Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

[hostile]

Just made a trade, and I would like some thoughts.

12 team, PPR, START 2QB league (2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DST)

I am currently atop my division at 6-4.

Current Roster:

QB Matt Stafford, Det

QB Josh Freeman, TB

QB Sam Bradford, Stl

QB Brett Favre, Min

QB Troy Smith, SF

QB Tyler Thigpen, Mia

RB LeSean McCoy, Phi

RB Jonathan Stewart, Car

RB Felix Jones, Dal

RB Danny Woodhead, NE

RB Laurence Maroney, Den

RB Javon Ringer, Ten

WR Reggie Wayne, Ind

WR Greg Jennings, GB

WR Randy Moss, Min

WR Deon Butler, Sea

WR James Jones, GB

WR Jacoby Jones, Hou

WR Legedu Naanee, SD

WR Brandon LaFell, Car

WR Brandon Gibson, StL

WR Earl Bennett, Chi

TE Vernon Davis, SF

TE Visanthe Shiancoe, Min

PK Dan Carpenter, Mia

DST Detroit

The deal was:

Give: Matt Stafford, Brett Favre, Reggie Wayne, Felix Jones, James Jones

Get: Ben Roethlisberger, Shonn Greene, Dez Bryant

Thoughts?

 

[eaglesfan7]

Just made a trade, and I would like some thoughts.12 team, PPR, START 2QB league (2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DST)I am currently atop my division at 6-4.Current Roster:QB Matt Stafford, DetQB Josh Freeman, TBQB Sam Bradford, StlQB Brett Favre, MinQB Troy Smith, SFQB Tyler Thigpen, MiaRB LeSean McCoy, PhiRB Jonathan Stewart, CarRB Felix Jones, DalRB Danny Woodhead, NERB Laurence Maroney, DenRB Javon Ringer, TenWR Reggie Wayne, IndWR Greg Jennings, GBWR Randy Moss, MinWR Deon Butler, SeaWR James Jones, GBWR Jacoby Jones, HouWR Legedu Naanee, SDWR Brandon LaFell, CarWR Brandon Gibson, StLWR Earl Bennett, ChiTE Vernon Davis, SFTE Visanthe Shiancoe, MinPK Dan Carpenter, MiaDST DetroitThe deal was:Give: Matt Stafford, Brett Favre, Reggie Wayne, Felix Jones, James JonesGet: Ben Roethlisberger, Shonn Greene, Dez BryantThoughts?

Shonn Greene for Felix Jones is a wash. Dez for Wayne and James Jones is risky if you are trying to win it this year but in the long run helps you. Stafford and Favre for Big Ben is good.

 

[hostile]

Shonn Greene for Felix Jones is a wash. Dez for Wayne and James Jones is risky if you are trying to win it this year but in the long run helps you. Stafford and Favre for Big Ben is good.

The deal for me was about getting Dez and Ben. Wayne is at the point where I should have sold Randy Moss - lesson learned. As much as I like James Jones, no one in my league is buying. I've been shopping him all year, and there have been no bites. Jones is a guy who keeps flashing both talent and head smackers, so there is no proof as to him having large success. I asked for Sid Rice in the deal too, but the owner balked.

Why would you hold 6 qbs?

QBs are far too valuable in a start 2QB league. Earlier in the year when I was actually down to one QB b/t injuries and byes. Really, how many startable QBs does that line up above actually have, keeping in mind I picked up Troy and Tyler in the last couple of weeks before they became starters (Smith replaced Matt Moore, and Thigpen replaced Max Hall)? At one point, I was down to Bradford, Freeman, and Favre, and trying to juggle byes was pretty bad.Further to that, we *really* dont know what Bradford and Stafford will be. Is Bradford Peyton Manning Light, or is he Mark Sanchez? Is Stafford going to be able to remain healthy? Despite the young guys I have which look good on paper, *nothing* is proven yet, so I'm hedging as many bets as I possibly can.Landing a proven, young QB like Ben was important, so now I can plug Ben in, and rotate through my QB2 position.

 

[FUBAR]

Question #1: QB#1 (Aaron Rodgers) is worth QB#4 (Peyton Manning) + QB#???Question #2:RB#1 (Adrian Peterson) is worth RB#6 (Rashard Mendenhall) + RB#???Question #3:WR#1 (Larry Fitzgerald) is worth WR#6 (Hakeem Nicks) + WR#???Question #4:TE#1 (Jermichael Finley) is worth TE#4 (Jason Witten) + TE#???

I assume you're not asking so much what 2 QBs I would trade Rodgers for, frankly I wouldn't trade the top QB for any two QBs, but more an auction type value?1: Probably #4 + #13, if he's a young #13 like Bradford. 2: #6 + #123: #6 + #20 (#6 WR is closer to #1 than at RB)4: #4 + #13

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Understand now and agree with you on the age, not experience issue.

I'm underplaying his performance, but only a bit. And I think others are overplaying his situation. Sure Otah will help. But they'll be getting a new coach and system and have 3 young QBs that have looked pretty bad. They're starting Brian St Pierre this week for pete's sake. What are they going to do next year, draft another QB? They need time to develop into a offensive system that fits his skills. I think that DeAngelo is better suited for a crappy offense (IMO, better lateral runner, shiftier, catches better, blocks better).

So I think that he has the talent and could develop the situation to be top 10 in 2012 and top 3 in 2013. That's just a long way away for me. And that's not even mentioning the dings.

Gotta hit the sack. Good talking to you guys.

Can I get your thoughts on the Mark Ingram or Trent Richardson comparison? If you played in a league that allowed you to roster players while they were still in college, what would you trade right now to acquire a Trent Richardson or Mark Ingram? What would you trade to acquire the #1 pick in the 2011 draft? How about the #1 pick in the 2012 draft?

I like both quite a bit although I'm weary of trading without knowing their situation and opportunity. So I would probably only trade a lower end RB2 or WR2 for them, unless I was a really bad team. I guess that my point with these posts is that Stewart makes me realize that personally, I think people in Dynasty league OVERRATE talent at the expense of situation and opportunity. I understand that usually the opposite happens, but I've decided that my approach is to stop spending so much time concentrating on what I think a guy may do, and spend more time worrying about what a guy has shown he can do.

Maybe I'll regret this change in philosophy in a year or two, lol.

Edit to add that I do realize you need a balance of present and future value to succeed in a dynasty league. I just think there is a point where you spend too long waiting for the talent to fulfill the promise. For me, Stewart reached that point when he's out with a bad concussion as DWill is put on IR. It just seems to not be in the cards for him to be a long term top 10 RB. Guess we'll see.

I agree to some extent with your general point. I agree that a lot of dynasty league owners tend to vastly underrate situation and opportunity. Yes, it can change quickly and make a mediocre talent that was playing above his head return to mediocrity very quickly. However, there are plenty of times where the situation remains constant for plenty long enough to make that mediocre talent a very viable fantasy product. I still believe that talent will end up trumping situation, but I also am not going to discount situation and the impact it can have completely (which I think I see happen from time to time from people in this thread).That being said, I think you are way off the mark with the bolded portion of your comment. Just as recently as last season, Stewart showed more than enough to justify saying that it IS in the cards for him to be a long term top 10 RB. I'm not sure why 1 bad half of a season on a historically bad Panther's offense would suddenly sway your view. Has this season been worse than anyone expected for Stewart? Sure, I think it has. Has he looked bad enough that his talent suddenly needs to be called into question (when everyone was able to confirm their belief that he is an elite talent based on his performance down the stretch last season)? No, I don't think so. He has been caught up in what is a historically bad Panther's offense. So let's look at the situation then- Stewart's chief competition for carries becomes an unrestricted free agent after this season (DeAngelo Williams) AND his head coach is leaving town after this season (John Fox). To me, this spells a situation that is primed to change rather quickly and most likely will be changing for the good. This seems like one of those times where it would be unwise to let situation and opportunity take precedence over talent.

Compare that situation to Houston and Arian Foster. Regardless of what you think about Foster from a talent standpoint (I think he is elite, but it is irrelevant for this discussion), his situation does not look likely to change anytime soon. This means that you can expect the same running back friendly system to be in place next year with the same general lack of competition (Ben Tate provides only marginal competition even if you don't believe in Foster's talent), being coached by the same coach. This seems like an example of situation and opportunity overriding talent (if you aren't a believer in Foster). He is showing that he can produce in this system and for this coach, doesn't have any overwhelming challenges for his job looming, and seems extremely likely to be back as the feature back in the same system and under the same coach next year. If the team does well next season (and actually lives up to potential/expectations), there's little to no reason to believe he won't also be there, in the same situation and circumstances, in 2012. Obviously there are several leaps of faith being taken with the Arian Foster example, however I'm just using it to try and illustrate when I believe talent is heads and shoulders more important than situation/opportunity and when I believe opportunity can overcome talent.

Excellent points and I can't argue much. I guess I like the stability of Foster more than the uncertainty of Stewart (although to be fair, I do agree that Foster has outstanding talent). But I still think a new coach and offensive system and some green QBs will lead owners to wait even longer for him to turn into that Top 10 RB than they should. Or at least they'll be giving up shorter term points if I'm right and it's 2012 before Stewart really reaches his peak. Either way, excellent discussion. Thanks everybody.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Just made a trade, and I would like some thoughts.12 team, PPR, START 2QB league (2QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DST)I am currently atop my division at 6-4.The deal was:Give: Matt Stafford, Brett Favre, Reggie Wayne, Felix Jones, James JonesGet: Ben Roethlisberger, Shonn Greene, Dez BryantThoughts?

Given 2QB, you got the two best players in the deal. Home run.

 

[Spike]

Anyone trade for or trade away Randy Moss lately? Is he still fetching #2 WR value?

Beginning of the season, I traded Moss and (gulp) Hakeem Nicks for Dez Bryant and what will likely be a bottom third 1st round rookie pick.My thinking was that this was the last time I'd get ANYTHING for Moss.

 

[ookook]

An obvious point that sometimes gets lost in this thread when discussing talent vs. situation and opportunity.

Since the longevity of players varies so much by position, the emphasis on situation should too. For example, age matters more for RBs than QBs and WRs. So for RBs situation matters more relative to talent than is the case for some other positions.

For this reason, I believe the dynasty value of Fitz stays high despite a weak situation, but for Stewart the situation my be the nail in his value coffin.

I am sure we already knew this, but it still bears reminding.

 

[I was in the pool]

An obvious point that sometimes gets lost in this thread when discussing talent vs. situation and opportunity.Since the longevity of players varies so much by position, the emphasis on situation should too. For example, age matters more for RBs than QBs and WRs. So for RBs situation matters more relative to talent than is the case for some other positions. For this reason, I believe the dynasty value of Fitz stays high despite a weak situation, but for Stewart the situation my be the nail in his value coffin.I am sure we already knew this, but it still bears reminding.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

An obvious point that sometimes gets lost in this thread when discussing talent vs. situation and opportunity.Since the longevity of players varies so much by position, the emphasis on situation should too. For example, age matters more for RBs than QBs and WRs. So for RBs situation matters more relative to talent than is the case for some other positions. For this reason, I believe the dynasty value of Fitz stays high despite a weak situation, but for Stewart the situation my be the nail in his value coffin.I am sure we already knew this, but it still bears reminding.

Yes, I meant to work that into one of those posts. Or maybe I did. But generally, as I think everyone knows, RBs more often hit the ground running as rookies minus some blitz pickup work. So a RB that I keep having to wait on due to situation is worse than a WR or QB that I have to wait on due to situation or opportunity.

 

[corpcow]

You said Felix could be a 20+ carry and a lead back, did you not? Wouldn't that imply 320 carries?

If the only point you're making is that he can ever have 20 carries in a single game, but don't think he can do it for an extended period, then you're saying the exact same thing as us and just arguing semantics. It's also a point that is completely irrelevant to a dynasty rankings thread.

So, that's the discussion we're having. Are you saying he can or can't be a 320 carry back? (I.e., 20 carries per game)?

If you are genuinely interested in my opinion of Felix Jones, and what he can and can't handle in the NFL, you can find in by reading my posts found on the last 5 pages or so.If you are tying to find a contradiction, for a reason other than to contribute to the thread, what is the point? What sense of gratification are you searching for?

As I said, and will not say again, I think Felix Jones can be the main back for a team. My point about 20 carries, was in response to those that said he could not be the main back, and used the fact that he hadn't had a 20 carry game as a reason why.

So no, I don't think he should be a 320 carry back, very few should be. Do I think he can? Sure. For a season, I think he could physically handle 320 carries. But I don't think it is smart, nor do I think it will happen. Nor do I think it is relevant, as I don't project it happening, thus, has no bearing on his dynasty value, which is what he are discussing.

I know what you've said about him as I've been involved in the previous 5 pages of discussion. Let's summarize: A number of us said that Felix wasn't going to be a feature back, which you disagreed with saying the only reason he hasn't had a heavy load was because of situation - being behind DMC in college and MB3 in the pros. You then said he could carry 20 times per game while at the same time saying he wouldn't be a 320 carry back (which is what 20 carries per game would mean). NO ONE is arguing that Felix can't carry 20 carries once per game EVER, nor did anyone say he (or anyone) can't be a feature back simply because he hasn't carried for more than 20 carries per game. (That's where the Hillis etc examples came from). But carrying 20 times once, ever, is completely irrelevant to his dynasty ranking.... we want to project what he can/will do, as opposed to saying that in one particular week he might be a stud, right?

As most of us have said ad naseum to this point - we don't think he is (or will be) a feature back over the course of a season/multiple seasons for a myriad of reasons: he's not built for that kind of workload, has an injury history that suggests he won't hold up under that kind of load, and as you said generally isn't best used that way. Those who said he hasn't carried 20 times in his career simply pointed to that as additional evidence that he has not been used that way thus far. He's a big play guy, not a bell cow, and he's going to be used accordingly.

Nor do I think it is relevant, as I don't project it happening, thus, has no bearing on his dynasty value, which is what he are discussing.

It is entirely relevant to his dynasty prospects. He had a 5.9 YPC last year but wasn't relevant in fantasy terms with only 116 carries. He's not a red zone force like some guys who get few touches and thus can be studs. If he's getting 240 carries per year (e.g., an average of 15 per game, which is a lot more than he's getting now) he still needs to do a lot with those touches to be fantasy relevant, let alone an RB1. If he's only getting 150 carries (as he's on pace for this year) he needs to do a WHOLE lot better than his 4 YPC average with ZERO TDs. Right now, there are a LOT of guys I would take who haven't yet had 20 carries a game over Felix because I think they are more likely to eventually get that shot and be able to do that for an extended time. (E.g., like Turner as we discussed - someone who wasn't getting the carries because of circumstance, but looking at him you felt he could shoulder it).

 

[Spike]

I'd be interested in price checking Donald Brown. I'm not super-enthused about him (especially about his penchant for getting Manning killed in pass protection), but he's pretty much the poster child for pedigreed player who could easily still be developing. Stafford, Henne, Kolb, and Sanchez might be good cheap QB targets. At WR, I like Demaryius, Royal, MSW, both Tates (Brandon and Golden), and Benn. At RB, you've got Stewart, Mathews, Best, Wells, Spiller, Greene, Lynch, Hardesty, and Green-Ellis. Felix fits the profile, too, and despite my reputation as a Felix hater, I would pick him up if the price was right (I just doubt the price would ever be right). At TE, Moeaki, Carlson, and Greg Olsen.

Now, I'm not saying acquire these guys at all costs. Most of those names are guys who I'd be looking to acquire as a throw-in, or perhaps burning a rookie 2nd on, tops. They're guys whose owners MIGHT be getting impatient or writing them off prematurely... but then again, it's equally possible that the owner is being patient and the asking price for those guys hasn't fallen any over the last 6 months to year and a half. I guarantee you one thing, though- there are a *LOT* of future studs on that list.

Henne, Brandon Tate and Green-Ellis are the only ones that I could possibly see going for a 2nd in a dynasty trade.

 

[I was in the pool]

I'd be interested in price checking Donald Brown. I'm not super-enthused about him (especially about his penchant for getting Manning killed in pass protection), but he's pretty much the poster child for pedigreed player who could easily still be developing. Stafford, Henne, Kolb, and Sanchez might be good cheap QB targets. At WR, I like Demaryius, Royal, MSW, both Tates (Brandon and Golden), and Benn. At RB, you've got Stewart, Mathews, Best, Wells, Spiller, Greene, Lynch, Hardesty, and Green-Ellis. Felix fits the profile, too, and despite my reputation as a Felix hater, I would pick him up if the price was right (I just doubt the price would ever be right). At TE, Moeaki, Carlson, and Greg Olsen.

Now, I'm not saying acquire these guys at all costs. Most of those names are guys who I'd be looking to acquire as a throw-in, or perhaps burning a rookie 2nd on, tops. They're guys whose owners MIGHT be getting impatient or writing them off prematurely... but then again, it's equally possible that the owner is being patient and the asking price for those guys hasn't fallen any over the last 6 months to year and a half. I guarantee you one thing, though- there are a *LOT* of future studs on that list.

Henne, Brandon Tate and Green-Ellis are the only ones that I could possibly see going for a 2nd in a dynasty trade.

Maybe it's just the league I'm in, but I acquired Brandon Tate for nearly nothing early in the year and Felix Jones for cheap in a trade. I acquired Benn off the WW a couple weeks ago for cheap (it's a dynasty auction/salary cap league), WW guy in the first few weeks of the year, Wells picked up last week when he was dropped, Spiller was dropped this week (so I will bid next week when he unlocks) and Golden Tate/Emmanuel Sanders are guys I plan to get in another week or so for the off-season when I can drop some of my veteran depth.From what I'm hearing, these moves aren't that common in other leagues however....

 

[The Man With No Name]

After winning 2 straight championships which no one had done in the 15 year history of the league, I came into 2009 wanting 3 in a row. Started out 2-2 then lost 4 in a row and am sitting at 3-6. I can still win out and do it again, but have been turning over my wr's, getting rid of some older ones that were at one time #1's on their team(no longer) and aquiring some younger guys. I have too many to go into 2010 with, but will have up until the last week of preseason to decide who to keep. I have:Roy Willams Sidney Rice- been holding since 2007Antonio Bryant- last pick of last years rookie/free agent draftHakeem Nicks- pick #12 this yearLee Evans- traded for this weekBrandon TateDevin ThomasMike ThomasChris Henry.12 team IDP league. I am 4th in scoring, #1 in points scored against. I think the future looks bright, but what do you guys think about them? We start 3 every week. No ppr.

Definitely not a contending unit, but Rice, Evans, and Nicks are a nice core for 2010. I'm not holding out any hope for Roy Williams, and Bryant's knucklehead issues and knee problems don't make feel good about his future. The rest of them are just grab-bag types that could turn out, but you obviously can't count on them. By the way, I saw Gran Torino last night. It was excellent. I'm talking probably one of my Top-10 of all time. Eastwood is fantastic.

Okay. A year later and what do you think of my wr's now? (start 3)Hakeem NicksDez BryantVincent JacksonSidney RiceMike ThomasBrandon TateSeyi AjiratutuDavid GettisBetter than a year ago. By the way, it's and IDP league.

 

[Kree]

Every year I enjoy drafting the available FAs in rookie drafts over the new players, whom everyone seems to get obsessed with (But loving Best and bryant this year early).

Either way, I was lucky enough to snag Sims-Walker, James Jones, Pierre Garcon and Jacoby Jones (Returns league) in the 6 round draft last year, and although I love my 8 WRs (Incl. White Jennings Desean and Tate) I always end up falling for even more of the FAs available come draft time.

This year some of the FAs include:

Steve Johnson - IMO should come into the WR 2 spot ahead of disappointing Hardy. Can produce as well IMO (I'm obviously a fan)

Bolded are my favourite possible pickups, with Johnson probably being my number one. Anyone have any other FA type WRs that could step up in even a small way? Anyone have any thoughts on the above players?

Damnable deep WR squad kept this guy off my team. Shoulda listened to myself.Oh well.

 

[corpcow]

I'd be interested in price checking Donald Brown. I'm not super-enthused about him (especially about his penchant for getting Manning killed in pass protection), but he's pretty much the poster child for pedigreed player who could easily still be developing. Stafford, Henne, Kolb, and Sanchez might be good cheap QB targets. At WR, I like Demaryius, Royal, MSW, both Tates (Brandon and Golden), and Benn. At RB, you've got Stewart, Mathews, Best, Wells, Spiller, Greene, Lynch, Hardesty, and Green-Ellis. Felix fits the profile, too, and despite my reputation as a Felix hater, I would pick him up if the price was right (I just doubt the price would ever be right). At TE, Moeaki, Carlson, and Greg Olsen.

Now, I'm not saying acquire these guys at all costs. Most of those names are guys who I'd be looking to acquire as a throw-in, or perhaps burning a rookie 2nd on, tops. They're guys whose owners MIGHT be getting impatient or writing them off prematurely... but then again, it's equally possible that the owner is being patient and the asking price for those guys hasn't fallen any over the last 6 months to year and a half. I guarantee you one thing, though- there are a *LOT* of future studs on that list.

Henne, Brandon Tate and Green-Ellis are the only ones that I could possibly see going for a 2nd in a dynasty trade.

Maybe it's just the league I'm in, but I acquired Brandon Tate for nearly nothing early in the year and Felix Jones for cheap in a trade. I acquired Benn off the WW a couple weeks ago for cheap (it's a dynasty auction/salary cap league), WW guy in the first few weeks of the year, Wells picked up last week when he was dropped, Spiller was dropped this week (so I will bid next week when he unlocks) and Golden Tate/Emmanuel Sanders are guys I plan to get in another week or so for the off-season when I can drop some of my veteran depth.From what I'm hearing, these moves aren't that common in other leagues however....

Uhm, no. That must be a very shallow dynasty league....

 

[footballguy#1]

Every year I enjoy drafting the available FAs in rookie drafts over the new players, whom everyone seems to get obsessed with (But loving Best and bryant this year early).

Either way, I was lucky enough to snag Sims-Walker, James Jones, Pierre Garcon and Jacoby Jones (Returns league) in the 6 round draft last year, and although I love my 8 WRs (Incl. White Jennings Desean and Tate) I always end up falling for even more of the FAs available come draft time.

This year some of the FAs include:

Steve Johnson - IMO should come into the WR 2 spot ahead of disappointing Hardy. Can produce as well IMO (I'm obviously a fan)

Bolded are my favourite possible pickups, with Johnson probably being my number one. Anyone have any other FA type WRs that could step up in even a small way? Anyone have any thoughts on the above players?

Damnable deep WR squad kept this guy off my team. Shoulda listened to myself.Oh well.

Yep, just traded for him a few weeks ago and I'm loving it. The guy is putting WR1 numbers every week.

 

[Jersey35]

Maybe it's just the league I'm in, but I acquired Brandon Tate for nearly nothing early in the year and Felix Jones for cheap in a trade. I acquired Benn off the WW a couple weeks ago for cheap (it's a dynasty auction/salary cap league), WW guy in the first few weeks of the year, Wells picked up last week when he was dropped, Spiller was dropped this week (so I will bid next week when he unlocks) and Golden Tate/Emmanuel Sanders are guys I plan to get in another week or so for the off-season when I can drop some of my veteran depth.From what I'm hearing, these moves aren't that common in other leagues however....

Are you sure you're in a dynasty league?

 

[Jail]

This is true. I also threw out updated rankings on Twitter 1.5 weeks ago on a Saturday night.

You would have to scroll through my Twitter page to find all of them, but they start right here. I'd probably have Vick at No. 6 now.

I went through your twitter page and see that you had MJD at 7. That was on 11/6 I think. I know he started awfully slow this year. Was the downgrade more from his situation or something else? Also, I seem to recall you posting a funny exchange with a Texas homer friend of yours that was pretty high on McCoy. I never thought I would find myself saying this, but he might be right. McCoy isn't producing good fantasy numbers, but from an NFL standpoint he's played pretty well for a rookie.

 

[J-Dawg]

Are Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, Davone Bess and Mike Hart still worthy of being rostered in dynasty leagues or can they be dropped?

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Are Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, Davone Bess and Mike Hart still worthy of being rostered in dynasty leagues or can they be dropped?

Why would you drop any of them in a dynasty league? Who are you picking up thats better?

 

[Sebowski]

Are Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, Davone Bess and Mike Hart still worthy of being rostered in dynasty leagues or can they be dropped?

Why would you drop any of them in a dynasty league? Who are you picking up thats better?

Maurice Clarret is a better gamble than Jacoby Jones.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Are Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, Davone Bess and Mike Hart still worthy of being rostered in dynasty leagues or can they be dropped?

Why would you drop any of them in a dynasty league? Who are you picking up thats better?

Maurice Clarret is a better gamble than Jacoby Jones.

Well I kind of agree that Jacoby is droppable at this point, but I don't just drop players for no reason. Depends on how deep the rosters are I guess.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Are Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, Davone Bess and Mike Hart still worthy of being rostered in dynasty leagues or can they be dropped?

No idea of your league scoring but Bess is like the 33rd best WR in my league. How in the world would you drop him?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Understand now and agree with you on the age, not experience issue. I'm underplaying his performance, but only a bit. And I think others are overplaying his situation. Sure Otah will help. But they'll be getting a new coach and system and have 3 young QBs that have looked pretty bad. They're starting Brian St Pierre this week for pete's sake. What are they going to do next year, draft another QB? They need time to develop into a offensive system that fits his skills. I think that DeAngelo is better suited for a crappy offense (IMO, better lateral runner, shiftier, catches better, blocks better). So I think that he has the talent and could develop the situation to be top 10 in 2012 and top 3 in 2013. That's just a long way away for me. And that's not even mentioning the dings.Gotta hit the sack. Good talking to you guys.

Can I get your thoughts on the Mark Ingram or Trent Richardson comparison? If you played in a league that allowed you to roster players while they were still in college, what would you trade right now to acquire a Trent Richardson or Mark Ingram? What would you trade to acquire the #1 pick in the 2011 draft? How about the #1 pick in the 2012 draft?

I like both quite a bit although I'm weary of trading without knowing their situation and opportunity. So I would probably only trade a lower end RB2 or WR2 for them, unless I was a really bad team. I guess that my point with these posts is that Stewart makes me realize that personally, I think people in Dynasty league OVERRATE talent at the expense of situation and opportunity. I understand that usually the opposite happens, but I've decided that my approach is to stop spending so much time concentrating on what I think a guy may do, and spend more time worrying about what a guy has shown he can do. Maybe I'll regret this change in philosophy in a year or two, lol.Edit to add that I do realize you need a balance of present and future value to succeed in a dynasty league. I just think there is a point where you spend too long waiting for the talent to fulfill the promise. For me, Stewart reached that point when he's out with a bad concussion as DWill is put on IR. It just seems to not be in the cards for him to be a long term top 10 RB. Guess we'll see.

I know its just two games but Goodsoon has 2 very good games playing behind the same terrible oline and with a terrible QB. Maybe Setwart and DeAngelo have been playing hurt all year who knows.This certainly is one of the strangest seasons in awhile in FFL

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Maybe it's just the league I'm in, but I acquired Brandon Tate for nearly nothing early in the year and Felix Jones for cheap in a trade. I acquired Benn off the WW a couple weeks ago for cheap (it's a dynasty auction/salary cap league), WW guy in the first few weeks of the year, Wells picked up last week when he was dropped, Spiller was dropped this week (so I will bid next week when he unlocks) and Golden Tate/Emmanuel Sanders are guys I plan to get in another week or so for the off-season when I can drop some of my veteran depth.From what I'm hearing, these moves aren't that common in other leagues however....

Are you sure you're in a dynasty league?

No offense but over the last couple of pages you've mentioned Jay Cutler, Steve Smith (NYG) Donald Brown, Beanie Wells, CJ Spiller, Arrelius Benn and a few other players that you're grabbing off waivers that just shouldn't be on the waiver wire in dynasty leagues.Do you have incredibly small rosters?

 

[mcintyre1]

I'd like to reopen some discussion on Mike Williams SEA. His performance against New Orleans really impressed me. He fought through injury to catch 6 of his 7 targets and really produce against one of the very best secondaries in the league, statistically. I believe he's still only 26, and he seems to have completely turned his life around. I feel like he could be even better after a solid offseason of conditioning and improving overall strength. He looks a bit soft still, after losing all of that weight. Do we like this long term prospects to hold a starting job?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Understand now and agree with you on the age, not experience issue. I'm underplaying his performance, but only a bit. And I think others are overplaying his situation. Sure Otah will help. But they'll be getting a new coach and system and have 3 young QBs that have looked pretty bad. They're starting Brian St Pierre this week for pete's sake. What are they going to do next year, draft another QB? They need time to develop into a offensive system that fits his skills. I think that DeAngelo is better suited for a crappy offense (IMO, better lateral runner, shiftier, catches better, blocks better). So I think that he has the talent and could develop the situation to be top 10 in 2012 and top 3 in 2013. That's just a long way away for me. And that's not even mentioning the dings.Gotta hit the sack. Good talking to you guys.

Can I get your thoughts on the Mark Ingram or Trent Richardson comparison? If you played in a league that allowed you to roster players while they were still in college, what would you trade right now to acquire a Trent Richardson or Mark Ingram? What would you trade to acquire the #1 pick in the 2011 draft? How about the #1 pick in the 2012 draft?

I like both quite a bit although I'm weary of trading without knowing their situation and opportunity. So I would probably only trade a lower end RB2 or WR2 for them, unless I was a really bad team. I guess that my point with these posts is that Stewart makes me realize that personally, I think people in Dynasty league OVERRATE talent at the expense of situation and opportunity. I understand that usually the opposite happens, but I've decided that my approach is to stop spending so much time concentrating on what I think a guy may do, and spend more time worrying about what a guy has shown he can do. Maybe I'll regret this change in philosophy in a year or two, lol.Edit to add that I do realize you need a balance of present and future value to succeed in a dynasty league. I just think there is a point where you spend too long waiting for the talent to fulfill the promise. For me, Stewart reached that point when he's out with a bad concussion as DWill is put on IR. It just seems to not be in the cards for him to be a long term top 10 RB. Guess we'll see.

I know its just two games but Goodsoon has 2 very good games playing behind the same terrible oline and with a terrible QB. Maybe Setwart and DeAngelo have been playing hurt all year who knows.This certainly is one of the strangest seasons in awhile in FFL

True. And to be fair, I do have Goodson on my dynasty team. Still think he fumbles too much though.

 

[todisco1]

Are Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, Davone Bess and Mike Hart still worthy of being rostered in dynasty leagues or can they be dropped?

Why would you drop any of them in a dynasty league? Who are you picking up thats better?

Maurice Clarret is a better gamble than Jacoby Jones.

Well I kind of agree that Jacoby is droppable at this point, but I don't just drop players for no reason. Depends on how deep the rosters are I guess.

I think the reason to drop someone is that they suck. Jacoby Jones seems to meet that criteria for me.

 

[doowain]

Where does Bowe sit in everyone's WR dynasty rankings right now?

I've seen some people put Steve Johnson in the Top 20 range (I think that's a bit optimistic). It seems to me that we often overvalue players based on how they were acquired. For instance, Matt Forte a couple years ago. He was a mid round pick in most startup dynasties. While not an elite athlete (and certainly not an elite RB) he was taken in the Top 5-10 in most drafts last year. His value with his owners, considering some of the trades I saw, was way too high. These late round gems or waiver wire pickups get this added boost in value from their owners.

I think this has the inverse effect on players you have a high investment in. Take Bowe for example. Last year he was a late 1st/early 2nd round pick in a lot of startups. This year he's living up to that value, but he's not getting the buzz of the Steve Johnsons or Arian Fosters or Peyton Hilliseseses. Why is that?

 

[Richard_the_Vampire]

I think Bowe has turned the corner with Cassel as his QB. He's probably in the lower end of the top 10 as far as dynasty wideouts are concerned.

 

[squistion]

Where does Bowe sit in everyone's WR dynasty rankings right now? I've seen some people put Steve Johnson in the Top 20 range (I think that's a bit optimistic). It seems to me that we often overvalue players based on how they were acquired. For instance, Matt Forte a couple years ago. He was a mid round pick in most startup dynasties. While not an elite athlete (and certainly not an elite RB) he was taken in the Top 5-10 in most drafts last year. His value with his owners, considering some of the trades I saw, was way too high. These late round gems or waiver wire pickups get this added boost in value from their owners.I think this has the inverse affect on players you have a high investment in. Take Bowe for example. Last year he was a late 1st/early 2nd round pick in a lot of startups. This year he's living up to that value, but he's not getting the buzz of the Steve Johnsons or Arian Fosters or Peyton Hilliseseses. Why is that?

I don't revise my rankings during the season, but I would guess that Bowe is a borderline #1 WR in a 12 team league, in the #13-16 range. In a start up league I wouldn't yet feel comfortable taking him as my first WR. In FF, perception quite often counts more than reality. Despite how well he is doing, I don't think many dynasty owners think Bowe is for real and that his current production is a fluke of some kind. It may go to a lot of people getting burned by owning him in prior years (by perhaps not living up to the hype and/or expectations). Other players that are currently hot don't have the past baggage that Bowe does, so there really isn't a past negative frame of reference to tie into with them, as there is with Bowe.

 

[Concept Coop]

I went through your twitter page and see that you had MJD at 7. That was on 11/6 I think. I know he started awfully slow this year. Was the downgrade more from his situation or something else?

I traded for MJD after his back-to-back poor outings. Since that time (6 weeks, IIRC) he is the number 2 scoring RB by average, to only Arian Foster. I think it took a while for the rest of the Jags offense to get in sync, and I think he was slowed by injury early on. But he is VERY clearly back to where he was last year, and should be no lower than 4th IMO. I think AP and CJ are still a tier above him. Other than that, the only player I think that belongs in the conversation for 3rd is Foster. I think MJD is the more talented, proven back, so I would go with him. But after what Foster has done this year, he belongs right up there with the rest. I think both Foster and MJD are ahead of Rice, and due to age, Gore as well.

 

[3optic]

True. And to be fair, I do have Goodson on my dynasty team. Still think he fumbles too much though.

I would too if I didn't already roster D Will and Stewart. Too many Panthers!Smooth segway.. anyone care to help me with this problem..?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=572102

 

[I was in the pool]

Are Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, Davone Bess and Mike Hart still worthy of being rostered in dynasty leagues or can they be dropped?

No idea of your league scoring but Bess is like the 33rd best WR in my league. How in the world would you drop him?

I have Bess in a PPR and the problem is that you know what you are going to get from him. No growth potential. So if you are in a keeper/auction/dynasty format - he shouldn't crack your lineup a bunch outside of a few injuries and bye weeks. I personally would rather have a guy like E.Sanders, A.Benn or another young guy that will step into a starting role at some point that could be a top-20 WR, than a guy that I know will be 25-40 for the next few years....

 

[I was in the pool]

Maybe it's just the league I'm in, but I acquired Brandon Tate for nearly nothing early in the year and Felix Jones for cheap in a trade. I acquired Benn off the WW a couple weeks ago for cheap (it's a dynasty auction/salary cap league), WW guy in the first few weeks of the year, Wells picked up last week when he was dropped, Spiller was dropped this week (so I will bid next week when he unlocks) and Golden Tate/Emmanuel Sanders are guys I plan to get in another week or so for the off-season when I can drop some of my veteran depth.From what I'm hearing, these moves aren't that common in other leagues however....

Are you sure you're in a dynasty league?

No offense but over the last couple of pages you've mentioned Jay Cutler, Steve Smith (NYG) Donald Brown, Beanie Wells, CJ Spiller, Arrelius Benn and a few other players that you're grabbing off waivers that just shouldn't be on the waiver wire in dynasty leagues.Do you have incredibly small rosters?

18-man rosters. This is my first year in keeper/dynasty style, so I have been on this thread getting insight on players. From everything I'm hearing, this is very uncommon....

 

[J-Dawg]

Are Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, Davone Bess and Mike Hart still worthy of being rostered in dynasty leagues or can they be dropped?

No idea of your league scoring but Bess is like the 33rd best WR in my league. How in the world would you drop him?

I like Bess but our league is very heavily slanted for TDs (1pt. - 15 yards, no PPR) and Miami's redzone offence just doesn't score many TDs in the first place and if they do Marshall is the guy getting looks before Bess is. Bess hasn't really done anything for the better part of a month and the offence looked lost with Thigpen under Center. Until Henne gets back nobody on that team is worth starting outside of the D. I'm looking at Nate Burleson on the free agent market (we have relatively short benches for a dynasty league, just 20 roster spots). Ben Obomanu is also somebody that I've watched for a few years and now he's finally getting an opportunity. I want some extra depth that I could actually start if I need them.I'm also looking at picking up another Defence to add some playoff depth and playing matchups...don't want to get stuck with a 0 at any position during a playoff game since my team has a chance to win. Miami is my current D but we only get points for points allowed and with them playing New England in our championship week I wouldn't be starting them with confidence.(My apologies if this is getting too Assistant Coachish - wasn't my intention)

 

[Concept Coop]

I have Bess in a PPR and the problem is that you know what you are going to get from him. No growth potential. So if you are in a keeper/auction/dynasty format - he shouldn't crack your lineup a bunch outside of a few injuries and bye weeks. I personally would rather have a guy like E.Sanders, A.Benn or another young guy that will step into a starting role at some point that could be a top-20 WR, than a guy that I know will be 25-40 for the next few years....

At one point this season, Bess was out Welkering Wess Welker. Especially in a PPR, Bess has as much, if not more potential thatn guys like Sanders and Benn. He is still only 24. I don't think you can put a cap on his potential, other than to say it is not elite (top 10).

 

[I was in the pool]

I have Bess in a PPR and the problem is that you know what you are going to get from him. No growth potential. So if you are in a keeper/auction/dynasty format - he shouldn't crack your lineup a bunch outside of a few injuries and bye weeks. I personally would rather have a guy like E.Sanders, A.Benn or another young guy that will step into a starting role at some point that could be a top-20 WR, than a guy that I know will be 25-40 for the next few years....

At one point this season, Bess was out Welkering Wess Welker. Especially in a PPR, Bess has as much, if not more potential thatn guys like Sanders and Benn. He is still only 24. I don't think you can put a cap on his potential, other than to say it is not elite (top 10).

I see bess as a slot guy, like amendola, that haas little chance to be the # 1 or# 2 guy on a team. Benn will be the # 2 in tampa most likely next year and sanders will have a shot as ward degrades....

 

[Concept Coop]

I have Bess in a PPR and the problem is that you know what you are going to get from him. No growth potential. So if you are in a keeper/auction/dynasty format - he shouldn't crack your lineup a bunch outside of a few injuries and bye weeks.

I personally would rather have a guy like E.Sanders, A.Benn or another young guy that will step into a starting role at some point that could be a top-20 WR, than a guy that I know will be 25-40 for the next few years....

At one point this season, Bess was out Welkering Wess Welker. Especially in a PPR, Bess has as much, if not more potential thatn guys like Sanders and Benn. He is still only 24. I don't think you can put a cap on his potential, other than to say it is not elite (top 10).

I see bess as a slot guy, like amendola, that haas little chance to be the # 1 or# 2 guy on a team. Benn will be the # 2 in tampa most likely next year and sanders will have a shot as ward degrades....

Bess is the number two guy in Miami right now, just as Welker, Terry Glenn, and the other top slot guys are/were. Don't write off "slot guys" very especially in PPR. If you value Sanders and Benn because of how you evaluated them in college, I don't think anyone can blame you for doing that. But if you are assuming that they will eventually be more valuable than Bess because of Bess' size, I think you are making a very big mistake.

 

[renesauz]

Are Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, Davone Bess and Mike Hart still worthy of being rostered in dynasty leagues or can they be dropped?

No idea of your league scoring but Bess is like the 33rd best WR in my league. How in the world would you drop him?

I have Bess in a PPR and the problem is that you know what you are going to get from him. No growth potential. So if you are in a keeper/auction/dynasty format - he shouldn't crack your lineup a bunch outside of a few injuries and bye weeks. I personally would rather have a guy like E.Sanders, A.Benn or another young guy that will step into a starting role at some point that could be a top-20 WR, than a guy that I know will be 25-40 for the next few years....

This is absolutely true for your end-of bench guys. IE: There's no sense carrying 3 or 4 guys like Bess on your roster. BUT...and this is a huge but....guys like Bess are typically undervalued in dynasty. You NEED one or two guys you can COUNT ON for byes and injuries. The #33 WR will crack a GOOD starting lineup 4 or 5 times a year (and an average one most every week)...that's far too often to dismiss for a higher upside longshot. Starting the #55 ranked (real points) young upside stud in his place could cost a win or two...and a playoff berth.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Bess is the number two guy in Miami right now, just as Welker, Terry Glenn, and the other top slot guys are/were. Don't write off "slot guys" very especially in PPR. If you value Sanders and Benn because of how you evaluated them in college, I don't think anyone can blame you for doing that. But if you are assuming that they will eventually be more valuable than Bess because of Bess' size, I think you are making a very big mistake.

It's not size, it's speed. Bess and Sanders are about the same size, but Bess' 40 time was 4.6+. It was why he wasn't drafted.

 

[Concept Coop]

This is absolutely true for your end-of bench guys. IE: There's no sense carrying 3 or 4 guys like Bess on your roster. BUT...and this is a huge but....guys like Bess are typically undervalued in dynasty. You NEED one or two guys you can COUNT ON for byes and injuries. The #33 WR will crack a GOOD starting lineup 4 or 5 times a year (and an average one most every week)...that's far too often to dismiss for a higher upside longshot. Starting the #55 ranked (real points) young upside stud in his place could cost a win or two...and a playoff berth.

I'll take it a step further, and say this: Bess has always been a high target/catch guy. Having Brandon Marshall on the other side was really helping him. We saw what poor QB play did to Marshall, and I think it is fair to assume it also hurt Bess. Once that gets corrected, I think Bess puts up even better numbers than he has been. In other words, I see no reason to assume that the #55 guys some value over Bess because the are rookies, have higher upside than Bess, again, especially in PPR.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Are Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, Davone Bess and Mike Hart still worthy of being rostered in dynasty leagues or can they be dropped?

No idea of your league scoring but Bess is like the 33rd best WR in my league. How in the world would you drop him?

I have Bess in a PPR and the problem is that you know what you are going to get from him. No growth potential. So if you are in a keeper/auction/dynasty format - he shouldn't crack your lineup a bunch outside of a few injuries and bye weeks. I personally would rather have a guy like E.Sanders, A.Benn or another young guy that will step into a starting role at some point that could be a top-20 WR, than a guy that I know will be 25-40 for the next few years....

I see what you are saying. I guess it depends on your philosophy and roster makeup (as do most of the things we discuss here, lol). I like the idea of a solid lower WR3/higher WR4 for bye weeks and injuries. It allows me to go boom/bust on some other WR roster spots. But if you mainly have solid guys like Bess, or if you like to go Boom/Bust a lot, I could see dropping him for someone like Benn or Sanders.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Are Louis Murphy, Jacoby Jones, Davone Bess and Mike Hart still worthy of being rostered in dynasty leagues or can they be dropped?

No idea of your league scoring but Bess is like the 33rd best WR in my league. How in the world would you drop him?

I have Bess in a PPR and the problem is that you know what you are going to get from him. No growth potential. So if you are in a keeper/auction/dynasty format - he shouldn't crack your lineup a bunch outside of a few injuries and bye weeks. I personally would rather have a guy like E.Sanders, A.Benn or another young guy that will step into a starting role at some point that could be a top-20 WR, than a guy that I know will be 25-40 for the next few years....

This is absolutely true for your end-of bench guys. IE: There's no sense carrying 3 or 4 guys like Bess on your roster. BUT...and this is a huge but....guys like Bess are typically undervalued in dynasty. You NEED one or two guys you can COUNT ON for byes and injuries. The #33 WR will crack a GOOD starting lineup 4 or 5 times a year (and an average one most every week)...that's far too often to dismiss for a higher upside longshot. Starting the #55 ranked (real points) young upside stud in his place could cost a win or two...and a playoff berth.

Well said. A couple of guys like that are very nice to have.

 

[Concept Coop]

Bess is the number two guy in Miami right now, just as Welker, Terry Glenn, and the other top slot guys are/were. Don't write off "slot guys" very especially in PPR. If you value Sanders and Benn because of how you evaluated them in college, I don't think anyone can blame you for doing that. But if you are assuming that they will eventually be more valuable than Bess because of Bess' size, I think you are making a very big mistake.

It's not size, it's speed. Bess and Sanders are about the same size, but Bess' 40 time was 4.6+. It was why he wasn't drafted.

If you've watched him play, you will have seen that he relies very little on straight-line track speed. He is very quick and uses said quickness to get open. He is the kind of guy that you could count on to get you 5-6 points on catches alone in PPR leagues, if his situation improves. That is huge. Also, Bess is plenty fast. He didn't get drafted becuase he got bad info and came out early when he had no businsess doing so. If he would have stayed at HI for another year, he would have been drafted. 40 times are overrated and pro scouts know that. And those that passed on him, were very clearly wrong, so I don't know why the hypothetical reasoning behind it is relevant. Put Bess with a Payton Manning or Tom Brady and watch out. He would be a more consistant, higher scoring option than Garcon. I don't know how far away he is from Collie, honestly.

 

[footballguy#1]

SSOG, you updating your ranking anytime soon? Specifically looking at WR and some of the changes/trends that have occurred in the last month or two.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Bess is the number two guy in Miami right now, just as Welker, Terry Glenn, and the other top slot guys are/were. Don't write off "slot guys" very especially in PPR. If you value Sanders and Benn because of how you evaluated them in college, I don't think anyone can blame you for doing that. But if you are assuming that they will eventually be more valuable than Bess because of Bess' size, I think you are making a very big mistake.

It's not size, it's speed. Bess and Sanders are about the same size, but Bess' 40 time was 4.6+. It was why he wasn't drafted.

If you've watched him play, you will have seen that he relies very little on straight-line track speed. He is very quick and uses said quickness to get open. He is the kind of guy that you could count on to get you 5-6 points on catches alone in PPR leagues, if his situation improves. That is huge. Also, Bess is plenty fast. He didn't get drafted becuase he got bad info and came out early when he had no businsess doing so. If he would have stayed at HI for another year, he would have been drafted. 40 times are overrated and pro scouts know that. And those that passed on him, were very clearly wrong, so I don't know why the hypothetical reasoning behind it is relevant. Put Bess with a Payton Manning or Tom Brady and watch out. He would be a more consistant, higher scoring option than Garcon. I don't know how far away he is from Collie, honestly.

Blair White isn't that far from Collie and he is already on the team. Garcon fills a role that the other WRs don't. Adding Bess to that roster does nothing except keep White off the field. Also, I don't think he's any better than Edelman. Sanders came out early, from a R&S offense, and got drafted in the 3rd. Because he had a solid 40 time. It was wrong for all 32 teams to pass 7 times on Bess, but the reason they passed is the same reason his upside is limited. The same reason Hartline was the starter at the beginning of the year, even after Bess had solid 08 and 09 seasons.

He is plenty quick, but he isn't plenty fast. He is what he is and that's all that he is. If you're implying he would be better in a better situation, I think the only situations that would be better for him would be StL, Hou, Was. He is in a pretty favorable situation - team has no ability to evaluate WRs so he keeps getting starts over dredge like Hartline and Patrick Turner.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Blair White isn't that far from Collie and he is already on the team.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Blair White isn't that far from Collie and he is already on the team.

If Collie is out, White will get stats. You can on Collie all you want, but White has enough to fill that role.