For those (like me) that are out of the playoff chase and are interested in getting a leg up and starting a conversation about next year- take a look below. There has been much turnover, especially at the top of the RB board, with injuries taking a major toll. Anyway, the below are preliminary- standard scoring (non- ppr) I'll try and expand the board and update somewhat regularly:
Version 1- 12/22/21
1. Jonathan Taylor- Has dominated in every possible way. Elite level line play. The clear #1 for 2022.
2. Derrick Henry- PPG and volume remain stratospheric. The injury is a concern, as is the number of carries, but for redraft or keeper, remains only below JT.
3. Dalvin Cook- Seems to miss 2 or 3 games every year, but just is too consistent when he plays- along with offering a nearly unmatched ceiling, to drop outside the top 3.
4. Austin Ekeler- a true dual threat RB that plays through everything.
5. Alvin Kamara- Even with below average QB play and some missed time due to injury, provides huge value in both run and receiving game.
6. Joe Mixon- The year where the true 3 down talent was allowed to flourish.
7. Tyreek Hill- Case could be made for Adams, Kupp, Jefferson, or Chase here. Hill has the best QB and surrounding cast, making his risk just a bit lower.
8. Justin Jefferson- Has become everything we had hoped for, in terms of growth, after year #1.
9. Cooper Kupp- Woods will return and OBJ looks to carve a legitimate role, so 2021 is most certainly a career year. Nonetheless, even 80% of 2021 in 2022 makes for a fine late first round pick.
10. Najee Harris- Those in RB heavy leagues could go even higher. Considered him as high as #6, but Big Ben has to go and the line needs a major overhaul. Still a top ten performer despite the surrounding cast.
11. Ja’Marr Chase- Elite touchdown scorer with QB that is only getting better.
12. Javonte Williams- If Gordon leaves and a new QB (Rodgers?) jumps in, will move way up. Is a middling RB2 despite hovering around 50% of the RB touches.
13. Davante Adams- If Rodgers stays, he could move up a spot or two. If Rodgers leaves, he drops, perhaps dramatically, depending upon the replacement.
14. Nick Chubb- Elite runner on a ground and pound team. Ceiling limited due to dearth of pass catching.
15. Christian McCaffrey- Back to back injury plagued seasons. Very difficult to rank. I’d consider CMC at the 1-2 turn, knowing that he was at full health and had improved QB play for 2022.
16. Deebo Samuel- Dual threat playmaker. Questions regarding workload as Kittle has returned with a vengeance, and will JG give way to Lance?
17. Stefon Diggs- Despite a bit of a down 2021, a top 9 WR. Paired with Allen. Love his floor. For those that opt on the side of bust avoidance, a nice round #2 choice.
18. De’Andre Swift- Has the talent to be a multi-threat star; runs and receives with equal skill, terrific in space. Supporting cast suppresses value for now.
19. Antonio Gibson- Perhaps doesn’t posses the RB1 upside we hoped for, but is a rock-solid player that should go in Round #2.
20. AJ Brown- 2021 a lost year. Still has TO like talent. You won’t regret nabbing him here. The 2022 Comeback Player of the year. Just watch the 2020 highlights if you need inspiration.
21. Travis Kelce- Likely on the downslope, but still plenty good enough to be a round #2 pick. A little uneven this year but the previous career trajectory was both unprecedented and unsustainable.
22. Josh Allen- Many say this is to high for a QB. Allen’s VBD the past few years says otherwise. If nothing else, he’s a safe play here.
23. Saquon Barkley- If you are a glutton for punishment and are willing to risk significant underperformance for the potential benefit of elite talent, Barkley at the 2/3 turn is daring. The offseason in NY will play a huge role.
24. Elijah Mitchell- Shanny loves him. If he stays healthy and holds the bell cow role, a top ten season awaits.
25. CD Lamb- If Amari leaves, CD has the talent to move into the top 12 overall players.
26. Mahomes- I have no issue with the game’s best QB in round #3. The top of the QB group provides an advantage over the next tier, and presents some value here, especially due to the high variance of players outside the top 7-10 overall performers
27. Aaron Jones- Very tough to rank with Dillon taking approximately half the workload. Still, Jones has traditionally done quite well with limited volume.
28. Ezekiel Elliott- Has worn down considerably the last two seasons. Volume has taken its toll and Pollard is perfectly viable to take 35%-40% of the workload, but Zeke will again hit 1100ish yards and double-digit TDs.
29. JK Dobbins- Looks to return to a lead RB role next year.
30. Mike Evans- Just continues to produce in the low end WR1, High end WR2 range.
31. Mark Andrews- It looks like 2020 was the outlier. Tremendous rebound season portends well for 2022.
32. DK Metcalf- Seattle is poised for a massive 2022 reset, making it impossible to forecast for next year. This ranking presumes Russ stays, a true coin flip right now. Talent is just too special to rank any lower.
33. Adam Thielen- Not flashy or spectacular, but just a good football (and fantasy) player in what seems to be a stable setting.
34. George Kittle- Count on high ceiling and low floor weeks. As volatile as they come, but a true difference maker when on the field. He’s be a top 15 player if he could just avoid injury, but he’s such a violent blocker and receiver, that is unlikely to happen.
35. Leonard Fournette- I cringe putting him here and feel like this is a prime bust spot, but he’s been unbelievable for the last calendar year.
36. Josh Jacobs- Gruden’s departure has paved a return to relevance for Jacobs. Raiders fully exploiting the skill set in a lead role.
37. Clyde Edwards- Hellaire- He’ll likely never ascend to the lofty draft expectations, but plays on an elite offense with a legendary surrounding cast. A reasonable round #3 pick and second RB.
38. James Connor- This will undoubtedly be his career year. He looks like a new player. Major TD regression coming has figures to remain in the RB2 mix going forward.
39. Lamar Jackson- He’s just too good and is one of about 5 QBs that will continue to produce a major advantage over the field, even in shallow leagues. I’ll take him over some more volatile players here, even if the late round QB crowd disagrees.
40. Kyler Murray- See above.
41. Dionte Johnson- Even though Roethlisberger is likely gone and DJ was the clear #1 option for him, DJ’s skill set is translatable to any QB.
42. Mike Williams- Exploded in the early part of this year but has regressed. Will he return? This presumes he does. Playing with Herbert and Allen virtually ensures WR2 value.
43. Cam Akers/ Darrell Henderson- The lead RB in this committee entering the 2022 season will be locked into a high-end RB 2/Back end RB 1 role. If Akers is healthy, and an Achilles tendon injury is significant, he is likely to command the majority of the touches. Remember how dynamic he was (coupled with major volume) at the end of last year.
44. Justin Herbert- The league’s second most valuable player from a real football lens (behind only Mahomes, he’s the guy I would most want to build a franchise around), is one of five true difference makers at the position.
45. Tyler Lockett- If Russ stays, he may be a bit underpriced, but I think a major reboot, not including Russ, is coming next year.
46. C. Patterson- Great story, great year, but this type of production will likely never come close to happening again. Buyer beware.
47. Damien Harris- Will likely be the lead of a committee with Stephenson that makes him usable but not elite, a low ceiling RB 2.
48. James Robinson- Etienne returns next year. New staff likely but production cannot be ignored. Just a good football player.
49. Melvin Gordon- Will have a role somewhere next year. I’m proposing that he leaves Denver, which the Williams acolytes appreciate.
50. Darrell Henderson- Will have some kind of role, just such variance in projections with so much unknown right now.
Version 1- 12/22/21
1. Jonathan Taylor- Has dominated in every possible way. Elite level line play. The clear #1 for 2022.
2. Derrick Henry- PPG and volume remain stratospheric. The injury is a concern, as is the number of carries, but for redraft or keeper, remains only below JT.
3. Dalvin Cook- Seems to miss 2 or 3 games every year, but just is too consistent when he plays- along with offering a nearly unmatched ceiling, to drop outside the top 3.
4. Austin Ekeler- a true dual threat RB that plays through everything.
5. Alvin Kamara- Even with below average QB play and some missed time due to injury, provides huge value in both run and receiving game.
6. Joe Mixon- The year where the true 3 down talent was allowed to flourish.
7. Tyreek Hill- Case could be made for Adams, Kupp, Jefferson, or Chase here. Hill has the best QB and surrounding cast, making his risk just a bit lower.
8. Justin Jefferson- Has become everything we had hoped for, in terms of growth, after year #1.
9. Cooper Kupp- Woods will return and OBJ looks to carve a legitimate role, so 2021 is most certainly a career year. Nonetheless, even 80% of 2021 in 2022 makes for a fine late first round pick.
10. Najee Harris- Those in RB heavy leagues could go even higher. Considered him as high as #6, but Big Ben has to go and the line needs a major overhaul. Still a top ten performer despite the surrounding cast.
11. Ja’Marr Chase- Elite touchdown scorer with QB that is only getting better.
12. Javonte Williams- If Gordon leaves and a new QB (Rodgers?) jumps in, will move way up. Is a middling RB2 despite hovering around 50% of the RB touches.
13. Davante Adams- If Rodgers stays, he could move up a spot or two. If Rodgers leaves, he drops, perhaps dramatically, depending upon the replacement.
14. Nick Chubb- Elite runner on a ground and pound team. Ceiling limited due to dearth of pass catching.
15. Christian McCaffrey- Back to back injury plagued seasons. Very difficult to rank. I’d consider CMC at the 1-2 turn, knowing that he was at full health and had improved QB play for 2022.
16. Deebo Samuel- Dual threat playmaker. Questions regarding workload as Kittle has returned with a vengeance, and will JG give way to Lance?
17. Stefon Diggs- Despite a bit of a down 2021, a top 9 WR. Paired with Allen. Love his floor. For those that opt on the side of bust avoidance, a nice round #2 choice.
18. De’Andre Swift- Has the talent to be a multi-threat star; runs and receives with equal skill, terrific in space. Supporting cast suppresses value for now.
19. Antonio Gibson- Perhaps doesn’t posses the RB1 upside we hoped for, but is a rock-solid player that should go in Round #2.
20. AJ Brown- 2021 a lost year. Still has TO like talent. You won’t regret nabbing him here. The 2022 Comeback Player of the year. Just watch the 2020 highlights if you need inspiration.
21. Travis Kelce- Likely on the downslope, but still plenty good enough to be a round #2 pick. A little uneven this year but the previous career trajectory was both unprecedented and unsustainable.
22. Josh Allen- Many say this is to high for a QB. Allen’s VBD the past few years says otherwise. If nothing else, he’s a safe play here.
23. Saquon Barkley- If you are a glutton for punishment and are willing to risk significant underperformance for the potential benefit of elite talent, Barkley at the 2/3 turn is daring. The offseason in NY will play a huge role.
24. Elijah Mitchell- Shanny loves him. If he stays healthy and holds the bell cow role, a top ten season awaits.
25. CD Lamb- If Amari leaves, CD has the talent to move into the top 12 overall players.
26. Mahomes- I have no issue with the game’s best QB in round #3. The top of the QB group provides an advantage over the next tier, and presents some value here, especially due to the high variance of players outside the top 7-10 overall performers
27. Aaron Jones- Very tough to rank with Dillon taking approximately half the workload. Still, Jones has traditionally done quite well with limited volume.
28. Ezekiel Elliott- Has worn down considerably the last two seasons. Volume has taken its toll and Pollard is perfectly viable to take 35%-40% of the workload, but Zeke will again hit 1100ish yards and double-digit TDs.
29. JK Dobbins- Looks to return to a lead RB role next year.
30. Mike Evans- Just continues to produce in the low end WR1, High end WR2 range.
31. Mark Andrews- It looks like 2020 was the outlier. Tremendous rebound season portends well for 2022.
32. DK Metcalf- Seattle is poised for a massive 2022 reset, making it impossible to forecast for next year. This ranking presumes Russ stays, a true coin flip right now. Talent is just too special to rank any lower.
33. Adam Thielen- Not flashy or spectacular, but just a good football (and fantasy) player in what seems to be a stable setting.
34. George Kittle- Count on high ceiling and low floor weeks. As volatile as they come, but a true difference maker when on the field. He’s be a top 15 player if he could just avoid injury, but he’s such a violent blocker and receiver, that is unlikely to happen.
35. Leonard Fournette- I cringe putting him here and feel like this is a prime bust spot, but he’s been unbelievable for the last calendar year.
36. Josh Jacobs- Gruden’s departure has paved a return to relevance for Jacobs. Raiders fully exploiting the skill set in a lead role.
37. Clyde Edwards- Hellaire- He’ll likely never ascend to the lofty draft expectations, but plays on an elite offense with a legendary surrounding cast. A reasonable round #3 pick and second RB.
38. James Connor- This will undoubtedly be his career year. He looks like a new player. Major TD regression coming has figures to remain in the RB2 mix going forward.
39. Lamar Jackson- He’s just too good and is one of about 5 QBs that will continue to produce a major advantage over the field, even in shallow leagues. I’ll take him over some more volatile players here, even if the late round QB crowd disagrees.
40. Kyler Murray- See above.
41. Dionte Johnson- Even though Roethlisberger is likely gone and DJ was the clear #1 option for him, DJ’s skill set is translatable to any QB.
42. Mike Williams- Exploded in the early part of this year but has regressed. Will he return? This presumes he does. Playing with Herbert and Allen virtually ensures WR2 value.
43. Cam Akers/ Darrell Henderson- The lead RB in this committee entering the 2022 season will be locked into a high-end RB 2/Back end RB 1 role. If Akers is healthy, and an Achilles tendon injury is significant, he is likely to command the majority of the touches. Remember how dynamic he was (coupled with major volume) at the end of last year.
44. Justin Herbert- The league’s second most valuable player from a real football lens (behind only Mahomes, he’s the guy I would most want to build a franchise around), is one of five true difference makers at the position.
45. Tyler Lockett- If Russ stays, he may be a bit underpriced, but I think a major reboot, not including Russ, is coming next year.
46. C. Patterson- Great story, great year, but this type of production will likely never come close to happening again. Buyer beware.
47. Damien Harris- Will likely be the lead of a committee with Stephenson that makes him usable but not elite, a low ceiling RB 2.
48. James Robinson- Etienne returns next year. New staff likely but production cannot be ignored. Just a good football player.
49. Melvin Gordon- Will have a role somewhere next year. I’m proposing that he leaves Denver, which the Williams acolytes appreciate.
50. Darrell Henderson- Will have some kind of role, just such variance in projections with so much unknown right now.
