Thanks Chaka -- what about Swift vs Pollard?
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Week 10 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chaka
- Start date
Chaka
Footballguy
What you should make from it is you have a lot of solid options. Discerning between the options is going to be a tall order.
The Falcons are good against the run statistically but I think that's because they're terrible against the pass. They're also not very good in scoring defense. They also have given up 11 rushing TDs (three from Foreman last time they met). I hate chasing points but it's not like Foreman hasn't been very impressive at almost every opportunity. I guess the biggest concerns are 1) they were terrible last week (Foreman wasn't necessarily terrible, but for some reason he only had 7 carries. I don't think we will see that kind of volume again) and it's a short week. But he is probably your highest volume option. He may be your best upside option too.
I do like JuJu for sure, he gets at least 8 targets (6 of 8 games) but I think he has limited TD upside (1 target inside the 10). Good for PPR and a solid floor guy, just not sure if he is really a big ceiling guy.
Khalil has Detroit, we like that. But last week v Miami we were reminded of his floor. Sometimes he's not part of the game plan, against Miami the Bears had to be aggressive and, apparently that isn't how the Bears view Khalil's skill set. The Lions have definitely tapered off after their hot offensive start but they can still be potent, if they are against a mediocre Bears defense Khalil could be capped. He could also run for a 65 yard TD.
I like Lockett week-in-week-out but I think you have better options so why risk the extra travel?
Like Lazard but that Packers team is a hairs breadth from giving up on the season. Maybe they rally, if they do Lazard will be a factor. He is also their preferred target inside the 10 (7 targets, 5 TDs) so he probably has a safe floor. But that Dallas pass rush is ferocious, if the Packers don't bring their A-Game they could get pounded in Lambeau.
Foreman>JuJu>Khalil>Lazard>Lockett
Chaka
Footballguy
half PPR need to choose 2 for FLEX
I'll put them in order that I have them now:
Jeudy - Pickens - Hunt - Warren - R White.
The 3 RB's that are just on the cusp of possibly better days ahead of them. White being in the last position because of the Seahawks match-up. Saints are pretty good vs run so Warren is a dice roll, Hunt has his role defined and Miami could be a shoot out. Jeudy and Pickens just as a safe floor of 6-10 targets.
I'll put them in order that I have them now:
Jeudy - Pickens - Hunt - Warren - R White.
The 3 RB's that are just on the cusp of possibly better days ahead of them. White being in the last position because of the Seahawks match-up. Saints are pretty good vs run so Warren is a dice roll, Hunt has his role defined and Miami could be a shoot out. Jeudy and Pickens just as a safe floor of 6-10 targets.
Chaka
Footballguy
It's close and I see the argument for Brissett. CLE/MIA, on paper shapes up to be a game that will see more passing than PIT/NO, but I really hate predicting game scripts. Predicting winners & losers is fairly straightforward, predicting how they get there is a Sisyphean task.
They each throw around 32 passes per game. Dalton has a slightly better completion % (65.3-63.9), TD % (5.3-2.7), QBR (93.4-86.8) and sack % (4-5.9). Brissett is slightly better on INT% (2-2.7).
Dalton has only two of six games with more than one TD pass, but he has thrown at least one TD pass in every game. Brissett has two of eight games with more than one total TD and he has one with 0 TDs at all (and two with zero TD passes).
Brissett has rushed for two TDs (factored in above) and Dalton zero but Dalton has four TD pass upside and Brissett simply does not (he barely has two TD upside).
Defensively Miami gives up 24.9 ppg & Pitt gives up 24.6 ppg. Miami gives up 245.9 pass yards per game (7.4 yards per completion) to 277.3 for Pitt (7.8 yards per completion). Pitt has 10 total takeaways to 7 for Miami. Miami has 17 sacks to 15 for Pitt.
New Orleans is only one game out in their division and two games out of contention for the 6th wild card spot. Cleveland is three games back and two games back from the 7th wild card spot.
There are no true distinguishing characteristics that you can look at and say clearly one has a better opportunity than the other. But, looking at the totality of it, I think I give a slight edge to:
Dalton>Brissett
Carr
Buffalo is tough against QB and it looks like it might be sloppy conditions that push the game script towards more runs.
Full PPR
With both Rondale Moore and Kyler Murry questionable at the moment I need a back up at flex. I had been going to go with Rondale. My options if he is out:
Gerald Everett @ SF
Michael Gallup @ GB
I also have a less pressing question on defense. Pretty set on using KC against Jax. The option is Denver v. Tenn.
Yahoo and ESPN project Denver with higher points. Fantasy Football Pros projects KC with higher point but recommends Denver.
My gut says KC going against Trevor Lawrence over either Tannehill or Willis v. Denver with a run heavy script.
What says the Chaka-verse?
With both Rondale Moore and Kyler Murry questionable at the moment I need a back up at flex. I had been going to go with Rondale. My options if he is out:
Gerald Everett @ SF
Michael Gallup @ GB
I also have a less pressing question on defense. Pretty set on using KC against Jax. The option is Denver v. Tenn.
Yahoo and ESPN project Denver with higher points. Fantasy Football Pros projects KC with higher point but recommends Denver.
My gut says KC going against Trevor Lawrence over either Tannehill or Willis v. Denver with a run heavy script.
What says the Chaka-verse?
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Pick 2 flex spot in half ppr:
K. Herbert
T. Hill
T. McLaurin
T. Allgeier
T. Marshall
K. Herbert
T. Hill
T. McLaurin
T. Allgeier
T. Marshall
Timmay
Footballguy
Thank you for the reply. Much appreciated and useful information.
hmmmmm Both Carolina and Tenn have pretty porous pass D. I'll go with Sutton since Denver is coming off a bye and has a better QB (marginally?) situation.
Chaka
Footballguy
#### AJ Dillon!
The reality is these guys are all very similar.
I think you have to go with Godwin he just gets too much volume too consistently. 12, 13, 11 & 10 targets over his last four games. 10 or more targets in 5 of 7 games. Munich or Mars doesn't matter, that's too much volume and in your group volume is king.
I'm less keen on Diontae because the QB situation is not good but he's still getting solid volume with Pickett under center with 13, 7, 10 & 9 targets in Pickett's four starts. It's not a brutal matchup Pittsburgh never gives up, ever. It's a neutral matchup, they're at home and maybe the Steelers figured some things out over the bye week.
The third option is tougher, a lot tougher. I never underestimate the Raiders ability to play down to the level of their opponent and then start digging. I'm a Raider fan, I see it every week. However I have zero faith in Sam Ehlinger or the new coaching staff in Indy, what a weird series of events. That place is a #### show at the moment. The Risk:Reward ratio is too small for me. Pittman is out.
Between DJ and Lockett they are both interesting, high risk options. PJ did seem to lock in on Moore two weeks ago, but last week he only targeted him twice (0 receptions). Mayfield did look his way four times in the second half (2-24). Bottom line is Moore has never had fewer than 6 targets this season and is averaging just under 9 targets over his las six with three games of double digit targets.
Lockett hasn't had double digit targets since week 3 but he is averaging more catches (30-28) for more yards (387-361) and has two more TDs over the last six games. He's catching 75% of his passes compared to 52.8% for Moore over the last six games. I don't know if you saw Seattle v the Giants but Lockett was just a hairs breadth from having a three TD monster game, instead of a one TD nice game.
So the question really is Munich v Thursday night Football? It's really a coin toss but I thing Geno Smith is a much better QB than PJ Walker & Baker Mayfield.
Godwin>Diontae>Lockett>Moore>Pittman
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
DJ Moore or Jeff Wilson at Flex?
Chaka
Footballguy
Man, I hate TE questions.
Is Waller even going to play? He's still limited, I just can't trust him ATM.
Unfortunately Brate got in a full practice yesterday. That makes Otton a little less likeable IMO. If Brate is a late scratch then definitely Otton should start but right no I don't think it's a great risk.
That leaves Dulcich and, based on the first three games of his career he is a decent enough option.
Dulcich>Otton*>Waller
neal cassady
Footballguy
Thank you very much for this well thought out analysis. You should be on staff with this stuff..VERY helpful.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Thanks, that's how I had em ranked too. Ended up dropping Otton for a kicker. I like Dulcich enough and figure he won't goose egg me. Waller has been a thorn in my team all year. Too much potential to cut, too injured to ever start.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
And just like that it looks like Waller is headed to IR...
I think I'd go Aiyuk and Moore. At the very least the targets are there.
nittanylion
Footballguy
I'd like to talk about what the weather is going to be like tonight in Carolina. I'm not worried about rain, but wind worries me, especially when it comes to a non-A-list qb without a cannon arm. I'm somewhat in a corner having to start DJM on an unlucky Team in a ppr League, where I can only get in as a points Team at this point.
Is anyone starting Moore tonight for any reason other than they don't have another reasonable alternative?
He's almost a must-start if ths game was being played indoors in Atlanta.
Locals, please keep us informed. Thanks!
Is anyone starting Moore tonight for any reason other than they don't have another reasonable alternative?
He's almost a must-start if ths game was being played indoors in Atlanta.
Locals, please keep us informed. Thanks!
Chaka
Footballguy
Oh man...just a bunch of blind dart throws.
I think Melvin has to be one of your choices because, IMO he has the best chance at a short yardage TD. He may only get 10-12 opportunities, but they have given him goal line opportunities and I don't see that in any of your other options. The risk is, and it's a big one, is the Titans have given up only two rush TDs all season. The middle of that defense is their strength and they are top 10 in scoring defense. But I don't see another option that may get a goal line opportunity.
After that, I have no earthly idea how to distinguish these guys.
If I'm throwing darts blind I guess I am hoping it lands on Marvin because of the possibility the Chiefs force them to play catch up all day (you should know that I hate predicting game script. It almost never works out the way we think). And of all your options Marvin, historically, has shown to have a much higher ceiling than any of your other options. Maybe we finally capture one of those weeks instead of chasing them.
That's all I can really offer.
Marvin & Melvin would probably end up in my lineup of these options.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Bump for game tonight
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah, I think you're choosing from the RBs. Peoples-Jones is just a WAG if this is finally the week if he houses a long one. Maybe but I'm not banking on that when 4 targets are a legit possibility.
As far as which RB to bench, that's tough. I worry that Herbert can be phased out of the offense at times like happened last week. The Bears were passing a lot because the Miami offense is so good. Detroit likely doesn't have that kind of offense, but they sure have shown, at times that they can be a top offense. That being said I think that possibility isn't a huge factor in this decision. Herbert on 10-12 opportunities (15 in a perfect world) can be nice from him but he simply isn't a factor in the passing game (that's a hard fact at this point. The Bears don't trust him there when Montgomery is available) and not really a factor near the goal line (four of his eight opportunities inside the 10 came with Montgomery unavailable).
Wilson is clearly up to speed and looks very good in this offense. I think his opportunities are capped by having so many other talented players around him but he seems likely to produce when he gets the chance. He's a lot like Herbert but I am slightly more confident in his role and he is a little more involved in the passing game.
I don't think I bench Pollard for either of these guys. He is simply too good when given the chance. It will hurt if Zeke comes back but that isn't certain at this point. And even with Zeke it isn't more of an obstacle than the others have to deal with and he is probably the best player of the bunch.
Pollard>Wilson>Herbert>Peoples-Jones
Chaka
Footballguy
An NFL team.
Chaka
Footballguy
Gonna be honest, they're all dice rolls. But in a PPR I agree with your rankings.
I want to like Hunt more but at this point in the season week one is forever ago and we can't keep waiting for something that we had been assuming would happen eventually. Maybe it won't.
Warren should get more opportunities but, as long as Najee is healthy, I think he is legitimately capped for opportunity.
I don't think the Seahawks defense caps White so much as the Buccaneers offense. Ditto everything I said about waiting on Hunt here.
At least Jeudy has shown signs of life recently and Pickens should be in line for a lot more opportunities with Claypool out of the way.
Jeudy>Pickens>Hunt>Warren>White
Chaka
Footballguy
I get it, I do but IMO you have to roll with Cousins. I trust winning teams more than losing teams. Cousins has a great receiving corps, a good run game backing him up and they are producing reliably.
I want to say Carr because of the matchup but how can anyone remotely trust that offense (and defense) that shows up for half a game, if that, every single week? You can't. If they beat the Colts, and that a big "if", it could just as well be because Jacobs got another 30+ touches.
I wouldn't blame you for going the other direction because of matchups and locations but for me:
Cousins>Carr
Chaka
Footballguy
With Williams out and Allen still not practicing yesterday (don't know about today), I like Everett. If it looks like Allen is coming back this week then maybe I go Gallup but probably not.Full PPR
With both Rondale Moore and Kyler Murry questionable at the moment I need a back up at flex. I had been going to go with Rondale. My options if he is out:
Gerald Everett @ SF
Michael Gallup @ GB
I also have a less pressing question on defense. Pretty set on using KC against Jax. The option is Denver v. Tenn.
Yahoo and ESPN project Denver with higher points. Fantasy Football Pros projects KC with higher point but recommends Denver.
My gut says KC going against Trevor Lawrence over either Tannehill or Willis v. Denver with a run heavy script.
What says the Chaka-verse?
Everett>Gallup
I would stick with KC even with Malik Willis starting. Defenses are random number generators. Jacksonville is a decent enough matchup and Denver defense didn't get better after trading Bradley Chubb.
KC>Denver
Chaka
Footballguy
I personally auto start McLaurin over everyone in that group.
After that I guess it comes down to Herbert v Allgeier. Marshall has been nice over the last two games but PJ looked god awful last week and he's starting again tonight. And that team has me very worried. I think they got their post interim HC rally out of their system and they are going to continue sucking.
Allegeier was fine last week with 10 for 99, but in four previous games as a starter he went 58-185-1 (3.19 y/c) with 3 targets for 3-46-1. With Patterson back, it's hard to have much faith in either Allegeier or Huntley.
Not sure why Taysom is an option. I get the upside but his downside is 0 and he seems to live closer to his floor than his ceiling.
McLaurin>Herbert>Marshall>Allgeier>Hill
FYI just heard on the radio that KJ Hamler may be out with a hamstring. If so that bumps Jeudy and Sutton a bit.
edit: he is listed as LIMITED in practice today. the sports yakkers were saying it was reported as a non-contact injury suffered in yesterday's practice. May be bad news or may be just sports talk hyper-ventilating.
barneysarmy
Footballguy
if josh Allen sits and it sure looks that way, Do I roll with Brady or pick up Russell Wilson (I'd drop Brady in that scenario)?
PPR league. TE question:
* K. Pitts @CAR -- Lots of Pitts questions of course. Matchup good, but weather looks terrible. ATL will run as it is, but this could mean 50+ rushing attempts. Maybe even more conservative than usual. Will Mariotta pass more than 10 times? Could get loose...had his best game a couple weeks ago against the same team.
or
* G. Dulcich @TN -- Good matchup. He's been on a nice run and maybe the bye week was an opportunity to get him even more engrained in the offense. TN is tough against the run so Wilson probably has to throw.
Note: If I bench Pitts, I can't use him as a potential flex in the case where A. Jones doesn't play. That would leave me with the likes of AJ Dillon, D. Slayton, D. Carter, or R. White to plug in (which may be better options anways).
Which?
THanks
* K. Pitts @CAR -- Lots of Pitts questions of course. Matchup good, but weather looks terrible. ATL will run as it is, but this could mean 50+ rushing attempts. Maybe even more conservative than usual. Will Mariotta pass more than 10 times? Could get loose...had his best game a couple weeks ago against the same team.
or
* G. Dulcich @TN -- Good matchup. He's been on a nice run and maybe the bye week was an opportunity to get him even more engrained in the offense. TN is tough against the run so Wilson probably has to throw.
Note: If I bench Pitts, I can't use him as a potential flex in the case where A. Jones doesn't play. That would leave me with the likes of AJ Dillon, D. Slayton, D. Carter, or R. White to plug in (which may be better options anways).
Which?
THanks
Chaka
Footballguy
Wow, I guess it has come to that.
For one more week I am not buying into the Jaylen Warren talk. His two highest opportunity games were both big blowouts (Buf & Phi). New Orleans represents a beatable opponent, the Steelers are coming off a buy and despite comments suggesting an increase in work for Warren, he didn't see extra practice reps today. I'm going on the Tatum Bell theory and saying to ride the highest opportunity player.
Najee>Peoples-Jones/Hunt
Godwin is getting mad volume, 46 targets over his last four games. That cannot and should not be ignored (IMHO) be it in Munich or on Mars.
I can't get excited about DJ, I just can't. Short week, horrible QB situation, sporadic looks and let's not forget he needed a miracle with 12 seconds left on the clock to turn a decent day (5-90-0) into a great game.
I love Deebo and he should probably be an every week starter, then again so should Godwin. I think it is fair to be a bit bullish and see how he fits in with McCaffrey, Aiyuk and a healthy Kittle if you want. However he does have the best matchup, by a good margin IMO, so maybe he should be your top choice.
For me...I think I go:
Deebo>Godwin>>DJ
Chaka
Footballguy
I have very little opinion on Terrace Marshall. Honestly not sure why people are so excited about him. He's a big play threat on a team with really bad QBs. Any stats he gets feel like mostly luck.
Unfortunately I don't have much great to say about Courtland Sutton either. The only hope I have is maybe the team figured some things out during the bye and they play a little better. Considering the Titans defense is worlds better v the run (#2) than the pass (#30) I think we should expect Denver to pass more and be a little more effective.
I can see why people might want to roll with the younger, lesser known guy rather than the disappointing vet but if I'm rolling the dice on my team:
Sutton>Marshall
Chaka
Footballguy
I probably shouldn't be so down on the Panthers but I am. I think they had their post coach hiring rally and last week came crashing back to earth. I don't see them having much more rally monkey left in the tank.
Wilson came in and was an immediate factor in Miami. It will be difficult for him to get a ton of opportunities with so many talented players to feed but I think 10-12 opps seems very possible. I also think he is probably the goal line back over Mostert (just opinion though) so
Wilson>Moore
Chaka
Footballguy
I definitely like Pickens now that Claypool is out of the picture.
I also like Aiyuk, although with Deebo & Kittle & McCaffrey it may be tough to find opportunities I still think the quality of those opportunities has improved greatly.
I have been down on the Panthers this week and I plan to remain there, generally when I take a strong stance on a team or player it backfires on me (or maybe I only remember the backfires?), but I'm sticking with that stance. Atlanta has played hard all year and have control of the division ATM, I think the Panthers OTOH are crashing. At least last weeks disaster was enough for me to bench all Panthers, except Foreman, where necessary, for a week.
DPJ has been remarkably consistent over his las five games. He's had at least 4 catches and 50 yards each week and is averaging 6 targets, 4.6 receptions & 69 yards over that span. Plus he does seem like he has a real chance to house a long one at any moment. But I wouldn't bank on that TD if you start him, he is still waiting on his first TD of the season.
Don't have much great to say about Sutton except they are facing a terrible pass defense and had a bye week to, hopefully figure some things out. But really he's kinda crap shoot. I do think he is still a safe floor guy and has as much ceiling as anyone.
Pickens>Aiyuk>DPJ>Sutton>DJ
Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
I honestly have no real recommendation. I might roll the dice on Wilson with the hope that facing a terrible pass defense after a bye may have helped them figure some things out. Seems a little better than banking on international travel.
Chaka
Footballguy
Stafford missed his second straight practice today, it's a shame you have to make the decision now but I saw Higbee as a falling star prior to Stafford news.
Pitts>Higbee
Chaka
Footballguy
Again, I did not see this weather report. What I see ATM is 11 mph NE winds with light rain. Did that change?
Either way I don't hate Dulcich if the weather concerns you.
Personally I like that Pitts finally had back-to-back games with decent opportunities (9 & 7) and hope that is a trend and not a coincidence. I also think Carolina may be mentally defeated (I doubt they have another rebound in them, while ATL is playing to control their own destiny in the division).
So even though I like Dulcich, push to shove I still go:
Pitts>Dulcich
Last week may have been a blip for foreman but it looks like hubbard (who was the starter before getting injured) will be back this week. In the last 2 weeks guess who has been the #3 wr in my league? JUJU!!! Lazard is last man standing in GB and even though the Dallas D is very good doesnt he almost have to have a considerable floor? I am a big fan of Herbert and also an owner.....but it appears Chi sees him as their #3 rb (after montgomenry and fields) Locket is steady eddie and a fine start week in and week out and number 10 in my league. My order is Lockett, Lazard. JuJU ........... foreman Khalil ..... Cant imagine a top 10 wr ever being option 5 on the list. P.S. If those are your flex starters (especially the WRs) You must have some awesome starting wide receivers.
The weather does not look like an issue thats for sure.
Both RBs are hard to gauge so you can start Allgier if you want. I have no idea how much Patterson will be used this week.
DJ Moore and it is not close for me.
Chaka
Footballguy
My problem with Allgeier is how pedestrian he was in the four games he started.
But Hunt has been Pretty much I'm nothing burger all year.
Based on the thin premise that Algiers best performances were with Cordarrelle also in the lineup, I can see starting him.
But being that Kareem is still the receiving back in Cleveland, how bad their defense is And how Miami can score in bunches I think I would go:
Kareem>Allgeier
But I have zero confidence in that recommendation.
ETA @jobarules : Sorry I missed your part two. I was very down on the Carolina passing game and would have said DPJ>DJ hope you went that route.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Foreman is the only Carolina player I can see going with this week. But I really have a bad feeling about this team going forward.
But with Zeke still limited and Pollard playing as well as he is I think I probably go with him.
Although it's very close so if you think Foreman's the guy definitely go with him.
Pollard>Foreman
Chaka
Footballguy
Hollins just became a lot more interesting. I would be in on him 100% if it didn't feel like the Raiders FO went into full tank mode with Waller & Renfrow to IR along with Blake Martinez abrupt retirement. But who else is going to get targets after Davante?
I am not a fan of Aaron Jones this week unfortunately. The matchup is too tough and that team is too damaged.
Not a fan of Conner because I'm not a fan of Conner.
Hard to trust Cooks when he is so openly unhappy on what is already a subpar offense.
Gesicki is too uneven to risk it for the FFPC TE bump.
Davonta is your other option that I like. He gets decent looks in a high powered offense and he has tons of talent.
Davonta>Hollins>Cooks>Conner>Jones>Gesicki
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