WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (1 Viewer)

[Football Jones]

Everything is checks & balances. KC just saw Hunt go to a competitor.

The Chiefs will likely look at this differently than Hunt. Different position, different value to team, etc. No way they cut him unless it's absolutely necessary. Depending on the details, it can be spun (we don't know the exact circumstances yet or even what happened).

That said, I'm not defending Hill. If true, it's despicable. This is the NFL, though. Millions & millions of dollars are on the line, not to mention championships.

 

[menobrown]

If he stays with Chiefs he will be overvalued because after a few months nobody will cook is off field risk into his value properly so I'll be trading him at that point. 

You obviously have reached a guilty verdict already.  It does not look good for him but if he's not guilty, no charges are filed, this turns out to just be an case closed investigation how did his risk get any worse then it did two weeks ago when KC was working on making him the highest paid WR in the game?  Nothing, that's what.  You are basing everything you are saying about his value and KC cutting him on assumption he actually did something and that may be a safe assumption but it's still an assumption right now.

 

[Gandalf]

Just posted message after you wrote this saying I don't buy that narrative one iota.

What do you think it was then? KC will need to be consistent I would think.

If any of this is true, Hill won’t be playing NFL football for a long time.

 

[menobrown]

What do you think it was then? KC will need to be consistent I would think.

A little difference in the Hunt and Rice releases but ultimately the video. 

The video on Hunt proved his guilt so maybe I'll backtrack on that some and say KC does have a leg to stand on if they believed Hunt did nothing wrong so saying once they knew they were cutting him because he was lying has a little merit. But for me to believe that, I have to believe that TMZ or whatever outlet obtained that video and the KC Chiefs had no idea of it's existence. I don't really believe that, but I'll concede it's possible.

The Ravens cut Rice because the PR from the video was to much to take. They say because he lied but video already showed him carrying her unconscious body out of the elevator and he was already serving a suspension, apologized to team, all that stuff. How exactly did the Ravens think she got unconscious? Saying they cut him because he lied was horse crap.

 

[fruity pebbles]

You obviously have reached a guilty verdict already.  It does not look good for him but if he's not guilty, no charges are filed, this turns out to just be an case closed investigation how did his risk get any worse then it did two weeks ago when KC was working on making him the highest paid WR in the game?  Nothing, that's what.  You are basing everything you are saying about his value and KC cutting him on assumption he actually did something and that may be a safe assumption but it's still an assumption right now.

Disagree. I think his value drops some even if he's not charged. There was a lot of smoke here. Whether it can be proven or not is another question. I wouldn't want the risk of him at his previous cost. Personally, I'd take Hop, Adams, Odell, Evans, Thomas, JuJu over him. He'd be in the next grouping. I kinda bought into his redemption story and regardless of what happens, I no longer do. My personal feeling.

 

[kittenmittens]

What do you think it was then? KC will need to be consistent I would think.

If any of this is true, Hill won’t be playing NFL football for a long time.

The video, probably 

 

[voiceofunreason]

Correct. The other reason Hunt was cut had to do with misrepresenting things to the Chiefs when they asked him about what happened. 

That’s what they said publicly, so if you take them at their word. If he told them he tried to beat some girl up and his friends wouldn’t let him I’m sure they’d have been fine with it.

 

[menobrown]

Disagree. I think his value drops some even if he's not charged. There was a lot of smoke here.

Sorry just don't see any merit for that at all and boggles my mind that anyone would. If he did nothing, nothing changed. I just can't see it any other way, I don't even get this thought process. If the smoke has merit, he'll get charged, if not their is nothing to see here.

 

[Interseptopus]

The video, probably 

absolutely. Push someone into a girl and then give a half effort kick to her rear end... if it's on tape you're gone.

Break your childs arm from disciplining too hard due to anger management issues, it's okay if no charges are filed and no video. 

 

[voiceofunreason]

Everything is checks & balances. KC just saw Hunt go to a competitor.

The Chiefs will likely look at this differently than Hunt. Different position, different value to team, etc. No way they cut him unless it's absolutely necessary. Depending on the details, it can be spun (we don't know the exact circumstances yet or even what happened).

That said, I'm not defending Hill. If it's true, it's despicable. This is the NFL, though. Millions & millions of dollars are on the line, not to mention championships.

The chiefs are a billion dollar business. When an employee makes that business look bad and could lose them more money than make them, they are fired. Same reason the Vikings suspended ap after initially saying they wouldn’t. Unless he proves he’s innocent I think he’s done in KC and not playing next year at a minimum.

 

[voiceofunreason]

Sorry just don't see any merit for that at all and boggles my mind that anyone would. If he did nothing, nothing changed. I just can't see it any other way, I don't even get this thought process. If the smoke has merit, he'll get charged, if not their is nothing to see here.

So if his girlfriend covers for him and the DA can’t make a case you actually think this blows over? This is an incredibly naive way of looking at it. Seems more like you made you stance 20 pages ago and now will defend that no matter how ridiculous you get.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Sorry just don't see any merit for that at all and boggles my mind that anyone would. If he did nothing, nothing changed. I just can't see it any other way, I don't even get this thought process. If the smoke has merit, he'll get charged, if not their is nothing to see here.

Child abuse is hard to prove. Guess there’s a big difference to me whether he’s proven innocent vs the charges unable to be proven. I’d rather opt for the safer choices since the top 6 odd WRs are all capable of similar numbers. This puts additional risk on him imo.

 

[trader jake]

Sorry just don't see any merit for that at all and boggles my mind that anyone would. If he did nothing, nothing changed. I just can't see it any other way, I don't even get this thought process. If the smoke has merit, he'll get charged, if not their is nothing to see here.

Take your pick: supply/demand or risk/reward .  The demand for Tyreek Hill in fantasy football will be less whether or not anything is proven/he is suspended/etc and the risk/reward math owners will be doing in their heads will lower his ff value no matter the outcome here.

Same applies to injury risk to players while in college.  If that player stays healthy in the NFL that injury risk is out of sight, out of mind...until the player suffers an injury (or a big injury scare).  Then all those old stories/thoughts pop back up and serve as a fresh reminder that the risk never really went away and is again factored into that ff player's value moving forward.

 

[menobrown]

Take your pick: supply/demand or risk/reward .  The demand for Tyreek Hill in fantasy football will be less whether or not anything is proven/he is suspended/etc and the risk/reward math owners will be doing in their heads will lower his ff value no matter the outcome here.

If he did nothing how is the risk increased?

I think all of you are confusing the fact you think he did something with what the actual outcome would be if after an investigation it's shown he did nothing that merits a charge. To caught up in the now and not seeing how this could unfold for him if nothing comes of it.

 

[menobrown]

Child abuse is hard to prove. Guess there’s a big difference to me whether he’s proven innocent vs the charges unable to be proven.

I should have clarified earlier. If he's charged he loses value, even if he ends up beating the charge. I think he will be charged and this will all be a moot point but I  just contend if after an investigation by DA and child services they drop the case he'd be unscathed as a risk to me. But again all probably a moot point because at this point I'd be pretty surprised if he is not charged.

 

[kittenmittens]

absolutely. Push someone into a girl and then give a half effort kick to her rear end... if it's on tape you're gone.

Break your childs arm from disciplining too hard due to anger management issues, it's okay if no charges are filed and no video. 

I just meant I think it was the video, not the lying, that got Hunt cut.  The Cheifs would have to be willfully ignorant or lazy not to know what happened with Hunt.  They knew he lied before the video.  The video is what ultimately got him cut because they couldn't pretend not to know anymore, plus the bad PR of course. 

These situations are way different, so I hope there is no video required for discipline in this case... Provided the allegations are true of course. 

 

[-OZ-]

Sorry just don't see any merit for that at all and boggles my mind that anyone would. If he did nothing, nothing changed. I just can't see it any other way, I don't even get this thought process. If the smoke has merit, he'll get charged, if not their is nothing to see here.

If he did nothing how is the risk increased?

I think all of you are confusing the fact you think he did something with what the actual outcome would be if after an investigation it's shown he did nothing that merits a charge. To caught up in the now and not seeing how this could unfold for him if nothing comes of it.

Nothing really would change but the FF guys are reminded that he has a history and decrease his perceived value a bit. Or maybe he'll take this as a reminder to keep on the right path. 

 

[Foosball God]

If he did nothing how is the risk increased?

I think all of you are confusing the fact you think he did something with what the actual outcome would be if after an investigation it's shown he did nothing that merits a charge. To caught up in the now and not seeing how this could unfold for him if nothing comes of it.

The only way he comes out with unchanged risk is if he wasn't in the house when the kid's arm was broken (If that report is accurate).  Any other situation still has a cloud over him imo and shortens the leash even further.

 

[JohnnyU]

I don't believe the NFL is bound by the legal system outcomes. 

 

[Football Jones]

The chiefs are a billion dollar business. When an employee makes that business look bad and could lose them more money than make them, they are fired. Same reason the Vikings suspended ap after initially saying they wouldn’t. Unless he proves he’s innocent I think he’s done in KC and not playing next year at a minimum.

Hill doesn't have to prove anything. We'll know more once the investigation is done.

Sponsors are important, but winning is more important. Depending on the details, cutting him would be the last resort.

Despite what you & I think of it (if true), it's not a cut & dried decision as far as an NFL franchise.

 

[Football Jones]

I don't believe the NFL is bound by the legal system outcomes. 

They aren't so he could possibly get a suspension despite no charges being filed.

 

[bostonfred]

If he did nothing how is the risk increased?

He will be under intense scrutiny from the media and fans and right or wrong there will be people who believe he is guilty and mess with him.  Media coverage will be unflattering. His teammates will be asked a million questions about his temperament.  Any sideline blow up or complaining will be overanalyzed to death.  Look at former media darlings like Antonio, obj, Chad johnson - when the media turns they turn quick.  Some people may aggravate him hoping to sell video of his reaction to TMZ. Any future news or rumors will be believed more easily by people in your league, which hurts his exit value for a while. 

 

[menobrown]

He will be under intense scrutiny from the media and fans and right or wrong there will be people who believe he is guilty and mess with him.  Media coverage will be unflattering. His teammates will be asked a million questions about his temperament.  Any sideline blow up or complaining will be overanalyzed to death.  Look at former media darlings like Antonio, obj, Chad johnson - when the media turns they turn quick.  Some people may aggravate him hoping to sell video of his reaction to TMZ. Any future news or rumors will be believed more easily by people in your league, which hurts his exit value for a while. 

None of that applies if he did nothing.

 

[bostonfred]

None of that applies if he did nothing.

Good morning sir. The year is 2019. You've been asleep a very long time.  I should tell you some things have changed in the past 50 years. 

 

[barackdhouse]

Sorry just don't see any merit for that at all and boggles my mind that anyone would. If he did nothing, nothing changed. I just can't see it any other way, I don't even get this thought process. If the smoke has merit, he'll get charged, if not their is nothing to see here.

If I'm reading this all correctly (other posts too), you're saying *you* wouldn't devalue him. And maybe you'd be right. But his value *will* drop in terms of the market value. Just because you wouldn't doesn't mean the fantasy world wouldn't. 

 

[Milkman]

Sorry just don't see any merit for that at all and boggles my mind that anyone would. If he did nothing, nothing changed. I just can't see it any other way, I don't even get this thought process. If the smoke has merit, he'll get charged, if not their is nothing to see here.

Yeah that's not true. They might not have enough to charge him but he still might have done it. If I don't like the risk and can get good value for him sometime during the season.....what's the problem?

 

[Interseptopus]

yes... his value absolutely decreases. 

It's not like every NFL player is investigated at some time for child abuse. I missed the story of Drew Brees breaking his children's arms. There is a reason Hill is being investigated. He has a history, and he reportedly has anger issues according to at least 1 person close to the situation. 

This absolutely decreases his value, because even if he can't be proven to have done this, theres a good chance he did (see OJ). This means, contrary to the beliefs of some, he hasn't turned his life around (he just hasn't been caught yet), and it's only a matter of time before it blows up in his face. 

I want nothing to do with Hill, even if he is not charged, unless I got him so cheap

 

[kutta]

I agree with pretty much everyone. Decrease in value pretty much no matter what.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

with the QB he has....if this turns out to be nothing....I'm not sure there is another WR I'd rather have for the next 5+ years.....

 

[Interseptopus]

with the QB he has....if this turns out to be nothing....I'm not sure there is another WR I'd rather have for the next 5+ years.....

IMO it's got a next to zero chance to be nothing. however there is a chance it's not able to be prosecuted. two different things

 

[menobrown]

Good morning sir. The year is 2019. You've been asleep a very long time.  I should tell you some things have changed in the past 50 years. 

I'm not the one that needs a wake up call and frankly I'm disappointed at the intelligence level of people in this thread who can't grasp the difference between being vindicated vs currently investigated.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I'm not the one that needs a wake up call and frankly I'm disappointed at the intelligence level of people in this thread who can't grasp the difference between being vindicated vs currently investigated.

Dude, people are accurately speculating his value takes a slight hit even if innocent. Has nothing to do with anyone’s intelligence. It’s a gauge of public perception. If you can’t see that then I question your experience with dynasty. (Some) Owners will absolutely devalue him no matter the outcome. That’s a guarantee. Right or wrong it is what it is. 

 

[menobrown]

Dude, people are accurately speculating his value takes a slight hit even if innocent. Has nothing to do with anyone’s intelligence. It’s a gauge of public perception. If you can’t see that then I question your experience with dynasty. (Some) Owners will absolutely devalue him no matter the outcome. That’s a guarantee. Right or wrong it is what it is. 

Well if you'd like me to throw out my dynasty track record let me know specifics you'd like or PM and I'll deflate that take in a second. That's a guarantee.

.

People in this thread can't differentiate between the most likely outcome that his career and value are both in jeopardy because he did something to his son versus what the reality for his career and value will be if in fact he is totally vindicated.  I'm simply amazed that people think if he was actually totally vindicated, so that in the end the only negative thing we ever knew him to do was what he did to the mother of his child  in 2014 or 2015 that all of sudden his value is lost over what would have been a false accusation/charge. Amazing.

Again I think he did something, I think he's going down. This will all be a moot point regarding his value if vindicated but if so he goes right back to being in discussion for top dynasty WR and in everyone's top 5.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

I'm not the one that needs a wake up call and frankly I'm disappointed at the intelligence level of people in this thread who can't grasp the difference between being vindicated vs currently investigated.

You have nerve calling out people's intelligence when you keep posting the same thing over and over. 

 

[kutta]

Well if you'd like me to throw out my dynasty track record let me know specifics you'd like or PM and I'll deflate that take in a second. That's a guarantee.

.

People in this thread can't differentiate between the most likely outcome that his career and value are both in jeopardy because he did something to his son versus what the reality for his career and value will be if in fact he is totally vindicated.  I'm simply amazed that people think if he was actually totally vindicated, so that in the end the only negative thing we ever knew him to do was what he did to the mother of his child  in 2014 or 2015 that all of sudden his value is lost over what would have been a false accusation/charge. Amazing.

Again I think he did something, I think he's going down. This will all be a moot point regarding his value if vindicated but if so he goes right back to being in discussion for top dynasty WR and in everyone's top 5.

Because "total vindication" is never total vindication. The guy has a bad track record already. Even if he is "totally vindicated," the majority of people will still think there's a possibility that he did something wrong and got away with it. This will also just serve as a reminder that he's one bad decision away from a lengthy suspension.

A lot of dynasty players are risk averse. You obviously are not. But value takes a hit if other people think it should, not if you think it should. And so far, every dynasty person in this thread (and I'm sure we can all compare resumes) except you thinks his value will take a hit. So there's obviously something to that.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

I'm thinking KC is putting that record breaking contract in the trash, no matter what the outcome.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

Well if you'd like me to throw out my dynasty track record let me know specifics you'd like or PM and I'll deflate that take in a second. That's a guarantee.

.

You realize you sound like a little kid, right?

 

[menobrown]

Can anyone give me the name of a player in the NFL who was accused of something but no charges were filed and the NFL did not suspend them and that player lost dynasty value over the accusation? Just name me one player not charged or suspended who lost value due toan accusation which was shown to have no merit. Just one people. Come on, I'm sure you can all put your minds together and come up with one can't you.

 

[Jello_Biafra]

Can anyone give me the name of a player in the NFL who was accused of something but no charges were filed and the NFL did not suspend them and that player lost dynasty value over the accusation? Just name me one player not charged or suspended who lost value due toan accusation which was shown to have no merit. Just one people. Come on, I'm sure you can all put your minds together and come up with one can't you.

How about this? Name another player who choked his pregnant girlfriend? Come on, you can do it.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Well if you'd like me to throw out my dynasty track record let me know specifics you'd like or PM and I'll deflate that take in a second. That's a guarantee.

.

People in this thread can't differentiate between the most likely outcome that his career and value are both in jeopardy because he did something to his son versus what the reality for his career and value will be if in fact he is totally vindicated.  I'm simply amazed that people think if he was actually totally vindicated, so that in the end the only negative thing we ever knew him to do was what he did to the mother of his child  in 2014 or 2015 that all of sudden his value is lost over what would have been a false accusation/charge. Amazing.

Again I think he did something, I think he's going down. This will all be a moot point regarding his value if vindicated but if so he goes right back to being in discussion for top dynasty WR and in everyone's top 5.

People in this thread are predicting future market sentiment, nothing more. It has nothing to do with our individual valuations of Hill (certainly not mine).  With your extensive dynasty track record I'm amazed you don't understand how perception works and that a good chunk of dynasty owners are extremely risk averse.  The fact of the matter is that right now Tyreek's value has taken a hit and no matter the outcome - even complete vindication - there will still be a percentage of dynasty owners who will not touch him.  This has nothing to do with the intelligence of anyone here in the SP.  Full vindication would be great for him but there will still be a percentage of dynasty owners who will think he got away with something which will subsequently decrease his overall value.  His value will not be determined by what YOU, menobrown, thinks it should be, no matter how unintelligent the rest of the dynasty community is.  Are you really having that hard of a time understanding this? 

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Can anyone give me the name of a player in the NFL who was accused of something but no charges were filed and the NFL did not suspend them and that player lost dynasty value over the accusation? Just name me one player not charged or suspended who lost value due toan accusation which was shown to have no merit. Just one people. Come on, I'm sure you can all put your minds together and come up with one can't you.

Oh, so you just like to argue.  Neat.  That is the most ridiculous request. How will anyone prove 'lost value'?  Enjoy arguing more about pointless stuff.  I'm outtie.

 

[menobrown]

Oh, so you just like to argue.  Neat.  That is the most ridiculous request. How will anyone prove 'lost value'?  Enjoy arguing more about pointless stuff.  I'm outtie.

I'll take that as a no

 

[kutta]

When I was selling my business, my advisor said, "The business isn't worth what you think it is. It's worth what someone else will pay for it."

I don't think there's any doubt that the number of people who would pay top dollar for Hill has dropped, no matter what happens here. That's the point. The market got smaller, so his value will drop. 

 

[kutta]

Can anyone give me the name of a player in the NFL who was accused of something but no charges were filed and the NFL did not suspend them and that player lost dynasty value over the accusation? Just name me one player not charged or suspended who lost value due toan accusation which was shown to have no merit. Just one people. Come on, I'm sure you can all put your minds together and come up with one can't you.

Can you give us an example of this same situation (or very similar) where the player didn't lose dynasty value?

Guy with a track record of domestic violence who is once again accused of it but is innocent and doesn't lose any value. I'm sure you can find one such example.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I'll take that as a no

OBJ. There was an image from last summer of him on a bed with a woman. It appeared they were doing cocaine. No proof. No charges. No suspensions. His value decreased in my leagues.

 

[bostonfred]

Can anyone give me the name of a player in the NFL who was accused of something but no charges were filed and the NFL did not suspend them and that player lost dynasty value over the accusation? Just name me one player not charged or suspended who lost value due toan accusation which was shown to have no merit. Just one people. Come on, I'm sure you can all put your minds together and come up with one can't you.

I'll give you the most relevant one. 

Kareem Hunt 

Offseason allegations that he hit a woman in a hotel lobby, met with the team, totally vindicated.  Played two months at an elite level.  Released midseason when video came out.  

That's the one on people's minds right now, and now the same team has a guy that might be "totally exonerated" again, but how can you trust it? 

 

[menobrown]

Can you give us an example of this same situation (or very similar) where the player didn't lose dynasty value?

Guy with a track record of domestic violence who is once again accused of it but is innocent and doesn't lose any value. I'm sure you can find one such example.

I got you down for a no.

 

[NJ]

Can anyone give me the name of a player in the NFL who was accused of something but no charges were filed and the NFL did not suspend them and that player lost dynasty value over the accusation? Just name me one player not charged or suspended who lost value due toan accusation which was shown to have no merit. 

It's already been explained numerous times that nobody is ever totally vindicated once accusations like this are made.  Like it or not there are going to be people that see him as more of a risk after this even if he never gets charged.  A players value isnt what you see it as, its what others are willing to pay and if there are less interested buyers his value goes down.  Simple supply and demand.  If nothing else this brought his prior domestic violence incident to the forefront and is now fresh in peoples minds.  That is going to be a factor in people deciding whether or not to trade for him going forward and it will take a while to recover from that even if he were somehow totally vindicated which is almost impossible at this point.

 

[menobrown]

OBJ. There was an image from last summer of him on a bed with a woman. It appeared they were doing cocaine. No proof. No charges. No suspensions. His value decreased in my leagues.

And do you think that hurts his value today?

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

And do you think that hurts his value today?

Absolutely.