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The Russia Ukraine Conflict Thread (1 Viewer)

During my time in Europe, there was 3 countries’ armies we evaluated as “extremely poor.” Belarus was one of those (I won’t name the other 2). Now they’re joining Russia against Ukraine…it will be the combat equivalent of a mosh pit.
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https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1498279646529478656?s=20&t=F2mTweKbNtWR3TkK4MhQDw

:lol:

If you want to read/hear some negative talk about the Russian army, follow this dude. He's been all over CNN, and he has been dunking on them for days. 

 
I had not heard about this (I recommend registering with Reuters-no charge)

Under sanctions, companies leasing airplanes to Russia would be required to cancel those leases. Should be said: Easier said than done. Who's gonna go get those planes back? But check this out:

Russian companies have 980 passenger jets in service, of which 777 are leased, according to analytics firm Cirium. Of these, two-thirds, or 515 jets, with an estimated market value of about $10 billion, are rented from foreign firms in the mainly Ireland-based industry.
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So much for the Russian cheerleaders bragging about the war chest that would tide Russia over in case of sanctions:

From Guardian Live Blog 

US administration officials have been briefing this morning about the decision to block dollar assets of Russia’s Central Bank and its Direct Investment Fund this morning, before markets opened, the Guardian’s Julian Borger writes.

One senior administration official said:

We wanted to put these actions in place before our markets open because what we learned over the course of the weekend from our allies and partners was the Russian Central Bank was attempting to move assets and there would be a great deal of asset flight starting on Monday morning from institutions around the world. So we’re taking these actions in a way that they will be effective immediately.

The official said about the planning behind these measures, which date back to the much more limited US sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014:

When we took those actions, [the Russians] decided that they were going to try and build a war chest to try and defend against the actions that we may take, if they were to take further actions in Ukraine or elsewhere in the world. We knew that this existed and we knew that ultimately, one of the things that we would need to do to ensure that our sanctions would be effective is at some point to go after that war chest and that’s exactly what we’ve done today.
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From same blog:

Russia has closed its airspace to 36 countries, Russian state news agency Tass reports.

Among those countries barred from using Russian airspace are the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Canada.
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To be expected

 
cap'n grunge said:
Not sure who this is. Coup attempt in Belarus? Watch the video in link.

@Tsihanouskaya: Lukashenka committed treason – he made our country a participant in the invasion of Ukraine. So I declared myself as the national leader of Belarus to protect the sovereignty & independence of our country, represent it in security negotiations & crisis management in the region. https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1497583706038484996/video/1
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She is the woman who may have actually won the election there in 2020.  It was a sham, their current "president" is just another oppressive dictator.  He continues to just claim he wins enough in the first round of their 2 round system. With their elections having not been recognized as legitimate by the international community in quite some time.  Tsihanouskaya lives in exile now I believe.  This was why there were major protests there after that election and have had quite a few of them over their involvement now

 
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cap'n grunge said:
https://twitter.com/ByRakeshSimha/status/1498064216586321922/video/1

Any truth to Tulsi Gabbard's Ukraine criticisms here? Or is she spinning to support Russia?
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Ukraine shuts TV channels owned by Russia-friendly tycoon

The most effective propaganda has an element of truth. Gabbard's comments are missing context, as Russia invaded Ukraine a year after the stations were shutdown. 

>>"Ukraine strongly supports freedom of speech,” Zelenskiy tweeted. “Not propaganda financed by the aggressor country that undermines Ukraine on its way to the EU and EuroAtlantic integration. Fight for independence is fight in the information war for truth and European values.”

Ukraine has been locked in a tug of war with Russia, which annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and cast its support behind pro-Moscow insurgents in eastern Ukraine. The conflict, now in its seventh year, has killed more than 14,000 people and devastated Ukraine's industrial heartland.

The now-blocked 112 Ukraine, NewsOne and ZIK channels belong to businessman Viktor Medvedchuk. He has friendly personal ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is the godfather of Medvedchuk's daughter. Medvedchuk supports the Opposition Platform for Life, a political party that is popular in Ukraine's southeast and holds a minority in the Ukrainian parliament.

Zelenskiy spokeswoman Iuliia Mendel said that Medvedchuk's media assets have been blocked for reasons of national security because they have served as “one of the instruments of war against Ukraine.” Mendel said on Facebook that authorities confirmed the assets were bankrolled by Russia.<<

 
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Most everyone on fox is trying to dunk on the Biden administration - and this Ukraine-Russia thing at this point is looking like a win for the administration

 
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the moops said:
So let's say Ukraine is not a democracy and Zelenskyy has done whatever she says he has done. It still stands to reason that we should have an issue with Russia going around invading countries, right? 
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I would think so.  I thought Ukraine was denied NATO due to corruption so there may be real concerns with Ukraine.

 
cap'n grunge said:
https://twitter.com/ByRakeshSimha/status/1498064216586321922/video/1

Any truth to Tulsi Gabbard's Ukraine criticisms here? Or is she spinning to support Russia?
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I DO remember them shutting down TV networks a few years back.  They were all Russian propaganda channels and considering the world's demand for them to clean the country up from the puppet regime, those seem to fall within that request.  So, I'd guess what she's saying is technically true but incredibly misleading as presented without proper context.  Of course, NONE of what she's talking about has any bearing on what's going on there today.  It's deflection for whatever reason (If I had to guess, what you're seeing with her is the beginnings in her effort to migrate to the extreme right after being rejected by the Dems).

 
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The Dude said:
Most everyone on fox is trying to dunk on the Biden administration - and this Ukraine-Russia thing at this point is looking like a win for the administration
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I think there is plenty of criticism for all three networks. I saw Joe Scarborough secure a TV interview with one of Zelensky's main guy, and he asked him this rambling, leading question that was just....silly.

Especially if you catch BBC or Sky News. Really puts it in perspective.

 
the moops said:
So let's say Ukraine is not a democracy and Zelenskyy has done whatever she says he has done. It still stands to reason that we should have an issue with Russia going around invading countries, right? 
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World War II started because Hitler invaded Poland. Poland was an independent country but not a democracy. 

 
SoBeDad said:
The now-blocked 112 Ukraine, NewsOne and ZIK channels belong to businessman Viktor Medvedchuk.
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I have nothing to say about Gabbard, but everyone KNOWS that if Putin kills Zelensky, this is most likely the new 'president' that gets installed.

Great post, and a good example of how propaganda gets washed and sent forward.

 
massraider said:
I have nothing to say about Gabbard, but everyone KNOWS that if Putin kills Zelensky, this is most likely the new 'president' that gets installed.

Great post, and a good example of how propaganda gets washed and sent forward.
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At this point any guy that the Russians install will have the popularity of Verduk Quisling. 

 
The Dude said:
Most everyone on fox is trying to dunk on the Biden administration - and this Ukraine-Russia thing at this point is looking like a win for the administration
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Yeah, I don't know about that.  Seems more like a "Go Team" cheerleading opinion more than anything.  If this is anything, it is a win (in a protest sense) for the rest of the non-Russian-and-Belarus world, not the administration.

I don't think the Biden administration did anything proactive that would warrant "a win".  They got caught by surprise like everyone else.   But they are reacting appropriately now in coordination with the rest of the world.

 
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BladeRunner said:
Yeah, I don't know about that.  Seems more like a "Go Team" cheerleading opinion more than anything.  If this is anything, it is a win (in a protest sense) for the rest of the non-Russian-and-Belarus world, not the administration.

I don't think the Biden administration did anything proactive that would warrant "a win".  They got caught by surprise like everyone else.   But they are reacting appropriately now in coordination with the rest of the world.
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Not sure there was much they could do proactively that Russia wouldn't have taken as a sign of aggression.

I think they are leading in that coordination - even when that leading is to have other countries rise up 

But we'll see

 
SoBeDad said:
Ukraine shuts TV channels owned by Russia-friendly tycoon

The most effective propaganda has an element of truth. Gabbard's comments are missing context, as Russia invaded Ukraine a year after the stations were shutdown. 

>>"Ukraine strongly supports freedom of speech,” Zelenskiy tweeted. “Not propaganda financed by the aggressor country that undermines Ukraine on its way to the EU and EuroAtlantic integration. Fight for independence is fight in the information war for truth and European values.”

Ukraine has been locked in a tug of war with Russia, which annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and cast its support behind pro-Moscow insurgents in eastern Ukraine. The conflict, now in its seventh year, has killed more than 14,000 people and devastated Ukraine's industrial heartland.

The now-blocked 112 Ukraine, NewsOne and ZIK channels belong to businessman Viktor Medvedchuk. He has friendly personal ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is the godfather of Medvedchuk's daughter. Medvedchuk supports the Opposition Platform for Life, a political party that is popular in Ukraine's southeast and holds a minority in the Ukrainian parliament.

Zelenskiy spokeswoman Iuliia Mendel said that Medvedchuk's media assets have been blocked for reasons of national security because they have served as “one of the instruments of war against Ukraine.” Mendel said on Facebook that authorities confirmed the assets were bankrolled by Russia.<<
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I don't have a link to back this up and I'm far from an expert here, but I suspect the bolded above is true.  I know that the previous administration was full of corruption.  Zelenskyy was elected on an anti-corruption platform.  If he held the previous administration accountable, that would explain locking them up.  

Ukraine is a country that has been dealing with Russian's effing around with their internal politics for probably hundreds of years, not just 2014-now... including bribery, propaganda, etc.

 
BladeRunner said:
Yeah, I don't know about that.  Seems more like a "Go Team" cheerleading opinion more than anything.  If this is anything, it is a win (in a protest sense) for the rest of the non-Russian-and-Belarus world, not the administration.

I don't think the Biden administration did anything proactive that would warrant "a win".  They got caught by surprise like everyone else.   But they are reacting appropriately now in coordination with the rest of the world.
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They didn’t get caught by surprise, they were openly releasing information on what Russia was doing in the weeks leading up to the invasion to prepare the world.  It’s a small reasons for why there has been such a good world coordinated response.

 
Sammy3469 said:
They didn’t get caught by surprise, they were openly releasing information on what Russia was doing in the weeks leading up to the invasion to prepare the world.  It’s a small reasons for why there has been such a good world coordinated response.
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Great point

 
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I think today's snap action on Russia's Central Bank closes some (all?) of the loophole at the bottom of this:

Big problem, though: The central bank holds a substantial amount of those foreign exchange reserves — perhaps $300 billion out of the total — in foreign banks, mostly in the West. If the U.S. and Europe freeze those assets, Russia’s central bank won’t be able to use them to stop the ruble’s slide. Knowing that, currency traders will know that it’ll be that much easier to “break” the ruble — short-selling rubles in order to run the central bank out of reserves, so the currency plunges and the traders make a profit. This might become a self-fulfilling prophecy — speculators think the ruble is vulnerable to attack, so they attack it.

And the really ominous thing here is that there’s just not that much the Central Bank of Russia can do about this. We’ve become used to thinking of central banks as these all-powerful money printers, but the Central Bank of Russia can only print rubles. And printing rubles doesn’t help stabilize the currency — in fact, it devalues it further. So there will be no “money printer go brrr” memes for Russia. If the ruble crashes and the central bank runs out of accessible forex reserves, it’s game over. The Russian economy will be in ruins, Russians will start using black markets to buy stuff, and everyone in Russia will be really really mad. Furthermore, Russian defense manufacturers will be basically unable to buy needed components and materials overseas, which will severely hamper the war effort in Ukraine.

But here’s the thing — this isn’t really the kind of thing you can do in half measures. Either the Central Bank of Russia depletes its reserves or it doesn’t. And initial reports suggest that like SWIFT cutoff, the central bank asset freeze will be initially done in a surgical, limited way, as a threat and a proof of concept. But the problem with this is that if the Central Bank of Russia still has some channels with which to withdraw the $300 billion or so of reserves it keeps overseas, it will do so — and then this particular financial doomsday weapon will be neutralized.
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Sammy3469 said:
They didn’t get caught by surprise, they were openly releasing information on what Russia was doing in the weeks leading up to the invasion to prepare the world.  It’s a small reasons for why there has been such a good world coordinated response.
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This is my take, too.  It seems to me that the Biden administration has handled the Ukraine situation very well so far.  I can't think of much that I would ask them to do differently if we had it to do over again.  For example, it's not Biden's fault that China and most of Europe had their collective heads in the sand, but it does seem to be at least partly to Biden's credit that everyone is more or less on the same page now.

This time last week, we were talking about Taiwan is next.  Does anybody think that's so obviously true now?  If China had questions, they got their answer from all the European countries who are suddenly taking their defense responsibilities seriously.

This is very, very early, but there are parallels here to the Kennedy administration, that had the Bay of Pigs (Afghanistan) rapidly followed by the Cuban missile crisis (Ukraine).

 
IvanKaramazov said:
This is my take, too.  It seems to me that the Biden administration has handled the Ukraine situation very well so far.  I can't think of much that I would ask them to do differently if we had it to do over again.  For example, it's not Biden's fault that China and most of Europe had their collective heads in the sand, but it does seem to be at least partly to Biden's credit that everyone is more or less on the same page now.

This time last week, we were talking about Taiwan is next.  Does anybody think that's so obviously true now?  If China had questions, they got their answer from all the European countries who are suddenly taking their defense responsibilities seriously.

This is very, very early, but there are parallels here to the Kennedy administration, that had the Bay of Pigs (Afghanistan) rapidly followed by the Cuban missile crisis (Ukraine).
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And the sanctions that were dismissed a few days ago as weak look like they're chock full of teeth as well.

The last couple decades are open to all kinds of MMQBing IMO (all Presidents), but the last few weeks have been outstanding overall IMO.

 
Things Putin has managed to accomplish or things that have backfired so far...

  • He wanted to push back NATO away from the Russia borders, well now he has more of them assembling along the Eastern European Border than ever before.
  • Managed to get German to finally spend 2% of their GDP on military, several Presidents had urged them to do including Obama and Bush 
  • Managed to unite Europe and the EU in ways we have not seen previously. 
  • Ukraine has now put in their application to join the EU and should likely receive membership or at least become a candidate which is going to push Ukraine further to the West which is the opposite of what Putin wants. 
-And now it seems he is going to have to use large weapons. Those thermobarbaric weapons, carpet bomb the major cities and turn them into another Aleppo. That's going to unite Ukraine even further. 

I'm sure many of you have a list of other things not going well for Putin and now many people speaking out on TV around the World questioning the man's sanity. 

 
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massraider said:
Berdyandsk is the largest occupied city by the Russians.  

Though occupied, the locals are in the streets, yelling at the invaders:

Putin is a d***head 

#Berdyansk to see various protests. 
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They're brave, standing with no weapons, even though there might be only 25 Russian soldiers standing there, they are fully armed and could easily mow down a lot of folks there. 

I'm moved by the way the Ukraine people are doing things. I saw where they were just walking along quietly surrounding tanks as they were rolling into the country.

When Russian soldiers pop up ot of these tanks, it's like looking into a mirror for many of them, it's not like in the Middle East or other far away places, these folks look like their Grandparents. It must be hard mentally for the soldiers and I would think their heart isn't in this. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
This is my take, too.  It seems to me that the Biden administration has handled the Ukraine situation very well so far.  I can't think of much that I would ask them to do differently if we had it to do over again.  For example, it's not Biden's fault that China and most of Europe had their collective heads in the sand, but it does seem to be at least partly to Biden's credit that everyone is more or less on the same page now.

This time last week, we were talking about Taiwan is next.  Does anybody think that's so obviously true now?  If China had questions, they got their answer from all the European countries who are suddenly taking their defense responsibilities seriously.

This is very, very early, but there are parallels here to the Kennedy administration, that had the Bay of Pigs (Afghanistan) rapidly followed by the Cuban missile crisis (Ukraine).
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You are obviously allowed to speak your opinions but there has been a large outcry on both sides of poor handling from the White House and I think having a commercial break in even though this is the political forum, mostly we've been sharing information or talking about just the immediate safety of Ukraine, little early to be trying to prop Biden up. 

-You feel you wouldn't have done a damn thing different, good for you and I promise many folks will disagree with you but on these boards you'll find an audience for this POV. 

I think Left/Right cheerleading right now is unwelcome but maybe I'm on the island again. 

 
"Oil depot burns after artillery shelling in Okhtyrka, Sumy Oblast.

Mayor Pavlo Kuzmenko reported that Russian occupiers dropped a vacuum bomb. This type of weapon is known as the most deadly non-nuclear bomb, producing high-temperature explosions."

This is one of the thermobaric missiles. Many reports about it during last couple days and the fatal impact it has by creating a vacuum and sucking the air out your lungs.

Most deadly non-nuclear bomb allegedly used

 
BladeRunner said:
Yeah, I don't know about that.  Seems more like a "Go Team" cheerleading opinion more than anything.  If this is anything, it is a win (in a protest sense) for the rest of the non-Russian-and-Belarus world, not the administration.

I don't think the Biden administration did anything proactive that would warrant "a win".  They got caught by surprise like everyone else.   But they are reacting appropriately now in coordination with the rest of the world.
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I feel like Macron has taken the leadership position for the West and I'm fine with that for now. He sounds polished and on point to me. I don't like listening to Biden speak and I don't think he is the right guy to speak to Putin right now.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
You are obviously allowed to speak your opinions but there has been a large outcry on both sides of poor handling from the White House and I think having a commercial break in even though this is the political forum, mostly we've been sharing information or talking about just the immediate safety of Ukraine, little early to be trying to prop Biden up. 

-You feel you wouldn't have done a damn thing different, good for you and I promise many folks will disagree with you but on these boards you'll find an audience for this POV. 

I think Left/Right cheerleading right now is unwelcome but maybe I'm on the island again. 
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Posters will always have their toilet seat quarterbacking for events like this without offering their own ideas of what they would have done better (that's a general comment not directed at you) - and making those claims without qualified counsel or intel.

 
The Commish said:
I DO remember them shutting down TV networks a few years back.  They were all Russian propaganda channels and considering the world's demand for them to clean the country up from the puppet regime, those seem to fall within that request.  So, I'd guess what she's saying is technically true but incredibly misleading as presented without proper context.  Of course, NONE of what she's talking about has any bearing on what's going on there today.  It's deflection for whatever reason (If I had to guess, what you're seeing with her is the beginnings in her effort to migrate to the extreme right after being rejected by the Dems).
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The TV channels all belong to Medvedchuk.  Who has been a Russian appologist, Putin’s possible appointee should Russia win out.

Not sure what Gabbard is doing here.

 
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