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Dynasty: The luster has faded or time to buy low(er) (1 Viewer)

Uncle Grandpa

Uncle Grandpa

Footballguy
Recency bias is a huge element of fantasy football, and so I imagine the opinion on these early-season underperformers has changed since the beginning of the year. Has your long-term opinion changed on these guys or are you looking to potentially buy low on...

1. Andrew Luck - Injury and a crappy offensive line have tanked his production.

2. Alshon Jeffery - Hasn't been on the field and his team is deteriorating around him.

3. Beckham Jr. - He's obviously regressed to normalcy from last year's epic performance.

4. Mike Evans - A rookie QB and offense in general are hurting his numbers.

5. Sammy Watkins - An elite talent, but will he ever be an elite fantasy asset in Buffalo?

6. Jimmy Graham - Concerns that being in Seattle would limit his upside have been validated thus far.

7. Calvin Johnson - Bad offense and no longer force-fed by Stafford.

 
Not sure owners are going to budge on the top 3.

#4 is questionable.

#5 and #6 are legit due to their circumstances.

#7 might be a trap for the buyer.

 
I'm not looking to buy Calvin or Graham. The rest of these guys I would absolutely buy if the owner wanted to move them at diminished value, so I'd "buy low" on them if given the chance.

 
Shutout said:
Not sure owners are going to budge on the top 3.

#4 is questionable.

#5 and #6 are legit due to their circumstances.

#7 might be a trap for the buyer.
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I agree. 5 & 6 are probably the only true buy low options on that list and even then the buyer assumes quite a bit of risk based on their situations.

 
Agree with what has been said. I guess I'm still not 100% convinced Watkins is an elite talent. He probably is, but his penchant for injuries combined with the offensive situation in Buffalo hasn't given us a chance to see it. Calvin owners will continue to overvalue him. He's on the downward slope and I think it may be steeper than we anticipate. Graham is great but his situation stinks. He needs to go somewhere else to recapture his potential.

 
I'm surprised by the consensus thoughts on Jeffery thus far. I know as an Alshon owner I'm becoming a little disenchanted and not sure I'd require the same asking price I would before the season started.

 
Uncle Grandpa said:
Recency bias is a huge element of fantasy football, and so I imagine the opinion on these early-season underperformers has changed since the beginning of the year. Has your long-term opinion changed on these guys or are you looking to potentially buy low on...

1. Andrew Luck - Injury and a crappy offensive line have tanked his production.

2. Alshon Jeffery - Hasn't been on the field and his team is deteriorating around him.

3. Beckham Jr. - He's obviously regressed to normalcy from last year's epic performance.

4. Mike Evans - A rookie QB and offense in general are hurting his numbers.

5. Sammy Watkins - An elite talent, but will he ever be an elite fantasy asset in Buffalo?

6. Jimmy Graham - Concerns that being in Seattle would limit his upside have been validated thus far.

7. Calvin Johnson - Bad offense and no longer force-fed by Stafford.
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1 - No change on Luck

2 - Great buy low but if I owned my view hasn't changed. This will be a lost season for him and all Bears and may struggle next year with a rookie QB, but the talent is still there. Still, he drops a tier in my valuation.

3 - No change in my mind, then again I wasn't going crazy anointing him the #1 dynasty asset after 8 games either. Still a top tier dyno WR though.

4 - Will be fine. Again may be a lost year though.

5 - Of this list I'm most worried. No one really talks about it but he's injured a lot. He missed several games last year and on his way this year too. I'd be more worried about that then the situation as I think Buffalo is on the rise once healthy.

6 - Being asked to block so much just kills his value and seems like Seattle won't change their mind on that. He'll have to suffer and move on but may be over 30 before that happens. I'd sell for what I could get honestly.

7 - The end if near. Lions look horrible as does Stafford. Calvin in the past has always got his anyway no matter how bad the Lions were but Stafford isn't tossing the rock for 5000+ yards anymore and Calvin's not getting any younger.

 
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3 - No change in my mind, then again I wasn't going crazy anointing him the #1 dynasty asset after 8 games either. Still a top tier dyno WR though.
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Had an offer for me to give Cooper and my 1st for Beckham and couldn't do it. Cooper seems like just as good of a receiver and is not a head case.

 
Ilov80s said:
Is ODB really a headcase? As star WRs go, he seems pretty normal.
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I don't know about head case but he seems like a baby at times with all the complaining he's constantly doing on the field.

 
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To me, this is all situational. If there is an owner looking to make a run, you might be able to pry some of the guys like Jeffrey and Evans who may not return even next year due to factors outside of their control. Similarly, moving for someone like Johnson if the owner in your league is stuck rebuilding might yield benefits. I'd avoid Graham as I don't think his value has dropped enough. Graham strikes me as the kind of player an owner stubbornly holds onto despite clear evidence that his role has changed significantly. Unlike top WRs who can flourish even with average QBs and not so friendly systems (Maclin), TEs need the right system (and OL strength) to put up monster stats like Graham has done.

 
Uncle Grandpa said:
7. Calvin Johnson - Bad offense and no longer force-fed by Stafford.
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Fifth in targets. (4th if you don't include T.Y.'s last night.) Depth of target is obviously way down. Is it Caldwell, Stafford, or Johnson? All 3 but in that order.

 
johnadams said:
Graham strikes me as the kind of player an owner stubbornly holds onto despite clear evidence that his role has changed significantly.
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This is a factor that can't be emphasized enough in fantasy.

Every year, people and certain owners tend to "get married" to their players.

This year has been horrific in trying to get any trades, and I'm even talking about 0-4 owners and 1-3. Or is it just me????

Its almost as if they would rather blow the season, than try and give anything away whatsoever, if the possibility exists for said player to have a blow up week.

Its like this is a common thought in my leagues.......... "THIS GUY IS GOING TO BLOW UP, I CAN'T TRADE HIM AND HAVE HIM BLOW UP ON YOUR TEAM......NO WAY CAN I RISK THAT HAPPENING"

One guy in a league I am in, has 5 "startable" WRs, but only Forte, Lynch and Sankey for RBs, NO DEPTH WHATSOEVER and as we all know (him included) Lynch is not healthy.

I offered to trade him Rawls and a secondary piece (either the SEA kicker, or a bench RB) for one of his WRs.

I pointed out Jordan Matthews, since thats the one WR he seems least pleased with.

Its like I was asking for the Holy Grail. :D

When these things occur, I almost wish for injuries to said owners' players. Upon explaining to him why I made such an offer he eventually said "Yeah, it makes sense for me with my RB crew to do that, and I'm not even losing much at WR since I can start my other guys".

BUT YET HE STILL DECLINED.

Let him be happy starting Sankey getting 2 points a game later this season.

Graham strikes me as an odd scenario.

Its almost as if the team "gave" him a TD the other week to shut him up.

As an owner last year, I watched as Graham was slowly seemingly phased out of the gameplan for the Saints, and not only was he gimpy at times, he just seemed to be factored out late season.

There was one catch Graham had late in a game (late season last year), I remember him getting like a 15 yard catch near midfield, and he erupted this guttural ROAR after getting tackled, almost as if to say "Look at me!! I'm still a part of this offense" then the camera panned away.

Like he was trying to draw attention to himself.

I bought into Russell Wilson this year in my biggest league, figuring he would be the same old top 5 or so guy, with an additional weapon in Graham.

Needless to say, I am not happy with Wilson, and I think part of the blame is Graham too.

TZM

 
Uncle Grandpa said:
Recency bias is a huge element of fantasy football, and so I imagine the opinion on these early-season underperformers has changed since the beginning of the year. Has your long-term opinion changed on these guys or are you looking to potentially buy low on...

1. Andrew Luck - Injury and a crappy offensive line have tanked his production.

2. Alshon Jeffery - Hasn't been on the field and his team is deteriorating around him.

3. Beckham Jr. - He's obviously regressed to normalcy from last year's epic performance.

4. Mike Evans - A rookie QB and offense in general are hurting his numbers.

5. Sammy Watkins - An elite talent, but will he ever be an elite fantasy asset in Buffalo?

6. Jimmy Graham - Concerns that being in Seattle would limit his upside have been validated thus far.

7. Calvin Johnson - Bad offense and no longer force-fed by Stafford.
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1. I'm buying all day on Luck still. All day. Top-12 dynasty asset, in my opinion. (Though if I could get Cam at a good enough discount from him, I'd do that instead.)

2. Never thought he was as talented as the "top tier" guys. He kind of got ranked around there because he was so productive and so young, and that combination was rare. It's becoming less rare. So if Alshon is sliding a bit, it's not because my opinion of him is changing substantially, it's just that he's becoming a less-rare asset by the day.

3. Zero concerns about Beckham. Still on pace for 160 targets. Still looks great. There have been some missed connections and at times he and Eli haven't looked like they're on the same page, but I expect a big rebound. Dodds and Henry have him at WR4 in the top-200 forward. I'm totally on board with that. He's the #1 or #2 WR on my board, (along with Julio), in every scoring system and for every team type, (from the contenderiest of contenders to the rebuilderiest of rebuilders).

4. Evans is a buy. I can't say I've got zero concerns, but career improvement often happens in fits and starts. He's been hurt. Winston has been getting his feet wet. We haven't seen enough for me to be revising my initial impression of him very much one way or the other.

5. Watkins... is going to depend on the market. If people are willing to pay top-10 prices for him, I'm selling. If people are willing to let him go for WR20-type compensation, I'm buying.

6. Jimmy Graham is a huge sell. I think Greg Olsen is as valuable in dynasty at a fraction of the cost. Charles Clay is not too far behind, and is dramatically cheaper. I'd also prefer either Kelce or Eifert over Graham straight up by a good margin.

7. I'm guessing Calvin is probably a sell, but it'll depend on the market. I've got him as a mid-tier WR2. I suspect most leagues will have an owner who will give more than that for him. If not, I'm fine betting on talent, holding him, and riding it out. Larry Fitzgerald is showing that talent tends to resurface eventually.

 
Uncle Grandpa said:
Recency bias is a huge element of fantasy football, and so I imagine the opinion on these early-season underperformers has changed since the beginning of the year. Has your long-term opinion changed on these guys or are you looking to potentially buy low on...

1. Andrew Luck - Injury and a crappy offensive line have tanked his production.

2. Alshon Jeffery - Hasn't been on the field and his team is deteriorating around him.

3. Beckham Jr. - He's obviously regressed to normalcy from last year's epic performance.

4. Mike Evans - A rookie QB and offense in general are hurting his numbers.

5. Sammy Watkins - An elite talent, but will he ever be an elite fantasy asset in Buffalo?

6. Jimmy Graham - Concerns that being in Seattle would limit his upside have been validated thus far.

7. Calvin Johnson - Bad offense and no longer force-fed by Stafford.
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1. No one is selling Luck cheaply, I own him in 2 leagues and in one of the leagues he is the reason I am 1 - 3. Barring injury he will be a top 5 quarterback every year for the next 10 years.

2. I like this one and have been trying to buy him with no luck yet.

3. Same as Jeffery

4. Same as Jeffery and OBJ, actually got him in one league.

5. Same as the above, but haven't tried to get him yet. I think his price will fall more.

6. He will never be one of the top 2 unquestioned tight ends again, but most people still want top 3 tight end price for him. Pass

7. Hell no, he will still be a quality receiver, but people still want wr1 price for him.

 
TZMarkie said:
One guy in a league I am in, has 5 "startable" WRs, but only Forte, Lynch and Sankey for RBs, NO DEPTH WHATSOEVER and as we all know (him included) Lynch is not healthy.

I offered to trade him Rawls and a secondary piece (either the SEA kicker, or a bench RB) for one of his WRs.

I pointed out Jordan Matthews, since thats the one WR he seems least pleased with.

Its like I was asking for the Holy Grail. :D

TZM
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That is a terrible trade offer. Rawls has no real dynasty value, while Matthews is considered a top 20 dynasty WR. The other owner probably thought you weren't serious in offering a temp RB starter and a freaking KICKER for a dynasty WR2.

 
I just bought Johnson in a deep PPR/IDP Dynasty League that drafts "draft eligible" college players. I traded Emmanuel Sanders, 2016 1st and 2nd round college picks for Calvin Johnson.

 
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TZMarkie said:
johnadams said:
Graham strikes me as the kind of player an owner stubbornly holds onto despite clear evidence that his role has changed significantly.
Click to expand...
This is a factor that can't be emphasized enough in fantasy.

Every year, people and certain owners tend to "get married" to their players.

This year has been horrific in trying to get any trades, and I'm even talking about 0-4 owners and 1-3. Or is it just me????

Its almost as if they would rather blow the season, than try and give anything away whatsoever, if the possibility exists for said player to have a blow up week.

Its like this is a common thought in my leagues.......... "THIS GUY IS GOING TO BLOW UP, I CAN'T TRADE HIM AND HAVE HIM BLOW UP ON YOUR TEAM......NO WAY CAN I RISK THAT HAPPENING"

One guy in a league I am in, has 5 "startable" WRs, but only Forte, Lynch and Sankey for RBs, NO DEPTH WHATSOEVER and as we all know (him included) Lynch is not healthy.

I offered to trade him Rawls and a secondary piece (either the SEA kicker, or a bench RB) for one of his WRs.

I pointed out Jordan Matthews, since thats the one WR he seems least pleased with.

Its like I was asking for the Holy Grail. :D

When these things occur, I almost wish for injuries to said owners' players. Upon explaining to him why I made such an offer he eventually said "Yeah, it makes sense for me with my RB crew to do that, and I'm not even losing much at WR since I can start my other guys".

BUT YET HE STILL DECLINED.

Let him be happy starting Sankey getting 2 points a game later this season.

Graham strikes me as an odd scenario.

Its almost as if the team "gave" him a TD the other week to shut him up.

As an owner last year, I watched as Graham was slowly seemingly phased out of the gameplan for the Saints, and not only was he gimpy at times, he just seemed to be factored out late season.

There was one catch Graham had late in a game (late season last year), I remember him getting like a 15 yard catch near midfield, and he erupted this guttural ROAR after getting tackled, almost as if to say "Look at me!! I'm still a part of this offense" then the camera panned away.

Like he was trying to draw attention to himself.

I bought into Russell Wilson this year in my biggest league, figuring he would be the same old top 5 or so guy, with an additional weapon in Graham.

Needless to say, I am not happy with Wilson, and I think part of the blame is Graham too.

TZM
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The other owner obviously doesn't see how valuable a kicker can be in a trade.

 
Uncle Grandpa said:
Recency bias is a huge element of fantasy football, and so I imagine the opinion on these early-season underperformers has changed since the beginning of the year. Has your long-term opinion changed on these guys or are you looking to potentially buy low on...

1. Andrew Luck - Injury and a crappy offensive line have tanked his production.

2. Alshon Jeffery - Hasn't been on the field and his team is deteriorating around him.

3. Beckham Jr. - He's obviously regressed to normalcy from last year's epic performance.

4. Mike Evans - A rookie QB and offense in general are hurting his numbers.

5. Sammy Watkins - An elite talent, but will he ever be an elite fantasy asset in Buffalo?

6. Jimmy Graham - Concerns that being in Seattle would limit his upside have been validated thus far.

7. Calvin Johnson - Bad offense and no longer force-fed by Stafford.
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1. Luck maybe has lost a hair of value because he looks human now. I'd buy him at near full price.

2. Alshon Jeffrey - I've tried to get him and his owner will not budge.

3. Beckham Jr. - His owner still thinks he's worth a top 5 rb. I asked him who are the top 5 rb. He couldn't answer. I offered him Dion Lewis...he did not take kindly to that.

4. Mike Evans - Value unchanged.

5. Sammy Watkins - It's apparent to me that he's going to be hit or miss most weeks. I don't value him in the top 15 dynasty WRs anymore.

6. Jimmy Graham - Value is shot right in the ###. No better than any number of TEs.

7. Calvin Johnson - His value has flagged but his play really hasn't.

 
I sold Graham yesterday in a standard PPR league for a mid-late first and Jordan Cameron. Felt kind of dirty about it, but I had been planning to trade him eventually after grabbing Ebron in the rookie draft last year and WR/RB are stressed in that format, so I'm hoping I can land a good one with the pick. I have Graham in two other leagues and will probably hold. Statistically, he's one of the best receiving TEs in NFL history and, given the tendency of players at that position to age like wine (Gonzo, Witten, Gates), I find it hard to believe that his days as a superstar are over. He is still a 6'6" freak with WR speed. I think he will have his renaissance like Fitz is having now.

I'm not sure Jeffery was ever really an elite WR1. It's always hard to judge a guy when he plays opposite a genuine superstar (Marshall). You never quite know how he will respond when he's asked to carry the whole load himself. I'm not sure Jeffery can do it, but Kevin White (who I like a lot) might alleviate the pressure once he's active.

No significant change for me on Watkins and Evans from a year ago. Don't love their talent, but I like it. Struggles down to situational variables IMO. That being said, there's a similarity between Evans and Jeffery and you wonder how he'll fare when Jackson is gone.

Beckham...what can you say? Totally unsustainable rookie production. Doesn't benefit from the surprise element this year like he did last season when nobody knew how to handle him. Overexposed and perhaps overhyped. It's not surprising that his numbers have dropped. I still think he should be very good for a very long time. Don't know that he was ever "top 5 overall dynasty player" good though. The league is full of good young receivers at the moment.

Luck is a hold/buy for me. Once-per-decade prospect. Gotta ride out the lows to enjoy the highs.

Calvin is an interesting one. A bit like Graham in some ways except older and at a position that's generally less forgiving of age. Proven elite talent. Capable of single-handedly winning games and titles. Situation is a mess in Detroit. Is the old Calvin still hiding in there somewhere? It reminds me of Moss in Oakland a little bit before his NE explosion. Calvin is still really big and can probably still run. I doubt he's incapable of a top 5 WR season. I just think it's down to context. Stafford sucks and the play calling in Detroit is Playmobil. I think he's a buy for contenders who have a 2-3 year window. For rebuilding teams, I would cash out. You should be able to get something nice for him.

 
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I'd also throw Kevin White out there as a buy target. You never know exactly how these things will play out, but I had him as the #1 rookie skill prospect in this class and I think he has everything in his locker needed to be a perennial top 10 FF WR. DLF has him at WR22 and I consider him a strong buy at that price. He reminds me of Hopkins, Fitz, and Julio thrown into a blender.

 
EBF said:
I'd also throw Kevin White out there as a buy target. You never know exactly how these things will play out, but I had him as the #1 rookie skill prospect in this class and I think he has everything in his locker needed to be a perennial top 10 FF WR. DLF has him at WR22 and I consider him a strong buy at that price. He reminds me of Hopkins, Fitz, and Julio thrown into a blender.
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Did you go back and forth with Xue on this guy in the offseason? I can't recall.

 
EBF said:
Calvin is an interesting one. A bit like Graham in some ways except older and at a position that's generally less forgiving of age.
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Tight ends have historically aged much worse than WRs. Sure, you can mention Gonzo, Witten, and Gates, but (A) mentioning Gonzo is akin to mentioning Rice when discussing receiver aging patterns, (B) Witten/Gates aren't *that* old yet, (we saw Gates succeed at age 34, and Witten has had a good start to his age 33 season, but it's not at all uncommon for WRs to still be great at 33 and 34, either), and © you start to run out of examples reeeeeeeeeeeally quickly at tight end once you get past the four modern HoFers at the position (Gonzo, Sharpe, Witten, Gates).

Since 1985, here is a complete and total list of every TE who was an above-average fantasy starter at age 34 or older: Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Antonio Gates, Wesley Walls, Pete Metzelaars.

Here's that same list at wide receiver: Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, Cris Carter, Irving Fryar, Tim Brown, Marvin Harrison, Joey Galloway, Drew Hill, J.T. Smith, Reggie Wayne, Rod Smith, Art Monk, James Lofton, Jimmy Smith, Bobby Engram, Derrick Mason, Charlie Joiner, Keenan McCardell, Donald Driver, Joe Horn, Nat Moore, Isaac Bruce, Mark Clayton.

There's nothing special about age 34. I picked that one at random because that's how old Gates was during his, (possibly-PED-aided), renaissance last year. We could repeat the process for age 33, 32, 35, 36, really any age you want to pick and the results will be the same. Very few TEs making it that far, a whole lot of WRs doing the same.

When I was working on my historical aging patterns stuff this offseason, I deliberately created a separate TE model that lumped TEs and WRs together to try to model TE aging, simply because the modern TE bears more resemblance to the longer-careered WRs than to their shorter-careered predecessors.

 
Uncle Grandpa said:
EBF said:
I'd also throw Kevin White out there as a buy target. You never know exactly how these things will play out, but I had him as the #1 rookie skill prospect in this class and I think he has everything in his locker needed to be a perennial top 10 FF WR. DLF has him at WR22 and I consider him a strong buy at that price. He reminds me of Hopkins, Fitz, and Julio thrown into a blender.
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Did you go back and forth with Xue on this guy in the offseason? I can't recall.
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Not that I remember. I try to avoid the long protracted debates.

White is a player who checks a lot of boxes. I think his age was an issue for some people, but at the end of the day he was a top 10 pick at the most valuable position in FF and what I see on the field looks like the real deal to me. Just hoping the injuries aren't a long-term problem.

 
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Adam Harstad said:
EBF said:
Calvin is an interesting one. A bit like Graham in some ways except older and at a position that's generally less forgiving of age.
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Tight ends have historically aged much worse than WRs. Sure, you can mention Gonzo, Witten, and Gates, but (A) mentioning Gonzo is akin to mentioning Rice when discussing receiver aging patterns, (B) Witten/Gates aren't *that* old yet, (we saw Gates succeed at age 34, and Witten has had a good start to his age 33 season, but it's not at all uncommon for WRs to still be great at 33 and 34, either), and © you start to run out of examples reeeeeeeeeeeally quickly at tight end once you get past the four modern HoFers at the position (Gonzo, Sharpe, Witten, Gates).

Since 1985, here is a complete and total list of every TE who was an above-average fantasy starter at age 34 or older: Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Antonio Gates, Wesley Walls, Pete Metzelaars.

Here's that same list at wide receiver: Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, Cris Carter, Irving Fryar, Tim Brown, Marvin Harrison, Joey Galloway, Drew Hill, J.T. Smith, Reggie Wayne, Rod Smith, Art Monk, James Lofton, Jimmy Smith, Bobby Engram, Derrick Mason, Charlie Joiner, Keenan McCardell, Donald Driver, Joe Horn, Nat Moore, Isaac Bruce, Mark Clayton.

There's nothing special about age 34. I picked that one at random because that's how old Gates was during his, (possibly-PED-aided), renaissance last year. We could repeat the process for age 33, 32, 35, 36, really any age you want to pick and the results will be the same. Very few TEs making it that far, a whole lot of WRs doing the same.

When I was working on my historical aging patterns stuff this offseason, I deliberately created a separate TE model that lumped TEs and WRs together to try to model TE aging, simply because the modern TE bears more resemblance to the longer-careered WRs than to their shorter-careered predecessors.
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I couldn't find it on Google, but what are the best TE seasons of all-time and how many of them belong to Graham? He did 1300 yards in 2011 and 1215 in 2013. How many others TEs in the NFL right now have the talent to ever hit that ceiling? I'd say one and that's Gronk. As much as I like Eifert, I don't know that he's ever going to hit those figures. I don't see Cameron/ASJ/Reed/Olsen/Ebron doing it.

I'm no VBD scientist, but it seems to me from years of playing FF that every point above the average replacement level starter in a league is worth significantly more than the last. In other words, EXTREME difference makers are worth far more than minor difference makers. And if you're looking for a potential extreme difference maker at TE in the NFL right now, your choices are limited to two guys: Gronk and Graham. Nobody else has shown the ability to reach the level that they're capable of. So if your argument is that Graham's shelf life is limited, I'd respond by saying that even a small dose of Jimmy Graham in his prime may be worth more than the entire career of even a "good" FF TE.

That aside, since your main point was about aging, I think it's widely accepted that players of exceptional ability have greater longevity potential since they can lose some talent and still be viable. Witten, Gonzo, and Gates were the best receiving TEs in the league. Even when they slipped from their peak, they still remained viable because they were still talented enough to produce. Graham is 6'6" with 4.5 speed and freak measurables. He could lose a step and still be one of the most physically gifted players at his position in the league, so he's exactly the type of guy who I'd bet on to beat the historical odds. And he's only 28 years old (29 next month).

 
EBF said:
That aside, since your main point was about aging, I think it's widely accepted that players of exceptional ability have greater longevity potential since they can lose some talent and still be viable. Witten, Gonzo, and Gates were the best receiving TEs in the league. Even when they slipped from their peak, they still remained viable because they were still talented enough to produce. Graham is 6'6" with 4.5 speed and freak measurables. He could lose a step and still be one of the most physically gifted players at his position in the league, so he's exactly the type of guy who I'd bet on to beat the historical odds. And he's only 28 years old (29 next month).
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My only point was about aging. Historically, WRs do it much better than TEs. And while all of this is true about Graham, it's even more true about Calvin Johnson, who was the guy I was responding to. (Well, not the "about-to-turn-29" part. Calvin is instead "just-turned-30". But other than that, everything applies.)

 
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EBF said:
I couldn't find it on Google, but what are the best TE seasons of all-time and how many of them belong to Graham? He did 1300 yards in 2011 and 1215 in 2013. How many others TEs in the NFL right now have the talent to ever hit that ceiling? I'd say one and that's Gronk. As much as I like Eifert, I don't know that he's ever going to hit those figures. I don't see Cameron/ASJ/Reed/Olsen/Ebron doing it.
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Also, just realized I could answer this one for you, too.

By my formula, Graham's 2012 and 2014 are around the 40th-most-valuable by a TE since 1985. Very good, but not historically good. His 2011 and 2013 were the 8th and 6th most valuable TE seasons, respectively. His raw numbers rate a lot higher, but raw numbers have been skyrocketing across the board at TE in recent years, so in terms of value over baseline, Jimmy Graham getting 86/1215/16 in 2013 isn't quite as impressive as Todd Christensen getting 95/1153/8 in 1986, (a year when Rodney Holman was cracking the top 10 with 40/570/2).

As for whether he'll hit those numbers again, I think it's relevant to point out that only four of the top 20 fantasy seasons since 1985 came from a TE older than 28. Gonzo did it at 31 and 32, and Gates and Christensen both did it at 30. Most tight ends lose a bit off the fastball around age 30. If it takes a year or two for Seattle to figure out how to integrate Graham properly, the window might well be closed on 1200-yard seasons.

 
Adam Harstad said:
EBF said:
Calvin is an interesting one. A bit like Graham in some ways except older and at a position that's generally less forgiving of age.
Click to expand...
Tight ends have historically aged much worse than WRs. Sure, you can mention Gonzo, Witten, and Gates, but (A) mentioning Gonzo is akin to mentioning Rice when discussing receiver aging patterns, (B) Witten/Gates aren't *that* old yet, (we saw Gates succeed at age 34, and Witten has had a good start to his age 33 season, but it's not at all uncommon for WRs to still be great at 33 and 34, either), and © you start to run out of examples reeeeeeeeeeeally quickly at tight end once you get past the four modern HoFers at the position (Gonzo, Sharpe, Witten, Gates).

Since 1985, here is a complete and total list of every TE who was an above-average fantasy starter at age 34 or older: Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Antonio Gates, Wesley Walls, Pete Metzelaars.

Here's that same list at wide receiver: Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, Cris Carter, Irving Fryar, Tim Brown, Marvin Harrison, Joey Galloway, Drew Hill, J.T. Smith, Reggie Wayne, Rod Smith, Art Monk, James Lofton, Jimmy Smith, Bobby Engram, Derrick Mason, Charlie Joiner, Keenan McCardell, Donald Driver, Joe Horn, Nat Moore, Isaac Bruce, Mark Clayton.

There's nothing special about age 34. I picked that one at random because that's how old Gates was during his, (possibly-PED-aided), renaissance last year. We could repeat the process for age 33, 32, 35, 36, really any age you want to pick and the results will be the same. Very few TEs making it that far, a whole lot of WRs doing the same.

When I was working on my historical aging patterns stuff this offseason, I deliberately created a separate TE model that lumped TEs and WRs together to try to model TE aging, simply because the modern TE bears more resemblance to the longer-careered WRs than to their shorter-careered predecessors.
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I like the analysis, but curious about a few factors...

First, how are you defining "fantasy starter?" Most leagues start more WRs than TEs, so doesn't that put the bar to qualify as "fantasy relevant" lower for a WR? Seems like that might account for some of the numbers imbalance here.

Second, NFL teams tend to feature more pass-catching WRs than pass-catching TEs snap-by-snap. So more opportunities for fantasy relevance at that position, could also account for the above.

Wondering if you did anything to factor this out, because otherwise, seeing a 3:1 ratio of relevant WRs to TEs would seem to be the norm. Your lists have it at 4.6:1, so still probably some truth to your premise...

 
cc texan said:
That is a terrible trade offer. Rawls has no real dynasty value, while Matthews is considered a top 20 dynasty WR. The other owner probably thought you weren't serious in offering a temp RB starter and a freaking KICKER for a dynasty WR2.
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It should be noted that the post I was talking about was in a REDRAFT league, which I may not have specified.

Note, I wrote "I offered to trade him Rawls and a secondary piece (either the SEA kicker, or a bench RB) for one of his WRs.".

The secondary piece I offered (other than the kicker) was Isaiah Crowell.

You guys can say what you want, but it is definitely a legitimate offer IN REDRAFT considering he has NO OTHER BACKS , and its a good possibility Lynch will not even play this week.

He could start Crowell, and have another RB to give him "something", there is absolutely nothing on the wire.

The worst part about this, is the guy has a contending team, and is 3-1. He is almost a lock for the playoffs, but his RBs are going to let him down if he doesn't acquire someone fast.

His other WRs are performing better than Matthews, one is Brandon Marshall, and the other I cannot remember offhand....and he has two other "startable" WRs on his bench, its a start 3 WR league.

Obviously everything changes in dynasty, and my above comments were applicable to one of my redraft leagues...so back to your dynasty thread and comments. :D

TZM

 
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Adam Harstad said:
EBF said:
I couldn't find it on Google, but what are the best TE seasons of all-time and how many of them belong to Graham? He did 1300 yards in 2011 and 1215 in 2013. How many others TEs in the NFL right now have the talent to ever hit that ceiling? I'd say one and that's Gronk. As much as I like Eifert, I don't know that he's ever going to hit those figures. I don't see Cameron/ASJ/Reed/Olsen/Ebron doing it.
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Also, just realized I could answer this one for you, too.

By my formula, Graham's 2012 and 2014 are around the 40th-most-valuable by a TE since 1985. Very good, but not historically good. His 2011 and 2013 were the 8th and 6th most valuable TE seasons, respectively. His raw numbers rate a lot higher, but raw numbers have been skyrocketing across the board at TE in recent years, so in terms of value over baseline, Jimmy Graham getting 86/1215/16 in 2013 isn't quite as impressive as Todd Christensen getting 95/1153/8 in 1986, (a year when Rodney Holman was cracking the top 10 with 40/570/2).

As for whether he'll hit those numbers again, I think it's relevant to point out that only four of the top 20 fantasy seasons since 1985 came from a TE older than 28. Gonzo did it at 31 and 32, and Gates and Christensen both did it at 30. Most tight ends lose a bit off the fastball around age 30. If it takes a year or two for Seattle to figure out how to integrate Graham properly, the window might well be closed on 1200-yard seasons.
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Here is a great article in NFL age and performance by position. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1683775-when-does-age-catch-up-to-nfl-players

Here is another.

http://www.fftoday.com/articles/bales/13_te_age.html

Here is another specifically for WR. I don't think they did one for TE, though they did for RB rpthats worth the read as well.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/08/27/age-of-decline-wr/

 
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TZMarkie said:
johnadams said:
Graham strikes me as the kind of player an owner stubbornly holds onto despite clear evidence that his role has changed significantly.
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This is a factor that can't be emphasized enough in fantasy.

Every year, people and certain owners tend to "get married" to their players.

This year has been horrific in trying to get any trades, and I'm even talking about 0-4 owners and 1-3. Or is it just me????

Its almost as if they would rather blow the season, than try and give anything away whatsoever, if the possibility exists for said player to have a blow up week.

Its like this is a common thought in my leagues.......... "THIS GUY IS GOING TO BLOW UP, I CAN'T TRADE HIM AND HAVE HIM BLOW UP ON YOUR TEAM......NO WAY CAN I RISK THAT HAPPENING"

One guy in a league I am in, has 5 "startable" WRs, but only Forte, Lynch and Sankey for RBs, NO DEPTH WHATSOEVER and as we all know (him included) Lynch is not healthy.

I offered to trade him Rawls and a secondary piece (either the SEA kicker, or a bench RB) for one of his WRs.

I pointed out Jordan Matthews, since thats the one WR he seems least pleased with.

Its like I was asking for the Holy Grail. :D

When these things occur, I almost wish for injuries to said owners' players. Upon explaining to him why I made such an offer he eventually said "Yeah, it makes sense for me with my RB crew to do that, and I'm not even losing much at WR since I can start my other guys".

BUT YET HE STILL DECLINED.

Let him be happy starting Sankey getting 2 points a game later this season.

Graham strikes me as an odd scenario.

Its almost as if the team "gave" him a TD the other week to shut him up.

As an owner last year, I watched as Graham was slowly seemingly phased out of the gameplan for the Saints, and not only was he gimpy at times, he just seemed to be factored out late season.

There was one catch Graham had late in a game (late season last year), I remember him getting like a 15 yard catch near midfield, and he erupted this guttural ROAR after getting tackled, almost as if to say "Look at me!! I'm still a part of this offense" then the camera panned away.

Like he was trying to draw attention to himself.

I bought into Russell Wilson this year in my biggest league, figuring he would be the same old top 5 or so guy, with an additional weapon in Graham.

Needless to say, I am not happy with Wilson, and I think part of the blame is Graham too.

TZM
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rawls for Matthews is insane, no wonder your leaguemates won't trade with you
 
Yes, brutal offer. And the thread title is clearly dynasty, so not sure why the post about a (still) terrible redraft offer.

 
Here's an idea... Offer the guy a RB the caliber of Jordan Matthews. If you won't a league mate might.

 
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loose circuits said:
TZMarkie said:
johnadams said:
Graham strikes me as the kind of player an owner stubbornly holds onto despite clear evidence that his role has changed significantly.
Click to expand...
This is a factor that can't be emphasized enough in fantasy.

Every year, people and certain owners tend to "get married" to their players.

This year has been horrific in trying to get any trades, and I'm even talking about 0-4 owners and 1-3. Or is it just me????

Its almost as if they would rather blow the season, than try and give anything away whatsoever, if the possibility exists for said player to have a blow up week.

Its like this is a common thought in my leagues.......... "THIS GUY IS GOING TO BLOW UP, I CAN'T TRADE HIM AND HAVE HIM BLOW UP ON YOUR TEAM......NO WAY CAN I RISK THAT HAPPENING"

One guy in a league I am in, has 5 "startable" WRs, but only Forte, Lynch and Sankey for RBs, NO DEPTH WHATSOEVER and as we all know (him included) Lynch is not healthy.

I offered to trade him Rawls and a secondary piece (either the SEA kicker, or a bench RB) for one of his WRs.

I pointed out Jordan Matthews, since thats the one WR he seems least pleased with.

Its like I was asking for the Holy Grail. :D

When these things occur, I almost wish for injuries to said owners' players. Upon explaining to him why I made such an offer he eventually said "Yeah, it makes sense for me with my RB crew to do that, and I'm not even losing much at WR since I can start my other guys".

BUT YET HE STILL DECLINED.

Let him be happy starting Sankey getting 2 points a game later this season.

Graham strikes me as an odd scenario.

Its almost as if the team "gave" him a TD the other week to shut him up.

As an owner last year, I watched as Graham was slowly seemingly phased out of the gameplan for the Saints, and not only was he gimpy at times, he just seemed to be factored out late season.

There was one catch Graham had late in a game (late season last year), I remember him getting like a 15 yard catch near midfield, and he erupted this guttural ROAR after getting tackled, almost as if to say "Look at me!! I'm still a part of this offense" then the camera panned away.

Like he was trying to draw attention to himself.

I bought into Russell Wilson this year in my biggest league, figuring he would be the same old top 5 or so guy, with an additional weapon in Graham.

Needless to say, I am not happy with Wilson, and I think part of the blame is Graham too.

TZM
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rawls for Matthews is insane, no wonder your leaguemates won't trade with you
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Offered Ingram for Matthews and was snap rejected. Agreed Rawls for Matthews is a terrible offer.

 
TZMarkie said:
loose circuits said:
rawls for Matthews is insane, no wonder your leaguemates won't trade with you
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Never mind, its truly a waste of time with some of you guys.

TZM
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Let me get this straight.You make a terrible offer in your league, and the other guy is the #####.

You post the bad trade offer here and people point out that it's terrible, and they're the a-holes.

At some point, you need to stop and think that it might not be everybody else.

 
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6. Jimmy Graham - Concerns that being in Seattle would limit his upside have been validated thus far.

I traded him away a few weeks ago but did not think I sold low, I mean less than what I'd have sold him for if he was still a Saint but not a give away by any means. But I think it's about to be time to start buying him back if the price is right because one of two things are going to happen. They are either going to start finding ways to make him worth the $10 million a year they are paying him or he's going to go the Percy Harvin route where they realize they made a mistake and move on. I believe he could get traded this season, but I absolutely don't see him returning to Seattle next season if his current usage remains on these levels. If that thought seems crazy just keep in mind Seattle has a lot of people to pay and they have zero salary cap hit if they trade Graham, they just free up about $10 million.

 
Arodin said:
I like the analysis, but curious about a few factors...

First, how are you defining "fantasy starter?" Most leagues start more WRs than TEs, so doesn't that put the bar to qualify as "fantasy relevant" lower for a WR? Seems like that might account for some of the numbers imbalance here.

Second, NFL teams tend to feature more pass-catching WRs than pass-catching TEs snap-by-snap. So more opportunities for fantasy relevance at that position, could also account for the above.

Wondering if you did anything to factor this out, because otherwise, seeing a 3:1 ratio of relevant WRs to TEs would seem to be the norm. Your lists have it at 4.6:1, so still probably some truth to your premise...
Click to expand...
I've written a lot about the process by which I built the data over the last summer, and it'd probably be far too big of an infodump to go over it all again. The basics are "fantasy starter" is anyone who averages more points per game than I would expect the average starter at the position to score, based on my study of league-wide averages in dozens of actual fantasy football leagues. Because of the way the data worked out, it's actually probably an easier bar to clear at tight end than at wide receiver, (because people start some really unproductive tight ends on a week-to-week basis).

For example, in 1990, (year selected completely at random), there were 10 tight ends who averaged more points per game than an estimated "average starter", compared to 23 wide receivers.

The specifics aren't really important, though. I've looked enough at aging patterns over the last offseason that I feel very confident that, whatever methodology is used, the data will show that over the last 30 years receivers have aged more gracefully than tight ends. Which isn't necessarily relevant, given how dramatically the tight end's role has changed over the last ten years.

If someone wants to say that since Jimmy Graham is essentially a WR, anyway, he should be expected to age as well as a receiver, I'm cool with that. I specifically altered my "TE Aging Model" to include data from wide receivers, simply because I think historical TE aging patterns are going to be as similar to future TE aging patterns as historical TEs are to future TEs. (Not very.)

I was just disagreeing with the idea that tight ends age *better* than receivers. I suspect people would be very hard-pressed to find anything that supported that.

 
I'm actively trying to sell Graham but who do you sell him for? I'd have to get a TE in return for my lineup, so you'd want Gronk. Maybe Kelce or Olsen. Otherwise you're just trading for another TE in the same range. So the most likely is a hold and pray he leaves Seattle soon.

 
Andrew74 said:
I'm actively trying to sell Graham but who do you sell him for? I'd have to get a TE in return for my lineup, so you'd want Gronk. Maybe Kelce or Olsen. Otherwise you're just trading for another TE in the same range. So the most likely is a hold and pray he leaves Seattle soon.
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I've got Eifert ranked over Graham in dynasty, in addition to Gronk and Kelce. I bet you could get Charles Clay plus another nice piece in exchange for him, still, and I'd be on that in a heartbeat, too.

 
If someone is selling OBJ... I'm buying at any cost. He is a elite talent that has no comparison. He's about to explode. Last 4 games were like preseason for him. Plus, Cruz has not played one down yet.

 
cc texan said:
TZMarkie said:
loose circuits said:
rawls for Matthews is insane, no wonder your leaguemates won't trade with you
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Let me get this straight.You make a terrible offer in your league, and the other guy is the #####.

You post the bad trade offer here and people point out that it's terrible, and they're the a-holes.

At some point, you need to stop and think that it might not be everybody else.
Click to expand...
No, yet again poor reading comprehension comes to the forefront.

The quoted offer was NOT what I offered, and had you taken the time to actually read what I wrote..... instead of trying to take some shot at me (or even say that I thought someone was an "#####") then maybe you would have gotten the point of the post I made in general.

But like most other people, you would rather see what you want to see, (read and think about only what you want) and react accordingly.

The reason I posted had nothing to do with my trade offer, whether you think its good or bad....nor how anyone else perceives it.

The reason I posted, was to mention something the poster "johnadams" alluded to, and what was lost on you, is that I even quoted it in my first post.

I also admitted my offer was in redraft, which is also a totally different animal than Dynasty.

But I see you have been here 3 years and have posted a grand total of 37 times, two of which you apparently wasted in some offshoot argument?... (on a post of mine in which you completely overlooked the point of my original post)

I'll just put you on ignore and save my time down the road.

Sorry to clutter your thread guys.

Onward with the discussion.

TZM

 
JI felt like this was a good time to make a play for Jeffrey. Reached out to a struggling owner in my league. traded Allen Robinson and a low R2 pick for Jeffrey and a low R3 pick. i hated to part with the R2 but i felt like the compensation was enough with the R3 added. i have enough depth at WR that I can afford to wait for Jeffrey to deal with his injuries. his longterm value, especially with Kevin White, is pretty good.

 
Adam Harstad said:
Andrew74 said:
I'm actively trying to sell Graham but who do you sell him for? I'd have to get a TE in return for my lineup, so you'd want Gronk. Maybe Kelce or Olsen. Otherwise you're just trading for another TE in the same range. So the most likely is a hold and pray he leaves Seattle soon.
Click to expand...
I've got Eifert ranked over Graham in dynasty, in addition to Gronk and Kelce. I bet you could get Charles Clay plus another nice piece in exchange for him, still, and I'd be on that in a heartbeat, too.
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I have been far down on Graham, even before he left the Saints last year.

I watched how he seemed to be slowly phased out of the offense. As an owner at the time, I was surprised that Brees didn't go to him in a number of scenarios that they were often hooking up on in the years prior.

Last year it seemed to begin somewhere around week 11 or so.

So I am definitely higher on Eifert as well, and Kelce too for that matter.

I personally don't want Gronk, but thats more of a personal choice having to do with his injury history.

He is a known difference maker, and if anything could sway me from not wanting to touch him, its the heavy usage and scoring threat at any time.

But personally I don't want to incur the injury risk, in addition to the injury risk we always fade when it comes to running backs.

Eifert was another...... I had my injury doubts preseason, but he looks to be "good to go", and I even own him in a redraft league this year. (even though I wasn't looking for him preseason)

Doesn't Charles Clay have a degenerative condition in his knees? I remember reading something somewhere, but its been ages. Possibly last year.

I admit to only owning him in spots last year, but he always seemed gimpy then. I don't have his history in front of me, but he has missed a number of games from memory.

I may be inclined to take a chance on Clay + another piece as Adam mentioned, but in the back of my mind Clay would be one that I would be "always open to offers on".

Graham is a tough one to call currently.

I do not own him anywhere, but it might be a scenario where you have to hope for a couple of big games, then try and capitalize on that and get what you can at that point.

TZM

 
I'd like to throw out these guys as possible recency-bias buy lows:

Melvin Gordon

Devante Parker

Carlos Hyde

DaVante Adams

DeSean Jackson

Ryan Tannehill

I don't think these guys got any worse or lost talent, but are just victims of poor coaching, youth, or circumstance.

 
Good list. The only exception I'd make is d-jax. He's no young buck and the injuries feel like they're becoming standard for him. I'm no buyer, that's for sure.

Carlos Hyde is someone I've considered showing a bid for. Same with Tannehill. As you've pointed out, they're victims of their current surroundings.

 
Adam Harstad said:
Andrew74 said:
I'm actively trying to sell Graham but who do you sell him for? I'd have to get a TE in return for my lineup, so you'd want Gronk. Maybe Kelce or Olsen. Otherwise you're just trading for another TE in the same range. So the most likely is a hold and pray he leaves Seattle soon.
Click to expand...
I've got Eifert ranked over Graham in dynasty, in addition to Gronk and Kelce. I bet you could get Charles Clay plus another nice piece in exchange for him, still, and I'd be on that in a heartbeat, too.
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Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but IMO it's a mistake to lump Graham in with guys like Clay. IMO there is categorical difference in their talent level. Sort of like the gap between Calvin and someone like Crabtree or Maclin. There is a big difference between a great player and a merely good one. Good players are useful in FF, but great players come along maybe once or twice per draft class on average and can be invaluable in FF because they can hit ppg levels that nobody else at their position can touch. Graham is a guy who has hit 1200 yards receiving twice already in a six year career. Players like Olsen/Clay/Kelce will probably never do it. He's on a higher talent plane than them.

I think if you look at both Graham and Calvin, both guys are scoring well below their potential at the moment, yet I'd be extremely reluctant to cash out for an inferior talent who happens to be scoring slightly better right now. Although it seems hypocritical to suggest this as someone who just traded Graham for less than premium value, I'll take the opposite side of this one. If people are starting to view Clay + extras as fair value for Graham then it might be time to buy Graham. I have Clay in two leagues and would happily tack on a meaningless 2nd round rookie pick to get a real nucleus player.

 
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