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Week 9 who should I start thread **OFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chaka
- Start date
Keith1
Footballguy
Here is my thinking about Love. G Bay management did not handle the whole situation with Rodgers well and it would be an embarrassment for them (and give Rodgers even more leverage) if Love were to fall on his face in his debut while replacing Rodgers. With that in mind, I would think that Green Bay would want to play things very conservatively here. Meaning more runs (both Jones and Dillon) and as little risk as possible for Love. If you see it differently I would be curious. Thank you for your opinions.
I'm debating dropping Jeudy for Dawson Knox since I need a better TE than Higbee if I can't start Jeudy this week. I think I might do that since he'll be locked for next week and I can pick him up again if I want.
PPR / Guillotine (i.e. lowest out of 10 teams is eliminated so floor matters more)
Choice comes down to:
FLEX:
Barkley vs LV (looks unlikely to go) (16 OPRK)
D'ernest @ CIN (23 OPRK)
AP @ LAR (24 OPRK)
Jerry Jeudy @ DAL (28 OPRK)
If Barkley goes its a no brainer for me. Think he has highest floor if he plays. However, he most likely sits.
D'ernest vs CIN may be a good game because 2 Jets RBs had great games against CIN last week and D'ernest seems to have fit in the Hunt roll.
AP vs LAR - this one is risky... Thought is he gets volume and TD opportunities. Surprised rams are 24th against RBs... They also get Von Miller.. Seems risky but if he gets volume then he may be safer.
Jeudy - he did okay last week with 7.9 points. It seems like a 3-way split between him, Sutton, and Patrick. Jeudy had like 73% snaps so there is room for him to go up in snaps but seems like they line up all three in the majority of the plays. He had tied lead for receptions with 4 and 4 targets is on par with everyone else. Also had 1 in red zone which matched his 1st week. Maybe he is safe but they seem to spread it around a lot so that has me concerned. Good matchup on paper as DAL allows 28th most FP to WRs.
Leaning towards dropping Jeudy as I get Lockett back next week. Not sure if hes clearly above AP/D'ernest. If he is a lot better than I can keep him and get another TE in week 11.
PPR / Guillotine (i.e. lowest out of 10 teams is eliminated so floor matters more)
Choice comes down to:
FLEX:
Barkley vs LV (looks unlikely to go) (16 OPRK)
D'ernest @ CIN (23 OPRK)
AP @ LAR (24 OPRK)
Jerry Jeudy @ DAL (28 OPRK)
If Barkley goes its a no brainer for me. Think he has highest floor if he plays. However, he most likely sits.
D'ernest vs CIN may be a good game because 2 Jets RBs had great games against CIN last week and D'ernest seems to have fit in the Hunt roll.
AP vs LAR - this one is risky... Thought is he gets volume and TD opportunities. Surprised rams are 24th against RBs... They also get Von Miller.. Seems risky but if he gets volume then he may be safer.
Jeudy - he did okay last week with 7.9 points. It seems like a 3-way split between him, Sutton, and Patrick. Jeudy had like 73% snaps so there is room for him to go up in snaps but seems like they line up all three in the majority of the plays. He had tied lead for receptions with 4 and 4 targets is on par with everyone else. Also had 1 in red zone which matched his 1st week. Maybe he is safe but they seem to spread it around a lot so that has me concerned. Good matchup on paper as DAL allows 28th most FP to WRs.
Leaning towards dropping Jeudy as I get Lockett back next week. Not sure if hes clearly above AP/D'ernest. If he is a lot better than I can keep him and get another TE in week 11.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Anything involving AP is just a W.A.G. Nothing from healthy scratch to 120 and a score would surprise me. My gut, and bias because I picked him up, says McNichols will be more involved this because of familiarity and the possibility the Rams score ADP out of the game script.
Dillon and Jones have to be a big part of the game plan, right? Probably. Most likely even. But maybe, possibly not as much as last week which was necessary because Rodgers doesn't throw to people he doesn't trust and Love probably doesn't have as much leeway to audible to a run based on coverage.
Dillon>ADP
Chaka
Footballguy
How can one possibly project these guys?
The Chargers have the worst run D I'm the league, bit Howard was sent back to the practice squad FWIW. And even though he was terrible, Gainwell did get 13 carries last week.
No clue with AARDP. Will he suit up? Will the Rams go up big removing him from the game plan? Is he even a big part of the game plan?
David Johnson was supposed to emerge last week with Ingram gone and in a game where Houston needed to throw the ball to keep up. WRONG!!!! Two carries and one target (ONE).
We all know what the Raiders are going through. And they have to travel east for an early game.
Gonna go with my heart here, not my gut, my heart.
The Raiders throw themselves into the game as a means of coping with a horrible tragedy. Getting out of town gives them more freedom to focus on the game rather than the constant reminder of an empty locker. Carr and Olsen attempt to show the rest of the league that with or without Ruggs they will continue to take the lid off defenses and Edwards is they guy they use to prove it and he rises to the occasion.
Edwards>ADP>Howard/DJ
Chaka
Footballguy
Really a coin toss on the RBs. It's a bummer you have to decide before we have a firm status for Kyler Murray.
It's only two weeks but Carter has shown he can be a big piece of the Jets offense, commanding a majority of snaps & touches from the RB position. Maybe that continues tonight. Maybe that was entirely game script related. I think Carter is going to be used with more consistency going forward and Edmonds will continue to have high variance.
But really it's a coin flip.
Carter>Edmonds
In a PPR I think your WR choices come down to Crowder & Bateman. With Corey Davis doubtful for tonight I think you have to roll with Crowder. His targets are too consistent to ignore and Bateman's role is still too much of an unknown.
Crowder
Chaka
Footballguy
As I said I have no real opinion about how Love will perform. Everything is speculation.
What I know is it is his second year with the team, he got virtually all off season reps before Rodgers got back, so he knows the offense.
He has one great WR, a good offensive line & two good RBs.
He obviously won't get an Aaron Rodgers game plan but I don't think that necessarily translates to a training wheels game.
I expect more running than usual but not necessarily as much as we saw last week where we can safely assume Rodgers audibled into many of this plays.
But, yes Love is a complete unknown and there is no reason to have confidence in any prediction of his performance.
Chaka
Footballguy
You have to like Jeudy's talent and draft pedigree but, I agree that's about all he has that you can rely on at the moment. And it's really more of a four way split for targets as Fant is a consistent factor. Plus, if they could do it successfully I am pretty sure Fangio would prefer to run on every single play.
There is no guarantee that Knox returns as his pre injury TD monster but I can see making that move providing your WR bench can withstand the hit.
For your flex call this week, I like D'Ernest as well but seven opportunities in a close game isn't really Hunt level usage. Maybe that goes up but there is a reason for caution.
The problem is you don't have any options that you can count on any more than D'Ernest. I am struggling to predict ADPs usage to the point of paralysis by analysis.
Honestly for this week, if Barkley sits Jeudy may actually be your best option against a Dallas D that can be thrown on.
Assuming Barkley sits and you make the move for Knox who also may not play then
D'Ernest>AARDP
Thanks. This is Guillotine so I have options to drop Jeudy or Collins for any number of players:
Murray vs MIN - I dropped him previously. Not even sure if he plays this week. Hate committees vs MIN.
Howard vs LAC - Will he repeat last week as 2nd RB? Leaning towards no.
AJ Dillon vs KC - they run more with jordan love as QB?
McNichols Vs LAR - maybe safe floor with PPR against Rams?
Bateman Vs MIN - Maybe he has equal or greater upside and more volume than Jeudy?
Edwards vs NYG. - Does his role warrant extra targets with Ruggs out?
I may do that as this week is more important than any future weeks. Any thoughts? Starting to think I need to think of waiver wire as a second bench. Will have to go through this exercise next week again though.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I agree about Dillon, McNichols & Bateman. But the first two are going to probably be very up and down for their usage RoS and Bateman seems like a clear third wheel in this offense RoS.
Still, being a guillotine league I guess this week is what really matters as you can reformat next week.
BTW I am too close to the Raiders as a lifelong fan but I do think there is a possibility Edwards gets 2-3 deep shots to see if they can establish the fact that they are still a deep threat team. But you can't really bank on that.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
If it were a straight up choice between them, I'd say it's close. But given that Monty may be coming back, the game is on MNF so you may not know for sure by Sunday at 1, and Pitt is a tough match-up, I think you have to go Booker
I like Booker a little bit better based on the match up but it is close because I think Herbert might get a little more playing time. Obviously if one of the starters is back your choice becomes easy but I don't expect that to happen this week.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Ugh. Feels like nothing is breaking my way.
12-team, 0.5 PPR. With Fournette on bye, my available RB options are Carter, Saquon, Chuba and Herbert. Carter is the only one who's locked in. Saquon is increasingly looking like he'll sit again. And now there are reports that both CMC and Montgomery could be back this week. Oh, and to make things even more complicated, I picked up two DSTs this week (Indy/NO) and dropped my kicker, figuring I'd pick him back up again once this RB situation got sorted out. So I either have to drop one of the RBs or one of the Ds before Sunday.
I'm mostly just saying this to vent, but I suppose the potential dilemma would be which of the backup RBs to start if I'm forced to. I guess Herbert since he's probably earned himself more playing time over the past few weeks, whereas Panthers are more likely to turn things back over to McCaffrey. I could also pick up Gordon or Javonte off the WW for a spot start.
12-team, 0.5 PPR. With Fournette on bye, my available RB options are Carter, Saquon, Chuba and Herbert. Carter is the only one who's locked in. Saquon is increasingly looking like he'll sit again. And now there are reports that both CMC and Montgomery could be back this week. Oh, and to make things even more complicated, I picked up two DSTs this week (Indy/NO) and dropped my kicker, figuring I'd pick him back up again once this RB situation got sorted out. So I either have to drop one of the RBs or one of the Ds before Sunday.
I'm mostly just saying this to vent, but I suppose the potential dilemma would be which of the backup RBs to start if I'm forced to. I guess Herbert since he's probably earned himself more playing time over the past few weeks, whereas Panthers are more likely to turn things back over to McCaffrey. I could also pick up Gordon or Javonte off the WW for a spot start.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I'm starting all three this week, but the only reason Moore is in there is because Metcalf is on bye. I've just about reached the point where I need to see it before I can totally trust him.
Maybe McCaffrey's potential return will open more things up for him, but of course you won't know his status by the time you have to make a decision tonight. So I'd go Carter/Pittman.
It is hard to bench Pittman right now based on the past few weeks so I would choose him. The other is tough - I think if you want to go with the safer option you should start Carter but I have a feeling Moore is going to start having big games again so I would probably lean towards him. The targets are still there and hopefully he will start clicking.
I don't think Monty will be back this week but obviously if he and CMac are back you might want to pick up one of the Denver RBs on the waiver wire because at least you know their usage.
Chaka
Footballguy
I know the Chargers have a terrible rush defense but the Chargers are not the Lions and we don't know enough about Scott to have confidence in starting him. Siriani could not be relied upon when Sanders was healthy and there is no reason to think we can rely on him now.
Melvin will get his 14 touches or so which makes him a solid floor guy, if unexciting.
I have been a Moss fan all season, he generally gets more opportunities in blowouts and he is facing a Jacksonville that looks like it may have quit. Even if they rally this week they simply don't have the horses to compete with Buffalo.
Moss>Melvin>Scott
Chaka
Footballguy
Booker is used in the passing game more than Herbert and sees roughly the same volume. He has actually performed well in 3 out of the last 4 games and wasn't that bad against the Rams either. He's also playing a home against, well who knows what the Raiders will be this week.
Booker>Herbert
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't think DJ can be relied upon ATM. He still gets the volume but who the heck is PJ Walker? It doesn't take much to be better than Darnold apparently but PJ Walker? I can't trust it.
I love how Carter was used the last two games but his variance has been high all season.
Pittman>Carter>DJ
Pretty easy call IMO
Chaka
Footballguy
Melvin Gordon and Javonte vulture each other for sure but they also both get about 14 opportunities pretty consistently. I think Gordon has the edge this week in a game the Broncos should be trailing a lot.
If you stick with what you have then I guess Herbert. I agree that he has earned more touches and there is no guarantee Montgomery will play. I also think McCaffrey may not play and you should have the luxury of waiting to see before deciding. McCaffrey's starts pivot to Hubbard.
And you drop a Defense. You always drop a defense. I picked up Cinci last week in their "super-plus" matchup and they put Mike White into Hall of Fame consideration. Drop the defense.
Herbert if McCaffrey starts. Hubbard at home against an average defense if McCaffrey sits.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I generally agree with you, but this one is a real dilemma. New Orleans is a great ROS option. Indy has NYJ this week, Jax next. I still haven't even totally decided which one I'm starting this week (leaning NO)
Chaka
Footballguy
Without getting too deep into the weeds, because I don't think it is necessary here, Woods has put up five consecutive okay to very good games. He is a high floor, high ceiling play ATM. To me he is the obvious first choice.
After that it gets cloudier. I expect Green Bay to try and run and Dillon will get his opportunities. Maybe 12-15, with reasonable confidence. I am not sure what he can do with that because he doesn't catch a lot and appears to be TD dependent.
I absolutely think McNichols will see more action and see a few more passes than usual. His floor is very low however because we simply don't know what to expect from this offense in what appears to be a very tough matchup.
Higgins has been nothing short of a disappointment this season but he has a reasonable floor and you have to think he still has real upside.
If it's my team I probably go with:
Woods>>Higgins>Dillon/McNichols
Chaka
Footballguy
I think you roll with whichever one you feel is the better defense. I agree that is New Orleans ATM. I totally get playing the matchups and it is smart, on paper, to roll with Indy tonight and v Jax, but defenses are pretty much random number generators and N.O. has a nice matchup this week too.
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
With news that Taysom Hill is returning to practice, would you pick him up and start him over Tua? One thing that has me leaning toward Hill is that, while there's a good chance Russel Wilson will be back next week, it's not guaranteed, and I think I'd prefer Hill vs Atl/Tenn over Tua vs Hou/Bal.
-jb-
Footballguy
Start Tua. The Texans have been dreadful and everyone his lit them up:
Stafford - 305/3
Kyler - 261/3
Wentz - 223/2
Jones - 231/1
Allen - 248/2
With Tyrod coming back there will be more reason to stay on the gas, and Tua has been decent/good lately.
ETA - can you hold both?
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ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
With NYJ playing tonight and Chicago not playing until Monday, and Monty potentially returning for that game, you have to start Carter.
Chaka
Footballguy
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I could, but I'd have to drop Golladay or Van Jefferson. Plus, for all I know Wilson will be back next week and I won't need either of them past this Sunday.
Apparently Payton hasn't even officially named Hill the starter, although I'd be shocked if he went with Simiean. Anyway, I think I'm going to hold on Tua for now and see what comes out in the next couple days.
-jb-
Footballguy
Thx. Now let’s complicate it a bit. In another league, I have Cordarelle, CMC, Herbert, Carter, Javonte.
Patterson starts
CMC would get the nod if he plays, but would need to pass on Carter tonight to leave room for that.
Herbert will play, but we don’t know how much.
Javonte is in the wind
now what do you do?
-jb-
Footballguy
-jb-
Footballguy
gotta play it like it’s the last week of the season. What gets you the win now?
modogg
Footballguy
i have similar situation with the RBs (have Carter, Edmonds and CMC). i went Carter, figure his ceiling might be better than the floor
Chaka
Footballguy
I can see rostering Taysom and even playing him. He looked pretty darn good last year. 70%+ completions, average y/a, decent TD & INT % and he can hurt you with his feet.
But he isn't even locked into being the starter yet, this isn't last season and, most importantly he doesn't have Michael Thomas. I didn't tally the numbers but it looks like Thomas had maybe a 30% target share in Hill's games last year.
Tua is a little dinged up so monitor that but he actually has 4 decent receiving weapons (this team shouldn't be this bad), not much of a running game and should have a plus matchup.
Tua>Taysom this week. RoS???
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Ugh, that sucks. I think it really comes down to how you feel about CMC. If your attitude is, he's my No. 1 pick, if he's playing he needs to be in my lineup, etc, then I think you do everything to make that possible: Sit Carter tonight, and if CMC is unable to go, you have Herbert or Javonte as your fallback (I would rank them that way, pending Monty's status. You'll probably know in advance of the Denver game, but if you don't then you just roll with Javonte).
On the other hand, if you're feeling cautious about CMC's return and want to play it safe, then start Carter tonight and don't look back.
Either is a perfectly defensible decision. You're dealing with a high degree of uncertainty and you can't possibly resolve it in the next two hours. So you just have to decide which strategy you're more comfortable with and don't beat yourself up if it goes badly.
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah, I see the concern but I don't think the drop from Carter to Herbert, or even Javonte is so precipitous.
Carter definitely looks like he is being used more but that is a very recent trend and he easily could easily have another 10-14 opportunity night on a short week. It's also possible the Colts figure White out, expose him as a mirage and shut the Jets down.
IMO holding out hope for CMC isn't unreasonable.
I don't think Montgomery is a lock to come back this week. I am not even sure his return is likely.
And if we hear Montgomery is definitely going to play before kickoff Sunday and are worried about Herbert's role Javonte isn't the worst back up plan. He gets 13 opportunities like clockwork, catches well and always has a better chance than virtually anyone to truck someone and break one off to paydirt. Seriously, his advanced metrics apparently have him as close to the best in breaking tackles and yac.
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-jb-
Footballguy
Thanks. I have decided to go with Carter over Edmonds but because of my terrible luck on Thursdays I think I will sit Crowder. Right now I have Hatdman in but I could go with Bateman or even Gallup or Van Jefferson. If the Jets get blanked my week is over on a Thursday lol.
Chaka
Footballguy
I honestly can't remember the last time I have seen a team quit so badly as Jacksonville did last week.
They have the Bills on deck and my guess is you are hoping for another eight targets.
Okay, I can see that. He's never been a particularly b proficient receiver but he can catch dump offs. I just wouldn't expect much more from him.
Everything about ADP is a W.A.G.
These are my thoughts on Javonte. He isn't the worst back up plan. He gets 13 opportunities like clockwork, catches well and always has a better chance than virtually anyone to truck someone and break one off to paydirt. Seriously, his advanced metrics apparently have him as close to the best in breaking tackles and yac.
Since it's PPR, your options are limited, and assuming Robinson doesn't play, I think you need to target the highest floors.
Hyde>Javonte>ADP
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
I just can't in good conscience recommend anyone start Hyde, especially in a tough matchup and especially considering he's not much of a pass catcher (and of course this is all assuming Robinson sits, although I suspect we'll know for sure by the time practice reports come out tomorrow).
So I guess it's JW and Peterson by default. But honestly, none of them are great options, so just go with whatever your gut is telling you.
Chaka
Footballguy
I was going to say the same thing but when I started looking into it a little bit it looks like Hyde isn't a very good receiver but he can catch dump offs. He's been serviceable in that role throughout his career. He caught 6 of 8 last week.
If Robinson is out they don't have many options in a game they are already down by 21.
It's tough to imagine Lawrence will have any more time in the pocket than he did last week. Hyde could be in line for maybe another 6-7 targets.
Hyde has close to zero chance to score and will be lucky to hit 50 total yards, but he could have 5 or 6 receptions.
ETA: It is very difficult to recommend him.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Like his talent and it's a plus matchup at home against an opponent with a front office that appears to have given up on the season.
He's talented but hasn't really blown up on the fantasy scene yet this season and clearly cedes TDs to Zeke so he'll have to break one off to find the end zone.
His touches are also slightly less consistent than Javonte's.
Pollard & Javonte have very similar profile but Javonte has been slightly better this season.
Yeah you have some tough choices.
I still think Hyde has a reasonable floor but he has almost zero upside.
Javonte and Pollard haven't blown up yet really this season but they have flashed a lot more than Hyde is capable of at this point.
Maybe they should your guys. I'm not sure.
Still have no idea how to slot ADP either.
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