Okay you know I
ya man, so I don’t want you to think I’m piling on or flaming you, I just think we’re coming at this from very different points of view...
Okay, first off, there's quite a bit of misinformation going on here in regards to the Garcon discussion. As this is a dynasty thread and not a Colts one, this will be last response in regards to this topic.
I will certainly admit that the outcome is not 100% certain at this point, so I do hope to see a lot more discussion on Garcon and the Colts young offensive weapons going forward. The Colts passing offense is a golden goose for fantasy football purposes, and it is well worth discussing IMO. However, with debate and examination I sometimes find myself either more secure in my analysis or at other times am forced to reassess my opinions based on quality postings of others, and new data or info that I hadn’t considered previously. Either way, I’m less concerned about winning or losing an argument, than being willing to be flexible and re-form an opinion when appropriate so that I can learn from the exchange and hopefully get the next one right, when a similar situation comes along.All that said, I don’t agree with you or believe that anyone who has contributed to this debate is trying to twist or obscure the facts or ignore any relevant data, or spread "quite a bit of misinformation" here. Instead I would say that we have a different interpretation of the facts/data at this point in time, and a disagreement over how to best interpret the Colts’ WR situation.
Wow. Seriously? Just a few weeks ago in the Pats game the analysts were bemoaning the fact that Garcon was not able to beat single coverage regularly (let alone "dominate" - and keep in mind that was with the better cover corner on Wayne and the safeties all over Clark. And that was the same defensive backfield that got lit up by NO just a couple of weeks ago.
Against NE Garcon caught 3 passes for 50 yards and 1 TD, a fine "fantasy" performance, unfortunately this wasn't a good outing in "reality" because he was targeted 11 times and only came up with 3 receptions. But what else does this outing really tell us?Consider that most WRs in the NFL typically require a year or two of seasoning before they emerge, and even established studs can have a bad game. We are talking about a developing 2nd year player here who essentially ‘redshirted’ his rookie season, and is now in his 1st season as a starter. Keep in mind also that he is making a pretty big transition to go from Div III to starting flanker for one of the NFL’s premier passing attacks on an undefeated Indianapolis Colts squad. That’s a pretty steep learning curve, so I wouldn’t be so quick to base my evaluation of Garcon’s development based on one game, or possibly an over-reliance on a few comments made by TV analysts of a single game. That’s just too small of a sample size and can be a very dangerous practice when forming one’s opinion on a young player’s development. At the very least we should look beyond this small sample size and look to the season in its entirety (or at lest the 3/4 that's been completed thus far).
This big picture approach would seem to indicate that despite a poor outing against NE, Garcon has steadily improved and his role in the offense is being solidified, not diminishing or stagnating. I say this based on the fact that he has been targeted a minimum of 7 times in each of the last 7 games (since the Colts week 6 bye), and has steadily been improving his catch % that you have been particularly concerned about. This fits very well with the theory that Garcon is learning on the job and making the necessary progress to be able to hold down the flanker job in the future. Since the Patriots, Pierre has caught 6/7, 5/7, and 6/10 targets, and in terms of fantasy performance he has now moved into the top 25 in WRs fantasy points scored in non-PPR leagues! That’s higher than Gonzalez’s finish outside the top 40 last season, and it speaks volumes as to the richer opportunities available from the outside as opposed to those availalbe from the slot in this Colts offense. And it speaks volumes more to me in terms of trends going forward, rather than just focusing on the NE game and projecting Garcon to be kicked to the curb or relegated to sharing time upon Gonzo's return.
Along that point, his low catch%/targets is precisely because he is not getting as open (or has not run his routes well and is in the wrong spot). Wayne and Collie both have catch % near 70%, with Clark's being 79% - I don't think Manning suddenly throws worse when he's throwing to Garcon. In case you were wondering, Gonzo's catch %/target - was over 70% his first two seasons.
Also, let's keep in mind his "dominating" performance this past week came against the 31st ranked passing defense.
First off, we've already discussed the fact that Gonzo and Garcon are the same speed - and to further illustrate the point, 15.6 YPC also happens to be the exact same YPC that Gonzo had in his first season. It is simply nonsensical to suggest that two guys that are the same height and have the same speed somehow are different in regards to deep threat ability.
Others have covered the fact that just because two players are the same height and have similarly posted 40 times doesn’t make them or their role in the offense interchangeable, and what I would add once again here, is simply that last season Gonzo did his work primarily out of the slot while Garcon is in Harrison's old spot, and that their differing roles within the same offense have differing impacts on catch %. Just as in any other NFL offense, not all WR roles in this offense offer the same routes, situations, and opportunities.If you really want to make more meaningful comparisons regarding catch % in Indy’s offense, then you need to compare Collie’s 68% this year from the slot to Gonzo’s 71% last year from the slot; and where Garcon is concerned you should compare his catch % with Marvin Harrison’s in prior years. I was only able to find target/catch % info from 2004 on (Marvin’s 9th season til his 13th and final season). Here are Harrison’s catch % from the last 5 seasons: 61%, 62%, 64%, 63%, & 56% respectively while working the outside in Indy.
Obviously Harrison is a HOF caliber WR and Garcon is only in his 2nd year in the NFL, and 1st season as a starter. Therefore if you want an explanation for his sub-60% catch%, then I would suggest it probably has something to do with a young player’s learning curve, rather than proof that Gonzalez or Collie are better receivers. Regardless, over the last five weeks Garcon’s Catch % is 57% (including that stinker against NE) and over the last three its 71%. If Manning and the Colts were overly concerned about Garcon’s catch %, I doubt they would have thrown the ball his direction 59 times over the last 7 games. Either way, for right now I’m not as concerned about catch%, as I am about just seeing growth and signs of improvement as Garcon learns the position and develops a rapport with Manning. Happily that appears to be what we are seeing and Polian has come out repeatedly and indicated that Garcon is on schedule or exceeding the Colts expectations for his development.
I will grant you that this all seems unbelievable given that this past offseason there was plenty of speculation about Gonzalez taking over Harrison’s old role in the offense and Collie appeared to have been highly drafted to take over Gonzo's slot duties. What may have also solidified this paradigm in people’s minds is that during the offseason Manning and Gonzo even worked on routes together in preparation for taking over Harrison’s old role in the offense, and as recently as early in August there was a quote from Manning, about his confidence in Gonzo taking over that very role in the offense. I myself assumed it to be an inevitable outcome.
But then a very unexpected and funny thing happened… Also in August, Peter King started reporting that some guy named Pierre Garcon was really turning heads and greatly impressing in training camp, and that this relatively unknown 2nd year WR appeared to be better suited to the Harrison role that I just took for granted that Gonzalez was earmarked for. King admitted that Manning favored "Gonzalez outside to start, because he spent two days a week during the offseason working individually with him at the Colts' training facility, perfecting their precision and timing on all the routes he used to throw to Harrison in his sleep." But King still maintained that he liked Garcon a lot, and that "the Colts are likely to go one of two ways with their offensive sets: Wayne left and Anthony Gonzalez right, with Clark and rookie third-round pick Austin Collie in the slot; or Wayne left, second-year Division-III find Pierre Garcon right, with Gonzalez and Clark in the slot."
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writ...olts/index.html
This is when I originally started taking notice, although I can’t say that I bought into the idea immediately. A little research revealed that Bloom had very good things to say about Garcon as a rookie in training camp and that Anthony Borbely had pimped Garcon around the same time last year, as a diamond in the rough due to his Div III background, and 6th round draft pedigree potentially overshadowing his true ability. It still wasn't enough to get me to move on him, and I figured Pierre was still a long shot at best. Gonzo and Collie both had higher draft pedigrees, Gonzo had already performed very well as a 3rd WR and paid his dues, and he had gone to great lengths in establishing a strong working relationship with Manning and preparing for the 2009 move to the outside. That seemed to leave little room for an upstart 6th rounder to emerge anytime in the near future, and to grab one of the premier NFL WR spots in one of the NFL’s top offenses. However, I made a mental note to keep an eye on this situation – just in case. After all, if there was a relatively unknown WR in Indy who might one day take over this coveted job then it was worth monitoring for dynasty purposes, and I figured it would be something to watch for - probably more so in 2010 than in 2009.
Now, I know you're better than this. First off, Garcon and Gonzalez do play the same position. In fact, in many dynasty leagues Collie was drafted ahead of Garcon for this very reason (including the one you're in). The Colts' plan coming into the season and all through preseason was to have Wayne and Gonzo in 2 wide sets, bringing Collie into the slot for 3 wide sets. Garcon was the 4th WR and was often listed as such.
In regards to the bolded part, you must have a very short memory. Garcon is on pace to have the same number of catches Gonzalez did in his 2nd season - the difference? Gonzo was the 3rd WR, not the 2nd as Harrison and Wayne were playing...and yes, Dallas Clark was still on the team. Incidentally, Austin Collie has more receptions than Garcon so far this season - and Collie is a rookie. Gonzalez is 25 - so he is hardly ancient.
This was the part that really got to me when I first read it, and if you were
then hats off to you, because I couldn't resist responding at some point, as you seemed to imply that I was playing around with the facts or in denial about the Colts’ plans for their WRs. Au contraire mon frere! Before Garcon’s emergence I fully expected that Gonzo would start opposite Wayne, and that Collie was going to work from the slot (and believed that he had been drafted so highly because their would be a strong need to replace Gonzalez's production in 3 WR sets). Still it seemed pretty far-fetched that Garcon could waltz in and earn significant playing time ahead of Gonzalez, so King's tweets and articles weren't enough for me to jump on the bandwagon and throw my chips ‘all in’ in an attempt to secure him on my dynasty roster. However, Gonzo’s injury and Garcon’s play in the first few weeks of the season, combined with Polian’s repeated praise heaped on the development and projected future career path of Garcon convinced me.
Oh and as far as the GM? Let's keep in mind a few things: this is the same GM who drafted Gonzalez in the first round and Garcon in the 6th. Secondly, it is the same GM who said back in the first few weeks that Gonzo would be back from his knee injury by week 7 or 8. As a fellow Bears fan, you really don't put that much stock in what a GM says do you?
That Manning guy will also be throwing to Gonzo for a while too.
In summary Garcon has does a nice job filling in for Gonzo, but if anything his extended playing time, while showing some of his strengths has also revealed his drawbacks. If, and again I do acknowledge that this is a fairly considerable "if", Gonzalez is healthy next season, I see no reason why he won't go back to the same spot he had all through preseason and in the first game - which is the WR2 on the Colts.
IMO when you are examining a fluid and competitive situation such as the one emerging from Colts camp between Gonzalez, Collie, & Garcon, then it behooves you to listen when a guy like Polian goes way, way, out of his way to continually single one of them out as a potential HOF talent, exhibiting skills that he claims the prolific Colts offenses of the past have been missing, and saying that Garcon’s arrow is pointing up from here on out. Especially when that WR is being groomed for one of the NFL’s premier jobs on the right side with Peyton Manning throwing to him. Also as you mentioned this GM has a bigger investment in terms of draft picks in Gonzalez and Collie, yet it is Garcon he is praising and talking up as having the big role in the Colts' future. If anything you'ld expect that kind of talk about the guys who are higher draft picks. That in and of itself ought to tell you something...In summary Garcon is doing a nice job filling in for Harrison this year. Gonzo’s damage was done primarily inside and Collie is doing a nice job of filling in for Gonzalez. In light of the progress he’s making, I can’t foresee any reason why Garcon will relinquish the job in the future, but rather Collie may lose out when Gonzo returns. For now option 1 and 2 in this offense are Wayne and Clark, but there is an opportunity for Garcon to eventually work his way into Manning’s #1 or #2 option. I can’t say for sure that will ever happen, but I would give him a MUCH better chance of earning that distinction than Gonzalez moving forward.
Nicks isn't a full-time starter and doesn't even have a full season under his belt. How has he maxed out his potential on the field?
So just to be clear, Meachem is no late fascination for me, neither is Sid Rice nor Harvin nor Sims-Walker nor DeSean nor V-Jax (drafted him in '08 startups well ahead of his ADP with quizzical comments)......I own Meachem on the vast majority of my dynasty teams, and have since Day 1. His emergence (and if he keeps it up to high-end WR2 or better) is and will be no surprise to me.......
Good point. I guess in week 1 of 2010 we'll have a much clearer picture depending on who's split out wide opposite Wayne.
Nicks isn't a full-time starter and doesn't even have a full season under his belt. How has he maxed out his potential on the field?
