Start Your Real NFL Today - Choice between Cam Newton or Andrew Luck (1 Viewer)

[encaitar]

To this point we have not seen a single player develop elite passing game to pair with elite rushing skills.

Daunte Culpepper did, although he didn't maintain it. He was top-5 in passing yardage three times (#1 once), and averaged 5.2 ypc with 34 career rushing TDs.

I think people forget how good Culpepper was before his knee injury. Go look at his stats from 2000-2005 and try to tell me that isn't what you envision Cam becoming as a QB.

To be honest I kind of forgot about Culpepper. Partly because his prime years were a period where I was not following the NFL closely, and partly because he never really did it consistently. As a passer, he had a great year, two average years, a great year, and MVP-caliber year, then just meh after the injury. I would say Culpepper circa 2004 is what is envisioned, only having more than one season like that.

If you envision Cam having the third or forth best season ever for a QB every year, then you might have your hopes a little high. I think 2 great years, 1 good one, 1 average one, and 1 MVP type year in each 5 years stretch would make any team happy with their QB.

 

[Concept Coop]

I will go with Newton, and here's why:

1. He is making the NFL his freaking playground. Imagine if he wasn't on a team that was bad enough to have the #1 pick last year.

2. No mini-camp, abbreviated training camp, one decent WR, a defense that has no linebackers left, and is letting up points as fast as Cam can score them. And people say he is gonna regress? Hey fellas, this might be the worst Cam is ever gonna be. Wrap your noggin around that one. Wait till he learns to read NFL defenses better. Wait till he makes better decisions.

Fact is, if Luck comes in and rips it up after 8 weeks, no one is going to say, "Well, wait till teams learn to gameplan against him." And the reason, whether people want to admit it or not, is because everyone was wrong about Cam Newton. Talk about grasping at straws. This isn't some young pitcher that only throws the high heater, and everyone catches on.

Teams are going to gameplan against him? Sweet! Any of you amateur Belichicks got him figured out yet? Here's my call: Defend the whole dang field. Make sure you spy Cam, in case he takes off. Oh, and cover Stewart and the two tight ends on the short stuff. But make sure you defend 50 yards downfield, because if Cam gets pressure, and buys some time, one of these WRs is going to head for the end zone, and Cam is going to flick a 50 yard pass while checking out the hottie in the 3rd row. Gameplan, my nuts.

No knock to Luck, I have no reason to believe he won't be a perennial Pro Bowler, but if Luck had these numbers in his 4th year, everyone would be happy.

Post of the thread.

 

[Reepicheep]

To this point we have not seen a single player develop elite passing game to pair with elite rushing skills.

Daunte Culpepper did, although he didn't maintain it. He was top-5 in passing yardage three times (#1 once), and averaged 5.2 ypc with 34 career rushing TDs.

I think people forget how good Culpepper was before his knee injury. Go look at his stats from 2000-2005 and try to tell me that isn't what you envision Cam becoming as a QB.

To be honest I kind of forgot about Culpepper. Partly because his prime years were a period where I was not following the NFL closely, and partly because he never really did it consistently. As a passer, he had a great year, two average years, a great year, and MVP-caliber year, then just meh after the injury. I would say Culpepper circa 2004 is what is envisioned, only having more than one season like that.

If you envision Cam having the third or forth best season ever for a QB every year, then you might have your hopes a little high. I think 2 great years, 1 good one, 1 average one, and 1 MVP type year in each 5 years stretch would make any team happy with their QB.

Little disconnect, I was not projecting that for Cam. I was saying that eventually, some player with dominant physical attributes like Cam or Vick is going to develop elite passing skills to go with elite running skills, and we are going to see multiple seasons like that from said player. Basically I would put Culpepper in the category of "flashes" of what it will look like.

 

[Joe Bryant]

No knock to Luck, I have no reason to believe he won't be a perennial Pro Bowler, but if Luck had these numbers in his 4th year, everyone would be happy.

Hi Mass,I haven't seen hype for a college QB like this since I can remember. I think anything less than putting up Cam Newton numbers his rookie year will be cause for tons of unhappiness from people. May not be justified, but I think that'll be the reality.You really think they'll give him four years to produce given the hype he's receiving?J

 

[mr roboto]

We need a spatula to scrape Raiderfan32904 up off the pavement after the pounding he got in this thread.

I almost feel bad for him. If he wasn't so wrong, and so frequently wrong in defense of his position.

 

[massraider]

No knock to Luck, I have no reason to believe he won't be a perennial Pro Bowler, but if Luck had these numbers in his 4th year, everyone would be happy.

Hi Mass,I haven't seen hype for a college QB like this since I can remember. I think anything less than putting up Cam Newton numbers his rookie year will be cause for tons of unhappiness from people. May not be justified, but I think that'll be the reality.

You really think they'll give him four years to produce given the hype he's receiving?

J

No, not produce. He can produce--and win--from year one. Other rookies seem to be able to. Why not Luck as well? I said "Cam numbers." I disagree that anything less than Cam numbers will be a disappointment. Because prior to this year, Cam numbers didn't exist. No rookie QB coming in deserves that kind of pressure. Frankly, it'd be like any defensive tackle that comes into the league, people expecting Suh-type production. Or rookie RBs expected to put up Barry Sanders rookie production.

Cam is heading for best rookie performance, at any position, ever. Or at least in the discussion. Are the Panthers winning games? No. But people would argue that that is some sort of failing of Cam......are frankly the kind of people that argue points that makes me wish I ran the Shark Pool, so I could ban the dense.

When Luck comes into the league, he needs to be compared to Bradford's rookie year. Or someone like that. That's how good Cam is--comparing Luck's rookie year next year to Cam's rookie year isn't fair to Luck.

Before the 2010 season started, Luck was the top college QB prospect in the land. And Cam was arriving in Auburn, getting his first real 1-A action. Midway through the 2011, season, Luck is still the top college QB prospect in the land. And Cam is one of the better QBs in the NFL. He was in JUCO, 2 years ago. now he is carrying an NFL team on his back.

I have no dog in this hunt. I don't follow college football, and wasn't really vocal on the boards here till I saw him in the preseason, where I made a comment that he looked a lot better than I was led to believe (thank god I at least said that). I didn't draft him, and have made it clear to Cam owners that I want him.

But I reiterate what I said in that thread, later: His ceiling is, IMO: Best fantasy player that has ever played. Hall of Fame? Sure. I wouldn't say it is likely, because for QBs, they are a bit at the mercy of the organization they go to, more than people admit. But he has already proven he makes players around him better. His wheels make the line look like better blockers, his arm makes the receivers look better, and the RBs are going to have more room.

My favorite thing about him: It looks like the game slows down for him. Any athlete that has played a lot of sports has had this happen, it's so sweet when it does. I believe Jordan spent most of his NBA career in this zone. And it looks like Cam spends a lot of time in this zone. Pass pro breaks down, Cam just kind of glides to the side, like he expected it. Dogs are loose, Cam just glides down the field, no panic in his eyes. It's the only explanation I have for how freaking easy he makes this game look.

 

[th3f00l]

he has already proven he makes players around him better, than the QBs before him did.

 

[nysportsfan]

One in hand, as it was said above.

I guess my only question is whether Cam will have as long of a career and I think Luck will have. A pocket passer built on great fundamentals can, conceivably, last 15 years. Will Newton after his legs go?

Despite not knowing the answer, I probably take Cam.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Newton, he's alreafy made a huge impact on this team. I don't know Newton personally so I don't know what kind of character he has but unless something offield slows him down or an injury occurs this guy is going to be a pro bowler in the next couple of years. How do you pick against that, it's certainly not playing the odds.

 

[zoonation]

Correct me if I'm wrong...Newton is about to put Manning's rookie year to bed wet and is a physical freak who may redefine the QB position. Luck plays in the PAC and has yet to take a pro snap.

Is this for real?

 

[zoonation]

Luck but just barely. He seems to have all the tools, and is brilliant to boot. Having a NFL dad/lifelong pedigree a la Payton is nice too. Newton's skill set doesn't translate as well to the real NFL, and I wonder how long the team will struggle to mesh it with the teams identity. Look how long it took NFL teams to figure out how to use Mike Vick the right way, and even then it took an imaginative coach/OC/QBC brain trust to to that.

Sorry, but this is ridiculous. Cam, as a rookie, has taken the worst offense in the league to #5 overall in one year. The guy can't play defense. He is transforming that organization and once he gets some actual tools to work with, the results could be scary.The other guy? A super-hyped (and very talented) prospect.

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

I’d take Andrew Luck. Because he is the next Peyton Manning. Manning showed us all his true worth as his team has not been able to win a single game without him. Forget about all the flashy statistics of Cam Newton or “amazingest rookie year ever” diatribe. Where it matters most, in the win/loss column, Cam Newton has not gotten it done. His record as a starter is 2-6, and they have no hope for the playoffs. To me, I am willing to sacrifice all the stats and records for wins that propel your team to the playoffs. Losing gets old, and so what if Cam gets 4,000 yards passing and rushes for a dozen TD’s? If the end result is 4-12, he can’t continue to be coddled by the media and the fantasy football world for too long. The honeymoon will be over next year when the expectations are ratcheted up. Can he prove he can win tight games? That is still uncertain. He could be just another Vince Young who flamed out. Now I personally like Cam and think he’ll not go the way of VY. But over time, I think Luck has the chance to be THE QB of his generation.

Peyton was 3-13 with 28 picks his first year. Why?He was a rookie and he was on a crap team.So I suppose Peyton just couldn't get it done then either? What do you expect from a rookie QB on a bad team to accomplish exactly?9 wins? 10? A playoff berth?I would choose Cam over Luck right now, but I would certainly be open to a sensible, reasonable, intelligent argument for Luck instead.Your argument had none of those qualities.(and the VY comparison was the ignorant cherry on top)edit: sorry, didn't mean to pile on. I should have read the entire thread first.

 

[Sultans]

Newton is certainly impressive. Long term I voted Luck barely. When guys that get paid to scout throw out greatest prospect ever, I listen. Luck has the arm strength to match Newton and has better accuracy at range which is the most important quality of an elite QB. Hitting a seam in coverage at 40 yards consistently is a tough trick and I feel Luck has that ability. I also give him the edge in reading a defense. What happens if Cam loses his scrambling ability?

I think if in 2006 if you posed the question, who would you rather have Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson. The voices would chime in that would be insanity. Larry Fitzgerald is a hall of famer and I can think of few who would prefer him to Megatron at this juncture.

Eight Games of a last place teams schedule does not all of sudden make Cam Newton the next big thing either. Steve Smith and Greg Olsen are quality weapons. He is not doing this all my himself. The short term fantasy slant of Newton's performance thus far seems to have the shark pool a little to Pro-Newton on this. Kind of like they did when Deangelo Williams had 20 Td's.

 

[Reepicheep]

Will Cam be able to adjust once NFL Defenses catch on to him? Remember Vince Young was considered a franchise savior after his rookie year too. That's a big question mark no one seems to be considering.

There are a lot of people in Tennessee who never believed in Vince, myself being one of them.He was never, and will never be as good of a passer as Newton. Vince Young was more comparable to Tim Tebow, with a little better running skills.Young finished his rookie season with a 66.7 QB rating. He played in 15 games and finished with these stats:2199 yards 12 passing TDs7 rushing TDsCam is nearly even with those stats after just 8 games:2393 yards 11 passing TDs7 rushing TDs

Except for rushing yards- a key stat for both players- where he has barely more than half of Young's rookie total. Also, they're also almost even in a few other categories you forgot to mention. There's INTs, where Newton trails by only 4 despite playing in, as you say, only 8 games so far. And sacks taken/yards lost to sacks, where Newton has also almost surpassed Young's 15 game total in 8 games. I agree with your point generally, Newton is having a clearly better year than Young's rookie year. But I hate when people cherry-pick statistics. It undercuts the legitimacy of their argument even if it's a good one.

Forgot to cover this earlier, just wanted to point out that on a per-attempt basis Cam is better than VY in every possible passing metric. Yards, TDs, Ints, Sacks, completions, you name it. You don't have to cherry pick anything to make Cam look good.

 

[Reepicheep]

Newton is certainly impressive. Long term I voted Luck barely. When guys that get paid to scout throw out greatest prospect ever, I listen. Luck has the arm strength to match Newton and has better accuracy at range which is the most important quality of an elite QB. Hitting a seam in coverage at 40 yards consistently is a tough trick and I feel Luck has that ability. I also give him the edge in reading a defense. What happens if Cam loses his scrambling ability?

I think if in 2006 if you posed the question, who would you rather have Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson. The voices would chime in that would be insanity. Larry Fitzgerald is a hall of famer and I can think of few who would prefer him to Megatron at this juncture.

Eight Games of a last place teams schedule does not all of sudden make Cam Newton the next big thing either. Steve Smith and Greg Olsen are quality weapons. He is not doing this all my himself. The short term fantasy slant of Newton's performance thus far seems to have the shark pool a little to Pro-Newton on this. Kind of like they did when Deangelo Williams had 20 Td's.

What happens if Luck loses his passing ability?

 

[Touchdown Syndrome]

Newton is certainly impressive. Long term I voted Luck barely. When guys that get paid to scout throw out greatest prospect ever, I listen. Luck has the arm strength to match Newton and has better accuracy at range which is the most important quality of an elite QB. Hitting a seam in coverage at 40 yards consistently is a tough trick and I feel Luck has that ability. I also give him the edge in reading a defense. What happens if Cam loses his scrambling ability?

I think if in 2006 if you posed the question, who would you rather have Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson. The voices would chime in that would be insanity. Larry Fitzgerald is a hall of famer and I can think of few who would prefer him to Megatron at this juncture.

Eight Games of a last place teams schedule does not all of sudden make Cam Newton the next big thing either. Steve Smith and Greg Olsen are quality weapons. He is not doing this all my himself. The short term fantasy slant of Newton's performance thus far seems to have the shark pool a little to Pro-Newton on this. Kind of like they did when Deangelo Williams had 20 Td's.

I understand your points, and I mean no disrespect....but it doesn't seem like you've watched many Panthers games this year.Newton is perfectly comfortable standing in the pocket like a boss. He can make every throw, and has an elite arm.

If he somehow loses his scrambling ability in, like, 13 years, he should be fine.

As has been pointed out, this could likely be as bad as Newton will ever be....a rookie on a previously 2-14 team.

Luck is the best QB prospect I've seen since Peyton (original opinion, I know), but Newton is the best NFL rookie QB I've ever seen. If he's just scratching the surface of his ability...that's terrifying.

I'd be ecstatic to start my franchise with either stud, but Cam gets the nod.

 

[massraider]

Newton is certainly impressive. Long term I voted Luck barely. When guys that get paid to scout throw out greatest prospect ever, I listen. Luck has the arm strength to match Newton and has better accuracy at range which is the most important quality of an elite QB. Hitting a seam in coverage at 40 yards consistently is a tough trick and I feel Luck has that ability. I also give him the edge in reading a defense. What happens if Cam loses his scrambling ability?

I think if in 2006 if you posed the question, who would you rather have Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson. The voices would chime in that would be insanity. Larry Fitzgerald is a hall of famer and I can think of few who would prefer him to Megatron at this juncture.

Eight Games of a last place teams schedule does not all of sudden make Cam Newton the next big thing either. Steve Smith and Greg Olsen are quality weapons. He is not doing this all my himself. The short term fantasy slant of Newton's performance thus far seems to have the shark pool a little to Pro-Newton on this. Kind of like they did when Deangelo Williams had 20 Td's.

"Newton is certainly impressive"

No, what Andy Dalton is doing is impressive. Cam is Portis26 playing Madden 09 on 'rookie'. He is doing things that people never thought possible.



"When guys that get paid to scout throw out greatest prospect ever, I listen."

What does it say that a lot of those people were so very wrong about Cam? Luck has an incredible advantage, getting the coaching and experience he has. I definitely believe the Football Outsiders theory about number of college starts equates to NFL success. Luck beats Cam in that regard. Cam played in a very similar offense to Tebow in college, and we were told 1-3 years before Cam could be ready to be a starter. Turns out, he needed a few preseason games.



"Luck has the arm strength to match Newton and has better accuracy at range which is the most important quality of an elite QB. Hitting a seam in coverage at 40 yards consistently is a tough trick and I feel Luck has that ability."

Cam's running ability is overshadowing his passing. People, this kid can throw the rock. He has touch, he can put it on a rope. He has 3 games under 60% passing. Over 60% vs. the Packers, in his 2nd game. He has already shown he can throw every pass in the book. The arm comparison is a wash, at best.

"I also give him the edge in reading a defense."

Sure, I am guessing this is the majority. The really scary part about this one is, what if you are right? What if Cam can barely read a defense now? What happens when this freak learns how to play QB? Frankly, I think it is more likely that people underestimated his football IQ. Dramatically.



"What happens if Cam loses his scrambling ability?"

I don't know, he turns 33 years old? He is going to have better wheels than most starting QBs for the majority of his career.

 

[massraider]

I understand your points, and I mean no disrespect....but it doesn't seem like you've watched many Panthers games this year.

This is the only thing I can think. There's no other explanation. I sit in my living room, with the Sunday Ticket, and my boys and I watch Red Zone on one TV, and have been clicking over to the Panther offense on the other TV. We don't want to miss anything.Talking about Cam needing to stay in the pocket smacks of not watching him. He is making plays from everywhere a QB can make plays.

 

[THE SNOWMAN]

At this point I consider Cam a QB that can fill stadium seats and put points on the board. When it comes to winning games and sealing the deal, I think he falls short. He will be a player that can get his team to the playoffs but not the Super Bowl. Sorry but it's just how it is.

 

[njherdfan]

I don't understand all these people who are saying that Cam "can't win games." The Panthers are not a good team. Had they taken Dareus or Von Miller they would have a very good chance at getting Andrew Luck. He has done an incredible job just having his team be competitive in so many games, and he's only going to get better. If you want to say that you'd rather have Luck then I can respect that argument, but saying that Cam isn't a winner, a year after leading a team without any other 1st round picks on offense (probably) to an undefeated national championship in the toughest conference in the nation is absurd

 

[Reepicheep]

At this point I consider Cam a QB that can fill stadium seats and put points on the board. When it comes to winning games and sealing the deal, I think he falls short. He will be a player that can get his team to the playoffs but not the Super Bowl. Sorry but it's just how it is.

Fishing score 2/10. Too obvious, repeating poor arguments.

 

[EBF]

Cam, for reasons already mentioned. He's the best rookie QB ever and his upside seems immense.

I'm a big Luck fan though. I don't think there are more than 5 or 6 QBs I would trade him for. He's a quarterbacking genius and he has the requisite physical ability to make the jump to the pro game. His deep ball accuracy is his biggest weakness, but he doesn't lack arm strength. I've seen him put some long throws right on the money.

 

[proninja]

Newton has already proven himself against real NFL teams.

No matter how much potential everyone thinks Luck has, it is still unproven at the NFL level.

Count me in for this line of thinking. I also seriously underestimated Newton, but the pendeliumm may have swung too far the other way now. There are flaws in his game to be exploited, and the next chapter of Newton joining the elite will be whether or not he can adjust and keep adjusting and adapting. I guess part of the halo of success is, I feel like he WILL make that adjustment.

Luck, he should be good, but I'm not sure about his arm.

Just curious as to what those flaws are?The only thing I've seen is some poor decision making at the end of games. The way Cam was throwing the ball last week, you'd be hard pressed to find another NFL QB that could make the same throws. If the Panthers can find one WR2 that is as talented as the first guy off the bench on most other NFL teams Cam will take the next step forward.

I haven't seen every snap of panther football so I'll be upfront with that. But the potential weaknesses will be the more exotic packages he'll face, even this season, as it becomes clear that you don't want to let him beat you. I think it was articulated far better up the thread about the tendency to respect and work from the pocket vs the instinct to use what god gave you and improvise outside of the pocket. It's a great ability to have but if you get flushed out and bite too frequently, I think you're more apt to turn the ball over one way or the other, as well as put yourself out for bigger and harder hits. I also think its much different playing soft coverage when you're trailing versus staying competitive for 60'minutes. I think the turnovers are correctable and also a byproduct of winging it because you're trailing and being young, but they are a red flag at the moment. There are many who lived on talent and didn't absorb the game within the game within the game. Not saying cam cant or won't, he's fun to watch, I hope he does and based on his own evidenced will to win, I think be will, but until you do, it's speculation.

Sorry, but I think both points are invalid. Newton doesn't rely on his talents too quickly, in fact, he typically doesn't look to run until after the third read is made and nothing is available...or he is flushed out of the pocket. If he has receivers and there is protection, he rarely ever runs. In fact, here is a recent quote from Greg Cosell based on his observation of Newton..

Greg Cosell on Cam Newton: Have to drag him out of pocket w/ a ball & chain. Intuitively understands game played at highest level in pocket.

The second point isn't valid at all, because Carolina hasn't been down in games this season. The only game that they lost by more than one score was against Atlanta, where they actually led late in the game.

Newton certainly has to show that he can sustain what he has shown so far, but a lot of the negatives that are brought up about him are a case of people who haven't really watched him play this season. The one major thing that Newton will need to learn how to do going into the second half of the season and next year is closing out games. He has had three separate games this season where he had a chance to win from inside the redzone in the last two minutes of the game. One time, he completed a pass on fourth down that ended up a yard short, another time he rushed and ended up about two yards short. The last time was this past weekend, when he actually did produce a first a goal situation that was called back by penalty, eventually leading to a field goal attempt to take the game to overtime. Olindo Mare missed a 31 yard field goal though.

While he probably couldn't have done much differently last week, the other two games are situations where he will need to show that he can win in as the team moves forward. This team could easily have a winning record right now with just a few things breaking differently, and his success in the future will be based on how he continues to handle those moments.

It's actually a very similar situation to Manning's rookie season. He put up great numbers and put his team in a position to win almost every game, but they just kept ending up a little bit short. The next season, they went 13-3 and the rest is history. We'll see if Cam can follow in his footsteps.

This is fair, I knew they were close in the Green Bay game. I have looked but can't find a passing breakdown by quarter and half, but based on the splits I've seen, you're right on point one. But the fact of the matter is, even if you're getting one garbage drive in per game, its going to affect your digits over a 7 game sample. And as I said, I haven't come close to watching every snap of every game, I really have seen 4 Panther games and a half of another so my view of him is less than yours. The team around him stinks outside of Steve Smith, and he succeeds probably inspite of Fox, not because of him, so those are factors to consider, but I would say those game closing moments are going to be ones to watch. I think he'll find it, he's doing remarkable things for a player of his age.

A more interesting question than is he better than Luck might be, who had a better rookie season, him or Roethelsberger?

You should probably be aware that John Fox is now the coach of the Denver Broncos

 

[proninja]

For people that are using wins to evaluate Newton, I'd ask the following question: How'd he do last year playing at the same level of competition as Luck is still playing in?

 

[Daywalker]

I would look at it who would you rather have after taking 4-5 seasons of hits/injuries?

Haven't seen Newton enough to know how he would perform if his mobility was reduced to someone like a prime McNaab. Very mobile but not a beast at the goal line.

If Luck is the next Manning then normal wear and tear would be less of a concern and I'd go with him.

I tend to think the normal wear and tear would diminish Cam's game to a much higher degree.

 

[Reepicheep]

I would look at it who would you rather have after taking 4-5 seasons of hits/injuries?

Haven't seen Newton enough to know how he would perform if his mobility was reduced to someone like a prime McNaab. Very mobile but not a beast at the goal line.

If Luck is the next Manning then normal wear and tear would be less of a concern and I'd go with him.

I tend to think the normal wear and tear would diminish Cam's game to a much higher degree.

My thing with this "Luck might be/probably is the next Manning" line of thinking is . . . if anyone's the next Manning, it's the guy that is in the process of tossing Manning out of the rookie record books.

 

[mr roboto]

For people that are using wins to evaluate Newton, I'd ask the following question: How'd he do last year playing at the same a higer level of competition as Luck is still playing in?

FYP.SEC > PAC12.

 

[Fensalk]

I will go with Newton, and here's why:

1. He is making the NFL his freaking playground. Imagine if he wasn't on a team that was bad enough to have the #1 pick last year.

2. No mini-camp, abbreviated training camp, one decent WR, a defense that has no linebackers left, and is letting up points as fast as Cam can score them. And people say he is gonna regress? Hey fellas, this might be the worst Cam is ever gonna be. Wrap your noggin around that one. Wait till he learns to read NFL defenses better. Wait till he makes better decisions.

Fact is, if Luck comes in and rips it up after 8 weeks, no one is going to say, "Well, wait till teams learn to gameplan against him." And the reason, whether people want to admit it or not, is because everyone was wrong about Cam Newton. Talk about grasping at straws. This isn't some young pitcher that only throws the high heater, and everyone catches on.

Teams are going to gameplan against him? Sweet! Any of you amateur Belichicks got him figured out yet? Here's my call: Defend the whole dang field. Make sure you spy Cam, in case he takes off. Oh, and cover Stewart and the two tight ends on the short stuff. But make sure you defend 50 yards downfield, because if Cam gets pressure, and buys some time, one of these WRs is going to head for the end zone, and Cam is going to flick a 50 yard pass while checking out the hottie in the 3rd row. Gameplan, my nuts.

No knock to Luck, I have no reason to believe he won't be a perennial Pro Bowler, but if Luck had these numbers in his 4th year, everyone would be happy.

Many QBs enter the NFL and never progress. I was in the Joe Flacco thread the other day discussing how Flacco is basically the same QB he was in college, with the same flaws. Cam may never read defenses well. He may never make better decisions. But I can also tell that there is no flaw in Andrew Luck's game. Luck has a strong arm, quick release, great field vision, goes through his progressions, he can run, he throws well on the run.This thread tells me a lot of people don't appreciate just how amazing it is to see a college QB with no weaknesses in his game.

Of course I'd take Luck over Cam Newton.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

If you were a real NFL GM and you're starting your team today and you have the choice of Andrew Luck or Cam Newton knowing what you know, who do you pick?And why?J

Reposting the OP's question:answer: Andrew LuckWhy?: Because I believe in his style of QB play over Cam Newton's. Simple question and answer. I never alluded to any type of race issue. I'd like both to be successful and both to go to many probowls. But if I you ask me to put my team's future on one of them and I have to choose #1 overall, I'd pick Luck. To each his own, and you can all agree to disagree.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

FWIW, here are Luck's and Cam's numbers vs Oregon which was a common opponent Auburn and Stanford had last season:

Luck was 29/46 for 341 yards. He averaged 7.4 yds per attempt and had 2 TD's with 2 Int's.

Newton was 20/34 for 265 yards. He averaged 7.8 yds per attempt and had 2 TD's with 1 Int.

Luck had more passing yards and Stanford put up more points but his team lost while Newton's team won. Neither guy played his best game vs Oregon that's for certain.

 

[Joe Bryant]

No knock to Luck, I have no reason to believe he won't be a perennial Pro Bowler, but if Luck had these numbers in his 4th year, everyone would be happy.

Hi Mass,I haven't seen hype for a college QB like this since I can remember. I think anything less than putting up Cam Newton numbers his rookie year will be cause for tons of unhappiness from people. May not be justified, but I think that'll be the reality.

You really think they'll give him four years to produce given the hype he's receiving?

J

No, not produce. He can produce--and win--from year one. Other rookies seem to be able to. Why not Luck as well? I said "Cam numbers." I disagree that anything less than Cam numbers will be a disappointment. Because prior to this year, Cam numbers didn't exist. No rookie QB coming in deserves that kind of pressure.

This is what I'm saying. Maybe you're hearing different things about Luck than I am but it seems that every draft analyst is anointing him as a cant miss combination of Dan Marino rolled into Joe Montana with Peyton Manning Football IQ. He's Lebron James entering the NFL.

In my opinion anything less than him being incredible in his rookie year will be a huge disappointment. So yes, maybe not Cam numbers literally with the rushing but anything less than setting the league on fire in year one will be seen as a big disappointment by the football public.

I'm not saying that's fair. I'm saying that's how I think it'll be.

This point really has nothing to do with Newton. I've been loving him since the first snaps in a Panther uniform. My point here isn't about Newton. It's about expectations for Luck.

J

 

[Reepicheep]

This is what I'm saying. Maybe you're hearing different things about Luck than I am but it seems that every draft analyst is anointing him as a cant miss combination of Dan Marino rolled into Joe Montana with Peyton Manning Football IQ.

He's Lebron James entering the NFL.

In my opinion anything less than him being incredible in his rookie year will be a huge disappointment. So yes, maybe not Cam numbers literally with the rushing but anything less than setting the league on fire in year one will be seen as a big disappointment by the football public.

I'm not saying that's fair. I'm saying that's how I think it'll be.

This point really has nothing to do with Newton. I've been loving him since the first snaps in a Panther uniform. My point here isn't about Newton. It's about expectations for Luck.

J

I think you're right on with the bolded. But I don't understand how you can say it has nothing to do with Cam? Cam's success, combined with having been not thought much of by draft analysts, will magnify the expectations for Luck. We are going to see Luck vs. Cam's rookie year through X games stat comparisons the entire 2012 season. Like you said, it's not really fair. But that's how it will be.

 

[solorca]

I will go with Newton, and here's why:

1. He is making the NFL his freaking playground. Imagine if he wasn't on a team that was bad enough to have the #1 pick last year.

2. No mini-camp, abbreviated training camp, one decent WR, a defense that has no linebackers left, and is letting up points as fast as Cam can score them. And people say he is gonna regress? Hey fellas, this might be the worst Cam is ever gonna be. Wrap your noggin around that one. Wait till he learns to read NFL defenses better. Wait till he makes better decisions.

Fact is, if Luck comes in and rips it up after 8 weeks, no one is going to say, "Well, wait till teams learn to gameplan against him." And the reason, whether people want to admit it or not, is because everyone was wrong about Cam Newton. Talk about grasping at straws. This isn't some young pitcher that only throws the high heater, and everyone catches on.

Teams are going to gameplan against him? Sweet! Any of you amateur Belichicks got him figured out yet? Here's my call: Defend the whole dang field. Make sure you spy Cam, in case he takes off. Oh, and cover Stewart and the two tight ends on the short stuff. But make sure you defend 50 yards downfield, because if Cam gets pressure, and buys some time, one of these WRs is going to head for the end zone, and Cam is going to flick a 50 yard pass while checking out the hottie in the 3rd row. Gameplan, my nuts.

No knock to Luck, I have no reason to believe he won't be a perennial Pro Bowler, but if Luck had these numbers in his 4th year, everyone would be happy.

Many QBs enter the NFL and never progress. I was in the Joe Flacco thread the other day discussing how Flacco is basically the same QB he was in college, with the same flaws. Cam may never read defenses well. He may never make better decisions. But I can also tell that there is no flaw in Andrew Luck's game. Luck has a strong arm, quick release, great field vision, goes through his progressions, he can run, he throws well on the run.This thread tells me a lot of people don't appreciate just how amazing it is to see a college QB with no weaknesses in his game.

Of course I'd take Luck over Cam Newton.

If Cam never progresses, he will still be an excellent NFL QB. He is currently on pace for...4780 yards passing

574 yards rushing

36 total touchdowns (22 passing)

18 interceptions

Your point is odd though, because Newton has clearly ALREADY progressed from his time in college.

 

[Joe Bryant]

This is what I'm saying. Maybe you're hearing different things about Luck than I am but it seems that every draft analyst is anointing him as a cant miss combination of Dan Marino rolled into Joe Montana with Peyton Manning Football IQ.

He's Lebron James entering the NFL.

In my opinion anything less than him being incredible in his rookie year will be a huge disappointment. So yes, maybe not Cam numbers literally with the rushing but anything less than setting the league on fire in year one will be seen as a big disappointment by the football public.

I'm not saying that's fair. I'm saying that's how I think it'll be.

This point really has nothing to do with Newton. I've been loving him since the first snaps in a Panther uniform. My point here isn't about Newton. It's about expectations for Luck.

J

I think you're right on with the bolded. But I don't understand how you can say it has nothing to do with Cam? Cam's success, combined with having been not thought much of by draft analysts, will magnify the expectations for Luck. We are going to see Luck vs. Cam's rookie year through X games stat comparisons the entire 2012 season. Like you said, it's not really fair. But that's how it will be.

What I mean is that this is really all about Luck meeting expectations that people have for him. Regardless of whether guys like Newton or Ponder or Dalton have done well or not. Yes, they'll surely enter into the conversation in some form. Just like Peyton Manning's rookie interceptions will on the other side. But they'll do it more in the way of just another bar that is set. But mostly, I'm thinking now that Luck has the hype like I can't remember seeing about a QB. And it seems that he's almost in an impossible situation to meet expectations given that hype.

Lebron James did it. But I'm not convinced Andrew Luck is the NFL QB equivalent of Lebron James.

J

 

[haterade]

This one's easy.

One guy has proven he can perform against NFL defenses... one guy hasn't (yet).

I'd take the proven guy over the prospect as my franchise qb everyday...

 

[jray14]

As a Panthers fan, I've seen pretty much every snap of Cam's so far, and to me it seems like some of the people responding here haven't seen enough of Cam's game to make some of the statements they are making. His pocket awareness and decision-making when reading defenses has been stellar so far in my mind, aside from a few mistakes late in games (although they have been few). I think his ability as a runner helps him more because of his ability to slide around in the pocket and extend the play, and also to make the D more honest, both of which help open things up to make plays through the air. Other than designed runs,he scrambles only as a last resort. He truly seems like a pocket passer that only uses his immense rushing skills when it is needed.

I didn't come to post to dissect Cam's game, though, because it has been done countless other places by smarter football people than me. To me the presence of this thread is nothing short of amazing. When Andrew Luck announced that he would be going back to school, it felt like nothing short of a death knell for a lot of Panther fans. I know I was devastated. The team had just had one of the most disheartening seasons of any team I can remember. No hope. Owner bashed for not spending money and playing for the lock out. He was our chance to finally get a franchise QB and it was lost. When the draft rolled around a huge majority of Panther fans were not at all happy with the pick. I remember going to a bar and hearing nothing but grumbling about the pick. It took one game for most people to come out and freely admit they were wrong. To go from devastation when Luck went back to school to a poll that Cam is easily winning over Luck is pretty impressive to me.

The thing I like most about Cam is it is clear that he want to improve and that loves the game and winning above all else. After the icon/entertainer quotes Cam made after he was drafted, it seemed like a lot of the veterans were skeptical of him (Ryan Kalil is one I remember making a few comments). Just like the fans, he has turned that on it's head. Watch any of the locker room film or read comments and it is clear that his teammates love him and play their hearts out for him. The losses, as others have pointed out, cannot fairly be blamed all on him. The defense is TERRIBLE. Naanee is TERRIBLE. I love the coaching staff so far though, and I think Rivera and Chud have the team going in the right direction. Cam will only improve from here. Which is scary.

I usually just lurk here and soak up the knowledge (I've never posted), but I felt the need to post here. In a few short months Cam has endeared himself to me as a Panthers fan and I would take him easily over Luck, even if Luck turns into the next Manning. Try reading that sentence to me on draft night a few months ago.

 

[Reepicheep]

I usually just lurk here and soak up the knowledge (I've never posted), but I felt the need to post here. In a few short months Cam has endeared himself to me as a Panthers fan and I would take him easily over Luck, even if Luck turns into the next Manning. Try reading that sentence to me on draft night a few months ago.

Very happy for you Panthers fans. This is totally OT, but since there's lots of Panthers fans in here, just wanted to say, I have been to Packers games in Philly, Baltimore, and DC. This year I went to the Panthers game. Far and away the best tailgating & stadium experience I have ever had as an opposing fan. /hijack

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Rick Mirer once set a NFL record for rookies in passing yards and improved Seattle from 2 to 6 wins. That didn't exactly work out. So I'm not sure the bird in hand argument exactly holds up.

Also Newton is putting up D. Culpepper numbers which he was able to sustain for about 5 years before it ended badly. If Newton continues to try and run 8-10 times a game and is basically a goalline RB he's eventually going to get injured. It remains to be seen how great Newton will be if he is just a pocket passer.

If I believed Luck was as good as Elway or Manning I would take him over Newton to start my franchise.

Also it's gonna be hard to compare their stats. It's kind of like comparing Vick to Brady and trying to determine who the better franchise QB is.

 

[GDogg]

Rick Mirer once set a NFL record for rookies in passing yards and improved Seattle from 2 to 6 wins. That didn't exactly work out. So I'm not sure the bird in hand argument exactly holds up.

Also Newton is putting up D. Culpepper numbers which he was able to sustain for about 5 years before it ended badly. If Newton continues to try and run 8-10 times a game and is basically a goalline RB he's eventually going to get injured. It remains to be seen how great Newton will be if he is just a pocket passer.

If I believed Luck was as good as Elway or Manning I would take him over Newton to start my franchise.

Also it's gonna be hard to compare their stats. It's kind of like comparing Vick to Brady and trying to determine who the better franchise QB is.

Sort of. While not anywhere near the same running threat as Newton (he doesn't do it as much), he's still going to run for more than 1000 yards in his three year Stanford career (currently has 926 yards rushing in his career), to go with 7 rushing TDs.

That's nowhere near Newton, but Luck is far more mobile (and willing to run) than Brady or any of the other "pocket passers" currently in the NFL save Aaron Rodgers.

 

[Reepicheep]

Rick Mirer once set a NFL record for rookies in passing yards and improved Seattle from 2 to 6 wins. That didn't exactly work out. So I'm not sure the bird in hand argument exactly holds up.

The problem with the Rick Mirer analogy is that besides accumulating a lot of yards on volume he was pretty much terrible.

Also it's gonna be hard to compare their stats. It's kind of like comparing Vick to Brady and trying to determine who the better franchise QB is.

Comparing their passing stats should be pretty simple. One of them will be a better passer than the other.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Rick Mirer once set a NFL record for rookies in passing yards and improved Seattle from 2 to 6 wins. That didn't exactly work out. So I'm not sure the bird in hand argument exactly holds up.

The problem with the Rick Mirer analogy is that besides accumulating a lot of yards on volume he was pretty much terrible.

Also it's gonna be hard to compare their stats. It's kind of like comparing Vick to Brady and trying to determine who the better franchise QB is.

Comparing their passing stats should be pretty simple. One of them will be a better passer than the other.

Are we trying to determine who is the better passer? Or better franchise QB?

 

[Raiderfan32904]

We need a spatula to scrape Raiderfan32904 up off the pavement after the pounding he got in this thread.I almost feel bad for him. If he wasn't so wrong, and so frequently wrong in defense of his position.

Not sure what you mean by this. But you are entitled to your opinion. Others have since chimed in opinions along the lines of what I was saying. And the poll is not a runaway for either guy. Cam Newton may be the next great QB of the decade. Andrew Luck may be the next Ryan Leaf. Who knows? But the point is Joe was asking which of the two would you start a REAL NFL team with. Not a fantasy team. I am impressed with Cam, and he's convinced me that he's worthy of his #1 overall pick status. He's a damn good QB. I've given him props over and again. But from what I've seen of Andrew Luck, he is my choice and I'd take him as my starting QB. I don't get the angst about that opinion. 45 Super Bowl winners and one has been a dual threat QB. However, I do think that is changing by the way with both Ben R. and A. Rodgers very fluid running QB's. But that's even more reason to like Luck, because he can run as well.

 

[Reepicheep]

Also it's gonna be hard to compare their stats. It's kind of like comparing Vick to Brady and trying to determine who the better franchise QB is.

Comparing their passing stats should be pretty simple. One of them will be a better passer than the other.

Are we trying to determine who is the better passer? Or better franchise QB?

I guess you are saying that if Luck is a better passer than Cam, but Cam is making lots of noise on the ground, then we will have to weight those against each other. But first Luck has to prove he is even on par with Cam as an NFL passer, let alone a better one.To put it another way - we don't have any problem comparing Cam and Bradford statistically. Cam is simply better.

 

[massraider]

I will go with Newton, and here's why:

1. He is making the NFL his freaking playground. Imagine if he wasn't on a team that was bad enough to have the #1 pick last year.

2. No mini-camp, abbreviated training camp, one decent WR, a defense that has no linebackers left, and is letting up points as fast as Cam can score them. And people say he is gonna regress? Hey fellas, this might be the worst Cam is ever gonna be. Wrap your noggin around that one. Wait till he learns to read NFL defenses better. Wait till he makes better decisions.

Fact is, if Luck comes in and rips it up after 8 weeks, no one is going to say, "Well, wait till teams learn to gameplan against him." And the reason, whether people want to admit it or not, is because everyone was wrong about Cam Newton. Talk about grasping at straws. This isn't some young pitcher that only throws the high heater, and everyone catches on.

Teams are going to gameplan against him? Sweet! Any of you amateur Belichicks got him figured out yet? Here's my call: Defend the whole dang field. Make sure you spy Cam, in case he takes off. Oh, and cover Stewart and the two tight ends on the short stuff. But make sure you defend 50 yards downfield, because if Cam gets pressure, and buys some time, one of these WRs is going to head for the end zone, and Cam is going to flick a 50 yard pass while checking out the hottie in the 3rd row. Gameplan, my nuts.

No knock to Luck, I have no reason to believe he won't be a perennial Pro Bowler, but if Luck had these numbers in his 4th year, everyone would be happy.

Many QBs enter the NFL and never progress.

Yeah? "Many"?How many came in and looked close to as good as Cam as looked (I won't say 'as good' because, well, you know, has anyone?) as rookies and then not developed? What percentage? Five? Seven percent?

I think that is simply an untrue statement. Feel free to try and back it up, but by any legit measurement, most QBs that come in the league and look good right away, get better.

I also think, regarding this whole 'football intelligence/reading defenses thing':

It's not a tangible thing we can quantify, without the coaches watching tape with us, explaining if the QB in question made the right choice or not. We don't have access to coaches tape, everyone is going by what the scouts say. For the most part. You can watch a Stanford or Panther game, and might catch a replay here or there, and see where a QB made a nice read, but when they call audibles, we don't know what the change was, and so on.

This isn't to say that Luck cannot read defenses. He's a bright kid from a football family, I am sure he can read defenses as well or better than most college QBs.

This is to say that with Cam Newton, one of two things must be true:

1. Reading defenses isn't that important to NFL success, or

2. Cam can read defenses a lot better than people are giving him credit for.

Gonna guess it is #2. Everyone claimed it would take Cam forever, because he had to learn how to read defenses. Of course, no one had proof that he couldn't, it was just assumed. He didn't prove that he couldn't read defenses at Auburn, he just ran the offense they gave him. So because he didn't run a pro offense, it was assumed he couldn't. In hindsight, turns out that was kind of stupid, to make that assumption.

It all comes back to what I said earlier. People don't like being wrong. If Luck throws for 4,000 yards next year, people will not be telling us to look out!, because Rick Mirer once looked good, and he sucked. He's so good, the worst thing people can say is, "Well, he might never develop. It happens!"

Grasping at straws.

 

[Joe Bryant]

It all comes back to what I said earlier. People don't like being wrong. If Luck throws for 4,000 yards next year, people will not be telling us to look out!, because Rick Mirer once looked good, and he sucked. He's so good, the worst thing people can say is, "Well, he might never develop. It happens!"Grasping at straws.

Sure. Nobody likes being wrong. I think everyone would agree with that.But I don't agree with the other point. I've been as loud a Cam Newton fan as anyone I know, but Vince Young and Rick Mirer are totally valid points to consider.I still think Newton (and Dalton and Ponder even) are the stories of the year though. Fantastic.J

 

[massraider]

But I don't agree with the other point. I've been as loud a Cam Newton fan as anyone I know, but Vince Young and Rick Mirer are totally valid points to consider.

I think they are valid in the sense that it is not a lock that good-looking young QBs don't always build on good rookie years. And if one was debating Cam Newton in a vacuum, it might be a reason for (some) concern. Some, not much. It's not like it is an epidemic. I mean, it's worth noting. Not every good rookie year means long term success. I think it's a wash, at best. Because the easy argument that you can make against Luck is, not every top college prospect becomes an elite NFL QB. People are not even discussing the possibility that Luck will be anything but a star, right from Day 1.

 

[jonboltz]

It all comes back to what I said earlier. People don't like being wrong. If Luck throws for 4,000 yards next year, people will not be telling us to look out!, because Rick Mirer once looked good, and he sucked. He's so good, the worst thing people can say is, "Well, he might never develop. It happens!"Grasping at straws.

Sure. Nobody likes being wrong. I think everyone would agree with that.But I don't agree with the other point. I've been as loud a Cam Newton fan as anyone I know, but Vince Young and Rick Mirer are totally valid points to consider.I still think Newton (and Dalton and Ponder even) are the stories of the year though. Fantastic.J

I think the points would be more valid Cam's performance was similar to Young or Mirer.

 

[Reepicheep]

It all comes back to what I said earlier. People don't like being wrong. If Luck throws for 4,000 yards next year, people will not be telling us to look out!, because Rick Mirer once looked good, and he sucked. He's so good, the worst thing people can say is, "Well, he might never develop. It happens!"Grasping at straws.

Sure. Nobody likes being wrong. I think everyone would agree with that.But I don't agree with the other point. I've been as loud a Cam Newton fan as anyone I know, but Vince Young and Rick Mirer are totally valid points to consider.I still think Newton (and Dalton and Ponder even) are the stories of the year though. Fantastic.J

I think the points would be more valid Cam's performance was similar to Young or Mirer.

 

[GDogg]

It all comes back to what I said earlier. People don't like being wrong. If Luck throws for 4,000 yards next year, people will not be telling us to look out!, because Rick Mirer once looked good, and he sucked. He's so good, the worst thing people can say is, "Well, he might never develop. It happens!"

Grasping at straws.

Sure. Nobody likes being wrong. I think everyone would agree with that.But I don't agree with the other point. I've been as loud a Cam Newton fan as anyone I know, but Vince Young and Rick Mirer are totally valid points to consider.

I still think Newton (and Dalton and Ponder even) are the stories of the year though. Fantastic.

J

You mean the idea that a rookie QB could do well, but not continue to grow and become a good NFL QB in the future, right? If so, I agree. Otherwise, Vince Young or Rick Mirer and their careers are completely irrelevant in terms of analyzing Cam Newton and his future prospects. They are different players, on different teams, in different systems with a myriad of different factors affecting their growth.

 

[mbuehner]

This is an entirely silly question. You take Newton every day of the year, every year. Proven- end of discussion. How many franchises have been set back by 'sure things' that didn't pan out? Where's Matt Lienart these days?

Let me put this in perspective: Cam Newton is ALREADY the 6th best rookie QB in NFL history. Not in per game, in raw numbers. In 8 games he's outplayed Marino's 11 game rookie season. He's on pace for 4786 yards and 36 touchdowns.

I understand we aren't talking fantasy, but just as a frame of reference he's on pace for 456 FBG fps, which would be the greatest fantasy performance of ANY QB, of any PLAYER, in NFL history. The greatest fantasy performance in history. Its ridiculous. Don't buy projections, ok how about this- since 2002, there has been 1 fantasy performance in the first 8 games played better than Cam Newton this season- Brady in 2007. That would be the year Brady set the TD record. Newton isn't having one the best rookie seasons ever, he's having one of the best seasons ever, period. And he's doing it completing 61% of his passes and 8.4 y/a, so it aint just with his feet.

Unless he gets hurt or the wheels completely come off he is going to shatter every rookie QB record. He's on pace to break the record in 2 more games... and he hasn't even played Tenn and Indianapolis yet.

So. You are an NFL GM- what are your expectations for Andrew Luck? He's going to come and break the new NFL rookie plus 1 yard? Come on.