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Tavon Austin - Upside (1 Viewer)

Eminence

Footballguy
The Rams recently took Tavon Austin in the NFL Draft. Now, my mind has been rattling with how much "upside" Tavon Austin really has. I think we can get a rough estimate:

In his Senior Campaign, Austin posted:

Senior Year:

114 Receptions / 1289 Yards / 11.3YPC / 12TD
47 Rushes / 643 Rushing Yards / 7.1YPC / 3TD

Now, I fully expect to see Austin used in many dimensions as a Rookie (PR, WR, RB). Austin is likely going to replace the role Danny Amendola. Last year, Amendola averaged about 7 catches a game.

Assuming Austin gets the same mileage, this equals out to about 112 Catches on the year.

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Let's peg Austin in for about 100 Catches in the same role as Danny Amendola.

If you're unsure on HOW exactly Amendola was used this video against the 49ers (a tough defense) shows it quite well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-K4cdN8dML8

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Amendola averaged 10.6 YPC in this offense and Austin is MUCH more explosive than Amendola is. But for argument's sake and since we are determining a POTENTIAL floor, let's say as a Rookie he only matches Austin had an (11.3YPC in College). So far, this gives us:

100 Catches @ 10.6 YPC for 1,060 Yards

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It would be foolish for the Rams NOT to line up Austin at halfback especially looking at the production he had in college (7.1YPC Senior Year) and the lack of Running Backs in St. Louis.

Let's say he gets 35 Carries as a Rookie (about 2.1 designed rushes a game) and runs them for an average of about 5.5YPC.

40 Rushes @ 5.5YPC for 220 Yards.

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These are obviously rough numbers but I don't think it would be difficult for Tavon Austin to put-up a statline of:

100 Catches @ 10.6 YPC for 1,060 Yards (6 Touchdowns)

40 Rushes @ 5.5 YPC for 220 Yards (2 Touchdowns)

If we adjust the conservative YPC numbers and uptick his TDs, there is even more upside:

100 Catches @ 13 YPC for 1,300 Yards (8 Touchdowns)
40 Rushes @ 7 YPC for 280 Yards (4 Touchdowns)

In any type of PPR, he makes a strong case for the 1.01. Besides that, if you can get this guy as your WR3 in Redraft it could end up paying HUGE DIVIDENDS for you.

 
I keep hearing that if they use him as a slot receiver in the NFC West, opposing defenses are going to eat him for lunch, due to his size. I could be wrong, but it depends on how the Rams use him.

 
Austin is going to go down as the high-pick-reach-bust. Sure, he might make some good plays and be productive in the NFL, but you don't spend an 8th overall pick on a 5'8" 170 lb slot receiver. You take guys like Fitz that can do EVERYTHING 8th overall.

 
Austin is going to go down as the high-pick-reach-bust. Sure, he might make some good plays and be productive in the NFL, but you don't spend an 8th overall pick on a 5'8" 170 lb slot receiver. You take guys like Fitz that can do EVERYTHING 8th overall.
His highlights are amazing and fun to watch, but I agree with this.

His ascension this offseason has been ridiculous.

 
Austin is going to go down as the high-pick-reach-bust. Sure, he might make some good plays and be productive in the NFL, but you don't spend an 8th overall pick on a 5'8" 170 lb slot receiver. You take guys like Fitz that can do EVERYTHING 8th overall.
Absolutely..... guy is electrifying.... and will make plays...... but at pick 8, you better get a Fitz or Calvin type that can do everything.....

 
He's a rich mans Amendola and Amendola was pretty good when healthy.

As for his staying on the field I'd like to make two points.

1. Think about major fantasy injuries. How many are size related? When you think about it not much,especially the more severe stuff. ACL tears, knee injuries, lisfranc injuries are almost never caused because of a major hit but if anything from getting hit or landing awkwardly. If he had a concussion history I'd be concerned.

2. You have to catch him to hit. Daniel Jeremiah had tweeted a few weeks ago that 14 out of his 15 TD's he would have scored in two handed touch.

 
Austin is going to go down as the high-pick-reach-bust. Sure, he might make some good plays and be productive in the NFL, but you don't spend an 8th overall pick on a 5'8" 170 lb slot receiver. You take guys like Fitz that can do EVERYTHING 8th overall.
Absolutely..... guy is electrifying.... and will make plays...... but at pick 8, you better get a Fitz or Calvin type that can do everything.....
Except Fitz and Calvin can't do some of the things that Austin does. Neither of those guys has the possibility of 50 carries out of the backfield like Austin does. Neither of them add anything to the return game, while Austin at least gives you that ability.

I'd love to find shuttle numbers for Calvin/Fitz, but I think Austin has a little more raw quickness. What makes Calvin/Fitz so dominant is their combination of speed/agility with a big frame. Austin posted a better 40 time than Fitz or Calvin, but you'd expect him to when comparing body types. The thought is that Austin's speed/agility allows for mismatches in a different way than Calvin/Fitz.

But, to say that Calvin and Fitz can do everything that Austin can is wrong imo, just like it would be wrong to claim Austin can do everything those guys can do.

 
An extremely difficult prospect to gauge. When was the last time a 5'8" 175 pound receiver went in the top 10 picks? It might not have ever happened before.

The fact that he's so small poses questions about his usage and durability. He'll never win a jump ball in his life and doesn't seem like the kind of guy who will become a big presence in the red zone. He could struggle to stay healthy in a league where the defenders are so much bigger/stronger.

On the flipside, he absolutely has special qualities to help compensate for his weaknesses. A good rule of thumb for skill players is, "If you're going to be small, you'd better be fast." Austin is certainly fast. He could be the WR equivalent of what Spiller/Charles/CJ are to the RB position: an acutely undersized burner who compensates for his lack of power and bulk with otherworldly speed and quickness.

I can't rule out the possibility that he'll justify the top 10 pick, although the prospect of taking a player who has no historical equivalent is a bit frightening.

 
Who could be the most comparable talent out there? Desean Jackson? Of course, Jackson is 3 inches taller which helps him downfield.

Darren Sproles an inch or two shorter but almost 15 pounds heavier. He's short, but certainly not small. Not a very good comp.

Different positino, but Warrick Dunn was an inch or two taller and almost 15 pounds heavier. He held up reasonably well in a role that gave him far more touches than I'd ever expect from Austin. Even had a couple 300 touch seasons if I remember right.

 
I agree with the #8 pick wanting someone like Calvin, Fitz, etc.... But there were none of those guys this year. I think Austin is going to be a very good fantasy prospect IF you are in a PPR league.

I would think he'll be used like some of the other players mentioned here. Sproles, Bush, Cobb, Percy..... I realize some are them are rbs and Percy is a bigger build, etc... but I think Austin is going add a lot of value in receptions. He'll be the guy getting the short stuff and trying to use speed to make something happen. Rams have added some nice pieces this year and should be able to spread things out. Added two rookie wrs, Givens, Quick and adding J. Cook. Hopefully all that talent will open up some room for Austin to make things happen.

Just in case someone thinks I'm a homer being optimistic, I'm a Saints fan and really don't care about the Rams. I just think considering the lack of top flight talent at skill positions in this draft, I would take a shot with Austin in a PPR league.

You have to be high up in the draft to get him so who else out there is a lock to do better? I could see Lacy but now that GB drafted Franklin too, that has to hurt both of their values.

 
Austin reminds me of a mix of Wes Welker and Randall Cobb.

Amendola averaged over 9 targets a game last season, if Austin steps into that role I think he'd definitely be worth a top 5 pick in rookie drafts.

 
Who could be the most comparable talent out there? Desean Jackson? Of course, Jackson is 3 inches taller which helps him downfield.

Darren Sproles an inch or two shorter but almost 15 pounds heavier. He's short, but certainly not small. Not a very good comp.

Different positino, but Warrick Dunn was an inch or two taller and almost 15 pounds heavier. He held up reasonably well in a role that gave him far more touches than I'd ever expect from Austin. Even had a couple 300 touch seasons if I remember right.
What about a Carolina Steve Smith comparison? 5'9" & 179 lb

Now as an mature WR, he is more muscle and has a physical style.

Smith is not as electric as Austin, but he has amazing body control.

A small WR can contribute in the right scheme.

 
I think concussions might be a real concern for this kid. What do you think happens when Patric Willis or cam chancellor plows this kid that's the same size as a 9th grader. I don't think they can afford to give him a high amount of touches.

 
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Dont overrate his catch stats from WVU, that little screen sweep play they ran where geno taps it to him counts as a reception. According to secondroundstats.com, his 2012-13 touches add up to 86 catches and 100 rushes if you count those plays as rushes instead of receptions.

He's dynamic as heck for sure, but I dont think we'll see 100 plus catches from him. For starters, amendola averaged that many catches as the only guy in STL. For what its worth, the additions of Cook and Bailey (and hopefully growth of Quick), would not allow for such domination of targets.

 
I was thinking -- love child of Warrick Dunn and DeSean Jackson.

Size = NEVER MISSED A GAME IN HIGH SCHOOL OR COLLEGE = so who gives a ####?

69/713/3

+16/78/1

+ (returns) 28/400/2

 
Who could be the most comparable talent out there? Desean Jackson? Of course, Jackson is 3 inches taller which helps him downfield.

Darren Sproles an inch or two shorter but almost 15 pounds heavier. He's short, but certainly not small. Not a very good comp.

Different positino, but Warrick Dunn was an inch or two taller and almost 15 pounds heavier. He held up reasonably well in a role that gave him far more touches than I'd ever expect from Austin. Even had a couple 300 touch seasons if I remember right.
What about a Carolina Steve Smith comparison? 5'9" & 179 lb

Now as an mature WR, he is more muscle and has a physical style.

Smith is not as electric as Austin, but he has amazing body control.

A small WR can contribute in the right scheme.
Steve Smith was a deep threat in college and in NFL. Has amazing leaping ability. Tavon Austin is nothing close.

Austin is a faster Damaris Johnson/Andrew Hawkins.

 
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On second thought, Fred, that YPC looks a tad low for a guy who can go 60 yards in a blink.

How about 64 grabs, 930 yards and 8 TDs.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. :football:

 
Who could be the most comparable talent out there? Desean Jackson? Of course, Jackson is 3 inches taller which helps him downfield.

Darren Sproles an inch or two shorter but almost 15 pounds heavier. He's short, but certainly not small. Not a very good comp.

Different positino, but Warrick Dunn was an inch or two taller and almost 15 pounds heavier. He held up reasonably well in a role that gave him far more touches than I'd ever expect from Austin. Even had a couple 300 touch seasons if I remember right.
What about a Carolina Steve Smith comparison? 5'9" & 179 lb

Now as an mature WR, he is more muscle and has a physical style.

Smith is not as electric as Austin, but he has amazing body control.

A small WR can contribute in the right scheme.
Steve Smith was a deep threat in college and in NFL. Has amazing leaping ability. Tavon Austin is nothing close.

Austin is a faster Damaris Johnson/Andrew Hawkins.
A faster Andrew Hawkins with elite moves is pretty awesome.

 
Who could be the most comparable talent out there? Desean Jackson? Of course, Jackson is 3 inches taller which helps him downfield. Darren Sproles an inch or two shorter but almost 15 pounds heavier. He's short, but certainly not small. Not a very good comp. Different positino, but Warrick Dunn was an inch or two taller and almost 15 pounds heavier. He held up reasonably well in a role that gave him far more touches than I'd ever expect from Austin. Even had a couple 300 touch seasons if I remember right.
What about a Carolina Steve Smith comparison? 5'9" & 179 lbNow as an mature WR, he is more muscle and has a physical style.Smith is not as electric as Austin, but he has amazing body control. A small WR can contribute in the right scheme.
Steve Smith was a deep threat in college and in NFL. Has amazing leaping ability. Tavon Austin is nothing close. Austin is a faster Damaris Johnson/Andrew Hawkins.
A faster Andrew Hawkins with elite moves is pretty awesome.
Here are the most interesting comps Pro-Football-Reference spat out, along with their combine numbers: Ht Wt 40 20 yd Shuttle Vertical Tavon Austin 5’ 9” 174 4.28 4.01 32 Andrew Hawkins 5’ 8” 182 4.38 4.03 38 Damaris Johnson 5’ 7” 171 4.54 4.20 30 Jacoby Ford 5’ 9” 186 4.22 4.44 33.5 Travis Benjamin 5’ 10” 172 4.31 4.17 38 Cole Beasley 5’ 8” 175 4.50 4.40 38 Brandon Banks 5’ 7” 149 4.37 4.29 31 Hawkins does seem to be the closest, at least in change-of-direction ability (as measure by the 20 yard shuttle, of course). I haven't seen much of Austin in college. Does he move like Hawkins?ETA: I pasted that table using the "Paste from Word" button, but it didn't post the way it appeared in the editor.
 
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What is this BS about wanting a Fitz and Calvin type at 1.8...only problem is you DON'T get a Fitz or Calvin at 1.8. They both went much earlier and 6 pick in the top ten is allot.

You get a DHB Crabtree Ted Ginn typ player at that spot.

I'll take Austin upside over crabs today.

 
What is this BS about wanting a Fitz and Calvin type at 1.8...only problem is you DON'T get a Fitz or Calvin at 1.8. They both went much earlier and 6 pick in the top ten is allot.You get a DHB Crabtree Ted Ginn typ player at that spot.I'll take Austin upside over crabs today.
There are plenty of great wr that have gone later than 8. Don't just pick and choose the ones that fit your point. There have been a million guys like Austin over the years. They just don't make the impact that the bigger wrs do over the course of time. There's a reason why teams are always looking for that big wr. Those are the guys that become the greats
 
An extremely difficult prospect to gauge. When was the last time a 5'8" 175 pound receiver went in the top 10 picks? It might not have ever happened before. The fact that he's so small poses questions about his usage and durability. He'll never win a jump ball in his life and doesn't seem like the kind of guy who will become a big presence in the red zone. He could struggle to stay healthy in a league where the defenders are so much bigger/stronger. On the flipside, he absolutely has special qualities to help compensate for his weaknesses. A good rule of thumb for skill players is, "If you're going to be small, you'd better be fast." Austin is certainly fast. He could be the WR equivalent of what Spiller/Charles/CJ are to the RB position: an acutely undersized burner who compensates for his lack of power and bulk with otherworldly speed and quickness. I can't rule out the possibility that he'll justify the top 10 pick, although the prospect of taking a player who has no historical equivalent is a bit frightening.
As for similar height and weight and drafted in top 10, the only one I could come with off the top of my head was Desmond Howard. Checked NFL.com which listed him at 5.10 188. Generous. Howard was a valuable NFL player, but not much fantasy reward there.
 
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What is this BS about wanting a Fitz and Calvin type at 1.8...only problem is you DON'T get a Fitz or Calvin at 1.8. They both went much earlier and 6 pick in the top ten is allot.You get a DHB Crabtree Ted Ginn typ player at that spot.I'll take Austin upside over crabs today.
There are plenty of great wr that have gone later than 8. Don't just pick and choose the ones that fit your point.There have been a million guys like Austin over the years. They just don't make the impact that the bigger wrs do over the course of time. There's a reason why teams are always looking for that big wr. Those are the guys that become the greats
:no:

 
From all of the discussions I've read people are split into 2 camps. 1 camp thinks his size makes him too much of a risk. The other camp sees that he is a special talent and has tremendous upside.

THe kids never missed a game. Put me in camp 2.

 
What is this BS about wanting a Fitz and Calvin type at 1.8...only problem is you DON'T get a Fitz or Calvin at 1.8. They both went much earlier and 6 pick in the top ten is allot.You get a DHB Crabtree Ted Ginn typ player at that spot.I'll take Austin upside over crabs today.
There are plenty of great wr that have gone later than 8. Don't just pick and choose the ones that fit your point. There have been a million guys like Austin over the years. They just don't make the impact that the bigger wrs do over the course of time. There's a reason why teams are always looking for that big wr. Those are the guys that become the greats
What is this BS about wanting a Fitz and Calvin type at 1.8...only problem is you DON'T get a Fitz or Calvin at 1.8. They both went much earlier and 6 pick in the top ten is allot.You get a DHB Crabtree Ted Ginn typ player at that spot.I'll take Austin upside over crabs today.
There are plenty of great wr that have gone later than 8. Don't just pick and choose the ones that fit your point. There have been a million guys like Austin over the years. They just don't make the impact that the bigger wrs do over the course of time. There's a reason why teams are always looking for that big wr. Those are the guys that become the greats
Dude your so out of your element it isn't funny. I used fitz cj because they were referred to SEVERAL times in this thread,so I didn't pick and choose. Secondly you have no clue when you say there have been "millions" like Austin, please name a few.Please don't just run off at the mouth if you don't know what your really talking about.
 
Austin is going to go down as the high-pick-reach-bust. Sure, he might make some good plays and be productive in the NFL, but you don't spend an 8th overall pick on a 5'8" 170 lb slot receiver. You take guys like Fitz that can do EVERYTHING 8th overall.
It will be difficult to beat out Ted Ginn and Reggie Bush

 
EVHallofFamer said:
Billy Ball Thorton said:
What is this BS about wanting a Fitz and Calvin type at 1.8...only problem is you DON'T get a Fitz or Calvin at 1.8. They both went much earlier and 6 pick in the top ten is allot.You get a DHB Crabtree Ted Ginn typ player at that spot.I'll take Austin upside over crabs today.
There are plenty of great wr that have gone later than 8. Don't just pick and choose the ones that fit your point.There have been a million guys like Austin over the years. They just don't make the impact that the bigger wrs do over the course of time. There's a reason why teams are always looking for that big wr. Those are the guys that become the greats
Show me one like Austin. I think the closest would be Reggie Bush or Peter Warrick

 
Austin is going to go down as the high-pick-reach-bust. Sure, he might make some good plays and be productive in the NFL, but you don't spend an 8th overall pick on a 5'8" 170 lb slot receiver. You take guys like Fitz that can do EVERYTHING 8th overall.
But Fitz and Calvin went top 3, which is where he would have went if he had their height.

The NFL has also changed since even they were drafted. Factor all that in with a weak top of the draft and I think the pick is fine.

I also look it at is situationally for St. Louis in the Dome, his improvosational upside that he might offer Bradford and I think its a good solid pick.

As for my projection, I'll got 88 catches, 1200 yards recieveing, 5 TD, 450 yards rushing, 3 TD, 1 return TD

 
Anyone have thoughts where Tavon will rank in the top 200 of redraft? How may carries would he have to have at RB to carry RB/WR dual status?

 
Moving up in the draft AND picking him in the top ten?......Yeah...he might be the wave of the future.....but with that high of an investment, I'm looking for a tried and true skillset/bodytype/player. There's no shame in passing on him and him blowing up....but if he fizzles; then they got a lot of egg on their faces.

 
JackReacher said:
An extremely difficult prospect to gauge. When was the last time a 5'8" 175 pound receiver went in the top 10 picks? It might not have ever happened before. The fact that he's so small poses questions about his usage and durability. He'll never win a jump ball in his life and doesn't seem like the kind of guy who will become a big presence in the red zone. He could struggle to stay healthy in a league where the defenders are so much bigger/stronger. On the flipside, he absolutely has special qualities to help compensate for his weaknesses. A good rule of thumb for skill players is, "If you're going to be small, you'd better be fast." Austin is certainly fast. He could be the WR equivalent of what Spiller/Charles/CJ are to the RB position: an acutely undersized burner who compensates for his lack of power and bulk with otherworldly speed and quickness. I can't rule out the possibility that he'll justify the top 10 pick, although the prospect of taking a player who has no historical equivalent is a bit frightening.
As for similar height and weight and drafted in top 10, the only one I could come with off the top of my head was Desmond Howard. Checked NFL.com which listed him at 5.10 188. Generous. Howard was a valuable NFL player, but not much fantasy reward there.
Ted Ginn Jr. was picked at 1.09. At 5'11" and 180lb, with a 4.28 40 he doesn't seem far off in some respects, but he was (and is) a terrible WR who can't catch the ball or run routes.

 
Moving up in the draft AND picking him in the top ten?......Yeah...he might be the wave of the future.....but with that high of an investment, I'm looking for a tried and true skillset/bodytype/player. There's no shame in passing on him and him blowing up....but if he fizzles; then they got a lot of egg on their faces.
Yes there is.

 
I keep hearing that if they use him as a slot receiver in the NFC West, opposing defenses are going to eat him for lunch, due to his size. I could be wrong, but it depends on how the Rams use him.
Nice idea in theory. Tavon Austin is one of the five fastest players in the league, but he's quicker than he is fast. I don't think he has an equal in lateral movement. The rams aren't going to just line him up. Teams will have to account for him, I'd be shocked if wasn't put in motion.

Tavon Austin doesn't have a comparison that really fits. I see Ted Ginn, but they couldn't be in different as far as what they do. Ginn could return kicks, and run a 9 route. Catching optional. Tavon Austin can do the things that Ginn could, but Ginn cannot do the things Austin can. Ginn didn't have the quickness in his agility that Austin has.

Tavon Austin isn't a guy who you'd line up outside to run a 9 route all game. Something that gets lost because of his size/speed/quickness is that he idolizes Wes Welker and is constantly refining his route running. He wants to be great. Saying that, he'll take his bumps in the slot, but he's going to win his fair share.

Elite slot skills/3rd down back/Punt Returner/Kick returner/9 route capable.

The closest comparison isn't a player, but a mold of player. The NFL has evolved into a space game. Percy Harvin, Randall Cobb, and Darren Sproles are the epitome of the space player. None will ever lead the league in receptions, receiving yards or TD's, but there accumulative yardage from other facets of the game will more than make up for it. Tavon Austin is a new breed in the new space game that the NFL has become. He's also the ultimate movable chess piece.

And to those that question his size, remember that he's 5 pounds lighter than DeSean Jackson, but two inches shorter. He's not thin, he's built well. He's also played running back and receiver and never missed as much as a practice game at High School or at West Virginia.

 
Moving up in the draft AND picking him in the top ten?......Yeah...he might be the wave of the future.....but with that high of an investment, I'm looking for a tried and true skillset/bodytype/player. There's no shame in passing on him and him blowing up....but if he fizzles; then they got a lot of egg on their faces.
I'd ask who in this draft has that tried and true combination of Skillset/bodytype that doesn't also come with massive question marks? There isn't one in this draft.It is somewhat bold to go all in on him, but if you're seeing where this game is headed it's not really a stretch. Especially when the other options have more flaws in there game.I'll take the guy that's faster than DeSean Jackson and quicker than CJ Spiller.

 
I know it has been mentioned in previous threads but Eric Metcalf is the closest match IMO. Metcalf was 5-10 and 188. He was selected in the 1st round by the Browns in 1998. He has a triple threat producing as a runner, receiver and returner.

I think more than fast, which Austin is, he has an extreme quick twitch skills, allowing him to change direction and not loose any speed. I understand the concern about his size but I am betting there is a big role for these type players in today's NFL. Size hasn't been an obstacle for Darren Sproles, and I do not think it will be for Austin.

 
Sproles is actually pretty heavy for his height. About the same height/weight ratio as Ray Rice or Brian Westbrook. He is built like a typical RB. Just happens to be 3-4 inches shorter than usual.

On the other hand, Austin has a typical speed WR height/weight ratio. In terms of height/weight ratio, he's like a 5'8" version of AJ Green or a slightly thinner Jeremy Maclin. Probably not a guy you want getting whacked 15 times per game, but we'll see.

 
Sproles is actually pretty heavy for his height. About the same height/weight ratio as Ray Rice or Brian Westbrook. He is built like a typical RB. Just happens to be 3-4 inches shorter than usual.

On the other hand, Austin has a typical speed WR height/weight ratio. In terms of height/weight ratio, he's like a 5'8" version of AJ Green or a slightly thinner Jeremy Maclin. Probably not a guy you want getting whacked 15 times per game, but we'll see.
Yes, but the new non-violent flag football rules being implemented is very much in favor of the offense and mitigates some of the advantage of big, strong DBs and certainly favors the quick and fast WRs.

 
Sproles is actually pretty heavy for his height. About the same height/weight ratio as Ray Rice or Brian Westbrook. He is built like a typical RB. Just happens to be 3-4 inches shorter than usual.

On the other hand, Austin has a typical speed WR height/weight ratio. In terms of height/weight ratio, he's like a 5'8" version of AJ Green or a slightly thinner Jeremy Maclin. Probably not a guy you want getting whacked 15 times per game, but we'll see.
Yes, but the new non-violent flag football rules being implemented is very much in favor of the offense and mitigates some of the advantage of big, strong DBs and certainly favors the quick and fast WRs.
true but that doesnt mean he isnt going to get hit.

I think he is going to be an awesome player and do some special stuff but you really have to worry about the amount of touches at his current weight.

 

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