Klimtology
Footballguy
I'm thinking at least 2 yrs.
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Stock Thread (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Klimtology
Footballguy
This is true.
Yeah, but you enjoyed solid, risk free returns and slept well at night....not like you LOST money.
@McBokonon
Thoughts on TMDX? Already given up the earnings pop. Only thing I’ve seen is some other biotechs having not so good days. I only have a half share or less. Wondering if now might be a decent chance to accumulate. I’d probably be selling sort of similar small underperforming holdings to concentrate into TMDX, not using cash.
Thoughts on TMDX? Already given up the earnings pop. Only thing I’ve seen is some other biotechs having not so good days. I only have a half share or less. Wondering if now might be a decent chance to accumulate. I’d probably be selling sort of similar small underperforming holdings to concentrate into TMDX, not using cash.
McBokonon
Footballguy
There’s also the stupid Paul Gosar stuff.
I think selling lower conviction stocks might be a good idea. Or cash-secured puts? I don’t mind having a smallish position here but I’m tempted, too.
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NajehHejan
Footballguy
Antonio Linares’ (who?) take:
$AMD has hit an all time high of $188.5 today.
Here´s how I think the stock can 20X from here over the next decade:
The AI landscape is often narrowly viewed through the lens of GPU sales, yet $AMD's diverse business segments serve as effective distribution channels for its core AI technology.
This distribution advantage is poised to yield superior unit economics for $AMD in the future. The trajectory of AI extends far beyond GPUs; it's set to permeate all computing platforms in the next decade, from smartphones to household appliances.
$AMD's expertise in chiplets uniquely positions it to integrate disparate compute engines, paving the way to imbue its products with AI capabilities. This strategic approach transcends mere competition with $NVDA in GPU sales.
By introducing chiplet-based GPUs to the market with a distinctive price-performance ratio and refining its ROCm software, $AMD stands a strong chance of gaining GPU market share from $NVDA. Simultaneously repurposing this technology across its business segments enhances $AMD's overall chances of success.
The potential gains from seizing market share from $NVDA are substantial, as is the prospect of $AMD becoming a leading provider of AI-enabled PCs. Moreover, $AMD can pursue both endeavors at minimal cost, leveraging the competitive advantage of its chiplet platform across various product lines.
With an established distribution channel in the PC (CPU) sector, $AMD stands to reap significant returns on AI investment even if it doesn't outpace $NVDA in GPU sales.
This underscores the asymmetrical nature of $AMD's foray into AI. Looking ahead, personalized computing is the future of the industry.
Companies will increasingly demand tailored compute solutions, and $AMD is uniquely positioned to meet these needs. Competitors like $INTC and $NVDA will inevitably shift towards chiplet technology to remain competitive in the AI space and offer customized computation solutions.
However, this transition will take time, providing $AMD with a considerable head start and a distinct roadmap that sets it apart from the competition.
Small caps will do much better when the Fed starts lowering rates because they typically are more leveraged. I have been adding small cap exposure such as VBR and VBK this week.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Jonah Lupton’s (who) take:
This is going to blow a few minds so get ready...
I will always be a $CELH shareholder because I really like the company and the products but the stock is up 2,200% since my first buys in 2020.
$CELH is up 65% in the past 5 weeks and 30% in the past week.
As of today $CELH market cap is $19B, when I first invested in the company the market cap was under $600M.
I still believe $CELH can be a $50B+ company someday so I'm a long term shareholder but I have been aggressively trimming my position the past few days to reflect the potential upside over the next 3-5 years.
$TMDX reported stellar earnings a couple days ago with very strong (and conservative) guidance for 2024. Over the past couple days as $TMDX has pulled back I have been aggressively adding to my position and buying some calls.
Within the next couple days it's very possible that $TMDX becomes my largest position because I believe $TMDX now has more upside potential over the next 3-5 years vs $CELH.
Based on my estimates and models I think $CELH has another 100-150% upside over the next 3-5 years.
Based on my estimates and models I think $TMDX has 200-300% upside over the next 3-5 years.
I don't think enough investors truly understand $TMDX and the opportunity for this stock to absolutely crush it over the next few years.
Should have bought XLNX back in summer of 2020 when I mentioned it!
it went from about $100 a share to almost $200 before it converted to AMD. My Yahoo finance widget says I’m at a gain of 250% which ain’t bad. Thought about selling it a bunch of times and luckily didn’t.That said, starting to get frothy. Dell being up 27% AHs when they beat the revenue estimate by 0.7% and raised the dividend by 20% is interesting. Seems a wee bit frothy when that revenue is actually down 11% from 2022 and the dividend went from around 1.6% to about 1.9%.
I saw a mention of the magic AI word but if AI was stimulating growth so much why would their revenue be down 11% YOY while others are going up? I like the dividend raise but paying a 27% premium for a 0.3% higher dividend has an 80+ year break even point.
I’m letting things run a bit but this price action seems like a big *** red flag to me.
@NajehHejan Thanks for the hot takes. Who are those guys? I like to think I do some research but honestly I don’t have enough time.
I don’t have a large CELH position. It’s green but it’s a small position. I may just sit on it and add when it dips, especially if there is an overall market dip.
I do have some other stuff I need to shave off and that does make me feel better about potentially just moving most of that to TMDX.
I don’t have a large CELH position. It’s green but it’s a small position. I may just sit on it and add when it dips, especially if there is an overall market dip.
I do have some other stuff I need to shave off and that does make me feel better about potentially just moving most of that to TMDX.
Capella
Footballguy
So much good advice in this thread. For sure.Should have bought XLNX back in summer of 2020 when I mentioned it!
Definitely and I wish I paid more attention sometimes! I just enjoy poking you when you give kudos to Totem, who I adore. We actually had a lot of discussion about XLNX because of the AMD merger. There was a pretty big (like 15%) discount if you bought XLNX right before AMD got all the approvals. AMD’s run has it as my 4th largest holding right above MDB, although I did sell half of MDB when it was above $500 in 2021. Should have sold it all and bought back in, SMH.So much good advice in this thread. For sure.Should have bought XLNX back in summer of 2020 when I mentioned it!
Desert_Power
Footballguy
For sure. Some really bad advice sometimes tooSo much good advice in this thread. For sure.Should have bought XLNX back in summer of 2020 when I mentioned it!
Lol. So very true. If you stayed away from penny stock advice, which turned into another thread, you did better. That said, I made almost as much on CYDY as I did on Zoom and I sold ZM at $570 a share (after buying below the IPO price) which was the all time peak day.For sure. Some really bad advice sometimes tooSo much good advice in this thread. For sure.Should have bought XLNX back in summer of 2020 when I mentioned it!
McBokonon
Footballguy
$CLS taking off again today. Still only 14.5X Forward Earnings.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
I don't have the data, but among the large caps, I feel like there's a correlation between layoffs and reports that are beating estimates. OKTA is a recent example, but it seems true of others like META and GOOGL.
I've heard in podcasts and from people at work (experts) that AI is changing the economy now. Companies are letting go of staff whose work can be performed in some fashion with AI. It's fascinating. This is what we need to figure out. Who are the beneficiaries beyond the hardware makers.
I've heard in podcasts and from people at work (experts) that AI is changing the economy now. Companies are letting go of staff whose work can be performed in some fashion with AI. It's fascinating. This is what we need to figure out. Who are the beneficiaries beyond the hardware makers.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
One of my clients is a hedge fund manager and he told me the exact same thing about 6 months ago. He was buying an investment property that I told him would not underwrite to cashflow and I asked him why he was buying it, and he said his investment firm was projecting massive appreciation in the stock market and all assets over the next 7 years for the exact reasons you mention here, and he just wanted to be levered into as many assets as he could safely get into.
I am still a bit skeptical that AI is close to being capable of things like that (again, as a user of Google's Gemini this thing feels like it's 100 years away), but it's certainly what some of these companies seem to be banking on.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I'm amused my BrokerageLink account "protects me" from buying DM at $.62 because penny stock. Where TF was its protection when DM was $26/shr? THAT'S when I needed to be protected from myself.For sure. Some really bad advice sometimes tooSo much good advice in this thread. For sure.Should have bought XLNX back in summer of 2020 when I mentioned it!
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Companies are already able to do more than you're imagining using AI. It gets some basic things wrong, sure, but it would likely enhance the efficiency of most everyone working a desk job if they were given the blessing to use it and if configured appropriately.
The concept of a human digital twin is kind of intriguing, but consider if Microsoft Co-Pilot has access to every document you've ever created, every e-mail you've ever written, every spreadsheet and presentation you've ever put together in a 20+ year career. This is a model intended to predict the next word in a sentence based on what it has ingested. If you go on vacation for a week and you're my supervisor, can it answer a query from me in a way that likely mimics the way you'd respond to it? Now, take that to its logical conclusion and it's also completely terrifying. But useful.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This is where I'm skeptical though. Because the market seems to be pricing things like this is happening now, or in the very near future, whereas my experience in using AI is that we aren't anywhere close to that.
Granted, I'm not working at Microsoft or Meta so I don't know how well it's going internally there. But I'm in hospitality and it's a HUGE movement in this industry. Because in hospitality the majority of our time/costs is in interacting with guests, and if we can automate that with AI, that's a massive change, and there is a massive push for it. But I've tried using the stuff they're pushing. Sure, it can answer "what's the Wifi password", but I have pretty robust digital guidebooks for guests so probably 90% of the queries I get are way more complicated than an AI can even come close to answering. I've tried using a few of the popular hospitality AI assistants. I currently have them set up to where I have to give confirmation that their reply is okay before sending it, and if I were to let them actually send it I would be sitting on an endless pile of 1-star reviews or lost revenue because it's just way off. Obviously all of that will improve over time but I remain skeptical that we are weeks or months away from that and not years or even decades.
I’ll be frank with you. The experts saying AI is changing the economy are not correct. AI will but all these tech layoffs are helping estimates because there is still a ton of dead weight. I worked at GE back when it was a star. Every year managers ranked employees and they would layoff the bottom ranked folks. Tech companies over hired. They could purge so many people and have no effect on their revenue. My wife’s company laid off a ton and they are doing great. She tells me all the time about people who should have been laid off for good people who shouldn’t have. Anyway, people saying that these current layoffs are due to AI versus just having too many people, many of whom are effectively useless, is blowing smoke up your ***.
I think AI will change things but the current layoffs aren’t due to it. Things were going so well at many companies that they hadn’t cut off the fat. The past couple years, the fat (and likely some good meat) has been trimmed and that has absolutely gone to the bottom line. Now, there may be a lot of executives that are touting AI because it’s a buzzword, but I don’t believe for a second that the past couple years of layoffs weren’t more to do with the stock market basically demanding better profits than AI.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Yeah, I can't speak to that example directly, but it sounds like an early attempt that needs improvement. Curious what the core of it is. I'm guessing they aren't using OpenAI.
MOST current AI efforts aren't centered around replacing people, but improving the efficiency and effectiveness of people. And most seem to be using it as a redistribution of resources when it is effective (e.g., I can use my time doing more value-add activities) rather than wholesale layoffs. If anything, it's more targeted as reduced headcount through attrition IF it can be supported by productivity gains.
I was recently in a presentation for a company that's designing this kind of stuff for financial services. Consider if I'm a lender for a company that has 15 different policies I should know. You can upload all 15 policies to a central directory. If someone asks me a question I don't know the answer to, instead of picking up a phone and calling 3 different people to get the answer I need, I can type it into my laptop, which will immediately cite the language and the policy it pulled from. If multiple policies contradict each other, it will flag them for review. Instead of embarrassingly taking 10 minutes to answer my client, I can do so in a few seconds. These are fairly easy, mundane use cases. It can plug into fraud cases and alert you when there's a new trend emerging, analyze client records and identify emerging concerns (or maybe that client you could keep from defaulting by getting them into a new product), etc. Pretty useful stuff. Def not decades out.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I can tell you about a little base metal that has no substitute and is used in the manufacturing of EVERYTHING hardware related. Rhymes with 'sin'.....
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
This is fair, though I don't think we're talking about an either/or situation here. No doubt fat-trimming is taking place. But I know AI is replacing people, particularly in some of the liberal-arts-y roles, including content writing. My wife writes content and I used to review it. No more. All ChatGPT. My boss's 11 year old son uses AI to generate code to make games on Roblox. What? Yeah, this is anecdotal, but this is scaling now. Not will, is.
I also can't get on board categorizing AI as a buzzword. "Game changer" doesn't even do it justice, IMO. Everything will be different. Everything. I just don't know what the societal impact will be.
jwb
Footballguy
I'm a 20-year self-employed copywriter. AI is definitely replacing the lower level work, like short product descriptions, real estate descriptions, etc. It can definitely help with writers block too. But it's not overly creative, and it can't sell. Not yet, anyway.
Will it replace human written content? Like real content (published content at online publications/etc?) Not quite yet (no publication wants to be the next SI). But websites that wanted lots of internal blog posts for SEO - yea it can do that, but that's being diminished by search engines too. If everyone has gobs of "meh" content, then it's worthless.
I would say it's hurting graphics people more right now. I can use DALL-E and create images that fit exactly what I am writing about. Two years ago, someone had to be hired for that.
That all stated, I am glad I'm 57 and have most of my career behind me. I would not recommend my particular career path to my 20-something nieces and nephews. But this is going to be true of a TON of white collar jobs.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Right. Our marketing team can turn around things in minutes that used to take hours to days.
Just don't look at the hands.
Just don't look at the hands.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I’ve heard it’s helping programmers quite a bit but that’s secondhand. I do a lot of Federal and other grant writing and people who do this work are trying to figure out how to integrate AI for some of the mundane, repetitive stuff but it’s not really working yet. It’s working well for things like position descriptions.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
They are guys I follow on twitter who have decent followings. The one guy I just started following but I’ve been following Jonah Lupton for about a year now. The dude crushes it. He is a tech growth guy who posts some good free content. I’d recommend following him. He has a pay service for like 65/mo that I’m actually considering. He details all his moves, his hedge strategies, his full portfolio by weight, etc.
General Malaise
Footballguy
VRTX
identikit
Footballguy
And 'win'
Something not heard all that much locally, bromigo
At least in February
You were talking about Google and Okta, not Sports Illustrated or kids searching homework. I know that AI/ChatGPT is a big leap but your examples are things that Football Guys did in their draft summaries or my Baseball app did to write a simple summary of my son’s baseball games. I googled for code writing examples, as did tons of developers. That’s been going on for many years. ChatGPT gets us there much faster and can replace some of your examples. It can make people a lot faster like developers. I’m not trying to minimize AI but it is a buzzword for stock values and executives who want to look to be at the forefront.
What @FreeBaGeL and I have mentioned above is that AI hasn’t been the reason behind all the tech layoffs you mentioned. That started because the market was demanding profits and better earnings and it was obvious that tech firms over hired so there was already a lot of fat to trim.
Again, I’m with you that there are big changes coming but the “layoffs” right now are the low hanging fruit that frankly people could do with Google search just at a much slower pace. That is a big jump to having an AI that can take over non low hanging fruit jobs. Those layoffs now are not because of AI but because they could be trimmed and not affect the company’s revenue/growth.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
AI can and will take over non low-hanging fruit jobs. I'm on the front lines and am seeing it happen.
Anyway, once upon a time, emerging technologies resulted in eliminating blue collar jobs, and now they are coming for the white collar jobs. I suppose there really is no before-and-after. It's human evolution, with notable points on the path. The industrial revolution, nuclear fission, the internet...
No surprise there will be winners and losers.
Anyway, once upon a time, emerging technologies resulted in eliminating blue collar jobs, and now they are coming for the white collar jobs. I suppose there really is no before-and-after. It's human evolution, with notable points on the path. The industrial revolution, nuclear fission, the internet...
No surprise there will be winners and losers.
Todem
Footballguy
Capitalism in a nutshell.
It ain't perfect.....but it's better than anything else on this planet.
God bless America.
Todem
Footballguy
Unemployment at all time low's so yes.....some for lack of a better term "fat trimming" you hate to see large layoffs...but it's par for the course when companies get bloated and need improve the bottom line for sharholders.
Interestingly enough I was in a large conference yesterday with some of the very best private equity managers and they said some very interesting things.
1. There are more and more companies than ever before opting to stay private vs being publicly traded. And I am talking about very successful full cash flow cows in the small and mid space as well as some large size. They rather not be under all the "scrutiny" of being publicly traded.
2. And yes we are still in the dugout when it comes to AI. There is definitely some irrational exuberance in the air surrounding AI and in that part of the stock market. Swim with caution.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Right. Buy the AI equivalents of Amazon, not pets.com.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Tin prices around $25K/tonne....down from the highs of 55K/tonne, so it's definitely an anchor on Alphamin. BUT - company paying shareholders 7% and management on the road next month to market in NYC/BOS. This is a story that will resonate. Not a lot of ways to play tin. And tin is the glue of *EVERYTHING* being discusses in here.
Patience wearing thin, I get it but in time, I would bet my life on tin prices going higher.
General Malaise
Footballguy
1 is absolutely spot on. Not every company is READY for the show and not every company wants to answer to regulators and shareholders. Some are doing just fine in their lane.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Why didn't you tell us their mine had a tin resource grade of 4.5%?!?!?!?
What the hell does that mean? They make it seem like it should be very impressive. 4.5% is never going to sound impressive to anyone wrt anything without a significant amount of context that screams, "Hey! 4.5%!!!"
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Yes, that was snark just for snark's sake. If I had a serious question, it would be, "Did they raise any cash in the last 5 months? 'Cause as of 9/30 (last I could find on their site), they had not very much cash. And semi-annual commitments of more-than-not-very-much cash.
General Malaise
Footballguy
1% or less is typical. Happy to Ted Talk ore content if you want but 4.5% is otherworldly in mining tin.
Wait, are you teasing me?
General Malaise
Footballguy
I don't think they need to raise cash. See dividend, 7%.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Yeah, that's what made me ask. At 9/30, they had
Cash and cash equivalents: 10,026,740 - down $110 mil from a year earlier.
Dividends paid: (55,977,520)
But I just looked quickly on their site for the most recent financials and didn't dig any further.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
The chance to give you #### was just a bonus.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
"Big **** Bitcoin AI Block Chain" IMO
