mcintyre1
Footballguy
You're just mad because I snatched White after you dropped him.
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Dynasty Rankings (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't think the gap between Collie and White can be described as "close" at all.Jerry Rice (4.7) was fast enough to be the best WR of all time. 40 time is vastly overrated. Joe Hayden was a top 10 pick and ran close to a 4.6, just this last season. Roy Williams ran a faster 40 time than TO - anyone care to argue that Roy Williams is faster than TO, or Laron Landry as fast as DeSean Jackson, both faster than Devin Hester? Anyone?
Wait. Let me make sure I am understanding you. If the Dolphins could evaluate WRs (as well as you can - credentials?) they would be starting Hartline and Turner over Bess?
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
All you said was that White is Collie's backup - nothing more. When Romo is out, Kitna gets starts. When Manning is out, Painter gets starts.If Collie is out, White will get stats. You canon Collie all you want, but White has enough to fill that role.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I am saying if the Dolphins could evaluate WRs, they would draft better guys than Hartline and Turner.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
You added an "r".All you said was that White is Collie's backup - nothing more. When Romo is out, Kitna gets starts. When Manning is out, Painter gets starts.If Collie is out, White will get stats. You can
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Ugh. Ignore then. Sorry.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't know that the WRs are the problem, but I did misunderstand your point.
At the risk of bringing him up for the 4,319th time in the thread, I would like to revisit some discussion on Arian Foster that I tried to bring up earlier. What happens to him if Kubiak and his very running back friendly system get fired at the end of the season? With the way the Texan's are choking away leads and playing well below their potential, I don't see how this isn't becoming a very real possibility.
At this point, Foster is Priest Holmes 2.0- he's capable of nearly single handedly winning you a matchup every week and is on pace for over 2000 total yards and 20 touchdowns. As long as Kubiak is in town next year, there's little reason to believe anything changes (maybe not as sensational, but little reason to believe he won't again be great). The question becomes what happens if Kubiak is no longer there?
How far does he drop? I've seen all kinds of discussion about him being a top 5 or top 8 dynasty RB (and fully agree and believe that he is), but that has all been operating under the assumption that Kubiak is around for at least next year. Who is ranking him as a top 5 or top 8 RB in a different system and under a different coach? At this point is the consensus that he is simply legit and will perform regardless of how the situation changes around him (this is my belief, but I was curious about what others were thinking)? If you are dropping him under the premise that Kubiak is fired, where does he end up in your rankings?
I realize he has been discussed a ridiculous amount, but believe he is one of the more curious fantasy commodities to come about in awhile and warrents discussion- how often do you get Priest Holmes level of production with such a varying degree of beliefs on his ability and value?
At this point, Foster is Priest Holmes 2.0- he's capable of nearly single handedly winning you a matchup every week and is on pace for over 2000 total yards and 20 touchdowns. As long as Kubiak is in town next year, there's little reason to believe anything changes (maybe not as sensational, but little reason to believe he won't again be great). The question becomes what happens if Kubiak is no longer there?
How far does he drop? I've seen all kinds of discussion about him being a top 5 or top 8 dynasty RB (and fully agree and believe that he is), but that has all been operating under the assumption that Kubiak is around for at least next year. Who is ranking him as a top 5 or top 8 RB in a different system and under a different coach? At this point is the consensus that he is simply legit and will perform regardless of how the situation changes around him (this is my belief, but I was curious about what others were thinking)? If you are dropping him under the premise that Kubiak is fired, where does he end up in your rankings?
I realize he has been discussed a ridiculous amount, but believe he is one of the more curious fantasy commodities to come about in awhile and warrents discussion- how often do you get Priest Holmes level of production with such a varying degree of beliefs on his ability and value?
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
Just read back over the pages to get varying opinions of what will happen or just trade him while his value is highest and get a ton for him. He just went for 88 yards and 2 tds against the Jets of all teams. Sell him and get yourself a number of players and picks for next season. I'm keeping him whether he stays in the same system or not. I've seen enough of him to know NFL playmaking ability is more valuable than talent.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I was on the "Foster is average" bandwagon, and now have him #5 in my rankings, taking all of my concerns into account. I will use my eyes, when it comes to taking MJD over Ray Rice every day of the week. But at one point, you have to draw the line. When a guy is doing what Foster is doing, and your eyes tell you he shouldn't be, you are obviously missing something. With a new coach, I might be more inclined to take a McCoy or Ray Rice over him. But I would not drop him any more than that (1 or 2 spots).
Another player I think is worth revisiting is Aaron Hernandez. I'm generally the last person to overreact to any single performance, but the last 2 weeks have been troubling for me. Not the lack of production, but the lack of snaps. On a normal team, this wouldn't concern me much and I would simlpy assume Hernandez's talent would win out over time and he would force his way to more snaps and a consistant, heavy workload. However, this is Bill Belichick we are talking about. Predicting tight end usage with him has been about as easy as predicting the weather (as a matter of fact, I would venture to say that even the weatherman are right about the weather more often than fantasy players are about Belichick's tight ends). Tight end is one of those positions that is extremely situationally dependent and Belichick has proven he has an affinity for using different tight ends for different roles, perhaps more than any coach in recent memory.
What does this do to Hernandez's long term value? I don't expect him to play 10% or less of the teams snaps on a regular basis, but does the mere fact that it is a real possibility on a game by game basis playing for Belichick impact his value? Is this simply a blip on the radar and not indicitive of any trouble down the road? Those who own him, what are you looking to do with him? Do you still value him over, say, Greshem? Moeaki? Pettigrew? Daniels? All are young tight ends that probably lack Hernandez's talent, but have far more secure situations that will ensure them a large workload on an every week basis.
What does this do to Hernandez's long term value? I don't expect him to play 10% or less of the teams snaps on a regular basis, but does the mere fact that it is a real possibility on a game by game basis playing for Belichick impact his value? Is this simply a blip on the radar and not indicitive of any trouble down the road? Those who own him, what are you looking to do with him? Do you still value him over, say, Greshem? Moeaki? Pettigrew? Daniels? All are young tight ends that probably lack Hernandez's talent, but have far more secure situations that will ensure them a large workload on an every week basis.
Richard_the_Vampire
Footballguy
For the next few years, Hernandez will be Ben Watson. Gronkowski will be Daniel Graham.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
A player having a new coach is a variable, but you can't predict who the new guy will like or want to bring in so, if anything, I say go with how you felt about the player (in this case Foster) because if someone was performing, unless it's Todd Haley, then that guy will most likely have a similar role in the new regime.And to piggyback what you were saying, once your eyes see all the things Foster has done on the field this season, you can't discount it too much even if you are trying.
renesauz
IBL Representative
The Pats have found that Gronkowski is developing into a solid receiver himself...and he's also a better blocker. Hernandez is a great receiving threat, but his blocking is merely adequate for a TE.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
I am right there with you. I definitely don't overreact to things over a 1 or 2 game span, but I was not expecting the slash in Hernandez's snap counts the past 2 weeks. It brought back memories of when I would tell myself other than Welker, Brady and Moss to never take a Patriot player in FF because you never know what they are going to do. I actually have never had Brady on a team because they can go to 45 rushes in a game at any moment (maybe that's next week??)I have Hernandez in a couple keeper leagues (along with Moeaki and Graham) and I will have to think long and hard in the off-season because earlier in the year I thought Hernandez was a slam dunk prospect - but that would be the case on ANY OTHER TEAM. At this moment, I would probably pick Graham because even though the Saints spread the ball, Brees and Payton don't play head games like Belichek.Defenses are already reacting to Hernandez in coverage a ton (considering he's a rookie as well), but I think part of that is because Moss is gone and Deion Branch isn't exactly the same threat - and Welker is a 10-yard route guy - so Hernandez will draw safety attention at this point. That's also a part of it. If Tate, Price or someone else doesn't step up as another threat in 2011, it maybe the same thing - Gronkowski can block, so he sees a lot more snaps and the Patriots have a ball control type offense. Hernandez would be ideal in Indianapolis, Houston - offenses like that. In New England, I am not so sure at this point.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
If that coach doesn't use the zone scheme as often and as well as Houston, it will affect his production. As I said, I won't drop him far, but I would take it into consideration.
BrainDeadGenius
Footballguy
I think it will be very hard to get his current value back in a trade if you're looking to trade him for another RB. You would probably be better off staying with him for one more season and trading him early in 2011 for a stud with a slow start or something along those lines. If you need a stud WR, Foster is the perfect back for that. He has longterm questions (Tate coming back, possible new coaching scheme), but owners that need RBs will still covet him. If you trade him for either Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson, I think that's your best way to get value. The problem is owners want to trade him for another RB and nobody with studs performing similar to him are willing to take the additional risk of him being a one-year wonder.Concept Coop said:
I'm in similar auction/keeper/dynasty/salary cap type league. What happens in mine is underperforming players who were bid up very high in the offseason and are now eating up 25 - 35% of cap space are dropped for cheaper, actually performing players. So far guys like R Matthews, Spiller, Ochocinco, Moss, Wells, Benn, Golden Tate, Driver, Steve Smith (CAR) have been dropped to clear cap space as they were priced too high at the time. Doesn't mean the league isnt competitive, probably just a factor of certain auction league structures.18-man rosters. This is my first year in keeper/dynasty style, so I have been on this thread getting insight on players. From everything I'm hearing, this is very uncommon....No offense but over the last couple of pages you've mentioned Jay Cutler, Steve Smith (NYG) Donald Brown, Beanie Wells, CJ Spiller, Arrelius Benn and a few other players that you're grabbing off waivers that just shouldn't be on the waiver wire in dynasty leagues.Do you have incredibly small rosters?Are you sure you're in a dynasty league?Maybe it's just the league I'm in, but I acquired Brandon Tate for nearly nothing early in the year and Felix Jones for cheap in a trade. I acquired Benn off the WW a couple weeks ago for cheap (it's a dynasty auction/salary cap league), WW guy in the first few weeks of the year, Wells picked up last week when he was dropped, Spiller was dropped this week (so I will bid next week when he unlocks) and Golden Tate/Emmanuel Sanders are guys I plan to get in another week or so for the off-season when I can drop some of my veteran depth.From what I'm hearing, these moves aren't that common in other leagues however....
I was in the pool
Footballguy
That's exactly the league structure I am in.....Underwhelming guys or just overpriced guys get cut, but the difficult thing is to determine how much salary to allocate to them so that they may be a value in 2011. I actually really like the league setup as you are rewarded for getting value year round and keep keep no one or close to everyone if you wish or can afford it.I'm in similar auction/keeper/dynasty/salary cap type league. What happens in mine is underperforming players who were bid up very high in the offseason and are now eating up 25 - 35% of cap space are dropped for cheaper, actually performing players. So far guys like R Matthews, Spiller, Ochocinco, Moss, Wells, Benn, Golden Tate, Driver, Steve Smith (CAR) have been dropped to clear cap space as they were priced too high at the time. Doesn't mean the league isnt competitive, probably just a factor of certain auction league structures.18-man rosters. This is my first year in keeper/dynasty style, so I have been on this thread getting insight on players. From everything I'm hearing, this is very uncommon....No offense but over the last couple of pages you've mentioned Jay Cutler, Steve Smith (NYG) Donald Brown, Beanie Wells, CJ Spiller, Arrelius Benn and a few other players that you're grabbing off waivers that just shouldn't be on the waiver wire in dynasty leagues.Do you have incredibly small rosters?Are you sure you're in a dynasty league?Maybe it's just the league I'm in, but I acquired Brandon Tate for nearly nothing early in the year and Felix Jones for cheap in a trade. I acquired Benn off threw WW a couple weeks ago for cheap (it's a dynasty auction/salary cap league), WW guy in the first few weeks of the year, Wells picked up last week when he was dropped, Spiller was dropped this week (so I will bid next week when he unlocks) and Golden Tate/Emmanuel Sanders are guys I plan to get in another week or so for the off-season when I can drop some of my veteran depth.From what I'm hearing, these moves aren't that common in other leagues however....
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't know. I think you could get a Frank Gore, Jamaal Charles, or LeSean McCoy for him, if you value those players more. You are not going to get CJ or AP, but I woudln't be surprised if you would even get an MJD or Ray Rice. His questions, while valid, are becoming smaller and smaller every week. Tate is not going to be a threat to an 1,800/18 back. If Foster is a legit talent, a change could push him behind guys like Peterson, Gore, and a few others he is currently out-pointing. But his position as a starting, top RB is as solid as any outside of the top 3.
I fully agree with this. At this point, barring some unforseen event happening, we are no longer talking about whether Foster is legit or if he is a product of anything. The only question at this point is whether he will remain a top 5 RB with a change in scheme or if he will fall to the bottom portion of the top 10. I can't find a reason that he wouldn't remain a top 10 RB in any situation based on what I have seen this year.As for trade value, I still think it would be difficult to fetch Ray Rice or MJD for him straight up. While I think all 3 are very close in value (I like Ray Rice slightly more and MJD slightly less), I think MJD and Rice owners would be reluctant to give them up based on a lack of track record for Foster. At this point I am no longer sure if that is a valid reason, but I think that is the mentality most Rice and MJD owners would take. I do, however, think you could easily get Gore, Charles, McCoy, Mendenhall, McFadden, or any other top 10 RB outside of Peterson, Johnson, Rice, and MJD (and you MAY be able to get the last 2 on that list). The problem is that I'm not sure Mendnehall, McCoy, McFadden, or Gore are equal value for him. There still remains a possibility that Foster will come way down to earth next season if there is a system change and he won't be near the dominant force he was this season, meaning his floor is probably a little lower. However, there also remains the possibility that he will continue to be dominant and frankly, what he is doing this year is more than someone like Mendenhall or McCoy will ever do in their career, giving him a much higher ceiling (as is obvious based on this season). This is why I find assigning a value to him if Kubiak is canned very difficult. No other running back in the top 10 provides such a disparity between his potential floor and his potential ceiling.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Week 11 update:Rivers - 24.5 ppgRoethlisberger - 22.9 ppgWeek 9 update:Rivers - 24.2 ppgRoethlisberger - 17.2 ppgWeek 6 updatehilip Rivers- 24.25 ppgBen Roeth- 24.4 ppg
He has definitely been more productive, but I'm afraid I just don't see the same MJD that I've always seen.In my mind the 2008 or 2009 MJD takes that last run at the end of this weeks game into the endzone standing up. Instead he was caught and brought down at the 1. He is only 25, so I am just hoping he's not quite right yet and won't bump him down too far. I definitely agree there is a top CJ and AP tier. After that I could see arguments for Rice, MJD, Foster & Mendenhall in the next group. If Foster's situation were more certain and Houston was winning I could put him at 3 or 4. As it stands I'd probably put him at the end of that group at 6. They're all close for me though.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think 1st quarter MJD would have scored. I am not worried about that play at all. He is scoring at an elite pace right now.As for Foster, I think he has to be head and shoulder above Mendehall. I am not a big fan of Mendehall's talent, and his situation is worse. I am not the biggest Rice fan either, so I would take Foster over him too. I have Charles higher in my rankings as of right now. It will be really hard for me to take Charles over Foster if Kubiak is still there next season and the Texans pay him his money, so I would not be surprised to see that change. 1A. AP1B. CJ3. MJD4A. Jamaal Charles4B. Arian Foster6. Rice7. McCoy8. Mendenhall9. Gore10. McFadden11. Bradshaw
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Going forward, not including the rest of this year, who would you rathe have in a PPR league, D Williams, or M Forte?
Based on talent alone, I would go with Williams every time, but he might be on a different team next year, and has had his share of injury issues. Going to a different team couldn't be a bad thing *JINX* considering the talent he's had around him for the last couple of years.
M Forte is in a good situation. Imagine if he had a real OL. I don't see the bears making a change at the RB position, barring injury.
Based on talent alone, I would go with Williams every time, but he might be on a different team next year, and has had his share of injury issues. Going to a different team couldn't be a bad thing *JINX* considering the talent he's had around him for the last couple of years.
M Forte is in a good situation. Imagine if he had a real OL. I don't see the bears making a change at the RB position, barring injury.
Sebowski
Footballguy
Williams. Forter's situation can only get worse. Williams will be a premium free agent for a team looking to feature him.Going forward, not including the rest of this year, who would you rathe have in a PPR league, D Williams, or M Forte?Based on talent alone, I would go with Williams every time, but he might be on a different team next year, and has had his share of injury issues. Going to a different team couldn't be a bad thing *JINX* considering the talent he's had around him for the last couple of years. M Forte is in a good situation. Imagine if he had a real OL. I don't see the bears making a change at the RB position, barring injury.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It is really close. Forte's situation has to get better, at least as far as the o-line goes. I just worry about Chicago finding a RB better at getting yards on the ground than Forte. But Forte is younger, catches more balls, and has been healthier. Standard, it is easy: Williams. PPR, it is close. I am one for risks, so I would take Williams here too, hoping he finds a good spot and stays healthy.Williams. Forter's situation can only get worse. Williams will be a premium free agent for a team looking to feature him.Going forward, not including the rest of this year, who would you rathe have in a PPR league, D Williams, or M Forte?Based on talent alone, I would go with Williams every time, but he might be on a different team next year, and has had his share of injury issues. Going to a different team couldn't be a bad thing *JINX* considering the talent he's had around him for the last couple of years. M Forte is in a good situation. Imagine if he had a real OL. I don't see the bears making a change at the RB position, barring injury.
Sebowski
Footballguy
That's what I was referring to. I am not a Forte fan. To me it is just a matter of time before someone else starts sending him to the bench. You're right about the line probably having to get better though.It is really close. Forte's situation has to get better, at least as far as the o-line goes. I just worry about Chicago finding a RB better at getting yards on the ground than Forte. But Forte is younger, catches more balls, and has been healthier. Standard, it is easy: Williams. PPR, it is close. I am one for risks, so I would take Williams here too, hoping he finds a good spot and stays healthy.Williams. Forter's situation can only get worse. Williams will be a premium free agent for a team looking to feature him.Going forward, not including the rest of this year, who would you rathe have in a PPR league, D Williams, or M Forte?
Based on talent alone, I would go with Williams every time, but he might be on a different team next year, and has had his share of injury issues. Going to a different team couldn't be a bad thing *JINX* considering the talent he's had around him for the last couple of years.
M Forte is in a good situation. Imagine if he had a real OL. I don't see the bears making a change at the RB position, barring injury.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Yeah, your both echoing my thoughts. I've got both players in different leagues, however I just traded Forte for Williams straight across in a league that I was eating crow in.
I really hop Williams ends up somewhere else. Although Forte with a decent line would be huge. Even if he had a average line, I wouldn't worry that his job could be in danger.
I really hop Williams ends up somewhere else. Although Forte with a decent line would be huge. Even if he had a average line, I wouldn't worry that his job could be in danger.
Sebowski
Footballguy
What are the thoughts on Colt McCoy right now? I know he was touched on a month ago, but a lot has changed in a month. I don't understand SSOG ranking him a tier behind Troy Smith, Tim Tebow, Max Hall, and Jimmy Clausen, Charlie Whiteherst shiver, and the Raiders' twins. I haven;t seen a ful game of his, but his teammates and coaches are praising him, and he is giving the Browns a chance to win every game with no weapons to throw to. I know winning doesn't mean FF points, but the things he is showing as a rookie make me think his upside is not Jeff Garcia Lite, rather Jeff Garcia could end up looking like he was Colt McCoy Lite. I'm hesitant to use Drew Brees. In the same sentence, but why not? He seems to have all the intangibles.
shiver, and the Raiders' twins. I haven;t seen a ful game of his, but his teammates and coaches are praising him, and he is giving the Browns a chance to win every game with no weapons to throw to. I know winning doesn't mean FF points, but the things he is showing as a rookie make me think his upside is not Jeff Garcia Lite, rather Jeff Garcia could end up looking like he was Colt McCoy Lite. I'm hesitant to use Drew Brees. In the same sentence, but why not? He seems to have all the intangibles.
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cheese
Footballguy
This is true, but in dynasty (and especially in deeper leagues) there is definitely value in anyone who has a great chance to be a starter for his team for many years. I think if you've got a chance to get a guy who should start at QB for the next 10 years for very cheap right now, you do it. McCoy is a great target to me. Not to mention, Holmgren usually knows what he's doing in the passing game and they have an above average line protecting him. Worth picking up cheap IMO.What are the thoughts on Colt McCoy right now? I know he was touched on a month ago, but a lot has changed in a month. I don't understand SSOG ranking him a tier behind Troy Smith, Tim Tebow, Max Hall, and Jimmy Clausen, Charlie Whiteherst
Along these same lines, Evan Moore is starting to show flashes of being a good, young, pass-catching tight end to work with McCoy. He should be on people's radar in dynasty, even if he's not startable in most formats until Watson leaves.
Hey gang, longtime reader, infrequent poster. Love everything that all contributors do here, it's a must stop for all fantasy enthusiasts and dynasty leaguers. I'm interested in starting a strategy discussion around assessing player talent levels based on other people's analysis; so away we go:
In my opinion, the best way to analyze is to watch. But unfortunately, as I'm sure you are all too aware, time becomes less and less available each and every year that passes. I also no longer get the Sunday ticket due to a student budget that is next to nothing and it makes it difficult for me to watch games. Which leads me to my question, when using statistical analysis to decipher between players, what kind of things do you consider when using split statistics?
Let me try to give an example of something I'm thinking about:
Mike Thomas had a big statistical day in week 10 - his final stat line would have been quite good (best of his career at 8 for 99 on 9 targets) without the hail mary, but it wouldn't have been much different than the lines he put up when playing the Broncos in week 1 (6 for 89 on 7 targets) or the Titans in week 6 (8 for 88 on 9 targets). Yet, the final stat sheet reads much differently because of a pretty fluky bomb at the end of the game. That bomb, that boosted the stat line from average to fantastic, is rarely thrown out in much of the material I've read about week 10. My thoughts whenever I watched Thomas were that he was a pretty good player and Jacksonville clearly views him as a play maker; not only considering his target numbers that are good for a rookie, but also his number of carries. Yet, when I watched him and thought about his talent level in terms of a fantasy asset, I couldn't see him as much more than a guy that is always available for a decent price every year, a WR 2.5 at the top of his game if you will. He just didn't jump out at me as that game breaking talent even though some of the numbers he is putting up would disagree with my assessment.
Yet at the same time, I think about a guy like Marshawn Lynch and while I haven't watched much of him this year, his numbers have been unimpressive, and I hear he's beginning to look a bit like LenDale (yikes!). When I've read about him this year, I often see his horrible YPC average and that often comes with a few of his longer runs thrown out, which obviously makes those already mediocre numbers look even worse. However, I also think of Marshawn Lynch as a guy that could get better if he can motivate himself to possibly lose some weight or dedicate himself to the game some; given his pedigree and semi-successful earlier years back in Buffalo it seems the talent either was or is there.
At the end of the day, it seems to me that people want numbers to back up analysis and they don't want to take someone's word that a given player is good. Ultimately, I'm curious for people's perspective regarding how to read into how statistical splits are used and I'm wondering if portraying statistics in this format is a way to interject that 'eye for talent' into a written article. The players above are only used as an example (two players that I've paid a lot of attention to this year) and not meant to be the only part of the discussion.
Looking forward to reading the responses. Happy Thanksgiving.
In my opinion, the best way to analyze is to watch. But unfortunately, as I'm sure you are all too aware, time becomes less and less available each and every year that passes. I also no longer get the Sunday ticket due to a student budget that is next to nothing and it makes it difficult for me to watch games. Which leads me to my question, when using statistical analysis to decipher between players, what kind of things do you consider when using split statistics?
Let me try to give an example of something I'm thinking about:
Mike Thomas had a big statistical day in week 10 - his final stat line would have been quite good (best of his career at 8 for 99 on 9 targets) without the hail mary, but it wouldn't have been much different than the lines he put up when playing the Broncos in week 1 (6 for 89 on 7 targets) or the Titans in week 6 (8 for 88 on 9 targets). Yet, the final stat sheet reads much differently because of a pretty fluky bomb at the end of the game. That bomb, that boosted the stat line from average to fantastic, is rarely thrown out in much of the material I've read about week 10. My thoughts whenever I watched Thomas were that he was a pretty good player and Jacksonville clearly views him as a play maker; not only considering his target numbers that are good for a rookie, but also his number of carries. Yet, when I watched him and thought about his talent level in terms of a fantasy asset, I couldn't see him as much more than a guy that is always available for a decent price every year, a WR 2.5 at the top of his game if you will. He just didn't jump out at me as that game breaking talent even though some of the numbers he is putting up would disagree with my assessment.
Yet at the same time, I think about a guy like Marshawn Lynch and while I haven't watched much of him this year, his numbers have been unimpressive, and I hear he's beginning to look a bit like LenDale (yikes!). When I've read about him this year, I often see his horrible YPC average and that often comes with a few of his longer runs thrown out, which obviously makes those already mediocre numbers look even worse. However, I also think of Marshawn Lynch as a guy that could get better if he can motivate himself to possibly lose some weight or dedicate himself to the game some; given his pedigree and semi-successful earlier years back in Buffalo it seems the talent either was or is there.
At the end of the day, it seems to me that people want numbers to back up analysis and they don't want to take someone's word that a given player is good. Ultimately, I'm curious for people's perspective regarding how to read into how statistical splits are used and I'm wondering if portraying statistics in this format is a way to interject that 'eye for talent' into a written article. The players above are only used as an example (two players that I've paid a lot of attention to this year) and not meant to be the only part of the discussion.
Looking forward to reading the responses. Happy Thanksgiving.
BlackMagic10
Footballguy
I was in the pool
Footballguy
Lynch had some talent, but with the crowd in Buffalo and now a lack of O-line and supporting staff in Seattle, you can see he isn't an elite-type guy (if you were on the fence about it). He gets goal-line looks, but with that offense, how often will that happen? They don't have an up-and-coming QB, so that's difficult to see improving drastically in 2011. I have Lynch in a few leagues merely because there are limited numbers of RBs that are "starters" in the NFL if the offense moves the ball.
Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
Colt McCoy is a winner, can make plays with his legs and isn't making the bonehead mistakes that plague Rookies. He's getting better every week, all he needs is a bit more help in the WR dept and he'll blossom. He won't be putting up Rivers type #'s anytime soon but I'll take him right now over all those QB's other's have ranked above him that you mentionWhat are the thoughts on Colt McCoy right now? I know he was touched on a month ago, but a lot has changed in a month. I don't understand SSOG ranking him a tier behind Troy Smith, Tim Tebow, Max Hall, and Jimmy Clausen, Charlie Whiteherst
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
This query looks familiar
. I'll answer here instead of via email, since the discussion can grow here.As you mentioned, watching games is the best way to analyze. Taking it a step further, there's no substitute for watching games and having a legit eye for talent (I know some readers here are less confident in their ability to judge talent than others are). Unfortunately, there's a dearth of quality analysis freely available online that comes from the eye of a scout -- or at least someone who can come close to matching what a scout can reveal about a specific player.I do find it to be true that time becomes a more precious commodity as the years go by. In many ways my free time for watching NFL Network's game replay or studying the players on my own fantasy teams on a weekly basis has decreased since I started writing about fantasy football for a living. Just how much of our lives do we want to devote to studying a game we're not playing or coaching?
Fortunately, as Gregg Rosenthal pointed out in this article, this is "the golden age for football dorks." For the past couple of years, anybody with NFL Sunday Ticket had an advantage with Shortcuts. This year, though, NFL.com's Game Rewind is really closing the knowledge gap between the haves and the have-nots. The "search" and "film room" features on Game Rewind allow anyone who pays the reasonable fee to go back and watch only the snaps one specific player was involved in. You can watch all of Mike Thomas' plays from this season or all of Marshawn Lynch's runs from the past two years. As Gregg points out, "it's an incredible tool for fantasy owners because nothing beats seeing how something happened with your own eyes rather than relying on the box score."
I don't know how to tackle the stats question without getting long-winded. As Colts president Bill Polian pointed out at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, NFL analysis has to be divided into two distinct areas: 1. personnel evaluation and management, including the salary cap and 2. on-field game management, tactics, and strategy. As far as personnel selection is concerned, analysis -- usually employed by the team itself -- can and must find undervalued assets. Geeks can provide measures and tools to be used by NFL teams, and that area of study continues to grow (i.e., the car guys can communicate with the business guys). Polian insists, however, that there is "zero analysis out there that is any good" on game management, strategy, and tactics. The game is so team-oriented, team-work oriented, and technical that two different teams can't be graded in the same fashion. You have to know scheme, matchups, coverage, down and distance, etc. in every single situation to accurately grade a player. One size does not fit all. Bottom line: football doesn't lend itself to player metrics like baseball or basketball do. It's the trickiest sport to analyze and the one we know the least about.
What Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus do now is light years ahead of what the average fan had access to 7-8 years ago, but it's not even remotely close to a complete picture. I've been following FO almost since its inception, and I have the Pro Football Prospectus books going back to 2003. I also use Pro Football Focus' player rankings on a daily basis. It's important to remember, though, that these sites over-inflate their own findings for understandable reasons. First, they need the general public (and even NFL teams) to find their work legitimate and valuable or else they wouldn't stay afloat. Secondly, they wouldn't be doing what they do if they didn't believe their findings to be accurate. At the same time, every reader has to bring a healthy skepticism to their findings. When you see, for instance, PFF's 2009 Elusiveness Ratings that place Justin Forsett at the top of the list instead of Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles, you're kidding yourself if you believe that to mean anything substantial. When you see Chris Ivory ahead of Chris Johnson in this year's running back rankings, how can you take the leap of faith that these rankings are more accurate than your own eyes? Trust your own informed opinion above a metric that is, by definition, limited.
Take your pick. All three quotes are relevant to the OP's question. By way of your Mike Thomas example, I understand your discomfort with including the fluky bomb. But what about the bomb that comes within the flow of the game, the receiver beats his man by several steps, and his quarterback overthrows him by half an inch? The box score never tells the full story. It leaves in the fluky bomb, and it leaves out the bad-luck overthrow on a play where the receiver did his job to perfection. After 15+ years of fantasy football, I'm pretty comfortable with the suggestion that the hobby (game?) is equal parts art and science. After 10+ years of playing in Dynasty leagues, however, I know that art takes precedence over science in that format.
I've found it to be true that statistics are best used as illumination. More often than we'd like, they tell us what happened after the fact rather than accurately predicting what is about to happen. I know this is a tired example, but it's also a true demonstration of the limits of statistics: You weren't going to find numbers predicting a player like Steve Slaton as a one-year wonder. There was either something that bothered you about his game or there wasn't. I find Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders to be most useful in strengthening previously held opinions. If I wanted to target Steven Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald after their rookie seasons and FO was in love with both players, it made me a lot more confident in what I saw.
By way of wrapping up, this is the player evaluation formula that I've found to be the most successful:
1. Watch as much as you reasonable can (NFL.com Game Rewind now invaluable) to develop strong opinions.
2. Read Rotoworld regularly (or this message board) for updates on changing roles, coaches' opinions, teammates' opinions, analysts' opinions, beat writers' opinions, etc.
3. After you've developed a strong gut instinct from the first two factors, see if the statistics agree or disagree and open your mind accordingly.
4. Find a voice (or voices) in the wilderness that you trust on talent evaluation and future value.
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crnerblitz
Footballguy
Posted this in another thread but I thought it should go in here as well.
Managing a dynasty roster is one of the hardest aspects of dynasty play. It requires a proficency at scouting, waiver aquisition and planning future needs. It really is about resource management as roster spots are your greatest resource. You cannot pickup high risk/high reward free agents if you do not have your roster in order. You cannot take fliers on 3rd round rookie picks if your roster is saddled with inert players. Players that are just there. Little real prospect of ever helping your team win a championship, but there they are sucking up your roster mobility.
These inert players come in all shapes and sizes. 2 years past flash in the pans, underpreforming high draft choices that linger too long in mediocrity, The fragile young kid who cant stay healthy, the aged veteren long in the tooth but can still be marginal help in your lineup, and even just worthless chumps who are the complete suck.
These guys are like roster poison. They stop you from making moves. I can hear you now. 'But Josh Morgan* has some value dude. I cant just cut him!' Sure you can. No-one is spam-bot'n your email to trade for this guy. Actually you hope some other sucker picks his worthless carcass up and rosters him for 2 years. Happy Day! While he is wasting space being inert on your roster you couldn't pick up Steve Johnson cause you just didn't have the room.
Find those players holding back your team and get rid of them. Sure you will have a regret or two. But usually not for too long. 2009 preseason I cut MSW and Tony Scheffler because I decided that both those guys were too fragile to ever really help me be a champion. I've regretted it one or twice but I'm mostly very happy with the decision. It gave me room to add other players, and while those players I cut them for may not have worked out either, it gave me roster flexibility at those slots allowing me to move on from guys who I thought were not going to be solid starters on my championship team. Perhaps marginal starters. How many marginal starters help you win a championship? How hard is it to get a marginal starter in the waivers?
I try to keep two roster slots open at the bottom of my roster. Not literally open. They contain my flavor of the month or season. I churn them slots several times over the course of a year. Sometimes it might be as a bye week PK but mainly it is so that when I think I have a player who might bust wide open I can make sure he is on my roster a Sunday or two before the entire league is scrambling to the waiver wire to get him.
Find and cut loose that dead weight. Make those tough decisions to roster players that will help you win a championship. That is what you pay you for!
* I may be wrong about him but odds are stacked against him. Bad QB's, Bad O, Bad team 3 other studs in front of him. He is the suck.
Managing a dynasty roster is one of the hardest aspects of dynasty play. It requires a proficency at scouting, waiver aquisition and planning future needs. It really is about resource management as roster spots are your greatest resource. You cannot pickup high risk/high reward free agents if you do not have your roster in order. You cannot take fliers on 3rd round rookie picks if your roster is saddled with inert players. Players that are just there. Little real prospect of ever helping your team win a championship, but there they are sucking up your roster mobility.
These inert players come in all shapes and sizes. 2 years past flash in the pans, underpreforming high draft choices that linger too long in mediocrity, The fragile young kid who cant stay healthy, the aged veteren long in the tooth but can still be marginal help in your lineup, and even just worthless chumps who are the complete suck.
These guys are like roster poison. They stop you from making moves. I can hear you now. 'But Josh Morgan* has some value dude. I cant just cut him!' Sure you can. No-one is spam-bot'n your email to trade for this guy. Actually you hope some other sucker picks his worthless carcass up and rosters him for 2 years. Happy Day! While he is wasting space being inert on your roster you couldn't pick up Steve Johnson cause you just didn't have the room.
Find those players holding back your team and get rid of them. Sure you will have a regret or two. But usually not for too long. 2009 preseason I cut MSW and Tony Scheffler because I decided that both those guys were too fragile to ever really help me be a champion. I've regretted it one or twice but I'm mostly very happy with the decision. It gave me room to add other players, and while those players I cut them for may not have worked out either, it gave me roster flexibility at those slots allowing me to move on from guys who I thought were not going to be solid starters on my championship team. Perhaps marginal starters. How many marginal starters help you win a championship? How hard is it to get a marginal starter in the waivers?
I try to keep two roster slots open at the bottom of my roster. Not literally open. They contain my flavor of the month or season. I churn them slots several times over the course of a year. Sometimes it might be as a bye week PK but mainly it is so that when I think I have a player who might bust wide open I can make sure he is on my roster a Sunday or two before the entire league is scrambling to the waiver wire to get him.
Find and cut loose that dead weight. Make those tough decisions to roster players that will help you win a championship. That is what you pay you for!
* I may be wrong about him but odds are stacked against him. Bad QB's, Bad O, Bad team 3 other studs in front of him. He is the suck.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
I have him in the WR10-15 range, which is about where I had him a year ago.It's funny with Holmes. 1-2 years ago, he was a player that everyone wanted. I had him in several leagues and people were always asking about him. I got offers for him from over half the teams in one of my leagues. Then he got in trouble, got traded, and all of a sudden nobody wanted him. I think he dropped down to WR30-WR35 in the FBG staff rankings.
That's the definition of overreaction. He's the same exact guy he was a year ago: a fringe Pro Bowl talent in the prime of his career. That's the kind of player you want to hang onto, not sell low at the first sign of trouble. I view him as an ideal dynasty WR2 going forward. He's a good bet to finish in that WR15-WR20 range when healthy. Is there some character risk? Sure, but there's risk with every player. At least with Holmes you know he's the goods.
He is a top 20 WR talent, but falls outside the top 20 dynasty WR's due to his situation. I own him in one of my dynasty leagues, and would try to trade him if my deadline hadnt passed. I like him, but i think his perceived value right now is higher than it should be.He was one of the WR's i had a hard time with in my rankings last week. Another is Michael Crabtree, does anyone still value him as a #1 dynasty WR? My gut told me he doesnt belong in the top 24 WR's, but i left him at #20...for now. Honestly though, i would have a hard time trading Steve Johnson, Mike Williams, and a few of the other guys i have behind Crabtree for him.
Another WR i am up in the air on is Vincent Jackson. I was a big fan before this offseason, and thought his holdout would hurt Rivers value. Instead, Rivers is looking like the NFL MVP without him. Alot of people thought Jackson was a top 5-10 NFL talent this offseason based at least party on his YPC, but i think that also has more to do with Rivers than Jackson. Both Floyd and Crayton are in the top 5 WR's in YPC. Im not saying Jackson isnt a good WR, but i think alot of his value depends on being the #1 in SD.
corpcow
Footballguy
How much emphasis do you guys put on kickers in dynasty? Do you bother trying to lock up a good kicker, or do you swap out?
Last year, I traded Longwell + 1.14 to move up two spots to 1.12 to grab Benn which was an absolute no-brainer for me. (He didn't have a kicker and he was on a cheap contract, but still). I'm asking this because I curently have Buehler and thinking about whether I should bother "planning for the future" here with contract space as our auction season comes to a close. Should I even bother? Is there enough variance to actually make it worhwhile in the short term and/or long term?
(I posted a more specific question in the AC too, so if you have thoughts would love to hear them).
Last year, I traded Longwell + 1.14 to move up two spots to 1.12 to grab Benn which was an absolute no-brainer for me. (He didn't have a kicker and he was on a cheap contract, but still). I'm asking this because I curently have Buehler and thinking about whether I should bother "planning for the future" here with contract space as our auction season comes to a close. Should I even bother? Is there enough variance to actually make it worhwhile in the short term and/or long term?
(I posted a more specific question in the AC too, so if you have thoughts would love to hear them).
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az_prof
Footballguy
I always drop my PK for rookie draft no matter how good he seems. Then I draft the best available with my last pick and if it doesn't work out, then I pick up a guy two or three weeks into the season. It always works out ok.
Sebowski
Footballguy
If my kicker happens to be in the very top of kicker scoring, I try to hold him through his bye week. Holding for the next year is a different story though. It is too unpredictable for kickers year-to-year to to hold one unless the end of your roster is terrible.
Put zero meaningful value in kickers. They are inconsistent yeat-to-year, easily replaced from the waiver wire (in most leagues) with little or no drop in production, and can be swapped in and out based on weekly match ups.
Last year, a buddy was sure that Robbie Gould was money and that I was foolish to have the worst kicker in the league. I told him I'd play the wire and out score Gould. He conceded the bet after week 7. My waiver wire kicker rotation had outscored all of the kickers in the league. You can play match ups with kickers.
Second, how do owners feel if they invested anything of value in Hartley, Gostkowski, or Kaeding this year? Injuries and benchings hurt them all. You just don't know.
Nevertheless, the smart owner maximizes points from all positions. So you absolutely have to put time and effort in to finding the best kicker (be it for the year or the week), but if someone offers you something of value for Dan Carpenter because of two straight 15 point weeks - take it and run.
I use the same basic theory with defenses.
Last year, a buddy was sure that Robbie Gould was money and that I was foolish to have the worst kicker in the league. I told him I'd play the wire and out score Gould. He conceded the bet after week 7. My waiver wire kicker rotation had outscored all of the kickers in the league. You can play match ups with kickers.
Second, how do owners feel if they invested anything of value in Hartley, Gostkowski, or Kaeding this year? Injuries and benchings hurt them all. You just don't know.
Nevertheless, the smart owner maximizes points from all positions. So you absolutely have to put time and effort in to finding the best kicker (be it for the year or the week), but if someone offers you something of value for Dan Carpenter because of two straight 15 point weeks - take it and run.
I use the same basic theory with defenses.
corpcow
Footballguy
The thing about this format is that it is contract years with penalties - so there's a very real cost to adding/dropping players.
Instinctive
Footballguy
In my contract league, I always do the same thing: Sign a kicker at the league min for a one year contract. The penalty to the cap then lasts only one year, and it's small. I can always drop or pickup a new guy if need be, and by the end of the year, it's like I had rostered an extra wideout all year, when you add up all the K salary penalties I have.
gorf
Footballguy
what's wrong with his situation? he doesn't have a top QB throwing him the ball, but sanchez is showing improvement. i'd say the jets are a top 20 team in terms of situation for a WR, or at the very least not bad enough to drop a guy who you think has top 20 talent.Go deep said:
Holmes is in the 17-20 range when it comes to talent. The Jets situation isnt the worst for a WR, but its in the bottom half, maybe even bottom 30%, so that puts him in the 21-25 range as a dynasty WR.
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