this if not) which surprised me :ph34r: . Also, either Im really high on Victor Cruz or many dont believe because he was there in the early 4th in all 3 of the drafts I went that far and seemed like an obvious pick to me.
I would rank these teams 1,2,3 in that order. I wouldn't say any of them is terrible. I prefer RB strength, and team 1 has four solid options while not giving up too much in other positions.
I think this is the big takeaway. He was able to get a stable (yet unspectacular and lower end) WR1 in the 3rd round dispite going RB/RB from the 10 position. Being able to handcuff a guy like Forte is a pretty big deal as well as Bush puts up low end RB1 numbers following a teams normal RB getting injured (or at least he has in the past)

 
So I did a little experiment the last few hours. I did a few mock drafts on ESPN selecting late in the 1st round. One draft going RB/WR, one going RB/RB, and one going WR/WR. 12 teams, non-PPR, standard scoring. I tried to be as objective as possible and not really overdraft anyone. I also tried to draft different players (but similar tier wise) for each team to have as little bias as possible for others judging these teams, ie if I picked the same RB1 on every team but for whatever reason you are down on them, so that makes you lean toward the team where I didnt do RB/RB obviously. Sorry for you early QB/Graham people, but if I did that in any of these drafts that would considerably change how my team looked from the WR and RB position. I think it will be understood which strategy I used for each team, so which do you think is the strongest?...

Team 1 (10 slot)

QB Romo, Dalton

RB Morris, Forte, Bell, Hillman, MBush

WR Andre, Cruz, Garcon, Stevie Johnson, Hopkins, VBrown

TE FDavis

Team 2 (10 slot)

QB Eli, Vick

RB SJax, DWilson, Bell, Ingram, Pierre

WR Mega, Cruz, Austin, Gordon, Blackmon, Randle

TE Witten

Team 3 (10 slot)

QB Luck

RB RBush, Mathews, Mendenhall, Ingram, Ballard, Pierre

WR Green, Dez, Cruz, Gordon, Floyd, Little

TE Pettigrew

Im not going to say how I feel about these teams yet, Id rather get feedback first, but I will say Calvin was there at #10 in 4 of the 5 drafts I did (had to scrap a couple because I coudnt reasonably pull off my first 2 round strategy for this if not) which surprised me :ph34r: . Also, either Im really high on Victor Cruz or many dont believe because he was there in the early 4th in all 3 of the drafts I went that far and seemed like an obvious pick to me.
I would rank these teams 1,2,3 in that order. I wouldn't say any of them is terrible. I prefer RB strength, and team 1 has four solid options while not giving up too much in other positions.
I think this is the big takeaway. He was able to get a stable (yet unspectacular and lower end) WR1 in the 3rd round dispite going RB/RB from the 10 position. Being able to handcuff a guy like Forte is a pretty big deal as well as Bush puts up low end RB1 numbers following a teams normal RB getting injured (or at least he has in the past)
Myself, I'd go team 2, team 3 and team 1. But I know a lot of that is flavor. I -really- don't like Forte or Andre, and I'm leery of Garcon's foot. If you made different choices on guys there, maybe I'd like it more, but there's not a lot of the RBs in round 2 that I find appealing. YMMV. But then I've stated that I am more about the upside than the floor. I can look at team 1 and appreciate the floor and think it would be a solid team, but I just see players on the other two teams who I think can put up game-changing numbers in any given week.

 
If I'm drafting at the 12 spot, I guess I'd rather be great at one or two positions, and hope to hit on the others throughout the draft, rather than be mediocre at all positions. Taking two RB's in rounds 1 and 2 guarantees you that you will have no top 5 guys at RB and WR, and no top 3 guys at QB and TE. I have an issue with that.

 
For the record the adp on a 12 team for both Jackson and Forte are both before AJ Green and Dez Bryant. I cannot fathom any scenario where I would want those 2 before Dez and certainly green. Jacksons stats have declined every year since 2009 and his carries are astronomical. Forte is just forte. He gets his 1000 yards, 50 catches and every year you think the td's are coming but never do. As you say he ends up outside the top 10. Why in the world would you pass up Green for that?
That's an easy answer. It's the theme of this entire thread. RB depth is remarkably poor. WR depth is remarkably deep. WR 4-20 are very, very close. WR 28 is essentially WR 18 from 4 years ago .
Hmmm WR 4 to 20 are not very very close. Certainly not in PPR. In PPR, 1 point per 10 yards, 6 point TDs, WR4 Bryant outscored WR20 Steve Smith, by essentially 5 points per game. WR4 averaged 18.73 and WR 20 averaged 13.44. Same Scoring system, RB4 Ray rice averaged 17.69 per game. RB 20, Bradshaw averaged 12.79. Essentially 5 points per game. If you go back for a few years I think you will find a remarkably consistent spread like that.

The key to going WR WR is finding two RBs later in the draft that can play into the top 20. That core will put you in the top half of your league and in the playoffs.

 
If I'm drafting at the 12 spot, I guess I'd rather be great at one or two positions, and hope to hit on the others throughout the draft, rather than be mediocre at all positions. Taking two RB's in rounds 1 and 2 guarantees you that you will have no top 5 guys at RB and WR, and no top 3 guys at QB and TE. I have an issue with that.
Agree with this mostly. Certainly the 10th overall RB has a shot at being top five, but I would rather have the second and third rated players at a position than the 10 and 11th. Better chance to get a special player and if they both hit as rated it will make up for a lot of Blemishes elsewhere. Certainly in scoring systems where the top ten at positions score very nearly the same amount of points on the season and per game.

 
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I'm hearing all this talk about positions being "deep"... and I'm hearing it about every position except RBs. WRs... deep. TEs... deep. QBs.... deep.

Can we call it what it is?

What we are saying is that there is a large pool of guys who are essentially just like other guys. They are interchangeable. Vincent Jackson is Roddy White is Andre Johnson is Victor Cruz is Dwayne Bowe. It just feels like people are saying "I will win my league by having my third, fourth and fifth round picks do nothing to distinguish me from the teams around me. I will win by being the same as everyone else. And to set me up for this strategy, I will be the same as everyone in my first two rounds."

It's true that David Wilson isn't LeSean McCoy, but Andre Johnson isn't AJ Green, Martellus Bennett isn't Vernon Davis and Colin Kaepernick isn't Drew Brees.

 
Randy Moss + T.O + Ocho Stanko =CHAMPIONSHIP!

Use your first 3 picks on this combo...and you will own your league :)

 
I'm hearing all this talk about positions being "deep"... and I'm hearing it about every position except RBs. WRs... deep. TEs... deep. QBs.... deep.

Can we call it what it is?

What we are saying is that there is a large pool of guys who are essentially just like other guys. They are interchangeable. Vincent Jackson is Roddy White is Andre Johnson is Victor Cruz is Dwayne Bowe. It just feels like people are saying "I will win my league by having my third, fourth and fifth round picks do nothing to distinguish me from the teams around me. I will win by being the same as everyone else. And to set me up for this strategy, I will be the same as everyone in my first two rounds."

It's true that David Wilson isn't LeSean McCoy, but Andre Johnson isn't AJ Green, Martellus Bennett isn't Vernon Davis and Colin Kaepernick isn't Drew Brees.
Huh? I'm not sure I get your point.

 
I'm hearing all this talk about positions being "deep"... and I'm hearing it about every position except RBs. WRs... deep. TEs... deep. QBs.... deep.

Can we call it what it is?

What we are saying is that there is a large pool of guys who are essentially just like other guys. They are interchangeable. Vincent Jackson is Roddy White is Andre Johnson is Victor Cruz is Dwayne Bowe. It just feels like people are saying "I will win my league by having my third, fourth and fifth round picks do nothing to distinguish me from the teams around me. I will win by being the same as everyone else. And to set me up for this strategy, I will be the same as everyone in my first two rounds."

It's true that David Wilson isn't LeSean McCoy, but Andre Johnson isn't AJ Green, Martellus Bennett isn't Vernon Davis and Colin Kaepernick isn't Drew Brees.
Only one of these guys has been a top 10 WR each of the last 5 years, without ever missing a single game, if I am not mistaken. (Roddy White)

 
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Stevan Ridley is undervalued. He could be a top 5 RB in non ppr if the Patriots lean even more on the running game this year.

 
Hey Guys, I am getting stuck with Rounds 2-3 on who to pick. I am drafting 5th in a 12 team, 6 pts for TDs (including Qbs) .5 PPR

First round is easy... pick a top 5 RB

Second round I sometimes see these players. How would you rank them?

Chris Johnson/R. Bush

Dez Bryant/Marshall

Brees/Rodgers

I think in the third round I should go opposite of what I choose in the second unless QB, then go best available RB (assuming Brees or Rodgers not available)

Thanks

 
'he's never done it before' is an extremely lazy argument.

Ditto with Julio. Roddy and Gonzalez certainly aren't younger than last year, and all offseason news has been glowing about Julio. I don't love Atlanta's schedule, but I'm all aboard the Julio breakout wagon.

I think Julio has highest chance of falling outside of top 5, but barring serious injury, I'd be shock absolutely astounded if any of top 5 (D Thomas my 5th) fall outside WR1 (top 12)
Julio was WR12 in PPR points per game last year. What has you convinced that an additional year on Roddy and Gonzo equates to a firm chance of jumping 7 spots? Is there an age regression you've done to suggest a dramatic fall-off in production? Add SJax and a more balanced offense to the mix and that means potentially less targets for Julio. The Dirty Word has an excellent summary of Julio's situation under his player spotlight. I'd suggest taking a gander which may or may not temper your opinion of the "glowing reports". Julio could very well hit the top 5, but to act like it's very likely is putting the cart before the horse. As for Dez, it was my bad on last year's stats. That said, Austin is supposedly healthy and I believe that will impact Dez this year. Nonetheless, I would concede that his chances for top 5 are pretty good.
Julio isn't in my top 5 because I think he's a lock to be top 5. He's in my top 5 because I think he's a lock to NOT drop off the top 10. And I do think age will finally start showing up on his competition, particularly SJax, who everyone forgets is 30.

 
Hey Guys, I am getting stuck with Rounds 2-3 on who to pick. I am drafting 5th in a 12 team, 6 pts for TDs (including Qbs) .5 PPR

First round is easy... pick a top 5 RB

Second round I sometimes see these players. How would you rank them?

Chris Johnson/R. Bush

Dez Bryant/Marshall

Brees/Rodgers

I think in the third round I should go opposite of what I choose in the second unless QB, then go best available RB (assuming Brees or Rodgers not available)

Thanks
Dez, Marshall, Johnson, Bush, Brees, Rodgers in that order.

 
So I did a little experiment the last few hours. I did a few mock drafts on ESPN selecting late in the 1st round. One draft going RB/WR, one going RB/RB, and one going WR/WR. 12 teams, non-PPR, standard scoring. I tried to be as objective as possible and not really overdraft anyone. I also tried to draft different players (but similar tier wise) for each team to have as little bias as possible for others judging these teams, ie if I picked the same RB1 on every team but for whatever reason you are down on them, so that makes you lean toward the team where I didnt do RB/RB obviously. Sorry for you early QB/Graham people, but if I did that in any of these drafts that would considerably change how my team looked from the WR and RB position. I think it will be understood which strategy I used for each team, so which do you think is the strongest?...

Team 1 (10 slot)
QB Romo, Dalton
RB Morris, Forte, Bell, Hillman, MBush
WR Andre, Cruz, Garcon, Stevie Johnson, Hopkins, VBrown
TE FDavis

Team 2 (10 slot)
QB Eli, Vick
RB SJax, DWilson, Bell, Ingram, Pierre
WR Mega, Cruz, Austin, Gordon, Blackmon, Randle
TE Witten


Team 3 (10 slot)
QB Luck
RB RBush, Mathews, Mendenhall, Ingram, Ballard, Pierre
WR Green, Dez, Cruz, Gordon, Floyd, Little
TE Pettigrew


Im not going to say how I feel about these teams yet, Id rather get feedback first, but I will say Calvin was there at #10 in 4 of the 5 drafts I did (had to scrap a couple because I coudnt reasonably pull off my first 2 round strategy for this if not) which surprised me :ph34r: . Also, either Im really high on Victor Cruz or many dont believe because he was there in the early 4th in all 3 of the drafts I went that far and seemed like an obvious pick to me.
Now that Ive given this a few days to hear others thoughts, Im not too surprised that everyone's favorite team is all over the place. It does seem like most of WR/WR guys felt that team is the strongest. While I wouldnt say its clearly the weakest, Im not happy with Reggie as my RB1 (and I like him this year), and I dont like depending on Mathews or Mendenhall surprising and being my RB2 either.

Id probably say 2 is my favorite, but sort of has an unfair advantage with Megatron and Witten. Im not planning on Megatron being available that late in my drafts if thats where I end up picking, but I'll take him if he's there. Witten slid until the late 5th in that draft so it was an easy choice. Funny how in just a couple years it feels like TE went from deep to only having 4 guys Id trust taking in the top 8 rounds. The other TE's I got are hardly ones I count on ending up being TE1's, so like I said Team 2 with a nice advantage there.

As Lawfitz said though, I think this really comes down scoring system. If youre in PPR, its hard to go RB/RB. If youre in 6pt passing TD leagues, hard to pass up the top QBs in the 2nd or 3rd round. Based on my mock drafts above and being in non-PPR money leagues, I have a feeling Im most likely to end up going RB/WR as I prefer the positional flexibility it gives me later in the draft for those positions and others, lets me take value when its there without feeling like Im leaving myself too weak at RB or WR, and doesnt "force" me into taking a RB or WR because I have left myself noticeably weak there and cant neglect it any longer.

 
If I'm drafting at the 12 spot, I guess I'd rather be great at one or two positions, and hope to hit on the others throughout the draft, rather than be mediocre at all positions. Taking two RB's in rounds 1 and 2 guarantees you that you will have no top 5 guys at RB and WR, and no top 3 guys at QB and TE. I have an issue with that.
While I understand what youre saying, preseason rankings arent what the end of the season rankings end up being. The key to winning is picking the most guys who outproduce their draft position/projections. I understand the preseason rankings reflect the likelihood of players finishing that high, but drafting how you are describing guarantees you nothing.

 
Stevan Ridley is undervalued. He could be a top 5 RB in non ppr if the Patriots lean even more on the running game this year.
I love Ridley this year, he just didnt make sense based on where I was picking (late 1st/early 2nd) in those mocks I did the other day. I hope he doesnt continue having games like yesterday though so people dont start to realize how nice his combination of value/high floor are for where he's going. The nice thing is I dont see his ADP rising much because 10 of the 13 RBs going ahead of him are considered 1st round picks, and Blount putting up statlines like he did will probably prevent Ridley from getting a lot of hype as well.

Again, this comes down to scoring systems though. Ridley has a much better shot at finishing mid-low RB1 in non-PPR than PPR. That said, if I played PPR Id be all over Ridley a round later.

 

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