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I wasn't really talking about the speed at which it will happen (although I suspect it will be of the "slowly, then all at once" variety). The part I was agreeing with was the notion that what will ultimately kill Twitter won't be people leaving because they're upset at Elon, it will be if people are leaving because other people are leaving and they no longer get the value they once did out of the network.
Totally agree. Twitter may end up just fine. But "slowly, then fast" (Hemingway) is absolutely in in play here.

Musk needs to log off Twitter and just tend to the business instead of being the main character. He's the story right now, which is kind of absurd except that he's feeding it.
A chief executive is unable to curb his self-destructive impulses and log off Twitter, you say? 🤔
Joe wouldn't make that mistake.
Well, now that he has foresworn the mega-billions in profits generated by the Politics Forum, we will sadly never get to find out

(Never realized that line was from Hemingway. Apparently the exact quote is "Gradually, then suddenly." As someone who owns property in South Florida, I think about that concept often, since I assume that's how climate change will affect Miami's real-estate prices)
Chicago will be the new Miami.
 
Elon Musk@elonmusk
Twitter has had a massive drop in revenue, due to [Musk's political opinions deleted].

Extremely messed up! [more politics deleted]
Nothing is his fault, you understand?

I liked the argument @IvanKaramazov made above -- that Musk thinks so big it's hard to imagine where he might take Twitter. That's a good counter argument to my position.

Which is... that he's flailing, has no understanding at all of the public or advertisers, or even how the world works when your audience is mass market and doesn't hang on your every word as Gospel.

I mean, how far into 4D Chess can we be if he didn't anticipate that a portion of the public and most advertisers might not care for him or his ideas or his vision for Twitter in advance -- and might react accordingly? I mean, that probably should have been item #1 on his list, no?
Can’t it be both though? Like @Joe Bryant I think he has a vision where he wants to take Twitter that he thinks will ultimately give him and his investor the rate of return he wants (ask any VC and they’ll say the market is there for an easy to use Fintech product).

Like you I do think he’s so insulated that he doesn’t understand core personal privacy issues on social media and why there is backlash to his immediate first steps.

I do question who will work there though. As someone noted previously stock options matter and when you’ve set the valuation at 45 billion with an exit of at least 2-4 years. For, most of these folks you can work the same crazy hours for a potential 10-100x bagger than a 2-4x bagger.
 
Can’t it be both though?
Sure, I think there's an argument there for sure.

But even if so, he paid $44B and after this initial dust settles the company is going to be worth... what? $20B? $5B? He'll have to double the value, or maybe even double it twice, to get back to that.
 
Sociopathy helps too.

Sociopathy: "Antisocial personality disorder, sometimes called sociopathy, is a mental disorder in which a person consistently shows no regard for right and wrong and ignores the rights and feelings of others."

Certainly, some degree of strong behavior and trying to get top performance out of people on the team is common trait among leaders. Both in business and sports and other areas. But I don't think pushing that to the level of a sociopath is helpful at all. That usually (always?) ends poorly in my opinion.
 
Sure, I think there's an argument there for sure.

But even if so, he paid $44B and after this initial dust settles the company is going to be worth... what? $20B? $5B? He'll have to double the value, or maybe even double it twice, to get back to that.

I think that's an interesting angle too: I have no idea of his goals, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the financial "success" part of it was not a primary focus. Obviously, it has to be financially viable. But he strikes me as a guy who's more interested in making a dent and doing big things than he is leading the financial scoreboard game.

Again, I have NO idea and I'm even hesitant to speculate, but I always thought he looked at Tesla or Space X as way more doing something significant vs a money making venture.
 
Can’t it be both though?
Sure, I think there's an argument there for sure.

But even if so, he paid $44B and after this initial dust settles the company is going to be worth... what? $20B? $5B? He'll have to double the value, or maybe even double it twice, to get back to that.
Sure, he has to drive value, but it doesn't have to be overnight.

I think it's important for everyone in here who keeps laughing about the $44B price tag to remember that virtually every major holder of large tech firms have lost $10s of billions this year...it's not just Elon with Twitter. Yes, he overpaid in April when he valued the company at $44B. But so did every single person who held or bought Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Snap, Nvidia, etc... on and on and on.
So yeah, maybe Twitter's valuation now is $20B...that's not so different from Meta (Facebook) which was worth over $1 Trillion not so long ago. Current market cap for that company is now just $240B. There are countless examples of this.
 
block Lou Paskalis
He's a Free Speech Absolutist for himself, I guess?

Doesn't this give any of you pause?

He was FORCED into going through with the deal by the courts. He wanted to back out and they enforced the contract.

He talks a big game about free speech, but then when an industry leader makes perfectly reasonable points, he blocks him and then tries to destroy the evidence.

Nothing here suggests he has any idea what he's doing IMO. In fact he seems intent on driving the value of Twitter into the ground.

And as far as repurposing the platform to Fintech or some other thing... why not just start that business instead of paying $44B for a service that doesn't do what you need it to do?
 
block Lou Paskalis
He's a Free Speech Absolutist for himself, I guess?

Doesn't this give any of you pause?

He was FORCED into going through with the deal by the courts. He wanted to back out and they enforced the contract.

He talks a big game about free speech, but then when an industry leader makes perfectly reasonable points, he blocks him and then tries to destroy the evidence.

Nothing here suggests he has any idea what he's doing IMO. In fact he seems intent on driving the value of Twitter into the ground.

And as far as repurposing the platform to Fintech or some other thing... why not just start that business instead of paying $44B for a service that doesn't do what you need it to do?
I'm sure he wishes he could. As you said, he was forced into the purchase. Back in March, plenty of folks (Elon included) reasonably though Twitter had a store of untapped value at $44B.
I do think it it's ironic though that as we all assume the platform is cratering they probably have more active daily users than they've ever had in Twitter's history.
 
From the Financial Times



Nov 1 (Reuters) - Banks that lent $12.7 billion to Elon Musk for his $44 billion Twitter takeover will hold the debt until early next year as they wait for the billionaire to unveil a clearer business plan they can market to investors, the Financial Times reported.

The group of lenders, led by Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Bank of America (BAC.N) and Barclays (BARC.L), have conceded they will be stuck holding the debt on their books for months or even longer and will probably end up incurring huge losses on the financing package, according to the report published Tuesday, citing sources.
 
I'm sure he wishes he could. As you said, he was forced into the purchase.
Yeah, OK. I guess it might make sense as a pivot once you realize you're kind of stuck.

But, again, that's not 4D chess or some sort of grand vision. It's scrambling to fix your earlier mistake.
 
Sociopathy helps too.

Sociopathy: "Antisocial personality disorder, sometimes called sociopathy, is a mental disorder in which a person consistently shows no regard for right and wrong and ignores the rights and feelings of others."

Certainly, some degree of strong behavior and trying to get top performance out of people on the team is common trait among leaders. Both in business and sports and other areas. But I don't think pushing that to the level of a sociopath is helpful at all. That usually (always?) ends poorly in my opinion.
I was focusing more on the feelings of others aspect. But yeah right and wrong fits in as well. Union busting, like Bezos and Musk are known for…is basically a manifestation of this, no? I mean you are literally ignoring the thoughts and feelings of your workers
 
Can’t it be both though?
Sure, I think there's an argument there for sure.

But even if so, he paid $44B and after this initial dust settles the company is going to be worth... what? $20B? $5B? He'll have to double the value, or maybe even double it twice, to get back to that.
Sure, he has to drive value, but it doesn't have to be overnight.

I think it's important for everyone in here who keeps laughing about the $44B price tag to remember that virtually every major holder of large tech firms have lost $10s of billions this year...it's not just Elon with Twitter. Yes, he overpaid in April when he valued the company at $44B. But so did every single person who held or bought Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Snap, Nvidia, etc... on and on and on.
So yeah, maybe Twitter's valuation now is $20B...that's not so different from Meta (Facebook) which was worth over $1 Trillion not so long ago. Current market cap for that company is now just $240B. There are countless examples of this.
Was anyone else looking to buy or take over Twitter? He royally hosed himself here got some bad timing. That does happen to everyone.

There is a large soap opera factor with all this for sure. A loudmouth buying Twitter and we all watch it play out on Twitter among other places is pretty great.

Twitter could close shop tomorrow, it wouldn’t impact many lives in the long run and Elon‘s certainly not.

Most likely it will just continue to be what it is now IMO.
 
Can’t it be both though?
Sure, I think there's an argument there for sure.

But even if so, he paid $44B and after this initial dust settles the company is going to be worth... what? $20B? $5B? He'll have to double the value, or maybe even double it twice, to get back to that.
Sure, he has to drive value, but it doesn't have to be overnight.

I think it's important for everyone in here who keeps laughing about the $44B price tag to remember that virtually every major holder of large tech firms have lost $10s of billions this year...it's not just Elon with Twitter. Yes, he overpaid in April when he valued the company at $44B. But so did every single person who held or bought Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Snap, Nvidia, etc... on and on and on.
So yeah, maybe Twitter's valuation now is $20B...that's not so different from Meta (Facebook) which was worth over $1 Trillion not so long ago. Current market cap for that company is now just $240B. There are countless examples of this.
Was anyone else looking to buy or take over Twitter? He royally hosed himself here got some bad timing. That does happen to everyone.

There is a large soap opera factor with all this for sure. A loudmouth buying Twitter and we all watch it play out on Twitter among other places is pretty great.

Twitter could close shop tomorrow, it wouldn’t impact many lives in the long run and Elon‘s certainly not.

Most likely it will just continue to be what it is now IMO.
There were no active buyers as a full acquisition, no. But, people were buying it everyday: pension funds, individuals, hedge fund managers, etc. And again, the immediate reaction by many prominent Twitter holders was the $44B was a low-ball offer.
It was absolutely horrible timing for Elon to do this. I don't think anyone will shed any tears for him (I certainly don't, he can afford it). But, I think it's too simplistic to simply say he effed this up by buying at $44B valuation. By that metric, anyone who bought any portion of any tech company during Q1 2022 effed up in the same way.
 
Here was a response from a senior brand marketer to Elon’s claims that brands are giving into woke activists

Giant man baby
Lots of conflicting information out there. I'd stick with people who actually still work there:

I’d actually say we can trust those with their heads on the chopping block even less than those on the outside. Remember the Iraqi for foreign minister?
 
I respectfully disagree.

What do you disagree with?

I find it interesting folks are surprised guys like Musk and Bezos demand a lot of production and emphasize speed.

Of course there's more to running a business than speed. One has to have people who are excited to be doing the work and engaged and valued and a zillion other things that make up culture.

But speed is a huge part success. In both innovating and executing.

And Bezos and Musk have a long successful track record there.

Whether Musk will be able to also succeed in a different business like Twitter is a super interesting story. I don't know if he will. Which is what makes it interesting to me.
I thought I laid it out clearly: speed only works if you have a winning strategy.

Musk has shown this in the past many times. He never hits his timelines. It's his strategies (mostly in how he solves engineering challenges) that have led to his success. Which is why I'm not counting him out. But all the speed in the world ain't doing anything without an effective strategy. And it burns out staff that have other opportunities.

So far his Twitter strategy is a dud. All the speed in the world won't help a company that is alienating its main revenue stream. He knows that and has tried correcting course, but he can't help himself in being a tad messianic (vacillating from "free speech!" to "we're doing better at content moderation!"
 
Here was a response from a senior brand marketer to Elon’s claims that brands are giving into woke activists

Giant man baby
Lots of conflicting information out there. I'd stick with people who actually still work there:


The concern is what the moderation policy will be, not what it is now.
 
Can’t it be both though?
Sure, I think there's an argument there for sure.

But even if so, he paid $44B and after this initial dust settles the company is going to be worth... what? $20B? $5B? He'll have to double the value, or maybe even double it twice, to get back to that.
Sure, he has to drive value, but it doesn't have to be overnight.

I think it's important for everyone in here who keeps laughing about the $44B price tag to remember that virtually every major holder of large tech firms have lost $10s of billions this year...it's not just Elon with Twitter. Yes, he overpaid in April when he valued the company at $44B. But so did every single person who held or bought Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Snap, Nvidia, etc... on and on and on.
So yeah, maybe Twitter's valuation now is $20B...that's not so different from Meta (Facebook) which was worth over $1 Trillion not so long ago. Current market cap for that company is now just $240B. There are countless examples of this.
Was anyone else looking to buy or take over Twitter? He royally hosed himself here got some bad timing. That does happen to everyone.

There is a large soap opera factor with all this for sure. A loudmouth buying Twitter and we all watch it play out on Twitter among other places is pretty great.

Twitter could close shop tomorrow, it wouldn’t impact many lives in the long run and Elon‘s certainly not.

Most likely it will just continue to be what it is now IMO.
There were no active buyers as a full acquisition, no. But, people were buying it everyday: pension funds, individuals, hedge fund managers, etc. And again, the immediate reaction by many prominent Twitter holders was the $44B was a low-ball offer.
It was absolutely horrible timing for Elon to do this. I don't think anyone will shed any tears for him (I certainly don't, he can afford it). But, I think it's too simplistic to simply say he effed this up by buying at $44B valuation. By that metric, anyone who bought any portion of any tech company during Q1 2022 effed up in the same way.
Prominent Twitter stock holders opinion of its value may have a little bias.

Will be fun watching this all play out. That is is something relatively trivial like Twitter allows us to watch this like a season of “Succession”.
 
Can’t it be both though?
Sure, I think there's an argument there for sure.

But even if so, he paid $44B and after this initial dust settles the company is going to be worth... what? $20B? $5B? He'll have to double the value, or maybe even double it twice, to get back to that.
Smartest guy in the room.
Isn’t he, in almost every room?
He’s certainly gone all in marketing that image.
 
Here was a response from a senior brand marketer to Elon’s claims that brands are giving into woke activists

Giant man baby
Lots of conflicting information out there. I'd stick with people who actually still work there:

I’d actually say we can trust those with their heads on the chopping block even less than those on the outside. Remember the Iraqi for foreign minister?
I mean sure, he could be lying. But that feels a little conspiracy-theory-ish to me. To imply he's worried about is job and therefore willing to flat out lie seems far fetched to me.

The other side of the coin is that you have countless people who are anti-Musk for one reason or another just throwing feces at the wall right now just hoping something sticks. There is zero cost for them to do that.

To me, it feels just a little outlandish that people are saying the sky is falling days after the ownership change.
 
To me, it feels just a little outlandish that people are saying the sky is falling days after the ownership change.
Elon Musk, the owner of Twitter, is literally the one doing this.
I was speaking to the moderation/circus atmosphere on the platform itself, not the revenue streams. I certainly believe Musk when he says advertisers are withholding cash, he would know. Just like I also believe the Head of Safety & Integrity at Twitter (Yoel Roth) when he outlines what has actually changed thus far regarding content moderation and personnel instead of random folks on Twitter.
 
To me, it feels just a little outlandish that people are saying the sky is falling days after the ownership change.
Elon Musk, the owner of Twitter, is literally the one doing this.
I was speaking to the moderation/circus atmosphere on the platform itself, not the revenue streams. I certainly believe Musk when he says advertisers are withholding cash, he would know. Just like I also believe the Head of Safety & Integrity at Twitter (Yoel Roth) when he outlines what has actually changed thus far regarding content moderation and personnel instead of random folks on Twitter.
The day after he took over, my friend, a black woman (with her picture in her profile) had at least a dozen DMs sent to her calling her the N word over and over, before she deleted her account.

So, maybe moderation hasn’t changed, but the way the worst people on earth feel enabled certainly has.
 
Yes. You think he's lying?
I don't know. I posted before, anyone who has a personal interest in this, we should take with grain of salt. Including fantasy podcasters who want Twitter to stay the same, investors in other sites who want Twitter to implode, journalists who use Twitter to further their career, and Twitter employees who just saw half the work force fired, and might like to keep their jobs.

Surviving employees reciting the company line.....that's not conspiracy theory. That's self preservation.
 
Just throwing this out there for now. I have a friend who lives in Ireland who said Musk got rid of the whole HQ twitter in Ireland. They were told without notice. Per his message to me today

They got no prior notice. Tried to log in but there access was revoked. And then told to wait for a private email to see if they have been sacked or not. Under Irish and EU law, this is illegal and it will damage their operations in Europe. Companies over here have to give proper notice and redundancy under Irish Law. They can't just turn around and say you are sacked. Workers have rights over here and these are the same laws the likes of Twitter agreed to uphold when they moved their European HQ here. And it's the same EU wide.

Expect to have Musk fighting some lawsuits overseas in the near future
 
To me, it feels just a little outlandish that people are saying the sky is falling days after the ownership change.
Elon Musk, the owner of Twitter, is literally the one doing this.
I was speaking to the moderation/circus atmosphere on the platform itself, not the revenue streams. I certainly believe Musk when he says advertisers are withholding cash, he would know. Just like I also believe the Head of Safety & Integrity at Twitter (Yoel Roth) when he outlines what has actually changed thus far regarding content moderation and personnel instead of random folks on Twitter.
The day after he took over, my friend, a black woman (with her picture in her profile) had at least a dozen DMs sent to her calling her the N word over and over, before she deleted her account.

So, maybe moderation hasn’t changed, but the way the worst people on earth feel enabled certainly has.
I'm sure there are any number of anecdotes. Doesn't change the fact of what the head of safety is telling us. I for one think he's being truthful.
 
Yes. You think he's lying?
I don't know. I posted before, anyone who has a personal interest in this, we should take with grain of salt. Including fantasy podcasters who want Twitter to stay the same, investors in other sites who want Twitter to implode, journalists who use Twitter to further their career, and Twitter employees who just saw half the work force fired, and might like to keep their jobs.

Surviving employees reciting the company line.....that's not conspiracy theory. That's self preservation.
Would you lie to millions of people and potentially damage your future career in this way? I mean, this isn't the janitor, he's a person in a prominent position and it's a role he's had for a while. My guess is he could find an equivalent position pretty easily at any number of other firms.

I personally wouldn't lie this way, but maybe I'm being naïve.
 
Would you lie to millions of people and potentially damage your future career in this way?
Not when you frame it that way. I think both halves of your statement aren't remotely likely. I don't think millions saw this tweet, and I don't think any future employer will consider this tweet.
 
Would you lie to millions of people and potentially damage your future career in this way?
Not when you frame it that way. I think both halves of your statement aren't remotely likely. I don't think millions saw this tweet, and I don't think any future employer will consider this tweet.
Ok, maybe not millions. But many, certainly enough. And this guy is at the forefront of the battle raging on & around Twitter right now. If he's completely lying, it could absolutely affect his future prospects. I wouldn't hire him. Nor would anyone from all the corps who are currently pulling advertising.

Would you hire him if he were found to be lying about what happened around content moderation in the early days of Musk's Twitter regime?
 
Expect to have Musk fighting some lawsuits overseas in the near future

I heard people have been terminated but will still be paid the next 90 days or w/e, keeping it all legal. But we'll see.

Not in Europe they need to be let known before you are terminated even with pay. EU rights worker has the right to be told in advanced of firing which Musk didn't do
There must be some nuance missing around this. I mean, think of all the ways an employee could mess with an employer once they have no going concern.
 
Ok, maybe not millions. But many, certainly enough. And this guy is at the forefront of the battle raging on & around Twitter right now. If he's completely lying, it could absolutely affect his future prospects. I wouldn't hire him. Nor would anyone from all the corps who are currently pulling advertising.

Would you hire him if he were found to be lying about what happened around content moderation in the early days of Musk's Twitter regime?
I don't agree with your characterization of his current role, so I'll just say I think anyone with skin in the game deserves skepticism.
 
Ok, maybe not millions. But many, certainly enough. And this guy is at the forefront of the battle raging on & around Twitter right now. If he's completely lying, it could absolutely affect his future prospects. I wouldn't hire him. Nor would anyone from all the corps who are currently pulling advertising.

Would you hire him if he were found to be lying about what happened around content moderation in the early days of Musk's Twitter regime?
I don't agree with your characterization of his current role, so I'll just say I think anyone with skin in the game deserves skepticism.
He's the Head of Safety & Integrity. Has been for quite some time. Not sure how that can be mischaracterized. He's on record saying not much has changed regarding content moderation. He has a live, detailed thread going about it. If he's found to be full of prunes later on, it would definitely affect his reputation negatively. It just seems to me he has more reason to be truthful than just about anyone else chiming in. But yes, he could be lying.
 
To me, it feels just a little outlandish that people are saying the sky is falling days after the ownership change.
Elon Musk, the owner of Twitter, is literally the one doing this.
I was speaking to the moderation/circus atmosphere on the platform itself, not the revenue streams. I certainly believe Musk when he says advertisers are withholding cash, he would know. Just like I also believe the Head of Safety & Integrity at Twitter (Yoel Roth) when he outlines what has actually changed thus far regarding content moderation and personnel instead of random folks on Twitter.
The day after he took over, my friend, a black woman (with her picture in her profile) had at least a dozen DMs sent to her calling her the N word over and over, before she deleted her account.

So, maybe moderation hasn’t changed, but the way the worst people on earth feel enabled certainly has.
I'll be That Guy and say that I don't believe this story. At all. If it happened as described and I'm wrong, I can live with that.
 
To me, it feels just a little outlandish that people are saying the sky is falling days after the ownership change.
Elon Musk, the owner of Twitter, is literally the one doing this.
I was speaking to the moderation/circus atmosphere on the platform itself, not the revenue streams. I certainly believe Musk when he says advertisers are withholding cash, he would know. Just like I also believe the Head of Safety & Integrity at Twitter (Yoel Roth) when he outlines what has actually changed thus far regarding content moderation and personnel instead of random folks on Twitter.
The day after he took over, my friend, a black woman (with her picture in her profile) had at least a dozen DMs sent to her calling her the N word over and over, before she deleted her account.

So, maybe moderation hasn’t changed, but the way the worst people on earth feel enabled certainly has.
I'll be That Guy and say that I don't believe this story. At all. If it happened as described and I'm wrong, I can live with that.
Lol ok. What do I care what you believe? I saw the DMs with my own eyes.
 
Expect to have Musk fighting some lawsuits overseas in the near future

I heard people have been terminated but will still be paid the next 90 days or w/e, keeping it all legal. But we'll see.

Not in Europe they need to be let known before you are terminated even with pay. EU rights worker has the right to be told in advanced of firing which Musk didn't do
There must be some nuance missing around this. I mean, think of all the ways an employee could mess with an employer once they have no going concern.

I don't know the whole law nor will say I know more then I do. I just know that the employees came in one day and couldn't log in and then got personal emails saying they were all sacked and wouldn't be brought back. EU rules stat from what was explained that if an employee is being let go in some degree they need to give them a heads up the company maybe going that way. This gives the employee time to get stuff together and possible look for a new position. Laws in Europe are very different then what they are here in America. Workers over there have a lot more rights and theres a lot of stuff that goes on in American companies that if we were under EU laws on worker rights the company could legit be sued and our go into bankruptcy.

The logistics here is that the Employees were suppose to have some type of warning but didn't even get a hint of possible termination. Here in America we have at will states meaning you can be fired for anything without warning. That can't happen in Europe. My guess without know though is instead of immediate termination they tell you that you have X amount of days or weeks before you are gone. Finish any projects you can and give others the stuff you can't finish or get them up to speed on what they need to take over. This gives the employee time to look over financials see if they can line up interviews etc. I'm guessing it's something like that. Also Europeans are in a Work to live mind set. They get ton of holiday time ad time off plus paternity leave with a huge amount. There's more of a respect factor between employee and worker and vis versa in Europe then here.
 
I can't really fathom why any of you would want to take either those circling the wagons or those kicked from the circle at their word right now. If I had to bet a child's life, I'd bet on both those groups lying. Why is always this need to defend/attack socially on these sorts of things. We will end up learning several months from now the truth is likely somewhere between these groups of dopes.
 
what confounds me in life is people’s ability to readily quote “amendment rights”, but not understand them or have even read them. i think this is ultimately musk’s play here. in today’s world there is no longer right or wrong, there is only them and us. musk is able to alienate half the population because he knows he’ll find another half just as anxious to join him. blindly. he is likely smart enough to know this, lord knows…..i am.
 
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