Week 15 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

[Chaka]

This is a "who do I drop" question (redraft/ standard league) as I need to bring in Dobbins off my IR AND wanting to grab Jameson Williams - Thinking of dropping Packers to put Dobbins officially in then, I'd have to drop one of these to try for Williams:

Sutton, R. White, DPJ, Foreman, Patterson (ugh)--- leaning Sutton --my other WR's are Zay Jones, D. Chark. I have a bye this week --

I dropped Sutton for Jameson after the Denver @ Jacksonville game.

 

[Insein]

Two different queries. Two separate leagues:

#1 SF, PPR

T Huntley vs Cle
or
C Moore vs KC

#2 PPR

A Dillion vs Rams
or
ETN vs Dallas

So far, I'm leaning Huntley and Dillion, but I'm mostly comfortable not starting ETN.

Yea I would do Huntley and Dillon. QB upside is too much to ignore in super flex.

 

[Chaka]

Somehow ended up getting Dobbins and Walker logged a full practice so here we are!

PPR- pick one
K Walker vs SF (#1 ranked vs RBs) and Walker presumably will not get full workload. Thursday night at home in the dome.
Dobbins at CLE (#30 ranked vs RBs) in a time split. Not sure what the offensive plan will be other than to run, run, run so could get 15+ carries.

I don't like Walker tonight. Coming off an ankle, short week and against that rush defense are all huge red flags.

Dobbins looked amazing, should have around 13-17 carries (not a factor receiving however) and he has a great matchup. I understand not wanting to bench Walker and you should definitely start him if your gut is telling you to. He has a TD in 5 of 6 games he has started and finished and has 8 total TDs over that span. Kid scores in bunches and he is a potential factor in the passing game. But it is a rough matchup (the Niners give up 75 rush yards/game at a 3.4 clip with 9 TDs compared to the Steelers at 115, 4.2 & 7) and the Seahawks appear to be floundering after losing 3 of 4 (with the only win at home against the Wolford led Rams).

Dobbins>Walker

ETA: SORRY I GOT THE DOBBINS MATCHUP WRONG! DEFINITELY DOBBINS AGAINST THE BROWNS.

 

[Chaka]

And
Fields v PHI (#1 vs QB, home, off a bye. Will likely be down early so maybe a few garbage time bombs or long runs but maybe they'll just protect him?)
Dak at Jacksonville. (#25 vs QB so could be a 250 yd, 2td+ game) but DAL rides the D and Running game more than ever. Kind of the opposite of 2 years ago when they were routinely throwing the **** out of the ball.

I'm up against the #1 seed who's running Hurts/Andrews/ Jacobs/Henry/ AJB etc. dude's having a helluva year. I'll likely be tipping my cap to the kid but will go down swinging!

It really looks like you need a home run here, so much so that I may change my mind about Dobbins>Walker* above.

Dak could certainly out perform Fields but IMO Fields is your only option to keep up with Hurts.

Fields>Dak

ETA: * I see I got the matchup wrong for Dobbins above. I am not changing my call of Dobbins>Walker.

 

[Chaka]

PPR superflex - total points league, so no playoffs.

QB2 (QB 1 is Allen):

Carr vs NE (on my roster)
Ridder @ NO (on my roster)
OR can pick up Heinicke, Dalton, Darnold, McCoy, Rypien, or Mayfield

It's difficult to like Carr after last week and even more so against this opponent. If you use the way back machine, McDaniels did beat Belichick when Denver faced the Patriots in New England in October 2009 so...

Carr was abysmal last week but he has 2 or more TDs in 9 of 13 games so he is still, probably, your best option. The other guys are just as much of a crap shoot, at the very least.

I can see the arguments for Dalton & Darnold over Carr. Atlanta is very bad against the pass and Dalton does have 3-4 TD upside. The Steelers may be even worse against the pass and the Panthers are still in control of their playoff destiny. They are playing at a surprising level ATM and Darnold also seems to run in a surprising number of TDs. But he isn't getting you 300 yards passing, probably not even 250.

Yeah...:
Carr>Darnold>Dalton

 

[Chaka]

RB (need 3):

Barkley @ WAS
Etienne vs. DAL
Pollard @ JAC
Swift @ NYJ
R. White vs. CIN

Nice options.

Pollard is obvious.
Since it's PPR I think Rachaad is also a smart call. He should lay an egg and may surprise you.

I love Swift but just can't in this situation. Too much downside and I am not sure he is enough of a home run hitter relative to Barkley or Etienne to make the upside risk worth the risk.

Between Etienne & Barkley I just have to go with Barkley. Even playing poorly since after the Houston game he is more consistent than Etienne and have more TD and receiving upside.

Pollard>White>Barkley>Etienne>Swift

 

[Chaka]

WR (need 3):

Metcalf vs. SF
Jeudy vs. ARI
DJ Moore vs. PIT
Pittman @ MIN
London @ NO
Collins vs. KC
Gallup @ JAC

God I hate Russell Wilson so much. Three weeks without Jeudy and Sutton gets 17 catches for 221 yards. Yippie skippy. One game without Sutton and... I hate you Russell Wilson.

That being said how can you bench Jeudy after last week? Yes, it's chasing points but, he's going to get 9 targets and you're in a PPR so his floor is relatively secure.

I don't bench Metcalf. Just can't. Too consistent, too much upside.

The #3 spot is trickier but, honestly maybe not. What is the argument to bench Pittman at Minnesota? That defense is getting scorched through the air. The Steelers are too actually but are you really going to ride Darnold over Ryan? Okay, maybe. He was good enough last season to push DJ to 93-1157-4 but...really? Really???

London is intriguing from a "who else are they going to throw it to?" perspective so his floor should be secure and with his frame he definitely has jump ball TD potential. On this list he is the one that I think is most interesting for someone in a total points format.

Collins is out IMO. I mean, why risk it? Before you consider the potential game script, consider Dallas 27 Houston 23. Games virtually never go the way we think they will.

Gallup has a low enough floor not to interest me relative to Pittman, London & Moore.

Ultimately I think I have to go

Metcalf>Jeudy>Pittman>London>DJ>Gallup>Collins

 

[Chaka]

Fields v Eagles
Herbert v Titans

Eagles D v Bears
Saints D v Falcons and Ridder

I likely don't need the home run swing just solid output

Herbert has plenty of upside and a very stable floor IMO.

Herbert>Fields

Y'know the Eagles defense hasn't been the magic football beast I keep expecting them to be. However they still lead the NFL in takeaways and sacks (and are 7th in points against) so I'm going to keep rolling them out there.

Because defenses are random number generators this is how I look at it:
Eagles 19.1 ppg, 49 sacks, 24 takeaways
Saints 22.8 ppg, 34 sacks, 9 takeaways (32nd)

IMO probability favors:

Eagles>Saints

 

[Chaka]

A raft of perplexing flex decisions this week, big issue this week is having so many players potentially going in the one Thursday game (Niners vs Hawks). I do not like that at all.. Starting Cmac and AJ Brown, need 2 from the following in non-ppr:

K.Walker @ Niners - surprised he's even playing, ugly matchup, short week, big potential for re-injury or bust. Yuck right? But he's been soooo good too...
JK Dobbins @ Browns - plus matchup but likely splitting in some way with Gus
C.Watson vs Rams - Finally started him before the bye, nice week but he feels shaky due to volume. Still very tough to bench with such big play ability
T.Lockett @ Niners - Such a brutal matchup but the guy has scored in 6 straight games and basically seems to have a 60/1 floor which is nuts. WR7 in my league.

I discussed Walker v Dobbins above and I stand by it. I can't roll Walker on a short week, coming off an ankle, against that defense while his team is reeling.

Dobbins looked great, should get another 15 carries for a team playing for their division and the matchup is so nice. He is a great start this week but you have good options all around.

We're all waiting for the streak to end for both Watson & Lockett, right? Their volume is similar actually over their respective TD streaks with Watson getting 6.8 targets/game and Lockett 7.7. Lockett has a higher target ceiling if Walker is limited in his return though. I hate to bench either of these guys honestly.

Walker is probably the easiest decision here and I would bench him. Between Dobbins, Watson & Lockett I keep going back and forth so it's a real gut call, but all are good options for you. I think I would probably end up playing the matchups here so:

Watson>Dobbins>Lockett

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I've known this dilemma was coming for the past couple weeks, and now it's here:

Brady vs Cinci
White vs. Det

First round of playoffs, I'm playing the No. 1 seed but am only a slight underdog. They both had tough matchups last week and produced the same number of points. But this week White's matchup is much better. It feels so weird to bench the GOAT for Mike White. Then again, last week it would have felt weird to bench him for Mr. Irrelevant, and look how that turned out.

I think I want to start White, and the question is whether I can pull the trigger.

I'm way over Brady ATM.

White>Brady

Just made the switch earlier today. Like I said, it was less about deciding between them as it was about feeling comfortable with my decision (which I've found is often the case whenever you're faced with a difficult decision, and not just in fantasy)

 

[Chaka]

Pick 2 at flex (non-PPR):

Knight v Detroit
Conner at Denver
Mike Williams v Tennessee

Great options.

I don't love his matchup but the rush D is probably the weaker aspect of the Broncos and the offense in Arizona looks like it is running through Conner ATM and he is playing very well. I might like him a little more in a PPR but he's a solid option with his nose for the end zone.

Knight is running strong. You can see why they call him Bam. It also looks like his volume is stable around 15-18 carries, which is great. The Detroit defense is much improved on defense. Since week 9 they have been the best fantasy defense against RBs. They have played GB, CHI, NYG, BUF, JAX & MIN over that stretch. I think the Jets are still better overall on defense and should be able to prevent getting outright rolled by the Detroit offense so Zonovan should get his opportunities but I may temper my expectations ATM.

Williams sure looked great last week and he is facing an incredibly soft Tennessee pass defense. It's tough to bench him here. I didn't like that he tied for third on the team with 6 targets but the Chargers path to victory likely lies through the air and this Tennessee team does appear to be reeling ATM. Can they right the ship?

Yeah, tough one but:
Conner>Williams>Zonovan

 

[Statorama]

I'm in an "overthinking" quandary.

Josh Allen with a Tasty matchup vs. MIA, but could be blizzard conditions
Justin Fields with a horrible matchup against PHI, but CHI coming off of a bye, Fields with two full weeks of rest, weather is sunny and cold
Mac Jones is up against a bad Las Vegas team under the lights.

Am I crazy to consider Jones in this situation? If it was ANYBODY but PHI I'd likely go with Fields given talent + weather.

Obviously if I turn on the TV Saturday night and see Josh Allen warming up on a dry field he's my boy. So my question is Jones vs. Fields. Go with the best player in the worst spot, or the worse player in the better spot?

Rules below:

6pt pass TD, 2 pt per 50 yard passing (5pt bonus at 351), 1pt per 5 completions, -2 per INT
6pt rush TD, 1 pt per 10 rushing yards (5pt bonus at 151), 1pt per 5 rush attempts, -2 per fum
(PPR, but don't expect any of these guys to catch a pass)

I address this earlier but for clarity.

Fields>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Jones

And the forecast for Buffalo is 24 and cloudy with 9 mph wind.

Allen>Fields

Got my fingers crossed that it won't be white out conditions. The more I thought about it, I think Jones ceiling is Allen's floor

 

[BladeRunner]

both Karius Toney and Mecole Hardman are available on waivers. Should I pick one of them up and drop one of Elijah Moore, James Cook or Jaylen Warren?

 

[Chaka]

Looking for some help. I scraped into the playoffs based on a ton of waiver moves due to injuries. I have a bunch of scrubs that could put together a healthy game script, if I guess correctly, so need help everywhere. Let me know your two cents if you can.

0.5 PPR, 14 -team league

QB: Brady @ CIN or Goff @ NYJ. Brady has been soul-crushing all year. Goff has been on fire, but rough matchup with the Jets.
RB: Taylor @ MIN, Foreman @ PIT, Williams @ NYJ, Dillon @ LAR, Walker @ SF (Pick 2)
WR: Pittman @ MIN, DPJ @ BAL, Evans @ CIN, Burks @ LAC, Chark @ NYJ, C. Moore @ KC, Palmer @ TEN (Pick 3)
Flex: 1 of a RB or WR

So right now, I am leaning to the following:
QB: Brady against Cin, but don't feel good about it.
RB: Taylor and Williams. I don't feel safe with Walker coming back from injury. Foreman is a potential, but unsure on Hubbard timeshare. Dillon was great until Jones practiced today.
WR: Pittman, DPJ, Evans. I banked on the Brady/Evans stack and that has been BRUTAL all year. At some point they figure it out right? Pittman against Minny looks good, and DPJ with Watson seems fairly solid. Potential considerations with Burks, Chark, Palmer, and Moore. Great upside if I can count on them. With Allen and Williams back, Palmer is going back to the bench, but I can see Burks #1 and same for Moore.
FLEX: Right now I have Foreman in.

So that's basically the dilemma. Lot of good upside guys, but feeling like I am playing roulette to figure it out. My opponent is stacked. He has Burrow, McCaffrey, Etienne, Pacheco, Tyreek, Pickens, Watson.... so looking for upside.

I am very interested to see how the Lions perform on the road, in the cold against a strong defense. They wilted against the Patriots and Cowboys in back to back games earlier this year (6 total points) and Goff is a very different QB at home than on the road. He has two TD passes on the road (including three games where the Lions put up 31 v the Giants, 31 v the Bears and 24 v the Vikings) and he has 20 TD passes at home that is a crazy split. The Jets also give up 30 fewer yards and have 18 more sacks than the Bengals.

Yeah, I hate Brady and have trouble recommending him over many but I think I need to see Goff prove it on the road before I can start him away from Ford Field:
Brady>Goff

Obviously the game plan in Carolina is to protect Darnold from having to do too much passing. Ball control and grinding is the order of the day but there isn't much reason to think Hubbard is favored to Foreman IMO. The snap counts were 34:22 in favor of Foreman, IMO he is still the first option. It's a playoff game for the Panthers and they are playing well, if ugly.

I love Jamaal Williams but he is in a timeshare with D'Andre Swift even if the touches don't seem to reflect that. Over the last 5 games as Swift has gotten healthier his snap counts have started to match Jamaal's (128:136) and Justin Jackson is eating into the action as well. Jamaal isn't used as a receiver and it is fair to say he is 100% TD dependent. He has been great in that capacity but I am not sure this is the week I want to rely on that outcome.

Dillon is still interesting, particularly if you think the Packers will beat the Rams. I think that will happen but not entirely confident in that prediction. He's suddenly running as well as he ever has and, regardless of the Raider game, it is tough to see that Rams defense hold up to the pounding that GB can bring on the ground without Aaron Donald.

I am sketchy on Walker tonight as well.

Taylor>Donta>Dillon>Walker>Jamaal

 

[Chaka]

D: points for both yards against and points against
Saints vs Falcons
Ravens @ Browns

TE:
Everett vs Titans
J Driskel vs KC

Both the Falcons & Browns can do enough on offense to wipe out pretty much all defensive bonuses. But the Ravens have 39 sacks and 23 turnovers forced while the Saints have 34 sacks and 9 turnovers forced. While the Falcons & Browns are almost identical in turning the ball over and giving up sacks. It's also hard to imagine that Ridder will be much worse protecting the ball than Mariota who had 9 picks & 5 fumbles (7th & 5th worst in the league) while getting sacked 28 times (11th) in 13 games.

Ravens>Saints

Random number generators so this is a 110% W.A.G.
Driskel>Everett Because, reasons.

 

[Chaka]

Here's one.
FFPC scoring:
Need a QB:

D.Jones @ Wash
J.Goff @ NYJ

I am very interested to see how the Lions perform on the road, in the cold against a strong defense. They wilted against the Patriots and Cowboys in back to back games earlier this year (6 total points) and Goff is a very different QB at home than on the road. He has two TD passes on the road (including three games where the Lions put up 31 v the Giants, 31 v the Bears and 24 v the Vikings) and he has 20 TD passes at home that is a crazy split.

Jones>Goff

 

[Chaka]

Also, at tight end I have to choose 1:

Dallas Goedert at Chicago
Evan Engram Vs Dallas

I missed this one.

Goedert is not officially active. If he is close but not close enough to have been activated by Thursday, I'll pass.

Engram>Goedert

 

[FairWarning]

Cumulative season long scoring league, team is rolling now.

Flex, need one, full point PPR -

ARSB @ Jets
C Watson vs Rams
Montgomery vs Philly

 

[fightingillini]

Playoffs start this week and I lost Murray in my Superflex league. Please rank your top two out of these QB's that are available:

McCoy - Not sure what the Cards do here with 4-games left and being out of the playoffs
Riddler - Has upside only because we don't know anything about him yet; Preseason means nothing
Mayfield - At the end of the day, he is still Baker; Has incentive to perform to be a starter next year either in LA or somewhere else
Darnold - Has flashed in the past, but nothing as of yet; Is coming back from Injury but the team is bad
Trubisky - Not sure how long Pickett will be out; Has some upside with his legs be he is a true backup in this league.

Thoughts?

IMO I can't go with Ridder in the playoffs because of the unknown factors. And I can't go with Trubisky because of the known factors.

I absolutely see the argument for McCoy with his WR corps but on the road in Denver is a tough place to play. After the Cardinals performance, with McCoy starting, at altitude in Mexico City, I am not optimistic for anything more.

To me, in this situation I think I have to go with the guys that have the most to play for and that's Baker & Darnold.

Baker is auditioning for the Rams starting QB gig next season (or any gig really) and the Panthers control their own destiny for the playoffs. Crazy for a 5-8 team, but true nonetheless.

Darnold>Baker>McCoy>Ridder>Trubisky

My issue with Darnold is that I think CAR is going to run the ball 30+ times. For me you suggested Foreman as my flex, so you think he's going to get 20 or so carries and Hubbard should get 10 or more. Lambeau is tough place to play and you beat GB by running the ball down their throat.

So for me its McCoy>Riddler>Mayfield>Darnold>Trubisky.

This is showing how hard this decision is for Gooals. There is no good answer to his question.

 

[Bob N. Weaver]

1 point PPR: Need 2 of 4 RBs: Etienne, Montgomery, Foreman, and White. The twist is that 1 RB could be substituted out for WR/TE (Davis, Slayton, Burks, Pickens, or Waller).

I currently have the slots filled by Montgomery (no Herbert) and Foreman (should be a close game).

Thanks!

 

[Chaka]

.5 PpR

Need 2 RB and 1 Flx

Barkley @ WAS
Etienne vs DAL
Dobbins @ CLV
Stevenson/Strong vs LV
R White vs CIN
Z Jones vs DAL
Pickens vs CAR

I really like Dobbins this week in this particular matchup. Ronnie Staley is still healthy and this team is going to run a lot with Huntley at QB (he cleared the protocol, I think), and even more if...I don't even know his name is starting.

Rhamondre was DNP again today, I don't think he's playing. But Damien Harris may be, if D.Harris is playing it's tough to roll strong in what looks to be a crowded backfield. Kevin Harris was the next guy up after Rhamondre went down after all. Feels like too much speculation even if D.Harris and Rhamondre are both out.

No on Pickens IMO. 5 games since Claypool left and he has 14-252-1 on 21 targets. Hard to get excited about that even if Pickett is playing.

I like White in any PPR format. Brady had been peppering him with targets and he is seeing carries even with Fournette back. The concern is Fournette maybe wasn't 100% last week and could be healthier this week and command a bigger role. So for a pure volume play Etienne and Barkley may be better options.

The Cowboys are a strong D, no doubt but Etienne should see 15-20 opportunities. I like White but I an not nearly as confident in his volume.

Washington has been better against RBs than the Cowboys since week 9 (sort of an arbitrary cutoff but I think full season data may be less relevant than the last 6 weeks or so). But, like Etienne I am more confident in Barkley's volume than White's. But he has definitely been off since week 11 and I would be nervous about rolling him out IF I had similar options. I am not 100% sold that you do ATM.

Zay is definitely interesting. He is the clear #2 target in Jacksonville and he scored again last week. His target share seems to have stabilized over the last four games too after being very uneven for the first 9 weeks. He isn't a big red zone threat but I do like his volume. It's hard to send Saquon to the bench for Zay but it may be the right decision. Then again it would be difficult to start two Jags against that Cowboys defense too.

Okay buncha coin tosses here:
Dobbins>>Barkley>Zay>Etienne>>>

 

[Chaka]

.5ppr RB starts; need 2 of:

Zonovon v DET
Kenny Walker v SF
Rachaad White v CIN

The Lions have been the #1 defense against RBs since week 9 in PPR league, of course the Niners have been #3 and with league variability I am sure those numbers move a little bit. Either way these are two top defenses against RBs. In the NFL, the Niners are definitely better vs the run though so, I'm benching Walker for Zonovon.

I think I am also probably rolling Zonovan over White because there is some uncertainty with his usage now that Fournette is completely off the injury report. I don't know if we can rely on White getting peppered with targets AND still getting double digit carries anymore.

Zonovan should get his 15+ carries because the Jets defense is good enough to keep this a close game against the Lions high powered offense.

Zonovan>Walker>White

 

[themeistersinger]

Full PPR - Need a WR3

George Pickens at Panthers (Diontae Johnson was DNP on Thursday, Kenny Pickett still in protocol, LP both Wed and Thu)
Elijah Moore vs Lions (Corey Davis was DNP Wed and Thu)
Chris Moore vs Chiefs (Nico Collins and Dameon Pierce not expected to play, Cooks was DNP on Wed)
Jameson Williams at Jets (Mike White expected to start, weather OK for December in Jersey)

 

[Chaka]

WR help: 1PPR, 6/TD

PICK 3

- C Watson (vs LAR)
- DeVonta Smith (@ CHI) (Goederts back)
- Olave (vs ATL) (Dalton, ugh)
- DPJ (vs BAL) (Heating up)
- Chark (@ NYJ) (Jets D tough on WRs)
- Chris Moore (vs KC) (Collins & Cooks may both be out)

Watson is the only one I'm 100% confident in.

I'm not benching Watson either.

Goedert hasn't been activated yet, if it's that close at this point I'm not worried about his impact on Smith. Besides, he's a great talent facing a soft, soft defense, would you really bench this guy for Chris Moore?

Speaking of Moore, I'll pass and be okay with it if I'm wrong. Like Demarcus Robinson in Baltimore, I'm don't have a ton of confidence in 29 year old, 7th season breakouts even if he gets all the targets.

Much as I want to say Chark, Goff has 2 TD passes on the road and 20 at home. I need to see him throw multi-TDs on the road at least once before I can see Chark having any upside.

Olave probably has the safest floor with excellent ceiling. He should be good for 4-60-0 as a floor. That's 10 points in most full PPR leagues. Atlanta defense is also quite bad vs the pass.

DPJ had also been a safe floor guy and last week Watson couldn't take his eyes off him. I am nervous about calling that a trend, and if he reverts to the 5-70-0 guy he was previously does he really have more ceiling than Olave? The Ravens give up just as many yards passing as the Falcons, but they have 2 fewer TDs, 4 more INTs and 22 more sacks on the year, they also give up 5 fewer points per game. But Watson vs Dalton makes this one tighter than I would think.

Yeah for me:
Watson>DeVonta>DPJ>Olave>Moore>Chark

 

[Chaka]

Deciding between DK and Godwin in PPR. Bonus for 40+ yard TD.

I’m already starting CMC if that matters.
Other WRs I’m playing are Lamb, Allen, Hopkins.

In a full PPR, I guess I am comfortable with Godwin over Metcalf and if the matchup and it being a short week concern you then you should definitely go that route.

However for me personally:
DK>Godwin

 

[Chaka]

PPR, first round of playoffs, superflex with LJax prob out so need upside - start a RB, 2 WR and 2 flex, currently starting the highlighted. It's a mess, I know:

Singletary vs Dolphins
BRob vs Giants
Wilson @ Bills
ZJones vs Cowboys
Boyd @ Bucs
Reynolds @ Jets
Cooks vs Chefs
Hodgins @ Commies
Fant vs 49ers
Kmet vs Eagles

I honestly wouldn't change a thing.

 

[fightingillini]

Deciding between DK and Godwin in PPR. Bonus for 40+ yard TD.

I’m already starting CMC if that matters.
Other WRs I’m playing are Lamb, Allen, Hopkins.

In a full PPR, I guess I am comfortable with Godwin over Metcalf and if the matchup and it being a short week concern you then you should definitely go that route.

However for me personally:
DK>Godwin

This decision is easy for me. Godwin if you're a favorite and protecting points, DK if you are a dog and need the upside.

 

[Ray Barboni]

Kittle or Driskel …

 

[Chaka]

WR options are not pretty.
Kinda have to start Mike Evans and Diontae Johnson. 3rd option looks even uglier with Alec Pierce, Paris Campbell, Robert woods and Isaiah McKenzie. Just picked up Beasley but can’t see starting him already. Leaning McKenzie in what could be a shootout.
Then at TE is Everett, Dulcich, Hooper or bring up Chig from the taxi (which loses a bench spot).
Good thing my backs are solid or I’d have no chance. Just deciding between Walker and Knight as rb4

Not a lot to work with at WR but I think I have to go with the matchup and roll Paris Campbell. Pierce has the same matchup and possibly more big play potential but he seems to be running a lot of low % routes that I am not sure Ryan can hit anymore. Pierce has 20 targets over the last four and Campbell 23 but Pierce has only been able to pull in 7-114-1 while Campbell has 18-200-1

Woods is even more of a dink'n'dunk option but he may have some TD upside but, not much IMO. And the Chargers give up 75 fewer yards passing/game

McKenzie has some upside but also the lowest target floor.

Campbell>Woods>Pierce>McKenzie

I don't put much hope in TEs but Everett is facing a big pass funnel defense and Dulcich may have Brett Rypien throwing the ball. I don't have much interest in Tannehill targets either.

Everett>Dulcich>Hooper

 

[Chaka]

Another Murray fallout question...

QB scoring: 6/TD, 1pt/yd rushing, 1pt/20yd passing, -1 int, -3 fumble lost

White vs Det
Fields vs Philly

Huntley available on WW, but previous comments have me shying away.

I like Whites matchup, but Fields upside. Win this and im in the finals.

I see the issue, I really do and if you love the matchup then roll with White. But I'm not winning or losing with Fields on my bench.

Fields>White

 

[Chaka]

We have 3 flex so I start 3 and need to sit one of these:

D Hopkins @ Den (Surtain shadow and no murray)
A St Brown @ NYJ (Sauce and the other dbs)
M Sanders @Chi
T Hill @ Buff (Snow and ankle)

Which 1 do you sit?

Good problem to have ultimately.

I guess, on the principle that Goff only has 2 TD passes on the road and 22 at home, I may bench ARSB here. I hate doing it but I can't bench Sanders against that defense in a game they should win, the weather in Buffalo is supposed to be calm if cold (there is no forecast for snow) and Tyreek can salvage a bad game easier than any of your other options and McCoy seems radar locked on Hopkins. Hopkins is the only one I might consider benching as I think he and ARSB are in similar situations.

Tyreek>Sanders>Hopkins>ARSB

 

[Chaka]

half ppr

Lazard v rams
e Moore v lions
burks v lac (if healthy)

Don't tease me, Chaka. Also Saints or Eagles?

Not a tease. You posted in the wrong thread and I wanted to make sure it got to the right place. Didn't have time until today to address these.

Burks didn't practice again today so I wouldn't be confident in him playing. If he does he carries extra risk but he is probably your best option.

I probably roll the dice on Moore because the Jets don't seem afraid to let White chuck it 40+ times per game. Lazard has been trending in the wrong direction target wise since Watson emerged and both Doubs & Aaron Jones are back this week. There may not be a lot of targets to go around at this point.

Moore>Lazard>Burks*

 

[Chaka]

Like usual got some tough decisions and like usual I keep making the wrong choices.

Choose 2 (half PPR):
Christian Watson vs LAR
Christian Kirk vs DAL
Zonovan Knight vs DET
Brian Robinson vs NYG

I'm not benching Watson until after his TD streak ends. Just can't do it.

I also feel pretty strongly about Brian Robinson at this point. He is running a lot stronger now, including a nice game against the Giants before the bye. The Commanders are playing good football and I think the matchup is just better. The Giants have been one of the worst fantasy defenses against RBs since week 9 and the Lions one of the best. Zonovan & Robinson seem similar enough and they're both at home, so I'm playing the matchup here.

I like Kirk and he has a ton of upside but it's not a great matchup. I may actually like Zay a little more this week as I think he'll draw less attention from the defense.

Watson>Robinson>Zonovan>Kirk

 

[Chaka]

Absolute must win for this squad that got knocked out of the final playoff spot last week by Kyler Murray's injury. Win, and I could still sneak back in:

.5 PPR. Pretty much dialed in on offense (had Cousins as a backup option at QB at least), but the "Kenny Walker off the injury list totally" curveball has me waffling at Flex.

My original choices this week where between R. White @Cin, Kirk @Dal, and M. Brown @Denver. Was leaning heavily toward White, but the Walker thing has me pondering again. Not sure I can slug him in against the SF defense with a potentially gimp foot...but, as mentioned, it's pretty much win or go home here. Still have White in there. Talk me out of it?

Defensively, I've been riding SF for about a month, but with the "win or go home"in effect I'm sorely tempted to pick up AZ(as bad as they are against the pass) that looks likely to face a Brett Rypien-led lousy Denver offense. Denver vs. Colt McCoy is also an option, but I think I like that matchup a bit less.

I like Walker over R.White for sure. With a healthy Fournette I am concerned White will get closer to 10 opportunities than 15. The Buccaneers are also a bottom 5 scoring offense. I don't think you can go with Marquise Brown either with McCoy at QB and another difficult road matchup. I don't think McCoy's game translates well for Brown.

Kirk is the interesting one here. They both have difficult matchups for sure but Kirk is getting nice volume and gets looks in the redzone but I worry about the consistency of the Jags in general.

Yeah I think for me:
Walker>Kirk>Marquise>White

Defenses are random number generators so I go with the ones that yield the fewest points and force the most sacks + turnovers:
SF>DEN>ARI

 

[Chaka]

2 1st round playoff games, both PPR

1st League
Need 2 RBs, 2 WRs, TE, Flex
D Henry vs LAC
K Walker vs SF
R Stevensen vs LV
D Swift vs NYJ
J Williams vs NYJ
R Mostert vs Buf
A Cooper vs BAL
A St. Brown vs NYJ
Dev Smith vs CHI
D Njoku vs BAL
E Engram vs DAL

I'm not doing a write up on every player.

I believe Rhamondre is not going to play, if that changes I would start him.

Henry>K.Walker>Swift>Jamaal>Mostert

I definitely start DeVonta Smith against that soft Bears defense. Between Cooper & ARSB I do like ARSB more as a player but I have too many concerns about Goff on the road and particularly against such a tough defense. I hope he proves me wrong, but since it looks like Cooper is off the injury report and playing at home:
Cooper>ARSB

Personally I think last week was a ridiculous aberration for Engram and if he doesn't salvage his game two weeks ago with a meaningless late TD his line looks like what it has most of the season. I think it's chasing points. I think Njoku is a better player against a more manageable defense:
Njoku>Engram

For Flex it comes down, probably to Swift v ARSB. ARSB definitely has the safer floor IMO and he is good enough to disprove the Goff odds.

ARSB>Swift

 

[Gottabesweet]

Deciding between DK and Godwin in PPR. Bonus for 40+ yard TD.

I’m already starting CMC if that matters.
Other WRs I’m playing are Lamb, Allen, Hopkins.

In a full PPR, I guess I am comfortable with Godwin over Metcalf and if the matchup and it being a short week concern you then you should definitely go that route.

However for me personally:
DK>Godwin

This decision is easy for me. Godwin if you're a favorite and protecting points, DK if you are a dog and need the upside.

It’s pretty even. Maybe I’m a slight favorite but it’s a tough decision. Hate that it’s a Thur game.

 

[Chaka]

Found another one:
FFPC scoring:
Need TWO of the following flexes:

Jamal Williams @ NYJ
G. Dulcich vs AZ
M.Hollins vs NE

In FFPC I like Dulcich a lot. Rypien targeted him 9 times against the Jets on the road and he went 6-51-0 seems like the safest option and may have TD upside.

Jamaal is all TD upside at this point and brings virtually nothing in PPR formats. But if the Lions offense continues to be top five a lot of the scoring should be on the ground as Goff hasn't been great throwing pass TDs on the road (2 in 5 games). But it is very difficult to get a feel for how this game will unfold. It's strength against strength with the Lions O vs the Jets D and my impulse is to think "Same ol' Lions". So because I think Jamaal's floor is pretty low...

Dulcich>Hollins>Jamaal

 

[greenmountaingoat]

And
Fields v PHI (#1 vs QB, home, off a bye. Will likely be down early so maybe a few garbage time bombs or long runs but maybe they'll just protect him?)
Dak at Jacksonville. (#25 vs QB so could be a 250 yd, 2td+ game) but DAL rides the D and Running game more than ever. Kind of the opposite of 2 years ago when they were routinely throwing the **** out of the ball.

I'm up against the #1 seed who's running Hurts/Andrews/ Jacobs/Henry/ AJB etc. dude's having a helluva year. I'll likely be tipping my cap to the kid but will go down swinging!

It really looks like you need a home run here, so much so that I may change my mind about Dobbins>Walker* above.

Dak could certainly out perform Fields but IMO Fields is your only option to keep up with Hurts.

Fields>Dak

ETA: * I see I got the matchup wrong for Dobbins above. I am not changing my call of Dobbins>Walker.

Thank you for your feedback. It’s always tough to go against the ESPN projections but intuition tells me the matchup, injury and script were all pointing to Dobbins. I also checked a few analysts who all had it dobbins by a little. I’m third in scoring but had a tough luck schedule and was lucky to get in but 2nd highest projected total by 10 points so in some ways a tough out as a 4 seed. This kid just is crushing it.

Great work in here.

 

[Chaka]

PPR league. This is basically for today, a should I sit or start B. Aiyuk understanding other options.

* B. Aiyuk @SEA - Deebo out so theoretically should get more targets. That said, after watching CAR run all over SEA last week I wonder how much SF will need to throw. Ceiling probably limited, but should get opportunities.

Players I could wait on until after Thursday night's game:

* R. White vs CINCI -- Splitting with Lenny. Not a great matchup.

* Dobbins vs CLE -- GREAT matchup, but no PPR value. Huntley looks like he's starting so the offense should prove functional. Gus will get his.

* JuJu @HOU -- Back to normal last week, but KC faces a HOU offense minus it's top three weapons...and they already stink. Hard to see a ceiling game here and the floor could be low.

My gut says to roll with Aiyuk and then decide later in the week on the remaining.

Thoughts?

Thanks

It depends on how many of the other options you can start on Sunday. For me I clearly bench White from that group.

And, IMO, Dobbins is the must start in this group. After that it becomes a lot trickier.

I am not comfortable thinking the Niners will have a high passing volume offense regularly and even if they do I am not sure I am so sold on Purdy that I trust him to find Aiyuk regularly. Dude has been fun but let's not lose sight of who he is just yet.

I agree that KC should crush Houston but Cowboys 27 Texans 23. I doubt the Texans have another game like that but even if they do get crushed it is reasonable to consider KC will have plenty of scoring opportunities and, by extension, so will JuJu. He isn't often a red zone guy but his TD last week was inside the 5 and that game was never in doubt. He had 6 of his 11 targets when the score was 0-0 to 27-7

Dobbins>JuJu>Aiyuk>White

 

[kyoun1e]

PPR league. This is basically for today, a should I sit or start B. Aiyuk understanding other options.

* B. Aiyuk @SEA - Deebo out so theoretically should get more targets. That said, after watching CAR run all over SEA last week I wonder how much SF will need to throw. Ceiling probably limited, but should get opportunities.

Players I could wait on until after Thursday night's game:

* R. White vs CINCI -- Splitting with Lenny. Not a great matchup.

* Dobbins vs CLE -- GREAT matchup, but no PPR value. Huntley looks like he's starting so the offense should prove functional. Gus will get his.

* JuJu @HOU -- Back to normal last week, but KC faces a HOU offense minus it's top three weapons...and they already stink. Hard to see a ceiling game here and the floor could be low.

My gut says to roll with Aiyuk and then decide later in the week on the remaining.

Thoughts?

Thanks

It depends on how many of the other options you can start on Sunday. For me I clearly bench White from that group.

And, IMO, Dobbins is the must start in this group. After that it becomes a lot trickier.

I am not comfortable thinking the Niners will have a high passing volume offense regularly and even if they do I am not sure I am so sold on Purdy that I trust him to find Aiyuk regularly. Dude has been fun but let's not lose sight of who he is just yet.

I agree that KC should crush Houston but Cowboys 27 Texans 23. I doubt the Texans have another game like that but even if they do get crushed it is reasonable to consider KC will have plenty of scoring opportunities and, by extension, so will JuJu. He isn't often a red zone guy but his TD last week was inside the 5 and that game was never in doubt. He had 6 of his 11 targets when the score was 0-0 to 27-7

Dobbins>JuJu>Aiyuk>White

Yeah if I was to rephrase, I need two of R. White, JuJu, Dobbins, Aiyuk...just focused on Aiyuk because he's the first decision of the week.

Honestly, I wasn't really considering R. White. The matchup isn't there and the ceiling is low.

Dobbins I'm definitely leaning towards starting. The matchup is great and I'd think he may get even more snaps this week.

To me it's about JuJu vs. Aiyuk. Torn. I do think there's a decent chance that Purdy comes down to earth a bit...especially since he's a bit banged up. Game is in SEA too where that team can rise up out of nowhere. And you're right...KC will score...and they will throw...and Mahommes is I'd say a tad better than Purdy.

 

[Chaka]

Usually don't do a WDIS post but it's the playoffs and I'm ripping my hair out with my WRs. 4 spots for my 5 Wrs (3 wr 1 flex). Full ppr.

5 WRs: DK, Godwin, Amari, Olave, Pittman

DK and Godwin are starting.

Amari isn't 100% despite them saying he's going to play.

Olave and Pittman both play bad defenses.

Trying to choose 2 spots between Amari, Olave and Pittman.

I can see why you would be struggling here and I am not sure there is a way to truly logic your way through it.

Personally I have to roll with Pittman against that Vikings defense that has given up 311, 307, 364, 366 & 330 yards in their last five games. They played tough QBs for sure in Allen & Dak but gave up 364 yards to Mac Jones and the other two were Mike White & Jared Goff. Not exactly a murderer's row.

The Falcons have faced easier QBs over their last five but they only gave up 245 to Justin Herbert, followed by 101, 128, 138 & 197 to PJ Walker, Fields, Heinicke & Pickett. Tough to see Dalton being so much better than those guys to give tons of hope, but there should be some opportunities for him and Olave.

Watson is the wild card here. Apparently Amari is off the injury report despite being limited today, if he gets a full practice tomorrow I think I would have to roll with him over Olave. Amari is still getting 8 targets/game with Watson and if he's healthy he has as much ceiling as any WR in the game. He is more of a boom/bust for you but, again if he is a full go tomorrow I start him, if not you have to go with your gut but I still may start him over Olave.

Pittman>Amari>Olave

 

[Chaka]

Playoff week and I'm big underdog.

Standard - need to sit 2 of the following:

ETN vs DAL
D Hop @ Den
M Williams vs TEN
Bam Knight vs DET
Lockett vs SF
N Harris @ CAR

Been going back and forth all week.

Thanks again

DJ

And you will continue to go back and forth until kickoff on Sunday. I am not sure I will be able to provide much clarity here.

What I can say is the Lions have had one of the top fantasy defenses against RBs since week 9 (if not the top defense). They have been bringing it even though they have been facing good RBs in GB, CHI, MIN, NYG, BUF, JAX so Zonovan may have a difficult road to hoe regardless of how well he has been running.

Even though it is a tough matchup and the streak has to end I am not benching Lockett here, particularly in standard scoring where TDs have more value.

Carolina has been pretty middle of the road against RBs and Najee has been playing well lately averaging 4.3 ypc with a TD in 3 of 5 games. I do worry that he isn't being used in the passing game as I would have thought but if Pickett is out that may change.

I probably roll with Mike Williams against that Tennessee pass defense. They have give up points to WRs in bunches. Too much upside with Williams IMO.

It's a close call between Hopkins and Etienne for the last starting spot IMO. If it were PPR it would be a no brainer but it's not and I wonder how much scoring potential the Cardinals really have in Denver. But, ultimately I think the Cowboys defense is too strong and Hopkins more talented so, and this is very difficult but.

Lockett>Williams>Najee>Hopkins>Etienne>Zonovan

 

[Chaka]

Two different queries. Two separate leagues:

#1 SF, PPR

T Huntley vs Cle
or
C Moore vs KC

#2 PPR

A Dillion vs Rams
or
ETN vs Dallas

So far, I'm leaning Huntley and Dillion, but I'm mostly comfortable not starting ETN.

I get it with C. Moore but I think I have to ride with the QB in super-flex most times. And I just can't comfortably recommend a 7th year 29 year old veteran as some kind of consistent break out candidate. Even if he is the last man standing.

Huntley>Moore

I think I play the matchup with the second choice. The Rams just seem like the more vulnerable team IMO and Dillon really seems to have a hot hand even if Jones is back.

Dillon>Etienne

 

[Chaka]

Bumping this to the top as the game is tonight. Standard scoring, NON-PPR league. I need to start one of these players:

Walker vs SF - Coming back from injury against the #1 rush Defense
Lockett vs SF - TD in 6 straight games and had 90yds the first time out against them
Knight vs DET - Is the lead runner, but still shares snap count with others in the backfield

Of course I am over-thinking this like everyone else in similar positions. Originally had it between Lockett and Knight as I didn't think Walker would play or they would risk further injury. He is clearly the best of the group not taking specific circumstances into play. Lockett is on a TD hot streak and has a floor of about 6pts with some upside. I believe Knight has a similar floor.

Thoughts?

Answered

 

[Chaka]

I'm in an "overthinking" quandary.

Josh Allen with a Tasty matchup vs. MIA, but could be blizzard conditions
Justin Fields with a horrible matchup against PHI, but CHI coming off of a bye, Fields with two full weeks of rest, weather is sunny and cold
Mac Jones is up against a bad Las Vegas team under the lights.

Am I crazy to consider Jones in this situation? If it was ANYBODY but PHI I'd likely go with Fields given talent + weather.

Obviously if I turn on the TV Saturday night and see Josh Allen warming up on a dry field he's my boy. So my question is Jones vs. Fields. Go with the best player in the worst spot, or the worse player in the better spot?

Rules below:

6pt pass TD, 2 pt per 50 yard passing (5pt bonus at 351), 1pt per 5 completions, -2 per INT
6pt rush TD, 1 pt per 10 rushing yards (5pt bonus at 151), 1pt per 5 rush attempts, -2 per fum
(PPR, but don't expect any of these guys to catch a pass)

I address this earlier but for clarity.

Fields>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Jones

And the forecast for Buffalo is 24 and cloudy with 9 mph wind.

Allen>Fields

Got my fingers crossed that it won't be white out conditions. The more I thought about it, I think Jones ceiling is Allen's floor

Forecast is 25, cloudy with 9 mph winds.

 

[Chaka]

both Karius Toney and Mecole Hardman are available on waivers. Should I pick one of them up and drop one of Elijah Moore, James Cook or Jaylen Warren?

Meh, I probably wouldn't.

 

[Chaka]

Cumulative season long scoring league, team is rolling now.

Flex, need one, full point PPR -

ARSB @ Jets
C Watson vs Rams
Montgomery vs Philly

I can't bench Watson ATM. Just can't. The matchup makes it that much easier to choose him too.

 

[Chaka]

1 point PPR: Need 2 of 4 RBs: Etienne, Montgomery, Foreman, and White. The twist is that 1 RB could be substituted out for WR/TE (Davis, Slayton, Burks, Pickens, or Waller).

I currently have the slots filled by Montgomery (no Herbert) and Foreman (should be a close game).

Thanks!

I could make an argument for Gabe Davis over one of the RBs particularly if you are needing upside. Maybe Burks but I think he is trending out. But I like your choices and probably would have gone with them myself.

Montgomery>Foreman>Davis>Etienne

 

[Chaka]

Full PPR - Need a WR3

George Pickens at Panthers (Diontae Johnson was DNP on Thursday, Kenny Pickett still in protocol, LP both Wed and Thu)
Elijah Moore vs Lions (Corey Davis was DNP Wed and Thu)
Chris Moore vs Chiefs (Nico Collins and Dameon Pierce not expected to play, Cooks was DNP on Wed)
Jameson Williams at Jets (Mike White expected to start, weather OK for December in Jersey)

I think I like Elijah Moore here, particularly if Davis is out.

Pickens has done very little since Claypool left.
I'm not banking on the last man standing in Houston particularly the 29 year old 7th year vet. And Cooks practiced today (limited).
I love Jameson but you're hoping for a deep ball score from a QB who has 2 TD passes total in 5 road games this season.

Elijah>C.Moore>Pickens>Jameson

 

[Chaka]

Kittle or Driskel …

Why not risk it with Driskel?

Kittle is the far better player and the Seattle defense isn't very good so he is the logical choice but I am still not sold on Purdy.

At least Houston seems to be throwing #### against the wall to see if it will stick.

Driskel>Kittle