WR A.J. Brown, PHI (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

Let's be honest with ourselves here.  Corey Davis isn't garbage and Tennessee wants to run Henry into the ground.  If Henry leaves they will still keep running it because that's what their coaches want to do.  As much as I like Brown, and I had him the WR#1 in his draft, his ceiling could be limited for awhile.   He will still be very good for fantasy, but limited IMO.

 

[grateful zed]

nothing helps a good run game better than a good passing game, and vice versa.

the targets will come.

 

[grateful zed]

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR | AJ Brown Full 2019 Highlights

 

[JohnnyU]

nothing helps a good run game better than a good passing game, and vice versa.

the targets will come.

Perhaps, but Corey Davis will cut into those as much as the running game.  I said Brown would be good, but not as good as he could be in a different situation.  Plus, I'm not convinced of Tannehill.  He had a good year, but was otherwise garbage before that.  I want to see more from him to change my mind.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Love the player but crazy efficient this season and will be drawing more coverage this coming year. Doubt I touch him in redraft at his ADP.

 

[TheWinz]

Love the player but crazy efficient this season and will be drawing more coverage this coming year. Doubt I touch him in redraft at his ADP.

Those same words were said about Tyler Lockett entering 2019.  His efficiency dropped in all 3 major categories - catch %, YPC, and TD rate.  The one important category he improved was FP, and he finished WR13 in PPR.

AJ was not crazy efficient in catch percentage.  His 61.9% was 8.4 points lower than his QB's completion percentage.  He has lots of room to improve here, but it will be at the expense of his yards per catch.  He was one of only 2 WR's in the top 60 to average over 20 YPC.  AJ is a big bodied WR who is hard to tackle.  I think 8 TD's is easily repeatable for him.  I think he makes a great WR2 for 2020, especially considering he finished as a WR2 as a rookie.

 

[voiceofunreason]

Perhaps, but Corey Davis will cut into those as much as the running game.  I said Brown would be good, but not as good as he could be in a different situation.  Plus, I'm not convinced of Tannehill.  He had a good year, but was otherwise garbage before that.  I want to see more from him to change my mind.

Corey Davis being cut is more likely than him breaking out at this point. Brown has very little, if any competition for targets as Walker is getting pretty old. Brown can certainly be a solid wr2 imo, wouldn't want to bet on him being a wr1 though.

 

[JohnnyU]

Corey Davis being cut is more likely than him breaking out at this point. Brown has very little, if any competition for targets as Walker is getting pretty old. Brown can certainly be a solid wr2 imo, wouldn't want to bet on him being a wr2 though.

 No way he's going to get cut.  . In 2020, Davis will earn a base salary of $735,000 and a roster bonus of $3,192,921, while carrying a cap hit of $8,080,137 and a dead cap value of $4,152,216.  He's not a UFA until 2022.

 

[TheWinz]

Corey Davis being cut is more likely than him breaking out at this point. Brown has very little, if any competition for targets as Walker is getting pretty old. Brown can certainly be a solid wr2 imo, wouldn't want to bet on him being a wr2 though.

I would bet the farm he finishes at least a bottom end WR2.

P.S.  I don't really have a farm.  It's a raised ranch with a fenced back yard.

 

[Bri]

 No way he's going to get cut.  . In 2020, Davis will earn a base salary of $735,000 and a roster bonus of $3,192,921, while carrying a cap hit of $8,080,137 and a dead cap value of $4,152,216.  He's not a UFA until 2022.

He said more likely with sarcasm meaning he's not going to break out.  That data is wrong because the Titans didn't pick up his fifth year option. Maybe it's projected for 2021?

Davis needs a Devante Parker or Marvin Harrison 4th year improvement. He still plays patty-cake at the line and CBs press him as often as they can. After this, he doesn't have a good release and his whole route is a slow, a struggle, and a battle. He warned AJ that NFL corners press rookies a ton and showed him techniques to beat it and they stayed late to work on it. There's no doubt he knows how, but the guy won't apply it on the field. He's done it beautifully in preseason and camp and it's totally a mental nervous gametime thing.

He ran far better routes this year than any previous when he was played straight up. Not all the time, but when he did you could totally see him working out there and whew if he would just do as he's coached, with that talent.....but it is definitely at the extremely questionable mark where anything could happen to him from replacement, to dropped a couple spots (can't play slot like that), to trade, to but what if they trade him and he's a stud elsewhere? it's at that uncomfortable point for sure.

 

[Bri]

The Titans are trying to smooth the water with Delanie Walker. I doubt it's possible after essentially sitting him for opening his mouth but they're trying to keep him another year. He is under contract, but when he had to sit half a year with a sprained ankle and not allowed to return everyone, everyone said he was gone. Right now, he and Humphries playing Tampa style are the best options for a threat other than AJ. Jonnu has earned the right to have the starting TE spot too.

Humphries is going to make everyone's "add this guy" theory very unlikely this offseason. The Titans have 20? 22? free agents. After signing him to one of the bigger free agent WR deals last spring, they are way more likely to focus on ways to incorporate his ability and use their $ and picks elsewhere. It's a real big dramatic roster turnover that could happen although many want to return.

The Titans were awful for years. This is how it goes with the Cards, Bengals, and Browns. It all comes to a point and they're there. This is a huge offseason to remaining out of the cellar and being a good solid team for years. 

They could get lucky and have the right opportunity pop up but there are so many holes to fill, it really seems like they'll need to have their attention elsewhere

 

[Faust]

2020 Tennessee Titans fantasy football team preview: Is a top-10 finish in the cards for second-year beast, A.J. Brown?

Excerpt:

What's your bold prediction for ascending star A.J. Brown, and how high would you draft him?

Andy: As of this writing, four of the five Yahoo fantasy rankers slot Brown at WR13, a remarkable level of agreement. It should go without saying that Brown has a very good shot at a top-10 positional finish. He was a devastating big-play weapon last year. Tennessee made great use of Derrick Henry’s on-field gravity, using play-action as well as any offense in the league. I think we can take Brown’s terrific receiving performance over his final eight games in 2019 — 30 REC, 703 yards, 5 TDs — as a best-case scenario for the year ahead. He’s not likely to be a volume pass-catcher, because the Titans ranked next-to-last in pass attempts last season (448). But Brown is an elite home-run threat who should produce a significant yardage total while reaching the end zone 8-12 times. If you don’t view him as an early third-round fantasy pick, you’ll never land him.

Dalton: Brown was second behind only Michael Thomas in yards per route run last season and also finished top-three in yards per catch, YAC per catch and Passer Rating when targeted, all as a rookie who inexplicably slipped to the middle of Round Two. Brown also finished #2 in fantasy points per target and #1 in Production Premium. Any likely regression should be offset by greater volume in Year Two as the now clear alpha in Tennessee’s passing attack. While the Titans are no doubt a run-heavy team, Brown also benefits from Ryan Tannehill appearing to be 100% the real deal, and defenses will primarily focus on teammate Henry, an advantage few if any other receivers with his physical skills possess. I have Brown ranked as a top-10 WR, and my bold prediction is he finishes top-five.

Matt: There’s little doubt in my mind A.J. Brown can find his way into the top-12 wide receivers. He’s clearly a complete stud, dominating the competition as a rookie while playing a true No. 1 X-receiver role for the Titans. He gets off the line of scrimmage well, separates at all levels, and plays like a bully. The Titans won’t throw the ball enough for him to push for the NFL lead in targets but there’s little on the wide receiver depth chart beyond him. A young talent with a secure target share is the perfect breakout buy in fantasy. He’s a perfectly sensible third to early fourth-round selection.

 

[jm192]

Dude's a monster.  

Over the last 6 weeks of the regular season:  

25 Receptions, 605 yards, 5 Touchdowns.  He unfortunately kind of ghosted in the post-season.  Of course, Tannehill completed 7 and 8 passes in the first 2 rounds.  

I think with a full off-season for he and Tannehill to gel, he can put up 1200/8 no problem.  I don't know that I'm at the top 10 point of things yet.  

 

[King of the Jungle]

Dude's a monster.  

Over the last 6 weeks of the regular season:  

25 Receptions, 605 yards, 5 Touchdowns.  He unfortunately kind of ghosted in the post-season.  Of course, Tannehill completed 7 and 8 passes in the first 2 rounds.  

I think with a full off-season for he and Tannehill to gel, he can put up 1200/8 no problem.  I don't know that I'm at the top 10 point of things yet.  

He proved he belonged in this league sure. The only question is volume with him. Unfortunately it is a huge concern of mine.

 

[Vandelay]

He proved he belonged in this league sure. The only question is volume with him. Unfortunately it is a huge concern of mine.

I have concerns about volume like most do but it also seems plain as day to me this guy has elite, annual fantasy stud potential.  He probably needs the situation to change some to hit that ceiling but I'm more than willing to wait for it to happen and settle for low end wr1/high end wr2 production in the meantime.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I have concerns about volume like most do but it also seems plain as day to me this guy has elite, annual fantasy stud potential.  He probably needs the situation to change some to hit that ceiling but I'm more than willing to wait for it to happen and settle for low end wr1/high end wr2 production in the meantime.

Have him in dynasty now and it would take a crow bar to get him from me. I will ride the waves and wait for the perfect storm. Just hope it wasn’t last year.

 

[-OZ-]

Dude's a monster.  

Over the last 6 weeks of the regular season:  

25 Receptions, 605 yards, 5 Touchdowns.  He unfortunately kind of ghosted in the post-season.  Of course, Tannehill completed 7 and 8 passes in the first 2 rounds.  

I think with a full off-season for he and Tannehill to gel, he can put up 1200/8 no problem.  I don't know that I'm at the top 10 point of things yet.  

Love him in best ball (and for the Titans). But he's not top 10, yet anyway, in most formats. 

 

[tangfoot]

I’m certain the trade wasn’t straight up, so what did you add to get Hill?

Not that it matters to my opinion that you won the trade. 

AJB is young and talented, but he’s not in the situation that I want for a WR1. 
That team will win by running and defense so there won’t be consistent targets and his 2019 production is unsustainable going forward. 

 

[FGITLOTR]

I’m certain the trade wasn’t straight up, so what did you add to get Hill?

Not that it matters to my opinion that you won the trade. 

AJB is young and talented, but he’s not in the situation that I want for a WR1. 
That team will win by running and defense so there won’t be consistent targets and his 2019 production is unsustainable going forward. 

I agree on Tenn being a run first team, but Brown is an anomaly, and the coaches are smart enough to realize that they have to get the ball in his hands. He’s a solid #2  fantasy WR this year, and depending on QB play and game narratives, he has #1 upside. 

 

[King of the Jungle]

Hunt

his fp/target was extremely high and is not sustainable. He was not a wr2 in fp/g in 2019 with that ridiculous fp/target, so it's hard for me to see him as a WR2 in 2020. Unless the Titans are not going to be a run first team, then sure it seems possible. About the only promising thing about his 2020 is Walker left some targets for him to pick up. 

when it mattered most, the Titans did not put the ball in his hands: 3 games, 10 targets, 5 receptions, 64 yards

I love the talent, but I'm not sure some in here realize how few targets he actually got last year. His stats were inflated by some long TDs, which he has game breaking ability, but you can't depend solely on that. 

This is the truth and as long as TEN can keep winning the way they are playing that will not change. He has incredible upside but I think you are right, his value may never be higher. I can't bring myself to trade him however it may be the best move. 

 

[King of the Jungle]

Hinderly's May dynasty chart has AJ Brown WR8... flanked by Mike Evans, JuJu, OBJ. To me, that's insanely high

There is a lot to love about Brown the player and I understand the excitement. But yes, he will continue to have to perform circus acts with a large percentage of his targets in order to live up to that billing. 

 

[King of the Jungle]

I love the player. One of my favorite WRs. His landing spot was about as bad as it can get, so that really restricts his ceiling for me. 

Understand. The last couple of years I have geared towards getting guys that I really enjoy watch playing. At times that means I sacrifice value and points to a certain degree but it has made it more enjoyable for me. I don't blame you for shopping him, I think it is a great time to do so. However I am going to hang on and weather the storm even if it means I miss a sell high opportunity. 

 

[ffguru56]

I'm in a dynasty league so that's where my head is at with him and, since our waivers close mid-year, AJ Brown remained unclaimed all year since he didn't truly blossom statistically until the second half of the season.  I own the 1.01 in this draft and I'm taking AJB over all the rookies.  I  understand that it's likely that his situation with touches will remain low the next few years but situations do change.  I'll take the proven over raw NFL talent.  

Redraft would be an entirely different story.

 

[tombonneau]

I'm in a dynasty league so that's where my head is at with him and, since our waivers close mid-year, AJ Brown remained unclaimed all year since he didn't truly blossom statistically until the second half of the season.  I own the 1.01 in this draft and I'm taking AJB over all the rookies.  I  understand that it's likely that his situation with touches will remain low the next few years but situations do change.  I'll take the proven over raw NFL talent.  

Redraft would be an entirely different story.

Slam dunk 1.1. But what is structure of this league that AJ Brown was on waivers? He would have been at worst an early second. Someone cut him?

 

[tombonneau]

His stats were inflated by some long TDs, which he has game breaking ability, but you can't depend solely on that. 

I'm sorry, are we talking about Tyreek or AJ Brown?



Half-kidding. I love Brown and love him even more now that the offense can spend an offseason designing plays for him. It's very rare when a player on an NFL field can make some of the defenders look like high school players. When you see those players, you hold on to them.

 

[tombonneau]

I agree and I believe in his talent. My biggest issues are hes on a run first team, and the targets are few in general which lead to inconsistent scoring. I believe it was only 4 or 5 games with more than 5 targets... that makes it real hard to be a consistent wr1 or even wr2. 

Hes a far cry away from being an auto start. I hope his situation changes as I absolutely love his talent and him as a player. 

As far as my situation goes, it was a win now move and I am pretty deep in general at wr. It was tough to trade him away as I believe in his talent. Tannehill and the TEN offensive scheme just seems like a headache over the next several years.

I can try to buy him.back cheaper in that timeframe I think- And I will try! 

If you're win now, Tyreek is the play. But situations in the NFL change quick. Plus, I'd guess most owners have AJ as a WR2 or even WR3. And when you have a guy like that who you can count on for 3-4 blow up games where he finishes as a WR1, he's a week winner. I love that. You just gotta take some of duds. Again, very Tyreek in that way.

 

[ffguru56]

Slam dunk 1.1. But what is structure of this league that AJ Brown was on waivers? He would have been at worst an early second. Someone cut him?

He wasn't even drafted in our 10-team league.  It's a 22-man roster and we keep 14.  So most people drop K and DT and what few spots left to drop are spread out among QB, RB, and WR so there's usually someone that emerges from the rookie list during the year that no one drafted.  I honestly didn't even have him on my list because I still had faith in Corey Davis, who I own, and wouldn't have wanted to draft a second WR from the same team.  

Now, I'm saying goodbye to Davis and opting for Brown.

 

[FGITLOTR]

Hinderly's May dynasty chart has AJ Brown WR8... flanked by Mike Evans, JuJu, OBJ. To me, that's insanely high

In dynasty, I think he's in that neighborhood. 

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I'm in a dynasty league so that's where my head is at with him and, since our waivers close mid-year, AJ Brown remained unclaimed all year since he didn't truly blossom statistically until the second half of the season.  I own the 1.01 in this draft and I'm taking AJB over all the rookies.  I  understand that it's likely that his situation with touches will remain low the next few years but situations do change.  I'll take the proven over raw NFL talent.  

Redraft would be an entirely different story.

I hate to break it to you (and I'm not trying to be rude, I hope you enjoy this format since you're playing it) but that's not a dynasty league. For him to be on waivers halfway through the season with his pedigree and hype as a prospect (and his flashes as early as week 1), your rosters aren't big enough to be called a dynasty league. Especially with the weird half-season waivers. Sounds like a limited keeper league. 

Edit: I see you posted again after and that it's a 10 team keep 14 league with in-season rosters of 22. Yeah, that's definitely not dynasty but you're profiting from that now! 

With guys like AJB on waivers it seems someone who was willing to truly rebuild for a season or two could easily become a young dominant team by trading vets for draft capital and hoarding all the sexy young prospects who wouldn't sniff waivers in a normal dynasty league. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

his fp/target was extremely high and is not sustainable. He was not a wr2 in fp/g in 2019 with that ridiculous fp/target, so it's hard for me to see him as a WR2 in 2020. Unless the Titans are not going to be a run first team, then sure it seems possible. About the only promising thing about his 2020 is Walker left some targets for him to pick up. 

when it mattered most, the Titans did not put the ball in his hands: 3 games, 10 targets, 5 receptions, 64 yards

I love the talent, but I'm not sure some in here realize how few targets he actually got last year. His stats were inflated by some long TDs, which he has game breaking ability, but you can't depend solely on that. 

I think it's pretty clear that people buying him are buying the player, not the situation.  Buying the career, not 2020.  Hence the large disparity between his startup dynasty ADP (2nd round) and his redraft ADP (4th/5th round).

People watch him play and they see a young Julio Jones.  That's the biggest thing his value has going for it.  Speaking of which, regarding fp/target...

AJB: 84 targets, 52-1051-8

Rookie Julio: 94 targets, 54-959-8

 

[Guest]

In dynasty, I think he's in that neighborhood. 

I'm not so sure.

 

[Cobbler1]

I think his routes are sloppy at times but it doesn’t really matter because he’s just too physical. Once he’s even you’re not slowing him down with an arm bar. He’s knocking that sucker down and now you’re off balance, you have to catch him, and somehow get around his frame. And he’s got the foot skills to run really good routes. He changes direction like a guy 50 lbs lighter.

 

[Cobbler1]

Question for you 3 (and anyone else really!)

Where would AJB have to finish in 2020 for him to maintain a dynasty wr ranking of WR10 for 2021?

Working on this article and this is one question I can't answer, but I'd like to see what others would say. That would allow me to figure out what kind of a scenario would result in him at least maintaining his dynasty value, and speculating how realistic that is in the TEN offense 

This is a tough question. I’d be looking for mid-high wr2 numbers. 230-240 points. Something along the lines of 72-78/1100-1200/8-10 tds.

 

[Faust]

Vrabel expects to see improved A.J. Brown in 2020

It’s safe to assume that Tennessee Titans second-round pick A.J. Brown far exceeded everyone’s expectations last season.

Brown was the first rookie since 1970 with at least 1,000 yards receiving while averaging at least 20 yards per reception and was just the fourth rookie since 1970 with four or more touchdowns of 50 yards or more. 

The 6-foot-1 wideout was the only 1,000-yard rookie receiver (1,051 yards) and he led all rookies in touchdown receptions (eight) and receptions of 40 yards or more (eight). He ranked second in average yards per receptions (20.2) and receptions of 20 yards or more (15), while finishing fourth among all rookies in receptions (52).

Even with Brown's impressive rookie resume, Titans head coach Mike Vrabel still believes we haven’t seen the best of the young receiver  

“I think there’s some things at the top of the route that we always can work on,” Vrabel said. “The one thing that always is going to stand out is making sure we’re strong with the football, we’re taking care of the football, our ball security. Being able to use his hands in a manner that allows him to be physical, but not draw penalties.”

Brown was targeted 84 times last season — the fewest for a 1,000-yard receiver since Pro Football Focus started charting statistics in 2006.

Of the NFL's top four rookie receivers in 2019 — D.K. Metcalf (100), Terry McLaurin (93), Deebo Samuel (81) — Brown was targeted the third-fewest times. He had fewer receptions but more yards, touchdowns and a higher average yards per reception than each of the other three.

Also, Brown was one of just four receivers to average more than 20 yards per reception against single coverage last season joining Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans and Metcalf. Brown finished in the top three in yards per catch, yards after the catch per reception and passer rating when targeted. In addition, he was second to only Michael Thomas in yards per route run (2.67), which was the highest mark by a rookie since 2014. 

As impressive as all of his stats are, Vrabel still expects to see a more physical version of Brown this season. He emerged as Tannehill’s go-to option down the stretch last season and was the NFL’s third-highest rated receiver after Tannehill took over the starting job. Now, with a full season under his belt, expect to see a more aggressive, focused Brown heading into this season. 

“There’s things that I can help him do, and (wide receivers coach) Rob (Moore) and (offensive coordinator) Arthur (Smith) can help him play physical, but hopefully put him out of harm’s way of pass interference,” Vrabel continued. “There’s plenty for A.J. and the rest of our football team to try to improve on.”

 

[Faust]

The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Season: A.J. Brown

 

[Faust]

Can Titans' A.J. Brown repeat 2019 fantasy performance?

 

[Faust]

Tennessee Titans' A.J. Brown ranked as top 10 pass-catcher from 2019

 

[Faust]

A.J. Brown motivated by not winning rookie of the year

 

[barackdhouse]

Question for you 3 (and anyone else really!)

Where would AJB have to finish in 2020 for him to maintain a dynasty wr ranking of WR10 for 2021?

Working on this article and this is one question I can't answer, but I'd like to see what others would say. That would allow me to figure out what kind of a scenario would result in him at least maintaining his dynasty value, and speculating how realistic that is in the TEN offense 

I'm trying to count how many *aging* vets would be likely or plausible to finish higher than him, so that maybe if he finished no lower than about WR16-20 for 2020 he would maintain a WR10 dynasty rank. 

Evans, Julio, Woods, Arob, Golladay, Thielen, Shepard, Allen, Hilton, Cooks, AJ Green or Boyd, Landry, Parker

All names that could finish higher than AJ Brown this year but conceivably be ranked lower in dynasty after. Maybe. Probably scratch Evans.  And not sure about a guy like OBJ. 

So yeah I'm thinking if he finishes as a little better than a low end WR2 he should be good.

 

[Faust]

Titans WR A.J. Brown ready for big Year 2: 'Sky is the limit'

 

[tombonneau]

Question for you 3 (and anyone else really!)

Where would AJB have to finish in 2020 for him to maintain a dynasty wr ranking of WR10 for 2021?

Working on this article and this is one question I can't answer, but I'd like to see what others would say. That would allow me to figure out what kind of a scenario would result in him at least maintaining his dynasty value, and speculating how realistic that is in the TEN offense 

As long as he finishes around top 20-25 I wouldn't budge him. Ignoring the top 10 and anyone slipping, let's look who is on his heels. Popular dynasty site I use has for WR11-20:

1. OBJ
   
2. Metcalf
   
3. Golladay
   
4. Sutton
   
5. Kupp
   
6. Lamb
   
7. Allen
   
8. Ridley
   
9. Jeudy
   
10. Julio
    

I've bolded guys who with a mega season could easily jump him. Italics are guys who are only moving in one direction at this point. 

So I guess to answer your question, it would take one of the bold having a top 5 breakthrough (revival in OBJ case) coupled with an AJB mid-low WR2 season to see him slip into the 14-15 range.

 

[barackdhouse]

Honestly if he has even a modest WR1 season (for the Titans), with 75 and 1000 and x TDs, he will maintain his top 10 status in dynasty.

Another thought on the Titans run first approach. They obviously found something special in Henry that works for them, and Tannehill seemed to be the perfect complement to it with AJ and the other receiving options. But as much as curbstomping opponents with Henry proved effective, the one-sided nature of it ultimately doomed them. They needed to open things up more, even though their bread and butter did actually accomplish some amazing things. Why would you move away from that? Well my rambling thought here is that I think they know that if they really want to take it to the next level, they are going to need to open it up. So I am expecting a higher pass % this year, with the obvious caveat that this is still a run first "curbstomp with Henry" team and it should be. I don't know what a modest increase in targets would look like but if it materializes, along with presumed development by AJ himself, it could be a special season. In front of cardboard cutouts of fans and PA systems cranked in. 

And of course, "AJ Brown", now THAT is the name of a wide receiver. 

 

[Vandelay]

The question seems flawed anyway.  What does the top 10 status even matter?  If you have AJ and you're not a believer, you're looking to sell high prior to the season.  If you're a believer, you're not selling low if he has a so-so year.  Seems like an irrelevant thing to ask.

His rookie performance gave owners so much capital that he's basically insulated for a year.

 

[barackdhouse]

The question seems flawed anyway.  What does the top 10 status even matter?  If you have AJ and you're not a believer, you're looking to sell high prior to the season.  If you're a believer, you're not selling low if he has a so-so year.  Seems like an irrelevant thing to ask.

His rookie performance gave owners so much capital that he's basically insulated for a year.

Yeah fair point. "Top 10" makes for good article clickbait. I guess.

 

[tombonneau]

It's possible to believe in AJB, but not believe he belongs as a dynasty wr10; it's not just a "believer" or "non believer." Some owners may be willing to sell a solid WR if they think he is over valued or at a value peak. 

In my opinion, AJB's value is the highest now than it will be over the next several years, perhaps ever. His 2019 season is extremely likely his most efficient season of his career. The stats are compelling.

The result of an average regression means he would need to see about a 40% increase in volume just to repeat his WR30 performance from 2019.

"Sell high" means the player's value has peaked. That's where I believe AJ Brown is at. Too many people see "sell high" as an indicator that a player will completely bust the next year. That isnt what "sell high" actually means. 

I think he will be a solid WR for his career, and can be a decent high end fantasy WR2. If people are looking to cash in on the investment, this is a great opportunity considering an expected regression in efficiency in 2020.

I'd rather he regress on my roster than be TO 2.0 on someone else's.

 

[Cobbler1]

It's possible to believe in AJB, but not believe he belongs as a dynasty wr10; it's not just a "believer" or "non believer." Some owners may be willing to sell a solid WR if they think he is over valued or at a value peak. 

In my opinion, AJB's value is the highest now than it will be over the next several years, perhaps ever. His 2019 season is extremely likely his most efficient season of his career. The stats are compelling.

The result of an average regression means he would need to see about a 40% increase in volume just to repeat his WR30 performance from 2019.

"Sell high" means the player's value has peaked. That's where I believe AJ Brown is at. Too many people see "sell high" as an indicator that a player will completely bust the next year. That isnt what "sell high" actually means. 

I think he will be a solid WR for his career, and can be a decent high end fantasy WR2. If people are looking to cash in on the investment, this is a great opportunity considering an expected regression in efficiency in 2020.

When you say average regression what numbers are you regressing and to where? 

 

[Vandelay]

I'll link the article when it's posted, and if it's not posted I'll just post the article here! AJ Brown had an outlier season in 2019 from an efficiency standpoint for all wrs >50 targets dating back to 2000 (1643 eligible wide receiver seasons). Not a single wr had a second outlier season during those 20 years. There was an average regression following one of these outlier seasons, and that's the regression I am talking about. 

To put this into perspective, if AJ Brown has an average regression, and he receives the same number of targets as he did in 2019, his season will look almost identical to Chris Conley's 2019

Found the problem.

 

[Cobbler1]

I'll link the article when it's posted, and if it's not posted I'll just post the article here! AJ Brown had an outlier season in 2019 from an efficiency standpoint for all wrs >50 targets dating back to 2000 (1643 eligible wide receiver seasons). Not a single wr had a second outlier season during those 20 years. There was an average regression following one of these outlier seasons, and that's the regression I am talking about. 

To put this into perspective, if AJ Brown has an average regression, and he receives the same number of targets as he did in 2019, his season will look almost identical to Chris Conley's 2019

Cool always down to check out names and numbers.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It's possible to believe in AJB, but not believe he belongs as a dynasty wr10; it's not just a "believer" or "non believer." Some owners may be willing to sell a solid WR if they think he is over valued or at a value peak. 

In my opinion, AJB's value is the highest now than it will be over the next several years, perhaps ever. His 2019 season is extremely likely his most efficient season of his career. The stats are compelling.

The result of an average regression means he would need to see about a 40% increase in volume just to repeat his WR30 performance from 2019.

"Sell high" means the player's value has peaked. That's where I believe AJ Brown is at. Too many people see "sell high" as an indicator that a player will completely bust the next year. That isnt what "sell high" actually means. 

I think he will be a solid WR for his career, and can be a decent high end fantasy WR2. If people are looking to cash in on the investment, this is a great opportunity considering an expected regression in efficiency in 2020.

I'll link the article when it's posted, and if it's not posted I'll just post the article here! AJ Brown had an outlier season in 2019 from an efficiency standpoint for all wrs >50 targets dating back to 2000 (1643 eligible wide receiver seasons). Not a single wr had a second outlier season during those 20 years. There was an average regression following one of these outlier seasons, and that's the regression I am talking about. 

To put this into perspective, if AJ Brown has an average regression, and he receives the same number of targets as he did in 2019, his season will look almost identical to Chris Conley's 2019

I think this is all an extremely short sighted line of thinking.

A soild WR that can be a decent high end WR2?  The guy has all of the exact traits people look for in alpha WR1's.  More so than any player in the league that's not already reached that status for their team.  So why would his likely upside be a fantasy WR2?  Because the Titans ran the ball a lot in 2019?

Situations change fast in the NFL.  One year ago at this time everyone was discounting any Seahawks WR because Russ only threw the ball a league low 427 times in 2018 and the Seahawks just wanted to run run run.  Then Wilson's attempts increased by more than 100 in 2019.

Yeah the Titans want to run the ball.  So does every team.  What happens if Henry gets banged up?  Or the O-line doesn't play as well?  Or the defense doesn't play as well?  It's 50-50 that the Titans are going to end up being anywhere near as run heavy of a team THIS YEAR.  Forget about 3 years from now.

You mentioned AJB's insane efficiency and the likelihood that this will end up being the most efficient season of his career.  But your mistake is applying a reduced efficiency to the same lousy 84 targets.  Just as his rookie year will likely be the most efficient of his career, 84 targets will likely be the fewest of his career, by far.  The Titans likely won't run as well, he's coming out of the gates as the WR1 over Corey Davis this time, rookies naturally increase target share in year 2, and Tannehill is there for a full season.  There are a zillion reasons why.  Even just the Tannehill factor alone had him on pace for just over 100 targets per 16 games in the games he played with Tannehill, and the other factors can easily add quite a bit to that.

And again, that's just 1 year.  This is dynasty.  3 years from now this Titans offense will be nothing like it was in 2019.

This whole discussion is an exact repeat of the discussion after Alvin Kamara's rookie year.  Historically great efficiency that had nowhere to go but down.  And it did.  But touches/targets went up and voila, he's still considered a top 5-6 dynasty running back.

Maybe AJ Brown will be a huge bust.  Maybe he'll never grow into an alpha WR1.  But if either of those things happen they will be because he wasn't good enough.  It won't be because the Titans are still banging Derrick Henry up the middle 35 times a game in 2030.

If I'm buying AJ Brown I'm buying the talent, and I think he has it in spades.  If he doesn't then oh well, I was wrong, but I'm not worried about Tennessee long term.  Sometimes historic efficiency is an indicator that a guy is pretty good at football.  And that's what I'm buying with AJB.  I would be just as big a buyer if he'd gone for 50-800-4 on 84 targets last year (still a great rookie year), so why would I punish him for doing even better than that?

 

[Vandelay]

I'm not saying he is Chris Conley or will perform the same, just stating the stats. Conley had 90 receptions and about 1.74 fantasy points per target. AJ Brown had 84 targets and 2.43 fantasy points per target in 2019. If he regresses to 1.74 fantasy points per target (which is the average regression) and keeps 84 targets... well you do the math.

JuJu had the same (2.43) his rookie year and regressed to about 1.66 and 1.77 the following two years (I might have that backwards). 

I expect AJ Brown's targets to go up, but if his YPT goes down, then his targets have to go WAY up (potentially top 10 in the NFL) to just finish as a mid to high wr2. Is there enough volume in a run first offense that passed 2nd least in the nfl last year to overcome an efficiency regression? Maybe, but AJ Brown will have to buck the trends. 

You can get JuJu a lot cheaper today than 2 years ago... 

In May of 2018, JuJu's startup adp was 3.3.

In May of 2020, its 2.8.  Both per Mizelle.

His value, much like AJB coming off his excellent rookie year, was insulated enough to withstand a worst case scenario season and still be a second round startup pick.

I'm not sure when Conley had 90 receptions either.

Either way, I suspect there are some latent deficiencies in a statistic as nebulous as "average regression".