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Dynasty Rankings (10 Viewers)

Great discussion, as usual. SSOG, I think you may be setting Holmes’ floor too high (he was WR37 last year), and if Meachem were to become the WR1 in NO, I think 4-6 slots higher is a low estimate of the potential difference between the two. Admittedly, I am undecided as to where I would rank Holmes right now. His fantastic year thus far has me rethinking things for sure, but before this year, I would not have considered him in my top 15 (probably outside my top 20). In any case, I don’t think that he is the closest thing to a lock. Also admittedly, I don’t have a good handle on Meachem either. Right now, I rank Holmes ahead of Meachem. However, I don’t think its so far fetched to think that Meachem is a better dynasty bet than Holmes. Looking at F&L’s rankings, Britt and Nicks are ranked just ahead of Holmes and Maclin ranked just below. Crabtree and Harvin are on the next tier up entirely. I like Crabtree, Harvin and Maclin ahead of Holmes and Britt and Nicks just below so my rankings are probably close to F&L’s relative to these players. Some may not agree that Nicks/Britt/Maclin > Holmes or to a lesser extent, Crabtree/Harvin > Holmes, but I doubt many would find it controversial to rank those rooks ahead of Holmes. I am wondering why it is acceptable to rank those rookies ahead or equal to Holmes but it is controversial to rank Meachem at the same level. All of those rookies are as speculative as Meachem, are they not?I rank Crabtree/Harvin/Maclin ahead of Holmes because I think it is a big deal if a player has the upside of being a top 10-15 dynasty WR. If you think Meachem has “potential” to be that top 10-15 WR, that would be a big deal. I would not have the guts to trade Holmes for Meachem right now, but if Meachem finishes the year big, I may not be able to get Meachem for Holmes at year’s end.
I might be setting Holmes' floor too high, but I don't think so. He ranked as WR32 last year, but last year was a lost season for the entire Pittsburgh offense, starting and ending with Big Ben. Roethlisberger had the lowest ypg total since his second year in the league, his lowest ypa figure by a substantial margin, came one incompletion away from matching his career low in comp%, and set a new career low in TD%. I don't know what was behind it, but Ben was not himself in any way shape or form last year, and the entire offense reflected it. Ben got himself together towards the end of the season and started performing like the talented QB he really is and both he and Holmes ended the regular season and the postseason on a high note. I posted a lot about Ben in the offseason, but I really view the regular season last year as an aberration and not a meaningful trend. With that mindset, Santonio seems like a lock for consistent top 20 production for years to come.
 
Looking at F&L’s rankings, Britt and Nicks are ranked just ahead of Holmes and Maclin ranked just below. Crabtree and Harvin are on the next tier up entirely. I like Crabtree, Harvin and Maclin ahead of Holmes and Britt and Nicks just below so my rankings are probably close to F&L’s relative to these players. Some may not agree that Nicks/Britt/Maclin > Holmes or to a lesser extent, Crabtree/Harvin > Holmes, but I doubt many would find it controversial to rank those rooks ahead of Holmes. I am wondering why it is acceptable to rank those rookies ahead or equal to Holmes but it is controversial to rank Meachem at the same level. All of those rookies are as speculative as Meachem, are they not?
I don't think it would be very wise to rank many of those rooks ahead of Holmes. If F&L has Britt and Nicks ranked ahead of Holmes then all that tells me is that he's probably underrating Holmes. The odds of all of these first round WRs fulfilling their promise are low. Some will probably flatline, regress, or disappear entirely (although I happen to think this is an exceptional group). You bring up an interesting point though. Why is it acceptable to rate one speculative prospect substantially higher than another who seems identical on the surface? Sometimes it's just a subjective consensus. Shonn Greene was drafted much higher than Glen Coffee in all of my rookie drafts despite the fact that they were both 3rd round NFL draft picks. Both players looked similar on paper, but people obviously saw something in Greene that they didn't see in Coffee. Part of it was the opportunity factor. Part of it was probably a subjective consensus that Greene was the superior talent. Sometimes we can look at two players with similar pedigrees and see vastly different career outlooks despite the lack of objective support. In the specific case of Meachem vs. this year's premium rookie WRs, I think you have to consider a few factors. The first is that people are always infatuated with the shiny new toy. Any time a first round rookie comes in and plays well immediately, long term expectations soar. Hence the rampant optimism re: Nicks, Harvin, Maclin, Britt, Crabtree, etc. They were high picks. They look good. They must be superstars. This is the "logic" that is applied to every incoming rookie class. Consider the fact that you would take more flak for ranking Marshawn Lynch as a top 5 dynasty RB then you would if you ranked Beanie Wells as a top 5 dynasty RB even though Wells hasn't proven to be any better than Lynch. We easily project greatness onto unfamiliar players, but it's harder to project greatness onto someone familiar and seemingly ordinary. This brings me to my second point. Whereas most of this year's premium rookie WRs have played well out of the gate, we had to suffer through two years of Robert Meachem's invisibility act just to get to where we are now. If these rookies with no experience are already as good as Meachem is three years into his career then you can make an argument that they must be superior talents. It's a flawed argument and a gross oversimplification, but there's some sense to it. If Hakeem Nicks is already as good as Robert Meachem, how much better than Meachem will Nicks be once he has a couple seasons of experience under his belt? This kind of thinking drives the favoritism towards youth. We tend to project more improvement on younger players, which actually makes sense. In theory Meachem is closer to being a finished product than Harvin/Nicks/Crabtree are, so if those guys are already as impressive as him then it makes sense to assume that they might eventually become better. This explains why people are more receptive to overoptimistic rankings of Harvin/Nicks/Britt than they are to overoptimistic rankings of Meachem (and why people could easily rank Wells over Lynch even though such a ranking is almost entirely speculative). In the end, rankings are highly subjective. Robert Meachem and Michael Crabtree might have similar career outlooks if all you look at is the draft pedigree and the combine numbers, but that doesn't mean people won't insert their own judgments into the equation. If you're someone who's subjectively impressed with Meachem then you'll be inclined to rate him above where the objective factors would dictate. If you're someone who's subjectively impressed with Crabtree then you'll be inclined to rate him above where the objective factors would dictate. Some might like Meachem more than Crabtree, but in this case I think it's safe to say that the subjective consensus is far more impressed with the younger player. Part of this is because Crabtree was a high profile player in college (high profile = high awareness = more likely to be coveted). Part of this is because (IMO) Crabtree is just better.
 
Great discussion, as usual.

SSOG, I think you may be setting Holmes’ floor too high (he was WR37 last year), and if Meachem were to become the WR1 in NO, I think 4-6 slots higher is a low estimate of the potential difference between the two.
:lmao: How does this happen?

Colston is 1 year older than Meach.

 
Out of curiousity, why are you so convinced that Ochocinco's value is about to hit the crapper in the near future?
I don't think he's all that valuable NOW. I far prefer guys with some sort of upside in dynasty, and I don't see it with 8 5.You disagree... I know. Next topic?
 
Homer said:
SSOG said:
Out of curiousity, why are you so convinced that Ochocinco's value is about to hit the crapper in the near future?
I don't think he's all that valuable NOW.
I can understand you not liking him long term because he is 31 years old. But right now he is ranked 13th (FBG scoring). What's not to like?
 
I actually place value on Meachem's veteran status. It seems even receivers that show flashes as rookies still have a lot to learn before they can hit the next level. Many don't establish themselves as fantasy stalwarts until year 3 or 4, with obvious notable exceptions like Boldin, Colston, and Bowe. Guys like White, Wayne, and S.Rice started a bit slowly for whatever reasons - QB play, health, lack of polish - but after a few years of learning and hard work it all came together. With Meachem I see a guy that has worked extremely hard and is finally seeing the opportunity showcase the talent that has always been there. I like a guy that's humble and eager to improve, particularly at the receiver position.

I'm not sure how this debate has been strung out so long. If you're not sold, fine. If you are, just sit tight and enjoy. No amount of referencing other players is going to change Meachem's future performance. Let's just watch.

 
Homer said:
SSOG said:
Out of curiousity, why are you so convinced that Ochocinco's value is about to hit the crapper in the near future?
I don't think he's all that valuable NOW.
I can understand you not liking him long term because he is 31 years old. But right now he is ranked 13th (FBG scoring). What's not to like?
I am simply not impressed by guys who are very good at averaging 70 receiving yards with intermittent TD's. He's a rich man's D. Mason in a similarly hamstrung offense. If outpointing another guy's 2nd WR 7-5 wins you dynasty games, well, bully for you, buy I'd rather bet on a guy like Harvin or Bowe that MIGHT blow up. That they've been PRETTY good most weeks when they DON'T is gravy.Please, keep on looking for 30+ WR's posting "WR 13" mostly yardage based #'s. That ain't gonna WIN you much of anything.
 
Homer said:
SSOG said:
Out of curiousity, why are you so convinced that Ochocinco's value is about to hit the crapper in the near future?
I don't think he's all that valuable NOW.
I can understand you not liking him long term because he is 31 years old. But right now he is ranked 13th (FBG scoring). What's not to like?
I am simply not impressed by guys who are very good at averaging 70 receiving yards with intermittent TD's. He's a rich man's D. Mason in a similarly hamstrung offense. If outpointing another guy's 2nd WR 7-5 wins you dynasty games, well, bully for you, buy I'd rather bet on a guy like Harvin or Bowe that MIGHT blow up. That they've been PRETTY good most weeks when they DON'T is gravy.Please, keep on looking for 30+ WR's posting "WR 13" mostly yardage based #'s. That ain't gonna WIN you much of anything.
We all get that you don't like Ochocinco. I'll even accept arguments against him continuing to produce for another 3 or 4 years at this level of production. However, when you start making statements like this one about the uselessness of a guy that's going to get you ~1100-1300 yds & ~8-10 TDs on the season, then you've either got a phenomenal group of WRs already, or you're just :fishing: at this point. Give it a rest already, the guy certainly can help you win, heck he was the difference maker in a head to head game last week where an opponent in one league knocked me down from division winner expecting a week 14 bye, to the top wildcard fighting for my postseason life this weekend. He sure helped my opponent and significantly hurt my chances of finishing in the money.
 
Homer said:
SSOG said:
Out of curiousity, why are you so convinced that Ochocinco's value is about to hit the crapper in the near future?
I don't think he's all that valuable NOW.
I can understand you not liking him long term because he is 31 years old. But right now he is ranked 13th (FBG scoring). What's not to like?
I am simply not impressed by guys who are very good at averaging 70 receiving yards with intermittent TD's. He's a rich man's D. Mason in a similarly hamstrung offense. If outpointing another guy's 2nd WR 7-5 wins you dynasty games, well, bully for you, buy I'd rather bet on a guy like Harvin or Bowe that MIGHT blow up. That they've been PRETTY good most weeks when they DON'T is gravy.Please, keep on looking for 30+ WR's posting "WR 13" mostly yardage based #'s. That ain't gonna WIN you much of anything.
We all get that you don't like Ochocinco. I'll even accept arguments against him continuing to produce for another 3 or 4 years at this level of production. However, when you start making statements like this one about the uselessness of a guy that's going to get you ~1100-1300 yds & ~8-10 TDs on the season, then you've either got a phenomenal group of WRs already, or you're just :fishing: at this point. Give it a rest already, the guy certainly can help you win, heck he was the difference maker in a head to head game last week where an opponent in one league knocked me down from division winner expecting a week 14 bye, to the top wildcard fighting for my postseason life this weekend. He sure helped my opponent and significantly hurt my chances of finishing in the money.
He was garbage the 3 games before that. He was garbage the whole season of 2008. His game last week was a wet dream for the rest of his fantasy existence, and just propping up the "on pace for 70 receiving yards a game WHOO HOOO crowd here.Two defenders just ran into each other trying to tackle D. Mason, and he stumbled to a 60+ yard TD. I'd bet 15 Mario Manningham futures that that will NEVER happen again!
 
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Ocho is just another in a long line of players whose value is much higher to his owner than to others. When you own him, you know those big blow-up games he has are critical to your success. When you don't own him, you just see a number of ho-hum games and ignore the blow-ups.

 
We all get that you don't like Ochocinco. I'll even accept arguments against him continuing to produce for another 3 or 4 years at this level of production. However, when you start making statements like this one about the uselessness of a guy that's going to get you ~1100-1300 yds & ~8-10 TDs on the season, then you've either got a phenomenal group of WRs already, or you're just :confused: at this point. Give it a rest already, the guy certainly can help you win, heck he was the difference maker in a head to head game last week where an opponent in one league knocked me down from division winner expecting a week 14 bye, to the top wildcard fighting for my postseason life this weekend. He sure helped my opponent and significantly hurt my chances of finishing in the money.
He was garbage the 3 games before that. He was garbage the whole season of 2008. His game last week was a wet dream for the rest of his fantasy existence, and just propping up the "on pace for 70 receiving yards a game WHOO HOOO crowd here.Two defenders just ran into each other trying to tackle D. Mason, and he stumbled to a 60+ yard TD. I'd bet 15 Mario Manningham futures that that will NEVER happen again!
Good Grief! :hophead: 2008 has already been discussed ad nauseam, and Chad is tracking similarly to his career averages, despite the '09 Bengals reliance upon defense and the running game... Have fun with your stinky bait, I'll look elsewhere for thoughtful discussions and well reasoned arguments.Good day, sir!
 
Ocho is just another in a long line of players whose value is much higher to his owner than to others. When you own him, you know those big blow-up games he has are critical to your success. When you don't own him, you just see a number of ho-hum games and ignore the blow-ups.
There's at least a dozen WRs I'ld take before him, and I wouldn't want to build a dynasty team around him, but regardless of his 'inconsistency', when all is said and done the guy can help you win your league. I own him in a dynasty league and he's an enormous value as my 3rd WR in that league; in another re-draft league that I alluded to in an earlier post, the owner that runs him out as his 2nd WR every week is running away with total points this season (despite the apparent albatross that 85 appears to be according to some around here). A lot of owners under valued him entering this season and those that capitalized on his return to meaningful production are laughing there way into the playoffs with him.It's fine to criticize those who overvalued him if you like, but to say that he has little value and that a fantasy team can't succeed with him while he puts up WR13 numbers thus far on the season, does not compute. Maybe you or someone else has valued him too highly as a #1 WR, but I don't know anyone doing that these days. Nor do know of anyone arguing that he's going to displace Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald as a top tier dynasty WR. It's just mind-boggling to me that he gets as much flak around here as he does while he continues to produce meaningful stats to the benefit of the Bengals offense and to fantasy owners who roster him as their 2nd or 3rd WR and got him as a great value allowing them to stock pile talent at other positions. He was the very definition of value this year. Color me officially shuked :goodposting: by all the hate.
 
He's won me two dynasty championships and I'm in position for two more this year, so no hate coming from me. I don't think there's much hate toward Ocho - in fact, I think all of the regulars in here rank him in the 10-20 range.

Edit - F&L has him 20.

 
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Give it a rest already
No kidding. For some reason this guy believes Ocho is a guy people had to build around. The guy was a phenomenal buy this offseason as Fitzpatrick shattered his value.Getting borderline WR1's for peanuts win you leagues. The point is to win leagues. That 30+ WR line won't get you anywhere. If anything, these are the guys you can always get dirt cheap while others go the young WR route & when they don't pan out right away they get discouraged and deal for pennies on the dollar [s.Rice/R.Meachem/M.Sims-Walker/R.White [considered a bust until emerging] etc.....Have yourself a good season.
 
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He's won me two dynasty championships and I'm in position for two more this year, so no hate coming from me. I don't think there's much hate toward Ocho - in fact, I think all of the regulars in here rank him in the 10-20 range.Edit - F&L has him 20.
OK. My apologies then. Sometimes it's easy to misinterpret what someone has written. I thought you were weighing in on the side of Homer and the short-sighted "Ocho-Stinko" :points to 2008 stats: crowd. I read your "value is much higher to his owner than to others" comment as piggybacking on an earlier post, and thought you were affriming that point of view.
 
He's won me two dynasty championships and I'm in position for two more this year, so no hate coming from me. I don't think there's much hate toward Ocho - in fact, I think all of the regulars in here rank him in the 10-20 range.Edit - F&L has him 20.
OK. My apologies then. Sometimes it's easy to misinterpret what someone has written. I thought you were weighing in on the side of Homer and the short-sighted "Ocho-Stinko" :points to 2008 stats: crowd. I read your "value is much higher to his owner than to others" comment as piggybacking on an earlier post, and thought you were affriming that point of view.
No worries. But I stand by my statement - there's no way I could convince someone to trade me what he's worth. He's a plug-in-him-and-forget-it player who routinely makes a difference in my fantasy games. Other owners think of last year, his age, and his antics and don't want him. Fine with me.
 
He's won me two dynasty championships and I'm in position for two more this year, so no hate coming from me. I don't think there's much hate toward Ocho - in fact, I think all of the regulars in here rank him in the 10-20 range.Edit - F&L has him 20.
OK. My apologies then. Sometimes it's easy to misinterpret what someone has written. I thought you were weighing in on the side of Homer and the short-sighted "Ocho-Stinko" :points to 2008 stats: crowd. I read your "value is much higher to his owner than to others" comment as piggybacking on an earlier post, and thought you were affriming that point of view.
No worries. But I stand by my statement - there's no way I could convince someone to trade me what he's worth. He's a plug-in-him-and-forget-it player who routinely makes a difference in my fantasy games. Other owners think of last year, his age, and his antics and don't want him. Fine with me.
THIS :goodposting:
 
Homer said:
SSOG said:
Out of curiousity, why are you so convinced that Ochocinco's value is about to hit the crapper in the near future?
I don't think he's all that valuable NOW. I far prefer guys with some sort of upside in dynasty, and I don't see it with 8 5.You disagree... I know. Next topic?
You say that Ochocinco doesn't have any sort of upside over what he's currently producing. I say so what? He's currently fantasy WR13 coming into this week. Even if he presents no upside over that, there are only 12 WRs in any given season that can produce more than WR13. You might prefer 36 other WRs that you think can make it into that top 12, but the reality is that 66% of them won't.I also don't see why Ochocinco has no upside over what he's currently producing. He's produced higher than that 2 years ago. He produced higher than that 3 years ago. He produced higher than that 4 years ago. He produced higher than that 5 years ago. He produced higher than that 6 years ago. He had five straight top-10 finishes. I understand that the memory of last year is lingering strongly in your mind, but the reality is that this year proves last year was an aberration. I don't know how you can say that a still-young WR with 5 top-10 finishes in the last 6 seasons has no upside beyond WR13.I'm really confused about what upside other WRs have that Chad doesn't. Obviously you don't like yards for some bizarre reason, despite the fact that they score points, too. So your criticism of Ochocinco is that he doesn't score enough TDs? Throw out last year's terrible season and pro-rate this season and Ocho has averaged 8.5 TDs a year. How many WRs do you honestly think have a chance to average more than that? Seriously. By my count, the only four guys who I think can average better than that are Fitzgerald, Moss, Jackson, and Calvin. Maybe Rice, too. Maybe not. 8.5 is a lot of TDs for a WR to average, certainly top 10 at the position.
 
yardage #;s are fantasy LCD. Many leagues minimize them. 85's only ad over a guy like Mason is td's. Think 1-2 a year...

There's zero upside for 85 above 70 yards in any given week, max 1 td every other game. IF you start 2 wr's, he's borderline irrelavant, as one can pick wr #31 any given week for a random td to =/marginalize him.

I don't do flex leagues. Maybe you're biased by your flex-ppr pinball scoring?

 
week 14 are playoffs for some:

ricky w. vs. shonn g., 14-5

Am sure shonn g will make it up, tho, in 2011 playoffs...

 
week 14 are playoffs for some:ricky w. vs. shonn g., 14-5Am sure shonn g will make it up, tho, in 2011 playoffs...
Please don't toss your hat into the ring on this particular argument. I happen to be on the side that advocated dealing for Ricky Williams all along and if you are going to continue posting like you have over this Chad Ocho Cinco debate, I would prefer you not hurt the argument with your terrible, unintelligent, and generally poorly thought out posts. It is incredibly clear from your continued Ocho Cinco rantings that you care nothing for actual stats, track record, overall consensus, or even common sense for that matter, eschewing any factual data and the obvious and established track record to instead spout off inane and outlandish statements that provide nothing other than a clear and apparent bias that goes well beyond all evidence to the contrary. So if it is all the same to you, I would prefer you not hitch your wagon to any argument I was making earlier.That being said, the Ricky Williams argument is probably one that should be brought back up, but not quite yet. Let's see how he performs through the duration of the fantasy playoffs and then reassess whether dealing for him was a prudent move or not.
 
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week 14 are playoffs for some:ricky w. vs. shonn g., 14-5Am sure shonn g will make it up, tho, in 2011 playoffs...
Please don't toss your hat into the ring on this particular argument. I happen to be on the side that advocated dealing for Ricky Williams all along and if you are going to continue posting like you have over this Chad Ocho Cinco debate, I would prefer you not hurt the argument with your terrible, unintelligent, and generally poorly thought out posts. It is incredibly clear from your continued Ocho Cinco rantings that you care nothing for actual stats, track record, overall consensus, or even common sense for that matter, eschewing any factual data and the obvious and established track record to instead spout off inane and outlandish statements that provide nothing other than a clear and apparent bias that goes well beyond all evidence to the contrary. So if it is all the same to you, I would prefer you not hitch your wagon to any argument I was making earlier.That being said, the Ricky Williams argument is probably one that should be brought back up, but not quite yet. Let's see how he performs through the duration of the fantasy playoffs and then reassess whether dealing for him was a prudent move or not.
I was the man on the cliff pimping ricky w. (suggesting that shonn g was a no-brainer trade) as the dynasty buy of ALL time in between the miles a > 8 5 , fast forward to 85 STILL SUKCS stuff
 
week 14 are playoffs for some:ricky w. vs. shonn g., 14-5Am sure shonn g will make it up, tho, in 2011 playoffs...
Please don't toss your hat into the ring on this particular argument. I happen to be on the side that advocated dealing for Ricky Williams all along and if you are going to continue posting like you have over this Chad Ocho Cinco debate, I would prefer you not hurt the argument with your terrible, unintelligent, and generally poorly thought out posts. It is incredibly clear from your continued Ocho Cinco rantings that you care nothing for actual stats, track record, overall consensus, or even common sense for that matter, eschewing any factual data and the obvious and established track record to instead spout off inane and outlandish statements that provide nothing other than a clear and apparent bias that goes well beyond all evidence to the contrary. So if it is all the same to you, I would prefer you not hitch your wagon to any argument I was making earlier.
:goodposting: I've wanted to say the exact same thing to some other posters over the last few days.
 
So you like 30 year old 2nd string RBs but not 31 year old top 20 WR's. Got it. :goodposting: :pickle:
If you can't understand the difference between a top-tier THIS CRUNCH TIME uber-cheap RB #1 vs. a mid-2nd tier now, long term nuthin like 8 5, i will pre-pay your expension fee into the next dynasty league of your choice...
 
Impressive stuff, Homer. Maybe you can start your own dynasty thread to spread your infinite wisdom.

 
SSOG, 8 5 vs. D. Mason, compare and contrast:

How low can you go?
First I'll do a contrast, then I'll do a comparison.Contrast:

I. Ochocinco is *MUCH* more talented than Mason ever was

..A. Pro Bowls

.....i. Ochocinco has 5 pro bowls as a receiver

.....ii. Mason has 1 pro bowl as a receiver (although he has one more as a punt returner)

..B. All Pros

.....i. Ochocinco is a 2 time first team and 1 time second team AP All Pro

.....ii. Mason has never made a first or second team AP All Pro list as a receiver (although he made one as a punt returner)

II. Ochocinco has been *MUCH* more productive than Mason ever was

..A. Yardage

.....i. Ochocinco has topped 1200 receiving yards 5 times (and is on pace for a 6th)

.....ii. Mason has topped 1200 receiving yards once (and is not on pace to do so this year)

..B. Touchdowns

.....i. Ochocinco holds the lead in 6+ TD seasons, 6-3

.....ii. Ochocinco holds the lead in 7+ TD seasons, 6-3

.....iii. Ochocinco holds the lead in 8+ TD seasons, 4-2

.....iv. Ochocinco holds the lead in 9+ TD seasons, 3-1

.....v. Ochocinco holds the lead in 10+ TD seasons, 1-0

..C. Fantasy Points

.....i. Including this season, Ochocinco leads in top-10 finishes 5-1

.....ii. Including this season, Ochocinco leads in top-20 finishes 7-3

III. Ochocinco is MUCH younger than Mason is

..A. Age

.....i. Ochocinco is 31.

.....ii. Derrick Mason is 35.

..B. Recency of Production

.....i. Ochocinco is 2 years removed from a fantasy WR1 finish.

.....ii. Derrick Mason is 6 years removed from a fantasy WR1 finish.

..C. Expected future output

.....i. Based on historical aging patterns, Ochocinco has at least 4 years left of fantasy relevant production.

.....ii. Based on historical aging patterns, Mason has at most 1 year left of fantasy relevant production.

IV. Ochocinco holds MUCH more fantasy value than Mason does

..A. Chad Ochocinco is a top 20 dynasty WR.

..B. Derrick Mason is not a top 40 dynasty WR.

Comparison:

I. Chad Ochocinco and Derrick Mason both play Wide Receiver in the National Football League

 
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I'll bite, how many bonus points does your league reward for:

a: this year's "all-pro-bowl" selections?

b: last year's (whoops, sumthing happened, uhhm, uhhh...)

c: multiple years past arbitrary awards based on weekly yardage averages --- DING DING DING

EBF: Ricky W. struck a blow that Shonn G will likely will never answer -- a foerarm shiver in a meaningful ff ball week. If you started SG today, hope you're closer to the top TWO in next year's draft than top 4 (at which point you will simply draft THIS YEAR'S VERSION of Shonnnn Greeneeee).

 
I'll bite, how many bonus points does your league reward for:a: this year's "all-pro-bowl" selections?b: last year's (whoops, sumthing happened, uhhm, uhhh...)c: multiple years past arbitrary awards based on weekly yardage averages --- DING DING DINGEBF: Ricky W. struck a blow that Shonn G will likely will never answer -- a foerarm shiver in a meaningful ff ball week. If you started SG today, hope you're closer to the top TWO in next year's draft than top 4 (at which point you will simply draft THIS YEAR'S VERSION of Shonnnn Greeneeee).
I saw what you did there.
 
Answer to thread "What dynasty Rb's do you COVET? thread..

Homer said:
Ricky Williams.I'd trade Knowshon for him 10 times a week and 4x on Sunday if that put me over the top this year.
Someone joined in on that thread and this one saying Shonn Greeenneee eas >>> ricky w. I tripled down on that bet, nominating knowshon. The Shon G bet looks imPECCABLE about now. I still think knowshon adds 0 value above what ricky w does this year
 
Answer to thread "What dynasty Rb's do you COVET? thread..

Homer said:
Ricky Williams.I'd trade Knowshon for him 10 times a week and 4x on Sunday if that put me over the top this year.
Someone joined in on that thread and this one saying Shonn Greeenneee eas >>> ricky w. I tripled down on that bet, nominating knowshon. The Shon G bet looks imPECCABLE about now. I still think knowshon adds 0 value above what ricky w does this year
I never knew that any leagues held their superbowl in week 14.Like I said at the time of the Ricky Williams discussion... a lot of teams would win whether they had Ricky or not. A lot of teams would lose whether they had Ricky or not. The only way the Williams trade pans out is if your team would have LOST without him, and WON with him. That's going to be the bottom line at the end of the season. If your team falls into that bucket, then Greene for Williams was a good trade. If your team doesn't, then Greene for Williams wasn't. With that in mind, week 14 is far too soon to be revisiting that particular discussion.
 
EBF: Ricky W. struck a blow that Shonn G will likely will never answer -- a foerarm shiver in a meaningful ff ball week. If you started SG today, hope you're closer to the top TWO in next year's draft than top 4 (at which point you will simply draft THIS YEAR'S VERSION of Shonnnn Greeneeee).
I don't think anyone thought Greene would outscore Ricky this season. Greene has played well in limited duty. I like his chances in 2010 and beyond.
 
SSOG, 8 5 vs. D. Mason, compare and contrast:

How low can you go?
First I'll do a contrast, then I'll do a comparison.Contrast:

I. Ochocinco is *MUCH* more talented than Mason ever was

..A. Pro Bowls

.....i. Ochocinco has 5 pro bowls as a receiver

.....ii. Mason has 1 pro bowl as a receiver (although he has one more as a punt returner)

..B. All Pros

.....i. Ochocinco is a 2 time first team and 1 time second team AP All Pro

.....ii. Mason has never made a first or second team AP All Pro list as a receiver (although he made one as a punt returner)

II. Ochocinco has been *MUCH* more productive than Mason ever was

..A. Yardage

.....i. Ochocinco has topped 1200 receiving yards 5 times (and is on pace for a 6th)

.....ii. Mason has topped 1200 receiving yards once (and is not on pace to do so this year)

..B. Touchdowns

.....i. Ochocinco holds the lead in 6+ TD seasons, 6-3

.....ii. Ochocinco holds the lead in 7+ TD seasons, 6-3

.....iii. Ochocinco holds the lead in 8+ TD seasons, 4-2

.....iv. Ochocinco holds the lead in 9+ TD seasons, 3-1

.....v. Ochocinco holds the lead in 10+ TD seasons, 1-0

..C. Fantasy Points

.....i. Including this season, Ochocinco leads in top-10 finishes 5-1

.....ii. Including this season, Ochocinco leads in top-20 finishes 7-3

III. Ochocinco is MUCH younger than Mason is

..A. Age

.....i. Ochocinco is 31.

.....ii. Derrick Mason is 35.

..B. Recency of Production

.....i. Ochocinco is 2 years removed from a fantasy WR1 finish.

.....ii. Derrick Mason is 6 years removed from a fantasy WR1 finish.

..C. Expected future output

.....i. Based on historical aging patterns, Ochocinco has at least 4 years left of fantasy relevant production.

.....ii. Based on historical aging patterns, Mason has at most 1 year left of fantasy relevant production.

IV. Ochocinco holds MUCH more fantasy value than Mason does

..A. Chad Ochocinco is a top 20 dynasty WR.

..B. Derrick Mason is not a top 40 dynasty WR.

Comparison:

I. Chad Ochocinco and Derrick Mason both play Wide Receiver in the National Football League
SSOG pretty much owns this argument. Let's move on to something else.
 
Randy Moss. Dynasty Value. Discuss.

He appears to have ended the fantasy playoffs for many of his owners this weekend (me included). I traded for this guy to put me over the top, and instead he was the lead weight that pulled me to the bottom. I'm obviously reacting emotionally at this point, so wanted to get insight from more level-headed folks in this thread.

I had Moss squarely in tier 2 and someone that I generally avoided because of (1) age and (2) knucklehead factor. I gradually came around as he was good citizen even with Brady out last season. Bellichick seemed to have tamed him. And then I started to come around regarding his age based on good arguments in the OchoCinco debate.

But now I am back to thinking that the knucklehead factor means you should only grab Randy Moss if he can be had at a discount. Of course, he may be available at that discount how. This week may be the time to trade for him in dynasty. But I'm leaning towards staying away completely.

I think we could have the same discussion about Brandon Marshall. What a dominant game today. Living up to the Baby TO nickname by breaking TO's record for catches. But if F&L holds him back because of the knucklehead factor, why not push Moss back too?

 
Randy Moss. Dynasty Value. Discuss.He appears to have ended the fantasy playoffs for many of his owners this weekend (me included). I traded for this guy to put me over the top, and instead he was the lead weight that pulled me to the bottom. I'm obviously reacting emotionally at this point, so wanted to get insight from more level-headed folks in this thread.I had Moss squarely in tier 2 and someone that I generally avoided because of (1) age and (2) knucklehead factor. I gradually came around as he was good citizen even with Brady out last season. Bellichick seemed to have tamed him. And then I started to come around regarding his age based on good arguments in the OchoCinco debate.But now I am back to thinking that the knucklehead factor means you should only grab Randy Moss if he can be had at a discount. Of course, he may be available at that discount how. This week may be the time to trade for him in dynasty. But I'm leaning towards staying away completely.I think we could have the same discussion about Brandon Marshall. What a dominant game today. Living up to the Baby TO nickname by breaking TO's record for catches. But if F&L holds him back because of the knucklehead factor, why not push Moss back too?
PPR: Low level WR1. Had Welker ahead of him before the season & more so now. Welker's so consistent & come crunch time in the playoffs [where weather plays a bigger factor, I see less variance with Welker's performance, running the underneaths]. I think WR2 (or WR3, however you want to look at it) is one of the things the Pats have to look at this offseason [among other holes]. Eventual Moss replacement & they do need another weapon besides Moss/Welker in present.i'd have taken Marshall over Moss before the year, but now it's not really even a question.
 
man, can we get this homer guy out of the thread?

That said...what do we all think about Jamaal Charles' future?

He's been doing very well lately, and this offseason I tried (successfully) to obtain him in as many leagues as I could. It looks to be paying off...but does anybody think he's just been flukey-good because of a really great schedule?

ETA: and because Bowe's suspension made him the only offensive option?

 
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man, can we get this homer guy out of the thread?That said...what do we all think about Jamaal Charles' future?He's been doing very well lately, and this offseason I tried (successfully) to obtain him in as many leagues as I could. It looks to be paying off...but does anybody think he's just been flukey-good because of a really great schedule?ETA: and because Bowe's suspension made him the only offensive option?
I think the future is bright. He's shouldering the load just fine and averaging 5.2 per clip behind what certainly appeared to be a crap O-line before he was the one running the ball behind it.Obviously the facts that he catches the ball and can break the long run are plusses.But what people might be missing is that he's been a freak in short-yardage situations so far as well. After today's game I believe he's been targeted or rushed the ball nine times in 3rd or 4th downs and 1 to 2 yards to go situations. In those nine plays he has eight first downs. Small sample size, but a very good sign given the state of the o-line and that the questions about him relate to size.
 
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Randy Moss. Dynasty Value. Discuss.

He appears to have ended the fantasy playoffs for many of his owners this weekend (me included). I traded for this guy to put me over the top, and instead he was the lead weight that pulled me to the bottom. I'm obviously reacting emotionally at this point, so wanted to get insight from more level-headed folks in this thread.

I had Moss squarely in tier 2 and someone that I generally avoided because of (1) age and (2) knucklehead factor. I gradually came around as he was good citizen even with Brady out last season. Bellichick seemed to have tamed him. And then I started to come around regarding his age based on good arguments in the OchoCinco debate.

But now I am back to thinking that the knucklehead factor means you should only grab Randy Moss if he can be had at a discount. Of course, he may be available at that discount how. This week may be the time to trade for him in dynasty. But I'm leaning towards staying away completely.

I think we could have the same discussion about Brandon Marshall. What a dominant game today. Living up to the Baby TO nickname by breaking TO's record for catches. But if F&L holds him back because of the knucklehead factor, why not push Moss back too?
I talked a little bit about how I expect Randy Moss to age right here, and a bit about how I valued him right here. Basically, the upshot was that I had him ranked highly because I figured he'd be lapping the field by a large enough margin that I could overlook his age. Since he wasn't lapping the field, I knocked him down a rung or two. Since then, he's picked it back up, but he's really been performing like a first among equals at the top, rather than a clearly superior force like in 2007. As a result, I can't justify ranking him higher than the 6-10 range. Actually, we're getting closer to the end of the season, so it might be time to lower him a touch again as part of the annual "another year older" adjustment that all older players go through.The whole "bad game in the playoffs" phenomenon, by the way, is a big reason why I didn't think it was wise to trade a valuable asset for Ricky Williams. Even the best players have off days. The big risk you run when trading an 80+ game asset for an 8 game asset is that a single bad game is essentially the same as an entire bad season for the younger player.

 
Randy Moss. Dynasty Value. Discuss.

He appears to have ended the fantasy playoffs for many of his owners this weekend (me included). I traded for this guy to put me over the top, and instead he was the lead weight that pulled me to the bottom. I'm obviously reacting emotionally at this point, so wanted to get insight from more level-headed folks in this thread.

I had Moss squarely in tier 2 and someone that I generally avoided because of (1) age and (2) knucklehead factor. I gradually came around as he was good citizen even with Brady out last season. Bellichick seemed to have tamed him. And then I started to come around regarding his age based on good arguments in the OchoCinco debate.

But now I am back to thinking that the knucklehead factor means you should only grab Randy Moss if he can be had at a discount. Of course, he may be available at that discount how. This week may be the time to trade for him in dynasty. But I'm leaning towards staying away completely.

I think we could have the same discussion about Brandon Marshall. What a dominant game today. Living up to the Baby TO nickname by breaking TO's record for catches. But if F&L holds him back because of the knucklehead factor, why not push Moss back too?
I talked a little bit about how I expect Randy Moss to age right here, and a bit about how I valued him right here. Basically, the upshot was that I had him ranked highly because I figured he'd be lapping the field by a large enough margin that I could overlook his age. Since he wasn't lapping the field, I knocked him down a rung or two. Since then, he's picked it back up, but he's really been performing like a first among equals at the top, rather than a clearly superior force like in 2007. As a result, I can't justify ranking him higher than the 6-10 range. Actually, we're getting closer to the end of the season, so it might be time to lower him a touch again as part of the annual "another year older" adjustment that all older players go through.The whole "bad game in the playoffs" phenomenon, by the way, is a big reason why I didn't think it was wise to trade a valuable asset for Ricky Williams. Even the best players have off days. The big risk you run when trading an 80+ game asset for an 8 game asset is that a single bad game is essentially the same as an entire bad season for the younger player.
Thanks, well said.As for the "bad game in the playoffs" comments, I think trading for Moss is a little different than Ricky Williams. I wouldn't have had the same faith in Williams to do well in the playoffs as Moss. While Moss isn't lapping the field, he has been a difference maker. And there are bad games, and then there is a -1 (from a WR!). If Moss went out and put up 3-30, I could live with that because that happens to even the best. But -1? That's just "rip your heart out" brutal. I can only hope Fitz has a "bad game" tomorrow and spares me a painful exit.

 
As for the "bad game in the playoffs" comments, I think trading for Moss is a little different than Ricky Williams. I wouldn't have had the same faith in Williams to do well in the playoffs as Moss. While Moss isn't lapping the field, he has been a difference maker. And there are bad games, and then there is a -1 (from a WR!). If Moss went out and put up 3-30, I could live with that because that happens to even the best. But -1? That's just "rip your heart out" brutal. I can only hope Fitz has a "bad game" tomorrow and spares me a painful exit.
For me it was the opposite. I've had a lot more faith in Ricky to do well in the playoffs whereas I've had faith in Moss to maintain value for the next couple of years.Re: Marshall vs. Moss knucklehead. Moss has never changed. He's always been a guy who demands the ball, and when he doesn't get the ball he mopes. Regardless of whom you want to blame, he should be getting the ball. He also shouldn't be acting like a baby when he doesn't get it. But, still, the fact remains that nothing has changed. When it was wine and roses with the Pats in 2007, he was getting the ball. Now he's not. Divas need attention. And Moss is definitely a diva.

Marshall, on the other hand, might be arrested before we wake up in the morning.

 
man, can we get this homer guy out of the thread?

That said...what do we all think about Jamaal Charles' future?

He's been doing very well lately, and this offseason I tried (successfully) to obtain him in as many leagues as I could. It looks to be paying off...but does anybody think he's just been flukey-good because of a really great schedule?

ETA: and because Bowe's suspension made him the only offensive option?
I think the future is bright. He's shouldering the load just fine and averaging 5.2 per clip behind what certainly appeared to be a crap O-line before he was the one running the ball behind it.Obviously the facts that he catches the ball and can break the long run are plusses.

But what people might be missing is that he's been a freak in short-yardage situations so far as well. After today's game I believe he's been targeted or rushed the ball nine times in 3rd or 4th downs and 1 to 2 yards to go situations. In those nine plays he has eight first downs. Small sample size, but a very good sign given the state of the o-line and that the questions about him relate to size.
I agree with all of the above and think Charles has what it takes to be a stud. This is what i had to say about him in the bandwagon thread:"Charles is guaranteed to be a 3rd down back, which is ideal in a Todd Haley offense; but the Cheifs also used him in goal line situations last week: including on 4th and 1 (which resulted in a 44 yard TD) and on their sole red zone possession.

His size, and running style is very similar to Chris Johnson imo. Although Johnson has a significantly better O-line."

The one negative thing i see happening in the future is that the Cheifs are pretty much guaranteed to get a new RB next year whether it be through free agency or the draft seeing as Kolby Smith, and Dantrelle Savage are very weak even as backups. So chances are they are going to obtain a big RB who could plausibly take goal-line carries away despite Charles' success in that regard up to this point.

No matter what happens i like the kids future.

 
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Marshall, on the other hand, might be arrested before we wake up in the morning.
This is a key distinction between the two. Randy Moss does a lot of stupid things, alienates a lot of people, whines and pouts and generally acts like a spoiled 2 year old... but he doesn't have a pattern of behavior that will possibly keep him off of the football field. In fact, through his career, it's possible that all his antics have done is get him MORE targets. As a (now former) Randy Moss owner, I didn't care if he mooned the crowd at Green Bay or talked about how he smokes pot still in interviews- end zone celebrations only rate a fine (his money, not mine), never a suspension, and all of his talk was just that- talk. He never ran afoul of the substance abuse policy, so let him talk all he wants if that helps him maintain his street cred.Brandon Marshall's poor behavior, on the other hand, *DOES* present a serious risk of preventing him from seeing the football field. It's already kept him off the football field once, and he's reached the point where one more personal conduct transgression means at least half a season gone, possibly even a full season. And the simple fact is that I don't trust him to control himself. Once upon a time, yeah, I would have given him the benefit of the doubt. He claimed he was in a toxic relationship, he said his girlfriend was out to get him, he said he was severing all ties and surrounding himself with better influences. Then he got into a domestic dispute with his NEW girlfriend (fiance, actually). Which means either that "toxic relationship" spin was just that- spin- or else he's now currently engaged in yet another "toxic relationship". Either way, it amounts to the same thing- he's a ticking time bomb, another domestic dispute just waiting to happen. And when it does happen (and I seriously believe it's more a question of when than if), he's gone for 8 games, 16 games, who knows how long.It's been long enough since Marshall's name was in the news that a lot of owners are forgetting, but Goodell doesn't forget. One slip up and the media will dig up the whole sordid history and plaster it all over ESPN again, and Goodell's hand will be forced. And even if he doesn't slip up for another couple of years, it's not like that's his only issue- images of him batting down balls in practice and jogging his routes during full-speed offensive reps are still fresh in my mind. I've got Marshall a bit higher than F&L (not much, but a little bit) because he's going to be a real difference maker until such time as he does something stupid, but he's not someone that I would want to rely on as a cornerstone of my team. Awesome WR2, but a liability as a WR1.
 
Marshall, on the other hand, might be arrested before we wake up in the morning.
This is a key distinction between the two. Randy Moss does a lot of stupid things, alienates a lot of people, whines and pouts and generally acts like a spoiled 2 year old... but he doesn't have a pattern of behavior that will possibly keep him off of the football field. In fact, through his career, it's possible that all his antics have done is get him MORE targets. As a (now former) Randy Moss owner, I didn't care if he mooned the crowd at Green Bay or talked about how he smokes pot still in interviews- end zone celebrations only rate a fine (his money, not mine), never a suspension, and all of his talk was just that- talk. He never ran afoul of the substance abuse policy, so let him talk all he wants if that helps him maintain his street cred.Brandon Marshall's poor behavior, on the other hand, *DOES* present a serious risk of preventing him from seeing the football field. It's already kept him off the football field once, and he's reached the point where one more personal conduct transgression means at least half a season gone, possibly even a full season. And the simple fact is that I don't trust him to control himself. Once upon a time, yeah, I would have given him the benefit of the doubt. He claimed he was in a toxic relationship, he said his girlfriend was out to get him, he said he was severing all ties and surrounding himself with better influences. Then he got into a domestic dispute with his NEW girlfriend (fiance, actually). Which means either that "toxic relationship" spin was just that- spin- or else he's now currently engaged in yet another "toxic relationship". Either way, it amounts to the same thing- he's a ticking time bomb, another domestic dispute just waiting to happen. And when it does happen (and I seriously believe it's more a question of when than if), he's gone for 8 games, 16 games, who knows how long.It's been long enough since Marshall's name was in the news that a lot of owners are forgetting, but Goodell doesn't forget. One slip up and the media will dig up the whole sordid history and plaster it all over ESPN again, and Goodell's hand will be forced. And even if he doesn't slip up for another couple of years, it's not like that's his only issue- images of him batting down balls in practice and jogging his routes during full-speed offensive reps are still fresh in my mind. I've got Marshall a bit higher than F&L (not much, but a little bit) because he's going to be a real difference maker until such time as he does something stupid, but he's not someone that I would want to rely on as a cornerstone of my team. Awesome WR2, but a liability as a WR1.
I am not trading him for anything. The "knucklehead" factor is way overplayed. First, you never really know who a knucklehead is. Everyone thought Marvin Harrison was the picture of a gentlemen and then we found out the truth. And, people like Marshall do change for the better and mature. Domestic abuse is a societal problem and one that appears prevalent in the NFL--it isn't a Brandon Marshall problem alone. And Marshall was cleared of charges so I am going to accept that he is innocent.Bottom line is that you guys have been talking about the knucklehead factor for several years now and I just keep playing Marshall and enjoying top ten performances. I also think that McDaniels (whom I didn't like to begin) has been a positive influence. Marshall all season has been saying the right things and doing the right things on the field.
 
Marshall, on the other hand, might be arrested before we wake up in the morning.
This is a key distinction between the two. Randy Moss does a lot of stupid things, alienates a lot of people, whines and pouts and generally acts like a spoiled 2 year old... but he doesn't have a pattern of behavior that will possibly keep him off of the football field. In fact, through his career, it's possible that all his antics have done is get him MORE targets. As a (now former) Randy Moss owner, I didn't care if he mooned the crowd at Green Bay or talked about how he smokes pot still in interviews- end zone celebrations only rate a fine (his money, not mine), never a suspension, and all of his talk was just that- talk. He never ran afoul of the substance abuse policy, so let him talk all he wants if that helps him maintain his street cred.Brandon Marshall's poor behavior, on the other hand, *DOES* present a serious risk of preventing him from seeing the football field. It's already kept him off the football field once, and he's reached the point where one more personal conduct transgression means at least half a season gone, possibly even a full season. And the simple fact is that I don't trust him to control himself. Once upon a time, yeah, I would have given him the benefit of the doubt. He claimed he was in a toxic relationship, he said his girlfriend was out to get him, he said he was severing all ties and surrounding himself with better influences. Then he got into a domestic dispute with his NEW girlfriend (fiance, actually). Which means either that "toxic relationship" spin was just that- spin- or else he's now currently engaged in yet another "toxic relationship". Either way, it amounts to the same thing- he's a ticking time bomb, another domestic dispute just waiting to happen. And when it does happen (and I seriously believe it's more a question of when than if), he's gone for 8 games, 16 games, who knows how long.It's been long enough since Marshall's name was in the news that a lot of owners are forgetting, but Goodell doesn't forget. One slip up and the media will dig up the whole sordid history and plaster it all over ESPN again, and Goodell's hand will be forced. And even if he doesn't slip up for another couple of years, it's not like that's his only issue- images of him batting down balls in practice and jogging his routes during full-speed offensive reps are still fresh in my mind. I've got Marshall a bit higher than F&L (not much, but a little bit) because he's going to be a real difference maker until such time as he does something stupid, but he's not someone that I would want to rely on as a cornerstone of my team. Awesome WR2, but a liability as a WR1.
I am not trading him for anything. The "knucklehead" factor is way overplayed. First, you never really know who a knucklehead is. Everyone thought Marvin Harrison was the picture of a gentlemen and then we found out the truth. And, people like Marshall do change for the better and mature. Domestic abuse is a societal problem and one that appears prevalent in the NFL--it isn't a Brandon Marshall problem alone. And Marshall was cleared of charges so I am going to accept that he is innocent.Bottom line is that you guys have been talking about the knucklehead factor for several years now and I just keep playing Marshall and enjoying top ten performances. I also think that McDaniels (whom I didn't like to begin) has been a positive influence. Marshall all season has been saying the right things and doing the right things on the field.
Starting to see it this way too. If I could get the guy who owns Marshall to trade him I'd do it in a second. He won't. He loves him too much.
 

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