Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
**Saturday Night Football on ABC - Lions 11-4 at Cowboys 10-5** (-5.5 , 52) 8:15 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
This game is a tough one to understand but the tea leaves point to Dallas winning. The spread is somewhat large for a team with 10 wins playing a Division Champ with 11 wins 2nd to last week of the season. I don't know if they feel Detroit is not interested in trying to climb into the No 1 overall seed but it appears to me like Vegas feels Dallas will win rather easily
34-17 Cowboys is how I read the Vegas line right now but I've watched the Lions a lot since Coach DC arrived and I find it hard to believe they won't be jacked up for this football game.
I'd say I'm likely rooting for the Lions a bit here, they really aren't the underdog at this point but 30 years is a long time between Division Titles, they seem to relish in this role under DC.
Looking forward to settling in and analyzing a couple of true Playoff teams this year.
Gibbs and Monty are the key pieces for Detroit and if they can get them rolling on the ground or not tonight.
34-17 Cowboys is how I read the Vegas line right now but I've watched the Lions a lot since Coach DC arrived and I find it hard to believe they won't be jacked up for this football game.
I'd say I'm likely rooting for the Lions a bit here, they really aren't the underdog at this point but 30 years is a long time between Division Titles, they seem to relish in this role under DC.
Looking forward to settling in and analyzing a couple of true Playoff teams this year.
Gibbs and Monty are the key pieces for Detroit and if they can get them rolling on the ground or not tonight.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
This should be the key as you say, whether Detroit can run and then set up the play action. Lions are #3 in YPG rushing, Cowboys are #19 on defense YPG rushing. If the Lions can't run it could be a long night for Campbell's cats.
Whether this is a good game probably relies on the health of Cam Sutton. The Lions have been struggling to find a CB2 all season, where their defense has been most vulnerable. Kerby Joseph has done OK at times by getting excellent help from the safeties. But if their CB1 is out, it will be a disaster for the defense.
Lions run offense is the best in football, discounting teams with a QB who runs for 800 yards. The Cowboys defense is highly vulnerable to the run game and has had difficult time even against poor running teams. Not sure if that is enough to overcome.
One wildcard may be the crowd. The Lions have taken over many of opponents stadiums. Can they turn Dallas into Ford Field South?
The game favors the offenses on both sides. I would take the over and if Cam is a go, take the Lions with the points. But I don't see thr Lions pulling out the W unless there is a choke by Dak (2 or more turnovers)
Lions run offense is the best in football, discounting teams with a QB who runs for 800 yards. The Cowboys defense is highly vulnerable to the run game and has had difficult time even against poor running teams. Not sure if that is enough to overcome.
One wildcard may be the crowd. The Lions have taken over many of opponents stadiums. Can they turn Dallas into Ford Field South?
The game favors the offenses on both sides. I would take the over and if Cam is a go, take the Lions with the points. But I don't see thr Lions pulling out the W unless there is a choke by Dak (2 or more turnovers)
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
By what metric?
Best ypg and ypc by RBs. Team ahead of Detroit have QB who scramble as their best runners (Lamar and Justin).
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
So those rushing yards don't count?
FairWarning
Footballguy
Outside of the Philly game, Dallas has played a pretty weak home schedule. I’m concerned about Detroit not taking this as serious since they clinched last week.
⁵
Gibbs 67 ypg with a 5.7 ypc. Monty with 76 ypg with 4.7 ypc. Gibbs ypc is tops in the league and Monty's is somewhere in the 5 to 10 range.
You look at Chicago and Baltimore and even with their QB stats, their ypc is not all that good. The extra yards by their QB gives them better total.
So even with the QB stats, there is a good case Detroit's running game is more effective.
Gibbs 67 ypg with a 5.7 ypc. Monty with 76 ypg with 4.7 ypc. Gibbs ypc is tops in the league and Monty's is somewhere in the 5 to 10 range.
You look at Chicago and Baltimore and even with their QB stats, their ypc is not all that good. The extra yards by their QB gives them better total.
So even with the QB stats, there is a good case Detroit's running game is more effective.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Baltimore's YPC is higher than Detroit's and they've outrushed them by more than 250 yards. You may not like it, but Jackson's running stats count. I'm not knocking the Lions' run game at all (they are very, very good), but they are not "the best" by any measure that's definable.
That said, I think they can run well on Dallas as long as the game stays close (which I think it will).
I'm going Dallas 27, Detroit 26 and am hoping for a fun game.
Unfortunately, Baltimore lost Keaton Mitchell for the year with his insane 8.4 yards per carry. So at this time, with the Gibbs, Monty and the entire Lions OL healthy, they are the best in the league, IMHO.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Home Dallas is one of the best teams in the league and far better than Road Dallas. That plus novices who like to bet on the Cowboys explains the spread well enough.
2Young2BBald
Footbaldguy
Great post. Draft Kings now shows the game has been back down to where it opened at +5.5 for the Lions, with 62% of the money on Dallas. I suspect it may go to 5 before kick to pull some more $.
Should be a bounce back game for Dallas after road losses,boyz better at home for sure.
If Detroit commits to running the ball it could keep the score down.
If The Lions do run well and eat clock they can win it.
I think boyz try to jump out to an early lead to pressure the Lions offense.
If Detroit can withstand the early onslaught they can pull the upset.
All the metrics point to a high scoring game but I think it'll come in just a bit under the number,so Here We gooooo...
Motor City- 27
America's Former Team- 24
If Detroit commits to running the ball it could keep the score down.
If The Lions do run well and eat clock they can win it.
I think boyz try to jump out to an early lead to pressure the Lions offense.
If Detroit can withstand the early onslaught they can pull the upset.
All the metrics point to a high scoring game but I think it'll come in just a bit under the number,so Here We gooooo...
Motor City- 27
America's Former Team- 24
Despite Dallas being 7-0 at home, the Lions have a legit chance to win this game. The one thing they simply cannot do is turn the ball over.
This, along with not turning the ball over is their path to winning this game. I'm not saying they will but it's definitely possible.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Cam Sutton (toe) is a GTD
Detroit's OL should do well versus the Cowboys athletic but undersized front 7. IDK that the Lions can stop the Dallas passing attack, though.
Hope we have a competitive & high scoring game.
Detroit's OL should do well versus the Cowboys athletic but undersized front 7. IDK that the Lions can stop the Dallas passing attack, though.
Hope we have a competitive & high scoring game.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Dallas at home might be the best team in the league. I think they win this one pretty easy. I like your score. I just threw up in my mouth after writing this.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Hankins out again. Big nights for Monty and Gibbs. Hopefully Dallas doesn’t turn the ball over or they’re toast
I have Det +5.5 to close out a parlay
I have Det +5.5 to close out a parlay
2Young2BBald
Footbaldguy
W O W FanDuel all the way down to Dallas giving only 4.5 now.
In addition to elevating Irvin, the Lions also elevated DT Tyson Alualu and signed TE Anthony Firkster to the 53-man roster.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Explosion of an NFC matchup. Detroit kicks a game tying FG in overtime as the clock ticks 0.
24-24 tie game.
24-24 tie game.
I think the Lions defense is gonna have a lot of problems with how Dallas uses Lamb, and while I like Brian Branch a ton, he does end up matched with slot WRs 1-1 a lot, that's ok most weeks, this isn't one. Also think this could be a nice Tony Pollard week (I've said that before) but the matchup is solid, and I'm facing him in a championship game so expectations are high.
For the Lions, I think as good as the OL is (probably the best west of Philly) the Cowboys pass rush is a problem, especially with Goff's lack of escape ability. I think this sets up as more likely to be a bad Goff game than a bad Dak game, especially if the Dallas run D can play well, which they have almost all year, except for whatever happened against James Cook and the Bills a couple weeks ago. Perhaps the Lions should feature Gibbs over Monty to try and hit those plays that the Bills did?
I'll say Dallas wins a close one 28-27, but I also wouldn't be shocked if Dallas won by more if bad Goff shows up, and we get something more akin to the Philly game a few weeks ago.
For the Lions, I think as good as the OL is (probably the best west of Philly) the Cowboys pass rush is a problem, especially with Goff's lack of escape ability. I think this sets up as more likely to be a bad Goff game than a bad Dak game, especially if the Dallas run D can play well, which they have almost all year, except for whatever happened against James Cook and the Bills a couple weeks ago. Perhaps the Lions should feature Gibbs over Monty to try and hit those plays that the Bills did?
I'll say Dallas wins a close one 28-27, but I also wouldn't be shocked if Dallas won by more if bad Goff shows up, and we get something more akin to the Philly game a few weeks ago.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
TheAristocrat
Footballguy
I hate to nitpick MoP but this is Monday Night Football on a Saturday. Please update the thread title.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
As I get older I like having an excuse for not knowing what day it is.
I just heard a stat on local radio which was courtesy of ESPN Next-Gen stats. When facing man coverage, Jared Goff has thrown 17 TDs and zero interception. When facing zone coverage, Goff has thrown 10 TDs and 10 interceptions.
The Cowboys play more man coverage than any team in the NFL
The Cowboys play more man coverage than any team in the NFL
I am sure the Cowboys know that. Let's see if they adjust.
Not sure what that says about Goff though. Does the zone coverage confuse him somehow.
Smells like it
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Same at DraftKings now. Let's hope the late steam works out.
rockaction
Footballguy
Same here.
Bell, Melifonwu, and Parsons going today. Nobody on offense. That does not bode well for me.
Chaos34
Footballguy
I could swap Iffy for Pinnock, who gets the Rams which means lots of opportunity, but the Cowboys have allowed more to safeties than LA, and Melifonwu has been blitzing as you know. This is big play idp and I like the chance for another sack or big play. A third option is Donovan Wilson (on waivers) in this game. He's been hot and Detroit better than Dallas or LA for safeties.
and Cooks is in for Waddle, oof.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Got Laporta and Lamb going against Gibbs tonight.
Similar threads
