Who is benching Tom Brady at Denver?? (1 Viewer)

[Interseptopus]

The only game from the below matchups is 2014 which is a worthwhile comparison with NO GRONK and a similar defense.

2016 310/1/2 with 13 rushing yards
2015 280/3/0 with 18 rushing yards
2014 277/1/0 with 7 rushing yards and a rushing TD
2011 320/2/0 with 2 rushing yards and a rushing TD

So you're looking at 12 points give or take.  The options most have on waivers in a single QB league are:

Flacco vs Philly, Tyrod vs Cleveland, Alex Smith vs Tenn.

For myself, Alex Smith seems like the safer play over Tom Brady given the matchup??

You all are nuts IMO

I considered Tyrod vs Cleveland but then I put the beer down and went to bed. 

Put me in the category of never bench your studs. Brady has played 9 games. Only 2 (22%) of those have been disappointing. 
Alex Smith has played 12 games, 7 of those were disappointing (less than 15 points per game) 58% 

I'll take my chances on 80/20 odds. Brady is way more likely to out perform his projection than Smith

 

[johnnyboy8102]

The only person available in waivers is Flacco and I would rather win/lose with Brady. 

 

[Warrior]

Not only starting him, I'm doubling up with Mitchell.

 

[flipcuplegend]

Those are good points about Brady being bad only twice.  I still think Smith is the better play given what Tennessee has allowed to the past 8 QB's.  Look at what Kessler and Barkley have done.  The ONLY reason I would start Brady is for the sake of knowing I wouldn't be ripped for leaving him in my lineup.  Flacco I would sit for Brady also.

 

[Andrew74]

You guys playing Kaep have some big balls. After that disaster in Chicago, no way I could trust him in the playoffs. At least you know Brady will complete more than 1 pass for 5 or 6 yards. 

 

[flipcuplegend]

You guys playing Kaep have some big balls. After that disaster in Chicago, no way I could trust him in the playoffs. At least you know Brady will complete more than 1 pass for 5 or 6 yards. 

I would not start Kaep that is way too risky for a playoff FF game.

 

[need2know]

I would not start Kaep that is way too risky for a playoff FF game.

Most people would say starting Alex Smith is too risky for a playoff game.  That guy is walking poop

 

[shadyridr]

People are streaming Atlanta defense as a top play yet others in here are staying kaep over Brady. Makes no sense

 

[Interseptopus]

People are streaming Atlanta defense as a top play yet others in here are staying kaep over Brady. Makes no sense

I'm starting Atlanta with confidence. Especially after seeing that dumpster fire last week.

SF doesn't want to win. Why would you start a QB on a team that is clearly tanking for a better draft spot? Over Tom F-in Brady! I hope Brady goes off for like 4 TDs and people actually do start Kaep and Smith over him. That would mean I win and that I get to say nanny nanny boo boo

 

[menobrown]

SF doesn't want to win. Why would you start a QB on a team that is clearly tanking for a better draft spot?

Not buying one piece of this.

 

[Bad_Mo]

But isn't that with Peyton? So the Pats had to put up points.....My Titans only needed 88yards from Mariota and pretty much dominated Lol

You really think Brady is going to hand off and not continue his complete and utter dominance of his opponents sending a message to Goodell and the other morons in the NFL front office?

You start Brady and enjoy the easy advance to the next round of the playoffs.

 

[Interseptopus]

Not buying one piece of this.

you're right. teams bench their qb who give them the best chance to win against terrible teams competing with them for draft spots all the time

 

[menobrown]

you're right. teams bench their qb who give them the best chance to win against terrible teams competing with them for draft spots all the time

Sure the 49'ers are tanking, sure thing. Every season a bad team does bad at end of the season they are tanking. Don't even matter if there is a franchise player worth tanking to get or if the current staff even has job security to return, they just want to tank to make it easier on the next guy. Makes sense.  Please make sure Carlos Hyde gets the memo this week.

 

[andyk803]

Alex Smith and Tyrod are still out there on my WW

Nobody else is worried that the Patriots could get 2 TDs from Blount in the 1st quarter and then just put it in cruise control and just hand it off to Blount all game since the Broncos will probably not score more than 6 points all game lol

 

[Gandalf]

Alex Smith and Tyrod are still out there on my WW

Nobody else is worried that the Patriots could get 2 TDs from Blount in the 1st quarter and then just put it in cruise control and just hand it off to Blount all game since the Broncos will probably not score more than 6 points all game lol

Worried but I just don't know yet whether my back up (Winston) has a better shot than Brady. 

 

[I Am Rick James]

Alex Smith and Tyrod are still out there on my WW

Nobody else is worried that the Patriots could get 2 TDs from Blount in the 1st quarter and then just put it in cruise control and just hand it off to Blount all game since the Broncos will probably not score more than 6 points all game lol

I have Brady and Blount. My thinking is if NE wins, I do too, one way or the other

 

[flipcuplegend]

alex smith has a ton to play for with weapons against a horrible defense.

 

[Nero]

FWIW:
Week 8 @ Buffalo, ranked 7th best passing D in yardage: 315/4/0
Week 10 vs SEA ranked 9th: 316/0/1
Week 14 vs BAL ranked 11th: 406/3/1

IMO the yardage will be there, it's just a matter of scoring. And Denver's given up close to or over 20 points per game 4 of the last 6 games. 

I'll take my chances with Brady. He's had only 2 stinkers for me all season. 
 

There isn't a comp for the Denver defense.  When it comes to the pass, they are 1st in almost every category, with a significant advantage over the 2nd spot in a few of them.  Brady is great, but there are better options IMO. 

 

[kittenmittens]

Alex Smith and Tyrod are still out there on my WW

Nobody else is worried that the Patriots could get 2 TDs from Blount in the 1st quarter and then just put it in cruise control and just hand it off to Blount all game since the Broncos will probably not score more than 6 points all game lol

Yeah...  I am worried about all sorts of game script issues in which the Patriots don't need to shred Denver through the air.   BB attacks weakness,  and that is not typically the pass game against Denver.  

I am starting Martellus though... I think I'll end up starting Brady over Kaep,  I need the floor. 

 

[DexterDew]

I have a couple shares left with only Cam and ASmith as backups.

expectations are tempered at 275/2 ish. I don't think we are factoring in White and Lewis out of the backfield. I see lots of short and intermediate routes. Den may have 3 good corners and a pass rush, but Brady can make non Edelman and Mitchell stars. As much as I am sure Blount will score , the Brady revenge tour throwing 40+ times and not letting up

 

[branch0095]

Probably benching Brady for Palmer this week.  I'm probably crazy, but Palmer's matchup is so juicy with them being at home against the Saints. I'm just very leery of the Broncos/Patriots game with Denver at home and needing a win badly. 

Palmer hasn't been great as a real QB this season, but he's still been a solid fantasy QB. He's thrown at least 2TDs in 4 straight games, including east coast games against Miami and Atlanta, and on the road against Minnesota.  Palmer has struggled going east but has been rock solid at home, and the matchup is primo. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Alex Smith and Tyrod are still out there on my WW

Nobody else is worried that the Patriots could get 2 TDs from Blount in the 1st quarter and then just put it in cruise control and just hand it off to Blount all game since the Broncos will probably not score more than 6 points all game lol

nobody else is worried that the Bills could score 2 TDs from McCoy in the 1st quarter and then just put it in cruise control and hand it off to McCoy all game since the Browns will probably not score more than 6 points all game lol

the point is, this can happen any week to any team

 

[Efritch4]

TB12 or Jameis for me...I agree with others - it's so hard to bench Brady unless you have Rodgers, Ryan, or Cousins. 

 

[elwayfan446]

Setting aside the fact that I am a Bronco lifer..... I am having a hard time benching him for Carr considering both matchups.  Carr has played well all year until last week.  Denver's Defense is not a great matchup for Brady... and I have a personal conflict of interest!  That being said.. there is a lot of money on the line in this league so I will happily sell my soul.  I just need to know who to sell it to!!!

 

[Interseptopus]

The matchup and Denver's superiority over the course of the season is a legitimate worry for people with great backup options, such as Cousins. 

If people are worried that NE is going to get up by 2 or 3 scores and hit the brakes and go with a running attack... when was the last time the NE Patriots hit the brakes when up by a convincing score? If anything, the Patriots would continue to throw just to prove that they can destroy the DEN defense. 

Final Score: 38 to 17
Brady throws for 275 and 3 scores. Brady owners with the cojones to start him rejoice as he propels them into the championship games. The other Brady owners sulk and think to themselves, "gosh I should just listen to that Dr Brew on the FBGs forum. What a great guy. I bet he's ridiculously good looking too. That lucky *******." 

Jokes aside, whatever you all decide, good luck to you. I'll probably get hosed on this one, and that's okay. In the event that happens I'm certainly not going to think to myself, "Gosh if only I had the foresight to pick up and start Alex Smith or Tyrod Taylor and start him over Tom Brady." I'll just figure you win some you lose some and my team didn't get it done. In the event I were to sit him and lose, I'd really be kicking myself for being so stupid in hindsight.  

 

[AngryPatriot]

Starting Brady as it should be. Don't overthink it. 275/2 is the floor.

 

[msudaisy26]

I don't have him in any of my leagues that I have to start players, but I would bench Brady for these guys for sure

Rodgers, Ryan, Ben, Flacco, and Cousins

I would consider benching him for these guys

Rivers, Stafford, Newton, Wilson, Brees, Palmer, Winston, Mariotta and Sieman.

Denver's pass defense is outstanding and their run defense is awful. We have seen games like this where the pats will throw 50+ times a game because they other team is stout against the run, and we have seen games where Brady does very little passing and the running game does all the work. This is one of those games.

 

[Interseptopus]

I don't have him in any of my leagues that I have to start players, but I would bench Brady for these guys for sure

Rodgers, Ryan, Ben, Flacco, and Cousins

I would consider benching him for these guys

Rivers, Stafford, Newton, Wilson, Brees, Palmer, Winston, Mariotta and Sieman.

Denver's pass defense is outstanding and their run defense is awful. We have seen games like this where the pats will throw 50+ times a game because they other team is stout against the run, and we have seen games where Brady does very little passing and the running game does all the work. This is one of those games.

Of Blount's 3 biggest games, vs defenses with good passing defenses, there was only 1 game Brady did not do very well for fantasy points (he had 316/0 against Seattle). TDs are very flukey and can come as 1 yard TD passes or 50 yard passes. He got the yards vs Seattle, just not the TDs.  I really disagree with this entire post... Flacco? I should have stopped reading right there. Big Ben? He's away... he hasn't done well away... Sieman!??! Ok now I've had my joke of the day. smh

 

[Moonshine]

Of Blount's 3 biggest games, vs defenses with good passing defenses, there was only 1 game Brady did not do very well for fantasy points (he had 316/0 against Seattle). TDs are very flukey and can come as 1 yard TD passes or 50 yard passes. He got the yards vs Seattle, just not the TDs.  I really disagree with this entire post... Flacco? I should have stopped reading right there. Big Ben? He's away... he hasn't done well away... Sieman!??! Ok now I've had my joke of the day. smh

Big Ben is 12-2 at Cincy in his career though, including playoffs. Wins obviously don't tell the whole story, but to my recollection he historically has better success on the road in Cincy than anywhere else. I don't think it's as simple as saying "he stinks on the road" and leaving it at that, at least when it comes to Cincinnati.

I get the point you're making though, and the dialogue thus far has had me move more from being undecided between Big Ben vs Brady to a strong lean towards Brady, but I don't think Big Ben's road/home splits tell the whole story, especially when he has a team's number like he does for Cincy, especially with how mediocre Cincy's defense is this year comparatively (9th most in points allowed to QBs, 12th most to running backs with a sizeable bump to running backs who can catch the ball, 4th most to TEs).

Looking at Big Ben vs. Cincy and Brady vs Denver, I see Big Ben as the more volatile play, with a much lower floor but a higher ceiling. Brady feels safer, but I don't realistically see him escaping Denver with a 20+ point week. My opponent has Wilson tonight, and if Wilson struggles I'll probably play Brady. If Wilson explodes, I'll probably swing for the fences by stacking Big Ben/Bell/Brown.

It could help me win big and recover some of that deficit, or I'll be bounced out of the playoffs in an embarrassing fashion. Big Ben has won enough games for me this year though that I won't rue the thought of benching Brady only to see him go off for 40 points. I'm happy with whatever option, regardless of how they turn out.

 

[Go DC Yourself]

I imagine a consideration is what you are seeking from your QB this week, a high floor (Brady) if the rest of your team is strong, or a high ceiling because you don't trust your team that much.  I'm in a start 'em once total points league with 23 other playoff teams, so am looking for a high ceiling and haven't used Brady yet.  The top guys I also haven't used yet are Ben, Stafford, Carr, Prescott, and Rivers.  Been going back and forth.  Right now I am leaning to starting Rivers at home against Oakland, because of the shoot-out factor in relatively warm weather  I just don't see Den-NE being a shoot out in December.  I should add that an additional consideration is I get to save the Brady bullet at home for the Jets on Christmas Eve. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Big Ben is 12-2 at Cincy in his career though, including playoffs. Wins obviously don't tell the whole story, but to my recollection he historically has better success on the road in Cincy than anywhere else. I don't think it's as simple as saying "he stinks on the road" and leaving it at that, at least when it comes to Cincinnati.

I get the point you're making though, and the dialogue thus far has had me move more from being undecided between Big Ben vs Brady to a strong lean towards Brady, but I don't think Big Ben's road/home splits tell the whole story, especially when he has a team's number like he does for Cincy, especially with how mediocre Cincy's defense is this year comparatively (9th most in points allowed to QBs, 12th most to running backs with a sizeable bump to running backs who can catch the ball, 4th most to TEs).

Looking at Big Ben vs. Cincy and Brady vs Denver, I see Big Ben as the more volatile play, with a much lower floor but a higher ceiling. Brady feels safer, but I don't realistically see him escaping Denver with a 20+ point week. My opponent has Wilson tonight, and if Wilson struggles I'll probably play Brady. If Wilson explodes, I'll probably swing for the fences by stacking Big Ben/Bell/Brown.

It could help me win big and recover some of that deficit, or I'll be bounced out of the playoffs in an embarrassing fashion. Big Ben has won enough games for me this year though that I won't rue the thought of benching Brady only to see him go off for 40 points. I'm happy with whatever option, regardless of how they turn out.

Yes, you are correct. I was unaware of his success at Cinci... I am not sure I'd play him over Brady, but I can see your struggle. 

You're right, I am not sure I see Brady coming away with 20+ points either, although if my 275/3 prediction would be well over 20. Maybe I'll temper that to 2 scores
I do think Brady is likely to get about 18 points, potential for about 22

I imagine a consideration is what you are seeking from your QB this week, a high floor (Brady) if the rest of your team is strong, or a high ceiling because you don't trust your team that much.  I'm in a start 'em once total points league with 23 other playoff teams, so am looking for a high ceiling and haven't used Brady yet.  The top guys I also haven't used yet are Ben, Stafford, Carr, Prescott, and Rivers.  Been going back and forth.  Right now I am leaning to starting Rivers at home against Oakland, because of the shoot-out factor in relatively warm weather  I just don't see Den-NE being a shoot out in December.  I should add that an additional consideration is I get to save the Brady bullet at home for the Jets on Christmas Eve. 

You're absolutely right here. I guess that explains why so many people are throwing, what I find to be, ridiculous names out there. I have a fairly strong team; I've come on at the right time. Bell is on fire right now and my WRs are doing much better than they did at the start of the year. Brady is icing on the cake for me. I do need him to do fairly well for me to win... 12-16 points just isn't going to cut it this week. I play a strong team. 
Someone in a different situation might really need a higher ceiling game at QB... which I get. I'm just not in that situation. I am the favorite in my game so my perspective is why take a chance, play it safe. 

Start em once total points league... now that sounds interesting... What platform is that through? 

 

[Go DC Yourself]

Start em once total points league... now that sounds interesting... What platform is that through? 

MFL.  Found it through here:  https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/746032-start-em-once-unique-25-l-safe/

 

[flipcuplegend]

You all are nuts IMO

I considered Tyrod vs Cleveland but then I put the beer down and went to bed. 

Put me in the category of never bench your studs. Brady has played 9 games. Only 2 (22%) of those have been disappointing. 
Alex Smith has played 12 games, 7 of those were disappointing (less than 15 points per game) 58% 

I'll take my chances on 80/20 odds. Brady is way more likely to out perform his projection than Smith

I thought about this again and looked at what Matt Ryan did with his RB's against Denver.  I see Brady doing 250 and 1-2 TD's but nothing more.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=400874607

With that being said, Alex Smith has been known to #### the bed when it comes to good matchups so Brady is likely the safer bet. 

 

[WheelsUp]

Just say it out loud and tell me how it sounds.

"I am benching Tom Brady when I need a win the most."

Continue your discussion.

 

[unckeyherb]

Just say it out loud and tell me how it sounds.

"I am benching Tom Brady when I need a win the most."

Continue your discussion.

No joke.  That actually, honestly, made me change my mind.  I'm back to Brady.

 

[Thunderlips]

I have Dion, Mitchell and Bennett.  If I'm not confident starting one of those guys.....I don't think I'd be confident starting Brady. 

 

[LBH]

I'm probably going with Matt Ryan over him

 

[Cyclones]

Lots of dumbassery in this thread. 

START BRADY. When Alex Smiff goes 17/38 for 164 with a TD and 2 picks, you'll be wondering WTF you were thinking. 

 

[renesauz]

Would love to have a better option for this week, as I certainly don't like the matchup, but even with this matchup there's only 6 or 7 guys I'd consider a clearly better option, and those 6 or 7 have been starting for other FF teams all year...not wasting away on my bench.

My "backup" option is Trevor Siemian...something I considered for all of about 10 seconds. Siemian may have a (slightly) higher floor, but this is the playoffs, and he can't remotely touch Brady's ceiling.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Starting Brady as it should be. Don't overthink it. 275/2 is the floor.

I don't think that is a reasonable floor vs the #1 pass defense on the road.

Floor is closer to like 225/1/2, Denver wins a desperate game.

 

[Interseptopus]

I don't think that is a reasonable floor vs the #1 pass defense on the road.

Floor is closer to like 225/1/2, Denver wins a desperate game.

what a weird thing to say. 

Tom Brady has thrown 2 int all season, but hes going to double that this week?

Dating back to 2013 he's had a 2 INT game THREE TIMES, but it's reasonable to say he'll have one this weekend?

you're prediction seemsto be the least reasonable and least likely here

 

[need2know]

I don't think that is a reasonable floor vs the #1 pass defense on the road.

Floor is closer to like 225/1/2, Denver wins a desperate game.

Idk about Denver winning.   They have looked so bad on offense.  Losing to TN and should have lost to jax.  NE probably only needs 21 pts to win.   

 

[Mofongo]

Anyone debating Brady/Flacco?

 

[need2know]

Anyone debating Brady/Flacco?

Brady. Debate over

 

[conlilnew]

Every year in FF playoffs there is a player that you count on that let's you down in a big way and costs you a win. A player that has produced every other game for you. That's Tom Brady this week. If you need a high ceiling from your QB this weekend go with Rivers, Flacco, or Tyrod. All three have cake matchups. We know the hoody is going to beat or try to beat Denver on the ground where they are vulnerable. They don't give up passing yds and TD's but they do give up rushing yds and rushing TD's. It's not going to take more than 21 pts to beat Denver. Brady won't be asked to do much.  I'm saying 200 yds passing and 1 TD and 1 INT. 

 

[IHEARTFF]

what a weird thing to say. 

Tom Brady has thrown 2 int all season, but hes going to double that this week?

Dating back to 2013 he's had a 2 INT game THREE TIMES, but it's reasonable to say he'll have one this weekend?

you're prediction seemsto be the least reasonable and least likely here

Do you not understand what the word floor means?

 

[Interseptopus]

Do you not understand what the word floor means?

That's still ridiculous. His floor is maybe 1 INT, and that's a maybe. He's thrown an INT in less than 20% of his games this season. You want to be reasonable, two INTs is not reasonable. You could say every QB's floor is 225/1/2 any given week. What a generic statement

 

[Thunderlips]

NE can win the game without Brady going off....and I don't think in DEN is a place that Brady is going to go off.  His ceiling to me is something of a game manager ceiling i.e. a below average game. If I had better options, I start them.  That being said, I'm not wringing my hands and cursing the FF Gods if he's my starter.

 

[Interseptopus]

Every year in FF playoffs there is a player that you count on that let's you down in a big way and costs you a win. A player that has produced every other game for you. That's Tom Brady this week. If you need a high ceiling from your QB this weekend go with Rivers, Flacco, or Tyrod. All three have cake matchups. We know the hoody is going to beat or try to beat Denver on the ground where they are vulnerable. They don't give up passing yds and TD's but they do give up rushing yds and rushing TD's. It's not going to take more than 21 pts to beat Denver. Brady won't be asked to do much.  I'm saying 200 yds passing and 1 TD and 1 INT. 

 Tyrod... a guy who is banged up against a team that won't score any points so they really don't need him to do much. Laughable. 

Tom Brady threw for 200 or less yards only 1 time last season. 
The previous 3 times Tom Brady has faced the Broncos he has thrown for:
2015: 310/1/2
2014: 333/4/1
2013: 277/1/0

Yeah... 200 yards...

I'll give everyone 1 INT. But all this talk about how NE won't throw the ball because Denver is so good is just laughable. Look at the history. If anything, he doesn't have the TDs, which are very flukey and could come as 2-3 1-6 yard TDs just as easy as they could be rushing TDs.

275 yards is incredibly reasonable, and >1 TD
The last time Tyrod Taylor had those stats was September. But by all means... start him.

Brady's floor is 17 fantasy points IMO. If you have a player you can confidently say their floor is 17 FP but their ceiling is higher, yes then you start him, but that list is very minimal.

Players mentioned on this thread... many are available on my WW and they are going to stay there.  

 

[Anarchy99]

Every year in FF playoffs there is a player that you count on that let's you down in a big way and costs you a win. A player that has produced every other game for you. That's Tom Brady this week. If you need a high ceiling from your QB this weekend go with Rivers, Flacco, or Tyrod. All three have cake matchups. We know the hoody is going to beat or try to beat Denver on the ground where they are vulnerable. They don't give up passing yds and TD's but they do give up rushing yds and rushing TD's. It's not going to take more than 21 pts to beat Denver. Brady won't be asked to do much.  I'm saying 200 yds passing and 1 TD and 1 INT. 

Tyrod is a better option? He's thrown for 3 TD once this year and 250 yards twice.