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Mr. Ham

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Mr. Ham last won the day on February 3 2016

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About Mr. Ham

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    Footballguy
  • Birthday 02/18/1973

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    Dayton, OH

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  1. We learned quite a bit with the Diamond Princess. It’s highly virulent despite quarantine measures. I can buy that many got sick due to handling of food, but there were workers who came aboard with barriers and had zero contact with passengers and ended up with it. Some patients test for it but are completely symptomatic. Others have symptoms that are mistakable for common cold, or at worst mild flu, and at this stage wouldn’t lead the public at large to seek medical treatment. Chance it’s spreading horizontally in the population, globally, is high. Chance of isolating in the few vertical towers that are known to the public are low. And I’d have to build an Excel model, but difference between a 1.28 and a 3 R0 is profound, depending on the time horizon. Exponentials kick in rather quickly. Other thing that’s not being commonly factored (at least that I’ve seen) is the average length a patient is contagious. With flu, it’s 3-5 days. I don’t know the answer, but with COVID-19, it might be considerably longer.
  2. Exactly, that’s a trend that favors this diminishing over time. The variants that kill quickly end up snuffed out with their hosts, while the ones this linger survive.
  3. Not to belabor the point, but we have to sift facts like one of those old change sorters. Some is verified and reported by legitimate outlets. Some is crowdsourced and of questionable provenance. Some is more-or-less raw data that has to be placed in context. Some is disinformation meant to gain clicks. Some is disinformation derived from legitimate information that exaggerates. Some is analysis by experts. Some is conjecture based on reasonable logic and interpretation of trends. Some is state sponsored propaganda. Some is catastrophizing. It all spreads at a million miles per hour, gets mutated by social, and the appetite is insatiable. As a result, any of us who feels comfortable we know within 20% +/- what’s going on is fooling ourselves.
  4. Think watching the numbers is futile at this point. The world saddled is with this virus from now on. Emphasis should be on treatment and vaccines, not isolation, as a primary means of mitigation. Over time, it won’t be novel anymore, meaning the human immune system will adapt, and hopefully the virus itself will mutate downward in severity. But idea that this will be contained and not spread globally over months, let alone years, is beyond optimistic. I assume for every case we see identified at this point, we’re some exponent above that and that number will continue to spiral upwards. Hope two things: For whatever reason, what Wuhan is dealing with is a strain that isn’t going global We can manage and mitigate severe cases an bring the death rate below 2% of overall cases, and hopefully below that in children and the healthy
  5. You, who has been a voice of reason (thank you) sort of prove my point. There does seem to be something different about Wuhan, and it seems plausible that a dodgy vaccine out of the Wuhan Lab did cause a high virulent strain that mutated down and explains the relatively mild strain in the wild. But it’s a conspiracy theory. One that makes a lot of sense amidst alternatives, but baseless all the same. In concert with missing, false, misleading, and absent data, especially when complicated by people making up stories for attention or to get clicks, where does a reasonable theory become a conspiracy theory? My observations lead me to at least a sense that the strain that is steadily spreading internationally is bad, and dangerous when compared to flu, but us not what China dealt with in the initial outbreak in Wuhan, where it appears the government knew something that begot the massive response and economic halt. I agree that a dodgy vaccine would make sense in explaining that, and it would also explain how many more people may have gotten sick sooner than reported. But like so much surrounding all of this, I just don’t know.
  6. We’re in a terrible era for information. On one hand, there is a profit motive for manufacturing and propagating conspiracies. Yesterday there was one on Twitter with YouTube videos and a supposed voicemail backing it, claiming New York State was hiding cases and had a gag order. There are endless similar outright fictional stories. It’s really sad people do this, but they do. Then there’s the fact we can’t trust what’s coming out of many governments, so there are videos of dead bodies on the street, and citizens of China claiming things are far worse than reported, but don’t know what to do with that. Then there are published research papers summarized in media, in some cases behind pay walls, with no consistent guidance as to their credence. One from Harvard claims, as summarized in reddit, that 60-89% of cases aren’t being screened and caught. Then there’s the one out of Los Alamos that says the r0 could be north of 6. Have no idea what stock to put in these. Reddit has quoted a stat several times that 10% of the global population (some 7.6 billion) are under at least partial quarantine. I have not been able to verify this via Google. Then there are articles posted with dubious provenance with all manner of conspiracy, which then bleed into mainstream reporting. The Wuhan Lab reporting has hit Fox, with their touting that the Chinese ambassador won’t deny it. Senator Tom Cotton is beating that drum, but we all know we cannot trust the veracity of Congressional leadership these days. There’s a story I’ve seen linked more than once that says all of Wuhan got government mandated vaccines December 1, and it could have been a bad vaccine responsible for the high death rate and more mild strains that derived from that which was injected. Net result is a sorry state of affairs. Don’t know what to believe, or whom to trust. I’ve reverted to more conservative view that things are probably closer to the manageable end of the spectrum that apocalyptic, but I do think it’s reasonable to question how forthcoming and proactive world governments are to detect something that could have crippling economic consequences and cause panic. On one hand, it feels like solid information isn’t coming fast enough, and on the majority of information that is coming is dubious or outright fraudulent. Strange time to be alive.
  7. We do alright, but generally will suck it up in coach for personal trips. That way, we get to mostly travel on points and get more vacations. Always grateful as soon as we’re off that last plane.
  8. 6’2”, but depending on the airline my knees are right up against the seat. Post below yours from moleculo is right. I think reclining is generally rude, and refrain unless it’s an international flight. But I’m okay with it if there is the currency of eye contact first, or a request, or at least a signal first slow recline in advance of slow recline. There is etiquette. But it is a rude thing to do, and I’d suggest people refrain if possible. I’ve pushed the seat back with my knees and had words before, when someone jolted right into the kneecaps. It was a problem for me when I flew American. Since I switched to Delta and got Diamond, I’m almost always at least in a Comfort seat, and it really doesn’t matter because the seats are large. It’s the seats where every inch matters where it’s ridiculous.
  9. Years ago, I had someone suddenly jolt back and it snapped the screen on my laptop.
  10. People who recline on a coach flight of less than 3 hours are garbage, and I’ve had the occasion to tell them that more than once. Usually I’m upgraded so not a problem. But recline on someone over 6 feet at your own peril.
  11. May be surprising coming from me, but consider ordering takeout from your local mom and pop Chinese place this weekend. Reading that local Chinese food sales is hit pretty badly. Even if there were cases near you, I doubt the means of transmission would through takeout food. If you’re concerned, don’t get finger foods or salads. Anything cooked that arrives hot is fine.
  12. Numbers in Singapore are concerning. Doubled in last couple days. I’ll note that the virus is not supposed to do well in humid, hot conditions. It averages in the mid to high 80s with high humidity there. Singapore seems to be taking an entirely transparent approach to data about patients. They may be to this outbreak what Spain was in 1918. They will give us a preview of how it spreads, and what cases like in a first world medical system.